Friday, 7 June 2013

The Lawless Age.



Baltic Dry Index. 806 +05

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“Someone must have slandered Josef K., for one morning, without having done anything truly wrong, he was arrested.”

Franz Kafka. The Trial.

For more on our new lawless age scroll down to “NSA taps in to internet giants' systems to mine user data, secret files reveal,” and to Crooks Corner. The big brother state and the return of torture. Where the USA goes today, the rest of the world usually follows, and the USA is becoming the new USSR.

We open though, with Japan and Abenomics already misfiring badly. Now the largest buyer of Japan’s sovereign debt by far, is to scale back its JGB weighting in favour of foreign and domestic stocks. Unless the BOJ picks up the gap, JGB interest rates must rise blowing up Japanese stocks in the process. But if the BOJ does fill the gap by massive money printing, the Yen will competitively devalue against all comers. 
One way or another, Kyle Bass’s bearishness on Japan is about to pay off. Whether the hapless Japanese realise it or not, they’ve just joined the list of nations needing physical gold to protect them from their government. From London it looks rather like the BOJ has lost control.

"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."

William F. Rickenbacker

Japan public pension cuts JGB weighting, lifts allocation to stocks

TOKYO, June 7 | Fri Jun 7, 2013 7:17am BST
(Reuters) - Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world's largest public pension fund with more than $1 trillion of assets, said on Friday it would lift its weighting in foreign and domestic stocks while cutting its target allocation for Japanese government bonds.

GPIF, which has been reviewing its investment model, said it would raise its target allocation for Japanese stocks to 12 percent from 11 percent previously, while lowering its yen bond weighting to 60 percent from 67 percent.

Asian Stocks Drop as Yen Surge Weighs on Japanese Shares

By Yoshiaki Nohara - Jun 7, 2013 5:27 AM GMT
Asian equities fell, with the regional benchmark index poised for the largest weekly drop in a year, as the yen’s biggest surge in three years weighed on Japanese shares and investors awaited a U.S. jobs report.
Japan’s Topix index slid 2.9 percent with all but two of the 33 industry groups on the gauge falling. Newcrest
Mining Ltd. slumped 7.9 percent as Australia’s biggest gold producer said it will write down the value of its mines by as much as A$6 billion ($5.7 billion). Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets 47 percent of its revenue in North America, dropped 4.5 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7 percent to 130.36 as of 1:19 p.m. in Tokyo, with five stocks declining for every two that rose. Japanese shares have slumped this week after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe failed to impress investors in a speech outlining his growth strategy.

----Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) lost 1.3 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex Index slid less than 0.2 percent and Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 0.3 percent.

The Topix has fallen 8.5 percent this week and about 18 percent from its May 22 high. It’s still up about 21 percent this year amid unprecedented monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. The central bank is to announce its next policy decision on June 11.
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Pimco Not Ready to Buy JGBs as Japan Inflation Expectations Rise

By Mariko Ishikawa & Shigeki Nozawa - Jun 7, 2013 6:06 AM GMT
Pacific Investment Management Co. isn’t ready to increase holdings of Japanese government bonds as the nation’s policy makers seek to overcome deflation.

“There’s no need to be in a hurry to buy JGBs at the moment,” with 10-year yields around 0.8 to 0.9 percent, Tomoya Masanao, head of portfolio management for Japan at Pimco, the operator of the world’s biggest bond fund, said in an interview in Tokyo. “I used to think the chance of 2 percent inflation in Japan was close to zero, but now, while the likelihood of that is not high, it’s certainly higher than before.
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Aso Says Japan Won’t Intervene in Market After Surge in Yen

By Mayumi Otsuma - Jun 7, 2013 4:00 AM GMT
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the government won’t intervene in the currency market for now after the yen strengthened by the most in three years against the dollar.

“We are carefully watching, but we don’t have any immediate intention of taking any action, such as intervention,” the finance minister told reporters in Tokyo today. The yen jumped 0.5 percent to 96.49 per dollar as of 11:38 a.m. local time.

Japan’s currency surged 2.2 percent yesterday, adding to the headwinds of a slide in stocks and volatility in bonds as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe campaigns to revive the world’s third-biggest economy. As attention turns to a Bank of Japan meeting on June 10-11, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s actions may be limited by his pledge to avoid “incremental” steps after announcing a plan to double the monetary base over two years
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In Europe, the German economy wobbles even though exports are soaring, and the China Panda gets ready to savage “haughty” Europeans. We Brits know exactly how the Chinese feel. Still best not to bring up Hong Kong and the opium wars.  With the 500 year flood ravaging much of Germany and Central Europe, and the Chinese Panda about to ravage European exports, Germany’s wobble looks likely to get much more complicated. And then there’s Japan setting out to steal everyone’s export markets.  Euros anyone, even if marked with the German “X”.

