Is It All Over?

Baltic Dry Index. 1309 -14     Brent Crude 77.55

“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”

Jesse Livermore

This morning, with just two days left to dress up the month-end close, the quarter’s close, and the half year close, the big question in everyone’s mind is, is it all over?

Well it is all over for Germany’s chance of retaining the World Cup, as they crashed out yesterday 2-0 to lowly Korea, who also crashed out despite their unexpected win. The German football team might have to seek asylum now in Russia. But it’s far from over in the Great Global Trump Trade War, with Washington continuing to send out mixed signals, adding to rising confusion about the wisdom of staying invested in over priced stocks.

So, will it be dress up Thursday and Friday in stocks, ahead of what promises to be an unnerving Trumpian July, or did yesterday’s stock market action signal the start of a summer rout?

While the jury’s still out, it’s starting to look more and more like January was the top in market mania stocks. Trade wars have an uncanny way of sinking most boats.

Below, why “is it all over” is the question of the day. Even worse, what happens next if it is? Will Deutsche Bank turn into the next Lehman?

“It has always been my experience that I never benefited much from a move if I did not get in at somewhere near the beginning of that move.”

Jesse Livermore, How to Trade In Stocks

June 28, 2018 / 2:26 AM

Asian shares flirt with nine-month low on mounting trade war fears

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks slumped to nine-month lows on Thursday on growing worries the U.S. administration’s approach to trade is harming global economic growth even as it appeared to be modifying its approach to curb Chinese investments in U.S. technology firms.

U.S. oil prices hit a 3-1/2-year high as plunging U.S. crude stockpiles compounded supply worries in a market already uncertain about Libyan exports, a production disruption in Canada and Washington’s demands that importers stop buying Iranian crude.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.25 percent to a nine-month low in early trade while Japan’s Nikkei shed 0.30 percent.

The U.S. S&P 500 lost 0.60 percent on Wednesday to one-month closing low.

MSCI’s broadest gauge of the world’s stock markets fell to its lowest level in almost three months, on course to post its fourth month of loss in the last five. Its emerging market index hit the weakest level since mid-August.

In China, the markets have taken a battering as worries about a wobbly yuan and the trade spat with the United States have left investors bracing for a rocky final six months of the year.

----Trump said on Wednesday he will use a strengthened national security review process to thwart Chinese acquisitions of sensitive American technologies, a softer approach than imposing China-specific investment restrictions.

Although that lifted U.S. stocks initially, optimism quickly evaporated after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Trump’s announced plan did not indicate a softened stance on China.

Markets remain anxious about Trump’s hard line approach to get better trade deals, with early signs his stance may not only be backfiring but also hurting the global economy.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-flirt-with-nine-month-low-on-mounting-trade-war-fears-idUKKBN1JO05P

The Dow and S&P 500 blow their biggest intraday gain since February

By Mark DeCambre  Published: June 27, 2018 5:13 p.m. ET

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday relinquished its biggest point gain since February, as selling in shares of bank and technology-and-internet companies offset gains in the resurgent energy sector.

The Dow DJIA, -0.68% ended the session off 165.52 points, or 0.7%, at 24,117.59, after the blue-chip gauge touched an intraday high up 285.91 points. That retreat represents the largest turnaround lower for the Dow since Feb. 21, when the gauge rose 303.24 points to end down 166.97 points, according to WSJ Market Data Group. The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.86%  also marked its largest blown lead since February, after it peaked up 0.85%, but finished the session down 0.9% at 2,699, ending below a psychological, round-number level at 2,700 for the broad-market index.

Wednesday’s reversal comes as trade-related worries have created anxieties among investors fearful that the current tit-for-tat spat between the U.S. and its trade partners China and the European Union morph into a trade war that damages global economies.

An early burst higher in the session, partly underpinned by a White House statement that appeared to imply a more moderated approach by President Donald Trump to curb Chinese investments in U.S. technology companies, gave way to selling.

