Friday, 28 October 2016

The End of Western Civilisation.

Baltic Dry Index. 798 -04   Brent Crude 50.49

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will winter be?)

“As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.”
Donald Tusk. One of five unelected EU Presidents.

We open today with Brexit 1 Remainiacs 0. Project Fear, which so rightly cost Dodgy Dave Cameron his political career, and little boy George Osborne his job as Chancellor, and any prospect of ever becoming a British Prime Minister, was always unlikely to succeed. John Bull is not easily cowed, and dragging in a succession of foreign leaders to issue ever more dire predictions of the consequence of leaving the wealth and jobs destroying EUSSR, was inept to say the least. In or out of the failing EUSSR Bilderberger vanity project, GBs success mostly depends on what happens next in the American economy, China’s economy, the EU economy, and the Japanese economy. A bust in any likely ushers in the next global recession, which will impact GB whether in or out of the sclerotic, unreformable, grand committee of  27 nations plus "Walloonia."

The EU as is, is no longer fit for purpose, and since we can’t reform it, John Bull is better off taking his chances with the rest of the world. GB’s not going anywhere, it will still be just 20 miles from France and still share a land border with the Republic of Ireland after Brexit. It will live up to its NATO mutual defence commitments, and will largely be guided by reciprocity in its dealings with the rump-EU. After the Wallonia CETA fiasco, who in their right mind will try to negotiate trade deals with the EU? Strangely, Canada doesn’t get a say in the new CETA, which probably means the Waloonatics got nothing changed.

Below, GB and Europe for better or worse.

When I want to call Europe who do I call?

Henry Kissinger.

Brexit Doomsayers Defied as Economy Expands and Nissan Invests

October 27, 2016 — 11:44 AM BST Updated on October 27, 2016 — 2:29 PM BST
The pessimists will have to wait.

The U.K. economy performed better than anyone expected since the vote to leave the European Union and, as a bonus, Nissan affirmed its commitment to the U.K. with a decision to build two new car models at its plant in Sunderland.

Both give those who championed a split fresh reason to cheer and helped to counter the pre-referendum warnings from the Treasury and most economists that choosing Brexit would cast the economy into recession and repel foreign investment. The question now for the economy, and those charged with leading it through the messy divorce from the EU, is whether that resilience endures or soon crumbles.

----As the Office for National Statistics announced at 9:30 in London that growth was 0.5 percent in the third quarter -- above the 0.3 percent forecast -- it said there was “little evidence of a pronounced effect” from the referendum result. GDP rose 2.3 percent compared with a year earlier. The pound temporarily erased its decline and gilts rose.

----Nissan isn’t the only company to commit to the U.K. this week. Even with questions over how London-based financial institutions will do business with the EU after Brexit actually happens, Axa SA’s real estate unit said it will proceed with a plan to build the tallest approved tower in the City of London. It had reviewed the project after the referendum.
The latest U.K. expansion marked a 15th quarter of growth and leaves the economy on course to match Germany and outpace the broader euro-area this year, underpinning the case of those who argue the U.K. didn’t need to be in the EU to prosper.

Nissan Commits to Build New Models in Britain, Securing 7,000 Jobs

October 27, 2016 — 12:08 PM BST Updated on October 27, 2016 — 1:35 PM BST
Nissan Motor Co., the biggest auto producer in the U.K., promised to maintain production at its Sunderland plant in northern England, defusing a spat with the British government over potential compensation connected to Brexit.

The Japanese automaker will manufacture the next generation of Qashqai and X-Trail sport utility vehicles at the factory, the company said in a statement on Thursday. The plant already makes 2,000 cars daily including Qashqai, Note, Juke and Leaf models.

“Support and assurances” from the U.K. government persuaded Nissan to continue investing in the site, which employs more than 7,000 people and supports another 28,000 supplier jobs, Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said in the statement. “I welcome British Prime Minister Theresa May’s commitment to the automotive industry.” 

