Baltic Dry Index. 967 +05
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."
Antony C. Sutton
Get ready
for a new recession, especially starting in Europe, probably as early as this
summer. Starting later today, thanks to Uncle Sam’s botched coup in the Ukraine
and Russia’s reaction, the west is to announce new sanctions on Russia, giving
Russia less reason not to encourage parts of eastern and southern Ukraine to
secede. Making Russia more likely to
retaliate against EU interests. With little at stake compared to continental
Europe, the UK Foreign Secretary boldly asserted yesterday, that any economic
disruption to Europe was a price worth paying. With youth unemployment in parts
of Club Med already over 50 percent, I have my doubts that many Europeans will
agree.
Below, the
latest developments in Washington’s ill-conceived attempt to install a pro-NATO
puppet government in Kiev. With each new round of sanctions Russia has less and
less reason for restraint. Ironically, in the long run sanctions might
even be good for the Russian economy. Forcing the rise of a local economy less
dependent on energy exports to the west, and bringing in internal efficiencies,
and reducing corruption. But war seems
more likely to erupt first.
Asian Stocks Fall Third Day as Russia Faces New Sanctions
Apr 28, 2014 4:33 AM GMT
Asian stocks
fell for a third day, with the regional benchmark index heading for a two-week
low, as investors weigh corporate earnings and prospects Russia will be
subject to new sanctions as tensions over Ukraine intensify.
----The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent to 137.68 as of 12:30 p.m. in Tokyo, with seven of 10 industry groups falling. The gauge dropped 0.7 percent last week after Chinese manufacturing data signaled persisting weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. The U.S. and European Union will impose new sanctions on Russia as soon as today as the crisis in Ukraine escalates amid the detention of international observers by pro-Russian separatists.
“We expect the market to consolidate in the next couple of months,” Audrey Goh, Singapore-based investment strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, said by phone. “The Ukraine crisis will cause volatility in the market. Softening earnings is another area of concern for investors.
Representatives of the 28 European Union
nations will meet today to widen a list of people subject to asset freezes and
travel bans, an official from the bloc said over the weekend. The sanctions
will target 15 Russians in positions of power, another diplomat said. Both
asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
More
U.S. Plans to Hit Putin Inner Circle With New Sanctions
Apr 27, 2014 11:00 PM GMT
The U.S. and European Union will impose new sanctions as early as today on
Russian companies and individuals close to President Vladimir
Putin over the escalating crisis in
Ukraine, officials said. “We will be looking to designate people who are in his inner circle, who have a significant impact on the Russian economy,” Deputy White House National Security Adviser Tony Blinken said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program yesterday. “We’ll be looking to designate companies that they and other inner-circle people control. We’ll be looking at taking steps as well with regard to high-technology exports to their defense industry. All of this together is going to have an impact.”
The seizure of international inspectors by pro-Russian separatists last week added pressure to a confrontation made urgent by Russian military exercises on Ukraine’s frontiers. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization says 40,000 Russian troops are near the border. Ukraine’s southern air-defense forces are in “operational readiness,” the country’s defense ministry said yesterday on its website.
More
Brent Rises With WTI as Further Sanctions on Russia Threatened
Apr 28, 2014 6:27 AM GMT
Brent rebounded from its biggest loss in almost three weeks as the U.S. said
it will impose more sanctions on Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, as the Ukraine
crisis escalates. West Texas Intermediate rose. Futures in London advanced as much as 0.3 percent. The U.S. and European Union will announce new sanctions as early as today on Russian companies and individuals close to President Vladimir Putin, officials said. Among those that may be targeted are Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of OAO Rosneft, the country’s biggest oil producer, people familiar with developments said.
“Oil prices are going to be higher this week because of pressures linked to the situation around Russia and Ukraine,” said Robin Mills, the head of consulting at Manaar Energy Consulting and Project Management. “There’s a general concern in markets about the situation.”
Brent for June settlement climbed as much as 29 cents to $109.87 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $109.80 at 1:18 p.m. Singapore time. The contract closed at $109.58 on April 25, down 0.7 percent, the biggest decline since April 7.
WTI for June delivery rose as much as 50 cents to $101.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark crude was at a discount of $8.76 to Brent. It ended the April 25 session at $8.98, the widest based on closing prices in six weeks. The volume of all futures traded was about 13 percent above the 100-day average.
