Tuesday, 25 April 2017

Relief Rally,Trumpmania 2, or War?

Baltic Dry Index. 1170 -25     Brent Crude 51.84

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“If we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it existed prior to 1913, we’d be fine. Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we’ve had in the United States, and that was a golden period of the gold standard. I’m known as a gold bug and everyone laughs at me, but why do central banks own gold now?” 

Alan Greenspan. June 28, 2016.

The relief rally or something more? Trumpmania 2? Is Europe counting its chickens before they’re hatched? Le Pen could still win. Will America’s War Party Trump all with a restart of the Korean war?

Dow closes up more than 200 points as French vote triggers relief rally

Published: Apr 24, 2017 4:34 p.m. ET

Nasdaq closes at record high

U.S. stocks rallied to finish higher Monday, with major indexes advancing more than 1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq scoring a record high close following a strong showing by centrist Emmanuel Macron in the French
presidential election, which averted fears of a euroskeptic-only runoff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.05% jumped 216.13 points, or 1.1%, to close at 20,763.89, led by a 3.5% surge in shares of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM, +3.53%  and a 2.9% jump in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, +2.93%  

The S&P 500 SPX, +1.08% surged 25.46 points, or 1.1%, to 2,374.15, with nine of the index’s 11 sectors trading higher, led by a 2.2% gain in financials, its biggest one-day pop since March 1, and a 1.3% rise in both industrial and tech stocks. The biggest laggard on the session was real estate, which lost 0.9%.

The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.24% finished up 73.30 points, or 1.2%, to a record close at 5,983.82, after reaching an all-time high of 5,989.92 earlier in the session.

Read: After 17 years S&P 500 tech sector finally regains lost ground

Perceived safe-haven assets like gold, the Japanese yen, and U.S. Treasurys all fell on the day. In a manifestation of relief, the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, -25.91% or VIX, often known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” dropped more than 25% to below 11, its largest one-day percentage drop since August 9, 2011.

See: VIX ‘fear gauge’ plummets as French election results spark global relief rally

Macron led the field in the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday with 23.9% of the vote, ahead of far-right euroskeptic candidate Marine Le Pen with 21.4%. The two will now face off in the final round May 7. A poll late Sunday from Ipsos/Sopra Steria showed Macron leading Le Pen, 62% to 38%.

But, is President Trump planning on restarting the Korean War? If so, the relief rally may be the risk-off, exit sell of the century. The precious metals entry point of the century.  Is a formal US “disarm” ultimatum coming? (Also see Crooks Corner.) I would adopt a full risk-off position until the USA v NK final result clarifies. Unstable North Korea may soon feel it has to strike first.

Unusual full Senate briefing to be held by White House on North Korea

Published: Apr 24, 2017 4:47 p.m. ET

In phone call with Merkel, Trump cites ‘urgent security challenge’

The Trump administration is preparing to brief all 100 senators this week on the situation in North Korea, as President Donald Trump calls the country a “real threat to the world” and confers with the leaders of China, Japan and Germany.

The unusual full-Senate briefing is scheduled for Wednesday, according to reports, and comes after Trump criticized North Korea’s “continued belligerence” in a phone call with President Xi Jinping of China on Sunday. In a separate call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday, Trump discussed “the urgent security challenge posed by North Korea,” the White House said.

The administration has expressed concern over Pyongyang’s missile tests and nuclear ambitions.
Trump has ratcheted up rhetoric against North Korea in recent days, saying Monday at the White House that “North Korea is a big world problem,” and that “people have put blinders on for decades.”

He didn’t disclose intentions, but Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that in their Sunday phone call Trump “has indicated by his words and actions that all possible options are on the table.”

A White House spokesman didn’t immediately return a request for comment about the briefing. But Reuters reported that all 100 senators have been invited to the White House for a briefing by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford.

Tue Apr 25, 2017 | 12:50am EDT

Reports of North Korea artillery drill as U.S. submarine makes South Korea port call

North Korea put on a massive live-fire drill on Tuesday to mark the foundation of its military, media reports said, as a U.S. submarine docked in South Korea in a show of force amid growing concern over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

The port call by the USS Michigan came as a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group steams for Korean waters and as the top nuclear envoys from South Korea, Japan, and the United States met in Tokyo to discuss the North's refusal to give up its nuclear program.

Fears have risen in recent weeks that North Korea could soon conduct another nuclear test or long-range missile launch in defiance of United Nations sanctions.

