Baltic Dry Index. 5674 +238 Brent Crude 80.55
Spot Gold 1759
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 07/10/21 World 237,089,319
Deaths 4,840,904
It is always the best policy to speak the truth, [about inflation] unless, of course, you are an exceptionally good liar.
The Fed, with apologies to Jerome K. Jerome, Idler Magazine 1892.
The US stock casinos U-turned from down to up yesterday, reassured that a political deal on raising the US debt ceiling is underway, aided by better news from falling oil and natural gas prices.
President Putin rode in to rescue Europe from a soaring natural gas price with the promise of more Russian gas to come ahead of winter.
The oil price declined from multi year highs as an unexpected build in US oil inventory coincided with the natural gas price decline following President Putin’s promise to rescue Europe this winter.
I suspect that both oil prices and natural gas prices have further to rise in the weeks and months ahead, unless the northern hemisphere winter is unusually mild.
As for a US debt ceiling deal, no one really expects the USA to start defaulting on its debts and payroll/pensions obligations, generating financial havoc across the global economy.
More churn and burn in the casinos as the Great Inflation/Stagflation really gets into its stride.
Asian shares rise on stronger global risk appetite as oil prices ease
October 7, 20214:56 AM BST
HONG KONG, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Asian shares rallied on Thursday, taking heart from a late recovery on Wall Street after U.S. politicians appeared near to a temporary deal to avert a federal debt default and as Russia reassured Europe on gas supplies, calming volatile markets.
Oil prices also dropped back from multi-year highs hit a day earlier, having been a major contributor to this week's equities sell off, while U.S. benchmark Treasury yields and major currencies steadied amid the calmer mood.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.25% in early trade, regaining ground lost in recent days to be little changed on the week.
"Sharp increases in energy prices have clearly contributed to the latest leg up in bond yields, which has been accompanied by weakness in equity markets around the world," analysts at Capital Economics wrote in a note.
As oil prices came off on Thursday, there were gains in share benchmarks in Korea (.KS11) up 1.3%, Australia (.AXJO) up 0.64%, and Hong Kong (.HSI) up 2%.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.89%, and U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis , gained 0.42%.
Chinese markets remained closed for a holiday.
U.S. crude dipped 0.34% to $77.17 a barrel, extending a fall from late on Wednesday after hitting a seven-year high of $79.78 earlier that day. Brent crude was steady at $81.04 per barrel, off its three -year high of $83.47 also hit on Wednesday.
The falls followed an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stocks.
Gas prices also fell, a day after Russian leaders indicated that supply to Europe could increase, which contributed to a late rally on Wall Street after declines in European stock markets. read more
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 <.SPX gained 0.41% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.47%, also boosted by a proposal from the Senate's top Republican, Mitch McConnell, to allow an extension of the federal debt ceiling into December.
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-wrapup-1-2021-10-07/
Oil drops for 2nd session on unexpected rise in U.S. inventories
October 7, 20212:03 AM BST
SINGAPORE, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped for a second session Thursday, under pressure from an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stocks that raised concerns over demand after prices rallied to multi-year highs.
U.S. crude slid 0.43%, or 33 cents, to $77.10 a barrel after the market climbed on Wednesday to $79.78, the highest since November 2014. Brent crude 2 cents, to $81.06 a barrel.
"Commercial stockpiles of crude rose ... last week, according to EIA data," ANZ said in a note. "Stockpiles of gasoline also surged raising concerns of weaker demand."
U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administraion (EIA) said, against expectations for a modest dip of 418,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories also rose, while distillate inventories were down slightly.
Global oil prices have jumped more than 50% this year, adding to inflationary pressure that could slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and impact consumer demand. Natural gas and coal prices have also climbed.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) said on Monday it would stick to its pact for a gradual increase in oil output, sending crude prices to multi-year highs. read more
OPEC+'s decision raise to oil output modestly and gradually, despite this year's surge in prices, was partly driven by concern that demand and prices could weaken, sources close to the group told Reuters. read more
Record gas prices slow LNG investment in Asia; N. America scrambles on exports
October 7, 20215:03 AM BST
SINGAPORE/NEW YORK/BENGALURU, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Some of the world's biggest importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are reducing orders in the face of a 500% price surge within a year, raising concerns among major producers about potential long-term destruction of demand.