The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -1.54% given the focus on tech, saw a more pronounced tumble on the day, off 1.5% at 7,445.08.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-and-sp-500-blow-their-biggest-intraday-gain-since-february-2018-06-27

June 28, 2018 / 3:36 AM

China says carefully monitoring U.S. policies on inbound investments

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday it would carefully monitor U.S. policies on inbound investments, stressing that the country opposes using national security as grounds to restrict foreign investments.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will use a strengthened national security review process to thwart Chinese acquisitions of sensitive American technologies, a softer approach than imposing China-specific investment restrictions.

The U.S. Treasury Department has recommended that Trump use the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), whose authority would be enhanced by new legislation in Congress, to control investment deals. The legislation expands the scope of transactions reviewed by the interagency panel to address security concerns, Trump said.

“China will closely monitor the legislation process and evaluate its potential impact on Chinese companies,” Chinese commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters in a regular briefing in Beijing.

“China does not agree with (the U.S.) tightening foreign investment conditions using national security as reasons,” he said.

The proposed investment restrictions are part of the Trump administration’s efforts to pressure Beijing into making major changes to its trade, technology transfer and industrial subsidy policies after U.S. complaints that China has unfairly acquired American intellectual property through joint venture requirements, unfair licensing and strategic acquisitions of U.S. tech firms.

Commerce ministry’s Gao also said cooperation between China and Europe would bring a “warm current” to the global economy as both parties strongly opposes unilateralism and protectionism.

On Monday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at a joint news conference with French prime minister Edouard Philippe that he believed frictions and disputes between China and the United States could be resolved via talks.

“There are no winners from Fighting a trade war,” he told reporters.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china-trade/china-says-carefully-monitoring-u-s-policies-on-inbound-investments-idUKKBN1JO08I?il=0

June 27, 2018 / 2:44 PM

Automakers warn U.S. tariffs will cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, hike prices

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two major auto trade groups on Wednesday warned the Trump administration that imposing up to 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles would cost hundreds of thousands of auto jobs, dramatically hike prices on vehicles and threaten industry spending on self-driving cars.

A coalition representing major foreign automakers including Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T), Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE), BMW AG (BMWG.DE), and Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS), said the tariffs would harm automakers and U.S. consumers. The administration in May launched an investigation into whether imported vehicles pose a national security threat and President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to quickly impose tariffs.

“The greatest threat to the U.S. automotive industry at this time is the possibility the administration will impose duties on imports in connection with this investigation,” wrote the Association of Global Automakers representing major foreign automakers. “Such duties would raise prices for American consumers, limit their choices, and suppress sales and U.S. production of vehicles.”

The group added: “Rather than creating jobs, these tariffs would result in the loss of hundreds of thousands of American jobs producing and selling cars, SUVs, trucks and auto parts.”

----The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, representing General Motors Co (GM.N), Ford Motor Co (F.N), Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE), Toyota and others, urged the administration in separate comments filed Wednesday not to go forward.

“We believe the resulting impact of tariffs on imported vehicles and vehicle components will ultimately harm U.S. economic security and weaken our national security,” the group wrote, calling the tariffs a “mistake” and adding imposing them “could very well set a dangerous precedent that other nations could use to protect their local market from foreign competition.”

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-autos/automakers-warn-u-s-tariffs-will-cost-hundreds-of-thousands-of-jobs-hike-prices-idUKKBN1JN1TL

US markets at peak with bull run at tipping point, warn economists

Tim Wallace  Tom Rees  26 June 2018 • 7:25pm

The nine-year bull run in financial markets could be at an end as higher interest rates, a trade war, falling profits, eurozone imbalances and a potential US recession finally tip markets from boom to bust, economists have warned.

US markets are now at their peak and have no further to run, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe.

As a result they recommend investors slash exposure to risky assets and instead buy gold, US treasuries and the dollar. This bear market will only come to an end when the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates and eases policy once more, which they believe will happen when sufficient, weak economic data appear.