"In the long run, the gold price has to go up in relation to paper money. There is no other way.”

Nicholas L. Deak

German Factory Orders Fall; Economy Struggles to Recover

By Jeff Black - Jun 6, 2013 11:48 AM GMT
German factory orders (GRIORTMM) fell more than economists predicted in April as Europe’s largest economy struggled to gain strength.

Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, decreased 2.3 percent from March, when they increased a revised 2.3 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 1 percent drop, according to the median of 39 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. In the year, workday-adjusted orders fell 0.4 percent.

----The German economy grew only 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year, less than economists anticipated. The Bundesbank will release new forecasts tomorrow. In December, the Frankfurt-based central bank predicted growth of 0.4 percent this year and 1.9 percent for 2014.
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China fuels trade row with attack on 'haughty' Europeans

The official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party has attacked the European Union, lashing out at the “haughty attitudes of certain Europeans” and warning that China still had “plenty of cards” to play in an increasingly acrimonious trade dispute.

“China does not want a trade war, but trade protectionism cannot but bring about a counter-attack,” warned an editorial in the People’s Daily newspaper, whose opinion pages often reflect government thinking.

The newspaper’s attack came two days after the EU Commission announced it would begin charging duties on solar panels imported from China.

Hefty tariffs of up to 48 per cent will be placed on subsidised Chinese solar panels, Karel De Gucht, the EU’s trade commissioner, announced on Tuesday.

“The ball is now in China's court,” Mr De Gucht told reporters, claiming that the Chinese imports threated as many as 25,000 European jobs.

Chinese trade officials hit back almost immediately, threatening on Wednesday to introduce “anti-dumping” levies on wine imports from the EU.

A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce told the China Daily the investigation into EU wine imports was not a “retaliatory measure" and insisted the dispute could “be solved through negotiation.”
China’s state-run media took a less diplomatic line. “We have set the table for talks, [but] there are still plenty of cards we can play,” warned the People’s Daily.

“Times change and power rises and falls. Still this has not changed the deep-rooted, haughty attitudes of certain Europeans,” it added.

The EU also took a bashing in the state-run English language China Daily newspaper. It warned that China would act to “safeguard its major economic interests – and it has ample cards in hand to do so”.
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We end for the week with more on our new lawless era. While banksters and great vampire squids run amok and have crashed the casino, the US government runs amok, trashing centuries of hard won freedoms. Be very afraid. In our new lawless age, no one is safe from big brother. Even Senators and Congressmen are fair game. Link the NSA to the IRS and tap the phones of journalists in the not so free press, in the land of the increasingly unfree,  and pretty soon it’s starting to look like a US clone of the old “evil empire,” the USSR. Who’s on the government’s enemies list to be rounded up at the first sign of discontent? Christians objecting to homosexual marriage and abortion? Gun owners?  Those that oppose GM foods?  Those sceptical of global warning? Those who contribute to opposition political parties?  [Your choice here.]

"The information acquired does not include the content of any communications or the name of any subscriber. It relates exclusively to call details, such as a telephone number or the length of a telephone call."

But such metadata can provide authorities with vast knowledge about a caller's identity. Particularly when cross-checked against other public records, the metadata can reveal someone's name, address, driver's licence, credit history, social security number and more. Government analysts would be able to work out whether the relationship between two people was ongoing, occasional or a one-off.

NSA taps in to internet giants' systems to mine user data, secret files reveal

• Top secret PRISM program claims direct access to servers of firms including Google, Facebook and Apple
• Companies deny any knowledge of program in operation since 2007
  and    The Guardian,

The National Security Agency has obtained direct access to the systems of Google, Facebook, Apple and other US internet giants, according to a top secret document obtained by the Guardian.

The NSA access is part of a previously undisclosed program called PRISM, which allows officials to collect material including search history, the content of emails, file transfers and live chats, the document says.

The Guardian has verified the authenticity of the document, a 41-slide PowerPoint presentation – classified as top secret with no distribution to foreign allies – which was apparently used to train intelligence operatives on the capabilities of the program. The document claims "collection directly from the servers" of major US service providers.

Although the presentation claims the program is run with the assistance of the companies, all those who responded to a Guardian request for comment on Thursday denied knowledge of any such program.

