Baltic Dry Index. 2229 -65 Brent Crude 75.55
Spot Gold 1808
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 23/12/21 World 277,525,937
Deaths 5,393,668
A very merry, safe Christmas 2021 to one and all.
As Credit Swiss turns cautious on the omicron threat to the US and European economy, others are turning more optimistic that the omicron variant isn’t the fast spreading dangerous threat it first appeared.
By this time next month we should know one way or the other. Hopefully even sooner. Perhaps as early as the first week of January.
Asia-Pacific markets rise; JD shares in Hong Kong plunge 7% after Tencent says it will dilute stake
Published Wed, Dec 22 2021 6:42 PM EST Updated 2 Hours Ago
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific rose in Thursday trade, as fears over the omicron Covid variant eased.
Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese e-commerce titan JD.com plunged 7.09% while Tencent surged 4.02%. Those moves came after Tencent announced it will distribute majority of its shares in JD.com to its shareholders, effectively diluting its stake in the e-commerce firm from around 17% to approximately 2.3%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed earlier gains, rising 0.16% by the afternoon.
Mainland Chinese stocks were higher, with the Shanghai composite up 0.13% while the Shenzhen component climbed 0.256%. Investors continued monitoring Covid developments in the country after the major Chinese city of Xi’an entered a lockdown on Thursday as authorities seek to control a flare-up of Covid cases.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan nudged 0.49% higher while the Topix index gained 0.6%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.23%.
Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia gained 0.22%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.53% higher.
Overnight stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 261.19 points to 35,753.89 while the S&P 500 rose 1.02% to 4,696.56. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.18% to 15,521.89.
Those gains on Wall Street came after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday granted authorization for Pfizer’s Covid treatment pill, the first oral antiviral drug cleared during the pandemic.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/asia-markets-omicron-covid-variant-currencies-oil.html
‘Considerable’ risk that U.S. and much of Europe will need COVID lockdowns this winter, Credit Suisse says
Last Updated: Dec. 21, 2021 at 3:11 p.m. ET
After
taking an initial wait-and-see approach on the new omicron variant of
coronavirus, Credit Suisse CS,
+3.17%, one of the world’s largest investment banks, now
sees a “considerable” risk that the U.S. and large parts of Europe will be
unable to avoid “stringent” lockdowns this winter.
Credit Suisse’s view is at odds with that of President Joe Biden and the
nation’s top infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, both of whom have
indicated no need to impose fresh lockdowns in the U.S. Instead, the president announced new
steps Tuesday afternoon to alleviate the burden that omicron
is placing on the healthcare system, by making 500 million free at-home tests
available and opening vaccination clinics across the country.
The assessment by the bank’s investment committee comes as global stock indexes
were broadly rebounding
on Tuesday, helped by optimism about Biden’s plan to
fight rising COVID-19 cases and the possibility that vaccines may be more
effective than previously thought in fighting the fresh variant.
Still, while Americans remain weary about renewed curbs to their freedom, new
COVID restrictions have been prevalent in Europe, where
the Netherlands has closed all nonessential shops, bars and restaurants until
mid-January; Germany and France have banned travelers from the U.K.; and
Ireland has imposed curfews on pubs and restaurants.
Zurich-based Credit Suisse says its thinking is based on the rapid pace at
which omicron is spreading in the U.S., U.K., and other countries.
“This suggests that the risk is considerable that the USA as well as large
parts of Continental Europe will likely not be able to avoid stringent
lockdowns over the winter months in order to provide relief to a challenged
health care system,” according to an investment committee report released
Tuesday.
“Similarly,
given the high infectiousness of the Omicron variant, Asian countries also run
the risk of renewed restrictions,” the report said.
Credit Suisse’s investment committee released its conclusions following a
same-day, ad-hoc meeting, in which it also decided to go to a neutral
allocation on stocks from a previously moderate overweight position. In
particular, the committee “decided to reduce the developed market equity
weighting in portfolios to strategic levels,” after remaining in a wait-and-see
mode earlier this month.
More
But, in possibly the best Christmas gift of all, having “crossed” with some of the common cold virus genes, might it be closer to a common cold severity than to the delta variant severity?
Omicron could burn through the U.S. — and potentially hasten the Covid pandemic’s end, says expert
Published Wed, Dec 22 2021 3:22 PM EST
Just weeks ago, the U.S. was on track to end the pandemic in 2022. Then, omicron hit — throwing scientists’ projections into disarray.
The rapidly spreading Covid variant is now responsible for 73% of U.S. cases, a rate which White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci called “unprecedented” during a Good Morning America appearance on Tuesday.
