Baltic Dry Index. 1125 +35.
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“The
boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an
ever-accelerated pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional
quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market.”
Ludwig von Mises.
Great Vampire Squids 10 Bernocchio 0. In a rout for
Wall Street and stock marketeers globally, the Fed blinked when faced with a
stock market slam down by the pros, in response to the bond market selloff,
that arose from Dr. Bernanke’s Great Miscaculation. More proof again that once
on QE forever, it really is forever until the cows come home. Stepping in to
end it merely adds more proof to Von Mises assertion. Stay long physical
precious metals, the great correction is probably over and it’s
time to start buying the dips again.
“But
it [the boom] could not last forever even if inflation and credit expansion
were to go on endlessly. It would then encounter the barriers which prevent the
boundless expansion of circulation credit. It would lead to the crack-up boom
and the breakdown of the whole monetary system.”
Ludwig von Mises.
Risk of 1937 relapse as Fed gives up fight against deflation
The US Federal Reserve has jumped the gun. It has mishandled its exit strategy from quantitative easing, triggering a global bond rout that it did not anticipate, and is struggling to control.
It has
set off an emerging market shock and risks "blowback" from a fresh
spasm of the eurozone debt crisis, and it is letting all this happen at the
same time, before the US economy is safely out of the woods.
It has
violated its own counter-deflation strategy, tightening monetary policy even
though core PCE inflation has fallen to the lowest levels in living memory and
below levels deemed dangerous enough in the past to warrant a blast of
emergency stimulus. It is doing so even though the revival of bank lending has
faded.
The
entire pivot by the Federal Open Market Committee is mystifying, almost
amateurish, and risks repeating the errors made by the Bank of Japan a decade
ago, and perhaps repeating a mini-1937 when the Fed lost its nerve and tipped
the US economy into a second leg of the Great Depression. "It’s all about
tighter policy," was the lonely lament by St Louis Fed chief James
Bullard.
The Fed
seems to be acting in the belief that the US economy will shake off this year's
fiscal tightening - 2pc to 3pc of GDP - and that a housing recovery is now
entrenched. The sharp fall of Wall Street's homebuilders index would suggest
caution. Unlike the surging Case-Shiller index of house prices, it looks
forward, not three months backwards.
More
Severely frightened by May-June’s market action,
the Fed is now back to Voodoo actions again. One day QE will end in a rout of
the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money. Deficits didn’t matter until one day
suddenly they did. And so it will be for QE forever. Buzz Lightyear is back in
control at the Fed.
“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press
(or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S.
dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost…We conclude that under a
paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending
and hence positive inflation.”
Dr. Ben Bernanke
US growth revised down to 1.8pc
The US economy grew only 1.8pc in the first quarter, the Commerce Department, in a sharp downward revision from the previous estimate of 2.4pc.
It said
personal spending was lower than previously estimated, and that both exports
and imports actually declined in the January-March period. The rate was still
higher than the 0.4pc rate in the October-December quarter.
The third
and final estimate for the quarter suggested that the payroll tax increases
that kicked in at the start of the year, and fears about government spending
cuts introduced in March, encouraged US households and businesses to hold back.
Consumer
spending grew only 2.6pc in the quarter, compared to the previous estimate of
3.4pc.
Exports
shrank 1.1pc in the quarter, and imports - which act to lower growth in GDP
calculations - contracted 0.4pc.
Another
sharp revision was business investment in buildings and other structures, which
shrank by 8.3pc in the quarter, compared to the earlier estimate of just a
3.5pc contraction.
----"If we end
up with three consecutive quarters of sub-2 percent growth, the Fed won't taper
under those conditions. They need convincing signs of a pickup before they turn
the taps," said economist Jennifer Lee of BMO Capital Markets.
More
Don’t Panic as Bond Market Ship Not Sinking, Pimco’s Gross Says
By Grant Clark & Rocky Swift - Jun 27, 2013 4:04 AM GMT
ond yields and risk spreads were too low two months ago and global markets
that were too leveraged are now reducing risk, according to Bill Gross,
manager of the world’s largest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co.
Gross’s $285 billion Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX) led declines among the most-popular bond mutual funds earlier this month after the Federal Reserve sparked a global selloff in bonds by indicating it may start reducing asset purchases known as quantitative easing, or QE.
“In
trying to be specific about which conditions would prompt a tapering of QE, the
Fed tilted overrisked investors to one side of an overloaded and overlevered
boat,” Gross said in his July commentary titled “The Tipping Point”, posted on Newport Beach,
California-based Pimco’s website. "Don't panic," he wrote.
More
Asia Stocks Rise on U.S. GDP as Kospi Soars; Gold Rallies
By Emma O’Brien & Richard Frost - Jun 27, 2013 5:16 AM GMT
Asian stocks rose for a second day, extending a global rebound, as investors
speculated the Federal Reserve may hold back from reducing monetary stimulus
and Chinese money-market rates decreased. South Korea’s won strengthened, while
gold advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.7 percent at 12:14 p.m. in Tokyo, trimming its June decline to 4.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index surged the most since September. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) added 0.1 percent. The cost of locking in China’s interest rates fell for a fifth day. The Dollar Index halted its longest stretch of gains since May 2012, while the won rose against most of its major peers. Gold added 0.8 percent.
