Baltic Dry Index. 834 +36 Brent Crude
49.48
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will
winter be?)
'You
just never know. That unpredictability is the great thing about life. You
change. The world changes. You live in a country where we are still blessed
with enormous opportunity. Leave yourself open to the world of possibility. You
have the ambition, you have the smarts and you have the toughness. So, turn the
page on your biography - you have just started a new chapter in your lives.'
Lloyd
Blankfein CEO of Goldman Sachs unintentionally backs Brexit in a US speech to
graduates, mid 2016. Mr. Goldman “Sacks.”
While mainstream media went into
overdrive at the weekend, following the FBI’s tilt into the US presidential
election campaign apparently aimed at damaging Mrs. Clinton, more important yet
under reported news came out of Vienna, where to little surprise in the oil
industry, the OPEC talks held over two days led only to highlight OPEC’s
internal problems. Supposedly OPEC is to
implement some sort of production cap agreement to take effect from this coming
November 30th. That looks about as likely as the FBI having read all
650,000 “new” emails, allegedly found on Mrs. Clinton’s top aid’s estranged husband’s
computer, before America votes on November 8th.
Mr. Goldman says that he likes
uncertainty, well now he’s got it in spades. If Mrs Clinton wins the presidency
but a crime is uncovered in the emails, what then? If The Donald wins the
presidency and a crime isn’t uncovered in the emails, did the FBI just steal the
election from Mrs. Clinton? What then? What if OPEC somehow manages to patch
some sort of deal out by November 30, how high will short covering push the oil
price? What if OPEC fails as usual, and
the free for all in oil production continues, how low does oil fall and how
many US frackers finally get to go under in a new wave of bankruptcies? No word
yet from Mr. Goldman of life’s increasing uncertainties.
“A good politician is
quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.”
H. L. Mencken
OPEC Splits Prevent Deal With Other Producers to Curb Supply
October 29, 2016 — 4:53 PM BST Updated on October 30, 2016 — 12:21 PM GMT
OPEC’s internal disagreements over how to implement oil-supply cuts agreed
to last month prevented a deal to secure the cooperation of other major
suppliers.More than 18 hours of talks over two days in Vienna yielded little more than a promise that the world’s largest oil producers would keep on talking. Discussions will continue in late November, just days before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is supposed to finalize the accord that lifted oil prices to one-year highs.
Non-OPEC nations ended talks with the group on Saturday without making any supply commitments, Brazil’s Oil and Gas Secretary Marcio Felix said after the meeting. Brazil won’t restrict its oil production, though it’s willing as early as next year to host future OPEC conferences with the world’s biggest producers, he said in a phone interview.
Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev said the outcome of the process hinges on Iran and Iraq, two nations that are more interested in increasing production than reducing it. While Saturday’s meeting was a successful “first step,” oil-producing nations need to continue dialog and “come up with real numbers” before cuts can begin, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Energy Minister Magzum Mirzagaliyev said in an interview after the meeting.
A deal wasn’t possible because internal OPEC talks on Friday reached an impasse over the role of Iran and Iraq, both of which want to be exempt from any cuts. While non-member Oman said Saturday it was willing to cooperate in a supply deal, it couldn’t commit to a specific output cut until OPEC had its own agreement.
OPEC’s
surprise agreement in Algiers to make the first supply cuts in eight years will
only make a
serious dent in a record oil surplus if producers outside the group join
in. While the accord helped push oil prices to a 15-month high above $50 a barrel
earlier this month, they have subsequently fallen as several members disputed
the production estimates that would determine the size of cuts. Failure to
implement last month’s accord will hurt oil producers, the organization’s top
official warned.
More
In under reported dying EUSSR news, it
was more of the same. The existing wealth and jobs destroying EUSSR is simply
unreformable. It will eventually collapse from the inside.
Rajoy Masters the Art of Inaction to Win Back Power in Spain
October 31, 2016 — 4:00 AM GMT
Five days before December’s election in Spain, as candidates
criss-crossed the country, the embattled government started up a high-speed
rail link between Zamora and Olmedo in the north of the Castilian plain.
