Capitalism
is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most
wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.
John
Maynard Keynes
Note: During the week I introduced a new page section for following developments in solar power and batteries, and revamped the Graphene section to start listing the weekly developments.
Note: During the week I introduced a new page section for following developments in solar power and batteries, and revamped the Graphene section to start listing the weekly developments.
Up first, how Wall
Street’s Vampire Squids and crooked gambling banksters got it all so wrong last
year. Almost unanimously, they bet heavily on the Hillary Clinton campaign, and
a Wall Street friendly President Clinton paying back their bets over the next
four years. They could have saved all
the millions, and simply bet blue state. Trumpmania is off to a postwar record
in US stocks. Who knew draining swamps, locking up opponents, and building
walls, could be such fun!
The markets are moved by animal spirits, and not by reason.
John Maynard Keynes
Dow’s rally from election to Trump’s
first 100 days is a postwar record
Published: Apr 28, 2017 10:51 p.m. ET
As President Donald Trump nears his 100th day in office on Saturday, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average has booked the best performance in the postwar era
under a first-term president when measured from Election Day through the 100th
day in office, according to Dow Jones data.The Dow DJIA, -0.19% has rallied 14.22% since Trump’s stunning Nov. 8 election victory over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton after a campaign promising a raft of Wall Street friendly policies, including tax cuts, deregulation and a boost in infrastructure spending. (The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.19% has gained about 11.6% over that period, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.02% has climbed 16.5%.)
For first-term presidents overall, including those before World War II, Trump ranks fourth, trailing Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Republican presidents Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover.
----Just looking at Trump’s
first 100 days in office since he was sworn in on Jan. 20, he ranks seventh in
Dow performance, but second for a first-term president, with a 6.12% return;
while the S&P 500 has gained about 5.32% over the period, placing the
Republican roughly fifth on the equity gauge created in 1971.
More
Greenspan Says Trump Has a Math Problem With His Budget
by Rich Miller
28 April 2017, 12:00 GMT+1
President
Donald Trump’s budget numbers don’t add up and his tax and spending plans are
likely to lead to bigger deficits and higher interest rates, said former
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
“His
arithmetic is the problem,” Greenspan said in a Bloomberg Television interview
with David Westin aired on Friday.
Trump has
said he intends to slash corporate and individual taxes in an effort to make
the U.S. more competitive and boost economic growth. The president has also
pledged to ramp up military outlays.
The
trouble, Greenspan said, is that Trump doesn’t seem willing to make the
commensurate cuts in federal spending to offset his tax and defense plans. In
particular, he said, what’s needed is a reduction in so-called entitlement
expenditures on pensions and health care for the elderly.
“You’re
going to get a very large budget deficit” otherwise, said Greenspan, who now
heads his own Washington-based consulting firm. That, in turn, will lead to
higher long-term interest rates as investors react to rising inflation, he
added.
Greenspan
did have kind words for Trump’s steps to reduce and remove regulations
throughout the economy. That “has been very valuable” and has contributed to
the strength of the stock market, he said.
In Brexit news, “so
far so good” says Moody’s. Still, that’s what the man who fell off the Empire
State building said as he passed the 30th floor. The UK economy is
largely hostage to what happens next in the economies of America, China and
continental Europe. If they boom, the UK economy benefits too. If they bust, …..
It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.
John Maynard Keynes
Moody's: UK economy
holding up well, despite emerging signs of softer consumption and housing
market activity
Global Credit Research - 27 Apr 2017
London, 27 April 2017 -- Macroeconomic conditions in the UK remain firm
overall, despite some signs of slowing consumption and a moderating housing
market, Moody's Investors Service said in its latest Brexit Monitor today. The report, "UK Brexit Monitor", a regular publication covering key economic and political developments about Brexit, focusing on the UK, is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access the report using the link at the end of this press release. The research is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
"A pick-up in industrial production, particularly in the capital goods segment, has supported UK economic activity in early 2017," said Colin Ellis, a Moody's Managing Director and co-author of the Brexit Monitor. "While indicators point to risks of softer consumption growth, surveys suggest output growth is resilient, manufacturers' export orders are rising and investment intentions are stabilising, albeit at low levels."
Resilient macroeconomic conditions in the UK since the June 2016 referendum on EU membership support Moody's central view of a "modest and manageable" credit impact of Brexit for UK issuers.
Investment sentiment has returned to pre-referendum levels in the first two months of the year supported by a brightening outlook for global growth, but remains below five-year averages.
Consumption-related indicators are in line with five-year averages, but lost some momentum in the first quarter. Rising price pressures, softer house price growth and a dip in survey indicators for household credit availability are emerging headwinds.
Trade balance indicators are below five-year averages and have deteriorated on a year-on-year basis since the referendum. Surveys point to rising export orders in manufacturing supported by a pick-up in global growth, but this trend is less visible in the services sector.
Consumer price inflation is broadly in line with five-year averages, but has edged higher since the referendum on the back of rising import prices.
More
In other news, the
most expensive goods freight line in history, continues to expand. China just imported the most expensive scotch whisky on the planet.
29 April 2017 - 05H00
First direct London-China train completes 12,000 km run
BEIJING
(AFP) -
The first
freight train to link China directly to the UK arrived in the eastern Chinese
city of Yiwu Saturday after covering over 12,000-kilometres (7,500 miles),
making it the second-longest route in the world.
The
journey is the latest effort in China's drive to strengthen trade links with
western Europe along a modern-day "Silk Road" route.
The
world's top trading nation launched the "One Belt, One Road" strategy
in 2013, and has since poured millions into constructing vast infrastructure
links.
