Baltic Dry Index. 3423 +71 Brent Crude 76.15
Spot Gold 1785
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 09/12/21 World 268,149,536
Deaths 5,295,841
"It's strange that men should take up crime when there are so many legal ways to be dishonest. “
Al Capone.
In an effort to divert the media from yet another UK government scandal, Her Majesty’s Government is embarking on giant mistake.
Although the omicron variant seems to be more infectious, especially among the young, we simply don’t have any data yet about its severity. Early data from South Africa suggests that it’s less severe than the delta variant, but that is based on very little science, however there is no data suggesting omicron is more severe.
HMG are taking a political gamble that will likely back fire at the polls if it turn into a massive costly unnecessary blunder.
European markets head for positive open as investors watch omicron and U.S. jobs data
Published Thu, Dec 9 2021 1:08 AM EST
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open in positive territory on Thursday as investors continue to monitor developments around the omicron Covid variant and look ahead to key U.S. data.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 15 points higher at 7,352, Germany’s DAX 25 points higher at 15,715, France’s CAC 40 up 14 points at 7,027 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 60 points higher at 26,784, according to data from IG.
Global markets have rallied in recent days as traders bet that the omicron Covid variant’s economic impact won’t be as severe as initially thought. Still, some experts have urged caution, saying there are still unknowns about the variant.
U.S. stock index futures were little changed during overnight trading on Wednesday, after the major averages posted a third straight day of gains. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday as investors assessed risks surrounding the omicron variant.
While preliminary evidence from South Africa, where the variant was first identified, may suggest that omicron is milder than the delta strain, the World Health Organization’s technical lead on Covid-19 said Wednesday it’s “too early to conclude” that.
The WHO’s director general said Wednesday that omicron could change the course of the pandemic. The omicron variant has so far been found in 57 countries across the world.
Meanwhile, Pfizer’s CEO said people might need a fourth Covid-19 shot sooner than expected. His comments came after preliminary research showed the omicron variant can undermine protective antibodies generated by the vaccine which the company developed with BioNTech.
The vaccine-makers released results from an initial lab study on Wednesday that showed a third dose of vaccine is effective in fighting the omicron variant, while the initial two-dose vaccination series dropped significantly in its ability to protect against the new strain.
Investors will be keeping an eye on the latest weekly jobless claims data from the U.S. for a gauge of the country’s economy; the data will be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists are expecting the number of first-time-filers to come in at 211,000, according to estimates from Dow Jones.
There are no major European earnings on Thursday. On the data front, Germany’s trade data for October will be published and Ireland’s inflation data for November.
Omicron hit to economy: New Covid restrictions may cost businesses £4bn in December
Thursday 09 December 2021 7:23 am
The UK economy should brace itself for a £4 bn a month hit and see taxpayers foot the bill for more emergency support as new Covid restrictions to clamp down on the spread of the Omicron variant come into force, a think tank has warned.
The right-wing Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) said Plan B measures being considered by the Government could “easily knock” 2% off the country’s economic output.
It also cautioned the Chancellor may need to launch more support schemes to help hard-hit sectors and firms, adding further to the UK debt pile.
The IEA called for “much stronger evidence” that the new variant sweeping across the UK is more deadly and not just more infectious before putting in place further measures.
Julian Jessop, economics fellow at the IEA, said: “Even without a full national lockdown, the additional Covid restrictions apparently being considered in Whitehall could easily knock 2% off GDP (gross domestic product) – costing the UK economy £4 billion a month – and force the taxpayer to stump up billions more to prevent a new wave of bankruptcies and job losses.
“This is on top of all the social costs and harms to people’s wellbeing and liberties, as well as the risk of further disruption to children’s education.”
Under the Government’s Plan B, people could be told to work from home to limit the spread of the virus.
Covid vaccine passports may also be needed for events with crowds, such as football matches.
Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has suggested people may be told to work from home imminently as Omicron spreads fast, with the variant set to take over from the Delta strain before Christmas.
He added that a UK-wide lockdown to deal with the threat of Omicron cannot be ruled out, although the current threat is unclear
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Euro zone inflation will take longer to fall back to 2%, says ECB
December 8, 2021 11:54 AM GMT
FRANKFURT, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation will take longer to fall back to target than earlier thought but so far there is no evidence that high prices are becoming embedded in wages, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday.
