Baltic Dry Index. 3147 +28 Brent Crude 75.31
Spot Gold 1775
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 24/06/21 World 180,370,784
Deaths 3,907,592
24th June, 1812. Napoleon starts his invasion of Russia with almost half a million troops of his Grande Armee. What could possibly go wrong?
French invasion of Russia
The French invasion of Russia, known in Russia as the Patriotic War of 1812 (Russian: Отечественная война 1812 года, romanized: Otechestvennaya voyna 1812 goda) and in France as the Russian campaign (French: Campagne de Russie), was begun by Napoleon to force Russia back into the Continental blockade of the United Kingdom.
On 24 June 1812 and the following days, the first wave of the Grande Armée crossed the border into Russia with around 400,000–450,000 soldiers,[18][19][20] the opposing Russian field forces amounted around 180,000–200,000 at this time.[21][22][20] Through a series of long forced marches Napoleon pushed his army rapidly through Western Russia in a futile attempt to destroy the retreating Russian Army of Michael Andreas Barclay de Tolly, winning just the Battle of Smolensk in August.
---- On 19 October, Napoleon left Moscow and marched southwest toward Kaluga trying to use unspoilt roads to retreat to Smolensk.[27] After the inconclusive Battle of Maloyaroslavets, Napoleon decided to use the old Smolensk road instead, but this road had already been devastated by his own army on the march to Moscow.[28] Lack of food for the men and fodder for the horses, hypothermia from the bitter cold and guerilla warfare from Russian peasants and Cossacks led to great losses. Three days after the battle of Berezina only around 10,000 soldiers of the main army remained.[29]
On 5 December, Napoleon left the army and returned to Paris.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_invasion_of_Russia
In answer to a question about yesterday’s LIR, I think Fed Chairman Powell was dissembling. Chairman Powell is very smart. He didn’t get where he is by being clueless. Dissembling, perhaps, even probably. It’s often a reliable way to the top of the greasy pole for those willing to compromise themselves.
Dissembling for the good of the country, the banksters, politicians and the great unwashed hoi polloi, of course. After all, who wants to be blamed for telling the truth, we got it wrong.
“I have a higher and grander standard of principle than George Washington. He could not lie; I can, but I won't.”
Asian shares tread water, markets eye U.S. inflation signals
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own
Euro zone business growth at 15-year high as demand unleashed -PMI
June 23, 2021 9:17 AM By Jonathan Cable
LONDON (Reuters) - Euro zone business growth accelerated at its fastest pace in 15 years in June as the easing of lockdown measures unleashed pent-up demand and drove a boom in the dominant services sector but also led to soaring price pressures, a survey found.
When the coronavirus was spreading rapidly, governments imposed strict restrictions, encouraging citizens to stay at home and forcing much of the service industry to close.
But after a slow start the region’s vaccination drive is picking up pace and the burden on health services has eased, allowing some restrictions placed on services firms - which were already adapting to new operating conditions - to be lifted.
That led to a jump in IHS Markit’s Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, seen as a good guide to economic health, to 59.2 from 57.1, its highest reading since June 2006. It was ahead of the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and a Reuters poll estimate for 58.8.
“Accelerated vaccine rollouts and falling case numbers are allowing restrictions to be eased and consumers to feel more confident,” said Willem Sels, chief investment officer, Private Banking and Wealth Management at HSBC.
“Services, and consumption in particular, are seeing strong momentum and are now the number one engine of European economic growth.”
A flash services PMI bounced to 58.0 from 55.2, its highest since January 2018 and above the 57.8 Reuters poll prediction. Suggesting that momentum would continue, the new business index climbed to a near 14-year high of 57.7 from 56.6.
The latest easing of restrictions in Germany and France, the bloc’s two biggest economies and the only ones to report flash PMIs, led to a boom in services there as well.
---- An index measuring output which feeds into the Composite PMI nudged up to 62.4 from 62.2.
But supply side disruptions and huge demand have made it a sellers’ market for the raw materials factories need. The manufacturing input prices index rose to 88.0 from 87.1, the highest since the survey began in June 1997.
“Inflation pressures continued to mount as input prices soared in June,” said Bert Colijn at ING.
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Surging inflation is causing headaches for a cautious Bank of England
Published Wed, Jun 23 2021 4:38 AM EDT
LONDON — The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at record lows and maintain its massive asset purchase program on Thursday, but investors will be looking out for hints at tightening next year.
The central bank’s latest monetary policy meeting will be a swan song for hawkish chief economist Andy Haldane, who has warned that the “tiger of inflation” is incoming and urged policymakers to cut the bank’s £895 billion ($1.24 trillion) quantitative easing program by £50 billion.
