Baltic Dry Index. 1196 -02 Brent Crude
54.51
Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will winter
be?)
There can be few
fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world
of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is
dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to
appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
The UK Supremes, all 11 of them, get to sing next month, but first
they have to hear the highest paid talkers in the land of Camelot, set out
their cases for and against the UK Parliament, aka the longest running farce in
the world, having a say in Brexit. For more on the UK Supremes scroll down to
Crooks Corner.
In the aftermath of the Italian vote, below the happy spin from Bloomberg
Berlin. Move along now. Nothing to see here. [Yet.] The Great Disconnect is
back with a vengeance. Dress up time for year-end stocks has arrived. The
hedgies, rent-seeking Great Vampire Squids, banksters and their pawns the
central banksters, aren’t going to let a dose of unpleasant reality, get in the
way of the year-end bonuses. We long ago left “irrational exuberance” behind as
the fiat currencies start to die. Buy the rumour sell the fact. I suspect that
the Trumpmania rally has further to travel until we get closer to January 20.
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Europe suffers Italian blow but bigger tests loom
But the vote, which pushes Renzi out of office, does represent a significant setback for Europe at a time when its leaders are scrambling to mount a credible response to Brexit, the election of Donald Trump in the United States and their stubborn economic woes at home.
In one fell swoop, it adds another country to the list of EU members that are likely to be pre-occupied by domestic politics in 2017, a year in which the Dutch, French, Germans, and possibly the British, will go to the polls.
And it sends a warning to other European reformers like Francois Fillon, the conservative frontrunner for the French presidency, who has promised no less than five referendums to push through his domestic agenda if he is elected next spring.
More immediately, despite the relatively calm reaction of financial markets on Monday, the vote will deepen concerns about Italy's under-funded banking sector and the economic prospects of the euro zone's third biggest member state.
That, in turn, could complicate the calculus for the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday to decide on the future of its controversial bond purchase program.
"This won't push Italy back into crisis for now," said Marcel Fratzscher, head of the DIW economic institute in Berlin and a former top official at the European Central Bank.
"But it means lost time for a country that faces huge problems with its banks, its enormous public debt levels and high unemployment. There is a significant danger that the reform course will now slow."
Renzi, seen by his European partners as an anchor of stability in a country where political upheaval has been the norm for decades, won just over 40 percent of the vote in the referendum, a far worse result than polls had predicted.
His defeat comes only days after deeply unpopular French President Francois Hollande, also a leftist, bowed to political realities and announced he would not seek a second term.
Renzi's departure could lead to early elections in Italy next year. It increases the risks of the anti-euro 5-Star Movement gaining power, although the prospect of that remains slim.
After the Brexit vote went bad for David Cameron in June, it is the second time in half a year that the leader of a major EU member state tied his future to a referendum and lost, a development that was seized upon by the region's anti-EU firebrands.
"The Italians rejected Renzi and the EU," Marine Le Pen of France's far-right National Front said on Twitter.
"This vote looks to me to be more about the euro than constitutional change," added Nigel Farage of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).
But unlike Britain, polls show that a solid majority of Italian voters are in favor of both the EU and the euro. They were encouraged to vote "no" by all of the major parties in Italy outside of Renzi's Partito Democratico (PD).
His defeat therefore, which came on the same day that Austrian voters sent a far-right candidate to defeat in a presidential run-off, looks less like a rejection of Europe and the political establishment, and more like a serious miscalculation on the part of Renzi.
"When a prime minister who will always be remembered for taking office through an old-style party coup calls a national referendum in a country that's still struggling to emerge from a triple-dip recession, he can expect an unfavorable result," said Nicholas Spiro of Lauressa Advisory.
More
Asia stocks bounce as risk appetite returns after Italy vote
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS bounced 0.8 percent, its biggest daily rise since Nov. 22, breaking two days of falls. Korea .KS11 climbed 1.2 percent while Japan .N225 rose 0.8 percent.