LNG buyers, including numerous emerging economies in Asia, are balking at prices that have doubled just within the past month, while a growing number of exporters in North America are straining to boost export capacity that will still take years to come online.
Natural gas is viewed as a more acceptable fossil fuel as growing economies like India, China and Pakistan try to reduce carbon emissions, because it burns more cleanly than oil and coal. But the surge in natural gas prices is prompting power providers to revert to coal and fuel oil and causing a rethink on new LNG investments in Southeast Asia, which was expected to be the heart of LNG demand growth.
Within Asia, which accounts for 70% of global LNG imports, a majority of long-term contracts are oil-linked. But South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh - which together account for 20% of Asia's imports - have a much higher exposure to spot LNG prices, which are currently at a record high of over $50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu)
That's raised alarm among developers in Southeast Asia, as analysts say plans for new LNG regasification terminals may now be delayed given the high LNG prices and after government budgets were stretched by costly COVID-19 outbreaks, a source familiar with contract negotiations said.
"New buyers are under a lot of pressure to justify signing contracts at these prices, so they have been slow to progress discussions," said the source, who has noted a sharp fall in enthusiasm among potential buyers to even discuss LNG projects compared to a year ago. He declined to provide more details or be named due to the sensitive nature of the deals.
For big U.S. export terminal operators, rising prices were initially welcome. However, the volatility in costs makes it harder to sign additional long-term contracts and is a source of frustration, as they know that they will only be able to add incremental export capacity in the next year.
More
Next, more signs of rising trouble in the EU economy. As goes Germany, so goes the EU?
An inflationary wage-price spiral next?
German industrial orders fall more than expected in August
October 6, 20218:11 AM BST
BERLIN, Oct 6 (Reuters) - German industrial orders fell more than expected in August on weaker demand from abroad following two months of unusually strong gains due to major contracts, data showed on Wednesday.
The figures published by the Federal Statistics Office showed orders for goods 'Made in Germany' were down by 7.7% on the month in seasonally adjusted terms. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a drop of 2.1% on the month.
German car companies are struggling to meet a post-pandemic surge in demand since the start of the year due to a lack of microchips and other intermediate products which is holding back the recovery of Europe's largest economy.
The steep drop on the month was partly caused by previous orders for planes, ships and other large vehicles which had pushed up orders by 4.9% in July and 4.6% in June, the office said.
Without this distorting effect, industrial orders were down by 5.1% in August.
Another reason for the weaker-than-expected headline figure was lower demand from abroad, especially from clients outside the euro zone area.
The economy ministry also pointed to an unusually strong decline in orders for cars which it partly linked to special holiday effects in some regions with large automobile factories.
Nonetheless, overall industrial orders remained at a historically high level and were already 8.5% above their pre-crisis levels of February 2020, the month before Germany was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ministry said.
----The main problem in German manufacturing is still the lack of semiconductors and other intermediate products as the supply chain problems still prevent orders from being processed.
More
German construction workers threaten nationwide strike for higher wages
October 6, 2021 9:57 AM
BERLIN, Oct 6 (Reuters) - German construction workers said on Wednesday they were likely to go on strike for higher wages and other payments, increasing pressure on employers to finally meet a range of demands including more compensation for long commutes to building sites.
“A nationwide strike in construction is more likely than ever before in the past 20 years,” Robert Feiger, head of the IG Bau labour union, told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper ahead of the start of an arbitration.
The labour union is calling for a wage increase of 5.3% for nearly 900,000 construction workers as well as the alignment of tariffs in eastern and western Germany more than three decades after its reunification.
