Saturday, 2 November 2024

Special Update 02/11/2024 US Stocks, Fantasy and Rigging. E-Day +3.

Baltic Dry Index. 1378 -10          Brent Crude 73.10

Spot Gold 2737              U S 2 Year Yield 4.21 +0.05

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the Chancellor had “front loaded” calculations around additional spending in her Budget and it was likely that they “will in fact increase more quickly than supposedly planned after next year”. 

“I’m afraid this looks like the same silly games playing as we got used to with the last lot,” he said at the IFS’s breakdown of the Budget today. “Pencil in implausibly low spending increases for the future in order to make the fiscal arithmetic balance.” 

Reeves playing ‘same silly games’ as her predecessors, IFS says

In the US stock casinos ahead of next Tuesday’s US elections, fantasy and rigging.

In the real US economy, a dire US jobs report.  US Federal debt reaches almost 36 trillion!!!

Dow closes nearly 300 points higher to begin November as investors shake off weak jobs report: Live updates

Updated Fri, Nov 1 2024 5:15 PM EDT

Stocks rallied Friday to kick off November as Amazon led big technology stocks into the green and traders looked past a disappointing jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 288.73 points, or 0.69%, ending at 42,052.19. The S&P 500 advanced 0.41% to close at 5,728.80, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 18,239.92.

Amazon rallied 6.2% as strength in the cloud and advertising businesses propelled the e-commerce giant above Wall Street’s earnings expectations. Intel popped 7.8% after exceeding analysts’ forecasts for revenue and offering strong guidance. The two stocks helped lift investor sentiment following some notable earnings disappointments this week.

Megacap tech stocks are still “the tail wagging the dog,” said Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory. “You’re seeing some broadening, but it’s still such a massive component right now.”

Meanwhile, the jobs report released Friday showed the U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, far below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000. This marked the weakest level of jobs creation since December 2020. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, in line with estimates. However, traders were not reacting too much to the jobs figures, believing the dismal data was affected by hurricanes and a Boeing strike.

“Friday’s jobs report showed that the labor market decelerated quite significantly in October compared to September,” said Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth. “But this was a noisy number largely due to hurricanes and labor strikes, so it’s unlikely that this weakness is going to cause the Federal Reserve to pivot away from its expected 25 basis point rate cut at the November meeting.”

In addition to the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5., which has led to elevated volatility, investors are also looking toward the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Nov. 6-7.

The major averages are wrapping up a choppy week. The S&P 500 lost 1.4% in the period, while the Nasdaq slid 1.5%. Postearnings slumps in Microsoft and Meta Platforms weighed on the indexes. The 30-stock Dow inched down 0.2% week to date.

The strong start to November comes after a difficult October for the market. The 30-stock Dow pulled back 1.3% in October. The broad market index fell 1% in that time, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.5%.

Stock market news for November 1, 2024

Nvidia to join Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing rival chipmaker Intel

Published Fri, Nov 1 2024 5:22 PM EDT Updated Fri, Nov 1 2024 6:01 PM EDT

Nvidia is replacing rival chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a shakeup to the blue-chip index that reflects the boom in artificial intelligence and a major shift in the semiconductor industry.

Intel shares were down 1% in extended trading on Friday. Nvidia shares rose 1%.

The switch will take place on Nov. 8. Also, Sherwin Williams will replace Dow Inc. in the index, S&P Dow Jones said in a statement.

Nvidia shares have climbed over 170% so far in 2024 after jumping roughly 240% last year, as investors have rushed to get a piece of the AI chipmaker. Nvidia’s market cap has swelled to $3.3 trillion, second only to Apple among publicly traded companies.

Companies including Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon are purchasing Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs), such as the H100, in massive quantities to build clusters of computers for their AI work. Nvidia’s revenue has more than doubled in each of the past five quarters, and has at least tripled in three of them. The company has sginaled that demand for its next-generation AI GPU called Blackwell is “insane.”

With the addition of Nvidia, four of the six trillion-dollar tech companies are now in the index. The two not in the Dow are Alphabet and Meta.

While Nvidia has been soaring, Intel has been slumping. Long the dominant maker of PC chips, Intel has lost market share to Advanced Micro Devices and has made very little headway in AI. Intel shares have fallen by more than half this year as the company struggles with manufacturing challenges and new competition for its central processors.

Intel said in a filing this week that the board’s audit and finance committee approved cost and capital reduction activities, including lowering head count by 16,500 employees and reducing its real estate footprint. The job cuts were originally announced in August.

The Dow contains 30 components and is weighted by the share price of the individual stocks instead of total market value. Nvidia put itself in better position to join the index in May, when the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split. While doing nothing to its market cap, the move slashed the price of each share by 90%, allowing the company to become a part of the Dow without having too heavy a weighting.

The switch is the first change to the index since February, when Amazon replaced Walgreens Boots Alliance. Over the years, the Dow has been playing catchup in gaining exposure to the largest technology companies. The stocks in the index are chosen by a committee from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Nvidia to join Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel

Reality.

Super Micro’s 45% plunge this week wipes out stock’s gains for the year

Published Fri, Nov 1 2024 1:37 PM EDT Updated Fri, Nov 1 2024 4:15 PM EDT

Super Micro investors continued to rush the exits on Friday, pushing the stock down another 11% and bringing this week’s sell-off to 45%, after the data center company lost its second auditor in less than two years.

The company’s shares closed at $26.05, wiping out all of the gains for 2024. The stock had peaked at $118.81 in March, at which point it was up more than fourfold for the year. Earlier that month, S&P Dow Jones added the stock to the S&P 500, and Wall Street was rallying around the company’s growth, driven by sales of servers packed with Nvidia’s artificial intelligence processors.

