“But I don’t want to go among mad people," Tsipras remarked.
"Oh, you can’t help that," said the Troika: "we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad."
"How do you know I’m mad?" said Tsipras.
"You must be," said the Troika, "or you wouldn’t have come here.”
With apologies to Lewis and Alice.
It is yet another “G” day, this time in Riga. By this time on Sunday
will Greece still be in the euro and wealth destroying EUSSR? If not, our
complacent markets are in for the shock of all shocks come Monday’s opening.
Not to worry says Bloomie, Greece can default and still stay in the euro. Bad
news is good news after all! “A chicken in every pot.” I’ll take the other side
of that bet.
“Begin
paying at the beginning," the Troika said, very gravely, "and go on
till you come to the end: then stop.”
With apologies to Lewis and Alice.
Greece Could Default Without Exiting Euro, Say Economists
12:01 AM BST April 24, 2015
A Greek default doesn’t mean the country has to leave the euro area,
economists say.The chances of Greece missing some of its debt payments in the coming weeks are 40 percent, while the probability of an exit from the 19-nation currency bloc stands at 30 percent, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of 29 economists. Almost four in five respondents said a default won’t trigger an exit.
“Although the likelihood of default and Grexit has certainly risen considerably over the past few weeks in both cases, it is wrong to think that one necessarily will follow the other,” said Danae Kyriakopoulou, senior economist at the Center for Economics and Business Research in London. “If liquidity can be maintained even in the case of default then this means that Grexit will not follow default.”
Time for Greece is running out as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras remains at loggerheads with his country’s creditors over reforms needed to unlock funds from the country’s 240 billion-euro ($259 billion) bailout. A meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Riga, targeted as a deadline to wrap up talks only two weeks ago, is now likely to pass without an agreement even as payment deadlines loom.
The European Central Bank increased the pool of emergency liquidity available for Greek banks by about 1.5 billion euros to 75.5 billion euros on Wednesday after the standoff aggravated a deposit flight.
Economists are torn about whether the government will introduce capital controls, with chances ranging from 20 percent to 100 percent, according to the survey. The median probability is 50 percent.
Since striking a deal to extend its bailout program in February, Tsipras’s anti-austerity coalition government has repeatedly expressed confidence that a deal to free bailout disbursements was imminent, only to be rebuffed by euro-area officials seeking concrete steps.
“The Greek government has got to show some backbone in its reform efforts,” European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said on Thursday. “Time is of the essence and it’s really an urgent matter.”
Economists in the survey see the chances of Greece missing some of its debt repayments in the next four to six weeks between 10 percent and 100 percent. The probability range is the same for an exit of the country from the currency region.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/greek-default-without-euro-exit-conceivable-for-most-economists
Tsipras tells Merkel 'Greece has made enough sacrifices for the euro'
Leftist premier reported to have told his German counterpart it is now Europe's responsibility to keep his country in the currency union
Greece's defiant Prime Minister has told Angela Merkel it is Europe's job to do "their part" to keep his crisis-hit country in the eurozone.Meeting on the sidelines of a European Council meeting in Brussels on Thursday, Alexis Tsipras is reported to have told the German Chancellor his debt-addled nation has made enough sacrifices to satisfy the demands of its creditor powers.
The showdown between the two premiers comes as Europe's creditors creep closer to agreeing the terms under which vital bail-out cash can be released to Athens after two months of stalemate.
But hopes of a deal being struck
at a finance ministers meeting in Riga on Friday have been all but dashed as
the two sides remain divided over the Greek government's willingness to
generate enough revenue to meet its election promises to hike the country's
minimum wage and raise pensions for the poorest.
Despite agreeing to hurry up the
negotiations, Mr Tsipras and Ms Merkel are thought to have found no common
ground over the implementation of labour market reforms, pension cuts and tax
hikes from the Leftist government.
Greece will however aim to meet a
budget surplus target of 1.5pc of GDP this year - a target which remains
ambitious in light of the country’s deteriorating economic fundamentals.
The country is widely expected to
slip back into recession in 2015 as economic confidence has been decimated by
its prolonged bail-out stalemate.
----"The Greek government is really scraping the bottom of the financial barrel," said Christel Aranda-Hassel, chief analyst at Credit Suisse, who estimates the country will run out of funds in the next few weeks.
Athens has sought to appeal to Ms Merkel, seen as their sole ally in Europe, to push creditors for a resolution before Greece is due to make a €950m loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund in the first two weeks of May.
"Ms Merkel is their last hope; she sees there is more to Greece and Grexit than just the monetary union, there are geopolitical risks at stake," said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING.
