Thursday 28 October 2021

Iran To The Rescue. A US v China War?

 Baltic Dry Index. 3808 -248 Brent Crude 82.86

Spot Gold 1800

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 28/10/21 World 245,793,895

Deaths 4,987,910

“I’m older than you, and must know better.” 

President Biden, with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.

News that Iran will be restarting talks in November with the six nations in the stalled nuclear deal that President Trump reneged on, sent crude oil prices racing lower, yesterday. Helped along by promised extra Russian nat gas for Europe starting November 8th.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wrote on Twitter late Oct. 27 that he had agreed to negotiations with six world powers on the country's nuclear program by end-November. This followed talks with his EU counterpart Enrique Mora on the same day.

A [very] little light inflation relief for the west, but any return of Iranian oil exports will still be months away.  Distant water does not put out a fire, as Chairman Mao once told communist Albania in their dispute with the USSR, which looked to be heading for yet another “friendly” Soviet invasion. 

Nevertheless, any inflation relief is welcome at any time, but especially at a time with the central banksters deliberately playing with fire by doing nothing about our new runaway global inflation.

Below, the latest news from Asia.

Asia-Pacific stocks mixed ahead of Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision; oil drops 2%

SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Thursday trade as investors await the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy announcement.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan declined 0.88% while the Topix index shed 0.65%. Retail sales in Japan fell 0.6% in September from a year earlier, according to government data released Thursday.

The Bank of Japan is also set to announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to hold steady on policy, according to Reuters.

Mainland Chinese stocks were also lower, with the Shanghai composite slipping about 0.6% and the Shenzhen component dipped 0.212%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.24%.

Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi traded 0.24% higher. Shares in Australia declined as the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.26%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded little changed.

Brent crude futures drop 2%

Oil prices were lower in the morning of Asia trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures slipping 2.12% to $82.79 per barrel. U.S. crude futures declined 1.9% to $81.09 per barrel.

Shares of oil firms in Asia-Pacific also declined, with Australia’s Beach Energy dropping 1.57%. In Japan, Inpex fell 2.84% while Hong Kong-listed shares of PetroChina plunged 3.87%.

Overnight stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 266.19 points to 35,490.69 while the S&P 500 slipped about 0.51% to 4,551.68. The Nasdaq Composite was flat at 15,235.84.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/asia-markets-bank-of-japan-monetary-policy-decision-currencies-oil.html

Crude oil futures under pressure after Iran agrees to restart talks

28 Oct 2021 | 02:40 UTC

Crude oil futures extended the heavy losses seen overnight in mid-morning trade in Asia Oct. 28, pressured by news that Iran and Western powers were set for broader talks on the Asian country's nuclear program before end-November, setting the stage for the return of Iranian oil.

At 10:09 am Singapore time (0209 GMT), the ICE December Brent futures contract was down $2.08/b (2.46%) from the previous close at $82.50/b, while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract fell $1.80/b (2.18%) to $80.86/b.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wrote on Twitter late Oct. 27 that he had agreed to negotiations with six world powers on the country's nuclear program by end-November. This followed talks with his EU counterpart Enrique Mora on the same day.

Bagheri Kani added that an exact date would be announced next week.

The negotiations could set the stage for a lifting of sanctions, allowing up to 1.3 million b/d of Iranian oil to return to global export markets, according to some analyst estimates.

Oil prices settled lower by more than 2% overnight after the news.

"The downward pressure has continued in early morning trading today. The key catalyst for the move appears to be news that broader talks around the Iranian nuclear deal are set to resume before the end of November," ING analysts Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said in a note.

Nonetheless, analysts cautioned that negotiations will likely be a lengthy process and won't result in a quick return of Iranian oil to the market.

More

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/102821-crude-oil-futures-under-pressure-after-iran-agrees-to-restart-talks

In USA news, all that central bankster Magic Money Tree fiat money is doing wonders for US imports. For US exports, well not so much. Dollars anyone?