Now, some researchers say omicron could actually hasten the virus’ transition from pandemic to endemic, albeit with large numbers of illnesses and potential deaths along the way.
The theory: Due to omicron’s high rate of transmission and danger to unvaccinated and non-boosted people, hospitalizations and deaths could rise significantly in the coming weeks and months — but survivors could emerge with a degree of so-called “natural immunity” that could help protect against Covid’s next variant of concern.
“As all the public health folks have been saying, it’s going to rip right through the population,” says Dr. David Ho, a world-renowned virologist and Columbia University professor. “Sometimes a rapid-fire could burn through very quickly but then put itself out.”
Notably, natural immunity isn’t nearly as reliable as vaccine-enabled immunity. Roughly 62% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated as of Wednesday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only 30% of those people have received a booster dose, crucial for bolstering protection against omicron.
It’s a “speculative” theory, Ho says, based on how most viruses typically act — and Covid has certainly taken some unpredictable turns over the past two years. But the possibility has been discussed among infectious disease experts for some time.
Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of infectious diseases at New Hyde Park, New York-based hospital network Northwell Health, says the “best-case scenario” would be a highly contagious Covid variant that doesn’t make most people particularly sick, and creates some level of temporarily baseline immunity in the U.S.
“It could certainly help end large spikes of deadly Covid with high hospitalizations,” Farber says.
More
Some glimmers of hope are emerging on omicron, but experts stress caution
Published Wed, Dec 22 2021 8:57 AM EST
The rapid spread of the omicron variant of Covid-19 is forcing governments worldwide to impose strict containment measures, but there are some glimmers of hope in the data currently available, according to experts.
While it is still too early to know for sure the severity of the variant, studies so far indicate that the damage it causes is likely to be at worst akin to previous variants, and possibly milder.
Recent data from South Africa — where the strain first emerged — along with a study from Hong Kong and developments from vaccine manufacturers, seem to point to some potential elements of good news amid the overarching dangers. And hospitalization and death rates are so far significantly lower than with previous variants.
“We have anti-viral drugs which will work against omicron, vaccines that work to an extent and can be improved, and lateral flow tests which allow us to check our infection status in real time,” Lawrence Young, virologist and professor of oncology at the University of Warwick, told CNBC on Tuesday.
Still, medical experts agree that the higher transmissibility of the virus poses a severe threat to health care systems even if symptoms are milder, because the sheer volume of infections will likely lead to more people needing hospital care.
More
Finally, if the everything Magic Money Tree bubble bursts in 2022, will tech heavy Softbank survive?
Cash-stripped SoftBank turns to Apollo-led group for $4bn loan
Tuesday 21 December 2021 8:44 pm
Japanese conglomerate SoftBank is turning to a group of investors led by private equity giant Apollo Global Management for a $4bn loan as it scrambles to recover its cash on hand after a series of portfolio setbacks.
A group including Apollo, SoftBank’s insurance affiliate Athene Holding, and other investors including financial institutions, mutual funds and endowments, will provide the loan to the group’s beleaguered $40bn tech-focused Vision Fund 2 by the end of the year.
As part of the loan arrangement, the Japanese investment giant will pledge some of its stakes in its portfolio tech companies, a source familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal, who first reported the news.
At the same time, it marks a significant push into direct lending on Apollo’s behalf, after it launched a $12bn platform to move into the area historically reserved for banks last year.
It’s cash that SoftBank evidently needs, after its profit – particularly that of its tech-focused Vision Fund and Vision Fund II – suffered in the past few months.
The conglomerate has been investing making new investments at a rapid rate, but at the same time, its gains from various IPOs in recent months have been dragged down by falling valuations after Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns.
Adding insult to injury, earlier this month SoftBanks suffered a shares slump after three of its high-profile investments Didi, Arm and Grab were hit with setbacks in 24 hours.
Since listing at the beginning of the month, its portfolio company Grab has seen its share price plummet by 44 per cent.
In November, the group reported a second quarter loss after its Vision Fund unit took a $10bn hit from a decline in the share price of its portfolio companies.
After caving into investor pressure and announcing a $9bn share buyback – a go-to strategy for the group – alongside its results, Softbank founder Masayoshi Son was less optimistic than usual.
“What happened to us? We are in the middle of a blizzard,” Son said at an investor presentation following the company’s results.
“The SoftBank Vision Fund performance is not something I’m proud of.”
https://www.cityam.com/cash-stripped-softbank-turns-to-apollo-led-group-for-4bn-loan/
I made a killing on Wall Street a few years ago...I shot my broker.
