Tuesday, 7 December 2010

D-Day.

Baltic Dry Index. 2179 +11

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE.

The history of taxation shows that taxes which are inherently excessive are not paid. The high rates inevitably put pressure upon the taxpayer to withdraw his capital from productive business.

Andrew Mellon.

It is D-day, the day Irish politicians get to vote the hapless and mostly innocent Irish population into debt slavery forever, in order to get an EU bailout of French, German and UK banks. A day of infamy on a day of infamy, when 69 years ago today Japan launched its unprovoked attack on Pearl Harbor. By diktat of Brussels and Berlin, the Irish are being told to get on their bikes and emigrate. Sold out into poverty to maintain Europe’s banksters affluent lifestyles. The vote, if it goes the Irish government’s way, must surely be the worst betrayal of a democratic people since the second world war. What part of capitalism does Brussels and Berlin fail to understand. Liquidate the Irish banks bondholders. If that creates problems for the lunatic banksters in France, Germany and Great Britain, let those banks go to their central banks and the ECB for emergency finance. If that means that some are insolvent, liquidate their bondholders and stockholders and reorganize them. Why socialize the debts onto the poor Irish population.

Below, the EU on the edge of the Lehman abyss, says Arabian Money Net. Ireland may be sold out all for naught. Stay long precious metals. The worst is still ahead, says Bloomberg.

"liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."

Andrew Mellon.

Eurozone on the brink of a Lehman-style meltdown

Posted on 07 December 2010

The crisis now enveloping the eurozone is reminiscent of 2008 and the storm that gathered before the collapse of Lehman and the major financial crisis in the autumn. One lesson from 2008 is that once confidence begins to fall in financial markets it quickly develops a momentum of its own.

The bailout of Greece has been followed by Ireland. That leaves bond vigilantes focusing on Portugal and Spain as their next targets. If the line cannot be drawn at the Iberian peninsula then it will move on to Belgium and France say the bond traders.

It ought to be possible to solve this crisis with a combination of austerity dependent on a tighter control of fiscal policy from the centre that will underpin cross guarantees. But the political will to make this happen is missing in Germany.

Without it defaults by Greece and Ireland are still being priced into bond yields that make the cost of servicing national debt prohibitive, and ultimately self-defeating. The default and bust will come, and markets are pricing it in and by doing so making it certain.

But as the Lehman experience showed no financial entity is an island unto itself these days. Cross border lending in the eurozone is the same. Defaults by Greece and Ireland would set off a catastrophic chain reaction across the global banking system.

---- Why is the eurozone sleep walking into this crisis? Well to be fair the US did not handle the subprime crisis much better. It thought Lehman was not too big to fail but it was, and the same mistake may now be made over the eurozone periphery countries that are only five per cent of euro zone GDP.

In these circumstances the flight to gold and silver by European investors is very understandable as is the strength of the dollar, and both can only grow stronger as this crisis unfolds unless something very unexpected now occurs.

More

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2010/12/07/eurozone-on-the-brink-of-a-lehman-style-meltdown

Euro collapse 'possible' amid deepening divisions over bail-out

It is feasible that the euro will not survive the current sovereign debt crisis sweeping Europe, one of the Treasury's leading independent forecasters has said.

By Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor 9:08PM GMT 06 Dec 2010

Under questioning from MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Stephen Nickell, a member of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and a former Bank of England rate-setter, said a collapse of the single currency was "a possibility".

Asked more broadly about the sustainability of currency unions, he added: "The general consensus is that sooner or later they fail for one reason or another – but that doesn't mean to say it always happens."

His comments came as deep divisions in the eurozone threatened to drive Spain, Portugal and Ireland into more difficulty.

Attempting to defy Germany, the eurozone's powerhouse and the nation that will provide the bulk of any rescue fund, Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders called for the €440bn bail-out fund to be expanded, while Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker and Italian counterpart Giulio Tremonti outlined proposals for a joint European government bond.

However, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria on Monday pitched themselves against weaker member states by insisting the rescue package should not be increased. Finance ministers from the 16 member nations were debating the bail-out plans late into the night.

------Ireland, which faces a crucial vote on its debt reduction plans on Tuesday, offered some rare good news as the government appeared to have won sufficient parliamentary support to push the plans through and qualify for the €85bn bail-out package.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8185225/Euro-collapse-possible-amid-deepening-divisions-over-bail-out.html

Euro’s Worst Ahead as Analysts See Crisis Spreading

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The most accurate foreign-exchange strategists say the euro’s worst annual performance since 2005 will extend into next year as the region’s sovereign-debt crisis saps economic growth.

Standard Chartered Plc, the top overall forecaster in the six quarters ended Sept. 30 based on data compiled by Bloomberg, predicted the euro may weaken to less than $1.20 by mid-2011 from about $1.33 today. Westpac Banking Corp., the second most accurate, is “bearish in the short term,” and No. 3 Wells Fargo & Co. cut its outlook at the end of last week.

The 16-nation currency’s first weekly gain against the dollar since Nov. 5 may prove short-lived amid mounting concern that more nations will need rescues. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet delayed the end of emergency stimulus measures last week and stepped up government-debt purchases as “acute” market tensions drove yields on Spanish and Italian bonds to the highest levels relative to German bunds since the euro started in 1999.

“We’re going to get a continuation of the problems that Ireland, Portugal, Spain and others are suffering,” said Callum Henderson, Standard Chartered’s global head of foreign-exchange research in Singapore. “The fundamental issue is these are countries that have relatively large debts, large budget deficits, large current-account deficits, they don’t have their own currency and they can’t cut interest rates. The only way they can get out of this is to have significant recessions.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqC8ID1EeNEI

Moody's downgrades Hungarian government debt

December 6, 2010

BUDAPEST, Hungary — Credit ratings agency Moody's downgraded Hungary's government bonds by two notches on Monday, citing worries about public finance policies and exposure to foreign financial shocks, such as the European debt crisis.

Moody's Investor Service said it cut the rating to Baa3 from Baa1 — just one step above junk category — and kept its outlook as negative, meaning more downgrades are possible in the coming three months.

"The government's (financial) strategy largely relies on temporary measures rather than sustainable fiscal consolidation policies," said Dietmar Hornung, Moody's' senior credit officer and lead analyst for Hungary.

The agency has also cut Hungary's rating for foreign-currency debt and bank deposits.

The move lowered Moody's listing for Hungary to the equivalent rating category of Standard & Poor's — BBB- — while Fitch lists the country at BBB, one step higher.

-----"While market reaction has been moderate for now ... it's conceivable that foreign investors will turn more cautious for a time, until the issues of the 2011 budget and the private pension funds are settled," Equilor said.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban's center-right government has committed to budget deficit limits set by the European Union but has resorted to unusual methods — including special taxes on banks and energy, telecommunications and retail companies — to reduce the deficit below 3 percent of GDP in coming years.

The government is also planning to fill budget holes with some $13.3 billion (€10 billion) accumulated on private pension funds. People opting to stay in the private pension scheme instead of transferring their savings and all future contributions to the state system by the end of January will lose 70 percent of their pensions when they retire, Economics Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy said last month.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40526537

At the Comex silver depositories Monday, final figures were: Registered 49.16 Moz, Eligible 57.93 Moz, Total 107.09 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No Crooks today, they are all gathered in Dublin for a treasonous vote.

The fairness of taxing more lightly income from wages, salaries or from investments is beyond question. In the first case, the income is uncertain and limited in duration; sickness or death destroys it and old age diminishes it; in the other, the source of income continues; the income may be disposed of during a man’s life and it descends to his heirs. Surely we can afford to make a distinction between the people whose only capital is their mettle and physical energy and the people whose income is derived from investments. Such a distinction would mean much to millions of American workers and would be an added inspiration to the man who must provide a competence during his few productive years to care for himself and his family when his earnings capacity is at an end.