U.S. Merchandise-Trade Gap Widens to Record as Exports Drop

Matthew Boesler & Ana Monteiro  06:17 PM IST, 27 Oct 2021

Bloomberg) -- The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit widened to a fresh record in September as exports retreated for the first time in seven months. The gap increased to $96.3 billion last month from a revised $88.2 billion in August, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for an $88.3 billion shortfall. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

The value of imports rose 0.5% to $238.4 billion, spurred by a 3.6% increase in the value of capital-goods shipments. Automotive-vehicle shipments were the major exception, decreasing 7.7% to $25.9 billion amid a global shortage of semiconductors. It was the biggest drop since February.

Exports fell 4.7% from a record high in August to $142.2 billion, driven by a 9.9% decline in the value of outward shipments of industrial supplies and a 3.6% drop in capital goods. The record goods-trade deficit is consistent with solid consumer demand and business investment. With inventories still very lean, strained supply chains and congested ports are making it difficult for U.S. importers to satisfy the robust appetite for finished goods and supplies.

more

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/u-s-merchandise-trade-gap-widens-to-record-as-exports-decline

In China economy news, does stagflation lie directly ahead?  Probably says Charlene Chu, senior analyst for China macrofinancial at Autonomous Research.

What happens next in the global economy if it does with US stock casino prices rigged to Ponzi “perfection” by the central bank?

Nothing good, so the Fed’s stocks Ponzi scheme might need a whole lot more Magic Money Tree assistance and pretty sharp too.

Stagflation in China is a ‘very real’ risk in the next couple of quarters, says analyst

The risk of stagflation is “very real” in China over the next couple of quarters as factory gate prices rise at a quicker pace and an ongoing power crunch hurts economic growth, an analyst said Wednesday.

Stagflation refers to a situation in which the economy simultaneously experiences stagnant activity and accelerating inflation. The phenomenon was first recognized in the 1970s when an oil shock prompted an extended period of higher prices but sharply falling GDP growth.

In China, the producer price index jumped 10.7% in September compared with a year earlier — the fastest pace since October 1996 when data compilation started. Meanwhile, power cuts across the country prompted several big banks to slash GDP forecasts for China.

Such a situation has made it difficult for Chinese authorities to stimulate the economy in a big way, said Charlene Chu, senior analyst for China macrofinancial at Autonomous Research.

Chu told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” that stimulus could intensify demand for energy and aggravate ongoing power shortages. At the same time, factories having to go offline for several days a week due to the power crunch would continue to hit economic growth, she suggested.

“So because of that, I think we are in a situation where there are a lot of factors weighing on growth right now that are not going away anytime soon and we are probably not getting aggressive Chinese stimulus over the next few months,” said Chu.

“That is going to be a different dynamic for the world to adjust to,” the analyst added, explaining that the world is used to China stimulating its way out of various economic predicaments.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/china-economy-analyst-on-stagflation-risk-property-market-slowdown.html

China developers propose debt restructuring, maturity extension to regulators-sources

BEIJING/HONG KONG, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Some Chinese property developers have proposed extending their offshore bond maturities or undertaking a debt restructuring in a meeting with regulators, sources said, as a wave of defaults shakes investor confidence in the sector.

The meeting underlines the behind-the-scenes efforts by China's debt-laden developers and regulators to contain the fallout centred around embattled China Evergrande Group (3333.HK). read more

The developers made the proposals at a meeting jointly held by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Tuesday, said two sources with direct knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named because of its sensitivity. SAFE and NDRC did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

It was not immediately clear which developers made the proposals, and what decision the regulators would settle on.

The regulators, however, told developers facing large offshore debt maturities to evaluate their repayment risks and report difficulties, the sources said.

The regulators also asked the unnamed companies in the meeting to proactively prepare for repayment of both principal and interest on their foreign bonds and to "jointly maintain their own reputations and the overall order of the market," NDRC said in a statement late on Tuesday.

More

https://www.reuters.com/business/shares-china-evergrande-fall-early-trade-2021-10-27/

Finally, just how soon does the team Biden want a war with China over Taiwan? Why? Who wins in such a war?  How many casualties are worth a “win?”

Below, team Biden deliberately sets out across a Beijing red line.

U.S. backs Taiwan re-entering United Nations 50 years after expulsion

Oct. 26, 2021 / 3:44 PM

Oct. 26 (UPI) -- The United States on Tuesday backed Taiwan re-entering the United Nations on the heels of the anniversary of its formal expulsion 50 years ago.

