Baltic Dry Index. 890 -04 Brent Crude
52.13
Each success only buys an admission ticket to a more difficult problem.
Henry Kissinger.
It is Black Monday plus 29 years. We
are 29 years into central banks directly rigging markets since the Great
Nixonian Error of fiat money so spectacularly blew up global stock markets,
Monday October 19, 1987. Fallen former guru Greenspan and his team of insiders
on Wall Street rigged the Major Market Index opening in Chicago next morning,
at a time that the NYSE was still closed in New York, while the NY City Fed
team of riggers and fix-its flooded the pre-opening with buy orders and call
option orders, trapping the NYSE behind an ongoing Chicago stock rally, triggering
panic short covering from those on the wrong side of the Fedster’s great rig. We
have had nothing but rigged and fixed markets ever since, as the Fed’s pet
favourite cronies now have the Fed trapped in their corner ever since.
Today the Great Rig now largely depends
on events in Asia, where the Giant Chinese Ponzi Scheme is starting to unwind,
generating massive capital flight, and in Japan, where in the land of the aging
setting Sun, the whole nation has embarked on a never ending slow motion currency
suicide plan. That it all ends in another 1987 or 2008 is certain, what isn’t
known is when China, Japan, the EU, or America blows up, or why. It largely
doesn’t matter which is first. The next systemic failure takes out the
increasingly destructive Great Nixonian Error of fiat money. Stay long fully
paid up physical gold and silver, held outside of the fragile, bankster houses.
Below, the latest news from Asia. To no
one’s great surprise, China hit the number yet again! Japan just poked China
and South Korea in the eye with a sharp stick.
China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises
China's economy expanded at a steady 6.7 percent in the third quarter
and looks set to hit Beijing's full-year target, fueled by stronger government
spending, record bank lending and a red-hot
property market that are adding to its growing pile of debt.
Wednesday's data painted a picture of an economy that is slowly
stabilizing but increasingly dependent on government spending and a housing
boom for growth, as private investment and exports remain stubbornly weak.
Some economists believe Beijing has had to "double down" on
stimulus this year to meet its official growth range of 6.5 to 7 percent, and
say the government's obsession with meeting hard targets may hurt both planned
reforms and the long-term health of the world's second-largest economy.
"So far this year they have clearly chosen to do everything they
can to meet the growth targets, and now there is a little bit of an upward
surprise from the housing market which actually will help them with GDP growth
this year," said Louis Kuijs, head Of Asia economics
at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
"The question really is, is the leadership willing to move to
somewhat lower growth targets in order to put growth on a more sustainable
footing, or will it feel obliged to continue to hang on to those very high
growth targets."
The economy grew at the same clip in the third quarter year-on-year as
in the first and second quarters, as analysts polled by Reuters had expected.
Government infrastructure projects and the property boom have spurred prices
and demand for raw materials and goods from cement and steel to furniture.
On a quarterly basis, it grew 1.8 percent, again in line with
expectations but easing slightly from the previous period.
Economists believe the greatest near-term risk for China is a possible
correction in the high-flying property market, which accounts for about 15
percent of GDP.
More
Asian markets rise as China reports healthy growth
Published: Oct 18, 2016 11:19 p.m. ET
Investors remain cautious of ECB meeting Thursday
Asian shares were broadly higher early Wednesday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street, while key data out of China met market expectations.The world’s second-biggest economy expanded 6.7% in the third quarter from a year earlier, matching growth in the previous quarter, official data showed Wednesday. The figure was also in line with a forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, September retail sales data jumped 10.7% from a year earlier, matching expectations, though industrial output, which gained 6.1% from a year earlier, was below the 6.4% forecast.
The numbers show that the Chinese government’s capacity control measures are working, helping boost prices charged by manufacturers, said Alex Wong, director of asset management at Ample Capital in Hong Kong.
“In terms of pricing power, China manufacturers are in a better position now,” he said.
