Tuesday, 18 April 2017

How Do You Spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E.

Baltic Dry Index. 1296 Thurs.       Brent Crude 55.39

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Every generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.

George Orwell.

With Asian geopolitics’ and Sunday’s French election well covered in mainstream media, this morning we turn to today’s alarming red flag and klaxons blaring from China. To this old dinosaur trader, it seems like a summer of storms lies ahead. This adds to global tightening at a time when the Fed is tightening, inflation is starting to reappear, and Europe looks set to be forced away from negative interest rates. If an anti-Euro candidate wins next month’s French run-off presidential election, promising to take France out of the eurozone, the euro will enter into terminal decline. 

If the euro is history rather than the future, all fiat currencies will come under severe test, for all fiat currencies are deeply flawed, and drinking in the last chance saloon. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver. 2017 may just be the start of a long period of stress.

China foreign-direct investment falls 48.8%

Published: Apr 18, 2017 12:52 a.m. ET
BEIJING--China's overseas direct investment outside the financial sector dropped sharply in the first quarter as authorities stepped up scrutiny of capital flowing out of the country.

The country's nonfinancial outbound direct investment stood at $20.54 billion in the three months through March, down 48.8% from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said.

Outbound investment for March alone fell 30.1% at $7.11 billion, the ministry said.

Up next, is the euro now the most dangerous fiat currency on the planet?

French Race Up for Grabs Days Before Voters Cast First Ballots

Geraldine Amiel and Vidya Root
France’s presidential race enters its final stretch with no clear winner in sight as the main contenders scrap for votes in a flurry of campaign rallies.

“Everyone is petrified,” said Edouard Lecerf, head of the political department at polling firm Kantar Sofres. “The challenge for each of the four candidates is to seek new votes without alienating their base. French voters are like fish, like eels -- very slippery.”

With almost a third of the electorate still undecided, and the front-runners clustered around 20 percent in the polls for the first round on April 23, the race is the most unpredictable the country has seen in recent history. With two of the four candidates also hostile to the institutions of the European Union, the result of the runoff two weeks later will have far-reaching implications not just for France but for the region as a whole.

----According to Elabe’s latest poll, released Monday, support for Macron stands at 24 percent, while Le Pen is at 23 percent. Fillon holds 21 percent, followed by Melenchon at 18 percent. Le Pen has threatened to take France out of the EU, while Melenchon wants to renegotiate the bloc’s treaties, including the one that keeps the country in the euro. Macron would defeat any of his rivals in the runoff, the survey showed, so long as he can get there.

Below, what were Merkel, Juncker, Schultz, Tusk, Hollande and all the rest smoking when they scuppered Dodgy Dave Cameron’s EU reform, farewell tour last year, and sent him home with an empty envelope to sell to UK voters?  And let’s not get started on cars. Imposing tit-for-tat tariffs after Brexit hits continental Europe far harder than it does the UK which could import detergent from anywhere in the world it likes. But why impose tariffs at all? Why ship European jobs to Brazil, Mexico, India and Africa? Get back to the EU’s original purpose, free trade, job creation, wealth creation, and wider prosperity for all. End the wealth and jobs destroying, dying EUSSR, bankster cartel. Brexit now and a reformed rump-EU, as Turkey declares war on the EUSSR.

Brexit ‘Alarm Bells’ Set to Ring as Chemical Makers See Disorder

by Jonathan Stearns and Viktoria Dendrinou
17 April 2017, 00:00 BST
----For clues to the complexity of separating the U.K. from the rest of the EU chemicals market, take an everyday consumer good like soap.

One popular detergent sold in U.K. supermarkets is made from chemicals that cross the Channel several times during the manufacturing and distribution processes, according to Mensink, who said the raw material is produced in France, reworked in the U.K., shipped to Germany and returned for packaging to Britain.
The finished product is then distributed throughout the EU.

France's Macron Says German Trade Surplus Harmful to EU Economy

by Elisabeth Behrmann
17 April 2017, 00:00 BST
France’s independent presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, tied with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in polls before the election, said Germany’s large trade surplus is harmful to the euro-zone economy and called for more balance.

“Germany benefits from the imbalances within the euro zone and achieves very high trade surpluses,” centrist candidate Macron said in an interview published Monday with Germany’s Funke Mediengruppe and France’s Ouest-France newspaper. “Those aren’t a good thing either for Germany or for the economy of the euro zone. There should be a rebalancing.”

Germany’s growing export surplus has raised concerns for the global economy as well as the European Union after reaching a record in 2016. U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade adviser accused the nation of exploiting a “grossly undervalued” euro. Critics say that Germany’s dominance is undermining EU nations’ economies and urge its government to take steps to boost domestic demand and imports.

Macron, 39, is tied with Le Pen, an anti-immigration, EU-skeptic candidate, with 22 percent support for the first round of France’s election on April 23, according to an Ipsos/Sopra Steria poll for Le Monde. The most unpredictable presidential vote in a generation has become a four-way race with far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon surging alongside Republican Francois Fillon.

Erdogan Says He Doesn't Care What Europe Thinks About Turkey's Vote

by Isobel Finkel
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan treated a crowd of supporters gathered outside his presidential palace on Monday evening to a speech laced with invective against Europe, saying his victory in a referendum on Sunday took place under conditions that were democratic beyond compare.

Erdogan belittled both domestic and foreign critics of the voting process, which culminated in a slim majority of Turks approving changes to 18 articles of the constitution that concentrate more power in his hands. A monitoring group from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe -- which said the referendum took place on an "unlevel playing field" -- "should know its place," he said.