More

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/26/barrage-threats-economy-set-tip-bull-run-bear-market-nine-year/?WT.mc_id=e_DM788971&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Cit_New_AEM_Daily&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Cit_New_AEM_Daily_2018_06_27&utm_campaign=DM788971

Trump's Trade War Pushes China Closer to Old Foe India

By Karthikeyan Sundaram and Iain Marlow

27 June 2018, 23:00 GMT+1 Updated on 28 June 2018, 04:47 GMT+1

China has lowered import barriers on some Indian goods

Questions remain over key flashpoints, such as border disputes

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/trump-s-trade-war-pushes-china-closer-to-old-foe-india

Merkel Says ‘All of Us Are Very Sad’ About Germany’s World Cup Loss

By Arne Delfs  27 June 2018, 19:11 GMT+1

• Bizarre moment as German chancellor talks soccer with robot
• Long string of past soccer trophies isn’t a real consolation

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/merkel-says-all-of-us-are-very-sad-about-german-world-cup-exit

“To learn that a man can make foolish plays for no reason whatever was a valuable lesson. It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.”

Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

China again. Two can play by Trump rules i.e. none.

June 27, 2018 / 7:07 AM

Trade war or not, China Inc already reining in American brands

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - As Beijing and Washington veer towards a full-blown trade war, American brands in China face what may be an even bigger threat: local rivals armed with innovative products and the Chinese government’s blessing.

American household names like Apple (AAPL.O), Starbucks (SBUX.O) and Procter & Gamble’s (PG.N) Pampers are seeing their dominance challenged, a potential threat to the hundreds of billions of dollars U.S. firms make in China.

According to an analysis of data from Bain and Kantar, local brands snatched almost three-quarters of China’s 639 billion yuan ($97 billion) market for fast-moving consumer goods - a category that includes items like soft drinks and shampoo - last year, up from two-thirds in 2013.

The data, shared with Reuters, shows that U.S. products like Pampers, Colgate (CL.N) toothpaste and Mead Johnson infant formula saw their market share drop around 10 percentage points in the past five years. The data was based on a survey of 40,000 urban households.

At the same time, savvy Chinese brands like SeeYoung, offering a popular silicon-free shampoo, and Pechoin, a maker of skincare products that plays up local ingredients, gained rapidly.

“Local competition is now extremely high on the agenda of foreign firms in China,” said Bruno Lannes, Shanghai-based partner with Bain & Co, the consultancy that co-authored the report.

“In order to win in China now they need to beat not just traditional competitors,” he said. “But they need to win against local companies that are faster and more innovative than they had realized.”

American brands have long enjoyed a vaunted status in China. U.S. fast food, beverages and coffee chains are ubiquitous in China’s cities, while consumers lap up U.S.-branded infant formula, designer jeans, cars and smartphones.

That dominance, however, is threatened by China’s push to bolster domestic brands by creating champions in certain categories and weeding out weaker players to improve quality.

Brewing trade tensions could exacerbate this slippage, threatening more than $180 billion in sales by U.S. firms in China last year, according to an analysis of 121 U.S.-listed American firms that broke out data for China sales in the most recent fiscal year.

The total is likely far higher as many U.S. firms with a major China presence - including Starbucks, McDonald’s (MCD.N) and Walmart (WMT.N) - don’t break out China sales.

Apple made $44.8 billion in China in the last fiscal year, P&G around $5.2 billion and the sports apparel maker Nike (NKE.N) $4.2 billion.

A trade war now looks more likely after talks in Beijing and Washington failed to defuse grating issues between the two countries over a trade imbalance, technology transfers and barriers that firms face doing business in China.

----Chinese brands are getting increasingly confident about taking on overseas brands, including in high-tech sectors.

In China’s auto market, the world’s largest, domestic car brands - helped by supportive policies - have sneaked up on foreign brands over the past five years, challenging Ford Motor Co (F.N), General Motors Co (GM.N), and the electric carmaker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O).

