Baltic Dry Index. 939 +09
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Mankind must put an end to war before war
puts an end to mankind.
John F. Kennedy.
From London
this morning, it looks like America, China and Russia are all preparing for
war. America v Russia over the Ukraine, with continental Europe the likely
loser. China v Japan and America, with Japan the likely loser, as Washington
isn’t prepared to swap Los Angeles for Shanghai. Madness and blood lust seems
to be loose in the world once again. On the historic principle that there never
was a weapon invented that wasn’t later used, our world 2014 is now in great
danger. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver held outside of the UK
and USA.
Below, the
latest media conditioning in the US led march to World War Three.
Every gun that is made, every warship
launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those
who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
Dwight Eisenhower.
Pentagon deploying troops to thwart Russia
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is
sending about 600 troops to Eastern Europe in response to Russia's incursion
into Ukraine, Rear Adm. John Kirby announced Tuesday.
The first contingent of 150
soldiers from the Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade, based in Italy,
will arrive in Poland on Wednesday to conduct infantry exercises. Another 450
soldiers will be deployed to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for similar duty.
The American forces will be replaced to ensure a continual presence in the
region.
"Russia's aggression in
Ukraine has renewed our resolve to strengthening NATO's defense plans and
capabilities, and to demonstrate our continued commitment to collective defense
in reinforcing our NATO allies in Central and Eastern Europe," Kirby told
reporters at the Pentagon.
The move drew measured praise
from Rep. Buck McKeon, a California Republican and chairman of the House Armed
Services Committee.
"This as a small step in the
right direction," McKeon said. "By rearranging U.S. forces already
deployed in Europe, the president is doing something, however incremental, to
reassure our allies. It might have more deterrent value if he included the
Ukrainian military in the exercises. It remains to be seen if this move of 600
troops comes in time to make an impression on the tens of thousands of Russian
troops on Ukraine's borders."
----The presence of U.S. soldiers raises the stakes for Russia in Poland and the other countries if it moves against them militarily. Wounding or killing an American soldier there could risk a major war.
There are about 67,000 U.S.
troops in Europe and 12,000 civilians, according to U.S. European Command. The
Cold War peak was 400,000 troops, in 1955 and it dropped to about 100,000
several years ago.
More
Tactical advantage: Russian military shows off impressive new gear
Tanks-to-troops modernization
By Rowan Scarborough
The Washington Times
Elite Russian troops are displaying a new arsenal of body armor, individual
weapons, armor-piercing ammunition and collar radios — a menu of essential gear
that gives them a big tactical advantage against a lesser-equipped Ukrainian
army.If President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion, the new-generation body armor, in particular, would provide exceptional protection against small arms if Russian troops go street by street to capture Kiev and other cities
“What we saw and what was dangled in front of the West was a clear indication that Putin is on a roll,” retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Robert Scales said. “It just seems to me from watching the films that their arrows are pointing up and ours are sadly pointing down.”
Weapons specialists such as Gen. Scales have been studying images of Spetsnaz, Russia’s ubiquitous special forces, and airborne troops since they conquered the Crimea region and mobilized to strike eastern Ukraine.
What they see are the fruits of a modernization plan begun in 2008, not just in tanks and vehicles but all the way down to the individual warrior. Russia now has the world’s third-highest defense budget, at over $70 billion.
More
Russia risks further US sanctions over Ukraine, says Kerry
23 April 2014 Last updated at 07:20
The US Secretary of State has warned of further sanctions
on Russia if it does not de-escalate tensions in Ukraine.
In a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, John Kerry expressed "deep concern over the lack of positive Russian steps".
Russia blames Kiev's leaders for the collapse of last week's Geneva accord.
Ukraine's acting president earlier ordered the relaunch of military operations against pro-Russian militants in the east of the country.
It came as President Oleksandr Turchynov said two men - including local politician Vladimir Rybak - had been found dead after being "brutally tortured".
"The terrorists who effectively took the whole Donetsk region hostage have now gone too far," he said.
More
Ukraine crisis: Biden says Russia must 'start acting'
22 April 2014 Last updated at 17:22
US Vice-President Joe Biden has said Russia must
"stop talking and start acting" to defuse the Ukraine crisis.
He was speaking after meeting interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Kiev. Mr Biden warned Russia that further "provocative behaviour" would lead to "greater isolation" and urged Moscow to end its alleged support for pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine.