Andrew Mellon.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November:

DJIA: +178 Down. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +167 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. November is the sixth down month in a row.

Monday, 6 December 2010

QE Forever.

Baltic Dry Index. 2168 +35

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised.

Set in Camelot, Arthur and Guinevere have a daughter. At the Blessing of Princess Aurora, Dr Bernanke arrives and sets an evil curse on the child, forcing the child into paying off the national debt….

Apologies to Richard Gauntlett. http://www.panto-scripts.co.uk/html/pantomime-script.html

Once on quantitative easing it’s impossible to get off it. Last night on American TV Dr. Bernanke seemed to confirm this. Stay long physical precious metals. QE forever spells the death of the fiat dollars as we know it. It ushers in the age of the Italian dollar, the Argentine dollar, and the age of the forever rolling fiat currency crisis.

“There’s danger in just shoveling out money to people who say, ‘My life is a little harder than it used to be, at a certain place you’ve got to say to the people, ‘Suck it in and cope, buddy. Suck it in and cope.’”

“Proper” Charlie Munger.

Bernanke Says Recovery ‘Close to Border,’ May Need More Easing

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economy is barely expanding at a sustainable pace and that it’s possible the Fed may expand bond purchases beyond the $600 billion announced last month to spur growth.

“We’re not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining,” Bernanke said in an interview broadcast yesterday by CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program. “It’s very close to the border. It takes about 2.5 percent growth just to keep unemployment stable and that’s about what we’re getting.”

Bernanke, in a rare appearance on a nationally broadcast news program, defended the Fed’s efforts to prop up a recovery so weak that only 39,000 jobs were created in November. The unemployment rate last month rose to 9.8 percent, the highest level since April, the Labor Department said on Dec. 3, three days after the Bernanke interview was taped. Republican lawmakers have said the Fed’s policy of “quantitative easing” may do little to help unemployment and may fuel inflation.

“At the rate we’re going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate” of about 5 percent to 6 percent, Bernanke said. The purchase of more bonds than planned is “certainly possible,” said Bernanke, 56. “It depends on the efficacy of the program” and the outlook for inflation and the economy.

Bernanke said a return to a recession “doesn’t seem likely” because sectors of the economy such as housing can’t become much more depressed.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aevdas34e8Ow&pos=2

In European news, the European finance ministers are all travelling to Brussels once again for yet another meeting to save Club Med and Ireland and attempt to save the unloved Euro. If large EU meetings really solved anything by now Club Med and Ireland would be experiencing the boom of all booms. Instead all are just teetering on the edge of going boom. Chancellor Merkel is daring to think and say the unthinkable, and talking about pulling Germany out of the Eurozone. While unlikely, Holland, Austria and Luxembourg, possibly others would likely have to follow Germany into a new D. Mark zone. The rump Eurozone would then be a very strange sick fiat currency, even more unloved than it is now. Below, the great finance chiefs of Europe set out on the road to Brussels once again.

Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.

Mark Twain.

Euro Finance Chiefs Meet as Belgium Urges Bigger Fund

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers travel to Brussels today as Belgium argues that the region’s 750 billion- euro ($1 trillion) bailout fund could be increased to fight contagion from the sovereign crisis.

Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders told reporters on Dec. 4 that the fund might be expanded if ministers decide to introduce a larger permanent facility when the current temporary one expires, breaking ranks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy. “We need to increase the total amount of money for the permanent mechanism coming into 2013,” he said. “If it is possible to organize it earlier, why not?”

European officials will meet at 5 p.m. Contagion has spread from Greece and Ireland on concern the rescue fund may not be large enough to support nations including Spain if needed. While Sarkozy and Merkel last month rejected expanding the fund, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Dec. 3 indicated governments should consider such a move.

European Union leaders last month agreed on a mechanism to smooth bond restructurings after 2013 when the European Financial Stability Facility will be replaced with the so-called European Stability Mechanism. Investors speculate that debt- strapped nations won’t be able to cut deficits fast enough.

-----European officials in Brussels are set to approve Ireland’s 85 billion-euro bailout to help stabilize the country’s banking system and push down the budget deficit. Reynders said ministers will also discuss the outlook for Portugal, which is struggling to quash speculation it will also need external aid.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.cfwg0ElnOI&pos=3

Of course while there they are supposed to beat up on Ireland once again, to make sure the Irish MPs vote tomorrow to take all the potatoes away from the hapless Irish people. The poor Irish are to sold by their politicians in to unrepayable debt slavery to bailout German, French and British banks. You really couldn’t make this sort of nonsense up. While in Brussels, they are also supposed to come up with a “fix” for Portugal and Spain who both insist that they don’t need one, and who both pretend that they’re in perfect financial health. If the Irish politicians wise up, and don’t vote through debt slavery tomorrow, Italy and France will join Portugal and Spain in looking very sick while proclaiming loudly of their excellent state of health. At that point on Wednesday, Chancellor Merkel might be meeting her advisors to actually try putting her new D.Mark zone in effect. Stay long gold and silver, this is no time to be in anything other than PMs and cash.

Ireland Relies on ‘Sugar Daddy’ for Budget Support: Euro Credit

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Among his supporters in the southwest of Ireland, lawmaker Jackie Healy-Rae is known as the “Sugar Daddy” for championing his region. Now Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen may depend on his former political ally to pass next year’s budget and keep international patrons sweet.

The government will lay out details tomorrow of 6 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of spending cuts and tax increases. Cowen’s Fianna Fail party has a minority of seats in parliament and may need the backing of independents such as Healy-Rae and Michael Lowry. They have yet to declare support for the budget.

The 67 billion-euro aid package Ireland sought from the European Union and International Monetary Fund depends on the passing of the budget. A collapse of the Irish rescue accord might reignite the euro region’s sovereign debt crisis and the contagion that swept across Europe last week, pushing the euro down to a 10-week low against the dollar and pummeling Italian, Belgian and Spanish government bonds.

“It is a real possibility that Ireland will not pass the proposed budget,” Mark Grant, managing director at Southwest Securities Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, said in a Nov. 30 e-mail. “Then another tailspin down for the euro and for European bank and sovereign debt is in the gun sights.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aD0s4YSNXDu0&pos=4

Lowry and Healy-Rae to decide budget stance today

DEAGLÁN de BRÉADÚN, Political Correspondent Monday, December 6, 2010

INDEPENDENT TDs Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae are to announce their voting intentions today on one of the toughest and most critical budgets for many years.

Fine Gael TD for Dublin South-East Lucinda Creighton said she would consider abstaining on the budget if Mr Lowry and Mr Healy-Rae failed to support it. She said her party had a similar responsibility.

Tánaiste Mary Coughlan last night said the budget, to be announced by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan tomorrow, would include a reduction in politicians’ pay and pensions.

“All these pensions and salaries will be reduced accordingly on the basis that, although people have forgotten that we did take massive reductions in ministerial pay, as did the Taoiseach last year, all politicians took reductions in their salaries and their expenses on the basis that others had to do with less and they would have to do with less,” she said on RTÉ’s The Week in Politics.

The Government currently has a majority of two in the Dáil, including Mr Lowry and Mr Healy-Rae.

If the two Independents abstain on the vote it could be tied. If they vote against it the budget will face defeat unless some Opposition TDs abstain or vote for it.

Mr Lowry, who represents Tipperary North, said he and his colleague from Kerry South would make a clear-cut decision.

