Baltic Dry Index. 2217 -02 Brent Crude 79.38
Spot Gold 1799
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 30/12/21 World 284,935,424
Deaths 5,438,948
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Albert Einstein.
Today, the alas and alack, woe is me, omicron edition!
The big story as we head into the New Year celebrations, is the massive surge in Covid-19 infections. For more on that scroll down to the Covid section.
Needless to say, mainstream media plus most Covid “experts” advising governments, are whipping up public fears over hospitalisations and soon to be rising death rates. More lockdowns and travel restrictions seem to be their intended result.
But this omicron surge in infections might not be the disaster for all, of the mainstream media panic.
Early data from South Africa, Denmark and the UK suggests that omicron is replacing delta and despite being far mor infectious, produces symptoms more like the common cold. We do not close down economies for the common cold.
While it’s still too early to know for certain, omicron’s mild infection might be the way most of the population gets to antibody herd immunity. Omicron plus New Year celebrations might turn out to be our silver lining.
In stock casino news, more of the never-ending everything bubble. I suspect “never-ending” ends next year under pressure from rising inflation, slowing Magic Money Tree fiat money, and stock casinos far from reflecting the harsh reality of the real economy.
Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rise; SenseTime jumps in Hong Kong debut
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mostly higher in Thursday trade after gains overnight on Wall Street led to a record close for both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.21% by the afternoon.
Shares of Chinese artificial intelligence firm SenseTime Group rose more than 4% from their issue price in early trading following their Thursday debut in Hong Kong. The stock later extended those gains and was more than 11% higher than the issue price by the afternoon in the city.
SenseTime has been caught in the crossfire of tensions between Beijing and Washington, with the firm earlier this month pushing its Hong Kong IPO back after being placed on a U.S. investment blacklist.
Mainland Chinese stocks were also higher, with the Shanghai composite up about 0.8% and the Shenzhen component gaining 1.19%.
Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 0.28% while the Topix index declined 0.15%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.47%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 sat below the flatline.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hovered 0.05% higher.
Wall Street record close
Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 gained 0.14% to 4,793.06 — its 70th record close of 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed at a record, rising 90.42 points to 36,488.63. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, slipping 0.1% to about 15,766.22.
Those moves came as investors continued to assess the economic risks from the omicron Covid variant that has contributed to a surge in infections in places such as the U.S. and U.K.
The World Health Organization also warned Wednesday that new Covid variants could emerge during the pandemic that are “fully resistant to current vaccines or past infection.”
More
Omicron is ‘not the same disease’ as previous Covid variants, Oxford University scientist says
LONDON — Horrific scenes seen in previous Covid-19 waves are “now history,” according to John Bell, a regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford and the U.K. government’s life sciences advisor.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on Tuesday, Bell analyzed data from the U.K., where cases are breaking records and hospital admissions are at their highest since March. He said that the number of people in ICUs who are vaccinated remains “very, very low.”
“The incidence of severe disease and death from this disease [Covid] has basically not changed since we all got vaccinated and that’s really important to remember,” he told the BBC.
“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago — intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely — that is now history in my view and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue.”
Discussing the new omicron variant, he added: “The disease does appear to be less severe, and many people spend a relatively short time in hospital. They don’t need high-flow oxygen, average length of stay is apparently three days, this is not the same disease as we were seeing a year ago.”
A U.K. government study published Thursday said that people are far less likely to be admitted to the hospital with the Covid omicron variant than with the previous delta strain.
The U.K. Health Security Agency said individuals with omicron are estimated to be between 31% and 45% less likely to attend emergency departments compared with those with delta, and 50% to 70% less likely to require admission to a hospital.
The analysis is “preliminary and highly uncertain” owing to the small numbers of omicron cases currently in hospitals, but it does tally with similar findings from scientists in South Africa and research teams at Imperial College London and the University of Edinburgh.
Although the number of daily deaths remains low and initial research suggests that the omicron variant is not as severe as other Covid strains, health experts have repeatedly warned that the sheer number of infections could lead to mounting fatalities and an overwhelmed health-care system.
Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, told CNBC via email last week that even if omicron does prove to be “milder” than other strains, the potential caseload could double or triple the number of people needing hospitalization in the U.K., where the virus is rampant — with particular risk to the unvaccinated.
More
Always borrow money from a pessimist. He won’t expect it back.
Oscar Wilde.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Next, more alas and alack, Fed Chairman Powell’s “transitory” inflation looks to have become permanent! A Republican landslide next November?