Separately, a Ukrainian military plane was hit by small arms fire over eastern Ukraine, the defence ministry says.
The aircraft suffered minor damage
over Sloviansk, which is held by pro-Russian militants, when it was targeted by
automatic gunfire, according to the ministry. No-one was hurt and the plane
returned safely to Kiev.
-----The Antonov An-30 aerial survey plane was carrying out surveillance at the time.
The funerals have meanwhile taken place of three men shot on Sunday during a raid on a checkpoint manned by pro-Russian separatists near Sloviansk.
The local separatists said the attack was carried out by ultra-nationalist Right Sector militants but Kiev called it a "provocation" staged by Russian special forces.
The bodies of those killed lay in open coffins at the funeral ceremony at the Church of the Holy Spirit in the centre of Sloviansk.
More
Ukraine president calls for new anti-rebel offensive as crisis deal falters
By Alastair
Macdonald and Darya Korsunskaya
KIEV/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Ukraine's acting president Oleksander Turchinov called on Tuesday for government forces to relaunch an offensive against pro-Russian rebels after a local politician from his own party was found dead with signs of torture.
Kiev's first push failed last week to retake one of the towns in the mainly Russian-speaking east occupied by the separatists, and its military has largely suspended operations since the United States, Russia, Ukraine and European Union signed a deal in Geneva last week intended to calm the crisis.
But the agreement is already in trouble, with Washington and Moscow putting the onus on each other on Tuesday to ensure that it is implemented, including a stipulation that the rebels must disarm and leave the government buildings they have occupied.
In an appeal that may complicate European efforts to mediate the crisis, Turchinov said two "brutally tortured" bodies had been found near Slaviansk, the objective of the failed Ukrainian army offensive. One was that of Volodymyr Rybak, a member of Turchinov's Batkivshchyna party, who had recently been abducted by "terrorists", he said in a statement.
"These crimes are being carried out with the full support and indulgence of the Russian Federation," he said. "I call on the security agencies to relaunch and carry out effective anti-terrorist measures, with the aim of protecting Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine from terrorists."
Police said the body of a man who had suffered a violent death had been found in a river. It resembled Rybak, a local councilor in the town of Horlivka, near the regional capital of Donetsk, but formal identification would need further work, they added.
Batkivshchyna is led by Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister who is running in a presidential election scheduled for May 25.
Ukraine's poorly resourced forces had previously shown little sign of taking on the gunmen who started occupying towns and public buildings two weeks ago. Turchinov's call may not lead to much more action but could fuel recriminations between Moscow and Kiev about who is failing to honor the deal.
More
China Defies Obama’s Slow Asia Pivot With Rapid Military Buildup
Apr 23, 2014 1:00 AM GMT
President Barack Obama’s trip to Asia
this week will be dominated by a country he’s not even visiting: China. Each of the four nations on the president’s itinerary is involved in territorial disputes with an increasingly assertive China. And years of military spending gains have boosted the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army faster than many defense analysts expected, casting a shadow over relations between China and its neighbors and sparking doubts about long-term prospects for the U.S. presence in the Pacific.
“There are growing concerns about what China is up to in the maritime space,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “There’s a widely held view in the region that the U.S.-China relationship is tipping toward being much more confrontational.”
Obama arrives today in Japan, the start of a weeklong journey that also will take him to South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. On display throughout will be the challenge of managing the uneasy relationship with China, the U.S.’s No. 2 trading partner and an emerging rival for global influence.
----Danny Russel, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, in February labeled China’s claim to almost all of the South China Sea, hundreds of miles from its shoreline, as “inconsistent with international law.”
Admiral Harry Harris, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, told an Australian audience on April 9: “I am concerned by the aggressive growth of the Chinese military, their lack of transparency, and a pattern of increasingly assertive behavior in the region.”
The statements signaled mounting U.S. alarm following China’s establishment in November of an “air defense identification zone” in the East China Sea, which overlapped with Japanese and South Korean airspace.
More
Staying with China for now, from a Chinese perspective, there
never was a better time to confront Japan and its backer Uncle Sam. With both the
Chinese and Japanese economies wobbling, there’s nothing like a foreign
escapade to shore up the public. Nationalist madness now stalks the planet. As
in 1914, it will all be local, limited, and a walk in the park.
