Tuesday, 13 December 2016

Trumpmania v The Fed.

Baltic Dry Index. 1069 -21   Brent Crude 55.55

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will winter be?)

Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.

Mark Twain.

It is day one of the Fedster’s two day meeting in Washington. It is universally expected that they will increase their key interest rate tomorrow by a tiny quarter of one percent. Will it be enough to stop Trumpmania in US and global stock markets? That’s unlikely, I think. Mania’s run and run, until an outside event shocks the market, or the insider cronies stage a bear raid, generating a panicked sell-off allowing the bear raid to generate massive profits. 

My guess is that Trumpmania will run on into early January. Even so, I would ever so cautiously buy puts, using the new highs to add scaled, highly speculative, fully paid up, deep-out-of-the-money stock futures put options.  In the first six months of a Trump presidency, a nasty clash with China looms. Forr more on that scroll down to Crooks Corner.

Trump rally could mark biggest postelection stock market rise since Hoover

By Sue Chang Published: Dec 12, 2016 4:43 p.m. ET

Yardeni: ‘The mania phase of this bull market may be under way’

If the postelection stock market rally continues at its current pace it could be the largest stretching back to the gains scored in the wake of Herbert Hoover’s 1928 election victory.
Major indexes are trading at record levels with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11%  up more than 5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.20%  rising 7.8% since Nov. 8 over optimism that President-elect Trump will usher in a new era of economic boom on the back of higher fiscal spending and pro-growth policies.
Blogger Macro Man on Monday noted that the Trump surge is already among the biggest following an election going back more than a century. For historical context, the blog looked as far back as 1896, tracking the market’s performance between election day and inauguration and then the following 12 months after a new president has been sworn in.
“The Trumpflation rally is already quite a bit bigger than average, though there have been postwar rallies that have been bigger (Clinton, JFK, Ike.). Then again, we’re only halfway between the election and the inauguration; if the market keeps this up, it will be the biggest postelection rally since [Herbert] Hoover,” according to Macro Man.

----Hoover’s victory was followed by a double-digit percentage gain by inauguration day on March 4, 1929 (inauguration was moved to Jan. 20 by the 20th amendment in 1933). However, that was followed a little under eight months later by the Crash of 1929, which stands as a signpost for the start of the Great Depression.

----Apart from history, the market has few other Trump cards to count on, according to Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at the eponymous consultancy.
While some investors argue for taking some money off the table in the wake of the gains, Yardeni argues there’s plenty of room for euphoria to build.
 “The mania phase of this bull market may be under way. It may have further to go once overseas cash actually does get repatriated and if retail investors start to pile into the market,” wrote Yardeni in a report.

Japan Stocks Rally as Yen Drops on Fed Countdown; China Steadies

by Emma O'Brien and Kana Nishizawa
Japanese stocks rallied as the yen weakened before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting this week, while Chinese stocks reversed earlier declines amid strong economic data. Bonds consolidated following a two-month collapse.

The yen traded near its weakest in 10 months against the dollar as the Fed begins a two-day policy meeting. Shares in Shanghai rallied and yuan government bonds declined after China’s official data showed stronger-than-expected industrial output and retail sales. Sovereign debt in most other markets snapped declines as oil failed to build on a rally spurred by OPEC’s deal with rivals to curb production.

Investors are focused this week’s Fed meeting and the impact of People’s Bank of China monetary tightening, with inflationary pressures coming to the fore of global central-bank thinking. The market sees 100 percent odds of a rate hike in the U.S. Wednesday, and a two-in-three chance of additional tightening by June. Chinese regulators are pushing money market rates higher and curbing leveraged purchases of both stocks and bonds.

We close for today with Bloomberg speculating on just how fast OPEC can drain the swamp. Of course, for any draining to happen all the liars and cheats must stick to their pledges and Libya, Nigeria, Brazil, US frackers and Canada’s tar sands producers, must all resist producing extra production to gain market share. Pigs will probably learn how to fly first.

OPEC-Russia Deal Could Drain Almost Half the Global Oil Surplus

by Grant Smith 12 December 2016, 18:04 GMT
On paper, OPEC’s supply deal could drain almost half the global oil glut within six months.

Record inventories accumulated since 2014 will dwindle at a rate of about 760,000 barrels a day in the first half of next year if OPEC and 11 other oil producers deliver the supply cuts pledged on Dec. 10, according to Bloomberg calculations using data from the International Energy Agency. Over the six months covered by the deal, that would remove 46 percent of the 300 million-barrel stockpile surplus OPEC aims to clear.

Reaching that target would require full compliance with the almost 1.8 million-barrel cut promised by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their other allies. That’s an achievement that has eluded previous supply deals.

Bringing about a crude-supply deficit of 760,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2017 would require OPEC to fully implement its 1.2 million barrel-a-day cut, a goal that is challenged by rising production from exempt members Libya and Nigeria. Among non-OPEC producers, it would be crucial that Russia completely follows through on its pledge to gradually curb output by as much as 300,000 barrels a day.

Full compliance with the deal would mean OPEC crude supply in the first half is about 400,000 barrels a day lower than demand, the data show. If the 11 non-OPEC nations stick to their pledges, their combined output would be 17.97 million barrels a day over the period, almost 360,000 barrels a day lower than the IEA’s current forecast.