Super Micro’s spectacular collapse since March has wiped out roughly $55 billion in market cap and left the company at risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq. On Wednesday, as the stock was in the midst of its second-worst day ever, Super Micro said it will provide a “business update” regarding its latest quarter on Tuesday, which is Election Day in the U.S.

The company’s recent challenges date back to August, when Super Micro said it would not file its annual report on time with the SEC. Noted short seller Hindenburg Research then disclosed a short position in the company and wrote in a report that it identified “fresh evidence of accounting manipulation.” The Wall Street Journal later reported that the Department of Justice was in the early stages of a probe into the company.

Super Micro disclosed Wednesday that Ernst & Young had resigned as its accounting firm just 17 months after taking over from Deloitte & Touche. The auditor said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.”

A Super Micro spokesperson told CNBC that the company “disagrees with E&Y’s decision to resign, and we are working diligently to select new auditors.” Super Micro does not expect matters raised by Ernst & Young to “result in any restatements of its quarterly financial results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, or for prior fiscal years,” the representative said.

Analysts at Argus Research on Thursday downgraded the stock in the intermediate term to a hold, citing the Hindenburg note, reports of the Justice Department investigation and the departure of Super Micro’s accounting firm, which the analysts called a “serious matter.” Argus’ fears go beyond accounting irregularities, with the firm suggesting that the company may be doing business with problematic entities.

“The DoJ’s concerns, in our view, may be mainly about related-party transactions and about SMCI products ending up in the hands of sanctioned Russian companies,” the analysts wrote.

In September, the month after announcing its filing delay, Super Micro said it had received a notification from the Nasdaq indicating that its late status meant the company wasn’t in compliance with the exchange’s listing rules. Super Micro said the Nasdaq’s rules allowed the company 60 days to file its report or submit a plan to regain compliance. Based on that timeframe, the deadline would be mid-November.

More

Super Micro's 45% plunge this week wipes out stock's gain for the year

Finally, is the US jobs market already rolling over?

U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, impacted by hurricanes, Boeing strike

Published Fri, Nov 1 2024 8:31 AM EDT

Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020 as the impacts of storms in the Southeast and a significant labor impasse dented the employment picture.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. In what had already been expected to be a downbeat report, October posted the smallest gain since December 2020.

The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also was unchanged at 7.7%.

In the report narrative, the BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost 46,000 positions overall.

Along with that, the report noted the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton but said “it is not possible to quantify the net effect” of the storms on the jobs total.

Elsewhere, the bureau said average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month, slightly higher than the estimate, though the 4% 12-month gain was in line. The average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours.

Markets, though, largely ignored the bad news, with stock market futures poised for a strong open on Wall Street while Treasury yields plunged. The meager jobs numbers along with wages about in line with expectations help cement another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

“At first glance, October’s jobs report paints a picture of growing fragility in the U.S. labor market, but under the surface is a muddy report roiled by climate and labor disruptions,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “While the impacts of these events are real and should not be ignored, they are likely temporary and not a signal of a collapsing job market.”

----The weak October report also included substantial downward revisions from previous months. August was cut to just a gain of 78,000 while September’s initial estimate came down to 223,000. Together, the net revisions lowered previously reported job creation totals by 112,000.

Health care and government again led job creation, respectively adding 52,000 and 40,000 positions. Several sectors, though, saw job losses.

In addition to the expected pullback in manufacturing, temporary help services saw a drop of 49,000. The category is sometimes seen as a proxy for underlying job strength and has seen a decline of 577,000 since March 2022, the BLS said.

Another leading sector, leisure and hospitality, saw a drop of 4,000, while retail trade and transportation and warehousing also reported modest declines.

In the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, the hiring numbers were even weaker.

That showed 368,000 fewer people reported holding jobs and the labor force contracting by 220,000. Full-time employment declined by 164,000, while part-timers fell by 227,000.

More

U.S. jobs report October 2024: Economy added 12,000 jobs, impacted by hurricanes, Boeing strike

Layoffs Surge In U.S. White-Collar Jobs As Rates, AI Alter Office Work

Nov. 01, 2024 3:40 AM ET

One in every four American workers who have lost their jobs this year worked in professional and business services, a sign that the white-collar labor market may be straining under the weight of high interest rates and that technological advances may already be making some workers obsolete.

In September, employers shed 497,000 professional and business services jobs - which includes accountants, consultants and legal workers - the highest for the group in nearly two years and more than any other sector during the month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Oct. 29.

Through the first nine months of 2024, professional and business service sector jobs accounted for more than 3.7 million of the nearly 14.9 million layoffs and discharges in the US.

While the exact causes of these job cuts remain unclear, it could reflect a cyclical weakness sparked by higher interest rates and overall restrictive monetary policy hindering investment and employment.

It may also reflect more structural changes, with the rising number of layoffs and stalling growth in the sector potentially connected to new technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, replacing white-collar workers and improving productivity with a smaller number of employees, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

"If those trends stick in the coming months, even as interest rates fall and activity in various markets revives, that could be evidence in support of the theory that the economy is fundamentally changing due to new technologies," Pollak said.

The overall number of Americans employed in the professional and business services sector ballooned by nearly 3.8 million from April 2020 to over 22.9 million in April 2024, but growth has largely stagnated since, peaking just below 23 million in May 2024, where it has essentially stalled.

"While it is still well above the pre-COVID level, it is now clearly below the pre-COVID trend," Pollak said.

As growth has stalled, hiring in the sector has flattened, and layoffs and discharges have begun to climb. The 497,000 layoffs and discharges in September were the most for the sector since January 2023.