Last month, Ghosn said Nissan may ask the U.K. to compensate it for any negative consequences resulting from Brexit and balked at making new investments in the Sunderland plant, which manufactures about a third of all cars produced in the country. Indications that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May favors a so-called hard Brexit -- gaining greater control over immigration but losing membership in the single market -- have raised concerns that U.K. exports might face tariffs in the EU.

Belgians reach deal on EU-Canada free trade agreement

Thu Oct 27, 2016 | 6:43am EDT
Belgian politicians reached a deal on Thursday to break a deadlock over a planned EU-Canada free trade agreement that all 27 other EU governments support but the French-speaking south of Belgium had rejected.
Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel told reporters that the heads of Belgium's regions and linguistic communities had produced a common text to allay concerns about agricultural imports and a contentious dispute settlement system.
Any deal agreed in Belgium will still have to be put to the other 27 EU members for approval before CETA itself could be signed.

Belgium breaks deadlock over EU-Canada trade pact

Thu Oct 27, 2016 | 8:37am EDT
Belgium agreed a deal with its regional parliaments on Thursday to approve a landmark EU-Canada free trade agreement, breaking a deadlock that has blocked the pact for weeks.
Prime Minister Charles Michel said the heads of the regions had drawn up an addendum to the agreement that answered their concerns over the rights of farmers and governments - an addendum that still needs the approval of Canada and other EU states.
Canada called the announcement a "positive development", a cautious welcome echoed by European Council President Donald Tusk, who chairs EU leaders' summits.
But both stopped short of declaring the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a done deal.
"Only once all procedures are finalised for EU signing CETA, will I contact (Canadian) PM @JustinTrudeau," Tusk said in a tweet.
All 28 EU governments back CETA, which supporters say could increase trade by 20 percent, but Belgium had been prevented from giving its consent because of objections led by its French-speaking Wallonia region.
Wallonia, along with the capital Brussels and Belgium's grouping of French speakers, had opposed the deal for weeks, saying it was bad for Europe's farmers and gave too much power to global corporate interests.
Belgium's Prime Minister Michel did not give detail on Thursday on how Wallonia's concerns had been allayed in the addendum. But the premier of the Flemish region, Geert Bourgeois, said the original 1,598-page text of the trade deal stood.
"This is a clarification, the actual treaty does not change," he said
Failure to strike a deal with such a like-minded country as Canada would have called into question the EU's ability to forge other deals and damage credibility already battered by Britain's vote to leave the bloc and disputes over the migration crisis.
Canada's trade minister Chrystia Freeland, who walked out of talks in Walloon capital Namur last Friday, had asked, if the EU could not do a deal with Canada, who could it do a deal with.

Canada approval not needed for addendum to EU trade deal: source

Thu Oct 27, 2016 | 10:51am EDT
Canada will not be required to approve a declaration that Belgium agreed with its regional parliaments to seal an EU-Canada free trade deal, a source close to the talks said on Thursday.

"As a unilateral Belgian declaration, Canada's approval will not be sought or needed," said the source, who asked to remain anonymous given the sensitivity of the situation.

Italian Consumer Confidence Falls in Setback for Renzi’s Plans

October 27, 2016 — 9:08 AM BST
Italian consumer confidence dropped this month to the lowest since July 2015, in a setback for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s plans to spur economic growth.
The household gauge in October dropped to 108 from a revised 108.6 the month before, statistics agency Istat said Thursday in Rome. The median estimate of 11 analysts in a Bloomberg survey called for 108.6. Manufacturing confidence gained to 103 from 102.1 in September.
Renzi is betting that a Dec. 4 referendum on political reform will give him the backing needed to push through his economic agenda. The ballot has turned into a test of the 41-year-old premier’s popular backing, with opinion polls giving a slight edge to a “No” vote against his reform plans.
The latest figure for Italy’s economic growth, which stalled in the three months through June, will be released Nov. 15. The preliminary number for the third quarter could have an impact on voter sentiment with the referendum less than three weeks afterward.
Italians who are satisfied with their personal economic situation total 51 percent, down from 55 percent in 2015, savings-bank association ACRI said in a survey released Wednesday. Fifty-four percent of Italians don’t have “confidence” or have “little confidence” in the European Union, according to the survey conducted late last month and early this month.