The People's Republic of China celebrated Monday the 50th anniversary of the vote on the United Nations Resolution 2758, adopted on Oct. 25, 1971, which declared that the People's Republic of China as "the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations."

The vote removed China's seat in the world body from the Republic of China, the nationalist government that fled to the island of Taiwan, which now has a population of 24 million, after losing the Chinese war in 1949 and awarded it the mainland's communist government.

"Taiwan has become a democratic success story," said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement Tuesday. "Its model supports transparency, respect for human rights, and rule of law -- values that align with those of the United Nations."

"Taiwan's meaningful participation in the U.N. system is not a political issue, but a pragmatic one," he added.

While resolution 2758 initially concerned U.N. representation, it has been interpreted to support China's claims to Taiwan and isolate the democracy internationally, Seton Hall University Law School professor Margaret Lewis told Al Jazeera.

"The PRC government has, as a practical matter, been effective in blocking Taiwan's participation in U.N.-affiliated entities, but this is not dictated by Resolution 2758: the resolution is about representation, not participation," Lewis said. "Meaningful engagement by Taiwan in U.N. affiliated entities is consistent with the letter and spirit of Resolution 2758."

Despite the removal of its seat from the world body, Blinken said that Taiwan has "participated robustly in certain U.N. specialized agencies for the vast majority of the past 50 years," until recently.

In particular, Taiwan has recently not been allowed to participate in the International Civil Aviation Organization, and was absent from the World Health Assembly, Blinken noted.

"Members of civil society from around the world engage every day in activities at the United Nations, but Taiwan's scientists, technical experts, business persons, artists, educators, students, human rights advocates, and others are blocked from entry and participating in these activities simply because of the passports they hold," Blinken said.

More

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/10/26/United-States-backs-Taiwan-re-entering-United-Nations-system-50-years-expelled/3651635267320/

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

Ernest Hemingway. 

Global Inflation Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Analysis: The 1970s all over again? Stagflation debate splits Wall St

By David Randall

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Phil Orlando has not heard this many people mentioning stagflation since he was a financial journalist in the late 1970s, when oil prices were soaring and inflation stood at more than double its current level.

Now the chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes, Orlando says stagflation is poised to make a comeback and is piling into shares of companies that can thrive during periods of high inflation and slower economic growth.

"The surge in inflation is not proving to be transitory like the Fed and Biden administration have been telling us,” he said. “It's sticky and sustained when we're past peak growth. That's stagflation."

Consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 5.4% last month, on track for their highest annual gain since 1990, a surge that analysts have pinned on everything from soaring commodity prices to some $5.3 trillion in U.S. fiscal stimulus passed since the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile, third quarter U.S. economic growth is expected to fall to 2.7%, from the prior quarter's 6.7% rate. .USGDPA=ECI read more

---- Google searches for “stagflation” this month are on track to hit their highest level since 2008, while Goldman Sachs (GS.N) wrote the term is now “the most common word in client conversations.” The number of fund managers expecting stagflation rose by 14 percentage points in October to the highest level since 2012, a survey from BoFA Global Research (BAC.N) showed.

"Clearly the deceleration in our economy is shocking and that points to stagflation,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer for Navellier & Associates. "We are going to tighten up all our portfolios because we see us going into a tunnel where [the equity market] gets more nervous and narrow."

Past episodes of stagflation have weighed on stocks. The S&P 500 fell a median of 2.1% during quarters marked by stagflation over the last 60 years, while rising a median 2.5% during all other quarters, according to Goldman Sachs.

Bonds also struggled during the last major stagflationary period, which began in the late 1960s.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell in nine of the 11 years leading up to 1982, according to data compiled by Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of bonds’ future cash flows.

More

https://www.reuters.com/business/1970s-all-over-again-stagflation-debate-splits-wall-st-2021-10-27/

In global supply chain with no quick fix, companies are paying to ship air

Published Wed, Oct 27 2021 8:59 AM EDT

The global supply chain crisis is not going to end any time soon, according to top executives at key companies in the trucking and cold storage sectors, but thinking about the shipping situation as a one-time event caused by the pandemic misses a larger problem. A real fix requires understanding that the global supply chain has long been inefficient and requires a better model — one which incorporates climate change as a critical risk and business mission — and that will take years to build.

