Baltic Dry Index. 1091 -05
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
The
first four days of the voyage passed without incident, but shortly after
11:40 pm on 14 April Smith was informed by First Officer William Murdoch
that the ship had just collided with an iceberg. It was soon apparent that the
ship was seriously damaged; designer Thomas Andrews
reported that five of her watertight compartments had been breached and that Titanic
would sink in under two hours.
Does history repeat? Stick around for a few
more weeks, we are about to find out if 2014 mirrors 1929. Though I fully
expect trouble ahead in 2014, in my opinion “pattern matching” works until it
doesn’t. Using modern computer power, it’s easy to line up many so called pattern
matches between different commodities and stocks. The one below at least
compares like with like. But if you were the head of the Fed’s NY team of riggers and fixits, able to intervene with unlimited resources, and able to tip-off whatever cronies are flavour of the month to start front running, and you had just spent the last five years building a new stock bubble, would you allow this pattern to match for much longer? The Chair that talks testimony yesterday may have already blown the pattern match away. The Fed’s final bubble is to continue, the Chair said. There’s an old maxim on Wall Street, “never fight the Chair.”
Feb. 11, 2014, 6:30 a.m. EST
Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
Opinion: If market follows the same script, trouble lies directly ahead
By Mark Hulbert,
MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) —
There are eerie parallels between the stock market’s recent behavior and how it
behaved right before the 1929 crash.
That at least is the conclusion
reached by a frightening chart that has been making the rounds on Wall Street.
The chart superimposes the market’s recent performance on top of a plot of its
gyrations in 1928 and 1929.
The picture isn’t pretty. And
it’s not as easy as you might think to wriggle out from underneath the bearish
significance of this chart.
More
The Fed, 100 percent owned by Wall Street since 1987, doffed its cap to Wall Street’s Great Vampire Squids and Banksters yesterday, declaring bubbles away and QE Forever, forever. Like the failed policy of deficits don’t matter until suddenly they do, QE Forever, forever, won’t matter until one day out of the blue it does. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver. When the Fedster’s final bubble bursts, it’s curtains for the Great Nixonian Error of the fiat money, dollar reserve standard.
The
dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.
US
Treasury Secretary John Connally. 1971
Feb. 11, 2014, 5:04 p.m. EST
U.S. stocks extend 4-day winning streak
Nasdaq turns positive for 2014
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks extended their four-day
winning streak, ending Tuesday with solid gains as Federal Reserve Chairwoman
Janet Yellen pledged to keep interest rates low and to continue to taper the
pace of bond purchases if the economy keeps improving.
The
S&P 500 index SPX +1.11% closed
up 19.91 points, or 1.1% at 1,819.75, its best gain over four straight days
since Dec. 23, 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
+1.22% closed
up 192.98 points, or 1.2%, at 15,994.77 after briefly topping 16,000. The 3.6%
gain over the past four days was the best four-day streak since June 8, 2012.
The Nasdaq
Composite COMP
+1.03% ended
the day 42.87 points, or 1%, higher at 4,191.04. The tech-heavy index turned
positive for 2014 and is now up 0.3% so far this year. Read the recap of our stock market live blog.
Yellen said the Fed will continue to follow its
low-interest-rate policy course during a hearing before the House Financial
Services Committee. “Let me emphasize that I expect a great deal of continuity
in the Federal Open Market Committee’s approach to monetary policy,” she said.
On
Thursday, she will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Follow live blog of Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress.
“The
fact that Yellen will continue with tapering gives investors confidence that
the weather issues are transitory and problems in the emerging markets are not
big enough to drag the U.S. toward a recession,” said Phil Orlando, chief
equity market strategist at Federated Investors.
More
Yellen just added pressure on emerging markets
Published: Tuesday, 11 Feb 2014 |
5:14 PM ET
----While she did recognize in her comments that the global economy is
interlinked with U.S. fortunes, she made it clear that the U.S. economy is the
Fed's primary mandate. And, she said that she doesn't believe that global
issues pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economy though she stated the Fed is
"monitoring" the situation closely. The net impact of her comments on emerging markets is that the current crisis remains intact regarding asset flows from developing economies.
If the Fed intends to continue tapering its bond buying (ultimately leading at some point to higher interest rates despite the 10-year Treasury lately dropping to 2.7 percent), this means that asset flows will continue to move out of emerging markets toward higher-yielding assets and economies that provide better visibility in terms of economic stability
More
On the other
side of the Atlantic, the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street was out unspinning
its previous version of “forward guidance.” Ignore what we said, we were only
joking. We will not put up interest rates just because unemployment has fallen
to our earlier guidance target. Who knew unemployment was going to fall,
certainly not us. On QE and ZIRP, it’s forever. Abandoning ZIRP triggers the
crisis voodoo QE and ZIRP were started to prevent. Besides, haven’t you heard
about the Great Thames Valley flood.