More
William Hague: Britain willing to 'pay price' for further sanctions on Russia
Pledge from Britain over Kremlin's Ukraine meddling comes as gunmen parade kidnapped European observers and 'agents' before TV cameras
By Colin Freeman, agencies 1:23PM
BST 27 Apr 2014
William Hague has said that
Britain was prepared to "pay the price" of further sanctions against
Russia, as he revealed details of new measures due to be imposed on Monday.
The Foreign Secretary said that a
fresh round of sanctions against Moscow over its meddling in Ukraine would
probably involve adding names to an existing list of Kremlin figures already
facing asset freezes and travel bans.
But "more far reaching
measures" are also being lined up in the event that Russia begins a formal
annexation of eastern Ukraine, as it did with Crimea last month.
Such sanctions would most likely involve
hitting sections of the Russian economy such as energy and banking, and might
impact the ability of Russian business to invest in the City of London.
He spoke as pro-Russian insurgents freed
one of the eight European military observers being held prisoner in eastern
Ukraine.
----Both the British Treasury and the European Commission has spent much of the past month analysing the potential fall-out of imposing further sanctions on Moscow.
With large amounts of Russian
investment in European economy, introducing restrictions on Russian banks or
investment houses could cause serious damage to the financial sectors of many
European nations, including Britain.
Cyprus, where Russian money makes
up around a third of the investment into its offshore banking sector, is
particularly vulnerable, especially given its financial meltdown last year.
Much of mainland Europe is also
heavily dependent on Russian gas imports, which the Kremlin could choose to
massively hike the price of as a revenge measure.
More
EU courts Moldova with visa-free travel from Monday
BRUSSELS(Reuters) - Moldovan citizens will no longer require visas to travel to most of the European Union from Monday, as the bloc presses ahead with deeper ties with east European nations in defiance of Russia.
Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine are all seeking tighter links with the European Union as part of Eastern Partnerships with the bloc, which allow for closer trade and business ties without full EU membership.
In response to the Ukraine crisis, the European Union has said it will accelerate the partnerships and from Monday, all citizens of Moldova with a biometric passport can travel visa-free to Europe's Schengen zone, the European Commission said on Sunday in a statement.
The Schengen zone includes most EU countries and some non-members such as Norway and Switzerland.
Ukraine's quest for EU ties triggered the current crisis in relations with Moscow, dividing the nation between those seeking to look West and those wanting to stay in Moscow's orbit.
Following Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in March, NATO has cited Moldova's disputed Transdniestria region as a possible next target.
----All EU countries apart from Britain and Ireland are either members of the Schengen area or - in the case of Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus and Romania - legally bound to join.
A spokesman for Britain's Home Office said London had no plans to allow visa-free travel to Moldovans visiting Britain, and was not bound by the Schengen decision.
More
Up next, sanctions
seem all too likely to sink German shipping and banking, and thankfully the UK’s
spineless pro-Europe right or wrong Liberal Democrats. With the vote for the EU
“Parliament” now just a month away, any impact of sanctions in continental
Europe is likely to produce a very ugly far right result. Uncle Sam’s botched
coup couldn’t have been more ill-timed or ill thought out.
"Were we to be directed from Washington when to sow and when to reap, we should soon want bread."
Thomas Jefferson
German Ship Captain Swamped in Debt Underscores Bank Risk
Apr 27,
2014 11:03 PM GMT
Reederei Heinrich, a 149-year-old German shipping company, risks losing two
of its three vessels unless it repays loans as financial stress in the industry
spreads to banks facing a European Central Bank review. The company, established near Hamburg, Germany’s biggest port, has endured misfortunes such as the death of a family member struck by anchor chains and ships that ran aground. Now General Manager Jens Robrahn says he’s concerned that HSH Nordbank AG may call in 22 million euros ($30 million) of outstanding debt and seize two boats acting as security.
----Robrahn and HSH Nordbank, the world’s largest maritime lender, declined to provide further details.
As it tries to clean up the region’s banks, the ECB is taking a closer look at whether they need more capital to absorb possible losses on loans like Robrahn’s. Shipping loans are among the riskiest assets on banks’ balance sheets and among those most prone to misstatement, an ECB spokeswoman said. German lenders including Hamburg-based HSH Nordbank, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Norddeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale controlled about one-third of the $475 billion global ship-finance market at the end of 2012, according to Swen Metzler, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service in Frankfurt.
The three lenders set aside more than 3.6 billion euros in provisions for bad shipping debt in the past three years after dozens of firms in Germany’s 1,543-container-ship market, the world’s biggest, were hurt as overcapacity and an economic slump pushed down cargo prices the most since the 1970s.