Above all, the union wants employers to agree to higher compensation for workers’ increased travel costs when driving back and forth each day to often remote construction sites.
This demand has become the biggest obstacle in negotiations, though it has been on the table since 2018, Feiger said.
“Without the employers really giving in, there will be no agreement with us this time,” Feiger warned.
The arbitration in the wage conflict, that has been going on since May, starts on Wednesday and is headed by the President of the Federal Social Court, Rainer Schlegel.
If Schlegel does not find a solution to which employees and employers can both agree, Germany is heading towards its first nationwide strike in the construction sector since 2002.
“And believe me: We know how to strike,” Feiger said.
The European Central Bank is closely watching inflation expectations and wage developments in the euro zone and also Germany, the bloc’s largest economy.
Economists are looking for signs that higher inflation expectations lead to higher wage increases which could kick off a wage-price spiral, seen as a prerequisite for inflation to remain at an elevated level also in the medium term.
Overall German wages rose by 5.5% on the year in the second quarter, outstripping consumer price inflation of 2.4% in the same period, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed.
---- In another wage conflict, Germany’s 16 federal states and labour unions will start negotiations on Friday about higher pay for more than 2.3 million public sector workers.
Labour unions are demanding a 5% pay increase for a period of 12 months. To support workers with lower income, the wage agreement should guarantee a pay hike of at least 150 euros per month.
More
“Europe exemplifies a situation unfavourable to a common currency. It is composed of separate nations, speaking different languages, with different customs, and having citizens feeling far greater loyalty and attachment to their own country than to a common market or to the idea of Europe".
Professor Milton Friedman, The Times 19 November 1997.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Factbox-How COVID-19 in Southeast Asia is threatening global supply chains
October 6, 2021 10:08 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Fresh coronavirus outbreaks in Southeast Asia have hurt factory activity across industries, threatening the region’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and disrupting global supplies of goods such as apparels, automobiles, and electronics.
Coronavirus curbs have led companies to shut factories and suspend or reduce operations at a time when Asia’s manufacturing sector is already grappling with rising raw material costs and signs of a slowing Chinese economy.
Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand are three of the region’s major manufacturing hubs and produce goods for some of the world’s largest consumer brands.
VIETNAM
A coronavirus wave since April forced Vietnam’s largest cities and industrial hubs to impose strict lockdowns, prompting electronics, apparel and footwear manufacturers to suspend or reduce operations. The restrictions have been eased in recent weeks.
The outbreak initially hit northern industrial areas, where suppliers for Apple, Samsung and other global tech firms are located.
In May, the northern province of Bac Giang ordered four industrial parks, including three that house production facilities of Taiwan’s Foxconn, to temporarily shut down.
The outbreak spread further south and, in July, Ho Chi Minh City and neighbouring industrial provinces imposed strict lockdown measures.
That month, Taiwan’s Pou Chen Corp, which makes footwear for Nike and Adidas, suspended operations at its plant in Ho Chi Minh City and Changshin Vietnam, a South Korean firm manufacturing shoes for Nike, shut three of its factories.
Nike has cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of holiday delays. Buyers of Apple’s new iPhone 13 are facing longer-than-expected delivery times because of the outbreak in Vietnam, where components for the device’s new camera module are assembled.
The Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association said several international fashion brands have shifted their orders away from Vietnam and 60% of apparel and footwear makers in the country have been fined for slow deliveries.
MALAYSIA
Several automakers and semiconductor companies have said in recent months that pandemic-related disruptions in Malaysia were hitting supply chains.
Malaysia imposed a lockdown in June as infections hit record levels but has gradually eased restrictions on manufacturing since July.
Curbs in Malaysia, which supplies about 67% of the global rubber glove market, also forced many glove makers to suspend operations in June and July.
Malaysia is home to factories serving semiconductor makers such as Europe’s STMicroelectronics and Infineon, as well as major carmakers including Toyota Motor Corp and Ford Motor Co.
STMicroelectronics said in July it temporarily closed its assembly plant in Malaysia for 11 days due to the coronavirus.
