Baltic Dry Index. 3324 +69 Brent Crude 74.29
Spot Gold 1775
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 29/06/21 World 182,202,398
Deaths 3,945,677
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
John Maynard Keynes.
Below, AP comprehensively covers this morning’s news without need for input from me.
Asian stocks fall for 2nd day after new Wall St record
BEIJING (AP) — Asian stock markets declined for a second day Tuesday after Wall Street hit a new high on tech stock gains and the World Bank raised its forecast of Chinese economic growth.
Market benchmarks in Shanghai, Tokyo and Hong Kong retreated.
Overnight, Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index rose 0.2% as gains for Facebook, Nvidia and other tech stocks offset losses for other industries.
Investors are swinging between optimism about a global economic recovery underpinned by coronavirus vaccinations and worry that central banks might feel pressure to withdraw stimulus to cool rising inflation pressures.
Traders are watching U.S. jobs data due out Friday for signs of whether the labor market “will start to show initial signs of heating” after the Federal Reserve said it might move up the target date for raising interest rates, Anderson Alves of ActivTrades said in a report.
Also Tuesday, the World Bank raised its forecast of China’s economic growth this year to 8.5% from its April prediction of 8.1%. The Washington-based lender said a full recovery requires progress in vaccinations against the coronavirus.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7% to 3,580.22 and the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo shed 0.9% to 28,791.20. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 0.6% to 29,099.96.
The Kospi in Seoul retreated 0.4% to 3,289.17 and Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 lost 0.6% to 7,260.30.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose to 4,290.61 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4% to 34,283.27.
The Nasdaq composite added 1% to a record 14,500.51.
Nvidia jumped 5% after The Sunday Times in Britain reported several big customers of U.K. semiconductor company Arm came out in support of its proposed takeover by Nvidia.
Facebook climbed 4.2% after a federal judge dismissed antitrust lawsuits brought against it by the Federal Trade Commission and a group of state attorneys general. Apple rose 1.3%, Microsoft gained 1.4% and Intel climbed 2.8%.
Stock prices look expensive to some investors after rising faster than corporate profits. Inflation remains a worry, even if more investors have come around to the Federal Reserve’s view that it will be only a temporary problem.
Economists expect Friday’s U.S. jobs numbers to show employers added 700,000 more than they cut in June. That would be an acceleration following a couple months of disappointingly slow hiring. They also expect the report to show that average hourly earnings jumped 3.7% in June from a year earlier.
A sharp rise in wages would be an even bigger worry about inflation for markets than the recent jump in commodity prices. Prices of oil, lumber and other commodities can rise and fall quickly, while wage gains tend to be more durable.
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In other news, will China give the global economy some inflation relief?
Well maybe, but keep watching that US and Canadian heatwave and drought. If it eventually makes a major impact on north American grain production, food price inflation lies ahead.
Rising producer prices in China won’t likely drive up consumer costs, says JPMorgan
The recent surge in producer prices in China will not likely to drive up costs for consumers, says JPMorgan Private Bank’s Alex Wolf.
“We don’t see (producer inflation) really going into consumer prices. They’ve risen a bit, but we don’t see much of a further rise in consumer prices that would force the (People’s Bank of China) to act in any way,” said Wolf, who is head of investment strategy for Asia at the firm.
Producer inflation “has likely peaked and likely come down,” while consumer prices in some cases are also appearing to peak, he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.
Soaring production costs in China, largely due to surging commodity prices, have cut into profits for manufacturers. Official data released over the weekend showed profits at China’s industrial firms rose 36.4% in May compared to a year earlier — slower than the 57% year-on-year growth posted in April.
Meanwhile, data released in early June showed China’s producer price index in May jumped 9% compared to a year ago — the fastest clip since 2008, while the consumer price index climbed 1.3% year-on-year in May. It was the largest gap on record between the speed at which producer prices and consumer prices climbed.
“There’s not a very clear relationship between producer prices and consumer prices historically,” Wolf said.
“You’ve only seen a few instances where high producer prices do trickle down to consumer prices,” he said. “Producer prices are almost entirely driven by commodity prices.”
He added that “the only time” historically that producer inflation has has trickled down into consumer prices is “when there’s really strong consumer demand” — a situation that seems implausible for now given the sluggish recovery in Chinese retail sales.
Survey finds signs of creeping caution among Chinese consumers and businesses
BEIJING — Chinese businesses and consumers are not as optimistic on the economy as overall data might indicate, according to an independent study by the China Beige Book released Tuesday.
In its latest quarterly survey, the U.S.-based firm found that a measure of Chinese corporate borrowing fell to its lowest in the study’s history, and that expectations for loan demand in the next half year dropped — despite low interest rates.
Of particular concern, the number of retailers taking out loans fell to a record low, the report said.