U.K. consumer price inflation came in at 2.1% in May, exceeding forecasts and surpassing the bank’s 2% target for the first time in almost two years. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, picked up from 1.3% in April to 2% in May.
The bank projects inflation to hit 2.5% by the end of the year, but consensus remains that the spikes in inflation will be transient. Meanwhile, the labor market and other economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, prompting some speculation that the bank could indicate a path out of its extraordinarily loose policy stance. The main policy rate remains at a historic low of 0.1%.
----The BOE’s May meeting saw the Monetary Policy Committee split on whether to scale back QE, but it did signal the future tapering of asset purchases.
However, it has thus far avoided anything committal on the timing of the first interest rate hike, reiterating that more significant and sustained progress on the economic recovery would need to be evidenced.
“The run of economic data has been encouraging over recent weeks – and indeed it’s clear the economy is now outperforming last summer when restrictions were also low,” said James Smith, developed markets economist at ING.
“But the Bank’s view on growth has already been towards the more optimistic end of the spectrum, and the spread of the new Delta variant adds an extra dimension of uncertainty (though our view for now is that the economic impact probably won’t be huge). We also doubt the Bank will feel too compelled to shift market expectations as they currently stand.”
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Inflation poses new challenge for pandemic-weary businesses
NEW YORK (AP) — Small businesses that endured shutdowns and lower revenue during the COVID-19 outbreak now must contend with another crisis: spiking prices for goods and services that squeeze profits and force many owners to pass the increases along to customers.
Mickey Luongo’s company, Total Home Supply, is paying as much as 15% more than it paid pre-pandemic for the air conditioning and heating equipment it sells to other businesses and consumers. His suppliers have raised their prices because they’re paying more for raw materials, components and shipping. Luongo says some of his customers have pushed back on higher prices.
“We had one contractor who totally understood the price increase and was OK with it while other consumers get mad at us and think the increases are our fault,” says Luongo, co-owner of the Fairfield, New Jersey-based company.
Surging demand from consumers for a wide range of products during the pandemic has driven up prices for finished goods as well as raw materials, supplies and equipment. Product shortages and bottlenecks in supply chains have added to the costs.
Prices for materials and components used in construction spiked 4% in May from April and were up over 17% from a year earlier, according to the Labor Department. Manufacturers paid 2% more last month for materials than they did in April and 21% more than in May 2020. Also in the mix: intense competition for workers that has some companies paying more to attract new hires and retain current staffers.
While inflation affects all companies, small businesses struggle more than their larger counterparts. Big corporations have greater negotiating power because they buy goods and services in bulk and have much larger revenue streams to absorb higher costs. These factors make it easier for big companies to avoid passing increases along to their customers.
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"On the whole central banksters want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the time.”
With apologies to George Orwell.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, US vaccines good, all other vaccines bad, at least according to US media. I wonder if big pharma is playing dirty tricks? They wouldn’t do that, would they?
They relied on Chinese COVID vaccines. Now they’re battling outbreaks.
June 22, 2021 at 12:04 pm Updated June 22, 2021 at 7:06 pm
Mongolia promised its people a “COVID-free summer.” Bahrain said there would be a “return to normal life.” The tiny island nation of the Seychelles aimed to jump-start its economy.
All three put their faith, at least in part, in easily accessible Chinese-made vaccines, which would allow them to roll out ambitious inoculation programs at a time when much of the world was going without.
But instead of freedom from the coronavirus, all three countries are now battling a surge in infections.
China kicked off its vaccine diplomacy campaign last year by pledging to provide a shot that would be safe and effective at preventing severe cases of COVID-19. Less certain at the time was how successful it and other vaccines would be at curbing transmission.
Now, examples from several countries suggest that the Chinese vaccines may not be very effective at preventing the spread of the virus, particularly the new variants. The experiences of those countries lay bare a harsh reality facing a post-pandemic world: The degree of recovery may depend on which vaccines governments give to their people.
In the Seychelles, Chile, Bahrain and Mongolia, 50% to 68% of the populations have been fully inoculated, outpacing the United States, according to Our World In Data, a data tracking project. All four ranked among the top 10 countries with the worst COVID outbreaks as recently as last week, according to data from The New York Times. And all four are mostly using shots made by two Chinese vaccine makers, Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech.
In the United States, about 45% of the population is fully vaccinated, mostly with doses made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. Cases have dropped 94% over six months.
Israel provided shots from Pfizer and has the second-highest vaccination rate in the world, after the Seychelles. The number of new daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Israel is now around 4.95 per million.
In the Seychelles, which relied mostly on Sinopharm, that number is more than 716 cases per million.
Disparities such as these could create a world in which three types of countries emerge from the pandemic — the wealthy nations that used their resources to secure Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna shots, the poorer countries that are far away from immunizing a majority of citizens, and then those that are fully inoculated but only partially protected.