The train
-- loaded with whisky, baby milk, pharmaceuticals and machinery -- departed
London on April 10 and passed through France, Belgium, Germany, Poland,
Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan during its 20-day trip before arriving in Yiwu
in eastern Zhejiang province, a major wholesale centre for small consumer
goods.
The new
route is longer than Russia's famous Trans-Siberian railway, but about 1000
kilometres shorter than the record-holding China-Madrid link, which opened in
2014.
London is
the 15th city to be linked to a new freight network offered by the state-run
China Railway Corporation, which says its services are cheaper than air
transport and quicker than shipping.
The
journey should be 30 days faster than moving the goods by ship, the provincial
government had said, but the pilot run took two days more than the 18 days
expected.
And the
train, named the East Wind, has much less carrying capacity -- just 88 shipping
containers, according to the Yiwu government, compared to the 10,000 to 20,000
containers cargo ships can carry.
It is
unclear how much the venture cost, and some experts have questioned whether the
ambitious project makes economic sense.
----China already has a regular direct freight train service to Germany, Europe's largest economy.
One route
links the Chinese megacity of Chongqing to Duisburg, a steel-making town and
one of Germany's most-important transportation and commercial hubs.
More
We close for the
weekend with a timely article on France, sent in by a reader. Whoever wins next
weekend’s run-off election it is well worth the time spent browsing.
100 Best Things to do in France
France is the number one tourist destination worldwide, and it is not difficult to see why. Quite apart from the diversity of its national monuments – many but by no means all of which are to be found in the capital city of Paris – it offers culture, tradition, fascinating history, romance and charm as well as fantastic cooking and first-rate wines.It is interesting to note, when you are visiting France, that the French are extraordinarily nonchalant about the beauties and treasures in their wonderful country, almost as if they took them for granted. They live, eat and sleep with them in a completely different way to the rest of the world. For that reason, it is often difficult to find information about the lesser-known gems of antiquity or beauty hidden away in the remoter regions of France. This list of the best things to do in France will shed light, not only on the attractions and monuments with which everyone is acquainted, but on other equally beautiful or significant attractions which are all but unknown.
More
Melenchon Attacks Macron as Le Pen Fights to Win His Supporters
by Helene Fouquet and Mark Deen
28 April 2017, 18:13 GMT+1
The
left-wing populist Jean-Luc Melenchon, who was eliminated from France’s
presidential election this week, declined to endorse centrist front-runner
Emmanuel Macron as he looked to keep hold of his 7.1 million voters ahead of a
parliamentary ballot in June.
Melenchon,
who came fourth in Sunday’s first-round vote, said he won’t vote for the
anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen in the runoff on the May 7 in a
32-minute video posted on his official YouTube channel late Friday. But he also
aimed criticism at the centrist Macron who has won endorsements from most of
his mainstream rivals, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
“We can’t
really call this a choice,” Melenchon said. “The nature of the two candidates
makes it impossible to come out of this with stability.”
“One
because he’s the extreme of finance, the other because she’s the extreme
right,” he added, saying his party, France Unbowed, will reach the second round
in 450 of the 577 constituencies up for grabs in the lower chamber of
parliament in June and Macron sees him as a “threat.”
Politicians
and observers across the European Union have been transfixed by the French
election with Le Pen promising to pull out of the euro and erect barriers to
trade with the rest of the bloc while Macron has vowed to revive the
Franco-German partnership to begin a new era of continental cooperation.
More
With Macron widely
tipped for a Clintonista coronation, I think I’ll put a tenner on Le Pen. With
Macron lacking members in the Parliament, he’s going to be hostage to the
entrenched two big party powers if elected.
There
is no harm in being sometimes wrong - especially if one is promptly found out.
We close as usual
with an update from Jason Jencka in sunny California.
Amid Prediction of a Landslide
Victory for Moderate Macron, the Wildcard of Voter Turnout Lurks: Enthusiasm
Can “Trump” Polls
N. Jason
Jenka April 28, 2017 1:47 am ET
In the days since the first round of
the French presidential election on April 23rd, global markets have been buoyed
by confidence in the impending triumph of
former investment banker and moderate Europhile Emmanuel Macron over
nationalist Marine LePen. The real risk of a fully Eurosceptic second round runoff between LePen and
Jean-Luc Melenchon had evidently been averted, the Euro was in a broad rally
and volatility was subdued. This thesis has been supported by early polls
showing Macron with a ~20 percent lead in direct polling against LePen. Lurking
within these numbers though is a significant enthusiasm gap that LePen can
exploit, conceivably to an extent that could stun complacent global observers.
Lurking as an under-discussed element of
current polling is the fact that 55% of voters in the first round of elections
did not support Macron or LePen and thus cannot be firmly classified into
either camp. The refusal of Melenchon, recipient of nearly 20% of the vote, to
endorse Macron only adds fuel to the fire of electoral uncertainty in the
second round Further, the risk of abstention is real with any lowered turnout
being to the advantage of less-numerous but more motivated LePen voters. This
possibility is roundly ignored in the media at present but recent precedent exists for polls
underestimating the election day might of a motivated minority when running
against an uninspiring moderate; just ask President Trump.
Sources:
Karen Gilchrist-CNBC April 27th 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/28/macron-lead-narrows-voter-abstention-threatens-to-le-pen.htm
Robert Mackey, The
Intercept April 28th, 2017: https://theintercept.com/2017/04/28/melenchon-hero-frances-far-left-will-not-vote-le-pen-wont-endorse-macron/
N. Jason Jencka is presently studying Finance and
Economics at Sierra Nevada College, located near the shores of Lake Tahoe on
the border of California and Nevada. His interests include the interplay
between world markets and the global political sphere, with a focus on developments
of both sides of the Atlantic in North America and Europe. In his leisure time
he enjoys connecting with those people that have an interesting story to tell
and a genuine desire to make an impact in the world.