The government’s promotion of electric vehicles as a key industry has lured dozens of new Chinese competitors to enter the market.

Ian Zhu, a partner at NIO Capital, the investment affiliate of NIO, a Chinese electric vehicle start-up, said a shift to smart, electric and autonomous cars would bolster local brands as the vehicles increasingly become entertainment and work spaces rather than just a means of transport.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-brands/trade-war-or-not-china-inc-already-reining-in-american-brands-idUSKBN1JN0KW

“I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.”

Jesse Livermore

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards?

Siemens Tests Ammonia as a Form of Energy Storage for Renewables

The company has opened a novel new facility to study the efficiency of converting electricity to hydrogen, and then to ammonia, and back.

Jason Deign June 27, 2018

The German industrial giant Siemens is investigating the use of ammonia as a way to store and transport hydrogen in energy systems with high penetration of renewables. 

The company this month opened a £1.5 million ($2 million) proof-of-concept plant in Harwell, Oxfordshire, U.K. to test the efficiency of converting electricity to hydrogen, and then to ammonia, and then back.

The plant, funded one-third by Siemens and two-thirds by government agency Innovate U.K., is thought to be the first of its kind in the world. 

The U.K. Science and Technology Facilities Council, University of Oxford and Cardiff University are also attached to the project, which includes a wind turbine, a nitrogen generator, a water electrolysis system, a Haber-Bosch reactor and a 30-kilowatt electric genset. 

Ian Wilkinson, program manager for the project within Siemens, told GTM that the research into ammonia was complementary to Siemens’ work on other energy storage technologies, such as batteries. 

But batteries are primarily useful for electricity, which in the U.K. only accounts for around a quarter of all energy use, he said. “Chemical fuels have a [use case], including energy storage of electricity but also beyond it,” he said. 

“It’s pretty apparent that we will need a range of energy storage solutions to decarbonize our electricity generation," Wilkinson added. "I think a lot of different storage technologies will be required.”

For short-term, low-capacity applications, it is likely that batteries would be the dominant storage technology, he said. 

But where longer-duration, large-scale storage is needed, ammonia could play a role, particularly if the energy has to be transported from one place to another or stored in a location devoid of hills for pumped hydro or caves for compressed air. 

“For big-capacity, long-duration storage, chemical fuels are hard to beat,” Wilkinson said. “Of course, we use chemical fuels a lot today, and they are ubiquitous for a reason. It’s just that all of our fuels right now are fossil-based.”

Ammonia has similar storage and transportation characteristics to fossil fuels but without the potential to release carbon into the atmosphere, he noted. Hydrogen, which is the prime focus of current non-carbon chemical fuel efforts, is not so easy to store or move around.

Another point in ammonia’s favor is that the gas is already manufactured, stored and transported at industrial scale, so it is a familiar and low-cost compound to handle.

The boiling point of the gas is -33 degrees Celsius, so although it needs to be kept cold when in a liquid state, the level of refrigeration necessary is not excessive.

The ammonia industry produced around 140 million metric tons of the compound worldwide in 2016, according to the United States Geological Survey.

More

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/siemens-ammonia-hydrogen-energy-storage#gs.taWxDOk

Harwell, in Oxfordshire, just south of scenic Abingdon on the River Thames, is just a pretty 24 miles away from me, via the scenic route via Empress Matilda’s stronghold of Wallingford, as she battled with rival King Stephen, “when Christ and his saints were asleep”, according to the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.

https://www.historyextra.com/period/medieval/where-history-happened-stephen-and-matilda/

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May.

DJIA: 24,416 +201 Down. NASDAQ: 7,442 +276 Down. SP500: 2,705 +180 Down.

All three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April and May. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 

Trade War Wobbles. N. America Swings Left.

