Baltic Dry Index. 993 +50
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
It would be hard to blame you for having
trouble taking much of what is said in Washington seriously. You heard about
the Medicare actuary who was forced to fudge the numbers and lie to Congress to
keep his job. You heard the falsified numbers in Iraq on everything from the
cost of the war to the number of trained Iraqi troops to a slam dunk case for
weapons of mass destruction. You heard about the administration sponsored fake
newscasts to mislead people all across America.
Senator
John Kerry.
The big “news”
this morning is unconfirmed reports that Kiev’s coup government has some of its
troops attacking some of the rebel cities in the east. Time will eventually
reveal the truth, but if true it will likely lead to a Russian response over
the weekend. America’s War Party played with fire by staging a coup to install
a puppet government hostile to Russia in the Ukraine, and now are close to
getting burned. Unfortunately, when this goes wrong, more than just the War
Party are likely to go up in flames.
Pro-Russian rebels say Ukraine launches operation to retake eastern town
By Maria Tsvetkova MOSCOW/DONETSK,
Ukraine
(Reuters) -
Ukrainian forces launched a "large-scale operation" to retake the
eastern town of Slaviansk, pro-Russian separatists holding the town said on
Friday, as security deteriorated in a crisis that has provoked the biggest
confrontation between Russia
and the West since the Cold War.
A Reuters photographer said he saw a military helicopter open fire on the outskirts of the town and a reporter heard gunfire. Separatists said they were under attack and that at least one helicopter had been shot down.
Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, the self-declared mayor or the town, was quoted by Russia's Interfax news agency as saying two helicopters had been shot down and one pilot had been detained. Another had been killed.
Armed groups seeking union with Russia have seized a number of government buildings in towns in eastern Ukraine. The action in Slaviansk, if confirmed, would mark the first significant military response by Kiev.
In Kiev, an aide to Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said he could not comment. "Until it's over, no one will say anything," the aide said.
The apparent assault to retake Slaviansk came only hours after Russia staged a huge May Day parade on Moscow's Red Square on Thursday - its first since the Soviet era - with workers holding banners proclaiming support for President Vladimir Putin after the seizure of territory from neighboring Ukraine.
More
In more certain
Ukraine news, America’s puppet president has reinstated conscription. But why
in the world would anyone want to be conscripted as a cannon fodder pawn into
an American attempt to topple Russia? Is the IMF really ready to fund the
Ukraine’s bottomless pit? Why would countries like Brazil with their own
problems, want to fund the most corrupt country in Europe?
Ukraine to restore conscription after admitting it has lost eastern front
Acting president announces move in response to occupation of power centres by pro-Russian gunmen
Roland Oliphant in Donetsk 6:57PM
BST 01 May 2014
Ukrainian authorities reinstated
conscription in a bid to deal with the deteriorating security situation in the
country.
Oleksandr Turchynov, the acting
president, reintroduced compulsory military service in a decree signed on Thursday,
a day after he admitted that security forces have effectively lost control of
two eastern regions to a pro-Russian rebellion.
The decree cited “the rising
force of armed pro-Russian units and the taking of public administration
buildings... which threaten territorial integrity”.
Former President Viktor
Yanukovych abolished conscription in 2013, as part of a reform aimed at
switching to a professional military.
The announcement came after
pro-Russian demonstrators in Donetsk seized control of the city’s prosecutor’s
office, in the latest of nearly daily occupations of government buildings in
the country’s east.
Rioters fought battles with
police after a traditional May Day march in the city turned violent.
More
Putin Urges Ukraine to Withdraw Troops as Unrest Persists
May 2, 2014 12:05 AM GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Ukraine to withdraw forces from its
easternmost regions as the International Monetary Fund warned that extra
financing may be needed if control of the industrial heartland is lost. In a telephone call yesterday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin also demanded an end to violence gripping cities in southeastern Ukraine, according to a Kremlin statement. The Ukrainian conflict will top the agenda when Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama meet today in Washington, according to White House spokesman Jay Carney.
----In the city of Slovyansk, pro-Russian rebels said they had begun talks to swap international monitors abducted last week, the Interfax news service reported. The militants freed two hostages, though they still have 50 more, including eight from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Vyacheslav Ponomarev, the city’s self-appointed mayor, said he’s in discussions with the government in Kiev to swap the OSCE monitors for his captured allies, according to Interfax. During their call yesterday, Merkel appealed to Putin for help in freeing the observers.