Groucho Marx.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Taxpayer bill for Bulb could top £1bn as energy prices soar
Wednesday 22 December 2021 7:22 am
Running failed energy supplier Bulb could could cost taxpayers over £1bn as the price of gas continue to rocket, according to reports.
Bulb was left to shoulder the spiralling cost of gas after administrators were instructed, at short notice, by the government to buy most of its wholesale energy needs, sources told The Times, which first reported the news.
The government set aside £1.7bn to allow Bulb to continue supplying energy to its customers as it tumbled into administration last month.
The company was put into special administration so it could continue to run and provide energy for its 1.6 million customers.
The price of gas shot up again yesterday, with benchmark UK month-ahead prices up over a fifth at around 450p a therm last night.
Analysts at investment bank Investec yesterday warned that the energy crisis will extend into the new year, with UK households facing a “painful” £700 increase in their energy bills.
The capped bill for average use could rise from £1,277 to £2,000 when the market regulator reviews the current limits next April, analysts estimated.
The potential increase in the consumer price cap compounds the financial pressures facing UK households.
Alongside rising national insurance costs and surging inflation, Investec previously revealed that carnage across the UK energy industry combined with the de-facto nationalisation of Bulb – would leave UK energy consumers on the hook for a £3.2bn bill.
Wholesale costs have risen five-fold since the start of the year, with 25 UK energy firms collapsing in the past three months alone – directly affecting four million customers.
Sunken suppliers have pointed the finger at the consumer price cap – with Bulb Energy revealing in its administration announcement that the current cap restricted charges to consumers to 70p per therm, even though spiralling wholesale charges meant it cost £4 per therm to supply gas.
https://www.cityam.com/taxpayer-bill-for-bulb-could-top-1bn-as-energy-prices-soar/
European gas prices reach record highs as flows on key pipeline move towards Russia
Tuesday 21 December 2021 7:12 pm
European gas prices climbed to record highs, as flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline moved eastwards towards Russia today,
The front-month wholesale Dutch gas price, the European benchmark, rose more than 16 per cent to a record high of €171.40 per megawatt hour on Tuesday, while British gas contracts hit a new peak of £4.29 per therm.
The Kremlin denied the reversal in flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline had no political backdrop .
Spokespersons for two of Gazprom’s biggest German buyers, RWE and Uniper, told Reuters the state-backed gas giant was still meeting delivery obligations.
Westward gas flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the major routes for Russian gas to Europe, had been falling since Saturday, according to data from network operator Gascade.
After stopping early on Tuesday, flows reversed direction later in the day.
Yamal flows are expected to stay in the reverse mode at the Mallnow metering point on the German-Polish border at an hourly volume of over 1,250,000 kilowatt hours (kWh/h) for the rest of Tuesday.
This is not the first time flows have moved eastwards on the pipeline amid market disruption this year.
Russia has faced criticism from the International Energy Agency over the shortages of energy supplies, while industry experts and politicians have accused the country of withholding gas deliveries to Europe amid political tensions over Ukraine, alongside delays in the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
These claims have been consistently denied by The Kremlin – who said the eastward flows were commercially motivated.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “There is absolutely no connection to Nord Stream 2, this is a purely commercial situation.”
Gazprom also recently reported export growth into Europe has slowed to less than five per cent in its full-year results.
It is now looking to use strategic reserves to continue supplying European customers, amid fears of blackouts on the continent.
The energy giant has been booking extra capacity at auctions for delivery via Ukraine and to Germany via the Yamal route when it sees requests.
However, it had not booked capacity for exports via Yamal for Tuesday.
Russia is currently responsible for 35 per cent of Europe’s natural gas supplies.
In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed accusations it was using gas supplies as a weapon as “politically-motivated blather.”
The country is set for fresh talks with the US over tensions in Ukraine, with Moscow amassing 175,000 troops nears its border, while Nord Stream 2’s certification in Germany has been pushed back due to concerns over governance.
"From a strictly economic point of view, buying gold in a major inflation and holding it probably presents the least risk of capital loss of any investment or speculation."
Henry Hazlitt.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Israeli drug prevents 100% of COVID patients from deteriorating in trial
Published: DECEMBER 22, 2021 21:55 Updated: DECEMBER 23, 2021 07:55
All 18 COVID-19 patients hospitalized with moderate or severe symptoms who were administered the drug Amor-18 developed by Israeli biotech company Amorphical in a phase II clinical trial recovered and were discharged in a few days, the company announced Wednesday. Of the 19 individuals who were given a placebo, six had to be transferred to intensive care, and two died.