More
In China, it was blink time too. The PBOC quickly
lost its nerve once the shadow financial system went into meltdown on even very
modest tightening. It seems everywhere is now on a journey “to infinity and
beyond.” Stay long physical precious metals. Long before we reach infinity, let
alone get beyond, my money is on Mises “crack up boom” appearing out of nowhere,
before the new graphene based Electric Carbon Age arrives to reset the global
economy. Though the Industrial Revolution was a great success in the long run,
it had little influence on downturns in the business cycle.
China Swap, Money Rates Fall for Fifth Day on PBOC Easing Signs
By Kyoungwha Kim - Jun 27, 2013 5:26 AM GMT
China’s benchmark
interest-rate swap and interbank lending rate fell for a fifth day, the longest
runs of declines in at least two months, on signs the central bank is adding
funds selectively to ease a cash squeeze. About 10 transactions for overnight loans in the interbank market were recorded yesterday after 3:55 p.m. in Shanghai at rates of between 3.5 percent and 4 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Those were the lowest levels of the day and compared with the daily average of 5.51 percent. The People’s Bank of China signaled this week that while it won’t let the cash crunch roil money markets, any liquidity support will be focused on banks that are lending to help the economy.
“The PBOC will remain the lender of last resort, preventing a systemic threat, and will try to improve the liquidity situation, but only gradually, leaving markets unstable,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Credit Agricole CIB strategist in Hong Kong, wrote in a research note today.
The one-year interest-rate swap, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, dropped six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 3.85 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in Shanghai, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It reached an all-time high of 5.06 percent on June 20 and rose 54 basis points this month, the most since January 2011
More
We end for the day with the
EUSSR. When the crooked EU banksters fail as they will from time to time, thanks to banksters like Mario Draghi, who
now heads up the ECB but once headed up the crooked Bank of Italy, Cyprus is
the model to be followed. After wiping out the banks creditors, except those
given a walk called an “exemption,” bank depositors above the guaranteed limit
get “bailed in,” and after that taxpayers are on the hook. Of course this being
the EUSSR, we all know only cronies will get an exemption, and the central bank
cronies will be tipped off about when to move excess funds over the border into
Germany, Switzerland or the UK. A typical European stitch up for those unwise
enough to be outsiders keeping anything but minimal cash in an European bank.
Below that, China opens up a new
front in the EU’s unwinnable trade war with China.
EU Finance Chiefs Said to Reach Deal on Failing Banks
By Jim Brunsden, Rebecca
Christie & Fred Pals - Jun 27, 2013 2:32 AM GMT
European
Union finance chiefs struck an agreement on how to handle failing banks, a step
they said would bolster investor confidence and help overcome the euro-area
financial crisis.
In seven
hours of emergency negotiations in Brussels that wrapped up at about 1:30 a.m.
today, ministers settled on guidelines for assigning losses to private
creditors and regulating public assistance. They also spelled out when
governments can step in and established a role for the European Stability
Mechanism, the euro area’s 500 billion-euro ($651 billion) firewall fund.
----The deal came hours before EU government
leaders meet to take stock of the progress toward their 2012 pledge to break
the cycle of contagion between banks and sovereign borrowers. The European
Central Bank is due to oversee financial supervision in the euro zone next year,
the first stage in a strategy combining new EU resolution procedures along with
national backstops.
---- While nations endorsed the banking-union project in principle last year, Germany has indicated that it disagrees with the European Commission’s blueprint, warning that a strong central resolution authority, backed by a common bank fund, goes beyond what is possible under current treaties.
----The ministers’ agreement requires regulators to write down creditors, in order of seniority, until 8 percent of the distressed bank’s liabilities are wiped out, before they could grant exemptions and turn to national backstops instead. The deal offers some wiggle room for regulators, after notifying the European Commission, to exempt some creditors and shift the burden to others.
When government backstops are tapped, the first in line would be national resolution funds that countries finance by levies on their banks. The deal says those funds should reach the size of 1.3 percent of a nation’s insured bank deposits and says the Brussels-based commission must approve any use. Today’s agreement says these funds won’t be allowed to contribute an amount more than 5 percent of a failing bank’s liabilities unless unsecured senior bondholders are wiped out.
More
27 June
2013 - 07H53
China slaps anti-dumping tax on EU chemical
AFP - China announced on Thursday it
would impose anti-dumping tariffs on a chemical imported from the European
Union, the latest twist in a series of bitter trade disputes between the two
economic giants.
The
Chinese government from Friday will collect punitive taxes of up to 36.9
percent from the EU on toluidine, an agent used to produce dyes, medicines,
pesticides and other products, the commerce ministry said.
China a
year ago opened an investigation into the alleged dumping -- or selling at a
price below costs -- of EU toluidine in the country. The tax will be collected
for five years, the ministry said in a statement.