Brexit red tape: More disruption to food supplies looming as EU is ‘not prepared’ for new UK import rules that take effect on 1 January
Wednesday 29 December 2021 11:49 am
The food industry is warning of more disruption to food supplies when new UK import rules take effect this Saturday.
From 1 January, importers must make a full customs declaration on goods entering the UK from the EU or other countries.
Traders will no longer be able to delay completing full import customs declarations for up to 175 days, a measure that was introduced to cope with the disruption of Brexit.
The UK imports five times the amount of food than it exports to the EU, so, the potential for massive delays and food supply issues in January is high.
Richard Harrow, the chief executive of the British Frozen Food Federation, warns new border controls on animal and plant products from the EU could see major delays at ports in the New Year.
“Whilst the new UK rules will be introduced in stages, we are concerned that not enough planning has been done to ensure the new requirements are understood by everyone in the food supply chain,” Harrow said.
A good example of this is a new HMRC process called Goods Vehicle Management System (GVMS). The system is designed to enable HMRC to keep a track of loads containing meat and plant products in fast-moving roll-on-roll off ports such as Dover.
“The system requires haulage companies to pre-lodge the arrival of a load to the UK before it departs from the EU port of embarkation.
He added: “Whilst the UK authorities have said they will not stop vehicles that do not complete all the documents correctly, this assumes the EU port will allow a vehicle without the correct paperwork to leave port.”
More
Chinese New Year threatens to further disrupt the global supply chain as smaller shippers in China suspend services for the holidays earlier than usual
Wed, December 29, 2021, 2:17 AM
Some shipping companies are suspending services in China ahead of the new year, further straining global supply chains heading in to 2022.
The potential disruption this year is exacerbated by two factors: This year, Chinese New Year falls on February 1, 2022 — a full 12 days earlier than in 2021. And, as Bloomberg reported in November, China's Covid-zero policy has sailors anticipating longer than usual quarantine periods before they can make their way back on land. In some cases, the outlet found, sailors were required to serve up to seven weeks in quarantine before being cleared to return home.
The new timeline is being especially felt in China's southern manufacturing hub, where independent shipping providers service the region. Many — which would have typically taken off around two week before Chinese New Year in a pre-pandemic climate — have already begun winding down business for the year in anticipation of the holiday.
As a result, major global shippers, including Ocean Network Express and Hapag-Lloyd, have already halted new container bookings to smaller ports in South China.
The longer-than-usual suspension of feeder services could have a knock-on impact on the global supply chain, as cargo to and from smaller Chinese ports may surge earlier than usual.
"Some of this might be redirected onto land transportation once the feeder capacity decline, which can give rise to shortage of capacity on the landside also for shippers only using the large ports in the region," said Lars Jensen, CEO of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, in a post on LinkedIn.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-threatens-further-disrupt-global-021728841.html
Inflation emerging as top economic challenge in 2022
Rachel Siegel, Laura Reiley December 29, 2021
Strong consumer demand, continuing supply chain troubles and the emergence of the omicron variant of the coronavirus threaten to prolong sharply rising prices well into 2022, potentially making inflation the premier economic challenge of the new year.
Prices defied many economists’ expectations in 2021 by rising at the fastest pace in nearly 40 years. Everything from rent to the price of used cars to groceries climbed higher as the nation’s economy has recovered from the pandemic.
That caused pain for consumers — eating into sizable wage gains. It also caused headaches for the Federal Reserve, which had forecast much less inflation, and the White House, which faced concerns even from some Democrats about whether plans for more federal spending would drive inflation higher still.
Now, companies and economists are bracing for inflation continuing into the new year.
Citing the higher costs of ingredients, transportation logjams, labor shortages and higher wages, many food manufacturers announced price increases for 2022. Rents are locking in at higher prices as the broader housing market soars. Vehicle production, still strapped by the global microchip shortage, means prices for new and used cars aren’t settling down soon.
“Regardless of how you look at it, inflation is going to be with us for a good period of time,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a global accounting and finance firm.
Whether higher prices settle down within a few months will prove a key test economically and politically. If inflation doesn’t calm down, the Fed’s plan for a gradual withdrawal of economic support — including three interest rate hikes, perhaps as early as spring — may look inadequate or operate with a lag. And the White House will be looking at a midterms campaign in which Republicans are primed to pounce on inflation.
The beginning of the year is unlikely to bring much relief.
More
I’ve got all the money I’ll ever need, if I die by four o’clock.
Henny Youngman.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Yet more, alas and alack! Will President Biden’s half a billion test kits issue millions of false negatives?
