Baltic Dry Index. 3376 +58 Brent Crude 71.42
Spot Gold 1800
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 06/08/21 World 201,712,187
Deaths 4,280,523
The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.
Ludwig von Mises.
In economic terms, the big news today should be the US employment figure for July.
Rivaling that, but more likely to happen on Saturday, will be the US Senate finalising their trillion plus dollar “infrastructure” reconstruction bill. A trillion here a trillion there and pretty soon you’re talking real inflation, to misquote Senator Dirkson.
Of course, non-economic news could trump the anticipated economic news. Will Israel retaliate against Iran for last week’s attack on a tanker off Oman?
Will Covid-19 news from China or Japan overwhelm all else?
Will the Great North American Drought from norther Mexico to southern Canada trigger a major food price inflation. Probably, but probably not today.
Up first, Asian stock casinos await the US employment figures. Everyone else awaits the weekend.
Asia-Pacific markets slip as investors await U.S. jobs report; South Korea’s Kakao Bank jumps in debut
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific largely slipped in Friday morning trade as investors await the release of a closely watched U.S. jobs report.
Shares of South Korea’s Kakao Bank surged in their Friday debut, rising as high as 74.36% from the issue price. Some of those gains were later pared, but the stock was still last trading more than 60% higher. South Korea’s broader Kospi slipped 0.26%.
Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai composite down 0.36% while the Shenzhen component dipped 0.514%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.57%.
The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was little changed.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.11% while the Topix index sat fractionally lower.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.37% lower.
Investors will look ahead to the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision at 12:30 p.m. HK/SIN today.
Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 271.58 points to 35,064.25 while the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 4,429.10. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.78% to 14,895.12.
Those gains came stateside after weekly jobless claims data released Thursday matched expectations. The closely watched July U.S. jobs report is set to be released Friday morning stateside, with a wide range of estimates from economists about what the report will show.
More
In other aspirational news, President Biden sets an unreachable US EV target. See the last articles in the Global Inflation section for why President Biden’s aspiration EV target is just aspirational. It is the silly season for news after all.
Biden sets goal for half of all new vehicles to be electric by 2030
Aug. 5, 2021 / 7:40 AM / Updated Aug. 5, 2021 at 6:01 PM
Aug. 5 (UPI) -- President Joe Biden on Thursday signed an executive order setting a goal for half of all new vehicles made in the United States to be electric in some form by the end of the 2020s.
He signed the executive order after delivering a speech on investing in the electric car sector on the South Lawn of the White House where staffers had parked several electric vehicles. The order sets a 50% target for electrifying vehicles and emphasizes the importance of "made in America."
Biden said the new policy was key to strengthening the U.S. economy because electrification is the future of car manufacturing.
"It's electric, and there's no turning back," he said. "The question is whether we'll lead or fall behind in the race for the future."
The signing also follows through on his campaign promise "to reverse the previous administration's short-sighted rollback of vehicle emissions and fuel-efficiency standards," Biden said.
"It's about leveraging once-in a generation investments and a whole-of-government effort to lift up American auto workers and strengthen the American leadership in the world in a clean car technology...not just cars, but trucks and buses," Biden added. "That's why today I'm signing an executive order setting out a target of 50% of all passengers vehicles sold by 2030 will be electric."
Along with the 50% target for electrifying vehicles, the signed order also sets standards for car companies to gradually decrease emissions over the next five years.
After the signing, Biden took an electric Jeep Wrangler for a ride around the White House.
The effort is in line with goals set out in the Paris Agreement on climate change, which the United States rejoined this year under Biden.
"The executive order also kicks off development of long-term fuel efficiency and emissions standards to save consumers money, cut pollution, boost public health, advance environmental justice and tackle the climate crisis," the White House said in a statement.
"The global market is shifting to electric vehicles and tapping their potential to save families money, lower pollution and make the air we breathe cleaner."
Biden's administration said part of the effort includes new rule changes by the Environmental Protection Agency and Transportation Department from those imposed by the government of former President Donald Trump, which it said adopted "harmful rollbacks of near-term fuel efficiency and emissions standards."
"Through these coordinated notices of proposed rulemaking, the two agencies are advancing smart fuel efficiency and emissions standards that would deliver around $140 billion in net benefits over the life of the program, save about 200 billion gallons of gasoline and reduce around 2 billion metric tons of carbon pollution," the White House said.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/08/05/joe-biden-electric-vehicles/1941628160697/
Finally, more on the just-in-time supply chain disruption leading to shortages and price inflation.
Where Did All the Shipping Containers Go?
The trading world is seemingly awash in boxes, but companies say finding available containers is harder than ever
Aug. 4, 2021 3:16 pm ET
The shipping container that has been the building block of global trade growth is turning into the latest source of frustration for importers and exporters coping with world-wide supply-chain disruptions.
The steel boxes are harder than ever to find as surging demand to restock inventories and a series of shipping disruptions has left many thousands of containers stranded at sea on ships anchored near jammed-up ports. Still more are stacking up at inland freight hubs in the U.S., Europe and Asia as companies struggle to cope with the cargo flows that at times have overwhelmed their operations.
The result is what Tim Boyle, chief executive of Columbia Sportswear Co., on a recent earnings conference call said is a “container dislocation” that has contributed to skyrocketing costs and complicated efforts to meet resurgent consumer demand.
Containers are essential equipment for global trade, providing the ability to efficiently handle large volumes of consumer goods, apparel, manufacturing parts and other materials across today’s long supply chains.
The boxes are in short supply even though much of the world seems awash in shipping containers and as production of the boxes is expected to hit record levels this year.
Container factories, concentrated almost solely in China, are expected to produce a record 5.4 million 20-foot-equivalent units, or TEUs, of the steel boxes this year, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. The production has grown rapidly since 2.8 million TEUs were produced in 2019, part of a years long decline in orders amid economic uncertainty and slowing global trade growth.
John Fossey, head of container equipment and leasing research for London-based Drewry, said that in principle there are more than enough containers to handle global trading volumes. In practice, he said, availability in several parts of the world has become incredibly tight because large volumes of containers are stuck in the wrong place.
More
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bank of England keeps policy unchanged, warns of ‘more pronounced’ period of inflation
Published Thu, Aug 5 2021 7:04 AM EDT
LONDON — The Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, but warned of a more pronounced period of above-target inflation in the near term.
Policymakers unanimously decided to keep the Bank’s main lending rate at a historic low of 0.1%, where it has been since March 2020, and voted 7-1 to maintain the quantitative easing program at £895 billion ($1.25 trillion).
The central bank also raised its inflation forecasts, as expected by economists, following two consecutive months of above-forecast readings.
“Overall, Bank staff now expect inflation to rise materially further in the near term, temporarily reaching 4% in 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1, 1½ percentage points higher than in the May projection,” the bank said in its monetary policy report.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report said the temporary rise in the consumer price index is primarily due to rising energy and other goods prices, which are set to moderate in the medium term to bring inflation back toward its 2% target.
U.K. GDP is expected to have risen by 5% in the second quarter of 2021, leaving it around 4% below pre-pandemic levels and slightly above the BOE’s projections in its May report.
Sterling edged 0.3% higher to $1.3925 on the news.
‘Some modest tightening’
The BOE now expects U.K. GDP to grow by 3% in the third quarter, weaker than forecast in the May report, given a recent surge in Covid-19 cases and hundreds of thousands of workers being asked to self-isolate.
However, the economy is expected to reach its pre-pandemic level in the final three months of the year as the impact of the pandemic wanes, before growth slows to more “normal” rates in part due to gradual tightening of fiscal policy.
More
Europe Faces an Energy Shock After Gas and Power Prices Rocket
Josefine Fokuhl August 5, 2021, 1:00 AM EDT
After lockdowns forced Basel Hamzeh to close his cafe in a trendy Berlin neighborhood for months, the 53-year-old is confronting a fresh crisis: high energy bills.
The cost of natural gas and electricity has surged across Europe, reaching records in some countries, as businesses re-open and workers return to the office. In Germany, wholesale power prices have risen more than 60% this year, leaving the owner of the Frau Honig cafe in Friedrichshain with no option but to raise prices of everything from cappuccinos to cinnamon rolls.
More
Seafood Prices Soar Amid Supply Chain Issues and Worker Shortage
As demand for fish rises, restaurants are slammed with employment losses, port congestion, lack of product, rising costs and shipment snags
By David Kindy smithsonianmag.com August 4, 2021 2:10PM
A post-Covid-19 economic inflationary surge has seafood places rewriting their menus—sans lobsters, scallops, crab and many fish dishes.
Prices have risen by as much as 50 percent in the last quarter due to a lack of fishers and truck drivers combined with climbing consumer demand, reports Christine Blank of SeafoodSource.com.
“The price we had to charge to be profitable was almost insulting,” Josue Pena, chef at The Iberian Pig in Atlanta, tells SeafoodSource.com. He was forced to remove the restaurant’s signature crab coquettes after crab prices nearly doubled.
Overall, the wholesale price of finfish and shellfish rose 18.8 percent from June 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reports Will Feuer of the New York Post. Halibut soared from $16 a pound to $28, while blue crab skyrocketed from $18 to $44—an increase of more than 140 percent.
Per Bloomberg’s Adam Jackson and Kate Krader, the jump in seafood prices is part of broader inflationary increase working its way through the economy as the United States continues to emerge from the pandemic. However, the seafood surge is also related to an employment shortage, port congestion, lack of product, rising prices and transportation issues.
“Distributors used to hustle and bustle to get your business,” Jay Herrington of Fish On Fire in Orlando tells Bloomberg. "You don’t get a delivery, or it’s a late delivery. Sometimes we have to go and pick it up.”
The root cause is a lack of workers in the fishing industry. Many left the industry at the peak of the pandemic when demand was low—and they don’t appear to be returning to work anytime soon.
“A lot of people went into construction,” Michael Priebel, manager of Keys Fisheries in Marathon, Florida, tells Bloomberg. “We see less and less people coming back every year because they are getting old and fishing is getting more expensive.”
Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, restaurant owners have endured the brunt of economic pressures. In addition to capacity restrictions and diminished demand, those businesses have been hit by major increases in supply costs and worker wages.
So far, Brennan Heretick, co-owner of High Tide Harry’s in Orlando, has resisted passing on those costs to customers, many of whom are just returning to his restaurant. The result? He experienced record revenues with a $14,000 loss in recent months.
“We hope that when we do have to have a little bit of a price increase, that everybody’s understanding that we did everything we could,” Heretick tells Bloomberg.
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible anyway, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
vaccine
noun: vaccine; plural noun: vaccines
- a substance used to stimulate the production of antibodies and provide immunity against one or several diseases, prepared from the causative agent of a disease, its products, or a synthetic substitute, treated to act as an antigen without inducing the disease.
Since none of the available non-sterilising “vaccines” provide “immunity” against recatching Covid-19, why are we calling them vaccines?
Hmm. Ivermectin for under a dollar US a day or a non-sterilising, “emergency use only,” “vaccine” for nineteen to twenty five dollars a shot, two shots minimum required, boosters may be needed. It’s a no brainer for big pharma companies pursuing gigantic profit over good medical practice.
Ban Ivermectin and put up the price of “vaccines.” Get politicians to order compulsory “vaccination” for all. What is $25 times 2, times 7 billion, plus a $25 booster every year?
Israeli scientist says COVID-19 could be treated for under $1/day
Double-blind study shows ivermectin reduces disease’s duration and infectiousness • FDA and WHO caution against its use
By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN AUGUST 2, 2021 21:01
Ivermectin, a drug used to fight parasites in third-world countries, could help reduce the length of infection for people who contract coronavirus for less than a $1 a day, according to recent research by Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer.
Prof. Eli Schwartz, founder of the Center for Travel Medicine and Tropical Disease at Sheba, conducted a randomized, controlled, double-blinded trial from May 15, 2020, through the end of January 2021 to evaluate the effectiveness of ivermectin in reducing viral shedding among nonhospitalized patients with mild to moderate COVID-19.
Ivermectin has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration since 1987. The drug’s discoverers were awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in medicine for its treatment of onchocerciasis, a disease caused by infection with a parasitic roundworm.
Over the years, it has been used for other indications, including scabies and head lice. Moreover, in the last decade, several clinical studies have started to show its antiviral activity against viruses ranging from HIV and the flu to Zika and West Nile.
The drug is also extremely economical. A study published in the peer-reviewed American Journal of Therapeutics showed that the cost of ivermectin for other treatments in Bangladesh is around $0.60 to $1.80 for a five-day course. It costs up to $10 a day in Israel, Schwartz said.
In Schwartz’s study, some 89 eligible volunteers over the age of 18 who were diagnosed with coronavirus and staying in state-run COVID-19 hotels were divided into two groups: 50% received ivermectin, and 50% received a placebo, according to their weight. They were given the pills for three days in a row, an hour before a meal.
The volunteers were tested using a standard nasopharyngeal swab PCR test with the goal of evaluating whether there was a reduction in viral load by the sixth day – the third day after termination of the treatment. They were swabbed every two days.
Nearly 72% of volunteers treated with ivermectin tested negative for the virus by day six. In contrast, only 50% of those who received the placebo tested negative.
IN ADDITION, the study looked at culture viability, meaning how infectious the patients were, and found that only 13% of ivermectin patients were infectious after six days, compared with 50% of the placebo group – almost four times as many.
More
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientist-says-covid-19-could-be-
Pfizer and Moderna raise prices for COVID-19 vaccines in EU- FT
August 2, 202112:46 AM BST
Aug 1 (Reuters) - Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) have raised the prices of their COVID-19 vaccines in their latest European Union supply contracts, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
More
Lambda COVID Variant, Behind 1,000 Cases in U.S., Shows Vaccine Resistance
By Darragh Roche On 8/3/21 at 10:59 AM EDT
The Lambda variant of COVID-19 may be more resistant to vaccines and is highly infectious, researchers at Japan's University of Tokyo have warned in a new scientific paper published on July 28. The study is yet to be peer reviewed.
Like the Delta variant, Lambda is highly transmissible but Japanese researchers believe that three mutations in the variant's spike proteins make it more resistant to antibodies induced by vaccination.
Lambda, which is also known as the C.37 variant, is responsible for 1,037 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., according to data from the GISAID Initiative, which promotes the rapid sharing of information about influenza and coronaviruses.
The variant was first identified in Peru in August, 2020, where it has now become the dominant strain of the virus, and it has been reported in 29 countries including the U.S.
Researchers at the University of Tokyo published their paper at bioRxiv, a "preprint server for biology," last Wednesday ahead of the paper's peer review.
In lab experiments, they identified three mutations in the Lambda variant's spike protein—called RSYLTPGD246-253N, 260 L452Q and F490S—that make it more resistant to neutralization by antibodies that are induced through vaccination. This makes the strain more resistant to vaccines than the original COVID-19 strain first identified in Wuhan, China.
The research team also identified two further mutations—T76I and L452Q—that make the Lambda variant highly infectious. They also warn that the World Health Organization's classification of Lambda as a Variant of Interest (VOI) rather than a Variant of Concern (VOC) might lead some people to take the threat less seriously.
https://www.newsweek.com/lambda-covid-variant-1000-cases-us-shows-vaccine-resistance-1615668
Melbourne plunges back into coronavirus lockdown a week after leaving it
Michael E. Miller August 5, 2021
SYDNEY —Australia's second-most-populous city, Melbourne, entered its sixth coronavirus lockdown on Thursday after Victoria state officials detected "multiple mystery cases" of what they suspect to be the highly contagious delta variant.
The week-long lockdown comes just a day after the state reported its first 24 hours without a new infection in nearly a month, briefly raising hopes that its most recent battle with the delta variant was behind it.
Officials announced eight new infections Thursday, some of which had not been linked to previous cases. Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews told reporters that the mystery cases were still under investigation but that the snap lockdown was the only way to prevent the outbreak from spiraling out of control.
“Because this thing moves so fast, it’s either lock it down . . . or it runs wild and it gets away from you and there is no pulling it back,” he said of the delta variant.
Australia’s closed international border, rigorous contact tracing and snap lockdowns once made it a covid success story, with about 35,000 cases in total and 932 deaths. But the country has struggled to suppress outbreaks of the delta variant. And a sluggish vaccination program has left its population of roughly 25 million vulnerable.
Andrews said he wanted to avoid a larger outbreak like the one in Sydney, where health officials reported a record 262 new cases and five deaths on Thursday.
More
3 charts show how far Covid delta variant has spread around the world
More than one year into the Covid-19 pandemic, the world is grappling with a highly transmissible delta variant that has caused a renewed surge in infections in countries from the U.K. and the U.S., to those in Africa and Asia.
The delta variant, which was first detected in India last October, has been found in more than 130 countries globally, according to the World Health Organization.
Delta is the most transmissible variant of the coronavirus that first emerged in China in late 2019, said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist and technical lead for Covid-19 at the WHO.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Not the usual technology update today. Today an EV safety alert that we’ve covered too often before.
While they were asleep, their Teslas burned in the garage. It’s a risk many automakers are taking seriously.
Faiz Siddiqui August 4, 2021
SAN FRANCISCO — Yogi and Carolyn Vindum were still asleep late last year when their Tesla Model S beamed an alert that charging was interrupted.
Twelve minutes after that, they awoke to a blaring car alarm and a fire consuming their house in San Ramon, Calif. The blaze had started in one of the two electric vehicles in their garage and spread to the other.
“If we had lived upstairs in this house, we’d be dead,” said Yogi Vindum, a retired mechanical engineer.
The fire, which has not previously been reported, is one in a string of recent examples showing what can happen when electric cars are left parked in garages to charge overnight. The issue is causing mounting concern as a number of electric-vehicle makers have warned owners not to leave the cars charging unattended in certain circumstances, or sitting fully charged in garages.
Automakers including General Motors, Audi and Hyundai have recalled electric vehicles over fire risks in recent years and have warned of the associated dangers.
Chevrolet last year advised owners not to charge their vehicles overnight or keep their fully charged vehicles in garages. It recalled more than 60,000 of its Bolt electric vehicles over concerns about the cars spontaneously combusting while parked with full batteries or charging, after reports of five fires without prior impact damage. The company issued another recall last month covering the same vehicles after two reports of battery fires in repaired vehicles.
“We don’t think every vehicle has this rare manufacturing defect,” General Motors spokesman Dan Flores said. “But we can’t take a chance, so we’re recalling all the vehicles.”
Tesla, which does not typically answer media inquiries, did not respond to a request for comment. Hyundai spokesman Michael Stewart said the company announced a recall for its Kona EV in March in order to replace the battery. Stewart said owners were advised to lower the maximum state of charge in their vehicles to 80 percent, and park outside until the state of charge is lowered.
Audi did not immediately have comment.
Automakers face numerous challenges as they race to get electric vehicles to consumers ahead of regulatory and company deadlines for shifting production away from gas-powered vehicles. They face skepticism about the availability of charging stations, concerns about vehicle range and apprehensions over cost. Fires have drawn attention because of the high-profile recalls and blazes that followed product rollouts, analysts say, further complicating the automakers’ calculations.
“Gasoline driven cars don’t catch fire in the garage when they’re sitting there. And that’s the difference,” he said. “I don’t worry about [my] Audi catching fire downstairs when it’s not running.”
More
Another weekend and will there be another Gulf of Tonkin/Oman incident. I don’t know either but stay tuned, someone somewhere seems to want to start a new middle east war. Have a great weekend everyone.
When a business or an individual spends more than it makes, it goes bankrupt. When government does it, it sends you the bill. And when government does it for 40 years, the bill comes in two ways: higher taxes and inflation. Make no mistake about it, inflation is a tax and not by accident.
Ronald Reagan.
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