----The ruling came as China and the EU are at loggerheads over a series of disputes covering products including solar panels, telecom equipment, wine and steel pipes.
The
European Commission, the EU's executive arm, earlier this month imposed an
average tariff of 11.8 percent on solar panel imports from China -- which will
rise to more than 47 percent in August if negotiations fail to resolve the dispute.
China
quickly hit back by launching an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy inquiry into
sales of European wine, stoking fears the dispute was escalating
More
Toluidine on EU imports of five years imposed anti-dumping duties
[Issued by] the Ministry of Commerce [Posted
symbol] Notice 2013 No. 44
[Release Date] 2013-06-27
---- For each
company anti-dumping tax rate is as follows:
EU companies
1 LANXESS Deutschland limited liability company
19.6%
(LANXESS Deutschland GmbH)
(2) Other EU companies 36.9%
More
"Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency union as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries"
Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research.
At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 41.40
Moz, Eligible 123.45 Moz, Total 164.85 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today we take a break from the where’s Snowy saga,
in favour of the shock among the UK’s nasty Notting Hill elite, that Generation
X has gone Thatcherite. While U-turn Cameron, and his “heir to Blair,” accident
prone, granny bashing, homosexual promoting, one termer government, move from
the right to the left, leaving UKIP to become the only legitimate conservative
party, Generation X is far to the right of the loony Cameroonians. At the next UK election it’s anyone’s guess
as to the outcome.
My policies are based not on some economics theory, but on things I and millions like me were brought up with: an honest day’s work for an honest day’s pay; live within your means; put by a nest egg for a rainy day; pay your bills on time; support the police.
Margaret Thatcher.
Guardian robot baffled by Generation Y's embrace of Thatcherism. Does not compute. Does not compute
Toby Young Politics Last updated: June 26th, 2013There's a great example in the Guardian this morning of what Americans call "gee whiz" journalism, as in, a piece of news greeted as if it's jaw-droppingly sensational when, to the rest of us is, it's bleedin’ obvious. I'm talking about John Harris's belated discovery that "the yoof" don't share the values of the liberal, Guardian-reading metropolitan elite. Incredible as it may seem, they're not pro-immigration, pro-welfare or pro-redistributive taxation. According to Ipsos MORI, only 20 per cent of 18-34-year-olds agree with the statement "the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements". How dare they?!?
Most amazingly of all – to Harris, anyway – is that Generation Y don't blame the "Con-Dem cuts" for youth unemployment. Haven't they been listening to Len McCluskey?
The most telling passage in the article comes at the end, when Harris meets a 27-year-old in Warrington who's just got a job after a bout of unemployment thanks to the government's Work Programme. Harris asks him whether he thinks his joblessness was his fault.
"Yeah," he says. "I do. I think I should have applied for more. I should have picked myself up in the morning, got out, come to a place like this – tried more. When you're feeling down, you start blaming the world for your mistakes – you feel the world owes you. And it doesn't. You owe the world: you have to motivate yourself, and get out there, and try."
Harris describes this reply as – wait for it – "heartbreaking". Yes, it breaks the Guardianista's heart that this young person doesn't think the world owes him a living. Instead of becoming welfare dependent, trapped for the rest of his life in poverty and despair – as any self-respecting member of the proletariat should, doncha know – he's actually gone out and found himself a job! Oh tempora! Oh mores! What's become of the client state? It's as if 13 years of New Labour never happened.
Harris blames "Thatcherism" for the proletariat's false consciousness – and the fact that Labour hasn't been a proper socialist party since Tony Blair ditched Clause IV. The "up-by-your-boot-straps Conservatism of Norman Tebbit and Margaret Thatcher" (yah, boo, sucks) went "largely unchallenged during the New Labour years" and is now accepted by millions of young people as "a simple matter of fact". Echoes here of red daiper baby Owen Jones, whom Harris singles out (alongside public schoolgirl Laurie Penny) as a beacon of hope amidst all the gloom. Owen thinks "the rightwing media" is to blame for brainwashing the lumpen proles. If only the poor sods read the Guardian or the Independent, then they'd know THE TRUTH which is that the millionaire-Tory-Bullingdon-Boys-ruling-class have a vested interest in keeping them down.
Hmmm. Call me a capitalist running dog, but I can think of another explanation for Generation Y's lack of enthusiasm for the values of John Harris, Owen Jones and public schoolgirl Laurie Penny.
Maybe – just maybe – the reason 18-34-year-olds aren't wild about the consequences of Labour's open-door immigration policy is because they noticed that nine out of ten jobs created under the last government went to foreign-born workers.
Maybe – just maybe – the young residents of towns like Warrington aren't in lockstep with John Harris and Owen Jones and public schoolgirl Laurie Penny when it comes to state hand-outs is because they've witnessed the appalling, destructive, calamitous impact of welfare dependency with their own eyes.
More
"The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice."
Henry Hazlitt
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:
DJIA: +142 Up. NASDAQ: +144 Up. SP500: +177 Up. The Fed’s
Final Bubble continues. But hurricanes and tornadoes appear. Getting out first
beats getting out last.
No comments:
Post a Comment