The professional and business services sector includes temporary help services and staffing firms that have seen a pullback in recent months and often see dynamic labor turnover, said Cory Stahle, an economist with Indeed Hiring Lab.

Overall, the jobs data shows a clear trend of cooling and rebalancing as job openings have fallen steeply from their peak in late 2021, Stahle said.

"That large peak gave the Federal Reserve a cushion to work with, but that is nearly spent," Stahle said. "The labor market is still relatively solid, but we are at a point where further cooling could become more worrisome and start impacting unemployment."

There were 7.4 million job openings in the US in September, the lowest number of openings since January 2021, the new data shows.

More

Layoffs Surge In U.S. White-Collar Jobs As Rates, AI Alter Office Work | Seeking Alpha

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch. 

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Retail footfall returns to downward trend after September spike

Friday 01 November 2024 6:00 am

After a brief rise in September, retail footfall has fallen again in October, as the number of feet on Britain’s streets returns to its downward trend.

Total UK footfall decreased by 1.1 per cent year on year in October, down from a rise of 3.3 per cent in September.

Many in the sector, which has been struggling with declining footfall, had hoped September’s rise marked the beginning of a more consistent uptick in traffic.

“While this will be disappointing for many retailers… it perhaps shouldn’t come as a surprise,” Andy Sumpter, Retail Consultant EMEA for Sensormatic, said.

“We expect to see a bumpy recovery as a myriad of market conditions – from the cost of living to shaky consumer confidence around the Budget – continue to make footfall performance volatile,” Sumpter added.

Consumer confidence had dipped ahead of the budget as Brits worried about potential increases to their tax bill. As it is, the only rise in tax which will affect most Brits – albeit indirectly – is the 1.2 per cent rise in employer national insurance contributions (NICs).

However, depending on who ends up paying for the tax, it could leave retail employers out of pocket.

MRI software found a similar dip in September, with their slightly softer figures showing a 0.6 per cent year on year drop in all UK retail destinations, led by a 0.8 per cent decline in high streets and 1.5 per cent in shopping centres. Retail parks saw footfall rise by 0.8 per cent.

Half-term move impacts footfall

The figures may not be as bad as they seem, with the year-on-year drop partially due to a shift in the school half term holidays, which this year spanned the final week of October and the first week of November. Last week, the holidays fell within the October reporting period.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “October’s footfall figures showed a marginal decline compared to last year, primarily due to half-term moving out of the comparison.”

On a more positive note, Dickinson added that “retail parks continued to attract shoppers, as they saw positive footfall growth for the third consecutive month, [and] across England, the northern towns performed best, with Leeds and Liverpool seeing positive footfall last month.”

Plus, with Black Friday less than a month away and Christmas soon after that, retail stores and destinations are likely to see footfall rise as we head into November.

Retail footfall returns to downward trend after September spike

European Inflation Leaves ECB Rate Hawks Circling

October 31, 2024 at 6:07 PM GMT

Europeans are still feeling the pinch at grocery markets as food prices continue to surge. Inflation accelerated more than expected among the 20 countries that use the euro, bolstering the case of hawkish European Central Bank members who want to see only a gradual easing of credit conditions. Consumer prices rose 2% from a year ago in October, up from 1.7% the previous month and exceeding analysts’ estimates for a 1.9% increase, Eurostat reported today. A smaller decline in energy costs was a major driver behind the sticky inflation numbers, as was a 2.9% increase in the price for food. With new economic dangers looming, from widening wars to the potential return of Donald Trump,rates may be cut more slowly than some Europeans would like.

Rumbling bond giants began to digest the UK’s new budget presented by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. Fund managers are weighing a package that points to substantially steeper government borrowing in the coming years, along with higher-than-expected inflation and growth forecasts. Bonds were whiplashed today as investors attempted to make sense of the ramifications and what it all means for monetary policy.

European Inflation Leaves ECB Interest Rate Hawks Circling - Bloomberg

Concerns growing at Wolfsburg amid crisis at owners Volkswagen

31 October 2024

Concerns are growing at VfL Wolfsburg amid the crisis at owners and German carmakers Volkswagen.

According to local newspapers, there's a major feeling of uncertainty among the club employees, while comments on the Volkswagen's intranet have questioned why the company can still afford "an expensive toy" like Wolfsburg, while thousands of jobs are under threat.

The firm's works council told VW employees at an event on Monday that the company intends to close at least three of its 10 plants in Germany and cut tens of thousands of jobs.

Mass lay-offs are planned as all remaining VW plants in Germany will be downsized under the plan from management.

Wolfsburg said in a statement that the club "is gearing its daily actions towards making a contribution to VW's major savings program."

“As a subsidiary of Volkswagen, it has always been our aim to use the resources made available to us efficiently and cost-effectively,” the statement read.

The relationship between Wolfsburg and VW is essentially based on two agreements.

A control and profit transfer agreement stipulates that the club must pass on all profits to its parent company if it sells a player. That was the case when Kevin De Bruyne was sold to Manchester City for €75 million ($81.5 million).

Conversely, VW also compensates Wolfsburg for all losses - as in the coronavirus pandemic or after particularly unsuccessful years.

The financial support from VW also comes in other forms, such as jersey advertising and the stadium's naming rights. Ahead of this season, the contributions amounted to almost €80 million.

The future of the relationship between Wolfsburg and VW amid the company's financial crisis is unclear, but the club has already changed its strategy, adopting measures such as primarily signing young players to develop them and sell them on at a high price.

Wolfsburg, like Bayer Leverkusen, who are owned by pharmaceutical giants Bayer, are granted a special exception from the 50+1 rule in German football.

The rule states that no shareholder can have more than 50% control of a professional German team.