“We will not abstain, we will vote either for or against, and both will be doing the same. The issues are too serious for a weak response such as abstention,” he said.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/1206/1224284848723.html

Richard Wittington, an honest dreamer, travels to London “where the streets are paved with gold”. Fairy Bow Bells realises his destiny, and supplying him with an introduction to leading derivatives gambler, Timmy Geithner….

At the Comex silver depositories Friday, final figures were: Registered 48.14 Moz, Eligible 58.98 Moz, Total 107.12 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks or scoundrels today, just a development in supercapacitors that I think will go on to become a game changer in the world of e-mobility, specifically the world of pure electric vehicles aka Battery Electric Vehicles, BEV. The end goal of our switch to renewable energy and to electric vehicles has to be a switch to BEV, hybrid electric vehicles are only a half way step. Why drag around two engines, power sources and have two different drive trains. If fast charging and range limitations can be overcome, the simplicity of BEV is the way to go. Below, a development with a graphene supercapacitor that I think just brought the age of the BEV a whole lot closer.

Graphene-based supercapacitor offers energy density comparable to NiMH battery, but with rapid charge and discharge

26 November 2010

Researchers from Nanotek Instruments and Angstron Materials have developed a graphene-based supercapacitor that exhibits a specific energy density of 85.6 Wh/kg at room temperature and 136 Wh/kg at 80 °C (all based on the total electrode weight), measured at a current density of 1 A/g. These values are comparable to those of NiMH batteries, the researchers note, but the new supercapacitor offers the ability to be charged or discharged within seconds or minutes. A paper on their work was published online in the ACS journal Nano Letters.

These are the highest energy density values ever reported with carbon electrodes without the pseudocapacitance contributions from a conducting polymer or metal oxide, the authors said, further stating that “We believe that this is truly a breakthrough in energy technology.”

The group, led by Bor Jang of Nanotek Instruments, reported in 2006 that graphene can be used as a supercapacitor electrode material. Despite a number of efforts to improve the specific capacitance of graphene-based electrodes, however, results fell sort of the theoretical capacitance of 550 F/g due to the high tendency for graphene sheets to re-stack together.

The team determined that the best strategy to achieve a high capacitance in such graphene-based electrodes is to use curved graphene sheets rather than flat sheets to prevent the sheets from sticking to one another face-to-face. The curved morphology enables the formation of mesopores accessible to and wettable by environmentally benign ionic liquids capable of operating at a voltage >4 V.

With the total electrode weight of a supercapacitor system being typically one-fourth to one-half of the total system weight, the system-level specific energy of graphene-based supercapacitors can exceed 21.4-42.8 Wh/kg, which is comparable to that of a modern nickel metal hydride battery used in a hybrid vehicle. This breakthrough energy storage device is made possible by the high intrinsic capacitance and the exceptionally high specific surface area that can be readily accessed and wetted by an ionic liquid electrolyte capable of operating at a high voltage.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/11/liu-20101126.html

Regular readers of the LIR know that I am also a contributing editor at the Rare Metal Blog. I covered Graphene and supercapacitors for them back in early October. Click on the link below for more on Graphene.

http://www.raremetalblog.com/2010/10/the-london-ree-report-graphene-and-supercapacitors.html

Giant Vampire Squid is causing havoc. He’s eating all the livestock and demanding extortionate bailouts via his henchman the horrible Timmy from the G-20. Bankrupt Old King Cole has decided to marry off his daughter to a rich Prince from a Chinese land far away….

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November:

DJIA: +178 Down. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +167 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. November is the sixth down month in a row.

Saturday, 4 December 2010

Weekend Update – December 04 2010

Flight to Tangible Assets.

Baltic Dry Index. 2168 -32
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised.

"The dollar will be wiped out."

Dr. Franz Pick

Has a flight into tangible assets started? It’s beginning to look like it might have. Hardly surprising with “Helicopter” Ben Bernanke already talking about QE3, if not QE forever, and Germany’s Chancellor Merkel talking about pulling Germany out of the euro. President Nixon’s great blunder of August 15 1971, putting the world on a fiat currency, dollar reserve standard, is coming to its end, this decade, possibly as early as next year. The benefits of fiat currency were all front loaded and long since dissipated by the G-7. Now to keep the whole casino capitalist, derivatives gambling system functioning, we have entered the age of Latin American style monetisation. The last holdout was the ECB, but they now seem to have clamoured aboard the monetisation band wagon. Once on QE it’s impossible to stop, without triggering the very event QE was adopted to prevent. Tangible assets and a new stock market bubble it is. Stay long precious metals.

Our central banksters are so deep into heresy, they all continue swearing black is white, and there’s no need for a bailout until suddenly one day there is. 2011 looks like being a year of serial currency crises.

"The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz

Bernanke Won't Rule Out 'QE3'

12/03/10 - 05:30 PM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke isn't ruling further quantitative easing measures beyond the Fed's initial plan to purchase $600 billion worth of Treasury securities by the middle of next year.

In an interview taped on Nov. 30 to be aired on CBS' 60 Minutes this coming Sunday, Bernanke "explains why the Fed announced its intention to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities, defending against charges the move will lead to inflation and not ruling out the purchase of more," according to a statement on the network's Web site.

The Fed announced its plans to buy $600 billion worth of longer-term Treasury securities on Nov. 3, saying it would purchase roughly $75 billion each month and look to complete the program by the end of the second quarter.

----Bernanke, who spoke to 60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley in Columbus, Ohio, also discusses "deepening unemployment, the prospects of a second recession and taxes" in the interview, which will air at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10938480/1/bernanke-wont-rule-out-qe3.html

Angela Merkel warned that Germany could abandon the euro

German chancellor said to have made comments during an EU summit dinner in Brussels at the end of October

Friday 3 December 2010 18.05 GMT

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has warned for the first time that her country could abandon the euro if she fails in her contested campaign to establish a new regime for the single currency, the Guardian has learned.

At an EU summit in Brussels at the end of October that was dominated by the euro crisis and wrangling over whether to bail out Ireland, Merkel became embroiled in a row with the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, according to participants at the event's Thursday dinner.

Merkel's central aim, which she achieved, was to win agreement on re-opening the Lisbon treaty so a permanent system of bailout funding and investor losses could be established to deal with debt crises that have laid Greece and Ireland low and are threatening Portugal and Spain. The Germans also called for bailed-out countries to lose voting rights in EU councils.

At the Brussels dinner on 28 October attended by 27 EU heads of government or state, the presidents of the European commission and council, and the head of the European Central Bank, witnesses said Papandreou accused Merkel of tabling proposals that were "undemocratic".

"If this is the sort of club the euro is becoming, perhaps Germany should leave," Merkel replied, according to non-German government figures at the dinner. It was the first time in the 10 months since the euro was plunged into a fight for its survival that Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse and the lynchpin of the euro's viability, had suggested that quitting the currency is an option, however unlikely.

-----EU finance ministers are to meet again early next week ahead of the summit on 16-17 December. The mood in Brussels is febrile and there have been rumours of another extraordinary summit or session of finance ministers this weekend.

Officials said today there were "no plans" for a weekend session. But it is virtually taken for granted that Portugal will need to be bailed out and the €750bn rescue fund agreed in May may need to be increased as insurance against a Spanish emergency. Two EU ambassadors told the Guardian Portugal would need to be rescued very soon, despite repeated public statements to the contrary.

More.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/03/angela-merkel-germany-abandon-euro

So no one should be very surprised that fiat currency is increasingly being parked in tangible assets of long term intrinsic value.

With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F.A. von Hayek

Mystery trader captures 80pc of London's copper market

A single trader has gobbled up to four-fifths of the copper traded in London, stockpiling it in warehouses.

