Baltic Dry Index. 1476 -27 Brent Crude 57.76
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
We open with more on
the preamble to renewed war on the Korean peninsula. Both parties are still
talking themselves into a war that no one wants but can’t seem to stop.
While
the drift towards war gets top billing, Spain’s drift towards chaos, is close
behind. The EUSSR, still including John Bull, seems in a death spiral. Can
things get much worse than this? Yes, UK voters are flirting with electing a
party of communists and terrorist enablers, if the polls are anywhere near
correct. Things can get a whole lot worse yet.
September 28, 2017 / 2:37 AM /
Updated 11 minutes ago
South Korea expects more North Korea provocations mid-October
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea expects North Korea to engage in more
provocative action next month to coincide with the anniversary of the founding
of its communist party and China’s all-important Communist Party Congress.
In a meeting with President Moon Jae-in on Thursday, national security
adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18,
but gave no details.
“(Chung’s report) also said there are worries over military conflict
being sparked by accidental incidents,” said Park Wan-ju, lawmaker and head
spokesman of the ruling Democratic Party.
“The president said the United States speaks of military and diplomatic
options, but South Korea can’t go through war again.”
Tensions on the Korean peninsula have escalated in recent weeks as North
Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump exchange bellicose
threats and insults over the North’s nuclear and missile development programme.
The North has accused Trump of declaring war after he warned Kim’s
regime would not last if he persisted in threatening the United States and its
allies, having earlier warned North Korea would be totally destroyed in such an
event.
Pyongyang conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test on Sept. 3 and
has launched dozens of missiles this year as it accelerates a programme aimed
at enabling it to target the United States with a nuclear-tipped missile.
The United States and South Korea are technically still at war with
North Korea because the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended with a truce and not a
peace treaty.
More
September 27, 2017 / 8:26 AM /
Updated 4 hours ago
China says military means not an option to resolve Korea situation
BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Wednesday the North Korean nuclear
issue should be resolved through dialogue, and that military means were not an
option, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned North Korea that any U.S.
military option would be “devastating”.
Bellicose statements by Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in
recent weeks have created fears that a miscalculation could lead to action with
untold ramifications, particularly since Pyongyang conducted its sixth and most
powerful nuclear test on Sept. 3.
Speaking at a daily news briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu
Kang reiterated that China has all along upheld the aim of the denuclearisation
of the Korean peninsula and protecting the international nuclear
non-proliferation system.
“At the same we are resolute in working for the protection of the
peninsula’s peace and stability and uphold a peaceful resolution for the
nuclear issue via dialogue and consultation,” Lu said.
Up next, prepare for
chaos in the dying, unloved EUSSR. Spain in just 4 days away from tearing
itself apart. The new German coalition, if formed, must attempt to square the
circle. France is bracing for a winter of industrial discontent.
We open with
Bloomberg’s complacent view of what’s to come on Sunday and most of next week.
What Spain Secession Vote Means to Investors and What's to Come
By Todd White and John Ainger
On Oct. 1, Catalonia will try to stage an illegal separatist referendum.
For investors, it’s all about the aftermath -- and that may include Spain’s
biggest regional economy declaring itself an independent republic.
Central government authorities in Madrid are doing what they can to
suppress the plebiscite, meaning that actual voting may be confined mostly to
small towns and pockets of cities where police are scant or empathetic.
The notion that only 16 percent of the nation’s population could reduce
Spain’s borders and escape its laws and tax obligations is not what concerns
investors. Instead, it’s what the secessionists do next. Catalan President
Carles Puigdemont has suggested the separatist-led regional government may
declare a split from Spain within days of the vote result.
Here’s how markets are most likely to react to possible outcomes after
the Sunday referendum, according to interviews with investors and strategists:
----SCENARIO 4: Chaos after rule of law challenged
“Referendums are like kryptonite for currencies,” said Kathleen Brooks,
research director at trading firm City Index in London, referring to the
fictional material that weakened Superman. “If the market sees chaos, where no
one really knows what’s going on, the euro could potentially fall 1 percent to
2 percent, and the bond spread would shoot up. If we had a very large move --
100 basis points – the would hurt the currency even more.”
In a chaotic situation “I would expect very large spread-widening, and
some bear flattening at the front-end of the curve,” meaning short-term yields
spike relative to longer ones, SocGen’s Thoumin said. Spain’s yield spread over
Germany on 10-year debt could widen to between 350-400 basis points from about
120 now, depending on any reaction from the ECB.
“The markets are wondering: can Catalonia be independent by the end of
the year?” said Natixis’s Gallardo. “The short answer is no.”
September 27, 2017 / 8:09 AM /
Updated 9 hours ago
Schaeuble to head German parliament, unblocking coalition talks
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany took a first decisive step on Wednesday
towards forming a new government when its veteran finance minister,
conservative Wolfgang Schaeuble, agreed to become president of the parliament,
clearing the way for another party to take his job.
Chancellor Angela Merkel will hope that Schaeuble, deeply respected in
Germany for helping to steer the euro zone through its debt crisis, can stamp
his authority on a fractious Bundestag lower house that will include two more
parties after Sunday’s federal election.