High inflation is challenging the ECB, which has little experience dealing with rapid price growth and complicates a crucial policy decision due on Dec. 16.
While the ECB has maintained that inflation is temporary and will come back under target on its own, a growing number of policymakers are voicing their concern that a less benign outcome is also possible, so the bank should curb stimulus.
While largely repeating the ECB's recent stance, de Guindos acknowledged that inflation risks were "moderately" on the upside and the drop would be slower than once thought.
"We are fully convinced that inflation will start to decline at the beginning of next year and in the second half of next year inflation will start to decelerate even more and will converge with our target of 2%," de Guindos told a conference.
"Perhaps the convergence towards the 2% target will take a little bit longer but no doubt that inflation will decelerate in 2022," he added.
Inflation hit 4.9% last month, a record high, and most private forecasters do not see it back under the ECB's 2% target until very late 2022.
More
Shanghai nickel buoyed by low stocks, posts best day in two weeks
December 8, 20217:47 AM GMT
Dec 8 (Reuters) - Shanghai nickel prices rose on Wednesday to record their best session in two weeks, as inventories in the city's exchange warehouses hovered near record lows, while the demand outlook remained robust.
The most actively traded February nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 1.1% higher at 148,200 yuan ($23,329.03) a tonne, after rising as much as 2.1% earlier in the session.
Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange was flat at $20,180 a tonne as of 0735 GMT.
Refined nickel inventories in ShFE warehouses were at 5,563 tonnes last week, hovering near a record low of 4,455 tonnes hit in August. LME stocks of the metal fell 58% from April to 110,358 tonnes, their lowest since December 2019.
LME cash nickel premium over the three-month contract was $150.80 a tonne, indicating tight nearby supplies.
"We believe demand for nickel for the production of stainless steel and non-stainless steel will hold up in 2022," analysts at ANZ said in a note, adding that demand was likely to get a boost from targets for electric vehicle sales and renewables.
Column: London nickel market tightens as China lifts imports: Andy Home
December 7, 2021 1:00 AM GMT
LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel stocks have been falling relentlessly since April of this year.
Exchange inventory has slumped to 110,688 tonnes from 264,606 tonnes over the last six months with almost half of what is left cancelled in preparation for physical load-out.
LME time-spreads have been tight since the middle of October. The cash premium hit $190 per tonne last month and was still a wide $141 at Friday's close.
Some of what is leaving the LME's warehousing system is heading for China.
The country's imports of refined nickel have accelerated appreciably since April with the cumulative January-October tally of 208,000 tonnes up 96% on the same period last year.
China's recent import appetite is now stretching availability in a market already caught out by the strength of demand this year.
China's imports of refined nickel were 35,500 and 34,500 tonnes in September and October respectively, the highest monthly tallies since December 2017.
Cumulative imports of 208,000 tonnes over the first 10 months of this year are almost double last year's equivalent level and the strongest since 2016.
China had been importing less refined nickel in recent years as it stepped up purchases of raw materials, particularly Indonesian nickel pig iron destined for the stainless steel sector.
More
U.S. third-quarter labor costs revised sharply higher
December 7, 2021 1:58 PM GMT
WASHINGTON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. unit labor costs surged more than initially thought in the third quarter, suggesting inflation could remain high for a while.
The Labor Department said on Tuesday that unit labor costs, the price of labor per single unit of output, accelerated at a 9.6% annualized rate last quarter. That was revised up from the 8.3% pace reported in November.
Labor costs rose at a 5.9% pace in the April-June quarter. They increased at a 6.3% rate compared to a year ago, instead of the previously reported 4.8% rate.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast unit labor costs would rise at an unrevised 8.3% pace.
Pandemic-related shortages amid snarled supply chains have boosted inflation well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Wages are also rising as companies scramble for workers.
Hourly compensation increased at a 3.9% rate in the third quarter, rather than at a 2.9% rate as previously reported.
The surge in labor costs came at the expense of worker productivity, which fell at a downwardly revised 5.2% rate last quarter. Productivity was previously reported to have tumbled at a 5.0% pace. It grew at a 2.4% pace in the April-June quarter.