The trial was conducted at the Ziv Medical Center in Safed and led by the directors of the coronavirus department, Dr. Kamal Abu Jabal and Dr. Nashat Abu Saleh. As part of compassionate care, two other patients in a very serious condition were given the drug and they both recovered and were discharged.
“Since the patients treated with the drug recovered within a few days and were released to their home, this was 100% successful,” Abu Saleh said.
Amor-18, which uses Amorphous Calcium Carbonate (ACC) as the main ingredient, was administered orally or by inhalation. As explained by the company, ACC has the ability to modulate acidic pH changes around each cell. These changes affect the capability of the coronavirus to penetrate the cells and replicate. This allows the drug to prevent the virus from spreading and therefore the patients from deteriorating.
More
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-689543
Case drop may show South Africa's omicron peak has passed
Wed, December 22, 2021, 8:10 AM
JOHANNESBURG (AP) — South Africa's noticeable drop in new COVID-19 cases in recent days may signal that the country's dramatic omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, medical experts say.
Daily virus case counts are notoriously unreliable, as they can be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays and other fluctuations. But they are offering one tantalizing hint — far from conclusive yet — that omicron infections may recede quickly after a ferocious spike.
South Africa has been at the forefront of the omicron wave and the world is watching for any signs of how it may play out there to try to understand what may be in store.
After hitting a high of nearly 27,000 new cases nationwide on Thursday, the numbers dropped to about 15,424 on Tuesday. In Gauteng province — South Africa’s most populous with 16 million people, including the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria — the decrease started earlier and has continued.
“The drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the center of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak," Marta Nunes, senior researcher at the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, told The Associated Press.
“It was a short wave ... and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalizations and deaths,” she said. It is "not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease.”
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-africas-case-drop-may-081029640.html
Omicron at Least Doubles Risk of Getting Infected on a Plane
· Business class likely safer than economy, IATA’s advisor says
· New strain dominates major markets on cusp of holiday season
ByAngus WhitleyDecember 21, 2021, 11:28 PM EST
Aircraft passengers are twice or even three times more likely to catch Covid-19 during a flight since the emergence of the omicron variant, according to the top medical adviser to the world’s airlines.
The warning comes as travelers take to the skies in their thousands for year-end holidays and family reunions, and as omicron becomes the dominant Covid strain in a matter of weeks -- in the U.S. it now accounts for more than 70% of new cases.
More
NYC pushes COVID-19 booster shots with $100 incentives
By Simon Druker Dec. 21, 2021 / 5:56 PM
Dec. 21 (UPI) -- New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Tuesday that his city will start offering $100 incentives to people who get a COVID-19 booster shot.
The program is being offered through SOMOS, a physician-led community care network in the Bronx, Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn.
The mayor made the announcement after President Joe Biden announced changes to the federal government's response to the Omicron variant of the virus.
This is not the first time New York has offered financial incentives to encourage people to get vaccinated.
The new incentive program runs until Dec. 31.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, some serious reading on Tesla and Alibaba. Perhaps someone at the SEC should be reading this stuff too!
Sadly, I’m not qualified to know if this masterclass takedown is correct, but I’ve no reason to think that it isn’t. Perhaps someone at the SEC might care to comment.
Perhaps not Chairman Gensler, he probably doesn’t know much more about this sort of thing than me, but there must be at least a few bright lads and ladettes employed there that know how to read these filings.
Where’s that accountant who tried to blow up the Madoff fraud, unsuccessfully as it turned out, before Bernie Madoff managed to do it himself?
It’s not about Tesla…or Alibaba…..it’s much bigger than that….
December 15, 2021
As you know, the primary value proposition I try to bring to my readers is:
I scour the planet for financial reports and government documents that nobody reads or cares about. I read them, interpret them and explain exactly how these documents and the underlying transactions/trends will eventually change your life forever. Hey, it’s what I do. I consider it a public service. You can thank me later…
So let’s start today’s discussion with a general review and primer on “how to read Chinese SEC filings”… then we’ll apply what we’ve learned to both the last Tesla 10-K and the current Alibaba 6-K , 20-F (and prior filings) and we’ll see what conclusions we can draw. After that, we’ll move on and dig into the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA) Fact Sheets and Investments Statistical Digest and finish up with a review of the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) annual Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation as it applies and compares to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) visualization data. What fun! Are you ready!
More, much, much more!
http://www.deepthroatipo.com/its-not-about-tesla-or-alibaba-its-much-bigger-than-that/
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The mission of the SEC is to protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets; and facilitate capital formation. The SEC strives to promote a market environment that is worthy of the public's trust.
Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.
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