German chipmaker Infineon said in August the firm will take a hit in the high double-digit million euros from shutdowns at its Malaysia plant.
That same month, Ford Motor Co said it would temporarily shutter the U.S. plant that builds its best-selling pickup truck due to a semiconductor-related parts shortage caused by the Malaysian outbreak.
More
Global energy mess the first of many more shocks in the clean power era
In the throes of fundamental change, the world's energy system has become strikingly more fragile and easier to shock
David R Baker, Stephen Stapczynski, Dan Murtaugh and Rachel Morison
Oct 05, 2021
The world is living through the first major energy crisis of the clean-power transition. It won’t be the last.
The shortages jolting natural gas and electricity markets from the U.K. to China are unfolding just as demand roars back from the pandemic. But the planet has faced volatile energy markets and supply squeezes for decades. What’s different now is that the richest economies are also undergoing one of the most ambitious overhauls of their power systems since the dawn of the electric age — with no easy way to store the energy generated from renewable sources.
The transition to cleaner energy is designed to make those systems more resilient, not less. But the actual switch will take decades, during which the world will still rely on fossil fuels even as major producers are now drastically shifting their output strategies.
“It is a cautionary message about how complex the energy transition is going to be,” said Daniel Yergin, one of the world’s foremost energy analysts and author of The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations.
In the throes of fundamental change, the world’s energy system has become strikingly more fragile and easier to shock.
Take the turmoil in Europe. After a colder-than-normal winter depleted natural gas inventories, gas and electricity prices soared as demand from rebounding economies surged too fast for supplies to match. Something similar probably would have happened had COVID-19 struck 20 years ago.
But now, the U.K. and Europe rely on a very different mix of energy sources. Coal has been cut back drastically, replaced in many instances by cleaner-burning gas. But surging global demand this year has left gas supplies scarce. At the same time, two other sources of power — wind and water — have had unusually low output, thanks to unexpectedly slower wind speeds and low rainfall in areas including Norway.
In other words: A strained global gas market triggered Europe’s record-setting spike for electricity prices — and the transition amplified it.
The pain hitting Europe is an ominous sign of the types of shocks that could strike more of the globe.
More
“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”
“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Sweden, Denmark pause Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for younger age groups
October 6, 20217:15 PM BST
STOCKHOLM, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Sweden and Denmark said on Wednesday they are pausing the use of Moderna's (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccine for younger age groups after reports of possible rare cardiovascular side effects.
The Swedish health agency said it would pause using the shot for people born in 1991 and later as data pointed to an increase of myocarditis and pericarditis among youths and young adults that had been vaccinated. Those conditions involve an inflammation of the heart or its lining.
"The connection is especially clear when it comes to Moderna's vaccine Spikevax, especially after the second dose," the health agency said, adding the risk of being affected was very small.
Shares of Moderna fell 4.9%, or $16.08, to $316.11 in afternoon trading.
----Denmark said that, while it used the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as its main option for people aged 12-17 years, it had decided to pause giving the Moderna vaccine to people below 18 according to a "precautionary principle".
"In the preliminary data ... there is a suspicion of an increased risk of heart inflammation, when vaccinated with Moderna," the Danish Health Authority said in a statement.
It referred to data from a yet unpublished Nordic study, which would now be sent to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for further assessment. Final data was expected within a month, it added.
More
Aspirin lowers risk of COVID: new findings support preliminary Israeli trial
The treatment reduced the risk of reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%. ICU admissions were lower by 43%, and an overall in-hospital mortality saw a 47% decrease.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF OCTOBER 6, 2021 12:53
Over-the-counter aspirin could protect the lungs of COVID-19 patients and minimize the need for mechanical ventilation, according to new research at the George Washington University.
The team investigated more than 400 COVID patients from hospitals across the United States who take aspirin unrelated to their COVID disease, and found that the treatment reduced the risk of several parameters by almost half: reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%, ICU admissions by 43%, and overall in-hospital mortality by 47%.