Below, once
upon a time in a land not very far away, a Canadian ex-Goldmanite got a very big
job and a very big surprise when UK unemployment fell. Those lazy, good for
nothing idle Brits would take jobs and work after all! Who knew.
Mark Carney warns economy is not strong enough to support interest rate rise
Bank of England to present latest growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts, but Governor will stress that the economy will not withstand a rate increase
Britain's economy is still too
weak for the Bank
of England to risk any interest rate rise in the near future, its
Governor Mark Carney has warned.
Mr Carney is to present the
Bank’s latest growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts, but will stress
that the economy will not withstand a rate increase, which would trigger a rise
in mortgage repayments for millions of borrowers.
Britons have grown increasingly
nervous about the Bank’s policies on interest rates amid brighter economic
news. Rates have been held at historic lows for almost five years.
Mr Carney will also unveil the
second stage of the “forward guidance” policy, which pledged to keep rates on
hold until the jobless rate fell below at least 7 per cent, but has lost
credibility in the face of rapidly falling unemployment.
Economists said the Bank was
likely to move towards a broader range of measures. “The nice thing for Carney
is that he has a 'good problem’ in that growth is more rapid than expected and
the unemployment rate has fallen faster,” said Nick Beecroft, the chairman of Saxo
Capital Markets. “I think we’ll just see a tweak in forward guidance.”
More
In Asia,
another day another red flag in China’s always dodgy statistics. Never mind the
dodgy statistics, buy more!
Crisis?
What crisis?
Captain Edward John Smith R.D.
R.N.R. RMS Titanic, with apologies to “Sunny”
Jim Callaghan.
China Trade Growth Defies Signs of Slowdown
Feb 12, 2014 6:00 AM GMT
China’s export and import growth unexpectedly
accelerated in January, defying signs the world’s second-largest economy will
slow while fueling speculation that fake shipments are resurfacing. Overseas shipments rose 10.6 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said today in Beijing, a pace that may be distorted by false invoices and holidays and compares with the median projection of economists for a 0.1 percent gain. Imports (CNFRIMPY) advanced 10 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $31.9 billion, the widest for January since 2009.
The trade report added to skepticism over the quality of China’s economic data after a crackdown by authorities last year on the use of inflated export invoices to disguise capital inflows. Asian stocks extended gains and the Australian dollar jumped as the report provided some evidence of support for an economy that’s projected by analysts to grow at its slowest pace in 24 years in 2014.
“This should make markets more relaxed
about both global demand and demand in China’s own economy,” Louis Kuijs,
chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong, said in
a note today. “However, we are also left with a nagging feeling that perhaps
issues such as over-invoicing have risen sharply in intensity early this year.”
More
Record tumble in Japan machinery orders casts doubt on Abenomics
By Tetsushi
Kajimoto TOKYO
(Reuters) - Japan's core machinery orders suffered a steep drop in December
and companies expect more declines in the January-March quarter, a worrying sign
for capital spending seen as key to cementing a recovery in the world's
third-largest economy.The 15.7 percent decline in orders, a leading indicator of capital expenditure, was much worse than a projected 4.1 percent decline and was the largest since comparable data available from 2005.
Companies surveyed by the Cabinet Office forecast that core orders, which is a highly volatile data series, will fall 2.9 percent in January-March, which would be the first drop in four quarters.
The data could fuel skepticism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reflationary policies, known as "Abenomics", which has combined a massive injection of fiscal and monetary expansionary to pull the economy out of a decades-long slump.
A central plan of Abenomics is to spur capital spending to create a virtuous cycle of job creation, higher wages and consumer spending.
----The weak orders data raises doubts that a freeze in business investment is thawing, which would hurt efforts to conquer 15 years of persistent deflation and foster sustained growth..
Capital spending has been anemic for years, with Japanese firms hesitant to boost investment on plants and equipment, because of a deep-rooted view that Japan would remain mired in deflation and sustained economic recovery is far from assured.
More
We end for
today with yet more news of man-made global warming.
There is an air of unreality in debating
these arcane points when the world is changing in such dramatic ways right in
front of our eyes because of global warming.
Al Gore.
Winter Storm Warning Issued; Accumulation ‘Could Be Biggest Of The Season’
UPDATED:
Feb. 11, 2014 12:11 p.m.
LANHAM, Md. (CBSDC) — A major winter storm is
expected to barrel up the East Coast mid-week, bringing a potentially
significant snowfall to the already winter weary Washington region.