Elsewhere, nothing works as intended in the central banksters voodoo world.

BOJ core inflation sees weakest rise in 3 years

Published: Oct 28, 2016 1:25 a.m. ET
TOKYO--The Bank of Japan said Friday that its preferred inflation gauge rose 0.2% from a year earlier in September, the slowest increase in three years, underlining Tokyo's struggle to decisively end deflation.

The rise in the BOJ core index, which measures consumer prices excluding fresh food and energy, compared with a 0.4% increase in August and marked the weakest gain since September 2013. It has trended lower since peaking at 1.3% in December last year as the yen rebounded and as domestic demand remained 

Officials use the indicator to capture underlying price trends. The BOJ targets stable 2% inflation

The bank also said a consumer price index that strips out items showing the sharpest price movements fell 0.1% on year. Known as the 10% trimmed mean, the gauge is also used by officials in measuring the broad undercurrent of prices. The decline was the first since a 0.1% fall in June 2013.

The data followed a string of figures released earlier in the day by the government that suggested the economy continued to limp along as consumers remained tightfisted despite jobs growth.

Global bond rout sends U.S. 10-year yield to highest close since June

Published: Oct 27, 2016 4:26 p.m. ET

Inflation, fiscal-stimulus expectations drive government debt markets

Global bond markets sold off sharply Thursday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note closing at its highest level since June on growing doubts about prospects for further monetary stimulus by major central banks.

Yields pulled back modestly from session highs after a well-received sale of seven-year Treasury notes, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.11%  ended the day up 5.3 basis points, or 0.053 percentage points, at 1.843% — the highest close since June 1. The 10-year yield has risen 24 basis points this month, but remains down 43 basis points year to date. Yields rise as debt prices fall.

Remarks in Asian trading hours by Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda reiterating a desire for a steeper Japanese yield curve — the differential between long- and short-dated bond maturities — contributed to early selling, while a stronger-than-expected reading on U.K. gross domestic product was also a factor, said Donald Ellenberger, senior portfolio manager and head of multisector strategies at Federated Investors

Germany's HSH Nordbank seals charter of Hanjin ships to Maersk

Thu Oct 27, 2016 | 9:18am EDT
Germany's HSH Nordbank [HSH.UL] has arranged a deal which will see six container ships from collapsed South Korean line Hanjin chartered out to Denmark's AP Moller Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), the state-backed lender said on Thursday.

This is one of the first examples of Hanjin's lenders looking to resolve the fallout from the shipping firm's collapse in August, which has left an estimated $14 billion in cargo stranded on its ships.

HSH, which was among a consortium of banks that had financed Hanjin ships, said in a statement that Maersk's container unit, the world's No. 1 line, would operate the six vessels.

"The chartering of the container ships by Maersk Line means that, in a difficult setting, these ships have been given a long-term perspective following the insolvency of Hanjin," said HSH's chief risk officer Ulrik Lackschewitz in the statement.

"In Maersk Line we have a strong partner at our side for this transaction."

Maersk confirmed the arrangement without providing further details.

The global container shipping sector is struggling with its worst ever market conditions, caused by a glut of ships and slowing global trade, which has battered earnings and forced at least one out of business.

What improves the circumstances of the greater part can never be regarded as an inconveniency to the whole. No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.
Adam Smith. The Wealth Of Nations, Book I Chapter VIII

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 29.99 Moz, Eligible 143.22 Moz, Total 173.21 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Presented without comment. 

Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.

Bernie M. with apologies to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.