Merkel must assemble Germany’s first three-way coalition since the 1950s
after her conservatives lost support and a far-right party, the anti-immigrant
Alternative for Germany (AfD), entered parliament for the first time in half a
century.
----Merkel’s most realistic coalition option now is a deal with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), returning to parliament after a four-year hiatus, and the Greens.
But the parties disagree on issues such as energy, Europe and migration,
complicating the path to a so-called ‘Jamaica’ coalition - a reference to the
parties’ colours: black, yellow and green, which are also those of the Jamaican
flag.
More
We close today with
more on the continuing problems of hurricane devastated Puerto Rico. Who knew
that much of the world relies on Puerto Rico for critical drugs. Short term
there doesn’t seem to be a problem, but longer term it depends on getting
production back to normal again. That requires transport back to normal so key
employees and the workforce can show up. Tax breaks drove much of the drug
production to Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Maria devastation in Puerto Rico could cause drug shortages elsewhere
Published: Sept 27, 2017 8:01 a.m. ET
Important lifesaving drugs and devices are manufactured in Puerto Rico, and critical shortages could occur
Hurricane Maria’s devastation in Puerto Rico, where many drug and medical device companies have manufacturing presences, has created the possibility of drug shortages in and out of the territory.Dozens of health-care manufacturing facilities that supply products globally are located in Puerto Rico, manufacturing “critical lifesaving and life-sustaining drugs” such as cancer drugs, immunosuppressants used for organ transplants and medical devices used by diabetics, according to the Food and Drug Administration.
The regulator has taken “swift and extensive efforts to prevent or limit the loss or shortage of multiple drugs critical to American patients” since Friday, including relocating products, according to a statement this week.
However, the FDA said there are “several other instances where we may soon face critical shortages if we don’t find a path for removal or ways to get production up and running.”
Since Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico last week, the U.S. commonwealth has lost drinkable water, a majority of its crops and electricity; its governor said this week that the situation was nearly a “humanitarian crisis.” Damage could total more than $30 billion and set Puerto Rico back decades, according to the territory’s Resident Commissioner Jenniffer Gonzalez.
Puerto Rico’s health-care manufacturing presences suggest the devastation could have wide-ranging impacts for patients globally, too.
----The drugmaker Amgen Inc. AMGN, -0.39% , which has manufacturing facilities in Puerto Rico and employs more than 2,000 individuals in the territory, said on Monday that it does not expect the hurricane to cause an interruption to drug supply, at least in part because the drugmaker has kept enough inventory to meet patient demand.
No product or in-process inventory was lost in the hurricane’s aftermath, the company said, and the hurricane did not “significantly” impact key manufacturing areas in its Juncos, Puerto Rico facility.
Another drugmaker, AbbVie Inc. ABBV, -0.70% , said that its Puerto Rico manufacturing facilities were “intact and operational,” thanks to an independent power generator, and that it expects Hurricane Maria will have “no patient impact.” The company has 1,200 employees in Puerto Rico.
Health-care manufacturing could play an important role in facilitating the recovery of Puerto Rico’s economy, the FDA said, noting that the pharmaceutical industry alone accounts for nearly 90,000 jobs in the territory.
The SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF XPH, +1.62% declined 1% in Tuesday trade. Shares have dropped 4.5% over the last three months, compared with a 2.5% rise in the S&P 500 SPX, +0.41% .
September 27, 2017 / 7:50 PM /
Updated an hour ago
Puerto Rico seeks waiver of shipping restrictions to speed hurricane relief
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (Reuters) - Puerto Rico officials pressed the
Trump administration on Wednesday to lift a ban on foreign shipping between
American ports while the U.S. island territory struggled with fuel, water and
medical shortages one week after Hurricane Maria struck.
Even as federal emergency management authorities and the U.S. military
stepped up relief efforts, many residents on the island of 3.4 million people
voiced exasperation at the prolonged lack of electricity, reliable drinking
supplies and other essentials.
Maria, the most powerful hurricane to hit Puerto Rico in nearly 90
years, swept across the island with roof-ripping winds last Wednesday, knocking
out the territory’s entire power grid, unleashing severe flooding and causing
widespread heavy damage to homes and infrastructure.
The storm claimed more than 30 lives across the Caribbean, including at
least 16 in Puerto Rico. Governor Ricardo Rossello called the devastation an
unprecedented natural disaster.
Medical experts said they were concerned about a looming public health
crisis posed by the island’s crippled water and sewage treatment system. The
delivery of relief supplies has been complicated by communication outages and
roads still damaged by flooding or left impassable by fallen trees, wires and
debris.
Desperate residents have waited hours in long lines for deliveries of
diesel fuel to power generators and gasoline to refill empty automobile tanks.
Some water-supply trucks have been mobbed.
----On Wednesday the governor and others pushed Trump to temporarily waive the Jones Act, a law requiring that all goods shipped between U.S. ports be carried by U.S. owned-and-operated vessels.