Concerns growing at Wolfsburg amid crisis at owners Volkswagen

Covid-19 Corner       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

More boosting of big pharma vaccines but no mention of boosting your vitamin D.

How to tell the difference between Covid, flu and RSV amid 'tripledemic' threat

It's important to get vaccinated and know the differences between each illness and its symptoms

18:10, 31 OCT 2024

With the arrival of colder temperatures, concerns are growing that a 'tripledemic' may be approaching with a potential surge in cases of Covid-19, flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

Health officials in Northern Ireland say flu and RSV activity continues to increase along with Covid. That's why it's important to get vaccinated and know the differences between each illness and its symptoms.

Recent data from UKHSA revealed that during the last two winters, there have been at least 18,000 flu-related deaths and more than 19,500 deaths linked to Covid-19 across the country.

Earlier this month it was confirmed that the highly transmissible new Covid XEC variant has been detected here in NI. According to the Public Health Agency, this latest strain, which is a combination of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants, is thought to be more transmissible due to its numerous mutations. . The most common variant at this time is KP.3.

It's thought to be so contagious due to the number of mutations it carries with experts believing it could become the dominant strain. It's thought to be responsible for around one in 10 cases of the virus in the UK.

The PHA has integrated influenza, RSV and Covid-19 epidemiology reporting into a new respiratory surveillance report to provide a single overview of these infections in NI, along with the number of care home outbreaks, hospital admissions and occupancy, and deaths.

In its latest respiratory surveillance report up to 30th October, the PHA said flu and RSV activity continued to increase across the majority of surveillance indicators while Covid increased across some surveillance indicators.

Of the 91 community-acquired emergency hospital admissions, 27 were Flu A, four Flu B, 33 were RSV and 27 were Covid. Community acquired emergency influenza and RSV inpatients increased but remains at low levels and there has been a stable trend in the number of community acquired emergency Covid inpatients in recent weeks.

Meanwhile 73 respiratory-associated deaths out of 326 all-cause deaths were reported (23.4%). In the week ending 18th October, 12 Covid-19 deaths out of 316 all-cause deaths were reported (3.2%).

Flu season typically reaches its highest point in December and January.

More

How to tell the difference between Covid, flu and RSV amid 'tripledemic' threat - Belfast Live

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Next-generation perovskite solar cell can absorb near-infrared light beyond the existing visible light range

1 November 2024

xisting perovskite solar cells, which are unable to utilize approximately 52% of total solar energy, have been improved upon by a Korean research team. The team has developed an innovative technology that maximizes near-infrared light capture performance while greatly improving power conversion efficiency. This greatly increases the possibility of commercializing next-generation solar cells and is expected to contribute to important technological advancements in the global solar cell market.

The research team of Professor Jung-Yong Lee of the School of Electrical Engineering at KAIST and Professor Woojae Kim of the Department of Chemistry at Yonsei University announced on October 31 that they have developed a high-efficiency and high-stability organic-inorganic hybrid solar cell production technology that maximizes near-infrared light capture beyond the existing visible light range. Their study is published in the journal Advanced Materials.

The research team suggested and advanced a hybrid next-generation device structure with organic photo-semiconductors to complement perovskite materials limited to visible light absorption and expand the absorption range to near-infrared.

In addition, the researchers examined the electronic structure problem that mainly occurs in the structure and announced a high-performance solar cell device that dramatically solves this problem by introducing a dipole layer.

Existing lead-based perovskite solar cells have a problem in that their absorption spectrum is limited to the visible light region with a wavelength of 850 nanometers (nm) or less, which prevents them from utilizing approximately 52% of the total solar energy.

To solve this problem, the research team designed a hybrid device that combined an organic bulk heterojunction (BHJ) with perovskite and implemented a solar cell that can absorb up to the near-infrared region.

In particular, by introducing a sub-nanometer dipole interface layer, they succeeded in alleviating the energy barrier between the perovskite and the organic bulk heterojunction (BHJ), suppressing charge accumulation, maximizing the contribution to the near-infrared, and improving the current density (JSC) to 4.9 mA/cm2.

The key achievement of this study is that the power conversion efficiency (PCE) of the hybrid device has been significantly increased from 20.4% to 24.0%. In particular, this study achieved a higher internal quantum efficiency (IQE) than previous studies, reaching 78% in the near-infrared region.

In addition, this device showed high stability, showing excellent results of maintaining more than 80% of the initial efficiency in the maximum output tracking for more than 800 hours even under extreme humidity conditions.

Professor Lee said, "Through this study, we have effectively solved the charge accumulation and energy band mismatch problems faced by existing perovskite/organic hybrid solar cells, and we will be able to significantly improve the power conversion efficiency while maximizing the near-infrared light capture performance, which will be a new breakthrough that can solve the mechanical-chemical stability problems of existing perovskites and overcome the optical limitations."

More information: Min‐Ho Lee et al, Suppressing Hole Accumulation Through Sub‐Nanometer Dipole Interfaces in Hybrid Perovskite/Organic Solar Cells for Boosting Near‐Infrared Photon Harvesting, Advanced Materials (2024). DOI: 10.1002/adma.202411015

Next-generation perovskite solar cell can absorb near-infrared light beyond the existing visible light range


Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. The Polish Great, Antoni Habel.  Approx. 5 minutes.

Sinfonia in F Major: I. Allegro molto

Sinfonia in F Major: I. Allegro molto

Antoni Habel

Antoni Habel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 10 minutes.

Fabiano Caruana vs Garry Kasparov || Chess 9LX 2024

Fabiano Caruana vs Garry Kasparov || Chess 9LX 2024

This weekend’s final, final technical diversion,. My thanks to Richard in Canada for sending it along. The US river transportation system explained.  Approx. 22 minutes.