The economics of spending 750 million euros ($820 million) to run a
state-of-the-art train between towns with less than 70,000 inhabitants in total
and no real industry may have been questionable. But for Mariano Rajoy,
fighting to cling to his job as prime minister, the politics proved to be spot
on.
Fortifying his core vote in aging, conservative backwaters like Zamora
with cheap money from the European
Central Bank gave Rajoy a firewall against
the rivals clamoring to oust him as younger, urban voters revolted against
economic turmoil and widespread corruption. Despite historic losses, he held on
to just enough seats to stop the other parties from pushing him out and, 10
months and another election later, clinched a second term in office with a vote
in parliament on Saturday.
For the conservative leader, the Zamora rail link was a natural
extension of the political habits of a lifetime -- keep down when the flack is
flying, don’t rock the boat, and lavish your base with government largesse.
Through the two election campaigns, he insisted his greatest achievement in
government was resolving not to do something: seek a sovereign bailout.
“Rajoy has made the art of inaction into a way to exercise power,” Ivan
Redondo, a political consultant who has advised candidates from both main
parties, said in an interview. “This is an elderly society, in which towns
prevail over big cities, and the transition from a dictatorship was not so many
years ago. So a change of regime is very far from appealing for lots of
people.”
More
We close with Asian markets nervous
about what lies ahead in US politics. Fretting that Wall Street’s “man” may
have cooked her goose. After months of nearly universal demonization of Donald
Trump, is it Halloween time for stocks, without an All Saint’s Day?
Asia stocks shaky as FBI review of Clinton emails rattles markets
Most Asian stocks struggled higher on Monday but investors were rattled by news that the FBI is planning to
review more emails related to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary
Clinton's private server, just a week before the election.
European markets also looked set for a shaky start, with financial spreadbetter CMC Markets expecting
Britain's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX <.GDAXI to all open
down 0.1 percent.
Federal investigators have secured a warrant to examine newly discovered
emails, a source familiar with the matter said on Sunday.
Clinton had opened a recent lead over her unpredictable Republican rival
Donald Trump in national polls, but it had been narrowing even before the email
controversy resurfaced. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday
showed Clinton with a statistically insignificant 1-point national lead.
The Mexican peso, which strengthens along with the chances for a Clinton
win, remained weak, while the U.S. dollar edged up against other major
currencies.
"There seems little doubt that a Trump victory would trigger
selling in stock markets from current levels," Rick Spooner, chief market
analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note.
"This has traders nervous as they start the week assimilating fresh
news on Hillary Clinton’s email problems."
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a
six-week low on Monday before recovering 0.3 percent. It is set to end the
month down 1.6 percent.
Japan's Nikkei, which touched a six-month high on Friday, closed 0.1
percent lower on Monday, but is up 5.9 percent in October.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid to a two-month low but revived to gain 0.2
percent, on track for a 1.35 percent loss in October. China's Shanghai
Composite index fell 0.1 percent, paring gains this month to 3.2 percent.
On Friday, Wall Street and the dollar closed lower, after Federal Bureau
of Investigation Director James Comey sent a
letter to the U.S. Congress informing it that the agency is again reviewing
emails related to the private server Clinton used when she was secretary of
state.
More
At the Comex silver depositories Friday
final figures were: Registered 29.99 Moz, Eligible 143.47 Moz,
Total 173.46 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, when politics trumps objective policy. Two
examples today from both sides of the Atlantic. The BOE’s Governor took sides
in the UK’s Brexit referendum debate and ended up totally compromised and on
the losing side. In America, was the head of the FBI’s hand forced by a FBI NY
City uncompromising investigation that Washington could no longer cover up. Yea
or nay, both parties now look past their sell by date, and lacking credibility
for the new circumstances that have developed.
Oh, what
a tangled web we weave. When first we practise to deceive!
Sir
Walter Scott. Marmion.