“After the pandemic, it’s extremely hard to believe this is a result of adequate capital on hand,” the authors wrote. “Far more likely, retailers are split between seeing little possibility for expansion and thinking their loan applications won’t fly.”
The trend is worrying for an economy that the government is trying to drive with individual consumption.
“If credit stays this tight and Retail doesn’t break out of its coma, the economy next quarter will have a difficult time matching this level of growth,” the report said.
The study indicated second-quarter business activity was similar to that of the first, with revenue and profit unchanged and some increased hiring.
China’s GDP grew 18.3% in the first quarter from a contraction a year ago — or an increase of 10.3% compared with the same quarter in 2019. Second quarter GDP is set for release on July 15.
However, retail sales growth has come in below analysts’ expectations for the last two months.
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Elsewhere, “despite Brexit,” to use the BBC’s infamous words, GB’s doing fine.
U.K. Economy Grew More Than Estimated Before Pandemic Struck
By Andrew Atkinson28 June 2021, 10:27 BST
The U.K. economy grew more strongly than previously thought in the year prior to the coronavirus pandemic, data published Monday show.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.7% in 2019 instead of the previously estimated 1.4%, the Office for National Statistics said. That capped a decade that produced 2% average growth a year, a figure that was revised up from 1.8%.
The revisions are part of the annual Blue Book review. This year they include the impact of using double deflation, a method of calculating gross value added that aims to better capture the prices of goods and services used in the production process.
Under double deflation, the current price of both output and inputs in every industry are deflated by separate price indices.
As a result, manufacturing posted stronger growth, and an improved deflator has resulted in higher GVA in the telecommunication sector, the ONS said.
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If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialist.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
El-Erian says the Fed is behind on inflation and risks another recession if it is forced to catch up
Federal Reserve officials are underestimating inflation and risking that the U.S. could fall into another recession, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, told CNBC on Monday.
Central bank leaders insist that the recent round of price pressures will subside once short-term supply chain bottlenecks clear and the 2020 economic shutdown period is no longer part of the year-over-year comparisons.
But El-Erian said he sees growing evidence that the Fed is wrong.
“I have concerns about the inflation story,” he told CNBC’s Becky Quick during a “Squawk Box” interview. “Every day I see evidence of inflation not being transitory, and I have concern that the Fed is falling behind and that it may have to play catch-up, and history makes you very uncomfortable if you end up in a world in which the Fed has to play catch-up.”
If the central bank does fall into that position, it may have to raise interest rates and otherwise tighten monetary policy sooner than it would like.
“Normally, we end up with a recession because you have to slam on the brakes as opposed to slowly taking your foot off the accelerator, which is what believe is going to happen,” El-Erian said.
The economy is still technically in a recession that began in February 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, considered the official arbiter in such matters. However, real GDP is just a shade below where it was when the downturn started and is likely to pass that level when the second-quarter data comes in.
Inflation, though, has thwarted recoveries in the past, and recent data tell conflicting stories about the current pace.
The Fed’s favorite gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, in May rose 3.4% from a year ago, the highest level since 1992 and well above the central bank’s 2% target.
That came after a 5% increase in the consumer price index and a 6.6% burst in the producer price index, both well higher than anything the U.S. has seen since at least before the financial crisis.
But much of the price pressures have come in areas particularly germane to the economic recovery – used car prices, air fares, hotel prices and the like.
While Fed officials see those factors abating in the coming months, El-Erian said he’s not so sure, even if the financial markets don’t seem to care.
“If you were actually to look at the numbers on inflation, you would start having serious doubts in your mind as to how transitory inflation is,” El-Erian said. “But as long as the Fed believes it’s transitory, that is what matters for markets.”
Persistent Advance in Stocks and Commodities Shows Investor Confidence
Broad gauges of market performance are surging together in a way few on Wall Street have ever seen, masking volatility under the surface
June 28, 2021 5:30 am ET
Stocks and commodities are surging together in a way few on Wall Street have ever seen, a sign that demand for riskier investments remains robust.
The S&P 500 and S&P GSCI gauge of commodities enter the last few days of the second quarter up about 8% and 13% for the period, respectively. This would mark the first time that both indexes climbed at least 5% in five consecutive quarters, according to a Dow Jones Market Data analysis of figures going back 50 years.
The S&P 500 hit a high last week, buoyed by gains in technology stalwarts like Microsoft Corp . as well as consumer-focused stocks such as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc .
The persistent climb underscores how the broadest measures of market performance remain remarkably strong, masking volatility under the surface. Even as traders cope with mammoth swings in everything from Tesla Inc . to the price of lumber and concerns about the longer-term economic outlook, many investors remain confident that an expanding economy and rising corporate profits will support further gains.