"Global risk sentiment roared back after falling prey to the initial Renzi fallout and whatever negatives Italy creates for the eurozone, yesterday was not the time for a euro implosion," said Stephen Innes, senior trader at online FX platform, OANDA.
Wall Street rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones industrials setting fresh record highs following a services sector report that showed further strength in the domestic economy.
Services sector activity hit a one-year high in November, with a surge in production boosting hiring, following on the heels of Friday's employment report that showed strong job gains last month.
The services news pushed short-dated Treasury yields higher with two-year benchmark yields stabilizing near the 1.13 percent level, not far from a six-year high of 1.17 percent tested in late November.
Interest rates futures FFZ6 implied traders saw a 93 percent chance the Fed would raise rates by a quarter point to 0.50-0.75 percent next week, CME Group's FedWatch showed.
Chinese markets were in particular focus after benchmark indices stumbled on Monday, led by large-caps, after the top securities regulator warned against "barbaric" share acquisitions. Hong Kong .HSI stocks rose.
"The Hong Kong market is being squeezed higher on short covering but there is limited upside with traders remaining cautious ahead of China trade data on Thursday," said Andrew Sullivan, managing director, sales trading at Haitong International Securities Group in Hong Kong.
More
Dow closes at all-time high as Trump rally marches on
By Sue Chang and Anora Mahmudova Published: Dec
5, 2016 4:46 p.m. ET
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at a record on Monday
as solid economic data offset concerns about Europe’s stability in the wake of
a rejection of Italy’s vote on Sunday to reform existing constitutional rules.
The broader stock market
rose after a survey showed that the services side of the economy grew at its
fastest pace in November in a year. The Institute of Supply Management nonmanufacturing index
climbed to 57.2 last month. Any reading over 50 indicates economic expansion.
The Dow industrials DJIA, +0.24% rose 45.82 points, or 0.2%,
to end at 19,216.24, after touching an intraday record of 19,274.85. Visa
Inc. V, +2.10% Nike Inc. NKE, +2.75% and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GS, +2.32% were the top gainers on the Dow.
The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.58% climbed 12.76 points, or
0.6%, to close at 2,204.71 with financials and technology sectors leading the
index higher.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.01% advanced 53.24 points, or 1%, to
finish at 5,308.89.
This is “a continuation of the postelection rally and there is still
money that thinks the new administration will be good for the market,” said Ian
Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
U.S. stocks jumped in
November as investors bet that fiscal policies of President-elect Donald
Trump’s administration, such as tax cuts and infrastructure spending, will can
help to boost the economy.
More
With West Texas Intermediate crude trading back above $51 again, I
suspect that many US frackers are forward hedging next year’s production, and
bringing forward plans to bring on stream
already drilled wells. Thanks to OPEC, Christmas came a little early to
surviving US frackers.
"In
economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 35.17 Moz, Eligible 142.58 Moz, Total 177.75 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks or scoundrels today, just the humble men
and one humble woman who get to decide if the UK law trumps UK voters in 21st
century Great Britain. Whichever way they decide, controversy lies. I wonder if
any have read The Wealth of Nations, or Book of Proverbs?
When the righteous
increase, the people rejoice, but when the wicked rule, the people groan.
Proverbs 29:2
Who Are the Supreme Court Judges That Will Decide on Brexit?
The 11 members of the
top U.K. court face unprecedented public and political pressure over Brexit.
by Kit Chellel and Patrick Gower
December
4, 2016 — 7:03 PM EST
Britain’s
exit from the European Union is now in the hands of a golf enthusiast, a
bellringer and ex-banker, among others, who sit as judges on the U.K. Supreme
Court.
Starting
Dec. 5, these 10 men – and one woman – will decide whether Prime
Minister Theresa May needs to hold a vote in Parliament before
formally notifying the EU. It’s by far the biggest case in the seven-year
history of the court, and is the first where all 11 will sit together to hear
arguments. The case brings with it a level of scrutiny that’s rarely experienced
by British judges, even those at the top of the profession.