By Rowena Mason, Energy Correspondent 11:30AM GMT 03 Dec 2010

The unknown buyer has been building up the dominant position since at least last week, putting a squeeze on the market.

According to the rules of the London Metal Exchange, the trader must lend out copper if it holds between 50pc and 80pc of the total to maintain day-to-day liquidity in the market. The trader is currently lending at a 0.5pc premium to the cash price.

The premium for spot price copper over delivery in three months' time reached $89 in the middle of this week - the highest in two years.

Stockpiles in London have fallen by more than a third since their levels at the beginning of the year.

LME copper was steady at $8,720 per tonne this morning, having reached a high of $8,732 earlier. A record price of $8,966 was hit in mid-November.

The large position is not the only reason the copper price is high.

There are fears of a shortfall in supply next year, as mining production is not expected to keep pace with rebounding demand following the recession.

Two US investment banks and one UK company also want to launch exchange-traded funds linked to copper, which is likely to suck demand out of the market further.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/8178797/Mystery-trader-captures-80pc-of-Londons-copper-market.html

Perhaps our mystery buyer is merely positioning ahead of our arriving age of e-mobility. Electric vehicles start arriving in quantity in 2011. Recharging points start arriving too from next year onwards. By 2012 we will have serious feedback on the pluses and minuses of EVs from the early adopters and fleet users. As that feedback gets acted upon by manufacturers, and as EV technology advances, EVs will start to take off 2015 onwards, I believe. But will we have enough copper to support it?

Shanghai powers up EV hub with £2.8bn investment programme

City official reveals plans to produce 100,000 electric vehicles a year by 2012

06 Sep 2010

China's position as one of the world's leading markets for electric vehicles (EVs) was underlined yesterday when government officials in Shanghai announced plans to invest 30bn yuan (£2.86bn) in the sector by 2012

According to reports in the China Daily newspaper, the city will build 25,000 charging stations for battery or hybrid power vehicles over the next two years.

Speaking at the International Forum on Chinese Automobile Industry Development in Tianjin, Wang Zhe, an official with Shanghai's new energy automobile promotion office, said the city was aiming to establish itself as one of the world's largest hubs for EVs.

"With government support in purchasing, R&D and infrastructure, Shanghai will be able to produce 100,000 new energy vehicles every year, including 60,000 passenger vehicles by 2012," he said. "About 20,000 of them will be for private use."

The city is also applying to the National Development and Reform Commission for additional subsidies for private buyers of other alternative energy vehicles.

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1803902/shanghai-powers-ev-hub-gbp28bn-investment-programme

"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."

Richard M. Ebeling

GI.

Friday, 3 December 2010

A Reprieve.

Baltic Dry Index. 2133 +37

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised.

"Never have the world's moneys been so long cut off from their metallic roots."

Murray M. Rothbard

Yesterday the ECB managed to face both ways at the same time. Amazingly they pulled it off for the day. Officially the ECB will follow German rules and refrain from mass purchases of Club Med bonds. In practice, the ECB will join the Fed and the Bank of England and do whatever it takes to prop up the bond of the failing members of Club Med. We have no nuclear option, say the ECB’s Trichet, well at least not now, not today. Watch what they do and not what they say. Stay long precious metals. The Euro is heading off on the road to Rome. Lira anyone.

"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

ECB bows to German veto on mass bond purchases

The European Central Bank has rebuffed calls for mass purchases of southern European bonds, despite growing pressure from Spain and Italy for dramatic action to buttress monetary union

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor 7:15PM GMT 02 Dec 2010

Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, said emergency lending support for eurozone banks would be extended until at least April next year, citing "acute tensions" in the market.

The delay removes the risk that Frankurt might soon pull away the prop holding up the Irish and Greek banking systems, as well as the Spanish cajas – or savings banks – and the sovereign states behind them. Traders say the ECB intervened directly in the weakest bond markets on Thursday to drive down yields and calm nerves.

However, Mr Trichet said there had been no decision to step up purchases of peripheral bonds to a whole new level – the so-called "nuclear option" – despite the potentially dangerous rise in Spanish, Italian, Belgian and even French yields over the past three weeks.

-----Rainer Bruderle, the German economy minister, spelled out Berlin's objections on Thursday just hours before the ECB meeting, insisting that "the permanent printing of money is not a solution".

A chorus of influential voices in Germany has warned that any attempt by the ECB to prop up Club Med with loose money would be a grave error, undermining German political support for monetary union.

"It would be fatal if the ECB was to squander its credibility," said Klaus Zimmerman, head of the DIW German Economic Research Institute. He said the bank is the last bastion of credibility after the serial breach of EU fiscal and debt rules.

"Broader purchases of the distressed eurozone debt would calm speculation for a short time, but would just invite risk-taking by investors in general," he said.

Thomas Mayer from Deutsche Bank said that if the ECB is put in a position of having to buy up to €2 trillion of debt to support Spain and Italy, it will cross a ruinous line. "If the ECB is thrown into the fire, who knows what will happen," he said.

----Lothar Binding from the Social Democrats said it was becoming "very difficult" to keep explaining to taxpayers why they should provide fresh money to these countries at a time of welfare cuts at home. He warned that the chasm between Europe's northern and southern nations had grown impossibly wide and that sooner or later the common currency might have to split in two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8177568/ECB-bows-to-German-veto-on-mass-bond-purchases.html

It might not make much difference for long. Sooner or later Club Med and Ireland have to restructure, the oh so polite way of saying default.

"We finished the year, and we reported that we had $17 billion of cash sitting at the bank's parent company as a liquidity cushion. As the year has gone on, that liquidity cushion has been virtually unchanged."

Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz. March 12, 2008. Bankrupt March 17th.

Italian Banks’ Costs Climb on Contagion Concern, Nation’s Debts

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Italian banks are paying the price of the nation’s debt, the second-highest in the euro zone, as the crisis threatening the region’s currency erodes their perceived creditworthiness and drives up borrowing costs.

The cost of insuring the debt of UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank, posted the largest monthly jump in November since February 2009, according to data provider CMA. UniCredit’s credit default swaps this week implied a junk rating to the company’s bonds for the first time, data from Moody’s Investors Service’s capital markets research group show. Swaps on Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the No. 2 bank, posted a record monthly increase.

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi faces a confidence vote on Dec. 14, adding to investor concern that Italy may struggle to finance its 1.76 trillion euros ($2.3 trillion) of debt should his government fall. While Italian banks skirted the real estate busts of Ireland and Spain, the crisis may drive up the cost of refinancing at least 118 billion euros of debt in 2011 and squeeze profitability that is already below the region’s average.

“Contagion fears due to the country’s high debt will affect Italian banks’ profitability because they will pay higher a cost of funding and will record losses on bonds they own,” said Stefano Girola, who helps oversee about 3 billion euros at Banca Albertini Syz & Co. Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna, a regional cooperative bank based in central Italy, is the only Italian lender he holds.

Customer Loans

Italian banks survived the worst financial crisis in 70 years by lending to individual and corporate clients, and steering away from bets on markets, analysts say. About 61 percent of their assets are loans to clients, higher than Spanish, U.K., French and German banks, according to data compiled by ABI, Italy’s banking association

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8l9BSC0kqvc&pos=3

In other news, Japan is joining China, India and the USA in killing off the scam of “climate change”, formerly known as global warming. Now if only moronic socialist Europe would do the same thing.

Cancún climate change summit: Japan refuses to extend Kyoto protocol

Talks threatened with breakdown after forthright Japanese refusal to extend Kyoto emissions commitments

Wednesday 1 December 2010 18.16 GMT

The delicately balanced global climate talks in Cancún suffered a serious setback last night when Japan categorically stated its opposition to extending the Kyoto protocol – the binding international treaty that commits most of the world's richest countries to making emission cuts.