South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that the North appeared to have deployed a large number of long-range artillery units in the region of Wonsan on its east coast on Tuesday, conducting a large-scale, live-fire drill.

The report, citing an unidentified government source, said the live-fire exercise was possibly supervised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

----North Korea defiantly said in a state media commentary marking the 85th anniversary of the foundation of the Korean People's Army's that its military was prepared "to bring to closure the history of U.S. scheming and nuclear blackmail".

"There is no limit to the strike power of the People's Army armed with our style of cutting-edge military equipment including various precision and miniaturized nuclear weapons and submarine-launched ballistic missiles," the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a front-page editorial.

South Korea's Navy said it was conducting a live-fire exercise with U.S. Navy destroyers on Tuesday in waters west of the Korean peninsula and would soon join the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group approaching the region.

We close for the day with rump-EU powerhouse Germany facing a long term problem. But if Germany slows, who in the rump-EUSSR will pick up the slack? France, Italy, Spain? Pigs will likely fly first.  The fiat euro gets more Latin American with each passing year. The end result will be the same.

Bundesbank Sees German Growth Decline That Immigration Can't Fix

by Piotr Skolimowski and Carolynn Look
24 April 2017, 11:07 GMT+1
Germany’s aging population will probably suck some power out of the economy in the next decade and immigration won’t be enough to fix the problem.
That’s the message from Bundesbank’s monthly report released on Monday, which looks at what’s in store for Europe’s growth engine through 2025. Researchers predict that German potential growth, or the pace of expansion the economy can sustain over the longer haul, will fall to 0.75 percent from about 1.25 percent currently.
Population changes are to blame for the damping effect. The Bundesbank estimates that the total number of people in the 15-to-74 working-age group will drop by almost 2.5 million through the middle of the next decade. That’s more than 2 million fit-for-work immigrants that the study assumes will settle in Germany over the same period of time.

“Population decline as well as the aging labor force in Germany will clearly reduce the trend pace of economic growth,” the Bundesbank said. “Additionally, demographic changes will curb accumulation of capital and the pace of productivity growth.”

"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."

William F. Rickenbacker

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 30.53 Moz, Eligible 164.97 Moz, Total 195.50 Moz.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, what’s up? Why are the “Five Eyes” meeting in faraway Queenstown New Zealand? Surely they haven’t all just come for the Kawarau Bridge bungy jump. Also, I wonder who’s listening in via the Samsung TV?

FBI director James Comey arrives in Queenstown for 'Government conference'

12:38 PM Sunday Apr 23, 2017
FBI director James Comey has arrived in Queenstown for a 'top-secret' spy conference.
Comey, wearing sunglasses, a light blue shirt and chino pants, arrived on an FBI chartered Gulfstream Aerospace.
Comey was last in New Zealand in March 2016, when he met with Minister for the Government Communications and Security Bureau and Security Intelligence Service Chris Finlayson and Police Commissioner Mike Bush.
Before Comey's arrival, a CIA jet touched down on the tarmac at Queenstown Airport.
And, just like a scene out of an action flick, two security personnel stood guard as a number of men and women in suits exited the plane before being quickly ushered along the tarmac into waiting vehicles.
A quick Google search of the registration number on the white, Gulfstream Aerospace's tail revealed United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) owns the jet.
The Gulfstream has joined a second private jet at the airport, acting as added confirmation that the "Government conference" set to play out at luxury Millbrook Resort in Arrowtown in the coming week, is a meeting of spying network Five Eyes - the global alliance of the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
A fleet of undercover police cars and a security vehicle drove onto the tarmac ahead of the jet arriving.
CIA director Mike Pompeo is among members from 15 agencies believed to be attending the conference and may well have been among those onboard the plane, which jetted in via Wellington.
Police and security have been scattered across the grounds of Millbrook Resort this weekend, keeping a close eye on the comings and goings.
Millbrook Resort manager Ross McLean confirmed on Saturday that a "Government conference" was taking place at the venue but denied to provide any specific details.
"Millbrook is who we are because we do not disclose any information about any guests whether VIPs or just any couple," McLean said.
McLean said important visitors typically enjoyed the fact that the resort was quite a "relaxed area", unlike the "hustle and bustle of Queenstown".
The Herald believes the conference will take place for a week starting on Monday.
A number of police officers roamed the resort grounds on Saturday morning, while security stood at a temporarily blocked internal road that runs down the side of the reception area.
Marked and undercover police cars were spotted at various locations around the property.
A spokeswoman for the Department of Internal Affairs told the Weekend Herald that they were not involved in the visit, which was just as much of a mystery to them as the public.
The spokeswoman said if the highly secretive visit involved a head of state or ex-head of state, the department would typically be involved with organising vehicles and security with police.
Prime Minister Bill English's office this week confirmed there would be not one, but a number of VIP visitors.