Unlike in the U.S., judges on the U.K. Supreme Court aren’t household names.
In fact, outside of legal circles, it’s hard to find someone who can name one.Also unlike their American equivalents, the judges aren’t seen in political terms. Lawmakers are not involved in their selection, which is done by an independent commission. British judges almost never express personal views and pride themselves on an ability to apply cold reason in defiance of popular or political pressure.
That doesn’t mean they don’t have opinions. As Lady Brenda Hale has already discovered, even the most careful speech can (and will) be picked through for clues about how they might interpret the Brexit challenge.
Here’s a brief guide to the 11 judges of the U.K. Supreme Court:
More
The Wealth Of Nations, Book II, Chapter III, p.346,
para. 36.
The statesman
who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ
their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention,
but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single
person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so
dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to
fancy himself fit to exercise it.
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap
AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC?
A quantum computer next?
Flying start for world's first graphene-enhanced aircraft
Date: November 28, 2016
Source: Graphene Flagship
Summary: Prospero, the first model aircraft to incorporate a
graphene skinned wing, was successfully flown at the Farnborough International
Air Show in the UK earlier this year. The flight sets an example of how
graphene might be used within the aerospace sector
Prospero, the first model aircraft to incorporate a graphene skinned
wing, was successfully flown at the Farnborough International Air Show in the
UK earlier this year. The flight sets an example of how graphene might be used
within the aerospace sector. Prospero will be exhibited at Composites Europe in
Düsseldorf, Germany, 29 November until 1 December 2016.
Graphene exhibits impressive mechanical, thermal, electrical and barrier
properties which are important features within the aerospace and automotive
sector. It can be used as a nano-additive within thermoplastics and thermosets
to improve the mechanical properties of the base material and also reduce
weight. Upon further optimisation, thermal, electrical and barrier properties
can also be imparted into a material, opening opportunities for multifunctional
performance.
The test flight of Prospero represents a new stage in a research
partnership which is investigating the effects of graphene in drag reduction,
thermal management and ultimately the ability to achieve lightning strike
protection for aerospace and other related sectors. This research is a joint
collaboration between The University of Manchester and the University of
Central Lancashire and several SMEs, including Haydale Composite Solutions.
The University of Manchester is a partner of the Graphene Flagship, EU's
largest ever research initiative. During Composites Europe the Graphene Connect
Workshop will highlight the wide range of applications for graphene in the
aerospace sector.
James Baker, Graphene Business Director at the National Graphene
Institute, said: "This collaboration between academia and industry is a
great example of how graphene might be used as a potentially disruptive
technology in a market like aerospace and help maintain Europe's position in
the market. At Composite Europe 2016 we will also launch a drone with graphene-
polypropylene propeller blades that shows improvement in both mechanical and
thermal properties. Graphene as a material is still relatively new but already
we are seeing a range of applications not only for aerospace but also in many
other markets."
Billy Beggs, Engineering Innovation Manager at the University of Central
Lancashire, said: "The tests were very encouraging and proved to us that
graphene has huge potential for aerospace; it is very strong, yet lightweight
and flexible at the same time. Through the data collected from those initial
flights our research has now moved on to the next level by developing processes
of infusing graphene into composite structures. This newly skinned wing,
produced by our industrial partner, Haydale Composite Solutions, is enabling us
to test the structural and weight saving benefits of graphene. The research
team is still in the early stages of flight testing with the new remotely
piloted aircraft but initial test data is already very encouraging. In terms of
impact resistance, the new wing is showing increased levels of impact
resistance of up to 60% over a conventionally-skinned carbon fibre wing."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161128084523.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November
DJIA: 19124
+53 Up NASDAQ: 5324 +41 Up. SP500: 2198 +58 Up.
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