----HSH Nordbank reported 9 billion euros of bad shipping debt, or about 43 percent of its loans to the industry, in fourth-quarter earnings published April 10. Nonperforming shipping loans at Commerzbank, Germany’s second-biggest bank, amounted to about 3.9 billion euros at the end of 2013, or 27 percent of its lending to the maritime industry, according to the company.
----HSH, Commerzbank and Hanover-based NordLB, the third-biggest shipping lender in Germany, are among European banks that don’t disclose restructured loans in their financial statements. Spokesmen for the banks declined to provide information when contacted by Bloomberg News.
More
LibDems told to expect to lose all MEPs in Euro elections 'bloodbath'
Senior Liberal Democrats have privately been warned that the party could be left with no MEPs after next month’s European Parliament elections, The Daily Telegraph can disclose
Senior Liberal Democrats have
privately been warned that the party could be left with no MEPs after next
month’s European Parliament elections.
Senior party figures were warned
that the party’s electoral unpopularity meant that the party was facing seeing
its 11 MEPs lose all their seats.
The warning came at a meeting of
the party's hierarchy including Lord Ashdown, the former party leader who is
coordinating the party’s election campaign.
Numbered briefing documents were
handed out at the meeting, which warned that no MEPs after the election was now
a realistic option.
The party looks set to do much
worse than in the same polls in 2009, when it was left with 11 MEPs and won
2.1million votes or 14 per cent of the vote.
One insider told The Daily
Telegraph “it is looking like an absolute bloodbath”.
Party sources are warning of a
“cratering” of support across the country, with the vote in the East Midlands,
for example, forecast to fall from 130,000 to 13,000.
The informal forecasts echo
polling which consistently puts the LibDems in a distant fourth behind the UK
Independence Party, Labour and the Conservatives.
More
"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."
F. A. von Hayek
At the Comex
silver depositories Friday
final figures were: Registered 53.23 Moz, Eligible 122.86 Moz, Total 176.09 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, Europe on the cusp of ditching the unloved Germanic euro for the Italian lire euro later in the weak, pun intended. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver. Thanks to the hatred between Wannabe Churchill Prime Minister Blair and his dour Scots Chancellor of the Exchequer “no Capability” Brown, Brown blocked the UK from joining the Euro so Blair couldn’t go on to try to become European President. By such petty things did the UK escape the great euro disaster, and the EU saved from a Blairite nightmare.
"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."William F. Rickenbacker
Draghi Awaits Pivotal Price Data That Could Spur Action
Apr
28, 2014 12:01 AM GMT
The most-radical policy decision of Mario Draghi’s
2 1/2 years so far at the helm of the European
Central Bank could hinge on a single piece of data. A weak inflation reading on April 30 will probably see the ECB president facing calls to act as soon as next week by imposing negative interest rates for the first time or pushing forward with plans for quantitative easing. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey predict consumer prices rose 0.8 percent this month from a year ago, compared with 0.5 percent in March.
A lower-than-forecast number would undermine the ECB’s view that inflation should rebound as temporary distortions pass and the economy recovers. Draghi has been increasingly explicit about what might prompt action if it doesn’t, saying that broad-based asset purchases are possible should the medium-term outlook for prices worsen.
“If inflation doesn’t pick up from last month, then it’s game over for wait-and-see,” said Richard Barwell, senior economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “I expect prices to recover from last month and the ECB to play for time if they can.”
Estimates for April inflation range from 0.7 percent to 0.9 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey of 37 economists. Price gains have been below 1 percent since October, compared with the ECB’s goal of just under 2 percent, and March’s figure was the weakest in more than four years.
Should this week’s data miss estimates, the ECB is more likely to cut interest rates, according to Credit Agricole CIB. The benchmark main refinancing rate has been at a record-low 0.25 percent since November and the deposit rate at zero since July 2012.
“If April inflation undershoots expectations, it would strengthen the case for early ECB action in May,” said Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Credit Agricole in Paris. “The first step would be a cut in the refi rate and possibly a liquidity-easing measure. For QE, inflation needs to remain stable without rebounding.”
Other indicators this week include confidence surveys tomorrow and unemployment on May 2. The picture is likely to be mixed. Economic confidence climbed to the strongest since July 2011, while the jobless rate held near a record high at 11.9 percent, according to separate Bloomberg surveys.
More
Be patient Mr. Draghi, once the war starts you will have all the inflation you can handle and more.
"Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible - forms which only the precious metals provide."
Elgin Groseclose
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: +197 Down. NASDAQ: +357 Up. SP500: +254 Down.
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