Baltic Dry Index. 1323 -10     Brent Crude 76.59

"Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible - forms which only the precious metals provide."

Elgin Groseclose

While there was nothing new on the trade war front yesterday, the next key date is July 6^th, the growing trade war continues to drag on global markets. Adding to the drag, Uncle Scam is allegedly pressuring “allies,” yes those same allies under the cosh of Trump’s trade war, to stop importing Iranian oil. It’s a funny old world in Trump Year Two. Oil prices rose as a result, adding to the drag on all but oil stocks.

In North America, Mexico is heading for a far left government on Sunday, one promising immediate confrontation with Trump’s USA. While in the USA itself, the voters seem to be following Europe and splitting between the far left and the Trumpian right. Time to add to holdings of fully paid up physical gold and silver, preferably held out of the reach of the larcenous left, should they gain power in the USA after the November mid-term elections.

Below, another day filled with uncertainty.

"Gold bears the confidence of the world's millions, who value it far above the promises of politicians, far above the unbacked paper issued by governments as money substitutes. It has been that way through all recorded history. There is no reason to believe it will lose the confidence of people in the future."

Oakley R. Bramble

June 27, 2018 / 1:26 AM

Asia shares hobbled by trade fears, oil extends gains

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets were under pressure on Wednesday as weakness in Chinese stocks and the yuan weighed on sentiment in the region, while oil climbed as the United States pressured allies to stop buying Iranian crude.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS lost another 0.3 percent after touching a two-year trough on Tuesday.

Chinese blue chips .CSI300 eased 0.4 percent to be a whisker above 13-month lows as a settlement of Sino-U.S. tensions remained a distant prospect.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 had been faring better but soon succumbed to risk aversion and fell 0.5 percent.

The fragile mood overshadowed gains in energy stocks made after news broke that Washington was pushing allies to halt imports of Iranian crude.

U.S. crude CLc1 added 18 cents to $70.71, having surged 3.6 percent overnight, while Brent LCOc1 climbed 17 cents to $76.48 a barrel.

The jump in oil boosted the Wall Street energy sector 1.4 percent .SPNY, making it the biggest gainer on the S&P 500.

But the S&P .SPX still only managed to add 0.22 percent overall, while the Dow .DJI rose 0.12 percent and the Nasdaq .IXIC was up 0.39 percent.

Confusion remained the watchword with U.S. trade policy.

The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill on Tuesday to tighten foreign investment rules, spurred by bipartisan concerns about Chinese bids to acquire sophisticated U.S. technology.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asia-shares-hobbled-by-trade-fears-oil-extends-gains-idUKKBN1JN012

June 27, 2018 / 4:06 AM

Nikkei drops as ex-dividend trade pressures; airlines, shippers hit by rising oil

TOKYO, June 27 (Reuters) - Japan’s Nikkei share average dropped on Wednesday morning after higher oil prices hurt airlines and shippers, while companies’ going ex-dividend added to the market’s broader weakness.

The Nikkei fell 0.5 percent to 22,226.54 in mid-morning trade.

Companies whose business years end in December will go ex-dividend on Wednesday, after which investors will no longer qualify for the latest dividend payout.

Market participants estimated the effect of the resulting adjustment to prices would take 30 points off the Nikkei benchmark index.

Among Nikkei companies going ex-dividend on Wednesday are Japan Tobacco, Canon and Bridgestone which stumbled 4.0 percent, 3.7 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.

Analysts said that investors remain cautious against spiralling global trade tensions between the United States and its trade partners, which has dented the market in the past week.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-midday/nikkei-drops-as-ex-dividend-trade-pressures-airlines-shippers-hit-by-rising-oil-idUKL4N1TT1NN

Exporters in China’s manufacturing heartland brace for impact of US tariffs

Firms expecting to be hit directly by the duties may raise prices for American buyers, ship products via another country or even relocate their operations

PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 26 June, 2018, 6:02am UPDATED : Tuesday, 26 June, 2018, 6:14pm

Export-oriented businesses in China’s manufacturing heartland Guangdong say they are bracing for pain after the United States escalated trade tensions with the country.

