2014 – The Future.

Baltic Dry Index. 2277 +30 (Dec. 24)

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all. "

Henri Poincare

Tis the last day of year 2013, and time to foresee the future. Of course no one can foresee the future, least of all me or our corrupt central banksters who have never yet foreseen a recession, or for that matter a crisis, or even an inflation.

That said, here are my predictions for 2014. (The next LIR will be on Friday.)

"In economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."

J. K. Galbraith

The great currency war triggered by Japan will go seriously wrong as “Abenomics” backfires.

France, Italy and Spain will all separately create a crisis for the EU, leading to the breakup of the EMU in its present form. A new core Germanic EMU will be the result. The snake bit wealth destroying EU will go on destroying European wealth at an ever faster pace. Germany will slide into a EU wide recession. Bulgarian and Romanian economic migrants will flood Europe and the UK.

Brent crude oil will end the year below $80, if a “no nukes” deal with Iran is accomplished, above $120 if it isn’t and new sanctions are imposed on Iran. $80 will do little to boost the global economy. $120 dollar oil will reverse the Fed’s announced QE taper.

China will hit its first real economic crisis since the cultural revolution of the murderous days of Mao, as the shadow banking system collapses in a tsunami of corruption and fraud. Officially, China will still hit its growth targets.

The China v Japan war over the Diaoyu Islands will result in a clash/skirmish.

Argentina will default again.

Australia, Brazil, India, Turkey and South Africa will all undergo economic reversals from a pause in the great commodity super cycle.

The Islamic terrorist war against modernity, progress, Christian values and the west will intensify and spread further across Africa and into parts of Europe.

Obamacare will fail to deliver as promised, generating a new war over the spoils of the 2014 mid-term elections in America. America’s energy advantage over the rest of the world from “fracking”  will start to diminish, as all the low hanging fruit are plucked, and fracking oil well decline accelerates. America will find it impossible to pull out of Afghanistan.

New market rigging scandals will roil markets from America to Asia.

Global cooling will continue, and Europe will accelerate its retreat from “Green energy” subsidies.

The new 21^st century super-material graphene will again fail to deliver in 2014. 2017 onwards is a different story.

Gold will continue to flow from west to east generating a delivery crisis in the London Bullion Market Association. Gold will finish the year above $2,000 a troy ounce as the fiat currency race to the bottom intensifies.

Social unrest will intensify.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

Nils Bohr,

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 51.21 Moz, Eligible 122.11 Moz, Total 173.33 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks today just a little light relief from yester year. Have a happy, healthy and prosperous 2014 everyone.

The Exploding Oregon Whale
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtVSzU20ZGk

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. "

Lao Tzu                         

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November:

DJIA: +190 Up. NASDAQ: +281 Up. SP500: +232 Up. The Fed’s final bubble continues to grow, until QE Forever isn’t forever. Up will remain up, until one fine day out of the blue the Fed finally loses control, or the next Lehman hits.