China Manufacturing Gauge Signals Economic Weakness
Apr 23, 2014 5:16 AM GMT
China’s
economy has yet to respond to policy makers’ stimulus efforts, an April
manufacturing gauge indicated today, helping send the yuan to a 16-month low. The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was 48.3 in April, matching the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The reading rose from March’s final figure of 48 while remaining below the expansion-contraction dividing line of 50.
----The report followed data last week showing China’s expansion moderated to the slowest pace in six quarters.
“We do not believe that this
uptick in the HSBC PMI signals any sort of turning point for the economy and
continue to believe that growth momentum is on a downtrend,” Zhang Zhiwei,
chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong, said in a note
today. He reiterated his forecast for a broader reserve-ratio cut for banks in
May or June.
Estimates of today’s number from
25 analysts ranged from 47.5 to 49.4
More
Chinese Bad-Loan Ratio Rises ‘Significantly,’ Huarong Says
Apr 22, 2014 7:59 AM GMT
China’s
bad-loan ratio rose “significantly” in the first quarter, increasing risks for
the nation’s banking industry, according to the nation’s largest manager of
soured debt. The business environment this year has been “grim and complicated” as lenders face pressures on asset quality, liquidity and lending margins, China Huarong Asset Management Co. Chairman Lai Xiaomin said during an internal meeting on April 15, according to a statement today on the website of the Beijing-based company.
China’s slowing economy has made it tougher for borrowers to repay debt, driving up banks’ sour loans for a ninth straight quarter as of December to the highest level since 2008, data from the banking regulator show. New nonperforming loans amounted to more than 60 billion yuan ($9.6 billion) in the first two months of this year, compared with 100 billion yuan for all of 2013, China Business News reported on April 9, citing people it didn’t identify.
More
In European news,
is there such a thing as an honest banker? Meanwhile Europe prepares to commit
continental suicide and gets ready for a gas war with Russia. The trouble is,
the imported LNG to replace Russian gas costs more. How high does Europe’s
unemployment have to get before America declares victory over Europe?
Thankfully I don’t use any gas. In a crisis the UK and Europe could always go
back to cheap imports of coal for electricity, although probably not until
after the price of gas and electricity soared, generating public discontent. An
interesting summer lies ahead.
A good politician is quite as unthinkable
as an honest bankster.
With
apologies to H. L. Mencken and burglars everywhere.
Deutsche Bank Bribery May Prompt Scrutiny, Lawyers Say
Apr 22, 2014 7:25 PM GMT
A former Deutsche Bank (DBK) AG
salesman’s admission in a Japanese court that he bribed a pension fund
executive with lavish entertainment could attract the attention of prosecutors
in other countries. The U.S. Department of Justice and other authorities may examine whether the practice was widespread at the bank and led to any violations of bribery laws after Shigeru Echigo testified that he acted on the instructions and encouragement of his management, U.S. and U.K. lawyers not involved in the case said.
Prosecutors say the former salesman spent about 900,000 yen ($8,800) on meals and golf outings with former Mitsui & Co. employee Yutaka Tsurisawa 15 times from April to September 2012. Echigo admitted to the charges at the start of his trial in Tokyo yesterday.
“The worry for Deutsche Bank is that Echigo’s testimony could cause DOJ to take a hard look at the bank’s relationships with Japanese government officials to find out if the same things are taking place,” said Roger A. Burlingame, a former U.S. federal prosecutor now based in London at Kobre & Kim LLP.
Deutsche Bank, based in Frankfurt, is probably already having discussions about the case with prosecutors in other jurisdictions, said Neil Swift, a criminal defense lawyer at Peters & Peters Solicitors LLP in London. The U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and U.K. Bribery Act encourage companies to self-report potential violations and doing that can reduce any penalties.
----Echigo entertained Tsurisawa in return for buying 1 billion yen of investment products for Mitsui’s retirement fund, and to procure future business, prosecutors said. Tsurisawa was convicted last month and given a suspended 18-month prison sentence.
Information about the case may
already have been shared by Japanese prosecutors with their counterparts in
other countries where Deutsche Bank does business, the lawyers said.
More
Europe braces for gas showdown with Russia, helped by Japan's nuclear restart
European regulators and power companies are battening down the hatches in case the crisis escalates
The Western powers are scrambling
to bolster defences against a halt in Russian gas supplies after the Kremlin
tightened the energy noose on Ukraine, and paramilitary actions in eastern
Ukraine increased the risk of a full-blown sanctions war.