More
China housing sales up whopping 43% year to date
Published: Oct 18, 2016 11:48 p.m. ET
BEIJING--China's housing sales gained steam in the first three quarters
of the year, just before a slew of cities tightened home-buying rules to ease
worries about property bubbles.
Housing sales rose 43.2% in the first nine months of the year from the
same period a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau
of Statistics on Wednesday. In the year through August, sales rose 25.6% from a
year earlier.
In September alone, housing sales rose 61.2% from the same month a year
earlier, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal. That was up from
August's 33% gain from the same month a year ago.
Investment in real-estate development expanded 6.8% to 1.2 trillion yuan
in the January-September period, from 5.4% growth in the first eight months of
the year.
Construction starts across residential and commercial real estate rose
6.8% in the year through September to 1.2 billion square meters, down from a
12.2% gain in the year through August.
Chinese authorities have recently imposed a slate of property-buying
restrictions due to concerns about bubbly markets fueled by rising household
leverage. Over China's week-long national holiday known as Golden Week in early
October, at least 21 cities--including first-tier, second-tier and a handful of
third-tier cities--rolled out home purchasing limits, including higher
down-payment requirements and caps on buying second homes.
China's banking regulator said on Oct. 13 that surging real
estate-related loans posed "new challenges" to the government.
Property loans made up 40% of new loans issued by Chinese banks in the year
through August, with mortgages comprising roughly two-thirds of those loans,
the regulator said.
Meanwhile Japan pokes China
and Korea in the eye. Will China retaliate by fixing North Korea’s wonky
missile? Japan it seems from far away autumnal London, has
learnt nothing since 1945. Would we stand for German Parliamentarians visiting
a Nazi shrine.
Japan lawmakers' group visits Yasukuni shrine for war dead
Dozens of Japanese members of parliament visited the Yasukuni Shrine for
war dead on Tuesday to mark an autumn festival at the shrine, seen in China and
the two Koreas as a symbol of Japan's past militarism.
Kyodo news agency said about 80 lawmakers visited the shrine. Health,
Labour and Welfare Minister Yasuhisa Shiozaki sent an aide to represent him, an
official at Shiozaki's office said. Earlier, Kyodo had said Shiozaki himself
went.
The group visit came a day after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sent a ritual
offering to the shrine, prompting a sharp rejoinder from China and a reminder
from Tokyo's close ally Washington of the importance of reconciliation over the
past.
Visits by Japanese leaders to Yasukuni have outraged China and South
Korea because the shrine honors 14 Japanese leaders convicted by an Allied
tribunal as war criminals, along with other war dead.
South Korea expressed "deep concern and disappointment" over
the shrine visit and offering by Japanese political leaders.
"(We) urge Japanese politicians to gain trust from neighboring
countries and the international community by showing an act of humble
introspection and sincere self-reflection on the foundation of the correct perception
of history," the foreign ministry said in a statement.
In Beijing, China's foreign ministry also expressed concern.
"We hope Japanese political figures can adhere to correct
historical views and do more to realize reconciliation and increase mutual trust
with neighboring Asian countries," spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily
news briefing.
Abe has visited the shrine in person only once, in December 2013, since
becoming premier the previous year. Eager to improve ties with China and South
Korea, strained by territorial and other disputes, he has instead opted to send
ritual offerings on several occasions.
More
We close for the day with America, where UK media,
all card carrying Team Clinton campaign members if not fanatics, have stopped
covering Trump except negatively. In UK media land at least, The Crooked
Clinton is Cruising to Her Coronation. Below, it’s an ill wind and all that.
This Las Vegas Gun Store Is Banking on a Clinton Victory
A ‘Pre-Hillary’ assault rifle sale may be a preview of things to come.
