Baltic Dry Index. 1156 -09
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“We should offer Greece a
controlled exit from the eurozone, without withdrawing from the European Union.
The dogma that no country is allowed to leave the eurozone has already caused
too much damage to European policy.”
Klaus-Peter Willsch, a close ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel,
May 09 2012.
Move over Europe, make way for China. China’s
import growth collapsed in April, has contagion now reached China? If the
official statistics are this bad, what is the reality in the Chinese economy?
May 10, 2012, 12:39 a.m. EDT
China trade data show surprising weakness
HONG KONG
(MarketWatch) — Chinese trade data showed a sharp drop in activity in April,
with both export and import growth falling well short of expectations, raising
fresh concerns about the resilience of the Chinese economy amid softening
global demand.
Exports
rose 4.9% in April from a year earlier, while imports rose just 0.3%, data
released by China’s General Administration of Customs. showed.
The
results were far below economists’ expectations. A Reuters survey had tipped
11% growth for imports, while a Dow Jones Newswires survey had predicted a 10%
rise. For exports, both news services’ surveys had projected an 8.5% gain.
China’s
trade surplus for April widened to $18.4 billion, up from $5.4 billion in
March, exceeding expectations of $10.4 billion in the two surveys.
Normally
a widening trade surplus is considered a good thing, but April’s result
appeared more related to a weakness in imports, and a sign of deteriorating
demand in China for goods ranging from Italian supercars to U.S. baby formula.
----Piper Jaffray’s
Andrew Sullivan said the weaker import figures merit the most concern among
Thursday’s data, as it puts “in question China’s intention to stimulate
domestic consumption.”
More
Now back to the economic suicide of a continent.
The Bilderbergers are actually considering forcing Greece out of the European
Monetary Union by withholding rescue payments. Something likely to be noted in
Europe’s other PIIGS and blocked I would think. Exit tomorrow, is better than
exit this Friday night, although by an unhappy coincidence, that happens to be
the same thing but you get my meaning.
May 9, 2012, 11:19 a.m. ET
Euro Zone Considers Delay of Next Greek Payment
BRUSSELS—Euro-zone
officials are considering delaying a €5.2 billion payment to Greece as the
political backlash grows in Athens against a bailout program negotiated with
international creditors, officials familiar with the discussion said Wednesday.
The
European Commission said earlier this week that Greece is due to receive the
funds Thursday, part of a previously approved disbursement from the €130
billion bailout sealed in March with the euro zone and the International
Monetary Fund. But Germany, Finland and others are wary of making the payment
because of comments from Greek politicians following Sunday's elections calling
for the bailout to be renegotiated.
Senior
euro-zone finance officials will discuss the issue in conference calls over the
next day, an official said.
Greece
needs the funds mainly to repay €3.3 billion in Greek bonds maturing May 18
that are held by the European Central Bank and national euro-zone central
banks.
Some
governments want to delay the payment, but the euro zone's previous approval of
the tranche may leave them little wiggle room.
More
Next, Germany puts the jackboot in. Poor Greece, it’s not enough being serfs of Berlin, they must be destitute each other as well.
Keep cutting or EU aid stops, Greeks told
Germany has threatened to suspend payments to Greece unless it surrenders to European Union demands for new austerity measures.
By Bruno
Waterfield in Brussels and Alex Spillius in Greece 10:00PM BST 09 May 2012
A senior
German MP called for a Greek exit from the euro and pressure mounted on
squabbling politicians in Athens who have failed to form a government since
last weekend’s general election.
The
political turmoil triggered market turbulence yesterday as shares fell on fears
that Greece will be forced out of the euro within months. Concern that the
problems may spread pushed up the price of borrowing for Spain and Italy.
Guido
Westerwelle, the German foreign minister, warned that unless Greece implemented
£12 billion of new austerity measures next month the EU will stop aid
“tranches”, a move that would cause the collapse of public services and make
the Greek state bankrupt.