China, as well as the more than 90 nations that have received the Chinese shots, may end up in the third group, contending with rolling lockdowns, testing and limits on day-to-day life for months or years to come. Economies could remain held back. And as more citizens question the efficacy of Chinese doses, convincing unvaccinated people to line up for shots may also become more difficult.
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CDC safety group says there’s a likely link between rare heart inflammation in young people after Covid shot
A CDC safety group said there’s a “likely association” between a rare heart inflammatory condition in adolescents and young adults mostly after they’ve received their second Covid-19 vaccine shot, citing the most recent data available.
There have been more than 1,200 cases of a myocarditis or pericarditis mostly in people 30 and under who received Pfizer’s or Moderna’s Covid vaccine, according to a series of slide presentations published Wednesday for a meeting of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.
Myocarditis is the inflammation of the heart muscle, while pericarditis is the inflammation of the membrane surrounding the heart.
“Clinical presentation of myocarditis cases following vaccination has been distinct, occurring most often within one week after dose two, with chest pain as the most common presentation,” said Dr. Grace Lee, who chairs the committee’s safety group. CDC officials are gathering more data to fully understand the potential risks, how to manage it and whether there are any long-term issues, she said.
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Stanford study finds inflammation in brains of deceased COVID-19 patients
Rich Haridy June 22, 2021
New research led by the Stanford School of Medicine is offering a detailed investigation into brain tissue from those who died from COVID-19. Although no trace of the SARS-CoV-2 virus could be detected, “profound molecular markers of inflammation” were seen, offering clues as to why some patients suffer expansive neurological symptoms following infection.
Stanford neuroscientist Tony Wyss-Coray is perhaps best known for his work transferring plasma from young mice into old mice and discovering it can reverse age-related cognitive decline. Those infamous studies inspired a variety of controversial companies promising to reverse aging through transfusions of young blood.
Wyss-Coray is still investigating exactly what mechanism can explain the mouse findings, and no evidence has yet appeared to show young blood confers those same beneficial effects in humans. One hypothesis is that inflammatory responses in the brain can be triggered by factors in the blood outside of the brain.
As the COVID-19 pandemic took off last year, Wyss-Coray noticed patients frequently reporting neurological symptoms accompanying infections. And many patients still reported neurological symptoms for months after recovering from any acute disease. So two questions framed this new research – can SARS-CoV-2 actually cross the blood-brain barrier to infect a human brain, and what unusual molecular markers can be detected in the brain of a deceased COVID-19 patient?
The research team systematically analyzed 30 brain tissue samples from eight COVID-19 patients and 14 healthy controls. The brain tissue came from the frontal cortex and choroid plexus.
Using single-cell RNA sequencing to measure the expression levels of genes in over 65,000 individual cells, the researchers found a large number of genes linked with inflammatory processes were activated in the brain tissue of COVID-19 patients. Levels of T cells were also more abundant in the COVID-19 patient brains than healthy controls.
“Viral infection appears to trigger inflammatory responses throughout the body that may cause inflammatory signaling across the blood-brain barrier, which in turn could trip off neuroinflammation in the brain,” explains Wyss-Coray. “It’s likely that many COVID-19 patients, especially those reporting or exhibiting neurological problems or those who are hospitalized, have these neuroinflammatory markers we saw in the people we looked at who had died from the disease.”
Wyss-Coray says the molecular markers of inflammation detected in the study share distinct features with what is observed in neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.
It is important to note none of the patients displayed any signs of neurological impairment prior to their death. Further work looking for signs of neuroinflammation in cerebrospinal fluid from surviving COVID-19 patients will be necessary to better understand the potential long-term implications.
More
But should we be vaccinating at all, at least with the current vaccines? A prominent virologist says no. Approx. 29 minutes.
The Vaccines: Awesome Ingenuity or A Huge Mistake?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjMZvpmuaKY
REVEALED: Google & USAID Funded Wuhan Collaborator Peter Daszak’s Virus Experiments For Over A Decade.
Google funded research conducted by Peter Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance – a controversial group which has openly collaborated with the Wuhan Institute of Virology on “killer” bat coronavirus research – for over a decade, The National Pulse can today reveal.
The unearthed financial ties between EcoHealth Alliance and Google follow months of big tech censorship of stories and individuals in support of the COVID-19 “lab leak” theory.
The Google-backed EcoHealth Alliance played a critical role in the cover-up of COVID-19’s origins through its president, Peter Daszak.
Daszak served on the wildly compromised World Health Organization’s (WHO) COVID-19 investigation team. He championed the efforts to “debunk” the lab origin theory of the virus, despite mounting support for the claim first made by experts on Steve Bannon’s War Room: Pandemic podcast in early January 2020.