More
Elsewhere, there was bad news too. But in the current Great Disconnect
fuelled by central banksters’ QE and ZIRP, all news is good for stocks and
bonds until one day out of the blue it isn’t. One upon a time in a faraway
land, that once was the envy of the world, deficits didn’t matter either. Then
came Bush Jr., Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Keynesian voodoo priests, “Bubbles”
Greenspan, Bernocchio, and the oddity of today’s talking chair. When the
current Keynesian madness ends, 2007-2009 will look like a children’s picnic.
“Why, sometimes
I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
Bubbles, Bernocchio, and the Talking Chair. With apologies
to Lewis and Alice.
The U.S. Economy Hasn't Disappointed Analysts This Much Since the Great Recession
A morning's worth of disappointing data sent the Economic Surprise Index down further
6:21 PM BST April 23,
2015
Following a quartet of weaker-than-expected economic data reports released
this morning, Bloomberg's U.S. economic surprise index has
fallen to levels seen only during the Great Recession.At -0.783, the 15-year-old index has been this far away from zero in either direction in only two other periods: in early 2009, when it hit a record-low -0.996, and in March 2011, when it climbed as high as 0.950.
That's not to say that the economy's heading into recession. The surprise index measures data relative to economists' projections, so the measure is showing that forecasters were way too optimistic coming into 2015.
This morning, we got news that:
- Initial jobless claims rose to 295,000 in the week through April 18 from 294,000 the week before. The consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg saw a drop to 287,000.
- Markit's monthly survey of purchasing managers in U.S. manufacturing showed a slowdown in activity in its preliminary April data. The headline index fell to 54.2 from 55.7, defying the consensus prediction of an unchanged reading.
- New-home sales sank 11.4 percent in March, while the median economist in our survey expected only a 4.5 percent drop.
- The Kansas City Fed's monthly measure of manufacturing activity fell to -7 in April from -4 in March, missing estimates for an improvement to -2.
----Next
Wednesday, we get the first look at first-quarter GDP figures. Economists
surveyed by Bloomberg expect the net effect of all of these forces slowed
growth to 1 percent at an annualized pace in Q1, down from the 2.2 percent
rate logged in the fourth quarter of 2014.
More
Stocks Vertical, Economy Flat, Outlook Fraught
by David Stockman •
Just
before noon today stocks went vertical, but why not. The HFT machines
were trawling for all time highs and, in fact, hit the ultimate jackpot.
Namely, they finally pushed the NASDAQ above the vertiginous heights
(5132) it achieved back in March 2000 at the peak of the dotcom frenzy:
Notwithstanding the usual “beat”
on its manipulated ex-items profit number, the results were
miserable. Total industrial sales were down by three-quarters of a billion
dollars or 6% from prior year and the internals were worse.
To wit, sales in the Asia-Pacific
region were off by 13% and were down by 12% in its Europe, Latin
American and Middle East region. Within product categories the implications
were even more ominous. While its resource/mining equipment shipments were down
9% from prior year and construction machinery sales were off by 7%,
sales in its single largest segment—–oilfield, power and transportation—-were
flat with Q1 2014. But that’s only because its dealers and
customers are just now commencing what will be a huge cutback in
purchases owing to the global oil industry collapse.
That Caterpillar’s corporate
level results are sliding backwards and heading for worse should not be
surprising. Its dealer retail sales have been heading south for 28
straight months and show no sign of reversing. And since Caterpillar corporate
results are on the whip-end of its plant-wide dealer network, that shrinkage is
now flowing into its sales and earnings, as dealers continue to reduce orders
and destock their inventories.
More
“Would
you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?'
'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,' said the Troika.
'I don't much care where -' said Tsipras.
'Then it doesn't matter which way you go,' said the Troika.
'- so long as I get SOMEWHERE,' Tsipras added as an explanation.
'Oh, you're sure to do that,' said the Troika, 'if you only pay long enough.”
'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,' said the Troika.
'I don't much care where -' said Tsipras.
'Then it doesn't matter which way you go,' said the Troika.
'- so long as I get SOMEWHERE,' Tsipras added as an explanation.
'Oh, you're sure to do that,' said the Troika, 'if you only pay long enough.”
With
apologies to Lewis and Alice.
At the Comex silver
depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 62.64 Moz, Eligible 112.55
Moz, Total 175.19 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today more on the “Hound of Hounslow” who
allegedly, improbably, single handedly took down Wall Street’s finest Great
Vampire Squids. Are US markets really that vulnerable to amateur, allegedly
bent geeks? Something tells me that we are not getting the truth, the whole
truth, and nothing but the whole truth, from the other side of the Atlantic.
What does the NSA know and when did it know it?
Nick Leeson: Wall Street 'flash crash' trader may just be scapegoat
The original rogue trader says it is hard to believe Navinder Singh Sarao was solely responsible for market crash which saw the Dow Jones lose almost 1,000 points within minutes
Nick Leeson, the original rogue
trader who brought down Barings Bank, has described the 'flash crash' trader as
a scapegoat who may not have realised what he was doing.