“If
Greece ends the reform process it has undertaken, then I can’t see that the
respective tranches can be paid out,” he said. For the first time, senior
politicians close to Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have called for a
plan to be drawn up for a Greek departure from the eurozone.
“We should
offer Greece a controlled exit from the eurozone, without withdrawing from the
EU,” said Klaus-Peter Willsch, the chairman of the German parliament’s budget
committee, which has a veto over EU bail-outs.
----Greece was a step closer to leaving the euro last night after the hardline Leftist charged with forming a government declared the bail-out dead as coalition talks broke down.
Germany
led warnings to Alexis Tsipras that next month’s €5 billion (£4 billion)
instalment of the rescue plan would not be paid if the political turmoil in
Athens continued.
Mr
Tsipras dismayed officials in Brussels by stating in writing that the €130
billion rescue plan had been rejected as unacceptably harsh by the Greek
people.
A default
would almost certainly set the country on a path to leave the currency.
More
Next, more on modern Europe. Who would want to be
in a monetary union made up of modern Europeans? Euros anyone?
Spain nationalises Bankia as euro crisis escalates
Spain has nationalised crippled lender Bankia in a dramatic move to contain the esalating crisis and restore faith in the country's management.
The
forced rescue was ordered by premier Mariano Rajoy after auditors Deloitte
refused to sign off the bank's books, amid allegations of €3.5bn (£2.8bn) of
inflated assets. Half of the bank's €37bn of property exposure is deemed
"problematic" by regulators.
The
lender has asked for €4.5bn in loans, converting the cash into ordinary shares.
The Spanish government holding 45pc of the bank in return. Bank of Spain has
also demanded Bankia dispose of assets as part of the rescue.
"The
Spanish have denied until now that there was any need for fresh capital so it
comes as a surprise. It wasn't intended, and that is a worry," said Guy
Mandy, credit strategist at Nomura.
Yields on
Spanish 10-year bonds jumped above 6pc on Wednesday, pushing spreads over
German Bunds to the danger line above 450 points. Spain's IBEX stock index fell
2.8pc, hitting its lowest level since 2003.
Bank
shares plunged on plans by regulators to demand a further €37bn in provisions
against property loans, on top of the €54bn already required. A string of banks
now risk nationalisation.
More
Nicolas Sarkozy faces questioning in raft of investigations as immunity ends
Nicolas Sarkozy could face questioning in a raft of party financing and corruption cases when he leaves the Elysée next week and loses his presidential immunity.
----But
the outgoing president could soon be called for questioning – either as a
witness or potentially as a suspect – in several corruption cases when he loses
presidential immunity a month after leaving office on May 15.
Judges
are likely to want to summon him over an investigation into who ordered French
intelligence to unlawfully seek to uncover the source of journalists working
for Le Monde. France's intelligence chief is currently under investigation over
the affair in which Le Monde exposed embarrassing links between Mr Sarkozy's
government and Liliane Bettencourt, the l'Oréal billionaire caught up in a tax
evasion and illegal party financing inquiry.
Mr
Sarkozy is suspected of benefiting from brown envelopes of cash to help fund
his 2007 campaign from Mrs Bettencourt and her late husband, André, whose
former bookkeeper has told judges she withdrew 150,000 euros earmarked for Mr
Sarkozy's then campaign treasurer.
---- The most recent corruption allegation to be levelled against him is that he received 50 million euros of illegal campaign contributions from the late Muammar Gaddafi.
Last
month, investigative news website Mediapart published what it said was a copy
of a document signed by Moussa Koussa, Col Gaddafi's intelligence chief in 2006
outlining the alleged funding deal. Mr Sarkozy has dismissed it as a forgery.
Saif-Al
Islam Gaddafi, Gaddafi's son and former heir, last year unambiguously claimed
that Libya had funded Mr Sarkozy's election.
----
Last
December, Jacques Chirac became the first post-war French head of state to be
convicted of criminal wrongdoing, receiving a two-year suspended prison
sentence for diverting public funds and abusing public trust.