More
Ukraine’s East Unravels as IMF Warns on Financing
May 1, 2014 7:12 PM GMT
Ukraine’s easternmost
regions are slipping from the government’s grasp as separatists take over more
official buildings, with the International
Monetary Fund warning extra financing may be needed if control of the
industrial heartland is lost. Armed men stormed the Donetsk regional prosecutors’ office today, throwing stones and stun grenades. Pro-Russian rebels in nearby Slovyansk said they’d begun talks to swap international monitors abducted last week, the Interfax news service said.
----“The government doesn’t control the situation in Donetsk as well as part of the Donetsk region,” Turchynov said yesterday in Kiev. “Because there is a real threat of Russia starting a continental war, our army is on full combat alert.”
The IMF, which approved a $17 billion bailout for Ukraine early today, said “a significant recalibration of the program” might be required if the situation worsens. The U.S. and the European Union accuse Russia of stoking the turmoil, which has worsened even after they ratcheted up sanctions on Russian interests in the worst confrontation since the Cold War.
Russia says Ukraine’s rulers must listen to complaints in the east and cede powers to the regions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Russian President Vladimir Putin today to help free the detained observers.
With the crisis straining Ukraine’s shrinking economy, the government will get an immediate $3.2 billion disbursement under the IMF program to help it meet the $9 billion in debt payments it’s facing this year. The loan approval unlocks a total of $27 billion in international aid.
Gross domestic product fell 1.1 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter as industrial production and the hryvnia slumped amid deadly protests and Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula. With the currency down 29 percent this year, the government has pledged to stabilize the nation’s accounts
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-01/ukraine-vows-to-stanch-separatism-as-militants-spread.html
In other war news, Japan is practising to fight China. Our 21st century world seems to have gone mad. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver. “Mad dog” America has signed up for this war too.
Japan to conduct island defense drill amid tension with China
TOKYO(Reuters) - Japan will conduct a military exercise this month to practice defending an island, the Defense Ministry said on Thursday, underscoring concern about East China Sea islands controlled by Japan but claimed by China.
The dispute over the islands, called the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, has raised fears of a clash between the Asian neighbors which could even drag in the United States.
Separately, China said on Wednesday it would carry out naval exercises with Russia in the East China Sea in what it called a bid to deepen military cooperation.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/01/us-china-japan-islands-idUSBREA4006U20140501
After bombing in west, China angered by U.S. criticism in terror report
By Michael Martina URUMQI, China
(Reuters) - China's foreign ministry has reacted angrily to U.S. criticism
of the level of cooperation from Beijing on fighting terrorism, after an
apparent suicide bombing in the country's far west pointed to a possible
escalation of unrest there.The Chinese government has blamed religious extremists for carrying out a bomb and knife attack at a train station in Urumqi, regional capital of Xinjiang, on Wednesday evening that killed one bystander and wounded 79.
Security was heavy on Friday in Urumqi, scene of deadly riots five years ago between Muslim Uighurs and ethnic Han Chinese in which almost 200 were killed.
----"China falls victim of terrorism, and always firmly opposes terrorism in any form and terrorist acts conducted or backed by any person under any name," the foreign ministry said in a statement late on Thursday.
Beijing is unhappy at the U.S. State Department's 2013 country reports on terrorism, published last month, which said China's cooperation on fighting terrorism "remained marginal" and that the Chinese provided scarce evidence to prove terrorist involvement in incidents in Xinjiang.
"On the issue of fighting terrorism, to make irresponsible remarks towards other countries and adopting double standards will not help international cooperation on counter-terrorism," The foreign ministry said.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/02/us-china-xinjiang-idUSBREA4102L20140502
We end for the weekend, hoping that war doesn’t break out, and with Reuters covering next month’s World Cup tournament in Brazil. If attending be prepared for high prices, say Reuters. Even higher prices if war breaks out, I think.
World Cup tourists face sky-high prices in Brazil
By Walter
Brandimarte RIO DEIRO
(Reuters) - Tourists visiting Brazil
for the World Cup are advised to pack a bathing suit, sunscreen, and a whole
lot of cash.Home to some of the world's most expensive restaurants and hotels, and with some prices rising more as the opening match approaches, Brazil will shock those visitors whose idea of a tropical paradise is paying $1 for a beachside beer.
Instead, Brazil is often the land of the $10 caipirinha (the sugar cane-based local drink of choice), the $100 risotto and the $1,000-a-night hotel room, prices fueled by many of the same imbalances and government policies that have restrained economic growth in recent years.