Bernie Madoff Explains Himself

24 Oct 2016 By Carmen Nobel
One December evening in 2011, while preparing a lesson plan, Harvard Business School professor Eugene Soltes picked up the phone for his weekly conversation with Bernie Madoff.
Soltes, who was doing an in-depth investigation on white-collar crime, had been interviewing Madoff every Wednesday evening for several months. Madoff, a renowned stockbroker turned fraudster, conducted the phone calls from FCI Butner, a medium-security federal correctional institution in North Carolina. At the time, he was serving the third year of a 150-year prison sentence for orchestrating the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.
Madoff’s phone-time allowance was limited, and he saved much of it for his conversations with Soltes. They conversed in 15-minute chunks, the maximum amount of uninterrupted call time that the prison would allow.
The professor and the felon shared a genuine, geeky interest in financial economics. Sometimes they discussed the early days of Madoff’s career, which began in 1960. Other times they chatted about new books, academic journal articles, or recent events in the news. But that evening Soltes led the conversation with a specific question: How would you explain your actions and misconduct to a group of students?
Madoff’s three-minute response, posted here, is an extemporaneous reflection on accountability. “In hindsight, when I look back, it wasn’t as if I couldn’t have said no,” Madoff says toward the end of a recording punctuated with many halting instances of “uhh” and “you know.”
He doesn’t sound remorseful in the recording, but he displays some self-recognition. “It wasn’t like I was being blackmailed into doing something, or that I was afraid of getting caught doing it,” he continues. “I, sort of, you know, I sort of rationalized that what I was doing was OK, that it wasn’t going to hurt anybody.”
Soltes now plays the recording for students in his MBA and Executive Education courses. His goal is not to garner a discussion of Madoff’s massive crime, but rather to help students realize something important about themselves. In short, the recording shows students that knowing the difference between right and wrong is not sufficient to avoid falling into the behavioral traps people can face when under pressure to succeed.
Answering a single question, Madoff exhibits several all-too-familiar cognitive biases, psychological tendencies that can lead to irrational behavior. “In a three-minute recording, we hear Madoff describe a multitude of common biases,” says Soltes, the Jakurski Family Associate Professor of Business Administration at HBS. “They’re amplified—biases on steroids, in Madoff’s case. But they’re biases that we all have, that we all experience.”
For example:

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Kuwait starts up its first solar power plant

Wed Oct 26, 2016 | 10:59pm BST
Oct 26 Kuwait began operating its first-ever solar power plant on Wednesday at the Umm Gudair oil field, a landmark for the OPEC member country as it seeks to diversify its sources of energy to meet fast-rising local demand.

The 30-million Kuwaiti dinar ($99 million) project, Sidrah 500, will produce 10 megawatts (MW) of electricity, half of which will be supplied to the public electricity network.

The other half will be used to supply the oil field itself, which is owned by Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), a subsidiary of state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (IPO-KUWP.KW) (KPC).

Kuwait announced plans last year to generate 15 percent of its energy needs via renewable sources by 2030.

Consumption of electricity is rising rapidly in Kuwait, as throughout the rest of the Gulf region. The country's electricity and water minister estimated last year that demand would reach 30,000 MW per day by 2030.

In a speech at the project launch, KOC chief executive Jamal Ja'afar told reporters that Sidrah 500 represented the country's first step toward that goal.

"We hope that by 2020 we can make 20 percent of the electricity which will be needed to run KOC from alternative energy," he said.

The opening of the plant follows increased interest in renewables in Kuwait and across the Gulf region in recent years, as the scale of the consumption challenge has become clear.

Another weekend, and the penultimate weekend before Americans get to vote and bring their long running tragi-comedy to an end. For the rest of the world it can’t end soon enough, though most of Europe’s media have already “coronated” Hillary Clinton. Now that really might bring on the end of western civilisation. I suppose I will now have to go out and find out the cost of building a nuclear bomb shelter! But will I have enough money left over to stock it if I build it?  Have a great weekend everyone

"As Chancellor, I would have a responsibility to try to restore stability to the public finances and that would mean an emergency Budget where we would have to increase taxes and cut spending."

Former Chancellor George Osborne, thankfully destroying his over promoted political career.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September

DJIA: 18308  +28 Up NASDAQ:  5312 +21 Up. SP500: 2168 +32 Up.

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