Welcome to the Official Queenstown Website.

Queenstown, New Zealand, is the Southern Hemisphere’s premier four season lake and alpine resort.

Feel inspired by Queenstown’s stunning scenery, huge range of activities and renowned warm welcome. Surrounded by majestic mountains and set on the shores of crystal clear Lake Wakatipu, the natural beauty and the unique energy of the region create the perfect backdrop for a holiday full of adventure, discovery and rejuvenation. You’ll find everything you need to plan your next trip to Queenstown, from accommodation options to the endless array of activities and attractions, as well as a full calendar of events for the year.

Not only is Queenstown the Adventure Capital of the World but it is also the location of the 'World Home of Bungy Jumping'- The Kawarau Bridge Bungy!
In November 1988, Bungy pioneers AJ Hackett and Henry van Asch jumped into the World spotlight by launching the World's first commercially operated Bungy Jumping Site, off the historic Kawarau Bridge. With over 26 years of operating experience we have become renowned as one of the most exhilarating things to do in Queenstown.
If you want to be tied up & thrown off with a friend, then this is the Bungy Site for you, as it offers Queenstown’s only Tandem Bungy Jump. Just remember that sharing the thrill doesn’t mean halving the fear!
"The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Switch to solar power will save Mumbai housing society 28,000 a month

mumbai Updated: Apr 24, 2017 10:14 IST
A cooperative housing society in Mahim, which has been recycling its waste for the past six years, has now taken another step to reduce its carbon footprint. They have installed solar panels on their rooftop that will help them save Rs3 lakh every year in electricity bills.
Our Lady of Vailankani Housing Society at Mary Nagar that has two buildings — a 12-storey one with 112 flats and a seven-storey building with 48 flats — has set up a solar power panel with a capacity of 10 kilowatt (kW). The power produced by the panels would light up common areas (lobbies, staircases). A Mumbai house with two bedrooms, on an average, uses 8 to 10 kW electricity daily.
Setup at a cost of Rs 7.5 lakh earlier this month, the 32 panels with solar photovoltaic cells will substantially reduce the society’s monthly electricity bill. The residents have estimated that their monthly electricity bill which comes to Rs 55,000 will be reduced by Rs 28,000.
It is one of first housing complexes in Mahim to use solar power to meet part of their energy needs. “Keeping the sermons of the church in context of the imminent issue of climate change, we have like-minded citizens who want to do their bit to protect the environment,” said AM Sodder, secretary of the housing society. “Not only are we harnessing energy that reduces the carbon footprint, but also our garbage is not adding to the city’s solid waste management woes.”
A recent study by the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IIT-B) and think-tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF) found that Mumbai, with its ample sunlight and vast array of roots, has the potential to generate 1.72 Giga Watt Peak (GWp) solar energy through photovoltaic (solar) panels installed atop buildings. This means solar energy can take care of half of Mumbai’s power needs.
The buildings also have a net-metering system, which allows surplus power generated by solar panels to be exported back to the grid. At the end of a financial year, the society will be charged by the electrical power supplier only for the ‘net usage’.
Although this is their latest green initiative but not the only one. The housing society has been recycling kitchen and garden waste through composting for the past six years. They have managed to save 2.19 lakh kg of organic waste from reaching the city’s overburdened landfills and generated almost three tonnes of manure. The residents have created four concrete compost pits located at one end of the complex where 10 kg of daily wet waste (vegetable, kitchen discards) is dumped. “We use sugarcane stems with gunny sacks at the base of each compost pit to ensure enough moisture. After dumping the waste, we add sawdust, dried leaves and water to breakdown the compost into manure faster,” said Inacio Ciriaco Fernandes, manager of the residential complex.
He added that the manure is used to nurture three gardens within the complex. “We sell excess compost at Rs15 per kg to residents and even other nearby societies as the finished product is voluminous,” said Fernandes.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March

DJIA: 20,663  +131 Up. NASDAQ:  5,912 +165 Up. SP500: 2,363 +135 Up.

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