With Washington due to start imposing 25 per cent tariffs on the first batch of Chinese products next week, some exporters are worried that it could erode their price advantage, and that orders from their US clients will dry up, according to manufacturers and analysts.

Those who will be hit directly by the duties are scrambling to find ways to manage the impact, including raising prices for US buyers, shipping products to another country before sending them to the US, and even relocating operations to other countries such as India, Vietnam and Mexico, they said.

US President Donald Trump on June 15 said the US would slap 25 per cent tariffs on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods, with the first wave covering 818 products worth US$34 billion taking effect on July 6. China immediately retaliated, imposing 25 per cent duties on US$50 billion worth of US goods, saying its tariffs on a list of 545 US goods worth US$34 billion would also begin on July 6.

While China’s export machine as a whole should be able to absorb the blow since it will only affect a small proportion of shipments, the tariffs could be disastrous for individual companies that rely on the US market for survival.

Gloria Luo, sales manager at a Guangdong-based manufacturer of automotive parts and industrial moulds, said her company would be hit hard by Trump’s measures, since 40 per cent of its sales are to the US and their products are on the list of those to be targeted.

Luo, who did not want her company identified, said they made moulds for American clients that would be used by companies like General Motors because “the price differential between most US-made automotive moulds and our products is about 30 per cent”.

More

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2152410/exporters-chinas-manufacturing-heartland-brace-impact-us-tariffs?aid=197778625&sc_src=email_2277570&sc_llid=16124&sc_lid=152773176&sc_uid=164ZJlR5S5&utm_source=emarsys&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GME-O-TradeWar-Jun18&utm_content=row-180626

June 27, 2018 / 3:00 AM

China's solid industrial profits tamp trade war worries for now

BEIJING (Reuters) - Profits at China’s industrial firms rose sharply in May, maintaining the previous month’s sizzling pace despite signs of slowing momentum in the world’s second-largest economy and an intensifying trade spat with the United States.

Beijing is trying to walk a tightrope between supporting economic growth and tamping down financial risks, with policymakers freeing up more funds for lending by cutting required reserve levels for banks twice since April.

The latest cut came on Sunday as authorities moved fast to temper any potential drag on growth from the heated Sino-U.S. trade dispute.

Industrial profits rose 21.1 percent to 607.1 billion yuan (69.57 billion pounds) in May, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday, compared to 21.9 percent growth in April.

For the first five months, industrial firms notched up profits of 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.5 percent from a year earlier, versus a 15 percent increase in the January-April period.

----Some analysts say the strong profit growth reflects a recovery in output from an easing in a long-running crackdown on pollution that had shuttered production at many factories.

“We would argue that’s (profit growth) mostly a recovery from the pollution crackdown, which in our figures resulted in quite a significant slowdown in industrial production during the winter,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics.

“If we’re right then there’s no reason to expect that pick up to be sustained. In our view, the more medium term outlook is still not great.”

----But activity in some parts of the economy including infrastructure investment and industrial output point to softening economic growth.

While industrial commodity prices have been strong this year, the intensifying trade dispute between Beijing and Washington has rattled China’s commodity markets this month as both sides threatened new import tariffs.

The war against pollution, with government-ordered suspension of production for steel, cement, coal-fired power plans and petrochemical makers in recent months also add to the challenge for industrial producers ahead.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-industrial-profits/chinas-solid-industrial-profits-tamp-trade-war-worries-for-now-idUKKBN1JN083

Finally, while the EUSSR is increasingly driven to the far left and hard right, as politics as usual doesn’t deliver and crumbles, is this about to happen in the world’s leading debtor, and Mexico, too? Venezuela here we come. How’s that wall coming along? Americans now have a reason to want to own some gold.