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With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
‘Robust’ immune response seen in ‘mix and match’ Covid vaccine study
LONDON — Mixing and matching the coronavirus vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca-Oxford generates a “robust” immune response against the virus, a study led by Oxford University has found.
Researchers running the Com-COV study — which is looking into the feasibility of using a different vaccine for the initial “prime” vaccination to the follow-up “booster” vaccination — discovered that alternating doses of the two vaccines generated strong immunity.
However, the study found that the immune responses differed according to order of immunization, with the Oxford-AstraZeneca shot followed by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine generating the better immune response out of the two mixed schedules.
Doses of the vaccines were given four weeks apart with data for a 12-week dose interval due soon, the researchers said after publishing their latest findings on the Lancet preprint server Monday.
“Both ‘mixed’ schedules (Pfizer-BioNTech followed by Oxford-AstraZeneca, and Oxford-AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer-BioNTech) induced high concentrations of antibodies against the SARS-CoV2 spike IgG protein when doses were administered four weeks apart,” the researchers noted.
“This means all possible vaccination schedules involving the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines could potentially be used against Covid-19.”
The findings could add much-needed flexibility to vaccination programs around the world, according to Matthew Snape, associate professor in pediatrics and vaccinology at the University of Oxford, and chief investigator on the trial.
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Covid booster: first 'variant vaccine' used in new Oxford trial
The AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine has been updated to target the variant first identified in South Africa, also known as Beta
The University of Oxford yesterday injected its new variant vaccine into people for the first time.
Academics who created the original jab have updated their blueprint to target the variant first identified in South Africa, also known as B.1.351 or Beta.
This Variant of Concern emerged last year and is still in the UK at low levels. It is also less susceptible to the vaccines than other strains, scientists believe.
It became the prime candidate for the first “variant vaccine” and the AstraZeneca/Oxford team are now trialling the booster jab — called AZD2816 — in 2,250 volunteers from the UK, Poland, Brazil and South Africa.
It was previously tested in a lab and on mice and the researchers said: "AZD2816 is immunogenic after a single dose and when used as a booster dose in animals primed with [the] original vaccine.”
People are only eligible for the trial if they have already received two doses of an approved Covid vaccine more than three months prior to the study.
Sir Mene Pangalos, Executive Vice President of BioPharmaceuticals R&D at AstraZeneca, said: ‘It is important we continue to stay ahead of genetically distinct variants of the coronavirus.
“AZD2816 should help broaden individuals' immune response against emerging variants of concern.”
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Highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant spreading fast in California
Sun, June 27, 2021, 8:31 PM
The Delta coronavirus variant is now the third-most common in California, new data show, underscoring the danger of the highly contagious strain to people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19.
The variant makes up 14.5% of California coronavirus cases analyzed so far in June, up from 4.7% in May, when it was the fourth-most identified variant in California, according to data released by the California Department of Public Health.
Experts say the Delta variant poses a greater chance of infection for unvaccinated people if they are exposed. The variant, first identified in India, may be twice as transmissible as the conventional coronavirus strains. It has been responsible for the rise in cases recently in India, the United Kingdom and elsewhere.
But vaccinated people are well protected against infection and illness from the Delta variant. One recent study found that the full two-dose course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant and 96% protective against hospitalization.
There is no widespread scientific consensus on whether the Delta variant is more likely to cause more serious illness than other strains.
Delta's rise comes as California's dominant strain, Alpha, first identified in the United Kingdom, may have peaked.
In May, the Alpha variant made up 58.4% of coronavirus cases that were analyzed in California. Alpha's share fell in June, now making up 37.7% of analyzed cases — still the top variant but with a much smaller proportion.
The Gamma variant, first identified in Brazil, is also being seen more often in California. In May, the variant represented 10.1% of analyzed cases. It now makes up 21.6% of analyzed cases in the state, but Delta is still growing at a more rapid rate.
More
https://news.yahoo.com/highly-contagious-delta-coronavirus-variant-193159529.html
How the UK — where the Covid delta variant ‘exploded’ — is a blueprint for the U.S.
Published Mon, Jun 28 2021 2:46 AM EDT
Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. has been keeping a close eye on the U.K.
From its initial response to Covid-19 (questioned by many), to its much-praised immunization program and world-class research, all have helped inform how the U.S. — which faced its first major Covid outbreak after Britain — has reacted.
Indeed, the U.K.’s experience of Covid-19 has often been a harbinger of things to come for other countries., including the U.S. It has proved particularly true when it comes to Covid variants which have hit the U.K. and then gone on to dominate globally.
This was first seen with the alpha variant that emerged in southeast England late last year and went on to become dominant across the world. A similar thing then happened with the delta variant that originated in India, but was identified in the U.K. at a relatively early stage.