October 17, 2016 — 9:08 PM BST
A Las Vegas gun store, having resigned itself to a Democratic presidential
victory on Nov. 8, has launched a “Pre-Hillary Sale,” sparking a modest media sensation
reaching as far away as New York and Washington, D.C.The store, Westside Armory, bought an ad last weekend in the sports section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal saying, “Don't wait! Prices will skyrocket after Crooked Hillary gets in.” The ad—for a Smith & Wesson AR-15 military-style rifle priced at $699.99—echoes a favorite put-down by Republican nominee Donald Trump of his rival Hillary Clinton. It also picks up on a theme that we’ve reported on in the past: that the gun industry has counted on fear of a Clinton victory to drive firearm sales. The conventional wisdom—proven repeatedly during the Obama administration, especially following gun massacres in Newtown, Conn., and Orlando—is that gun owners who fear Democratic politicians will tighten firearm laws are prone to run out and buy another weapon.
Westside Armory owner Cameron Hopkins
said via e-mail: “I was acutely aware the ad would be controversial, so I had
to be very careful to imply we are not in favor of Hillary winning, even though
we acknowledge the certainty of it.” He also noted the influence of the
National Rifle Association: “As a retail business, we are apolitical except for
the ‘gun issue’ and for that we must follow the candidate(s) and positions
supported by the NRA,” which has endorsed Trump.
Trump has falsely accused Clinton of
seeking to “get rid of all guns” and abolish
the Second Amendment (which only Congress and three-quarters of the states
could do). What she has proposed, among other measures, is reestablishing a ban
on “assault weapons” that could include the type of large-capacity rifle that
Westside Armory put on sale. The Smith & Wesson advertised by the Las Vegas
shop accommodates ammunition magazines containing 30 rounds.
More
At each step of the
transition from commodity to paper to credit, money became more unreal, and
detached from the real goods and services that money can be exchanged for.
Money transformed itself from a mechanism for trade into an object in its own
right. Modern technology—digital money—further stripped money of corporeality.
Money exists as pure information, with no intrinsic value. It is nothing and
everything.
Satyajit Das. Extreme Money. Masters of the
Universe and
the Cult of Risk
At the Comex silver depositories
Tuesday final figures were: Registered 29.28 Moz, Eligible 144.44 Moz,
Total 173.72 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks today. Today an early autumnal look at
the possible Pacific developing La Nina and an early look at the Siberian snow
cover winter signal. Too early for both I know, but both have the potential to
signal a colder snowier winter for Europe and North America.
Surprise! La Nina might be back after all
Monday, October 17th 2016
Buried in the news late last week amid the feverish coverage of Saturday's
upcoming Disappointment Day Storm was word from NOAA that La Nina might be
back.Their Climate Prediction Center reissued a La Nina Watch on Thursday, just a month after killing it off.
Quick recap on what La Nina is: A cooling of the tropical waters in the Central Pacific Ocean. It's part of a 3-7 year cycle where the waters cool, then warm (El Nino) with "neutral" periods in between when the water is near average temperatures.
La Nina was actually the popular choice for this fall and winter when forecasts came out in the summer -- it's a typical progression after El Nino, and especially strong El Ninos like we had last winter.
More
Winter 2016-2017 Siberian Snow Cover Begins To Grow
Snow
Cover in SIberia growing this time of year is not exactly news however it is
October so it is time we look at the Siberian snow cover indicator. Now there
are a few things I want to say about this. First off the indicator’s proponent
Dr Judah Cohen states that the rate of growth of snow cover in Siberia is tied
to cold winters in the east. The faster the rate of growth, the higher the
probability of a cold and snowy winter. This indicator worked well until last
year when it was a major fail given the super strong El Nino that dominated the
pattern all winter long. Also I am not a fan of using one indicator or for that
matter any indicators since there are other factors that will play into what
kind of winter we will have. That said lets look at the snow cover in Siberia
over the past 3 years (including this one) and see what we have if anything so
far. What is important is the rate of growth in areas south of 60 degrees
North.
----
Now we look at October 2016. The growth in the southern flank has been
substantial but this is bit misleading. Take a look at the two maps below. From
October 1st through October 10th there actually has been very little snow cover
growth in the southern flank. In fact there has been very little snowfall at
all in the last 10 days in areas south of 60 degrees north.