Even by European and U.S. standards, prices for basic items are often staggering.
In Sao Paulo, a bustling business hub that is surrounded by some of the country's largest coffee farms, an espresso often costs twice as much as in Lisbon, says Paulo Duarte, a pharmaceutical consultant who splits time between both cities.
----High prices are nothing new in Brazil. The country has a long history of economic instability and runaway inflation, which topped 2,400 percent a year as recently as 1993.
Inflation these days is much more manageable, running at about 6 percent a year, though that is still high by international standards. Sao Paulo, for example, is the most expensive city in the Americas and the 19th most expensive in the world, ahead of New York and London, according to a recent survey by the Mercer consulting firm. Rio is among the world's 30 most expensive cities.
One reason prices are so steep is because the cost of doing business is so high, thanks to a mind-boggling mix of taxes, import tariffs, bureaucracy and poor infrastructure that can make Brazil a difficult place to operate.
Economists have a name for that: "Custo Brasil," or "Brazil Cost." It can make goods manufactured 30 percent more expensive than those produced abroad, according to a study by the industry federation of Rio de Janeiro.
Making matters worse, production costs have climbed in recent years with rising wages and energy prices, while government policies aimed at bolstering household consumption have driven up prices at the cash register.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/30/us-brazil-worldcup-prices-idUSKBN0DG1HO20140430
The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side of the hill.
Duke
of Wellington.
At the Comex
silver depositories Thursday
final figures were: Registered 54.80 Moz, Eligible 119.51 Moz, Total 174.31 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, Bloomberg covers renewed muddle and confusion in the Temple of Mammon. After “Bubbles” Greenspan, came Bernocchio, the Fed Chairman who never saw the crisis coming according to him, now we have the talking Chair that seems to be reading from Edward Lear’s nonsense poems rather than rational economic policy. Under the Chair Yellen, very little dust accumulates, for she seems to sweep in a new interpretation of reality every time she speaks.
"When I
use a word," Humpty Yellen said, in
rather a scornful tone, "it means
just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
With apologies to Lewis Carroll.
Yellen’s Fed Resigned to Diminished Growth Expectations
May 2, 2014 5:01 AM GMT
Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen and her colleagues have lowered their sights on how fast the economy
needs to expand to meet their goal of cutting unemployment.
No longer are they saying growth
must accelerate from the 2 percent to 2.5 percent pace it has generally
averaged since the recession ended. Instead, they are stressing the importance
of preventing the expansion from faltering.
Exhibit number one: the Fed chief
herself. Yellen said on April 16 that a key question facing the central bank is
what “may be pushing the recovery off track.” Contrast that with her comments
on March 4, 2013, of the importance of seeing “a convincing pickup in growth.”
The central bank on April 30
pushed ahead with its plan to gradually wind down its asset-purchase program in
spite of news earlier in the day that growth ground to a virtual halt in the
first quarter. Saying the economy is rebounding, the Federal Open Market
Committee voted unanimously to reduce its bond purchases by another $10 billion
a month, to $45 billion.
“Monetary policy has become very
passive compared to where it was before,” said Neal Soss, chief economist at
Credit Suisse Group AG in New York and a one-time assistant to former Fed
Chairman Paul Volcker.
Most FOMC participants forecast
gross domestic product growth of 2.8 percent to 3 percent this year and 3
percent to 3.2 percent in 2015, according to projections released March 19.
----The reduced expectations for the economy also mean the Fed will be more inclined to raise its benchmark interest rate if growth comes in stronger than the central bank’s forecast, said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro LP in Washington.
Investors are looking for officials to begin increasing rates in the second half of next year, according to trading in the federal funds futures market in Chicago. Perli said a rise could come earlier if the economy performs better than the Fed currently expects.
More
The sinews
of war are five - men, money, materials, maintenance (food) and morale.
Ernest
Hemingway.
Further reading for those with the time this weekend.
Why The War Party Is Playing With Fire: Much Of Putin’s Military-Industrial Complex Is In Eastern Ukraine!
by Contributor •
The view from the other side.
Another weekend, with war again looming in Europe. If it happens, it
will go down as the first European war of the 21st century. This
being the nuclear armed 21st century, it is all too likely to also go
down as the last European war of the 21st century. Have a great
spring weekend.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: +189 Down. NASDAQ: +347 Down. SP500: +249 Down. Sell in May, go away.
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