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-third-quarter-labor-costs-revised-sharply-higher-2021-12-07/
"From a strictly economic point of view, buying gold in a major inflation and holding it probably presents the least risk of capital loss of any investment or speculation."
Henry Hazlitt.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
So-Called “Stealth” Omicron Offshoot Identified By Scientists In Three Countries
Wed, December 8, 2021, 1:43 AM
Scientists have identified a new Covid-19 lineage responsible for a number of recent Covid cases in South Africa, Australia and Canada that displays “many of the defining mutations of B.1.1.529 (Omicron) [but does] not have the full set. These cases also have “a number of their own unique mutations,” according to analysis posted on information sharing platform GitHub. The platform is widely used by top researchers to share data and information related to Covid-19.
As a result of those similarities and differences with the original Omicron, which was first identified about two weeks ago, the new sequence is being called BA.2, while the original variant has been dubbed BA.1.
The new lineage is being called “stealth” Omicron by some scientists and news outlets because, while PCR tests do identify it as Covid, the mutations on BA.2 defy a shortcut used by scientists to identify a Covid case specifically as Omicron.
Why does that matter? It makes tracking the spread of Omicron more difficult at a time when surveillance of the new variant is critical to understanding it. Only seven cases of BA.2 have been identified thus far, reported the Guardian, the picture is still far from complete.
Per the Guardian: “To have two variants, BA.1 and BA.2, arise in quick succession with shared mutations is ‘worrying’ according to one researcher, and suggests public health surveillance ‘is missing a big piece of the puzzle.’ ”
It is also unclear exactly how or if the unique mutations in BA.2 will impact its transmissibility and virulence.
The original Omicron (now BA.1) has been identified in 19 states, according to CDC data and over 50 countries, said CDC Director Rochelle Walensky on Tuesday.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/called-stealth-omicron-offshoot-identified-014318927.html
Germany records highest daily COVID deaths since February
December 8, 2021 8:06 AM GMT
BERLIN, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Germany recorded the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 since February on Wednesday as it battles to stop a fourth wave of the pandemic.
A total of 69,601 new infections were reported, 2,415 more than the same time a week ago, and another 527 people died - the highest number since Feb. 12 - to bring the total to 104,047, the German Robert Koch Institute for disease control said.
However, the country's seven-day incidence rate of cases per 100,000 people continued to fall, declining to 427 from 432 on Tuesday.
Experts have questioned whether the metric means Germany has passed the peak of this wave of the pandemic or whether the figures are unreliable because some health authorities are so overwhelmed, particularly in the hardest-hit areas.
The country agreed last week to bar the unvaccinated from access to all but the most essential businesses such as grocery stores, pharmacies and bakeries and to ramp up the vaccination campaign.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
New system will use drones to clean hard-to-reach solar panels
Ben Coxworth December 07, 2021
Solar panels continuously accumulate dust, dirt and other debris, plus they're often located atop tall buildings or in remote areas – this means that they need to be cleaned, but doing so is difficult. That's why a drone-based setup is now being developed to do the job.
The "drone-in-a-box"-type system is being created via a collaboration between Israeli solar farm services company Solar Drone and Israeli drone manufacturer Airobotics.
It will incorporate a quadcopter which is housed inside a weatherproof docking station located near the solar panels in question. At regular intervals, two doors on top of the station will slide open, the drone will rise up out of it on a powered platform, and the aircraft will then take off and fly up to the panels.
Utilizing technology such as LiDAR sensors and mapping cameras, the drone will subsequently align itself above each panel, then spray it with cleaning fluid before moving on to the next one. Once the cleaning task is complete, the aircraft will land back on the docking station and be lowered into it. If necessary, a robotic system will then replace its battery with one that's freshly charged, and replace its cleaning fluid tank with one that's full.
According to Solar Drone, the system should be 25 percent less costly than utilizing other panel-cleaning techniques. And unlike at least one previously proposed drone-based setup, the aircraft won't actually touch the panels, so there's little chance of it damaging them.
There's presently no word on when the system may enter use. In the meantime, you can see a demo in the video below.
More
Sources: Solar Drone, Airobotics
Henry Hazlitt.
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