How Inland Waterways Work

How Inland Waterways Work - YouTube

The incredible [EU] 61-mile-long ‘mini-Suez' canal that shields ships and goods from storms

27 October, 2024

Europe is home to its very own mini-Suez Canal that has been operating for over 100 years and sees as many as 130 ships every day.

The Kiel Canal, a 61-mile freshwater canal in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein, was completed in 1895 and later widened. It connects the North Sea at Brunsbuttel to the Baltic Sea at Kiel-Holtenau.

More

The incredible 61-mile-long ‘mini-Suez' canal that shields ships and goods from storms

This weekend’s final diversion.  How HMS Dreadnought changed naval warfare for 40 years. Approx. 24 minutes.

How This Battleship Changed History | The Design of HMS Dreadnought

How This Battleship Changed History | The Design of HMS Dreadnought

As a matter of fact, capitalist economy is not and cannot be stationary. Nor is it merely expanding in a steady manner. It is incessantly being revolutionized from within by new enterprise, i.e., by the intrusion of new commodities or new methods of production or new commercial opportunities into the industrial structure as it exists at any moment.

Joseph A. Schumpeter.


Friday, 1 November 2024

An Economic World Turning Upside Down? Stocks Wobble.

Baltic Dry Index. 1388 -07            Brent Crude  74.15

Spot Gold 2756                  US 2 Year Yield 4.16 +0.01

“It would be so nice if something made sense for a change.”

Chairman Powell, with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.

In the stock casinos priced to infinity and beyond, more pause on mixed economic data. Later today, the latest US jobs data from the Bureau of Lying Labor Statistics.

Today’s data is likely to have been affected by the Boeing strike, which finally looks like ending, and the last two hurricanes that hit hard Florida and east Tennessee and west North Carolina.

With Boeing, Amazon and Intel shares rising in the aftermarket, today’s US casino action could turn choppy ahead of next Tuesday’s US elections.

Adding to potential choppiness, crude oil rising on rumours of planned Iranian retaliation coming against Israel.

Up first, news from the Asian stock casinos.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 leads losses in Asia; China stocks cheer better-than-expected PMI data

Updated Fri, Nov 1 2024 1:16 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded largely lower on Friday, after Wall Street benchmarks Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 suffered their worst day in nearly two months on downbeat Microsoft earnings forecast and Meta results.

Traders in Asia assessed a slate of economic data from the region.

Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for October came in at 50.3, according to the private survey, beating median estimate of 49.7 in a Reuters poll of economists, and rebounding from September’s 49.3.

A reading below 50 shows contraction in manufacturing, while one above that indicates expansion.

China’s CSI 300 jumped 0.87%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed over 1.57%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.26%, while the broad-based Topix dropped 1.52%. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark policy rate at 0.25% on Thursday.

In South Korea, the blue chip Kospi traded near the flatline while the Kosdaq index lost 1.24%.

Taiwan Weighted Index lost 1.51%, as Typhoon Kong-rey, the largest storm to hit the island in nearly 30 years, wreaked havoc.

Australia’s third-quarter producer prices index climbed 3.9% year on year, sharply lower than 4.8% reading in the previous quarter, according to data from Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday. Quarter on quarter, the index rose 0.9% compared with a 1% rise in previous quarter.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.5% to finish at 8,118.8.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes dropped.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.86% to finish at 5,705.45 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.76% to close at 18,095.15 — both recorded their biggest one-day losses since Sept. 3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9% to end at 41,763.46.

That marked the final trading day of a choppy month on Wall Street, with the 30-stock Dow recording monthly losses of 1.3%, S&P 500 declining 1% and the Nasdaq slipping 0.5%, amid heightened uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next week.

Asia markets Live Updates: Caixin China PMI; Australia PPI

S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffer their worst day in over a month, led lower by tech: Live updates

Updated Thu, Oct 31 2024 4:09 PM EDT

Stocks slid on Thursday as Wall Street digested discouraging quarterly reports from megacap technology names and awaited further results.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.86% to finish at 5,705.45. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.76% to close at 18,095.15. Both indexes posted their biggest one-day declines since Sept. 3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 378.08 points, or 0.9%, to end at 41,763.46.

Microsoft shares slid 6% after the tech giant’s revenue guidance disappointed investors and overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat. Meta Platforms dropped more than 4% after the Facebook parent missed the Street’s expectations for user growth and warned that capital expenditures will significantly rise in 2025.

“I think we’re getting to the point where AI enthusiasm and potential is not enough. These companies, while they’re still levered to those themes and hold favorable long term growth profiles, are not quite delivering the growth that is priced into them,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.

Big tech earnings so far this week have been a mixed bag. While Alphabet shares rose nearly 3% on Wednesday after the company reported strong revenue growth, chipmaker AMD fell more than 10% as investors were disappointed by the company’s guidance for the fourth quarter.

Tech earnings continue on Thursday with results from megacap stocks Apple and Amazon due after the bell.

The latest personal consumption expenditures price index showed 12-month inflation rose at a rate of 2.1% in September, arriving inline with estimates and moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The PCE reading is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Thursday’s PCE reading, along with Friday’s October payrolls report and unemployment data, will inform the Fed’s interest rate decision on Nov. 7 when it ends its two-day policy meeting.

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Stock market today: Live updates

Boeing Union Endorses Latest Offer to End Crippling Strike

October 31, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. and union leaders representing 33,000 striking workers reached a tentative agreement to end a lengthy labor dispute that’s crippling the company’s commercial airplane manufacturing.

The company’s latest proposal would boost wages by 38% over four years and give workers a $12,000 signing bonus if it’s approved, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said in a statement.