How inefficient is logistics? Oren Zaslansky, founder and CEO of Flock Freight, which creates algorithms to maximize trucking loads, recently told the CNBC Disruptor 50 Summit that as ports across the U.S. deal with long wait times for vessels, and there are not enough trucks for the loads that are coming off the cargo ships, the loads that do finally hit the road as “full” often do so with plenty of empty space inside the freight truck’s trailer.

Right now, there may be 10 truck loads ready to go but only one driver is available, and one-third of those trucks loads aren’t close to full. That means the customer is “paying to ship air,” Zaslansky said, and that is nothing new in the sector.

Flock Freight’s business model is bridging the gap between the 60%-70% that has commonly been defined as “full” in the freight trucking business, and by using proprietary algorithms getting trucks to 100% full through the concept of shared truckloads (think Airbnb for trucking). That can help to solve the truck driver shortage, but Flock Freight sees the supply chain in much bigger terms. All that air being shipped also is generating unnecessary greenhouse gases. That amounts to a lot of empty space needlessly adding to the planet’s climate change challenge from a trillion-dollar-plus freight sector. Flock Freight estimates its shared truckload solution cuts “less than truckload” freight carbon emissions by up to 40%.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/in-supply-chain-with-no-easy-fix-companies-are-paying-to-ship-air.html

Senate Democrats unveil 15% corporate minimum tax proposal

Oct. 26, 2021 / 7:59 PM

Oct. 26 (UPI) -- A group of senators on Tuesday released new details of a plan to impose a 15% minimum corporate tax that is expected to affect about 200 companies.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Angus King, I-Maine, and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., announced the plan which could form a source of revenue to fund President Joe Biden's Build Back Better social spending package.

The corporate minimum tax will apply to companies that publicly report more than $1 billion in profits annually for a three-year time period, creating a 15% minimum tax on the profits those companies report to their shareholders.

It would also preserve the value of business credits -- including research and development, clean energy, and housing tax credits -- and include flexibilities for companies to carry forward losses, utilize foreign tax credits and claim a minimum tax credit against regular tax in future years.

RELATED Washington state lawsuit accuses chicken producers of illegally inflating prices

The senators also projected it will raise "hundreds of billions" in revenue over 10 years.

"Giant corporations have been exploiting tax loopholes for too long, and it's about time they pay their fair share to help run this country, just like everyone else," Warren said. "The Corporate Profits Minimum Tax would end corporate double dealing and ensure companies pay something in taxes when they report billions in profits to their shareholders."

The senators specifically cited Amazon, stating the online retailing giant reported $45 billion in profits throughout the past three years yet paid an effective tax rate of 4.3%, well below the 21% corporate tax rate, while also not paying any federal income tax in 2018.

More

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/10/26/Senate-Democrats-15-percent-corporate-minimum-tax-proposal/7681635288287/

I’ll bet that gets passed on to the consumer pretty fast.

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Cheap antidepressant shows promise treating early COVID-19

A cheap antidepressant reduced the need for hospitalization among high-risk adults with COVID-19 in a study hunting for existing drugs that could be repurposed to treat coronavirus.

Researchers tested the pill used for depression and obsessive-compulsive disorder because it was known to reduce inflammation and looked promising in smaller studies.

They’ve shared the results with the U.S. National Institutes of Health, which publishes treatment guidelines, and they hope for a World Health Organization recommendation.

“If WHO recommends this, you will see it widely taken up,” said study co-author Dr. Edward Mills of McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, adding that many poor nations have the drug readily available. “We hope it will lead to a lot of lives saved.”

The pill, called fluvoxamine, would cost $4 for a course of COVID-19 treatment. By comparison, antibody IV treatments cost about $2,000 and Merck’s experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19 is about $700 per course. Some experts predict various treatments eventually will be used in combination to fight the coronavirus.

Researchers tested the antidepressant in nearly 1,500 Brazilians recently infected with coronavirus who were at risk of severe illness because of other health problems, such as diabetes. About half took the antidepressant at home for 10 days, the rest got dummy pills. They were tracked for four weeks to see who landed in the hospital or spent extended time in an emergency room when hospitals were full.