The Kyoto protocol was adopted in Japan in 1997 by major emitting countries, who committed themselves to cut emissions by an average 5% on 1990 figures by 2012.

However the US congress refused to ratify it and remains outside the protocol.

The brief statement, made by Jun Arima, an official in the government's economics trade and industry department, in an open session, was the strongest yet made against the protocol by one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases.

He said: "Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances."

The move came out of the blue for other delegations at the conference.

"For Japan to come out with a statement like that at the beginning of the talks is significant," said one British official. "The forthrightness of the statement took people by surprise."

If it proves to be a new, formal position rather than a negotiating tactic, it could provoke a walk-out by some developing countries and threaten a breakdown in the talks. Last night diplomats were urgently trying to clarify the position.

The move provoked alarm among the G77, the grouping of developing countries who regard the Kyoto protocol as the world's only binding agreement on climate change cuts.

Japan gave no reasons for making its brief statement on the second day of the talks, but diplomats said last night that it represented a hardening of its line. "Japan has stated before that it wants only one legal instrument and that it would be unfair to continue the protocol," said one official who did not wish to be named.

Japan, which last night declined to clarify its position, has said in the past that it would not reject a new legally-binding overall agreement, but is concerned that it would be penalised if it signed up to cuts while other countries such as India and China were not legally bound to make similar cuts.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/01/cancun-climate-change-summit-japan-kyoto

Perhaps the Japanese were following events in Ice Age Europe, where even the infamous Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia has gotten itself snowed in. Perhaps they can use their famous hockey stick to warm their way back out.

Snow, freezing weather and high winds strand millions across Europe

Coldest start to December since records began causes major problems to road, rail and air travel on the continent

Thursday 2 December 2010 16.52 GMT

Millions of Europeans have been caught up in chaos caused by heavy snow, freezing temperatures and high winds following the coldest start to December since records began. Harsh conditions ground much of the continent's transport network to a halt and caused several deaths.

In Poland temperatures fell to -26C, leading to eight deaths from exposure, on top of several other cold-related deaths in recent days.

Almost the whole of Germany woke up to heavy snow this morning, which caused gridlock on roads and railway lines throughout the country. Hundreds of commuters were stranded at railway stations as conditions were deemed too severe for German trains to run.

At Leipzig and Frankfurt scores of passengers had to sleep in railway carriages as hotels ran out of room after train journeys were cancelled because of snow drifts.

Three people died in accidents on icy roads in Germany, while an undisclosed number were said to have died in other parts of central Europe because of exposure or traffic accidents.

Prague airport closed overnight following the heavy snow that gripped the whole of the Czech Republic.

More than 400 miles of traffic jams were reported in Belgium, with Flanders badly hit. Thousands of motorists were trapped in their cars in Brittany and Normandy, and 10,000 lorries were brought to a standstill as parts of France also faced harsh conditions. Hundreds of homes in central France were left without electricity after power cuts.

-----Meteorologists forecast that the snowy and freezing conditions would continue for several days due to the slow eastwardly movement of a low-pressure front over western Europe.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/02/snow-freezing-weather-europe

"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."

Richard M. Ebeling

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 48.14 Moz, Eligible 59.25 Moz, Total 107.39 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, was JP Morgan a crook or a scoundrel in the Madoff Ponzi scheme? A crook, says the trustee trying to get back billions for the defrauded victims. Below, JP Morgan gets sued and stands accused or being Madoff’s chief enabler. We look forwards to JP Morgan’s day in court. Of course with access to the Fed’s unlimited cave of instant wealth, JPM might just as well pay off the $6.4 billion claim and pass along the tab to the Fed and the hapless US taxpayers. On the magical system of fiat currency, nothing is real anymore, everything just an anarchic electronic entry to be one way or another, rigged and fixed away. Casino capitalism 21st century style.

Banks are an almost irresistible attraction for that element of our society which seeks unearned money.

J Edgar Hoover

Bernard Madoff trustee sues JP Morgan for $6.4bn

• JP Morgan was primary banker to Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities
• Lawyers claim bank thought returns were 'too good to be believable'

Friday 3 December 2010

The trustee charged with recovering billions lost by victims of disgraced financier Bernard Madoff yesterday sued JP Morgan for $6.4bn (£4.1bn) claiming the bank played a central role in his fraud.

A lawsuit filed in New York by Irving Picard alleges the bank ignored well-documented suspicions about Madoff and continued to collect fees and profits.

Picard, who took the action in the US bankruptcy court, is seeking to recover at least $1bn in fees and profits and $5.4bn in damages to be distributed to Madoff's victims.

"JP Morgan was wilfully blind to the fraud, even after learning about numerous red flags surrounding Madoff," said David Sheehan of Baker & Hostetler, legal counsel for the trustee.

He said that while many financial institutions enabled Madoff to carry out his fraud, JP Morgan was "at the very centre of that fraud, and thoroughly complicit in it". It was primary banker to Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities (BLMIS) for more than 20 years, and was responsible for knowing the business of its customers, he said.

"Madoff would not have been able to commit this massive Ponzi scheme without this bank. JP Morgan should pay the price for its central role in enabling Madoff's fraud."

According to the complaint, JP Morgan had clear and documented suspicions about the legitimacy of BLMIS's operations. "JP Morgan admitted in the months before Madoff's arrest that BLMIS's returns were too good – especially in down markets – to be believable, but for years they pretended that was not the case," said Deborah Renner, a partner at Baker & Hostetler.

"Just as in the children's fable, they knew the 'emperor had no clothes,' but looked the other way, allowing the fraud to continue."

JP Morgan strongly denied all the allegations. In a statement the bank said the suit "distorted the facts" and it would defend itself "vigorously" against the charges.

Victims lost billions when Madoff's business empire was exposed as a giant fraud in December 2008. He is serving 150 years in prison.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/03/bernard-madoff-trustee-sues-jp-morgan

Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.

Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.

Another weekend, and wintry one for much of Europe including the UK. I have to wonder what this is doing to Europe’s Christmas retail trade and to Europe’s winter crops. While it’s far too soon to know, and some winter wheat and barley can get replanted later with spring sown varieties, it might be a reasonable trade to buy in a few mid summer grain call options. Have a great weekend everyone

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November:

DJIA: +178 Down. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +167 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. November is the sixth down month in a row.

Thursday, 2 December 2010

Rigged, Corrupt and Doomed to Fail.

Baltic Dry Index. 2096 -03
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised.

Christmas is coming and the geese are getting fat

Please put a billion in the bankster’s hat

If you haven’t got a billion, a million will do

If you haven’t got a million, then God damn you!

Ebenezer Squid.

Yesterday the Fed was forced to reveal just who got what in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse, and unintentionally just how rigged the whole corrupt system is. Forget anything taught about capitalism in schools and universities, on our folly of fiat currency economies, the whole system operates to protect the favoured crony friends of the central banksters. Any wonder that telephone number bonuses are the norm. Shame about the unemployed though, especially as 2 million of them in America get tossed out into the cold of no benefits right after Christmas. This surely will not stand.

But first this. China, recognizing that this corrupt man made system of state deception will ultimately fail to the ruination of many, is busy hedging against fiat dollar collapse, or in reality fiat currency collapse, by rapidly increasing its imports of gold.

"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."

William F. Rickenbacker

China gold imports headed for big rise

Dec. 2, 2010, 12:22 a.m. EST

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s gold imports are on track for a sharp increase this year, with data for the first 10 months showing bullion shipments up more than four times amid rising interest among investors seeking out a hedge against inflation.