Rapid COVID tests are worse at detecting Omicron, FDA says, citing new lab data
Wed, December 29, 2021, 11:09 AM
Rapid antigen tests appear less sensitive to Omicron than previous variants, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Tuesday.
"Early data suggests that antigen tests do detect the Omicron variant but may have reduced sensitivity," the FDA said.
The statement is based on laboratory findings, which are generally less dependable than clinical trial results.
But because clinical trials take a lot longer, laboratory findings are the "best way to evaluate true test performance in the short-term," per the FDA.
People can still use the rapid tests — which are cheaper and more convenient — but should be aware of their shortcomings, the FDA said.
A follow-up PCR test is more much reliable and should be used by people who have symptoms, or know they have been exposed to the coronavirus, per the FDA.
The news came as the White House prepares to distribute 500,000 free rapid COVID-19 tests and make over-the-counter kits free starting January.
How well the tests perform against Omicron has been debated widely as the new variant surged around the world.
The UK Health Security Agency previously said there was "no change in performance" of these tests against Omicron. This was also the position espoused by the FDA one week ago.
The latest run of experiments changed the agency's mind. In that batch , the FDA used live virus taken from patient samples, which is a better proxy for what is happening in the real world.
"Although the data is preliminary, the FDA believes it is important to share with the public," Stephanie Caccomo, an FDA spokesperson, told Politico.
"We will continue to keep the public informed if additional information comes to light."
Rapid tests are generally less sensitive
Even before this latest variant emerged, rapid tests were known to be hit and miss.
One review found that these tests were 58% accurate for those who didn't have symptoms and 72% accurate for those who did, Insider previously reported.
Timing of testing is also crucial, as it takes a couple of days for the virus to spread enough in the body to be picked up by a test, Insider's Hilary Brueck and Shayanne Gal previously reported.
More.
https://news.yahoo.com/rapid-covid-tests-worse-detecting-110920140.html
WHO: global COVID cases up 11% last week, omicron risk high
The World Health Organization says the number of COVID-19 cases recorded worldwide increased by 11% last week compared with the previous week, with the biggest increase in the Americas
29 December 2021, 10:26
BERLIN -- The World Health Organization says the number of COVID-19 cases recorded worldwide increased by 11% last week compared with the previous week, with the biggest increase in the Americas. The gain followed a gradual increase since October.
The U.N. health agency said in its weekly epidemiological report released late Tuesday that there were nearly 4.99 million newly reported cases around the world from Dec. 20-26.
Europe accounted for more than half the total, with 2.84 million, though that amounted to only a 3% increase over the previous week. It also had the highest infection rate of any region, with 304.6 new cases per 100,000 residents.
WHO said that new cases in the Americas were up 39% to nearly 1.48 million, and the region had the second-highest infection rate with 144.4 new cases per 100,000 residents. The U.S. alone saw more than 1.18 million cases, a 34% increase.
Reported new cases in Africa were up 7% to nearly 275,000.
The agency said that “the overall risk related to the new variant … omicron remains very high.” It cited “consistent evidence” that it has a growth advantage over the delta variant, which remains dominant in parts of the world.
It noted that a decline in case incidence has been seen in South Africa, and that early data from that country, the U.K. and Denmark suggest a reduced risk of hospitalization with omicron. But it said that more data is needed “to understand the clinical markers of severity including the use of oxygen, mechanical ventilation and death, and how severity may be impacted by vaccination and/or prior … infection.”
WHO said that the number of newly reported deaths worldwide last week was down 4% to 44,680.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/global-covid-cases-11-week-omicron-risk-high-81982581
U.S. coronavirus cases hit new high, hospitalizations creep up
December 29, 2021 8:22 PM GMT
Dec 29 (Reuters) - The average number of daily confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States hit a record high of 258,312 over the past seven days, a Reuters tally showed on Wednesday, as U.S. officials weigh the impact of the more transmissible Omicron variant.
The previous peak for the seven-day moving average was 250,141 confirmed cases recorded on Jan. 8 of this year. Daily records were broken this week in at least seven European nations. read more
The surge comes as Americans travel over the holidays. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled across the country each day since Christmas as airline staff test positive for the coronavirus. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it was monitoring 86 cruise ships that have reported COVID-19 cases.
While some data from other countries showed less disease with Omicron, it was too early to gauge the impact across the United States, particularly given its uneven vaccination rates, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said on Wednesday.