In the group that took the drug, 11% needed hospitalization or an extended ER stay, compared to 16% of those on dummy pills.

The results, published Wednesday in the journal Lancet Global Health, were so strong that independent experts monitoring the study recommended stopping it early because the results were clear.

More

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-antidepressants-db60608bedde0149247ce9a64a394802

COVID-19 vaccines safe for people with history of severe allergies, study finds

Oct. 26, 2021 / 11:02 AM

Oct. 26 (UPI) -- People with a history of severe allergic reactions to drugs and vaccines can receive both doses of the two-shot COVID-19 inoculations safely, a study published Tuesday by JAMA Network Open found.

Nearly 12% of healthcare workers who reported having a history of allergies to medications, vaccines or allergens such as dust and pollen had an allergic reaction to either the first or second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, the data showed.

The most common allergic symptoms were hives and angioedema, or swelling, around the injection site, and none of them required hospital treatment, they said.

Despite these symptoms, 98% of the study participants were fully vaccinated against the virus, meaning they received both doses of the two-shot vaccines from Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech.

"The results of this study can help guide expectations for patients with high-risk allergy histories," study co-author Dr. Lily Li said in a press release.

"Symptoms such as hives and swelling may occur, particularly with the first vaccine dose, but most reported allergic symptoms did not impede completion of the two-dose mRNA vaccine series," said Li, a member of the allergy faculty at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston.

---- Severe allergic reactions such as anaphylaxis, or an extreme immune system response to the vaccines, are also extremely rare, research suggests.

For this study, Li and her colleagues assessed allergy risk among 52,998 healthcare workers in the Brigham and Women's health system, all of whom received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

More than 60% of the staff members were given the Moderna vaccine, while the rest received the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, the researchers said.

---- While 12% of those with a history of allergic reactions had one after the vaccine, fewer than 5% of those who did not have a history of allergies had one, the researchers said.

Those with a history of allergic reactions had a 2.5-fold higher risk for allergic reactions to the COVID-19 vaccines, the data showed.

More

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2021/10/26/COVID-19-vaccine-allergic-reactions-study/1431635254854/

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Solar Power Has Had A Blowout Year Despite Pandemic Woes

By Haley Zaremba - Oct 26, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT

“Solar PV will dominate renewable energy capacity additions” read the most recent annual report on renewable energies from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Even with the contraction of energy markets thanks to the novel coronavirus pandemic, solar energy has remained relatively stable and strong. Despite all of last year’s hurdles, solar PV is still on track with the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario, a proposed pathway toward meeting the goals set by the Paris climate accord and keeping global warming within the bounds of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages. 

This is extremely hopeful news, as the United Nations recently sounded a “code red for humanity” upon the release of the latest landmark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 6th Assessment Report showed, in no uncertain terms, that humans have irreversibly changed the climate, and the world is on track to make a bad situation even worse. 

Solar PV provides one of the most promising routes toward this increasingly urgent goal, and many of the world’s most influential governments are leading the charge toward massively expanding the world’s solar capacity in the coming years. Last week marked the beginning of the fourth annual meeting of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) in New Delhi, India. This year’s iteration is tasked with planning the launch of a sweeping $1 trillion plan to build new solar plants over the course of the next decade as a part of the organization’s “One Sun, One World, One Grid” program. 

Conference attendees include heavy hitters such as John Kerry, the US climate change envoy, Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal, Riccardo Puliti, the vice president of infrastructure for the World Bank, Kwasi Kwarteng, business secretary for the UK and Barbara Pompili, the ecological transition minister for France.

The conference aims to hammer out the operational and technical aspects of “One Sun, One World, One Grid” in the form of a detailed five-year plan. “This will include discussions of financial risk management and ways of attracting the private sector capital that will be needed to fill the ‘viability gap’ between member countries’ ambitions and what they can fund themselves,” reports the Global Construction Review.

More

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/Solar-Power-Has-Had-A-Blowout-Year-Despite-Pandemic-Woes.html

"Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

John Kerry, the US climate change envoy, Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal, Riccardo Puliti, the vice president of infrastructure for the World Bank, Kwasi Kwarteng, business secretary for the UK and Barbara Pompili, the ecological transition minister for France.

With apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.

 

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