IAM District 751 urged its members to accept the Boeing offer and end the strike, warning they risked losing gains they’ve made after weeks of collective bargaining. The union plans to hold a vote on the proposal on Nov. 4.

“In every negotiation and strike, there is a point where we have extracted everything that we can in bargaining and by withholding our labor,” the union said late Thursday. “We are at that point now and risk a regressive or lesser offer in the future.”

Boeing’s shares rose as much as 2.8% in after-hours trading. The stock had plunged 43% so far this year through the close of Thursday’s session.

The latest attempt to end the labor strife comes after 64% of members of IAM District 751 voted to reject Boeing’s third contract offer, which would’ve hiked wages by 35% over four years. Ratification would represent a critical win for new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg, clearing the way to move forward with plans to rebuild Boeing’s culture and improve the quality of work in its factories.

More

Boeing Union Endorses Latest Offer to End Crippling Strike

In other news, the World Bank is banking on a commodity price slump due to a drop in oil demand from China. 

Well maybe, but I expect an oil glut from recessions in the USA, UK and EU reducing their oil demand too.

World Bank expects oil glut to cause commodity price slump

October 29, 2024

Global commodity prices should fall to a five-year low next year thanks to a huge oil glut, the World Bank said Tuesday, pointing to oversupply and to flat demand from China.

"Next year, the global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day," the Bank announced in its latest report on global commodity markets, adding that this scale of oversupply has been exceeded only twice before, in 1998 and 2020.

The expected oil glut "is so large that it is likely to limit the price effects even of a wider conflict in the Middle East," the Bank said. 

It blamed the expected oversupply partly on a "major shift" underway in China, where demand for oil has flatlined on the back of rising electric vehicle sales, demand for trucks running on liquified natural gas (LNG), and a slowdown in industrial production. 

The Bank said it also expects several countries not in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or its allies (OPEC+) "to ramp up oil production," fueling the oversupply and helping to push down global commodity prices by almost 10 percent by the end of 2026.

But despite the sharp decline, overall commodity prices will likely remain around 30 percent above their level in the five years before the Covid-19 pandemic. 

"Falling commodity prices and better supply conditions can provide a buffer against geopolitical shocks," World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said in a statement. 

"But they will do little to alleviate the pain of high food prices in developing countries, where food-price inflation is double the norm in advanced economies," he added.

The World Bank expects food prices to fall by nine percent this year, and by an additional four percent in 2025, leaving them stuck around 25 percent above the level they were at between 2015 and 2019. 

Meanwhile, energy prices are predicted to drop by six percent next year, and by a further two percent in 2026.

World Bank expects oil glut to cause commodity price slump 

Stellantis sells fewer cars and reports lower European demand

31 October 2024

he owner of car brands including Fiat, Chrysler and Peugeot has reported a steep fall in sales, blaming production delays and flagging European demand.

Stellantis reported revenues on Thursday of €33bn for the July to September quarter, a drop of 27% compared with the same period a year earlier.

Shipments of cars fell to 1.1m, down 20% on last year. Stellantis blamed the drop partly on delays to production of some models in Europe as it switches factories from producing petrol and diesel cars to electric and hybrid models.

Carmakers around the world have been struggling with relatively weak demand amid higher interest rates, while coming up with the large investments needed to make the electric switch. Germany’s Volkswagen this week also reported a slump in profits, with BMW and Mercedes-Benz also reporting weaker sales.

Stellantis, which is headquartered in Amsterdam and which also owns the Vauxhall, Citroën, Jeep and Maserati brands, has struggled particularly recently. In September it issued a profit warning because of waning demand and increased competition from Chinese rivals, who are targeting the new electric vehicle market in particular.

Its chief executive, Carlos Tavares, disclosed this month that he would step down in 2026. In an effort to secure his legacy, he has launched a turnaround drive in North America, including cutting the number of cars sitting on dealer forecourts.

---- Stellantis is racing to match its Chinese competitors with a barrage of new battery electric models in Europe, while still producing petrol and hybrids.

However, the company has also pushed back against European and British regulations that force carmakers to sell more electric cars, including threatening to close UK factories. Tavares said this month that the future of its UK factories would be decided “in the next few weeks”.

Tavares has been open about the threat from Asian competitors but he has taken a different approach from that of many European rivals by agreeing to sell cars by the Chinese manufacturer Leapmotor.

Despite the EU’s moves to impose tariffs totalling up to 45% on car imports from China, the march of the country’s manufacturers is expected to continue. Sales at China’s biggest electric carmaker, BYD, passed Tesla’s for the first time in the third quarter of 2024, and it is looking to expand beyond its home market. BYD this week said it had poached Stellantis’s former UK chief, Maria Grazia Davino, to lead its European operations.

Stellantis sells fewer cars and reports lower European demand

Ford to idle F-150 Lightning EV plant in mid-November for rest of year

October 31, 2024

Ford Motor Co. plans to stop building its F-150 Lightning from mid-November through the end of the year amid lower-than-expected demand for the electric pickup.

More, subscription required.

Ford F-150 Lightning EV production to shut down for 7 weeks

Finally, in EU v China trade war news, are the disastrous 1930s starting to repeat?

Exclusive-China tells carmakers to pause investment in EU countries backing EV tariffs, sources say

31 October 2024

SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China has told its automakers to halt big investment in European countries that support extra tariffs on Chinese-built electric vehicles, two people briefed about the matter said, a move likely to further divide Europe.

The new European Union tariffs of up to 45.3% came into effect on Wednesday after a year-long investigation that divided the bloc and prompted retaliation from Beijing.

Ten EU members including France, Poland and Italy supported tariffs in a vote this month, in which five members including Germany opposed them and 12 abstained.