Left-wing websites masquerading as “fact checkers” still call the lab theory “false,” despite the shift in tone from the Biden regime, leading world scientists, and intelligence officials.
EcoHealth Alliance also funneled hundreds of thousands of U.S. taxpayer dollars from Dr. Anthony Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) to its research partner, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, to conduct studies on “killer” bat coronaviruses.
More
https://thenationalpulse.com/exclusive/google-funded-wuhan-linked-ecohealth-research/
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
'Flashed' nanodiamonds are just a phase
Rice produces fluorinated nanodiamond, graphene, concentric carbon via flash Joule heating
Date: June 21, 2021
Source: Rice University
Summary: A new 'flash' process can turn carbon black into functionalized nanodiamond and other materials. The carbon atoms evolved through several phases depending on the length of the flash.
Diamond may be just a phase carbon goes through when exposed to a flash of heat, but that makes it far easier to obtain.
The Rice University lab of chemist James Tour is now able to "evolve" carbon through phases that include valuable nanodiamond by tightly controlling the flash Joule heating process they developed 18 months ago.
Best of all, they can stop the process at will to get product they want.
In the American Chemical Society journal ACS Nano, the researchers led by Tour and graduate student and lead author Weiyin Chen show that adding organic fluorine compounds and fluoride precursors to elemental carbon black turns it into several hard-to-get allotropes when flashed, including fluorinated nanodiamonds, fluorinated turbostratic graphene and fluorinated concentric carbon.
With the flash process introduced in 2020, a strong jolt of electricity can turn carbon from just about any source into layers of pristine turbostratic graphene in less than a second. ("Turbostratic" means the layers are not strongly bound to each other, making them easier to separate in a solution.)
The new work shows it's possible to modify, or functionalize, the products at the same time. The duration of the flash, between 10 and 500 milliseconds, determines the final carbon allotrope.
The difficulty lies in how to preserve the fluorine atoms, since the ultrahigh temperature causes the volatilization of all atoms other than carbon. To overcome the problem, the team used a Teflon tube sealed with graphite spacers and high-melting-point tungsten rods, which can hold the reactant inside and avoid the loss of fluorine atoms under the ultrahigh temperature. The improved sealed tube is important, Tour said.
"In industry, there has been a long-standing use for small diamonds in cutting tools and as electrical insulators," he said. "The fluorinated version here provides a route to modifications of these structures. And there is a large demand for graphene, while the fluorinated family is newly produced here in bulk form."
---- Nanodiamonds are highly desirable for electronics applications, as they can be doped to serve as wide-bandgap semiconductors, important components in current research by Rice and the Army Research Laboratory.
The new process simplifies the doping part, not only for nanodiamonds but also for the other allotropes. Tour said the Rice lab is exploring the use of boron, phosphorous and nitrogen as additives as well.
At longer flash times, the researchers got nanodiamonds embedded in concentric shells of fluorinated carbon. Even longer exposure converted the diamond entirely into shells, from the outside in.
"The concentric-shelled structures have been used as lubricant additives, and this flash method might provide an inexpensive and fast route to these formations," Tour said.
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23-24 June, 1314. The Battle of Bannockburn, Stirlingshire. What could possibly go wrong?
The Battle of Bannockburn (Scottish Gaelic: Blàr Allt nam Bànag or Blàr Allt a' Bhonnaich) on 23 and 24 June 1314 was a victory of the army of King of Scots Robert the Bruce over the army of King Edward II of England in the First War of Scottish Independence. Although it did not bring an end to the war, as victory would only be secured 14 years later, Bannockburn is still a major landmark in Scottish history.
---- The precise numerical advantage of the English forces relative to the Scottish forces is unknown, but modern researchers estimate that the Scottish faced English forces one-and-a-half to two or three times their size.
---- Most medieval battles were short-lived, lasting only a few hours, so the Battle of Bannockburn is unusual in that it lasted two days.
---- Edward fled with his personal bodyguard and panic spread among the remaining troops, turning their defeat into a rout. King Edward with about 500 men first fled for Stirling Castle where Sir Philip de Moubray, commander of the castle, turned him away as the castle would shortly be surrendered to the Scots.[32] Then, pursued by James Douglas and a small troop of horsemen, Edward fled to Dunbar Castle, from which he took a ship to Berwick.
---- Weighing the available evidence, Reese concludes that "it seems doubtful if even a third of the foot soldiers returned to England."[33] If his estimate is accurate, of 16,000 English infantrymen, about 11,000 were killed. The English chronicler Thomas Walsingham gave the number of English men-at-arms who were killed as 700,[6] while 500 more men-at-arms were spared for ransom.[7] The Scottish losses appear to have been comparatively light, with only two knights among those killed
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