Carney’s Future at BOE Overshadows U.K. Interest-Rate Decision
October 31, 2016 — 12:01 AM GMT
Mark Carney’s policy announcement may not be the most important one he makes
this week.With growth holding firm against Brexit and the pound’s plunge stoking fears of a surge in prices, economists say that means a once-planned interest rate cut is off the table on Nov. 3. But the Bank of England governor may also be about to announce how long he will stay in the role, a decision that has ramifications for the stewardship of the economy at a time of unprecedented change.
Over the weekend, multiple newspapers reported that Carney was preparing to leave in 2018 -- sticking to the five years in the role that he said he would do when he was appointed -- or serve a full term through 2021. The BOE declined to comment, saying only that he would declare his intentions by a self-imposed deadline of year-end. Amid the speculation, U.K. Business Secretary Greg Clark backed him on Sunday to stay in the job.
“I think Mark Carney has done a tremendous job, a fantastic job during his tenure,” Clark said on BBC Television. “I was the financial secretary to the Treasury when he was appointed, and I think it was a brilliant appointment.”
Carney, 51, has said any decision on his future would be for personal reasons. It would come at the end of a turbulent year that saw the Canadian central banker become embroiled in the bitter European Union referendum campaign, accused of political bias by some lawmakers and facing calls to resign. He could make an announcement about his term on Thursday, when he will hold a press conference to explain the BOE’s latest policy decision.
More
Clinton Allies Go After Comey as Probe Scrambles Campaign
October 31, 2016 — 4:00 AM GMT Updated on October 31, 2016 — 5:05 AM GMT
Hillary Clinton’s allies dramatically escalated attacks on FBI Director
James Comey in a bid to stem political damage from his disclosure the agency is
reviewing a new batch of files that may be related to an investigation of the
former secretary of state’s e-mail practices.
Harry Reid, the Senate’s top Democrat, delivered an unusual rebuke to
the FBI chief in a letter Sunday that said Comey may have broken the law by
revealing the review so close to the election, and suggesting the agency is
sitting on potentially damaging information about Republican presidential
nominee Donald Trump.
Reid’s scorching letter -- typical of the combative Nevadan’s style --
was one of the most confrontational messages being delivered by Clinton
supporters, who took to talk shows, newspaper opinion pages and social media to
question the propriety of Comey’s disclosure.
Late Sunday, one Democratic member of the House Judiciary
Committee, Steve Cohen of Tennessee, called for Comey’s resignation. Judiciary
is among congressional committees that oversee the FBI, and Cohen is the top
Democrat on a subcommittee with jurisdiction over matters involving ethics in
government.
The new probe led to a weekend of scrambling by both Clinton and Trump
and put the U.S. presidential race in uncharted territory. The two campaigns
responded, for now, by falling back on the familiar. After hitting back at
Comey on Friday and Saturday, Clinton moved on by Sunday to reiterating her
campaign’s themes, leaving the attacks on the FBI director to her proxies.
Trump reinvigorated his assault on Clinton’s trustworthiness and found a new
cue for his crowds to chant “Lock her up” as he ramped up his pace of
campaigning.
More
I'm not going to have some reporters pawing through
our papers. We are the president.
Hillary Clinton. December 1993
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap
AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC?
A quantum computer next?
Borophene Could Trump Graphene in Flexible Electronics Applications
Researchers at Rice University
believe that a special atom-thick born structure called borophene may be a
better alternative to graphene for flexible electronics.
Graphene vs Borophene
For the past few years, many researchers and engineers alike have been looking into materials such as graphene for their strength, flexibility, and conductivity. Graphene has been showing up in the news many times recently for their growing popularity in research including graphene electronic applications, printed graphene in paper electronics, and applications in car batteries.While graphene performs better on flexible devices than other materials such as indium-tin oxide, it may be too flat and difficult to stretch. This is due to the rigid hexagonal structure that graphene forms. But there exists a structure of boron known as “borophene” that may help to overcome the issues graphene has in flexible applications.
Boron Bucky Balls
Back in 2014, a research team led by theoretical physicist Boris Yakobson at Rice University showed that a boron structure (B36) would be highly stable. Photoelectron spectroscopy of B36 showed that the structure was symmetrical, which is crucial for a repeating sheet-like structure.At the same time, researchers also announced the creation of a 40-atom buckyball that consisted entirely of boron. It is these structural properties that make boron real contender in the future of electronics.
