You have to be fast on your feet and adaptive or else a strategy is useless.
We are well advanced into sunspot cycle 24, but so far the long sunspot minimum is loath to leave us and sunspot cycle 24 is barely producing sunspots at all. By now in a normal sunspot cycle, the advance from a normal minimum would have the monthly sunspot numbers well above 70. By the 32nd month of the last cycle, the monthly sunspot number was hitting 137. In the cycle before that it was 165 and starting to form what became a multiple peak near 200. In the cycle before that 111. Clearly this sunspot cycle is different.
Sunspot cycle 24: Nov 1.7. Dec 10.1. Jan 3.4. Feb 2.2. Mar 9.3 April 2.9. May: 2.9. June 3.1. July 0.5. August 0.5. Sep 1.1 Oct. 2.9. Nov. 4.1 Dec 0.8. Jan 1.5. Feb 1.4. Mar 0.7. Apr 1.2. May 2.9. June 2.6. July 3.5. Aug. 0.0. Sep 4.2. Oct 4.6. Nov 4.2. Dec 10.6 Jan 13.1 Feb 18.6 Mar 15.4. Apr 7.9, May 8.8, June 13.5
Sunspots. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
The count. http://sidc.oma.be/products/ri_hemispheric/
Why a New Minimum. http://sesfoundation.org/dalton_minimum.pdf
Solar magnetic cycles last 22 years, Hale double sunspot cycles, and begin on even numbered cycle. Cycle 24, Hale double cycle 13, began a new magnetic polarity cycle, and thanks to NASA and many other scientists work over recent decades, we have gotten pretty good at forecasting the size of the new starting cycle and even the one after that. The Prediction is that cycle 24 will peak much lower than cycle 23, and that the peak of cycle 25 will be lower still. It’s also highly likely that the next low between our latest sunspot cycle 24 and the next cycle 25 will also feature a prolonged lack of sunspots. For those of us who strongly suspect that it is changes in the sun that drive climatic changes here on earth, the existing cycle and the next put us in the position of living through a gigantic experiment. We will either be proved mostly right or mostly wrong. Over simplified, these next two cycles should be colder than the cycles of the late 19th century and the 20th century. Whether this applies to the whole planet or just to the temperate and arctic regions is among the big unknowns. The expectation is for winters to become much colder, snowier, and prolonged, but there isn’t the same sort of consensus, among those who believe in the solar cycle driving climate change as to what this means for the summer highs. Common sense would suggest that summers will be cooler and wetter, with the growing season becoming shorter over much of the planet. But an alternative view holds that though winters get colder and longer in the temperate zones, the summer warm up periods then happen faster and possibly become more extreme. We are probably about to find out which is right, but this giant experiment comes with real problems ahead for global food production, if the theory of the correlation of low sunspot numbers to colder weather and altered climate holds up.
Below, Dr. Landscheidt adds another element to the great solar cycle climatic debate. Among other predictions, the world is entering an extended wetter period starting from about 2007.
Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity Klammerfelsweg 5, 93449 Waldmuenchen, Germany
-----After the drought peak in 1934 the relationship is reversed. Now LPTCs (blue triangles) consistently go along with drought peaks and GPTCs (green triangles) with wet periods. This pattern has been stable since 1934 and should continue to be stable for many decades as it is modulated by a cycle of 179 years (Landscheidt, 1998 b). So the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years, as can be derived from Figure 1. A draught peak, indicated by LPTC (blue triangle) is to be expected from 2025 on and should last about five years.
------So, there is hope of a more detailed cause and effect explanation as soon as the still rudimentary theories of solar activity and climate change reach a more mature stage of development. Anyway, the correct forecast of the U.S. drought beginning in 1999 and a dozen of further successful climate forecasts, exclusively based on solar activity, show already now that the IPCC’s claim that there has only been a negligible solar effect on climate change in recent decades is not tenable. Ironically, just drought, the greatest threat attributed to alleged man-made global warming, has turned out to be regulated by variations in the sun’s eruptional activity.
http://www.john-daly.com/solar/US-drought.htm
While no one knows, if we are entering a new Dalton Minimum in global cooling for the next 20 or so years, let alone a new Maunder Minimum lasting 70-100 years, at the very least I would suggest that governments deliberately start rebuilding foodstuff stockpiles, and start building alternate storage facilities away from flood plains and vulnerable coastal flood zones. Like it or not, most are going to live through the next few decades, whatever happens, if we can come up with trillions for failed gambling bankster great vampire squids, it might not hurt to put a few mere millions into rebuilding a secure public food reserve.
I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians.
Charles de Gaulle
GI.
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