----
But it is not where we start the month but where we finish. The GFS model over
the next 10 days for what it is worth shows substantial snow cover growth south
of 60 degrees north through October 20th.
If
the GFS is correct the rate of growth would be rather impressive. Obviously it
has to happen first before snow lovers go leaping for joy. And remember all the
snow cover indicators could point to a cold and snowy winter. But if the trough
is in the wrong position, or if the Greenland Block is non existent, or if any
one of a number of other things are right, the outcome could be much different
than you expect. So far we can come to no conclusions of what we are seeing so
far. Remember it is where we finish the month and not where we are now.
More
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap
AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC?
A quantum computer next?
Abundant silicon at the heart of cheaper renewable energy storage system
Lynda Delacey 18 October 2016A team of researchers from Madrid is developing a thermal energy storage system that uses molten silicon to store up to 10 times more energy than existing thermal storage options. The hope is to develop the technology into a new generation of low-cost solar thermal stations to store solar energy in urban centers.
Storage is the current major challenge faced by renewable energy sources like wind and solar – so if these are to become viable alternatives, drastic improvements to our ability to store surplus energy are required so that cities can draw on that energy at night, and at other times when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing.
Current battery technology just isn't developed enough yet, so researchers across the industry have been exploring a range of new ideas to improve energy storage, including a commercialized solar thermal energy system that stores concentrated heat from the sun in the form of molten salts (potassium/calcium/sodium nitrates etc.), and converts the heat back to electricity via a thermal generator.
Salt-based systems work quite well, but they require complex pumps, pipelines and heat transfer fluids to generate electricity, making them expensive and vulnerable to safety issues. They're also not based on particularly abundant materials – if we scale up the use of these plants, we could find ourselves running low on the elements needed to make these salts within a few decades. That's why researchers worldwide are looking for safer alternatives that use cheaper and more abundant materials.
The silicon-based solution proposed by the team from the Universidad Polytechnic de Madrid (UPM) could be a winner because silicon is one of the world's cheapest and most abundant elements – second only to oxygen.
The proposed new thermal energy storage system involves heating the silicon in a container using either concentrated sunlight on surplus electricity generated by renewable power. The molten silicon – which can reach temperatures of around 1,400° C (2,552° F) – can be isolated from its environment until energy is needed, at which point the heat is converted to electricity. Silicon's unique properties allow it to store more than 1 MWh of energy in a cubic meter – ten times more energy than salts.
The key to making the new system work, according to research leader Alejandro Datas, is the use of thermophotovoltaic cells – a fairly new technology that sees solar panels generating electricity from heat as well as light.
"At such high temperatures, silicon intensely shines in the same way that the Sun does," says Datas. "Thus thermophotovoltaics can be used to convert this incandescent radiation into electricity."
Thermophotovoltaic cells can reach conversion efficiencies of over 50 percent and can produce 100 times more electrical power per unit area than conventional solar cells. Datas says they are key to the system – not least because they can work at extreme temperatures, unlike other generators.
The system certainly sounds like it ticks a lot of boxes: it uses abundant, inexpensive materials, is able to store up to 10 times more energy than existing solutions and is extremely compact and quiet, with no moving parts.
The researchers believe their invention could dramatically reduce the
cost of storing and producing energy in the thermal energy sector. It could
also offer a safe, cost-effective answer to the renewable sector's energy
storage woes, and could be used for heating as well is electricity.
The UPM team is now looking to commercialize the system. Towards that
end, they have founded a business project called SILSTORE and have started
building a laboratory-scale prototype.
http://newatlas.com/cheap-solar-energy-molten-silicon/45833/?utm_source=Gizmag+Subscribers&utm_campaign=267422f4d5-UA-2235360-4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-267422f4d5-90625829The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 18308
+28 Up NASDAQ: 5312 +21 Up. SP500: 2168 +32 Up.
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