The powerful Nor’easter will blow
into the mid-Atlantic region sometime after dark Wednesday is forecast to dump
between 6 inches and a foot of snow on the area before blowing north Thursday
afternoon.
“There’s even a chance of more
than a foot, especially just north and west of the District,” meteorologist
Bill Deger said.
WUSA 9 meteorologist Topper Shutt
also believes the storm has the potential to be a monster.
“This could be the biggest storm
of the season,” said Shutt.
More
Ice Expert Predicts Lake Superior Will Completely Freeze Over This Winter
February 11, 2014 - 3:22 PM
(CNSNews.com)
– Lake Superior hasn’t completely frozen over in two decades.
But an expert on Great Lakes ice says there’s a “very high likelihood” that
the three-quadrillion-gallon lake will soon be totally covered with ice thanks
to this winter’s record-breaking cold.The ice cover on the largest freshwater lake in the world hit a 20-year record of 91 percent on Feb. 5, 1994.
Jay Austin, associate professor at the Large Lakes Observatory in Duluth, Minn., told CNSNews.com that he expects that record will be broken this winter when the most northern of the Great Lakes becomes totally shrouded in ice.
more
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/ice-expert-predicts-lake-superior-will-completely-freeze-over#sthash.Nme14j1f.dpuf
Historic Ice Storm Unfolds in South; Lengthy Power Outages Possible
By Brian Lada, Meteorologist February 11, 2014; 9:29 PM
With a major winter storm unfolding over the South, snow and ice will severely impact travelers and residents from Texas to the Carolinas through midweek.The event could be the worst ice storm for parts of the South in more than 10 years.
One batch of snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain affected the South Monday into Tuesday.
Nearly 650 flights have been canceled at Atlanta International Airport alone as of Tuesday afternoon.
Another batch of snow and ice will hit many of the same areas spanning Tuesday night into Wednesday night, including parts of Texas, Arkansas, northern Louisiana and central and northern Mississippi.
More
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/ice-storm-begins-to-unfold-in/23186487
At the Comex
silver depositories Tuesday
final figures were: Registered 50.73 Moz, Eligible 131.83 Moz, Total 182.56 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Below NASA take inspiration from second marriages.
The triumph of hope over experience. The headlines “one giant leap” seems more
like one aspirational micro step to me. There's
many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip.
“The
best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men,
Gang aft agley.
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!
Gang aft agley.
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!
Robert
Burns, To a Mouse.
Nasa takes one giant leap towards mining minerals from the moon
Feb, 11 2014
In a giant leap that seems to have come straight from the world of
science fiction, Nasa today began accepting applications from private companies
who want to launch mining operations on the moon.
As part of a scheme that was unveiled in late January, the US space
agency is inviting offers from potential business partners to help design and build
lunar prospecting robots, the first major step required to explore Earth’s
natural satellite for valuable resources.
Nasa has been forced to set up the Lunar Cargo Transportation and
Landing by Soft Touchdown programme (Catalyst) on a skeleton budget, because
the US government has refused to provide any funding.
That sets it apart from the agency’s deals with other private companies
to deliver supplies to the International Space Station – which are backed by
public coffers.
If you have a novel idea on the best way to scour the moon for minerals,
and a few billion pounds going spare, Nasa is accepting proposals from today
until 17 March, 2014, according to reports from The Verge.
Jason Crusan, director of Nasa's advanced exploration systems, told the
AFP news agency mining the moon was far from just the stuff of fantasy.
He said recent missions had already revealed evidence of water and other
substances of interest on the moon’s surface. “But to understand the extent and
accessibility of these resources, we need to reach the surface and explore up
close,” he said.
“Commercial lunar landing capabilities could help prospect for and
utilize these resources,“ he added, which could allow for both commercial and
research activities.
“As Nasa pursues an ambitious plan for humans to explore an asteroid and
Mars, US industry will create opportunities for Nasa to advance new
technologies on the moon,” said Greg Williams, a top Nasa official.
Scientists still face a rocky road ahead before they can realise the
dream of mining in space, however. A Harvard research paper published just last
month suggested that the vast majority of near-Earth asteroids would be
unsuitable for mining on a commercial scale.
And the question of who actually owns the moon – and therefore the
profits from mining it – remains unresolved. With China and the US already in
conflict over the former’s attempts to land a rover on the moon, we could yet
see the world involved in a lunar land-grab in years to come.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January.
DJIA: +202 Down. NASDAQ: +330 Up. SP500: +249 Up. The new Fed bubble continues, but seems to be running out
of momentum. Does the Final Fed Bubble end in an emerging market crash?
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