In a statement, Google said: "Google cares deeply about the security of our users' data. We disclose user data to government in accordance with the law, and we review all such requests carefully. From time to time, people allege that we have created a government 'back door' into our systems, but Google does not have a back door for the government to access private user data."

Several senior tech executives insisted that they had no knowledge of PRISM or of any similar scheme. They said they would never have been involved in such a program. "If they are doing this, they are doing it without our knowledge," one said.

An Apple spokesman said it had "never heard" of PRISM.

The NSA access was enabled by changes to US surveillance law introduced under President Bush and renewed under Obama in December 2012.

The program facilitates extensive, in-depth surveillance on live communications and stored information. The law allows for the targeting of any customers of participating firms who live outside the US, or those Americans whose communications include people outside the US.

It also opens the possibility of communications made entirely within the US being collected without warrants.
Disclosure of the PRISM program follows a leak to the Guardian on Wednesday of a top-secret court order compelling telecoms provider Verizon to turn over the telephone records of millions of US customers.

The participation of the internet companies in PRISM will add to the debate, ignited by the Verizon revelation, about the scale of surveillance by the intelligence services. Unlike the collection of those call records, this surveillance can include the content of communications and not just the metadata.

Some of the world's largest internet brands are claimed to be part of the information-sharing program since its introduction in 2007. Microsoft – which is currently running an advertising campaign with the slogan "Your privacy is our priority" – was the first, with collection beginning in December 2007.
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First they came for the communists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.


Then they came for the socialists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a socialist.


Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.


Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.


Then they came for the Catholics,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Catholic.


Then they came for me,
and there was no one left to speak for me.


Pastor Martin Niemöller

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 42.03 Moz, Eligible 121.41 Moz, Total 163.44 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Below, the EUSSR. More on our lawless age. How the tax and work shy Greeks were sacrificed to save the euro, and German and French banksters holding Greek debt. And all for nought unless France reforms its economy, for unreformed, France will take down the European Monetary Union anyway.

Olli Rehn should resign for crimes against Greece and against economics

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: June 6th, 2013
Nobody has taken responsibility for the disastrous errors made by the EU-IMF Troika in Greece, where youth unemployment has just reached 58.3pc.

Nobody has resigned, or missed a day’s pay, or faced any kind of censure from an elected body, despite the withering indictment just issued by the IMF.

Worse yet, the basic conceptual policy errors that led to this tragic episode have not been fully corrected.
With a little trimming here and there, the eurozone is sticking to the same mix of self-defeating contractionary policies that have tipped the region back into a double-dip recession, with seven quarters in a row of falling GDP, soaring unemployment, and an ever starker divergence with the United States.

Just to recap what our man Bruno Waterfield reported from Brussels, the IMF’s mea culpa admits that the Troika sacrificed Greece to save the euro.

----The Troika recoiled from the standard IMF policy of debt restructuring for Greece in 2010 because it was “politically difficult” for countries (France? Germany?) whose banks held Greek bonds.

The report said the terms of the rescue violated three of the IMF’s four key rules for lending to insolvent countries, no small matter given that it was the biggest loan the Fund has ever made in proportion to a member’s quota, and given that staff were “unable to vouch that public debt was sustainable”.

It admitted that the 2010 package was a “holding operation” that “gave the euro area time to build a firewall to protect other vulnerable members and averted potentially severe effects on the global economy”.

The European Commission defended itself yesterday, saying a debt restructuring in 2010 would have caused havoc in the bond markets and virulent contagion. This is true, but what kind of a defence is that?

Yes, everybody feared a chain-reaction of sovereign defaults reaching Italy and Spain, but this was entirely because the ECB was recklessly refusing to carry out its responsibility as a lender of last resort, the ultimate purpose of any central bank. In doing so, it was endangering the entire global financial system.
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"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."

Richard M. Ebeling

Another weekend, and depending on later today’s US employment figures, what might turn in to an exciting one too. If the employment numbers are good, the Fed’s “taper” and QE exit is back on, and that sets up the risk of a Black Monday. On the other hand, if the unemployment number of bad, suggesting that the US economy is stagnating or worse, the FED’s QE forever is back on, blowing the Fed’s final bubble ever higher and higher until disaster. Have a great weekend everyone. Remember, be careful of whom you call and what you say. Someone is listening in with bad intent.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:
DJIA: +142 Up. NASDAQ: +144 Up. SP500: +177 Up.  The  Fed’s Final Bubble continues. But hurricanes and tornadoes appear. Getting out first beats getting out last.

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