Tuesday 15 May 2012

Unraveling.


Baltic Dry Index. 1132 -06

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar.

The great Bilderberger project, the United States of Europe lies in ruins this morning. There is no United States of Europe, merely a snake bit, ill advised, dysfunctional, European Monetary Union that no longer works for most of its members. It true European bureaucratic style, all of the EMU members know it’s over, but none can pull the trigger without ending the gravy train on which they feed. In consequence much more European wealth will get destroyed first before the inevitable happens. The EMU will go the way of all currency unions. Then the recrimination will start.

Today, old socialist Mr Hollande gets sworn in as President of France  and instantlt becomes the “Flying Dutchman,” ordered to Berlin to meet the paymasters of Europe. But Chancellor Merkel’s party was rebuffed at the weekend in Sunday’s election in North Rhine Westphalia. Germany seem likely to elect a socialist-green coalition government. From Britain to Greece Europe’s voters are moving against austerity regimes. Whether they know it yet or not, the paymasters of Europe, the “European Americans” according to Der Spiegel, are about to find out just how costly becoming Europe’s Americans can become. Stay  long precious metals. Before the folly of the United States of Europe comes to an end, a whole lot more European wealth must be dissipated first.

Below, the state of Europe as Mr Hollande takes over France. “Get out” Merkel unwisely tells Greece.

“I don’t envisage, not even for one second, Greece leaving the euro area. This is nonsense. This is propaganda,” Mr Juncker said angrily at a news conference. “We have to respect Greek democracy.”

Financial Times.

Merkel tells Greece to back cuts or face euro exit

Greece may be forced to leave the euro if the country refuses to implement spending cuts agreed with the European Union, Angela Merkel warned.

By Robert Winnett, David Blair and Bruno Waterfield 10:00PM BST 14 May 2012
Raising the spectre of a Greek exit, the German chancellor said “solidarity for the euro” was threatened by the ongoing political crisis in Athens.

Stock markets around the world fell sharply with fears mounting that a euro break-up could lead to renewed financial turmoil. The FTSE-100 index of Britain’s major companies fell by two per cent to 5465, with bank shares hit particularly hard.

----An outgoing Greek minister warned that the country could descend into “civil war” amid the chaos of a euro exit. “If Greece cannot meet its obligations and serve its debt the pain will be great,” Michalis Chrysohoidis was quoted as telling a local radio station. “What will prevail are armed gangs with Kalashnikovs and which one has the greatest number of Kalashnikovs will count … we will end up in civil war.”

----Yesterday, Mrs Merkel raised the spectre of Greece leaving the euro. She is under increasing pressure in Germany to force the country out of the single currency to avert several more years of uncertainty. “I believe it’s better for the Greeks to stay in the euro area, but that also requires that we set out a path on which Greece gets back on its feet step by step,” said the chancellor.
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May 14, 2012, 4:43 p.m. ET

Hazardous Greek-Exit Scenario

There is no legal provision in European Union treaties for a country to exit the euro zone, putting experts in uncharted waters when trying to assess method and the repercussions. But if Greece were forced to leave after losing financial support, it would show that Europe's historic currency project can disintegrate as well as integrate. Here are some possible answers.

How does Greece leave the euro?
In one scenario, a Greek authority would have to agree on a date with the rest of the euro zone for its departure and for the introduction of a new currency (let's call it the new drachma). It would say that from that date, all public salaries, contracts and pensions would be paid in drachma. Bank deposits would also be redenominated. The authority would likely decide an initial conversion rate on domestic contracts from euros to new drachma—say one-to-one—then it would likely let the exchange rate of the new drachma be decided by the currency market. This would likely result in a sharp devaluation. If Greeks anticipate that, there is a risk of increased bank withdrawals and capital flight. This could trigger capital controls, making an orderly exit unlikely.

Could the drachma ever recover?
Ultimately, it would find a level that made Greek products and services internationally attractive again. What would happen then would depend on how policy makers, the Greek central banks and Greeks themselves reacted to the devaluation, because the competitive benefits of devaluation could be easily inflated away. The two most recent parallels, Argentina and Russia, saw their currencies fall by between 60%-70% after bankruptcy forced them to abandon their currency pegs. But comparisons are difficult. There is no obvious equivalent for Greece to the upturn in oil and commodity prices in 2001 that helped those two countries recover.
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Dixons makes plans to shut shops in Greece

Dixons, the electricals retailer, has drawn up plans to temporarily shut its shops in Greece in the event of the country withdrawing from the euro.

The company is nervous about chaos and civil unrest if Greece is forced to quit the single currency and return to the drachma.

The move was welcomed by Lord Kalms, the life president of the company which he expanded from his father's one outlet into a major international retail chain. He said it was "inevitable" that Greece would withdraw. "Greece should never have been in the first place."

He added that Dixons, which derives about 3.5pc of its group turnover from Greece, should probably not have opened shops there: "With hindsight it was not a good move."

His comments came after Seb James, the new chief executive of Dixsons, gave an interview saying he had drawn up precise plans as to which shops would close and how it would protect itself from civil unrest.