Rep. Joe Crowley suffers shocking defeat in New York Democratic primary

By Nolan Hicks  Published: June 26, 2018 11:14 p.m. ET

Longtime lawmaker and the head of the Queens Democratic machine, Rep. Joe Crowley, lost his bid for re-election in a stunning upset to 28-year-old political newcomer and liberal activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Ocasio-Cortez, who identifies as a Democratic socialist, led Crowley by 15 percentage points — 57% to his 42% — with 78% of the 14th Congressional District’s precincts reporting.

Both the Associated Press and New York 1 project that Ocasio-Cortez has an insurmountable lead.

Crowley’s defeat is a political earthquake in New York City politics where political machines dominate low-turnout elections and incumbents often go unchallenged.

Crowley — a high-ranking house member who had been considered a contender to take over leadership from Rep. Nancy Pelosi — was no exception to that rule. First elected to Congress in 1998, Ocasio-Cortez was the first primary challenge he had faced in 14 years.

He is the first Democratic congressperson to lose re-election in a primary since Rep. Stephen Solarz 1992. And Solarz was running for essentially a new seat after redistricting dismantled his longtime district.

Ocasio-Cortez was endorsed by the New York City Democratic Socialists of America and recently told Vogue she was a member of the group because: “When we talk about the word socialism, I think what it really means is just democratic participation in our economic dignity, and our economic, social, and racial dignity.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rep-joe-crowley-suffers-shocking-defeat-in-new-york-democratic-primary-2018-06-26

June 27, 2018 / 6:03 AM

Exclusive: Mexican leftist's lead edges higher before Sunday presidential vote

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador widened his lead slightly to 26 percentage points ahead of the country’s election on Sunday, according to a new poll.

Lopez Obrador, who has campaigned on ending corruption and bringing peace to a country scarred by record levels of gangland violence, had 45 percent of the vote, compared to 19 percent for his nearest rival, Ricardo Anaya, who slipped by one point, the survey by Mexican pollster Parametria showed.

In third place, Jose Antonio Meade, the ruling party candidate, edged one point higher to 15 percent.

The poll conducted from June 20-25 was based on in-person interviews with 1,000 voters and had a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mexico-election-poll-exclusive/exclusive-mexican-leftists-lead-edges-higher-before-sunday-presidential-vote-idUKKBN1JN0GR?il=0

The Supremes Give Trump Everything He’s Wanted

And the court’s travel-ban decision is a shame that will last for decades.

by Mark Gongloff

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-26/the-supreme-court-gives-trump-his-travel-ban-jiw7t4rh

Judge Orders U.S. to Reunite Immigrant Children and Parents

By Edvard Pettersson and Erik Larson

27 June 2018, 05:17 GMT+1 Updated on 27 June 2018, 06:17 GMT+1

U.S. given two weeks to return youngest children to families

Judge says order is needed in spite of Trump’s executive order

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/judge-orders-u-s-to-reunite-immigrant-children-and-parents

"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."

William F. Rickenbacker

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, why Trump thinks he will win.

Trump: President Xi, is there anything I can do for you.

Xi: Yes, stand a little out of my sun.

With apologies to Diogenes.

Why Trump thinks he can win a drawn-out fight over trade with other countries

By Jeffry Bartash  Published: June 25, 2018 2:18 p.m. ET

U.S. economy doing better than most of the rest of the world

Donald Trump has been spoiling for a fight over what he sees as unfair trade for a long time -— and a strong U.S. economy gives him leeway to carry on the battle longer than other countries.

The many critics of the president’s trade strategy figured he would back down before tariffs and other U.S. sanctions caused much damage, especially ahead of critical U.S. elections in the fall. What they weren’t counting on was the best economy in years giving a stubborn president more elbow room.

The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 3.7% annual clip in the second quarter, putting it on pace to potentially top 3% growth this year for the first time since 2005.

The Trump tax cuts, higher government spending, an ultralow unemployment rate and the biggest increase in business investment in several years are propelling the economy forward.