Bullion imported into China in the January-to-October period totaled 209.7 metric tons, compared to 45 metric tons in all of 2009, according to reports Thursday citing figures announced by Shanghai Gold Exchange Chairman Shen Xiangrong.

If current trends hold, China’s gold imports could rise nearly sixfold by the end of the year, according to calculations based on monthly averages

The figures offer a glimpse into China’s growing appetite for gold, reflected by the rush of new investment vehicles designed to satisfy interest in the precious metal, even as the government has yet to adopt the practice of releasing official statistics on the nation’s gold trade.

Shen reportedly said the volume of gold traded on the Shanghai Exchange totaled 5,014.5 metric tons, an increase of 43% from the same 10-month period a year earlier.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-gold-imports-headed-for-big-rise-2010-12-02

Now back to the rigged economy for the benefit of a few billionaires at the top of American society. It’s beyond me why ordinary Americans continue to pay taxes. Let those who benefit from the corruption pay taxes and let everyone else not in the inside loop keep the pittances they make against the day the whole rotten system implodes. And implode it will, we just don’t know when. Little wonder the squids and banksters are busy looting the system with outrageous telephone number bonuses as fast as they can, they fully realize this corrupt system is going to collapse. Stay long gold and silver. Ordinary Americans just like the poor Irish in the EU, will not put up with debt slavery just to keep a rigged system in favour of a few billionaires running. When early next year WikiLeaks exposes the corruption and illegality at a leading USA bank, I suspect the whole rigged system will shake to its core. Out of self preservation, I would bet that many on Wall Street are busy tapping each other. Diogenes where are you when we really need you.

"If the financial system goes down, our business is going down and, trust me, yours and everyone else's is going down, too."

Lloyd Blankfein. CEO Goldman Sachs. November 8, 2009

Fed Documents Breadth of Emergency Measures

By SEWELL CHAN and JO CRAVEN McGINTY Published: December 1, 2010

WASHINGTON — As financial markets shuddered and then nearly imploded in 2008, the Federal Reserve opened its vault to the world on a scope much wider and deeper than previously disclosed.

Citigroup, struggling to stay afloat, sought help from the Fed at least 174 times during one remarkable 13-month period. Barclays, the British bank, at one point owed nearly $48 billion to the Fed. Even better-off banks like Goldman Sachs took advantage of Fed loans offered at rock-bottom rates.

The Fed’s efforts to stave off a financial crisis reached far beyond Wall Street, touching manufacturers like General Electric, the Detroit automakers and Harley-Davidson, central banks from Britain to Japan and insurers and pension funds in Sweden and South Korea.

Under orders from Congress, the Fed on Wednesday released details of more than 21,000 transactions under the array of emergency lending programs and other arrangements it conjured up in response to the crisis.

The disclosures, which the Fed had resisted, offer the most detailed portrait of a panicky period in which the Fed lent money to banks, brokers, businesses and investors to keep the financial system functioning.

The documents show that some of the biggest names in American business were either coming to the Fed in need of a bailout, or trying to make money at a time when the Fed was trying to entice investors back into the markets. Among the latter were prominent investors and entrepreneurs like John A. Paulson and Michael S. Dell, and the pension funds of the Philadelphia Teamsters and Omaha’s teachers, who were betting they could profit if the rescue worked.

At its peak at the end of 2008, the Fed had about $1.5 trillion in outstanding credit on its books. The central bank, in essence, pumped liquidity, the lifeblood of credit markets, into the circulatory system of an economy that was experiencing a potentially fatal heart attack.

“I think our actions prevented an even more disastrous outcome,” said Donald L. Kohn, who was the Fed’s vice chairman during the crisis. Without the Fed’s help, he said, “liquidity would have dried up even more than it did, asset prices would have fallen even more than they did, and economic activity and employment would have fallen further and faster then they did.”

But Senator Bernard Sanders, independent of Vermont, who wrote a provision in the law requiring the disclosures by Dec. 1, reached a different conclusion.

“After years of stonewalling by the Fed, the American people are finally learning the incredible and jaw-dropping details of the Fed’s multitrillion-dollar bailout of Wall Street and corporate America,” he said. “Perhaps most surprising is the huge sum that went to bail out foreign private banks and corporations.”

More

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/business/economy/02fed.html?hp

Bank of America, Wells Fargo Led Fed’s TAF Borrowing

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. were among the top borrowers from the Term Auction Facility, one of the Federal Reserve’s first and longest-lasting efforts to combat the financial crisis.

Bank of America had three loans for $15 billion each outstanding from the facility as of Jan. 15, 2009, while Wells Fargo had three loans for $15 billion each on Feb. 26, 2009, according to documents released today by the Fed to comply with orders from Congress to identify recipients of emergency aid.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke created the TAF in December 2007 to let banks obtain cheaper funding without risking the stigma of loans from the central bank’s discount window. Under the program, banks bid for Fed loans at a rate determined through auctions. Borrowing peaked at $493.1 billion in March 2009 and began declining until the TAF closed in April 2010.

Because the program lent to banks, the Fed didn’t invoke an emergency legal clause allowing borrowing by non-banks in “unusual and exigent circumstances.” The central bank used the provision in 2008 to set up loan facilities for investment banks, money-market mutual funds and corporations

More.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ax.BoowWj4PU

European Banks Dominated Use of Fed’s Commercial Paper Program

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. subsidiaries of European financial institutions, led by Zurich-based UBS AG and Brussels- based Dexia SA were among the largest users of a government program to provide emergency short-term funding to U.S. companies and banks during the credit crisis.

Six European banks were among the top 11 companies that sold the most debt overall to the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. They sold a combined $274.1 billion, according to data made public today by the U.S. central bank. UBS sold $74.5 billion, the most among all borrowers. The largest U.S.-based user was insurer American International Group, selling $60.2 billion.

UBS’s figure of $74.5 billion represents the company’s total sales over the life of the program. The bank’s CPFF borrowings peaked at $37.2 billion, an amount the firm rolled over, or re-sold at maturity, once. Other companies rolled over debt in the program as well.

The CPFF was the only Fed program during the crisis that lent directly to non-financial companies, including Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc., and Harley-Davidson Inc. in Milwaukee. None of the debt purchased defaulted and the Fed earned $6.1 billion in interest income and usage fees through CPFF, according to the Federal Reserve.

The Fed released details about the commercial paper facility to meet disclosure requirements in the Dodd-Frank financial-oversight law signed by President Barack Obama in July. The central bank has never before revealed specific, transaction-level aspects of its lending.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afb7MNKAMjQY

Anyone who thinks that the Fed really made $6.1 billion in interest income and usage fees through CPFF, is deluded. In effect the Fed printed its own profit. Is crony capitalism great or what?

"The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday, final figures were: Registered 48.20 Moz, Eligible 59.79 Moz, Total 107.99 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks today, they are all busy working in the Fed. Time to let poor Bernie Madoff out, his big mistake was to steal small time. Stay long physical precious metals. The fiat dollar reserve standard has outlived its usefulness. The rest of the world will not go hungry and freeze, just so a corrupt bankster and squid elite can live out the life of Croesus. This corrupt system has started to implode. It would not surprise me to learn in a few years time that it was the Fed behind, and orchestrating the ongoing attack on the Eurozone’s Club Med. Just wait until WikiLeaks gets inside files from the central banks!  Any guesses as to who was behind yesterday’s stock market rally?

"There are some gambling banksters upon this earth of yours," returned God, "who lay claim to know us, and who do their deeds of passion, pride, ill-will, hatred, envy, bigotry, and selfishness in “Gods” name, who are as strange to us and all our kith and kin, as if they had never lived.”

With Apologies to A Christmas Carol, Charles Dickens.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November:

DJIA: +178 Down. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +167 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. November is the sixth down month in a row.