As Beijing continues negotiations over an alternative to tariffs, Chinese automakers including BYD, SAIC, and Geely were told at a meeting held by the Ministry of Commerce on Oct. 10 that they should pause their heavy asset investment plans such as factories in countries that backed the proposal, said the people.

They declined to be named, as the meeting was not public.

Several foreign automakers also attended the meeting, where the participants were told to be prudent about their investments in countries that abstained from voting and were "encouraged" to invest in those that voted against the tariffs, the people said.

Geely declined to comment. SAIC, BYD and the commerce ministry did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

Italy and France are among EU countries that have been courting Chinese automakers for investments, but they have also warned of the risks that a flood of cheap Chinese EVs pose to European manufacturers.

State-owned SAIC, China's second-largest auto exporter, is choosing a site for an EV factory in Europe and has been separately planning to open its second European parts centre in France this year to meet growing demand for its MG-brand cars.

An aide to France's junior trade minister Sophie Primas said they had no comment to make ahead of her trip to China next week.

The Italian government is in talks with Chery, China's largest automaker by exports, and other Chinese automakers, including Dongfeng Motor, about potential investments.

Italy's industry ministry declined to comment. Dongfeng and Chery didn't immediately respond.

BYD is building a plant in Hungary, which voted against the tariffs. The Chinese EV giant has also been considering relocating its European headquarters from the Netherlands to Hungary due to cost concerns, two separate people with knowledge of the matter said.

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Exclusive-China tells carmakers to pause investment in EU countries backing EV tariffs, sources say

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

EU Officials to Visit Beijing to Discuss EV Tariffs

October 31, 2024 at 6:38 AM GMT

The European Union will send officials to Beijing to discuss EV tariffs. Take a deep dive into the aftermath of Rachel Reeves’ first UK budget. And see why Swiss watchmakers are listening to social media influencers. Listen to the day’s top stories.

The EU will send officials to Beijing to hold more talks aimed at finding an alternative to tariffs on EVs from China, people familiar said. The two sides have been exploring whether an agreement can be reached on so-called price undertakings—a complex mechanism to control prices and volumes of exports, used to avoid tariffs. European automakers, including Volkswagen, are looking for ways to save costs as they struggle with poor demand and intensifying competition from China.

Central Banks: The Bank of Japan 
kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25% as Japan’s political instability raised uncertainty. The yen strengthened after the central bank raised its growth forecast. The European Central Bank should take a careful approach to lowering rates and not rush further cuts, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. Czech National Bank Vice Governor Eva Zamrazilova said that the Czech economy is faced with inflationary risks that warrant a consideration of pausing interest rate cuts.

----Economic data: China's economy showed signs of stabilizing in October, with factory activity expanding after five months of contraction, possibly thanks to stimulus measures. Euro-area inflation may have accelerated to 1.9% this month, though Bloomberg Economics sees no change in the headline number at 1.7%. Consensus is for core price gains to have slowed marginally.

Deep Dive: UK Budget Analysis

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered a massive package of tax hikes alongside plans to ramp up public investment in a historic first budget that aimed to revive the UK economy—but fell short of delivering a major boost to its growth prospects.

·         The budget mixes £41 billion in tax hikes with £142 billion in extra borrowing, but UK Office For Budget Responsibility projections suggest only a short-term growth boost, with a lower impact on output than previous Tory plans in the long-term.

·         Reeves’ extra borrowing plans mean that debt (excluding the Bank of England) is projected to rise to almost 96% of GDP in five years’ time, up from the estimate in March.

More

EU Officials to Visit Beijing to Discuss EV Tariffs - Bloomberg

Gilts, sterling and FTSE 250 slump as markets digest Budget borrowing plans

Thursday 31 October 2024 3:56 pm

UK government borrowing costs have climbed to their highest level this year as investors digested the impact of the new government’s first Budget.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that borrowing would be around £30bn a year higher to help fund an investment push, which the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) described as “one of the largest fiscal loosenings of any fiscal event”.

The Debt Management Office said that gilt issuance was likely to reach £300bn in 2025, up from the previous estimate of £278bn and the second largest figure on record.

The increase in investment is likely to push up inflation and slow the pace of interest rate cuts, the OBR said on Wednesday.

Although traders initially seemed to take the Budget in their stride, yields on government debt have increased significantly over the past 24 hours or so.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt hit 4.55 per cent this afternoon, its highest level since October last year. The yield on the rate-sensitive two-year gilt hit its highest level since May as investors re-priced the short term path for UK interest rates.

While other government bonds were also selling off on Thursday, the sell-off in UK government debt was more aggressive than elsewhere.

Investors also sold the pound, which fell to its lowest level against the dollar since August.

“The volatility in the gilt market has been extraordinary, with the 10-year yield up 30bps in the past 24 hours alone,” Kyle Chapman, FX market analyst at Ballinger Group said.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB said it was evidence that the Chancellor had “overestimated” the market’s desire to absorb more government debt.

“Unfunded borrowing to invest is seemingly treated the same way as unfunded tax cuts. Higher public spending is not what investors want to see,” she added.

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UK debt sell-off builds as markets digest Budget borrowing plans

Inflation and mortgage rates elevated by Chancellor’s spending plans, says OBR

30 October 2024

Inflation and mortgage costs are on track to be higher than previously expected due to the Chancellor’s spending and borrowing plans, according to the fiscal watchdog.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced almost £70 billion of extra spending each year, funded by business-focused tax hikes and additional borrowing, in her maiden autumn Budget.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the sharp increase in spending will contribute to higher inflation in the short-term, although it will also help drive stronger economic growth.

OBR member David Miles said: “The inflation profile is a bit higher than it would have been if there hadn’t been quite a substantial increase in spending.”