More
Why the euro is doomed to fall apart: it was an incredibly stupid idea in the first place
Economics Last updated: May 9th, 2012The euro is doomed to fall apart: no, not because I'm some nasty man in UKIP but because the basic idea was such a terrible one. Our chart above (from JP Morgan Asset Management, which you can see more easily by clicking here) shows just how terrible it was. It would, in economic terms, have been better to have a new currency for all countries beginning with the letter M than for the eurozone. Or for all countries that have the 5th parallel North passing through them.
Yes, of course, we all know, the euro is the bright new dawn, the vital step in stopping Germany from invading France. Again. No one seems to have noticed it that they managed it last time and having experienced the place seem to have no desire at all to go back. So this might not be a problem that needs a solution.
However, let's look behind the political posturing and ask ourselves whether, in economic terms, the euro was a sensible idea. The structure we need to help us decide is Robert Mundell's concept of an Optimum Currency Area. We should look at things like language barriers, labour mobility, capital, the similarity between economies, their reaction to external shocks – essentially what has been worked out for us in that chart.
And, as you can see, it's a blitheringly stupid idea to try and push countries into the same currency just because they happen to be next door to each other. People would have been better off if we'd insisted that the c. 1800 Ottoman Empire had the same currency again: Tunisia, Turkey, Israel and Greece. Which is a real indication of how dumb it was to try and get Greece and Germany into the same currency.
----Can we see any possible future in which we (or the Germans, the Finns or the Swedes) agree to pay such taxes so that we can build a Common European Home – or, if you like, to subsidise the countries which we really shouldn't have a common currency with?
No,
quite. I can't, either.
Look at
that chart again. The UK and it's English speaking offshoots: the US, Canada,
Australia, New Zealand and so on. They make up a more logical single currency
area than the eurozone. The euro was and is an insane economic idea balanced on
the nonsense upon stilts of a very silly indeed political ideal.
And, let
me remind you, just because you want to ignore economics does not mean that
economics is going to ignore you.
More
Next, a warning from America. Without political
consensus and action by year end, US GDP will face an automatic 5% hit, say the
US top economists. Stay long physical precious metals. The inmates aren’t just
running the global asylum, they’re trying to burn it down.
"The gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independent of the changing, ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence."
Ludwig von Mises
May 10, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT
We’re muddling along cliff’s edge, economist says
Greenlaw, Wieseman win contest for fourth time
WASHINGTON
(MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy will probably keep muddling along with 2.25%
growth and 8% unemployment for the next year or so, but there’s a great danger
that it will fall off the fiscal cliff looming at the end of the year, says
economist David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley, co-winner of the Forecaster of the
Month award from MarketWatch.
Greenlaw
and his colleague Ted Wieseman won the April contest by having the most
accurate forecasts among 45 forecasters across 11 major economic numbers. They
had the most accurate forecasts on nonfarm payrolls and the trade deficit, and
their forecasts for new-home sales, retail sales and industrial production were
among the 10 most accurate.
The
economy is expanding, but “we are very vulnerable to shocks,” such as the
fiscal cliff, high energy prices and the continuing danger from Europe,
Greenlaw said in an interview.
The
recent decline in energy prices is a welcome move, he said, but the drop “isn’t
enough by itself to alter the outlook a great deal.” Lower energy prices would
provide a “cushion” against negative shocks, but won’t result in much faster
growth.
The
fiscal cliff refers to the huge increases in taxes and reductions in spending
that will occur automatically on Jan. 1 if Congress doesn’t act to prevent
them. Greenlaw figures that the automatic changes in fiscal policy would
subtract about 5 percentage points from gross domestic product. The only other
time in the postwar era that we’ve had a comparable fiscal drag was in 1969,
and that led to a short recession in 1970. Read
Greenlaw’s analysis on the Morgan Stanley website.