The Geneva deal reached last week
to defuse the crisis is close to disintegration, with the US government openly
accusing Russia of carrying out covert operations across the Donbass region.
US Vice-President Joe Biden
warned that Russia will pay a very high price unless the Kremlin withdraws
troops massing on the Ukrainian border. “We will not allow this to become an
open-ended process. Time is short,” he said in Kiev.
Two key US senators have already
called for sanctions on large Russian banks, mining companies and energy
groups, including the state gas monopoly Gazprom. Any such move would freeze
gas deliveries to the EU, since few European banks would risk defying US
regulators by handling Gazprom transactions.
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s
premier, accused the Americans of “pure bluff”, challenging the US to show its
teeth. “You can, of course, continue to expand the 'black list’: it will lead
absolutely nowhere,” he told the Duma.
Stepping up pressure on Ukraine,
he said Kiev would now have to pay for its energy supplies on the nail. “It’s
gas for cash,” he said. Failure to pay would cut off half of Russia’s gas
supply to Europe, since it flows through Ukraine’s pipeline.
European regulators and power
companies are battening down the hatches in case the crisis escalates. Gas
flows from Britain to Europe through the UK’s Interconnector pipeline have soared
over the past three weeks to almost 10bn cubic metres (bcm), a sign that
countries are boosting reserves even though stocks are high. “Utilities have
contingency plans,” said an Interconnector official.
---- The flows follow fresh deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar to the UK’s South Hook terminal in Wales. Total inventories of LNG in Europe have jumped by more than 20pc since late March, despite the high cost.
Brussels is drafting a blueprint for the end of next month on how to cut reliance on Russian energy, working in concert with experts from each country.
The EU has already adapted its gas pipelines so that they can flow backwards to Poland and Hungary. Slovakia is likely to follow soon.
Europe is in a strong position to withstand a gas shock. Inventories are unusually high at 36bcm after a mild winter. Seasonal demand is low over coming months. Stocks are enough to plug the gap through the summer even if there is a total cut-off.
More
There was never a good war, or a bad
peace.
Benjamin Franklin.
At the Comex
silver depositories Tuesday
final figures were: Registered 53.40 Moz, Eligible 123.26 Moz, Total 176.66 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks today, today we cover South Africa and the world’s longest forgotten strike. How long can our modern world remain cut off from about 40 percent of its platinum supply? Few thought any South African strike could last this long, but with the global economy slowing, and platinum prices under pressure, is there any room to reach a compromise?
SA platinum talks resume in bid to end 3-month strike
By: Reuters
22nd April 2014
JOHANNESBURG - Chief executives
of the world's top platinum producers were to again meet the leaders of the
AMCU union on Tuesday for wage talks in a bid to find an agreement to end the
longest and most costly strike on South Africa's mines in living memory.
"They will be meeting this
morning but at an undisclosed location," said a spokeswoman for the
producers.
Around 70 000 members of the
hardline Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) downed tools
13 weeks ago at Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin .
Initially demanding an immediate
doubling of the basic wage - the salary before various allowances are added
such as housing - for entry-level workers to R12 500 ($1 200) a month, AMCU has
since said it would accept annual increases of around 30% that would reach this
goal in three years' time.
The producers' latest offer, made
last Thursday, was for wage hikes of up to 10% and other increases which would
take the minimum pay package - the basic wage including the allowances - to R12
500 rand a month by July 2017.
"That is as much as we can
reasonably afford at this time," Implats spokesman Johan Theron
told Reuters.
The companies have been
struggling to maintain margins in the face of steeply rising costs on one hand
and stubbornly depressed prices on the other for the precious metal used to build
emissions-capping catalytic converters in automobiles.
Tuesday's talks were being
facilitated by the country's department of labour but there has been little
political intervention to resolve the dispute even though it is a headache for
President Jacob Zuma and the ruling ANC with a general election looming
May 7.
Exacerbating the industry's woes
is the muted price reaction to the stoppage despite its scale, with around 40%
of global platinum production idled at the moment, according to estimates by
Thomson Reuters' GFMS.
Traders have bet there are
adequate above-ground stocks and demand remains far from robust in key markets
such as Europe, where diesel engines which require high platinum content in
converters are favoured.
More
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/sa-platinum-firms-lift-wage-offer-to-10-2014-04-22
There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged
warfare.
Sun Tzu
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: +197 Down. NASDAQ: +357 Up. SP500: +254 Down.
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