Inflation is set to stay above the Bank of England’s target of 2% until 2029, according to the latest forecasts, which upgraded their predictions for the next four years.

This means inflation is predicted to average 2.5% this year and 2.6% next year.

The official forecaster said that inflation would then come down, assuming “the Bank of England responds” to help bring it to the target rate.

The Bank of England has used higher interest rates in recent years to help bring down the rate of UK inflation after it soared to 11.1% in 2022.

The interest rate, which helps to dictate mortgage rates, currently sits a 5% after most recently being reduced in August by Bank policymakers.

Mr Miles said the OBR’s new inflation forecasts and borrowing projections – predicting the Chancellor will increase borrowing by £32 billion a year – mean interest rates are likely to be 0.25 percentage points higher than they otherwise would have been in the coming years.

As a result, the yield on UK Government bonds, also known as gilts, rose by around 2% following the announcement of the Budget.

Average mortgage rates are expected to rise from an average of 3.7% to 4.5% over the next three years, slightly above previous projections, according to the OBR.

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Inflation and mortgage rates elevated by Chancellor’s spending plans, says OBR

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Nigerians suffering neurological impact of COVID-19 two years after — Study

31 October 2024

Several individuals in Nigeria are experiencing neurological manifestations of neuro-long COVID  such as brain fog, mild cognitive impairment, fatigue, sleep problems, headache, sensations of pins and needles, and muscle pain, according to the findings of a study carried out by Nigerian and American scientists.

The collaborative study between Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and researchers from the University of Lagos, Unilag, and the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, LUTH, highlights the urgent need for better screening, diagnosis, and treatment of neuro-long COVID-19 in Nigeria.

“This is why we have to start by researching to demonstrate the need for diagnosis and clinical care of these patients and advocate for specialized outpatient clinics.  If you don’t know that something exists, you can’t treat it,” Koralnik said.

Predominant neurologic symptoms among study participants included brain fog (59.4 percent); fatigue (55.7 percent); sleep problems (32 percent), headache (31 percent); paresthesia, or numbness and pins and needles (11.3 percent), and myalgia, or muscle pain (9.4 percent).

Of the 66 participants with neuro-long COVID who underwent an in-person neurological evaluation and cognitive screening, 16.9 percent completed the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, a widely used cognitive impairment screening assessment that had results consistent with mild cognitive impairment.

In the future, the scientists plan to treat brain fog and cognitive dysfunction in neuro-long COVID patients in Nigeria by applying the same techniques he and his team are currently using in Chicago, Koralnik said. Long COVID principally affects adults in their prime, affecting their quality of life and ability to work, contributing to profound public health and socio-economic impacts.

Nigerians suffering neurological impact of COVID-19 two years after — Study

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Significant extension of zinc battery lifespan

Researchers develop new chemical method for improved energy storage

Date:  October 28, 2024

Source:  Technical University of Munich (TUM)

Summary:  The transition to renewable energy requires efficient methods for storing large amounts of electricity. Researchers have developed a new method that could extend the lifespan of aqueous zinc-ion batteries by several orders of magnitude. Instead of lasting just a few thousand cycles, they could now endure several hundred thousand charge and discharge cycles.

The transition to renewable energy requires efficient methods for storing large amounts of electricity. Researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have developed a new method that could extend the lifespan of aqueous zinc-ion batteries by several orders of magnitude. Instead of lasting just a few thousand cycles, they could now endure several hundred thousand charge and discharge cycles.

The key to this innovation is a special protective layer for the zinc anodes of the batteries.

This layer addresses previous issues such as the growth of needle-like zinc structures -- known as zinc dendrites -- as well as unwanted chemical side reactions that trigger hydrogen formation and corrosion.

The key to this innovation is a special protective layer for the zinc anodes of the batteries.

This layer addresses previous issues such as the growth of needle-like zinc structures -- known as zinc dendrites -- as well as unwanted chemical side reactions that trigger hydrogen formation and corrosion.

The research team, led by Prof. Roland A. Fischer, Chair of Inorganic and Metal-Organic Chemistry at the TUM School of Natural Sciences, uses a unique material for this purpose: a porous organic polymer called TpBD-2F. This material forms a stable, ultra-thin, and highly ordered film on the zinc anode, allowing zinc ions to flow efficiently through nano-channels while keeping water away from the anode.

Zinc Batteries as a Cost-Effective Alternative to Lithium-Ion Batteries

Da Lei, Ph.D. student and lead author of the research published in Advanced Energy Materials, explains: "Zinc-ion batteries with this new protective layer could replace lithium-ion batteries in large-scale energy storage applications, such as in combination with solar or wind power plants. They last longer, are safer, and zinc is both cheaper and more readily available than lithium." While lithium remains the first choice for mobile applications like electric vehicles and portable devices, its higher costs and environmental impact make it less attractive for large-scale energy storage.

Prof. Roland A. Fischer adds: "This is truly a spectacular research result. We have shown that the chemical approach developed by Da Lei not only works but is also controllable. As fundamental researchers, we are primarily interested in new scientific principles -- and here we have discovered one. We have already developed a first prototype in the form of a button cell. I see no reason why our findings couldn't be translated to larger applications. Now, it's up to engineers to take up the idea and develop appropriate production processes."

Significant extension of zinc battery lifespan | ScienceDaily

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the last weekend before the USA votes.  In higher taxes and higher borrowing UK, voters remorse for last July’s vote. Would Iran dare attack Israel ahead of Tuesday’s US elections?  Have a great weekend everyone.

“No, no!” said the UK Chancellor Reeves, the Hammer of the UK Pensioners. “Sentence first—verdict afterwards.” 

With apologies to Lweis Carrol and Alice.