“As we learned about the connection between blood clots and COVID-19, we knew that aspirin – used to prevent stroke and heart attack – could be important for COVID-19 patients,” said Dr. Jonathan Chow of the study team. “Our research found an association between low-dose aspirin and decreased severity of COVID-19 and death.”
Low-dose aspirin is a common treatment for anyone suffering from blood clotting issues or in danger of stroke, including most people who had a heart attack or a myocardial infarction. Although affecting the respiratory system, the coronavirus has been associated with small blood vessel clotting, causing tiny blockages in the pulmonary blood system, leading to ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome.
Israeli researchers reached similar results in a preliminary trial at the Barzilai Medical Center in March. In addition to its effect on blood clots, they found that aspirin carried immunological benefits and that the group taking it was 29% less likely to become infected with the virus in the first place.
“Aspirin is low cost, easily accessible and millions are already using it to treat their health conditions,” said Chow. “Finding this association is a huge win for those looking to reduce risk from some of the most devastating effects of COVID-19.”
Why did CDC change its definition for ‘vaccine’? Agency explains move as skeptics lurk
By Katie Camero Updated September 27, 2021 9:39 AM
Social media is calling bluff on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for modifying its definition of the words “vaccine” and “vaccination” on its website. Before the change, the definition for “vaccination” read, “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce immunity to a specific disease.” Now, the word “immunity” has been switched to “protection.”
The term “vaccine” also got a makeover. The CDC’s definition changed from “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease” to the current “a preparation that is used to stimulate the body’s immune response against diseases.” Some people have speculated that the unannounced changes were the CDC’s attempt to hide the fact COVID-19 vaccines are not 100% effective at preventing coronavirus infection.
More
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254111268.html
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
World's fastest EV charger adds 100 km of range in 3 minutes
Nick Lavars October 04, 2021
Limiting how long depleted electric vehicles need to be plugged in for will go a long way toward driving their adoption, and bit by bit we are seeing advances that shave valuable minutes off the waiting times. Technology company ABB is making inroads in this area, having just announced what is claimed to be the world's fastest electric vehicle charger, capable of delivering 100 km (62 miles) of range in a matter of minutes.
ABB's new Terra 360 is billed as the most powerful EV charger in the world, and is positioned as a solution for refueling stations, urban charging stations, retail parking and commercial electric vehicle fleets. Customizable LED lighting strips and an optional 27-inch LCD display guide the user through the charging process and the state of their battery, and counts down the minutes until the charging is complete.
And that might not be many minutes at all, according to ABB. The Terra 360 has a maximum output of 360 kW and the company says it can fully charge an electric car in 15 minutes of less. Or if it's just a top up that's needed while the user stops off for some snacks, the 100 km of extra range can be added through less than three minutes of plug-in time.
The Terra 360 looks much like a typical gasoline pump, with four ports and five-meter (16 ft) cables enabling charging of up to four vehicles at once, albeit at a slower 90 kW.
---- There are comparable charging rates on offer out there, including those along the Electrify America EV charging network. ABB is actually providing some of the charging equipment for this infrastructure, which is expected to span 3,500 DC fast-charging outlets across the US by the end of this year, offering charging speeds as high as 350 kW – said to be the fastest on the market currently. For context, the latest generation of Tesla's Superchargers offer peak rates of 250 kW.
“With governments around the world writing public policy that favors electric vehicles and charging networks to combat climate change, the demand for EV charging infrastructure, especially charging stations that are fast, convenient and easy to operate is higher than ever,” said Frank Muehlon, President of ABB’s E-mobility Division. “The Terra 360, with charging options that fit a variety of needs, is the key to fulfilling that demand and accelerating e-mobility adoption globally.”
You can check out the promo video for the Terra 360 below.
Some of the queries Quakers are asked to consider, are: "Do you maintain strict integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public revenue?"
Probably why there a no Quakers on Wall Street, in the City or Parliament.
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