Still, she noted in a call with reporters that while the seven-day daily average of positive cases is up 60% over the previous week, the hospitalization rate for the same period is up only 14%, to about 9,000 per day. Deaths were down about 7% to 1,100 per day, she said. read more
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-coronavirus-cases-hit-record-high-2021-12-29/
France hit by 'dizzying' daily record of over 200,000 new COVID-19 cases
December 29, 2021 3:25 PM GMT
PARIS, Dec 29 (Reuters) - France is seeing a "tsunami" of COVID-19 infections, with 208,000 cases reported over the past 24 hours, a new national and European record, Health Minister Olivier Veran told lawmakers on Wednesday.
France has been breaking infection records repeatedly over the past few days, with Tuesday's 180,000 cases already the highest for a country in Europe, according to data on Covidtracker.fr.
"This means that 24 hours a day, day and night, every second in our country, two French people are diagnosed positive," Veran said. "We have never experienced such a situation," he said, describing the increase in cases as "dizzying".
Global COVID-19 infections have hit record highs over the past seven days, Reuters data showed on Wednesday, as the new Omicron variant spread rapidly, keeping many workers at home and overwhelming testing centres. read more
More
Ireland smashes daily COVID-19 case record
December 29, 2021 7:42 PM GMT
DUBLIN, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Ireland became the latest country to smash its previous record number of daily COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, reporting 16,428 new infections as those requiring treatment in hospital also began to rise, the health department said.
That topped the 11,182 reported on Dec. 24 with the fast- spreading Omicron accounting for almost all cases and making tests hard to come by. There are 568 coronavirus patients in hospital, sharply up on the Dec. 25 two-month low of 378.
The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital peaked at just over 2,000 in January during Ireland's deadliest wave when a barely manageable 221 filled almost every intensive care bed in the country. 93 patients currently require critical care.
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ireland-smashes-daily-covid-19-case-record-2021-12-29/
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Finally, you guessed it, more alas and alack. Is China’s space technology about to surpass America’s?
China's small Beijing-3 satellite can take high resolution images of US cities within seconds, a speed its American counterparts can't match, scientists say
Wed, December 29, 2021, 6:13 AM
· The Beijing-3 snapped hi-res images of a 1,470 square mile area of the US in 42 seconds.
· The satellite can rotate rapidly in orbit without compromising image quality, researchers said.
· This unprecedented feat means China can scan large areas in a single sweep, all in high definition.
A small, one-ton Chinese satellite can quickly snap high-resolution images of US cities that are so detailed they can identify individual military vehicles and the weapons they carry, Chinese scientists involved in the Beijing-3 satellite project said Tuesday.
The commercial Beijing-3 satellite, launched by China in June, conducted an in-depth scan of a 1,470-square mile area in the San Francisco Bay. The satellite captured the area within 42 seconds, The South China Morning Post first reported, citing results published this month in the Chinese peer-reviewed journal "Spacecraft Engineering."
Beijing-3 has a unique advantage up its sleeve: It can pitch and yaw at up to 10 degrees per second while not compromising image quality as it orbits the Earth, said lead scientist Yang Fang, who headed the project run by DFH Satellite Company under the Chinese Academy of Space and Technology.
Normally, satellite cameras have to be kept still when they take high definition images, and thus can only observe straight strips of land as they orbit above the area. So they sometimes have to fly over a region multiple times to scan the whole area, or work in tandem with other satellites.
The Beijing-3's maneuverability means it only needs a single sweep to observe entire regions, such as the 3,915 mile-long Yangtze River, the longest river in Asia that winds from China's east coast to the western Tibetan plateau, the researchers said in a CCTV-13 broadcast segment.
If the Beijing-3 is equipped with artificial intelligence, it can potentially observe up to 500 areas around the world with up to 100 revisits a day, they added, according to The Post.
Still, the quality of the Beijing-3's imagery isn't sharp enough to rival American-developed satellites like the Worldview-4, which was built by Lockheed Martin and could capture images at a resolution of 12 inches per pixel.
Beijing-3 can snap images with a resolution of 20 inches per pixel at best. But its researchers said the Chinese satellite's response time is around two to three times faster than that of Worldview-4 — which was retired in 2019, less than three years after its 2016 launch because of a failure in its stabilizing system.
The report on Beijing-3 comes amid rising concerns in the US that China's space technology is growing at a breakneck pace. General David Thompson, vice chief of space operations in the US Space Force, warned earlier this month that China could overtake the US in space capabilities by 2030.
"The fact, that in essence, on average, they are building and fielding and updating their space capabilities at twice the rate we are means that very soon, if we don't start accelerating our development and delivery capabilities, they will exceed us," Thompson said, per CNN, adding that it could happen as soon as 2030.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinas-small-beijing-3-satellite-061348859.html
“I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact.”
Elon Musk.