More
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-muddling-along-cliffs-edge-economist-says-2012-05-10
We end with America today. The USA may be broke, mired in trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, but its got a spare billion dollars to build its very own version of China’s Ordos. Is fiat money great or what?
$1 billion 'ghost town' to be built in New Mexico
A $1 billion (£620 million) 'ghost town' is to be built in the United States in the name of scientific research.
The town,
which will be modelled on a town of 35,000 people, will have roads, houses and
commercial buildings, but will have no residents.
It will
be built in New Mexico about 15 miles west of the nearest town, Hobbs, which
has a population of about 40,000.
Scientists
hope to use the new 'town' to research innovations in renewable energy as well
as intelligent traffic systems and next generation wireless networks.
The
investors developing the Centre for Innovation, Technology and Testing (Cite)
say they wanted to test the effects of such innovations on a town but without
inconveniencing any residents.
The
project, which will create 350 jobs initially, will see an entire town built.
The houses will even have working lavatories and washing machines.
Building
is scheduled to begin on June 30.
Ghost
Towns are not uncommon in the USA. Many former towns have
been abandoned when the industry that was traditionally supporting the area
disappears.
However
the new 'smart city' is being billed as a first of its kind. It is thought to
be the only 'ghost town' built specifically to serve a purpose.
Every individual is a potential gold
buyer, although he may not need the gold. It may be added to the store of personal
wealth, and passed from generation to generation as an object of family wealth.
There is no other economic good as marketable as gold."
Hans F. Sennholz
At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final
figures were: Registered 35.57 Moz, Eligible 105.60 Moz, Total 141.17 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner.
The bent,
the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, more
on the public cost of “private” nuclear power. It’s another too big to fail boondoggle. Not to
worry, it’s only fiat money and there’s plenty more where that comes from. The
only question is, if free fiat money is available so easily, why isn’t it
available for the sick, the poor, the elderly, children, me? The Great Nixonian
Error of fiat money continues. On fiat money, all economic decisions are
political, a point not unnoticed by unions and rioting Greek voters.
Fukushima owner saved from collapse by Japanese government
Japan agrees to 1tn yen injection for Tepco, hit by
compensation claims and decontamination costs after nuclear plant's meltdown
Wednesday 9 May 2012 15.58 BST
Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), the company at the centre of Japan's
worst-ever nuclear accident, has been saved from collapse after the government
in effect nationalised the firm by agreeing to inject 1 trillion yen ($12.5bn)
in fresh capital.Japan's biggest utility has received at least 3.5tn yen in state support since three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant went into meltdown after being hit by a powerful tsunami on 11 March last year.
The trade and industry minister, Yukio Edano, said the capital injection was needed to ensure the utility company could continue to supply electricity to 45 million people, including residents of Tokyo.
"Without the state funds, [Tepco] cannot provide a stable supply of electricity and pay for compensation and decommissioning costs," Edano said after approving what amounts to a state takeover of the firm.
The total cost of the disaster, which last weekend led to the closure of the country's last working nuclear reactor, is estimated at $100bn.
Tepco faces compensation claims totalling 5tn yen from the tens of thousands of people who have been driven from their homes by radiation leaks.
The task of decontaminating the area affected by radiation and decommissioning the plant is expected to take decades.
Under the 10-year restructuring plan, the government will acquire more than half of Tepco's shares, with the option of increasing its stake to more than two-thirds if the company fails to reach its restructuring targets.
In return for the taxpayer bailout, Tepco plans to reduce costs by 3.7tn yen over the next 10 years and cut a 10th of its workforce. It will also need government approval to increase household electricity bills and restart nuclear reactors that pass stress tests introduced in the wake of the disaster.
More
"I see a great future for gold and silver coins as the currency people may increasingly turn to when paper currencies begin to disintegrate."
Murray M. Rothbard
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished April:
DJIA: +89 Down. NASDAQ: +97 Down. SP500: +63 Down. All
three indicators remain down but downward momentum is stalling.
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