“The economy is doing well. You don’t want to see it happen, but there are a lot of worse times [a trade fight] could happen,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.

By contrast, the Canadian economy is growing at its weakest rate in two years, and Europe has suffered a surprising slowdown. Both could post sub-2% growth in 2018. China, for its part, is enduring a bear market in stocks tied in part to anxiety over trade.

The U.S. economy is more shielded because so much of what takes place involves Americans selling and buying from other Americans. Exports represent about 12% of the American economy vs. nearly 20% for China, one-third for Canada and almost 50% for Germany.

“Nobody wins in a trade war, but the U.S. is much, much less dependent on exports as a percentage of our economy,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago. “The strategy is very clear. They are willing to go a long way with the tariffs because they feel our relative pain will be lower than it will be for other countries.”

----How long can Trump stick to his guns?

Most economists see little damage to the U.S. in the short run. A protracted fight over trade could cost GDP several tenths of a percentage point, but that’s not a huge deal. Whether the U.S. grows 3% in 2018 or 2.8% doesn’t mean much in the big picture.

Alternative view: Why a major trade war could mean a ‘full-blown recession’

To be sure, some industries would lose out, and consumers and businesses might pay more for some materials or goods affected by U.S. tariffs or foreign retaliation.

Perhaps the biggest cost would be to the momentum generated by Trump’s economic policies. His tax cuts and an aggressive rollback of regulations pushed surveys of consumers and businesses earlier this year to the highest levels in almost two decades.

More

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-trump-thinks-he-can-win-a-drawn-out-fight-over-trade-with-other-countries-2018-06-25

A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never! Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they quit! The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!

President Trump. 1:17 PM - Jun 26, 2018

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards?

Solar cells combining silicon with perovskite have achieved record efficiency of 25.2 percent

Date: June 11, 2018

Source: Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Summary: Researchers have combined silicon- and perovskite-based solar cells. The resulting efficiency of 25.2 percent is a record for this type of tandem cell. Their innovative yet simple manufacturing technique could be directly integrated into existing production lines, and efficiency could eventually rise above 30 percent.

In the field of photovoltaic technologies, silicon-based solar cells make up 90% of the market. In terms of cost, stability and efficiency (20-22% for a typical solar cell on the market), they are well ahead of the competition.

However, after decades of research and investment, silicon-based solar cells are now close to their maximum theoretical efficiency. As a result, new concepts are required to achieve a long-term reduction in solar electricity prices and allow photovoltaic technology to become a more widely adopted way of generating power.

One solution is to place two different types of solar cells on top of each other to maximize the conversion of light rays into electrical power. These "double-junction" cells are being widely researched in the scientific community, but are expensive to make. Now research teams in Neuchâtel -- from EPFL's Photovoltaics Laboratory and the CSEM PV-center -- have developed an economically competitive solution. They have integrated a perovskite cell directly on top of a standard silicon-based cell, obtaining a record efficiency of 25.2%. Their production method is promising, because it would add only a few extra steps to the current silicon-cell production process, and the cost would be reasonable. Their research has been published in Nature Materials.

Perovskite's unique properties have prompted a great deal of research into its use in solar cells over the last few years. In the space of nine years, the efficiency of these cells has risen by a factor of six. Perovskite allows high conversion efficiency to be achieved at a potentially limited production cost.

In tandem cells, perovskite complements silicon: it converts blue and green light more efficiently, while silicon is better at converting red and infra-red light. "By combining the two materials, we can maximize the use of the solar spectrum and increase the amount of power generated. The calculations and work we have done show that a 30% efficiency should soon be possible," say the study's main authors Florent Sahli and Jérémie Werner.

More

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180611133535.htm

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F. A. von Hayek

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May.

DJIA: 24,416 +201 Down. NASDAQ: 7,442 +276 Down. SP500: 2,705 +180 Down.

All three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April and May. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal.