Tuesday, 3 August 2021

More Supply Problems. A Hot Summer.

 

Baltic Dry Index. 3282 -10   Brent Crude 72.85

Spot Gold 1812

 Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 03/08/21 World 199,614,894

Deaths 4,249,394

August 3, 1934 Adolf Hitler merges the offices of German Chancellor and President, declaring himself "Führer" (leader.)

As goes China so goes the world hasn’t quite replaced as goes America so goes the world, yet. But it’s getting uncomfortably close.

There’s no real reason why US and European stock casinos should follow China’s casinos lower, but large losses on Chinese proxy stocks traded in the US casinos will probably set the mood for today.

Add in a probable Delta Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough in Asia and possibly the USA and the summer silly season isn’t the time to start chasing overpriced stocks, even with Fed Chairman Powell saying he’s still covering all bullish bets. 

I’ll bet he’s not covering Chinese proxy share bets on Wall Street and why should he?

To this old dinosaur market follower, it looks like the path of lowest resistance is downwards and the safety of the side lines beckons until the China massacre looks like ending.

Chinese online gaming stocks tumble after state media takes aim at industry; Asia-Pacific stocks slip

SINGAPORE — Stocks in Asia-Pacific fell in Tuesday trade, with Hong Kong-listed shares of firms in the Chinese online gaming market plummeting after the activity was described as a type of “opium” by Chinese state media.

In Tuesday morning trade, shares of Tencent in Hong Kong plunged more than 10% while Netease and Bilibili plummeted 12.71% and 13.24%, respectively. The Hang Seng Tech index declined 3.19%.

The losses came after the Economic Information Daily, affiliated with Chinese state media outlet Xinhua, published an article that expressed concern over the amount of time spent by youths on online gaming.

Hong Kong’s broader Hang Seng index dipped 1.47%.

Mainland Chinese stocks were lower as the Shanghai composite declined 0.22% while the Shenzhen component fell 0.334%.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan slipped 0.8% while the Topix index shed 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.12%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.25%. Shares of Afterpay saw more gains in Tuesday trade, jumping around 12%. The firm’s stock surged nearly 19% on Monday after U.S. fintech firm Square announced it had agreed to buy the buy now, pay later giant. 

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.73% lower.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 p.m. HK/SIN on Tuesday.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 97.31 points to 34,838.16 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.18% to 4,387.16. The Nasdaq Composite edged fractionally higher to 14,681.07.

Concerns over Covid are weighing on investor sentiment. The CDC director said Monday that the seven-day average of daily coronavirus cases in the U.S. surpassed the peak seen last summer, when the country didn’t have an authorized Covid-19 vaccine.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/asia-markets-reserve-bank-of-australia-rate-decision-covid-currencies-oil.html

Crackdown shows China’s ready to do ‘whatever it takes’ when it sees social problems, major Asia bank says

Published Sun, Aug 1 2021 9:38 PM EDT Updated 4 Hours Ago

China’s crackdown on private education signals that Beijing is willing to take strong action when it perceives socioeconomic problems — regardless of what investors may want, according to an equity strategist at a major Asian bank.

“The government is ready to do whatever it takes to rectify perceived social, economic issues,” DBS’ Dennis Lam said during a webinar Thursday, pointing to the speed, efficiency and strength of China’s new policy.

“Stock market volatility is not a consideration at all,” according to Lam.

For sectors that face high risk of regulation, including education, e-commerce, internet and health care, it’s “prudent for the investor to basically expect the worst,” he said.

But he acknowledged that Chinese securities regulators tried to ease market fears in a meeting with major investment banks Wednesday. The regulator did not make a public statement but said Beijing will continue to allow Chinese firms to list in the U.S., a source familiar with the matter told CNBC.

---- There has been a “fundamental shift” in the mentality of Chinese authorities, according to DBS Chief China Economist Chris Leung.

He said the crackdown on private education shows that the country’s policy design now takes social factors into account, beyond financial and economic considerations. He explained the government is trying to tackle high education costs, which discourage Chinese couples from having more children.

Leung added that Beijing is “willing to bite the bullet to serve long-term … socioeconomic goals,” even if it’s at the expense of stock market prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/china-is-willing-to-do-what-it-takes-to-address-social-problems-dbs.html

Delta variant surge will crush reopening stocks, longtime market bear David Rosenberg suggests

Published Sun, Aug 1 2021 5:14 PM EDT

Investors may want to start August by lightening up on the reopening trades.

Longtime market bear David Rosenberg warns surging Covid-19 delta variant cases paired with the culmination of fiscal stimulus will crush stocks tied to the economic recovery.

“We have to be prepared here for the economy to sputter in the next several months,” the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “You don’t have to basically abandon the stock market, but I definitely would not be in the value reflation cyclical trade.”

His warning follows disappointing results on the gross domestic product front. Last week, the Commerce Department reported second quarter GDP grew 6.5%, which was short of the 8.4% Dow Jones estimate.

Rosenberg, who is known for serving as Merrill Lynch’s top economist from 2002 to 2009, sees the GDP miss as a glaring red flag.

“Now we’ve got the delta variant which is a big unknown,” he noted.

Yet, the market has been holding up. The S&P 500 and Dow are less than 1% from their all-time highs while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is 1% away.

“If you want to go out and be long stocks, you’ve done great. Go ahead and do it. Just don’t come back and tell me that it had anything to do with the economic outlook,” he added.

Rosenberg believes there’s a disconnect between the market performance and the economy that’s being exacerbated by the retail investing crowd.

“The stock market has actually, frankly, become a bit of a casino in some sense,” he said. “We always rely on the beloved S&P 500. But not every single index out there is following the mega caps, which by the way are now starting to roll over. The small cap stocks have been waving the yellow flag on the economic outlook for some time now.”

According to Rosenberg, the market is operating in a universe all its own.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/01/delta-variant-surge-will-crush-reopening-stocks-david-rosenberg.html

Below, a warning from the Bank for International Settlements. No one, it seems, likes Big Tech. Least of all the banksters with a large bout of FOMO, fear of missing out.

Financial regulators urgently need to get a grip on 'Big Tech' - BIS

August 2, 2021 11:16 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Central banks and financial regulators urgently need to get to grips with the growing influence of ‘Big Tech’, according to top officials from central bank umbrella group the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Global watchdogs are increasing wary that the huge amounts of data controlled by groups such as Facebook, Google, Amazon and Alibaba could allow them to reshape finance so rapidly that it destabilises entire banking systems.

In a paper led by its head Agustin Carstens, the BIS pointed to examples such as China where the two big tech payment firms now account for 94% of the mobile payments market.

In many other jurisdictions, tech firms are rapidly establishing footprints too, with some also lending to individuals and small businesses as well as offering insurance and wealth management services.

“The entry of big techs into financial services gives rise to new challenges surrounding the concentration of market power and data governance,” the BIS paper published on Monday said.

There was scope for “specific entity-based rules” notably in the European Union, China and the United States, it added.

“Any impact on the integrity of the monetary system arising from the emergence of dominant platforms ought to be a key concern for the central bank.”

Stablecoins - cryptocurrencies pegged to existing currencies - and other Big Tech initiatives could be “a game changer” for the monetary system, the paper added, if their entry leads to closed-loop systems reinforced by network effects from data drawn from social media or e-commerce platforms.

It could lead to a fragmentation of payment infrastructures to the detriment of the public good. “Given the potential for rapid change, the absence of currently dominant platforms should not be a source of comfort for central banks,” the paper said.

More.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bis-bigtech-regulation/financial-regulators-urgently-need-to-get-a-grip-on-big-tech-bis-idUSKBN2F30YF

In other news, buy now while stocks last.

Another shipping crisis strikes, threatening delays to Black Friday shopping

The 2021 holiday shopping season could be marred by out-of-stock goods and shipping delays as the recent floods in Europe and China exacerbate already strained global supply chains.

Western Europe and China’s Henan province — a key transport hub and home to several major businesses — are grappling with the aftermath of devastating floods.

The disasters have damaged railways used for the delivery of goods and raw materials in both regions. Water rushed into industrial areas extensively damaging facilities, machinery and warehouses, companies in the supply chain industry told CNBC. 

“Black Friday and the holiday season, for which products (and raw materials) are being staged, will face the brunt of the impact,” Pawan Joshi, executive vice president of supply chain software firm E2open told CNBC in an email. 

“Consumer electronics, dorm room furniture, clothing and appliances will all continue to be in short supply as back-to-school shopping starts up, and will trickle into the peak holiday shopping season,” he said. 

Delays from the distribution of raw materials needed to produce goods will have a cascading effect and disrupt supply chains “for weeks and months,” Joshi said.

The CEO of a shipping firm told CNBC last week the floods in China and Europe are yet “another body blow” for global supply chains

Supply chains have already been majorly disrupted this year by crises such as the shortage of shipping containers, the Suez Canal incident and Covid cases causing delays at the shipping hubs in Southern China.

Even if there are deals for the peak online shopping season, Joshi said it’s likely there will be fewer and the discounts will probably be smaller. Prices may also go up for some goods, he said.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/shipping-crisis-strikes-black-friday-shopping-amid-europe-china-floods.html

Finally, in the USA, a hot summer is about to get a lot hotter for some. Weren’t tax cheats offered an amnesty if they came in voluntarily a couple of years back.  I suspect little mercy for any caught out by the current trawl.

Wealthy Americans Targeted by U.S. in Panama Tax-Fraud Probe

Monday, Aug 02, 2021

U.S. authorities obtained a court order allowing them to demand financial information from banks and couriers about wealthy Americans suspected of using a Panamanian law firm to evade taxes.

The Internal Revenue Service can now get information about electronic fund transfers and courier deliveries between the firm, Panama Offshore Legal Services, and its U.S. clients, the Justice Department said in a statement Thursday. The IRS seeks to identify clients who used the law firm to “create or control foreign assets and entities” to evade taxes, the department said.

“We continue our joint efforts with the IRS to investigate tax evaders who use foreign financial accounts and sham foreign entities to hide their assets,” Manhattan U.S. Attorney Audrey Strauss said in the statement.

U.S. District Judge Gregory Woods modified an order Wednesday that authorized the IRS to issue summonses to entities including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Clearing House Payments Co., HSBC Bank USA N.A., Citibank N.A., Wells Fargo N.A., Bank of America N.A., FedEx Corp., United Parcel Service Inc. and DHL Express.

The order requires that they produce information about possible violations of tax laws by people whose identities are unknown, according to the statement. Woods authorized so-called John Doe summonses, which let authorities get names of U.S. taxpayers, records and other information relating to those taxpayers.

The summonses are unrelated to the leak five years ago of more than 11 million documents, known as the Panama Papers, involving offshore entities created by a Panamanian law firm, Mossack Fonseca. The disclosures have led to criminal convictions of at least two Americans.

Panama Offshore Legal Services, or POLS, used HSBC, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citibank for U.S. correspondent accounts, according to a May 4 declaration by IRS Revenue Agent Katy Fuentes. The banks cleared dollar-denominated transactions.

More

https://bermudapost.com/wealthy-americans-targeted-by-u-s-in-panama-tax-fraud-probe

 

Global Inflation Watch.           

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Is US inflation, especially employment inflation, about to get some relief starting next month? Well maybe, but I expect District of Crooks Democrats to move Heaven and Earth to try to avoid a Biden Bust.

Not to worry though, junior investment banker pay is soaring. I wonder if at 71 I’m too old to become a junior investment banker?

But first this. More free money to chase a limited supply of good and services.

IMF $650 billion reserves distribution clears last hurdle, takes effect on Aug 23

August 3, 2021

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