Wednesday, 1 December 2010

The Nuke Option.

Baltic Dry Index. 2099 -46
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised.

The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.

Walter Bagehot.

Today the nuke option, and no we are not talking about Mrs Palin’s dangerous coded call for someone to take out Wikileaks founder. Today’s nuke option is the call by more and more of Europe’s frightened banksters and dodgy leaders to abandon German economic sanity and go whole hog for Italy’s Lira solution. More on that later.

First this bad news from Asia. China excepted, East Asia is starting to slow. Very bad news for a Europe setting out on the yellow brick road of austerity. Below, Reuters with yesterday’s scary news. Our western stock markets are not priced for trouble in Asia. They are not priced for anything but the Fed forever propping up US stocks.

"We are in a world of irredeemable paper money - a state of affairs unprecedented in history."

John Exter

Japan, S.Korea factory output slumps as Asia shifts down

* Japan Oct factory output drop sharpest since Feb 2009

* S.Korea industrial output falls 3rd month in row

* Japan, Korea data follow Q3 slowdown in much of Asia

* Japanese Nov export orders gauge weakest in year

* India stands out, growth stronger than expected (Updates with India July-Sept GDP)

By Stanley White and Kim Yeonhee

TOKYO/SEOUL, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Factories in Japan and South Korea cut output in October, adding to evidence of an Asia-wide slowdown and boding ill for the rest of the world that has relied on the region to keep the global economy humming.

Japanese companies cut production for the fifth month and by the biggest margin since February 2009, while South Korea's industrial output fell for the third month in a row, disappointing markets which had bet on a rebound.

In contrast, India asserted itself as a regional standout, reporting on Tuesday that its economy grew 8.9 percent in the past quarter from a year earlier.

Asia's third-largest economy handily beat market forecasts, but it has a long way to go to become a global source of demand that could fill the void left by debt-ridden Europe and the United States, which are struggling to take off.

The fall in Japan's output was expected -- in fact a drop of 1.8 percent was smaller than the forecast 3.3 percent decline -- after a key stimulus measure, incentives for buyers of fuel-efficient cars, expired in September, and exports continued to cool.

More.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL3E6MU05H20101130

Now back to why Europe’s leaders, banksters and squids have gone into full panic mode. But even if we rebrand the Euro the Lira, would it do more than buy a year for the dying Euro? Will it even buy a year? Stay long physical gold and silver.

"The gold standard, in one form or another, will prevail long after the present rash of national fiats is forgotten or remembered only in currency museums."

Hans F. Sennholz

Ireland's Debt Servitude

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last updated: November 30th, 2010

Stripped to its essentials, the €85bn package imposed on Ireland by the Eurogroup and the European Central Bank is a bail-out for improvident British, German, Dutch, and Belgian bankers and creditors.

The Irish taxpayers carry the full burden, and deplete what remains of their reserve pension fund to cover a quarter of the cost.

This arrangement – I am not going to grace it with the term deal – was announced in Brussels before the elected Taoiseach of Ireland had been able to tell his own people what their fate would be.

The Taoiseach said afterwards that Brussels had squelched any idea of haircuts for senior bondholders: a lack of “political and institutional” support in his polite words: or “they hit the roof”, according to leaks.

One can see why the EU authorities reacted so vehemently. Such a move at this delicate juncture would have set off an even more dramatic chain reaction in the EMU debt markets than the one we are already seeing.

It is harder to justify why the Irish should pay the entire price for upholding the European banking system, and why they should accept ruinous terms.

I might add that if it is really true that a haircut on the senior debt of Anglo Irish, et al, would bring down the entire financial edifice of Europe, then how did any of these European banks pass their stress tests this summer, and how did the EU authorities ever let the matter reach this point? Brussels cannot have it both ways.

More

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100008812/irelands-debt-servitude/

Portugal banks face 'intolerable' risk unless austerity measures are implemented

Portugal's central bank has given warning that the country's banking sector faces "intolerable" risk unless its government implements planned austerity measures, as continuing fears for the health of the eurozone dragged the euro to a 10-week low against the dollar.

By Emma Rowley 9:00PM GMT 30 Nov 2010

Failure to consolidate the public finances will put the country's banks in danger, the Bank of Portugal said in a report, which followed Prime Minister Jose Socrates last week pushing through an austerity budget.

The Portuguese government says no bail-out is needed, but markets are already pointing the finger at the country as the next to follow Greece and Ireland in requesting a rescue package.

"The risk will become intolerable if we do not see the implementation of measures that consolidate public finances in a credible and sustainable way," the central bank said.

Ratings agencies have downgraded Portugal's sovereign debt, leaving its banks shut out from market funding and reliant on the European Central Bank (ECB) for their borrowing needs.

The banks must address this dependency, the central bank said, as "large-scale and permanent use of financing from the Eurosystem is unsustainable".

Meanwhile, Spanish lenders are now paying the biggest premium ever on their debt compared with other banks in Europe - a record 166 basis points more than the average for other euro lenders, according to Bank of America.

The warnings came as the euro dropped below the $1.30 mark for the first time since the middle of September, while fears over the eurozone's debt crisis pushed bond yields - the rewards investors demand to take on the debt - to new highs. The spreads between Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields over the German benchmarks widened to the biggest levels since the euro was launched in 1999 - around 3 and 2.1 percentage points respectively.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8171455/Portugal-banks-face-intolerable-risk-unless-austerity-measures-are-implemented.html

Mounting calls for 'nuclear response' to save monetary union

As Europe's debt crisis spreads ever wider, the EU authorities are coming under intense pressure to move beyond piecemeal rescues and resort to radical action on a nuclear scale.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 6:00AM GMT 01 Dec 2010

Spain's former leader Felipe Gonzalez warned that unless the European Central Bank steps into the market with mass bond purchases, the EMU system will lurch from one emergency to the next until it blows up.

Alluding to Portugal and Spain, he said a third country will need a rescue as soon as "January or February", and fourth soon after, at which point it will "contaminate the whole of Europe and get out of hand".

"If the ECB bought just a third as much public debt as the US Federal Reserve is doing, we could stop the speculation," he said.

Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, said Greece, Ireland and Portugal are all insolvent already, and Spain is close behind. The combined rescue needs of these countries is likely to exhaust the EU's €440bn (£368bn) bail-out fund, which in reality has just €250bn in usable money.

"Once Spain needs assistance, the support of the ECB will be critical. As the sole source of unlimited liquidity and as an institution that can take decisions without the need for political or popular approval, it is the only institution that can take actions of sufficient size and with sufficient speed to stave off major financial instability," he said.

Dr Buiter said the rescue packages for Greece and Ireland put off the day of reckoning. At some point creditors will have to take their punishment. While Europe is now the epicentre of the debt crisis, concerns may ultimately spread to Japan and the US. "There is no such thing as an absolutely safe sovereign," he said.

He said the ECB would have to continue propping up the banking systems of crippled eurozone states - whether it liked it or not.

----There was a whiff of systemic contagion as Belgian yields blew through 4pc, drawing unwelcome attention to a country that has not had a government for five months and appears to be sliding towards Flemish-Walloon dissolution.

"The big change is that Belgium has gone from being the weakest of the strong group to the best of the weak group", said Koen Van de Maele from Dexia.

