Wednesday 8 April 2015

Grexit Minus One.



Baltic Dry Index. 583 -05      Brent Crude 58.26

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz

For more on Grexit, scroll down to Crooks Corner.

We open today with the massive bubble in China’s stock market. As ever, this greater fool bubble will end in tears. Welcome to the world of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money in its death throes.

"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."

Richard M. Ebeling

U.S. Dot-Com Bubble Was Nothing Compared to Today’s China Prices

6:01 PM BST April 7, 2015
The world-beating surge in Chinese technology stocks is making the heady days of the dot-com bubble look tame by comparison.

The industry is leading gains in China’s $6.9 trillion stock market, sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits, the most expensive level among global peers. When the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked in March 2000, technology companies in the U.S. had a mean price-to-earnings ratio of 156.

Like the rise of the Internet two decades ago, China’s technology shares are being fueled by a compelling story: the ruling Communist Party is promoting the industry to wean Asia’s biggest economy from its reliance on heavy manufacturing and property development. In an echo of the late 1990s, Chinese stocks are also gaining support from lower interest rates, a boom in initial public offerings and an influx of money from novice investors.

The good news is the technology sector makes up a smaller portion of China’s equity market than it did in the U.S. 15 years ago, limiting the potential fallout from a selloff. The bad news is that any reversal in the industry will saddle individual investors with losses and risk putting an end to the Shanghai Composite Index’s rally to a seven-year high.

“Chinese technology stocks do resemble the dot-com bubble,” Vincent Chan, the Hong Kong-based head of China research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, said in an interview on April 2. “Given stocks fell 50 to 70 percent when that bubble burst in 2000, these small-cap Chinese shares may face big corrections when this one deflates.”

China’s government is boosting spending on science and technology as a faltering industrial sector drags down economic growth to the weakest pace in 25 years. In March, Premier Li Keqiang outlined an “Internet Plus” plan to link web companies with manufacturers. Authorities also plan to give foreign investors access to Shenzhen’s stock market, the hub for technology firms, through an exchange link with Hong Kong.

Among global technology companies with a market value of at least $1 billion, all 50 of the top performers this year are from China. The sector has the highest valuations among 10 industry groups on mainland exchanges after the CSI 300 Technology Index climbed 69 percent in 2015 through Tuesday, more than three times faster than the broader measure.
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Elsewhere in Asia, Abenomics is fading fast. This wasn’t supposed to happen under Abenomics. Nothing anywhere seems to be working anymore. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver held outside of the larcenous reach of John Bull and Uncle Scam. They have form, as the saying goes down at the Yard.

BOJ Keeps Record Stimulus After Inflation Data Drops to Zero

4:43 AM BST April 8, 2015
The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda tries to head off a drop in consumer prices two years after he began unprecedented stimulus in the world’s third-biggest economy.

The central bank maintained a plan to expand the monetary base at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($666 billion), as forecast by all 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Kuroda’s bid to spur 2 percent inflation is facing a test, with the BOJ’s main gauge sinking to zero because of cheaper oil and the weakness in Japan’s recovery from recession. While most economists forecast another boost in stimulus by October, policy makers are confident for now that a virtuous cycle of rising profits, wages and expectations for price gains will lift inflation to their goal.

“The BOJ appears to be confident about the outlook for the economy,” said Junko Nishioka, an economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “It’s unlikely the BOJ will move later this month, even if they have to cut their inflation forecast because of oil.”

The BOJ’s effort to reflate the economy is running into a number of challenges, from steeper-than-forecast declines in retail sales and industrial production to signs that companies aren’t convinced Japan’s economic prospects are looking up.
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In oil news, is there more to this bounce than just squeezing the bears? Does someone know more than the rest of us?

Oil posts best close of 2015 ahead of supply report

Published: Apr 7, 2015 3:18 p.m. ET
NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—The U.S. oil benchmark soared for a second straight session Tuesday to close at its highest level of 2015 a day ahead of weekly data that is expected to show a decline in domestic crude output.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in May CLK5, -1.98%  rose $1.84, or 3.5%, to close at $53.98 a barrel—the highest settlement since Dec. 30. Over the past two sessions, May crude has gained nearly 10%

Brent crude for May delivery LCOK5, -1.42%  on London’s ICE Futures rose 98 cents, or 1.7%, to $59.10 a barrel, contributing to a 7.6% two-day rise.

Bulls “are really running with it right now,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, in a phone interview.

Investors expect crude-oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday to show a second consecutive weekly decline in oil production and for supplies at the Nymex futures delivery hub in Cushing, Okla., to show a drop or only a very small increase, Yawger said.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast total U.S. oil inventories to show a rise of 3.4 million barrels, on average, in the week ended April 3. The EIA report is due at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

Less influential inventories data from the American Petroleum Institute is expected later Wednesday.
Oil data last week showed U.S. oil production fell by a 36,000 barrels a day in the week ended March 27—a small decline but the first since mid-January.

Meanwhile, technical factors are also positive as Nymex oil futures trade within sight of the 2015 intraday high of $54.24 a barrel set on Feb. 3, and the 100-day moving average at $54.95, Yawger said.
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And in America, the wheels are flying off the Great Nixonian Error. The benefits of fiat money were all front loaded. Forty four years on from that August 15, 1971 Camp David error, we are rushing towards the bone crushing end of that fiat money error. The collapse of the fiat currency USSR comes to mind.