He said that Navinder Singh Sarao
may well have triggered the devastating
financial crash of 2010 but that the subsequent actions of others would
likely have caused the real impact.
"The story doesn't entirely
ring true for me at the moment," he said.
"It looks maybe that some of
the trades that he initiated were trigger points and they have set in motion a
sequence of events that have led the market to fall so swiftly.
"We are talking about a
young trader operating out of his mum and dad's house in Hounslow and he is
effectively being charged with forcing around the biggest stock market in the
world, and going up against some of the biggest investment banks that
exist."
Mr Sarao faces a maximum sentence
of 380 years in an American jail after being accused of being at the centre of the so-called
'flash crash', which
knocked the major US stock market - the Dow Jones Industrial Average - by
almost 1,000 points during one 45-minute period in May 2010, triggering hundreds of billions
of pounds of losses.
The 36-year-old, who worked as a
day trader from his parents' semi-detached house in Hounslow, West London, is
fighting extradition.
Mr Leeson told LBC Radio: "It just doesn't ring true.
I hate to jump to conclusions, but is he a scapegoat? Did some of the trades
that he inititiated precipitate other, much bigger trades that moved the market
around?
"Or is there something far
more sinister or convoluted that we havent really seen yet?
"It's just very, very
difficult to see how somebody so small has done something so big."
Mr Leeson, who went on the run
after racking up an astonishing £832 million of losses in the mid 1990s, said that in his case, there
were much smaller sums of money involved.
"This has happened so
swiftly, it is just very difficult to condemn the man and think that it was
something that was well thought out and that he intended to do it," he
added.
"For me, it looks like a
timing thing and that some of his trades triggered something far, far bigger in
the market and he is being put in a very difficult position because of that.
"If I was going to try and
guess right at this moment, I think his trades are going to be the trigger, and
maybe thats what the US authorities are focussing on. But I would imagine that
an awful lot of orders came in behind it which made the impact bigger."
More
“Mr Tsipras, here
we must pay as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go
anywhere you must pay twice as fast as that.”
With apologies to Lewis and Alice.
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section.
Updates as they get reported.
Below, a graphene
development that could be huge, and not just with solar power and electric
storage.
New class of 3-D-printed aerogels improve energy storage
April 22, 2015 DOE/Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory
Researchers have made graphene aerogel
microlattices with an engineered architecture via a 3-D printing technique
known as direct ink writing.
A
new type of graphene aerogel will make for better energy storage, sensors,
nanoelectronics, catalysis and separations.
Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory researchers have made graphene aerogel microlattices with an
engineered architecture via a 3D printing technique known as direct ink
writing. The research appears in the April 22 edition of the journal, Nature
Communications.
The 3D printed graphene aerogels
have high surface area, excellent electrical conductivity, are lightweight,
have mechanical stiffness and exhibit supercompressibility (up to 90 percent
compressive strain). In addition, the 3D printed graphene aerogel microlattices
show an order of magnitude improvement over bulk graphene materials and much
better mass transport.
Aerogel is a synthetic porous,
ultralight material derived from a gel, in which the liquid component of the
gel has been replaced with a gas. It is often referred to as "liquid
smoke."
Previous attempts at creating
bulk graphene aerogels produce a largely random pore structure, excluding the
ability to tailor transport and other mechanical properties of the material for
specific applications such as separations, flow batteries and pressure sensors.
"Making graphene aerogels
with tailored macro-architectures for specific applications with a controllable
and scalable assembly method remains a significant challenge that we were able
to tackle," said engineer Marcus Worsley, a co-author of the paper.
"3D printing allows one to intelligently design the pore structure of the
aerogel, permitting control over mass transport (aerogels typically require
high pressure gradients to drive mass transport through them due to small,
tortuous pore structure) and optimization of physical properties, such as
stiffness. This development should open up the design space for using aerogels
in novel and creative applications."
More
Another weekend and another weekend of guessing on Greece. Will Greece
come to its senses and default, devalue, and reform, getting back on the road
to rebuilding Greek prosperity? Will Germany do the decent thing and write off
most of Greece’s unrepayable debt. Most of the 2010 bailout cash went to
bailout brain dead continental banks, after all, leaving the Greeks hopelessly
stuck with unrepayable debt. Neither is likely to happen this weekend. Onwards
and into the coming catastrophe of May. On a better note, it’s time to enjoy Bluebell
season in my part of southeast England. Have a great weekend everyone.
The
rule is, payment tomorrow and payment yesterday-but never payment today.
It must come sometime to payment today, the Troika objected.
No it can't said the Tsipras It's payment every other day. Today isn't any other day, you know”
It must come sometime to payment today, the Troika objected.
No it can't said the Tsipras It's payment every other day. Today isn't any other day, you know”
With
apologies to Lewis and Alice.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: +118 Down. NASDAQ: +209 Down. SP500: +161 Down.
No comments:
Post a Comment