"We don’t care about the opinions of ‘Hans’ or ‘George,’" Erdogan said, using the names as stand-ins for his European critics. "All debates about the constitutional referendum are now over."

Brexit Joke of the Day.

Pythagoras's theorem - 24 words.
The Lord's Prayer - 66 words.
Archimedes's Principle - 67 words.
The 10 Commandments - 179 words.
The Gettysburg address - 286 words.
U.S. Declaration of Independence - 1,300 words.
U.S. Constitution with all 27 Amendments - 7,818 words.
EU regulations on the sale of cabbage - 26,911 words.

In American War Party news, President U-turn seems to have played himself into very a dangerous corner.

Mon Apr 17, 2017 | 1:23am EDT

Pence stresses 'era of strategic patience' over as he visits Korean DMZ

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence stared across the demilitarized border between North and South Korea on Monday, a day after North Korea's failed missile launch, reiterating that the U.S. "era of strategic patience" with Pyongyang was over.
Pence is on the first stop of a four-nation Asia tour intended to show America's allies, and remind its adversaries, that the Trump administration is not turning its back on the increasingly volatile region.
The demilitarized zone (DMZ) is a heavily mined, four-km-wide (2.5-mile-wide) strip of land lined with barbed wire running across the Korean peninsula, with soldiers on both sides in a continual eyeball-to-eyeball standoff.
Pence, whose father served in the 1950-53 Korean War, said the United States would stand by its "iron-clad alliance" with South Korea and was seeking peace through strength.
"All options are on the table to achieve the objectives and ensure the stability of the people of this country," he told reporters as tinny propaganda music floated across from the North Korean side.
He said U.S. President Donald Trump has made clear he won't talk about specific military tactics.
"There was a period of strategic patience but the era of strategic patience is over," Pence said.

China, Russia send ships after U.S. aircraft carrier

The Japan News/Yomiuri First Published Apr 16 2017 01:15PM
China and Russia have dispatched intelligence-gathering vessels from their navies to chase the USS Carl Vinson nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which is heading toward waters near the Korean Peninsula, multiple sources of the Japanese government revealed to The Yomiuri Shimbun.

It appears that both countries aim to probe the movements of the United States, which is showing a stance of not excluding military action against North Korea. The Self-Defense Forces are strengthening warning and surveillance activities in the waters and airspace around the area, according to the sources.

The aircraft carrier strike group, composed of the Carl Vinson at its core with guided-missile destroyers and other vessels, is understood to be around the East China Sea and heading north toward waters near the Korean Peninsula.

China and Russia, which prioritize stability in the Korean Peninsula, showed concern over the tough U.S. stance, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying the issue should be resolved peacefully through political and diplomatic efforts.

The dispatch of the intelligence-gathering vessels appears to be partly aimed at sending a warning signal to the United States.

In ordinary news, the global wobble seems to be picking up speed again. From London the Trump honeymoon looks to be ending, though a seasonal uplift should mitigate against a hard landing for now.

Boeing to Dismiss Hundreds of Engineers Amid Sales Slowdown

by Julie Johnsson
Boeing Co. plans to lay off hundreds of engineers in Washington state and other locations -- and may eliminate more jobs later this year as the planemaker contends with slowing aircraft sales.

The manufacturer plans to hand out pink slips on Friday, the same day that 305 engineers and technical workers will leave voluntarily under an earlier buyout offer. Boeing has pared 1,332 of the jobs from its Seattle-area manufacturing center since the start of 2016, according to SPEEA, the union representing the workers.

Boeing may make additional engineering cuts depending on “our business environment and the amount of voluntary attrition,” John Hamilton, vice president of engineering for the commercial airplanes unit, said in a letter to employees Monday. The dismissals are needed to “meet our operating plan and additional challenges in the marketplace.”

The Chicago-based company, which emerged as the face of U.S. manufacturing under President Donald Trump, has been winnowing employment for more than a year as a record jetliner sales spree fades. Boeing trimmed the Washington workforce by 9 percent to 70,640 employees over the past year. The company’s total headcount has shrunk 7.6 percent to 146,962 since March 2016.

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 30.29 Moz, Eligible 161.28 Moz, Total 191.57 Moz.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In fake news, China’s economy beat the official number. Yes of course it did. No really! Now back to that bridge I have for sale in Brooklyn.

China’s Economy Accelerates as Retail, Investment Pick Up

Bloomberg News
17 April 2017, 03:00 BST 17 April 2017, 06:28 BST
China’s economy accelerated for a second-straight quarter as investment picked up, retail sales rebounded and factory output strengthened amid robust credit growth and further strength in property markets.

Gross domestic product increased 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 6.8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. It was the first back-to-back acceleration in seven years.
Other indicators released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed:
  • Fixed-asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 9.2 percent for the first three months, accelerating from 8.1 percent growth last year
  • Retail sales increased 10.9 percent from a year earlier in March, compared with a median estimate of 9.7 percent in a Bloomberg survey
  • Industrial output rose 7.6 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with an estimated 6.3 percent rise
"For the first time in the recent years, China starts a year with a strong headline GDP," said Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong, who correctly forecast the growth pace. "Thanks to strong investment and property, the economy is performing well."
The expansion further cements a rebound as producer prices surge, industrial output picks up and soaring credit fuels investment. Policy makers have shifted to a more neutral monetary stance as they seek to ease financial risk and reduce excess industrial capacity.
"The first quarter growth is mainly driven by reflation and very strong property sales and investment," said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. "This strong data would give more confidence to maintain a tightening stance."

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

No update today. Normal service tomorrow.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March

DJIA: 20,663  +131 Up. NASDAQ:  5,912 +165 Up. SP500: 2,363 +135 Up.

No comments:

Post a Comment