The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.

Walter Bagehot.

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 37.92 Moz, Eligible 141.80 Moz, Total 179.72 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In the rapidly developing Trump v China war, China is threatening to get rough.  Below the BBC reports on China’s final warning of it red line. But is anyone listening in Trump Tower?

Trump on China: Beijing 'seriously concerned' over policy

12 December 2016
China says it is "seriously concerned" after President-elect Donald Trump expressed doubts about continuing to abide by the "One China" policy.
Under the policy, the US has formal ties with China rather than the island of Taiwan, which China sees as a breakaway province.
In a TV interview on Sunday, Mr Trump said he saw no reason why this should continue without key concessions.
China urged Mr Trump to understand the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue.
Beijing's reaction came in a statement from foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, who told reporters that the "One China" policy was the basis for relations with Washington.
The "One China" understanding has been crucial to US-China relations for decades.
---- In the interview, broadcast by Fox News on Sunday, Mr Trump said: "I don't know why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade."

---- Reaction in the normally hawkish Global Times, which is linked to the ruling Communist Party, was less nuanced than the foreign ministry.
The "One China policy cannot be traded", it warned, and called for a strong response.
"China must resolutely battle Mr Trump, only after a few serious rebuffs then will he truly understand that China and other global powers cannot be bullied."
---- So far, at each stage - from Mr Trump's campaign rhetoric, to his protocol-breaching phone call with the Taiwanese president - China has been measured in its response, daring to hope that it has all been based on bluster or miscalculation.
That may now begin to change, with the blow-hard state-run tabloid, The Global Times, true to form in being the first to up the ante, with the talk of retaking Taiwan by force, or of arming America's foes.

‘Donald Trump is ignorant and one-China negotiations won’t happen’, state media says

Editorial in state-run newspaper hits back at US-president elect after he questions whether Washington should be bound by one-China policy
PUBLISHED : Monday, 12 December, 2016, 11:27am UPDATED : Monday, 12 December, 2016, 12:29pm
China’s state-run Global Times went on the offensive on Monday after Donald Trump’s remarks questioning whether the US should continue its one-China policy.
In an editorial published on Monday, the Global Times, slammed the US president-elect for being “as ignorant as a child in terms of foreign policy” as it ruled out negotiation over the one-China policy.
Beijing would have no reason to “put peace above using force to take back Taiwan” if Trump abandoned the policy, which recognises Taiwan as part of China, stated the editorial in the state-run newspaper published by the People’s Daily.
---- In Global Times, the editorial stated: “The one-China policy is not something that can be negotiated. It seems Trump knows only about business. He thinks he can put a price on everything.
“At that time [after Trump abandons the one-China policy] ... mainland China will put forward a series of decisive new Taiwan policies. We will prove that the United States no longer dominates the Taiwan Strait.”
---- The Global Times editorial said Trump would be wrong if he thought the one-China policy could be used as leverage to force Beijing into make concessions on trade and other issues.
“It seems Trump needs to study foreign affairs humbly. He particularly needs to learn what the relationship between China and US is about,” the editorial said.
“Many people will be amazed by how ‘business-minded’ the new US leader is, and how he is as ignorant as a child in terms of foreign policy.”

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

High performance graphene photodetectors set speed record

Date: December 8, 2016

Source: Graphene Flagship

Summary: Graphene is an ideal material for optical communications systems. A new, waveguide-integrated photodetector now sets a record high bandwidth for ultrafast, high data rate graphene devices.

Graphene is an ideal material for optical communications systems. A new, waveguide-integrated photodetector from AMO, Germany sets a record high bandwidth for ultrafast, high data rate graphene devices.
Graphene-based technologies are proving integral to the new generation of communications -- enabling high performance optical communication systems through ultra-fast and compact optoelectronic devices. Researchers from the Graphene Flagship working at TU Vienna, Austria and AMO, Germany, have demonstrated ultrafast photodetectors that have the highest reported bandwidth for graphene-based devices, enabling data rates of up to 100 Gbit/s. The research, recently published in Nano Letters, points the way towards graphene applications in high-speed communications systems.
Simone Schuler, a researcher at TU Vienna, explained the importance of increasing data capabilities. "These kinds of photodetectors are typically used in optical data links, which form the back-bone of the internet. The maximum operation speed of a photodetector defines the maximum data rate the detector can receive. So, the faster the photodetector the more data it can receive."
Graphene's properties make it ideal for next-generation optoelectronics and optical communications systems. Its excellent electrical properties and broadband optical absorption are highly suited for high-performance optoelectronic devices, and it can be readily integrated with silicon photonic systems. The photodetector demonstrated here is highly sensitive, due to its very compact structure. This enables the use of such detectors alongside other opto-electronic devices including switches in functionally dense, integrated chips. 
"This could open the path towards a complete integration on one CMOS chip. Graphene will be the enabling material for realising high performance photodetectors on a silicon platform," added Schuler.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November

DJIA: 19124  +53 Up NASDAQ:  5324 +41 Up. SP500: 2198 +58 Up

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