Most alarming is the surge in Italian yields to 4.7pc, raising fears that the world's third biggest debtor, with more than €2 trillion of outstanding bonds, could be drawn into the maelstrom.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8171403/Mounting-calls-for-nuclear-response-to-save-monetary-union.html#disqus_thread

A permanent Governor of the European Central Bank would be one of the greatest men in Euroland. He would be a little `monarch` in every City; he would be far greater than the Elected Leaders. He would be the personal embodiment of the ECB; he would be constantly clothed with an almost indefinite prestige. Every nation in business would bow down before him and try to stand well with him, for he might in a panic be able to save almost anyone he liked, and to ruin almost anyone he liked. A day might come when his favour might mean prosperity, and his distrust might mean ruin. A position with so much real power and so much apparent dignity would be intensely coveted.

With Apologies to Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday, final figures were: Registered 48.03 Moz, Eligible 59.97 Moz, Total 108.00 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

While the world’s dodgy scientists and even dodgier politicians meet in Sun King luxury in sun drenched Cancun Mexico to discuss global warming, today we present the view facing the serfs of Europe. Carbon taxes anyone? Perhaps Europe’s shivering huddled masses yearning to be warm can burn some of Goldman’s carbon futures. But first this from the global warming nutters.

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

By Charles Onians Monday, 20 March 2000

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Now we now return to reality. Why would anyone pay any attention to anything put out by the now discredited Climate Research Unit of the dodgy science University of East Anglia.

Colder than Reykjavik: UK set for more snow as temperatures drop to -1C

Freeze spreads to London and the south, with arctic winds predicted to sweep in from northern Russia

Tuesday 30 November 2010 18.48 GMT

Fresh snowstorms are expected to continue for at least two more days across much of the United Kingdom, after 24 hours which saw falls in almost every part of the country.

Strengthening northeasterly winds have taken the national average temperature to –1C (30.2F), lower than Reykjavik in Iceland and parts of Greenland. These are expected to trigger a further week of cold weather payments to four million households.

For the first time in the current chill, the worst in November for 17 years, snow today reached London and England's most southerly counties. Roads, trains and airports including Heathrow and Gatwick were all seriously disrupted.

Trains were cancelled on Scotrail, the East Coast main line and four other operators, while delays and cancellations spread to Eurostar, on which there was upheaval during the cold snap last winter. Although the brunt of the weather continued to hit the eastern half of the country, temperatures plummeted on the west coast, too.

More

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/nov/30/uk-snow-forecast-weather-freezing

Sweden braces for record freeze

Published: 30 Nov 10 10:43 CET

Stockholm is forecast to experience its coldest seasonal temperatures for over 100 years this week as winter weather takes hold of the country, according to the Swedish Meteorological Institute (SMHI).

Temperatures across the country are expected to drop to record lows for the first week of December, with the exception of the far north, with averages coming in 7-10 degrees Celsius below normal.
Stockholm registered -11 degrees Celsius at the weekend, the coldest November temperature since 1965 and the mercury is set to plunge further on Wednesday and Thursday, dropping as low as -15.
"It is far below average temperatures, which usually oscillate around zero at this time of the year," said Alexandra Ohlsson, a meteorologist with SMHI.
Dalarna and Jämtland in northern Sweden will also be hit with the harsh weather. The Storsjön lake in the heart of Jämtland's main city Östersund has already frozen over in most parts.
SMHI forecasted that in southern and central areas the cold will ease off somewhat come Friday. Northern Norrland will however drop to minus 14-17 degrees Celsius in the middle of the day.

More.

http://www.thelocal.se/30516/20101130/

Travel Chaos and Beauty 11/30/2010

Snow and Freezing Weather Hits Germany

Winter arrived early in Germany and much of Europe this week, causing thousands of accidents and travel chaos but also creating snowy landscapes of exquisite beauty. Temperatures are expected to remain well below freezing for the rest of the week and more snow is expected.

Winter hit Germany with a vengeance on Tuesday as heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures caused some 2,000 traffic accidents on icy roads and led to more than 250 flight cancellations at Frankfurt airport alone. At least three people died in accidents on icy roads.

Many roads and motorways became impassable due to ice and snowdrifts, and there were long traffic jams across the country. On the A-96 motorway near Munich, an accident cause a 10-kilometer tailback.

Some 200 passengers had to be evacuated from a high-speed ICE train near the Bavarian town of Kronach on Monday night after snow caused a tree to topple onto an overhead line. The train was stuck and temperatures inside fell sharply because of a power outage. The passengers were taken to a nearby school gymnasium and provided with hot drinks and food before they continued the journey in buses.

In the town of Sigmaringen in the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg, the temperature plunged as low as 18 degrees Celsius below zero (-0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday night. More snowfall is expected in the coming days and it is forecast to get even colder.

In the eastern city of Leipzig, an initially harmless snowball fight among several dozen youths escalated into a full-blown riot involving 500 people in which stones, bottles and firecrackers were hurled.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,732088,00.html

Cold snap sends Europe into deep freeze

2010-12-01 00:12:57

BEIJING, Nov. 30 (Xinhua) -- An ongoing cold wave with heavy snow and record low temperatures has delayed air flights and snarled road travel across much of Europe.

The Danish National Observatory reported Monday that Northern Jutland reached minus 3.8 degrees Celsius on Nov. 27, Denmark's lowest reading in November in the past 120 years.

Meanwhile, a rare snowstorm with strong winds hit Copenhagen, the capital of Denmark, on Sunday. The storm blanketed Copenhagen with more than 10 cm of snow and temporarily closed the city's airport the next morning for the first time in 25 years.

Heavy snowfall caused the cancellation of 125 flights at the Munich airport in southern Germany on Monday, a spokesman said.

Capacities were halved at the airport so its two runways could be cleared of snow.

Road travel in the region was also hampered by accidents and long traffic jams, police said.

The snowfall caused more than 100 accidents, leading to many minor injuries. Roads were blocked by more than 50 lorries that crashed or got stuck in the snow.

Many provinces in western and central France have seen power outages in recent days because of the bad weather.

Meanwhile, in the Lorraine area in eastern France, some highways were closed because of snow and low temperatures.

At the same time, wintry weather also paralyzed public transportation in some cities in central France.

French health authorities also reported that a total of 54 people so far have been taken to hospitals for treatment after breathing carbon monoxide due to malfunctioning heating equipment.

Weather forecasters said the cold wave could stay in most parts of France for the next week. On Dec. 1 and Dec. 3, some areas could possibly see drop of temperatures to a record low.

----- In Poland and Czech, most areas suffered heavy snows last weekend. On Nov. 26 and 27, Austria and Switzerland also saw their first snow of the winter.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-12/01/c_13629252.htm

Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?

-----But something is unusual about the current sunspot cycle. The current solar minimum has been unusually long, and with more than 670 days without sunspots through June 2009, the number of spotless days has not been equaled since 1933. [813 days through June 2010. GI]

----During the period from 1645 to 1715, the Sun entered a period of low activity now known as the Maunder Minimum, when through several 11- year periods the Sun displayed few if any sunspots. Models of the Sun's irradiance suggest that the solar energy input to the Earth decreased during that time and that this change in solar activity could explain the low temperatures recorded in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

----The same data were later published [Penn and Livingston, 2006], and the observations showed that the magnetic field strength in sunspots were decreasing with time, independent of the sunspot cycle. A simple linear extrapolation of those data suggested that sunspots might completely vanish by 2015.These observations caused researchers to wonder whether the characteristics of sunspots are different now than in other solar cycles.
http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102678927575&s=1&e=001UyfO_wN_C81IrqYbA3w8N3hkc9KCTd3b8zGDXYSyIqfs4WqgttvCceErdow7pOYUPq1VjzV52Gys14jzZ86u_Cfl4pUoOrsCLnR6j8T6J0sqSWAceSG0JDfK9x8Cij2iSMIUEfQlhro=

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way

A Tale of Two Cities. Charles Dickens

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November:

DJIA: +178 Down. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +167 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. November is the sixth down month in a row.