Both strains have proved to be far more transmissible than the original coronavirus that first emerged in China in late 2019. The World Health Organization now predicts that the delta variant — which has already spread to more than 80 countries — will become the dominant strain of the disease worldwide.
Given the U.K.’s experience of both strains at an earlier stage than many other countries, it is now being seen as something of a “test case” for what could happen in the U.S.
The first thing to note is how quickly the delta variant spread across the U.K.
In a relatively short amount of time, the strain supplanted the alpha variant to become dominant in the country (in mid-June delta was responsible for 90% of all infections, a government study showed) — and this happened despite the U.K.’s advanced vaccination rate.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/28/how-the-uk-with-the-delta-variant-is-a-blueprint-for-the-us.html
Desloratadine Vs Loratadine: Comparing The Popular Hay Fever Treatments
Scott is one of the two founders of The Independent Pharmacy. He is a registered pharmacist and the registered manager of our service with the CQC.
If you suffer from hay fever or another type of allergy, then picking the right medicine for you can be difficult. There are lots of hay fever treatments available, but how do you decide? And if you’re choosing between similar non-drowsy antihistamines such as Desloratadine vs Loratadine, it can be even harder.
It can also be tricky to research and compare different medicines because there is so much information available on the internet — and establishing which sites are trustworthy and contain useful information isn’t always easy.
That’s why we’ve created this guide — so that you can better understand each treatment, as well as the key differences between Desloratadine and Loratadine. Our intention is to help you understand the difference between these two hay fever treatments so that you can make an informed decision. We’ve also included an overview and comparison table so that you can quickly distinguish the difference between the two.
As well as that, we’ll be taking a closer look at some other popular Desloratadine alternatives, such as Claritin, Fexofenadine and Cetirizine.
Read on to find out more about Desloratadine and how it compares to your other options.
---- Desloratadine alternatives: other antihistamine treatments
It’s up to you whether you use Desloratadine or an alternative allergy treatment, antihistamine or otherwise.
There are a number of non-drowsy antihistamines that work in a similar way to Desloratadine. In the sections below we’ll be looking at these, providing an overview of:
- Desloratadine vs Loratadine
- Desloratadine vs Claritin
- Desloratadine vs Fexofenadine
- Desloratadine vs Cetirizine
More
https://www.theindependentpharmacy.co.uk/hay-fever/guides/desloratadine-vs-loratadine
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Nanotech OLED electrode liberates 20% more light, could slash display power consumption
A five-nanometer-thick layer of silver and copper outperforms conventional indium tin oxide without adding cost
Date: June 25, 2021
Source: University of Michigan
Summary: A new electrode that could free up 20% more light from organic light-emitting diodes has been developed. It could help extend the battery life of smartphones and laptops, or make next-gen televisions and displays much more energy efficient.
A new electrode that could free up 20% more light from organic light-emitting diodes has been developed at the University of Michigan. It could help extend the battery life of smartphones and laptops, or make next-gen televisions and displays much more energy efficient.
The approach prevents light from being trapped in the light-emitting part of an OLED, enabling OLEDs to maintain brightness while using less power. In addition, the electrode is easy to fit into existing processes for making OLED displays and light fixtures.
"With our approach, you can do it all in the same vacuum chamber," said L. Jay Guo, U-M professor of electrical and computer engineering and corresponding author of the study.
Unless engineers take action, about 80% of the light produced by an OLED gets trapped inside the device. It does this due to an effect known as waveguiding. Essentially, the light rays that don't come out of the device at an angle close to perpendicular get reflected back and guided sideways through the device. They end up lost inside the OLED.
A good portion of the lost light is simply trapped between the two electrodes on either side of the light-emitter. One of the biggest offenders is the transparent electrode that stands between the light-emitting material and the glass, typically made of indium tin oxide (ITO). In a lab device, you can see trapped light shooting out the sides rather than traveling through to the viewer.
"Untreated, it is the strongest waveguiding layer in the OLED," Guo said. "We want to address the root cause of the problem."
By swapping out the ITO for a layer of silver just five nanometers thick, deposited on a seed layer of copper, Guo's team maintained the electrode function while eliminating the waveguiding problem in the OLED layers altogether.
"Industry may be able to liberate more than 40% of the light, in part by trading the conventional indium tin oxide electrodes for our nanoscale layer of transparent silver," said Changyeong Jeong, first author and a Ph.D. candidate in electrical and computer engineering.
This benefit is tricky to see, though, in a relatively simple lab device. Even though light is no longer guided in the OLED stack, that freed-up light can still be reflected from the glass. In industry, engineers have ways of reducing that reflection -- creating bumps on the glass surface, or adding grid patterns or particles that will scatter the light throughout the glass.
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Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency. . . Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose.
John Maynard Keynes.
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