15 Years Of Stimulus—–Nothing To Show

by David Stockman • April 7, 2015
At some point 15 years ought to count for something. After all, it does amount to one-seventh of a century. And during that span we have encompassed several business cycles, two financial crises/meltdowns and nearly a non-stop blitz of “extraordinary” policy interventions. To wit, a $700 billion TARP, an $800 billion fiscal stimulus, upwards of $4.0 trillion of money printing and 165 months out of 180 months in which interests rates were being cut or held at rock bottom levels.

You’d think with all that help from Washington that American capitalism would be booming with prosperity. No it’s not. On the measures which count when it comes to sustainable growth and real wealth creation, the trends are slipping backwards—– not leaping higher.

So here’s the tally after another “Jobs Friday”. The number of breadwinner jobs in the US economy is still 2 million below where it was when Bill Clinton still had his hands on matters in the Oval Office. Since then we have had two Presidents boasting about how many millions of jobs the have created and three Fed chairman taking bows for deftly guiding the US economy toward the nirvana of “full employment”.

When you look under the hood its actually worse. These “breadwinner jobs” are important because its the only sector of the payroll employment report where jobs generate enough annual wage income—about $50k—- to actually support a family without public assistance.

Moreover, within the 70 million breadwinner jobs category, the highest paying jobs which add the most to national productivity and growth——goods production—-have slipped backwards even more dramatically. As shown below, there were actually 21% fewer jobs in manufacturing, construction and mining/energy production reported last Friday than existed in early 2000.
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We end for today with Greece.  Will Greece default tomorrow, leave the EUSSR and NATO, and join Russia and China in the SCO?

Russia ready to offer Greeks cash in return for assets

Kremlin could provide cash-strapped Greeks a credit line and discounted energy supplies as Alexis Tsipras meets with Putin

Russia could offer debt-ridden Greece controversial loans and discounts on supplies of natural gas in exchange for the country's "assets", according to reports in Moscow.

Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s prime minister, is due to arrive in the city on Tuesday and will meet Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, on Wednesday.

Athens overtures to Moscow have raised fears the Leftist government is pivoting east in search of alternatives sources of finance as it bids to avoid bankruptcy. Ahead of his visit, Mr Tsipras condemned economic sanctions on Moscow as “a road to nowhere”.

Greece's dalliance with the Kremlin has also attracted criticism for potentially undermining the EU's united front against Russia's military intervention in Ukraine.

Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, said on Saturday that it would be "unacceptable” if Mr Tsipras “jeopardised Europe's common policy on Russia” in return for Kremlin aid.

But Kommersant newspaper quoted an anonymous Russian government source on Tuesday saying that lines of credit were on the table.

“We’re ready to consider the question of providing Greece discounts on gas: the price for it is tied to the cost of oil which has significantly fallen in recent months,” the source said.

“We are also ready to discuss the possibility of granting Greece new loans. But here we, in turn, are interested in reciprocal moves – in particular, in Russia receiving particular assets in Greece.”
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"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F. A. von Hayek

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 63.19 Moz, Eligible 113.49 Moz, Total 176.68 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, Grexit Minus One,(?) the EUSSR, the (German) worker’s paradise. Euros anyone, even those marked with a German “X”?  Will Greece send in the tanks when Germany doesn’t pay?

Greece demands €279bn from Germany in Nazi war reparations

Parliamentary committee puts figure on cost of Second World War occupation and demands investigation into 2010 bail-out

Greece has demanded nearly €279bn in reparations from Germany, more than the value of its current bail-out, as the cash-strapped country continues to pursue compensation for crimes carried out by the Third Reich.

A parliamentary committee established by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras put an official number on the claim, which includes the cost of a forced Nazi loan made by the Bank of Greece and the return of archaeological treasures.

Greece suffered a brutal occupation at the hands of the Third Reich in 1941, with over 40,000 people starving to death in Athens alone.

Previous Greek calculations for the cost of the country's occupation have stood at around €160bn.
Mr Tsipras has called the reparations question a "moral and ethical" issue for his country, repeating his demands during a visit to Berlin last month.

Greek ministers have also touted the idea of seizing German assets in the country to compensate the families of victims of Nazi war crimes.

A poll carried for Greek radio found more than 80pc of Greeks agreed with the pusuit of Nazi war debt claims.

The Germany finance ministry moved quickly to reject the fresh claims. Chancellor Angela Merkel has resisted re-opening old wounds, insisting Berlin has honoured its obligations during a compensatory accord signed in 1960.

In a further sign of the hardened attitudes in the debtor country, Greek lawmakers also voted to establish a committee examining the circumstances of its 2010 bail-out by eurozone creditors and the IMF to the tune of €240bn.

"After five years of parliamentary silence on the major issues that caused the bailout catastrophe, today we commence a procedure that will give answers to the questions concerning the Greek people," Mr Tsipras said to parliamentarians on Tuesday.

Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has claimed the economy was unfairly lumbered with the liabilities that it is now struggling to pay off as its coffers run empty.

Mr Varoufakis has claimed Europe dealt with his country's bankruptcy by "loading the largest loan in human history on the weakest of shoulders - the Greek taxpayer."

A poll carried for Greek radio found more than 80pc of Greeks agreed with the pusuit of Nazi war debt claims.

"Were we to be directed from Washington when to sow and when to reap, we should soon want bread."

Thomas Jefferson

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March

DJIA: +118 Down. NASDAQ: +209 Down. SP500: +161 Down.  

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