"We have to be ready. Sometimes it feels like they are about to leave, sometimes it feels like it's going to be fine. We are in one of those not particularly great phases at the moment. We have of course made plans," he told the Financial Times.

French economy stalls as Francois Hollande is sworn in

The French economy did not grow at all in first three months of 2012 and the previous quarter's growth was cut, in a blow to new president Francois Hollande.

Official figures released on Tuesday showed that French GDP growth was 0pc in the three months to March 31. Growth in the last quarter of 2011 was revised down to 0.1pc from 0.2pc.

Official statistics agency INSEE said the economy grew by 1.7pc overall in 2011.

Unemployment rose slightly to 11.5pc from 11.4pc.

The figures will weigh on new president Francois Hollande, who will be sworn in later today after defeating Nicolas Sarkozy at the polls last week.

Within hours of the inauguration ceremony at the Elysee Palace, Mr Hollande will fly to Germany for crucial eurozone talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel.

----Mr Hollande has vowed to confront a crisis in the public finances with a combination of a heavier tax burden and lower public spending, targeting a returning to a balanced budget by the end of his five-year term in office.

It is a tall order for a country swamped by an annual budget deficit of €100bn euros and a debt level of 90pc of GDP.

The crisis goes deeper. "Since 2005, export growth has fallen significantly below the euro area average," said the International Monetary Fund.

"Current account balances continue to deteriorate, raising concerns about the competitiveness of French exports. These contain a large share of low to medium-tech products that face competition from emerging economies," it said.

UniCredit, Intesa Among 26 Italian Banks Cut by Moody’s

UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) were among 26 Italian banks that had their credit ratings cut one to four levels by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited weakened earnings and the country’s economic outlook.

UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank, had its long-term debt rating lowered one step to A3, Moody’s said in a spreadsheet on its website yesterday. Milan-based Intesa, the nation’s second- largest lender, also was downgraded to A3 from A2.

“Italian banks are particularly vulnerable to adverse operating conditions, which are likely to cause further asset quality deterioration, earnings pressure, and restricted market funding access,” Moody’s said in a statement. “These risks are exacerbated by investor concerns over the sustainability of the Italian government’s debt burden, which has contributed to the difficult wholesale funding conditions faced by Italian banks.”

The action followed Moody’s decision on Feb. 13 to cut the credit rating of Italy and five other countries, including Spain, on doubts over the euro region’s ability to deal with the debt crisis. Italy was lowered to A3, or four steps above junk, from A2 with a negative outlook.

Spanish borrowing costs surge on bank rescue fears

Spanish borrowing costs rose to their highest level over Germany's since the euro was launched, amid fears the country's latest bank rescue plan is inadequate.

The yield on Spanish benchmark 10-year bonds hit 6.3pc, plunging further into the danger zone as traders worried that the €30bn (£23.9bn) bank recapitalisation plan unveiled by Madrid on Friday is still not enough.

Traders instead sought safety in German government debt, yields of which fell to the lowest-ever level. The spread between German and Spanish borrowing costs hit a record 486 basis points.
Spain’s government is poised to intervene in the finances of some of its autonomous regions as it struggles to meet strict deficit reduction targets imposed by Brussels.

Shares in Bankia, Spain’s fourth largest savings bank which was part-nationalised last week, slumped to half the value of their listing price last year and Spanish savers rushed to remove deposits from the stricken lender.

The Spanish government, which is due to approve the spending plans of its 17 autonomous regions later this week, may have to take control of spending in the communities of Asturias in the north and Andalusia in the south after their austerity budgets were not deemed to go far enough.

German GDP Grew 5 Times More Than Forecast in 1st Quarter

By Jana Randow - May 15, 2012 7:00 AM GMT
The German economy grew five times more than economists forecast in the first quarter as exports to emerging markets offset waning euro-area demand.

Gross domestic product in Europe’s largest economy rose 0.5 percent from the fourth quarter, when it fell 0.2 percent, the Federal Statistics Office said in Wiesbaden today. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent gain, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. French GDP stagnated.

With the euro region’s debt crisis ravaging economies from Greece to Spain, German companies have shifted focus. Carmakers and their suppliers are benefitting from demand in faster- growing markets such as China, while falling unemployment and rising wages are stimulating spending at home. Business confidence rose for a sixth month in April after company earnings outpaced expectations in the first quarter.

“The debt crisis will continue to weigh on the economy,” said Ralph Solveen, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Germany won’t record its strongest growth ever, but it will continue to outperform its euro-region peers.”

The statistics office said growth was mainly driven by net trade as exports rose from the previous quarter. Domestic consumption also increased while investment declined. A detailed breakdown for the quarter will be published on May 24. From a year earlier, German GDP increased 1.7 percent.
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"We are not discussing the exit of Greece from the euro area. This is a stupid idea and an avenue we would never take."

Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers.

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 35.73 Moz, Eligible 104.76 Moz, Total 140.49 Moz.  

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