Borophene, Silver, and Its Applications
A team of researchers led by Boris at Rice University found that, when borophene is grown on a featureless surface (i.e. atomically flat), it forms a hexagonal structure that resembles graphene. However, if borophene is grown on a silver surface, it forms corrugations (like those found in an accordion) that suggests the borophene is much more flexible in this configuration.But the relationship between borophene and silver is even more surprising because, when the borophene forms the corrugations, the silver reconstructs itself to match the waving pattern.
Once
the borophene is formed, it can easily be removed as the bond between the
silver and borophene is weak. This may allow atom-thick slices of borophene to
be transferred to any substrate once it has been formed with the corrugations.
Once transferred, the borophene should exhibit the same properties as when it
was grown on the silver surface (flexibility, electrical characteristics, etc.)
MoreAnd below, more on turbulent jet ignition system for internal combustion engines.
$2.5m DoE funding for MAHLE Powertrain
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded up to $8.4 millionThe US Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded up to $8.4 million, spread over the next three to four years, to four projects to improve performance levels of engines and powertrain systems for future vehicles. The projects will focus on developing and testing new cost-efficient technologies for engines and powertrain systems which will remove the technical barriers for broad commercial use of advanced engine technologies in the mass market.
MAHLE Powertrain LLC, will receive $2.5 million to develop a next-generation combined ignition/turbo-charging concept known as 'Turbulent Jet Ignition'. TJI facilitates the implementation of ultra lean-burn technology to gasoline engines, improving their efficiency and reducing the formation of pollutants such as nitrogen oxide.
The intent behind the DOE's effort is to ensure that automakers receive support from the government to focus on innovations to meet the latest emissions standards for passenger and commercial vehicles. In August this year, US president Barack Obama announced the first-ever fuel economy regulation for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, including semis, garbage trucks, buses, and three-quarter-tonne pick-ups and vans. In addition, Obama has announced mileage and emission standards suggestions for passenger and light trucks. The new standards would increase fuel economy to 54.5mpg fleet average by 2025--62mpg for cars and 44mpg for light trucks.
Specialists at MAHLE Powertrain have recently been developing a novel
combustion system concept which offers significant fuel economy benefits
without the need for expensive engine hardware.
MAHLE Powertrain’s Turbulent Jet Ignition (TJI) utilises a
spark-initiated pre-chamber combustion process in an otherwise conventional
gasoline engine to achieve fuel economy improvements of up 20% Engine-out NOx
emissions are also virtually reduced to zero levels, negating the need for lean
NOx after-treatment.
Existing jet ignition systems involve the creation of hot gas jets from a
pre-chamber which are then introduced into the cylinder where they rapidly
induce ignition of the main in-cylinder charge. MAHLE’s TJI system is
characterised by auxiliary pre-chamber fuelling, small orifices connecting the
main and pre-chamber combustion cavities and a very small pre-chamber volume.
The smaller orifice size causes turbulence in the hot gas jets which then
penetrate deeper into the main combustion chamber and cause a distributed
ignition effect. This process then allows extension of knock limits and
increased compression ratios (up to 14:1) combined with lower combustion
temperatures and reduced throttling / pumping losses to achieve thermal
efficiencies in the region of 45%.
MAHLE’s TJI unit replaces the conventional spark plug and can utilise
the original PFI or DI fuel system in both naturally aspirated and turbocharged
engines. The conventional engine control system can be retained and the system
can be operated on readily available, commercial fuels. Strong synergies exist
when coupling turbulent jet ignition with engine downsizing at both high and
low engine loads through the use of modern variable valvetrain systems.
The ultra-high efficiency achievable with Turbulent Jet Ignition and the
simplicity of the mechanical hardware and controls systems also offers unique
opportunities to hybrid and range extender vehicle applications.
100 Years of Innovation & Technology
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 18308
+28 Up NASDAQ: 5312 +21 Up. SP500: 2168 +32 Up.