Administration officials on Tuesday balked at the idea, saying there was
sufficient shipping capacity for emergency deliveries to Puerto Rico in the
U.S. merchant fleet, but Trump said on Wednesday that a waiver was under
consideration.
September 27, 2017 / 7:50 PM /
Updated 6 hours ago
Cash demand soars in Puerto Rico after hurricane hit ATMs, card systems
NEW YORK/SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (Reuters) - Demand for cash in hurricane-ravaged
Puerto Rico is “extraordinarily high” after power outages knocked out
electronic transactions and ATMs but needs were being met for now, a Federal
Reserve branch said on Wednesday.
Residents and tourists were counting their dwindling banknotes in the
wake of Hurricane Maria, which crippled the electrical grid and communications
network, turning the Caribbean island into a largely cash-based economy.
The New York branch of the U.S. central bank, which oversees and makes
funds available to Puerto Rico’s financial institutions, said it was prepared
for another surge in cash demand and could rush more banknotes to the island if
necessary.
ATMs are slowly re-opening a week after Maria, the most powerful
hurricane to hit Puerto Rico in 90 years, caused widespread flooding and badly
damaged homes, roads and other infrastructure on the island of 3.4 million.
The New York Fed’s cash distribution operations were working and it had
adequate stocks to meet the needs of lenders and other firms on the U.S.
territory, a spokeswoman told Reuters.
“Demand for cash is extraordinarily high right now, and will evolve
as depository institutions regain power, armored car services are able to reach
branches, and ATMs are once again active,” the spokeswoman said.
----Cash is just one of the scarce resources on Puerto Rico, which faces shortages of fuel, water and medical supplies after Maria.
With electricity and internet down in Yauco, southwestern
Puerto Rico, Nancy and Caesar Nieve said they could not access paychecks
directly deposited into their bank accounts.
“What are we going to do when we don’t have any cash? The
little cash we have, we have to save for gas,” said Nancy.
Cash demand spiked in the first few days after the hurricane
as merchants were unable to accept other modes of payment.
First BanCorp (FBP.N),
one of the island’s top banks, said around 28 of its 48 branches remained
closed but electronic transactions were resuming and about 25 percent of its
ATMs were back online as power and telecommunications were restored.
More
Comrade Corbyn’s New
Communist Labour Party: “Are you a student, moslem, policeman, fireman,
immigrant, NHS worker, remainiac, woman, or a person on benefits? Have we got an unfunded,
aspirational bribe for you!
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, when success is too successful. The story of our 21st century
grain revolution.
September 27, 2017 / 12:17 PM /
Updated an hour ago
Special Report - Drowning in grain: How Big Ag sowed seeds of a profit-slashing glut
CARMAN, Manitoba (Reuters) - On Canada’s fertile Prairies, dominated by the yellows and golds of canola and wheat, summers are too short to grow corn on a major scale.But Monsanto Co (MON.N) is working to develop what it hopes will be North America’s fastest-maturing corn, allowing farmers to grow more in Western Canada and other inhospitable climates, such as Ukraine.
The seed and chemical giant projects that western Canadian corn plantings could multiply 20 times to 10 million acres by 2025 - adding some 1.1 billion bushels, or nearly 3 percent to current global production.
The question, amid historically high supplies and low grain prices, is whether the world really needs more corn.
A global grains glut is now in its fourth year, with supplies bloated by favourable weather, increasingly high-tech farm practices and tougher plant breeds.
The bin-busting harvests of cheap corn, wheat and soybeans are undermining the business models of the world’s largest agriculture firms and the farmers who use their products and services. Some analysts say the firms have effectively innovated their way into a stubbornly oversupplied market.
Never has the world produced so much more food than can be consumed in one season. World ending stocks of total grains - the leftover supplies before a new harvest - have climbed for four straight years and are poised to reach a record 638 million tonnes in 2016/17, according to USDA data.
Farmers and agriculture firms could once count on periodic bouts of crop-destroying weather to tame gluts and drive up prices. But genetically modified crops that repel plant-chewing insects, withstand lethal chemicals and mature faster have made the trend toward oversupply more resistant to traditional boom-and-bust agrarian cycles, experts say.
Another key factor: China - the world’s second-biggest corn grower - adopted stockpiling policies a decade ago when crop supplies ran thin, resulting in greater production than the world needs.
“I think the norm is where we are now,” said Bryan Agbabian, director of agriculture equities at Allianz Global Investors.
---- Abundant supplies have helped lower food prices across the world, but the benefit to consumers and impoverished nations is muted by several factors, including problems with corruption and distribution of food in developing regions, said Sylvain Charlebois, professor of food distribution and policy at Canada’s Dalhousie University.
The bumper harvests may actually harm poor communities more than they
benefit their residents in food savings because lower prices depress farm
incomes in the same areas, said John Baffes, a senior economist at the World
Bank.
Even as farmers reap bountiful harvests, U.S. net farm incomes this year
will total $63.4 billion - about half of their earnings in 2013, according to a
U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast.
More
He
may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot but don't let that fool you.
Comrade Corbyn really is an idiot.
With
apologies to Groucho Marx
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
This summer was greenest ever for energy, says National Grid
Carbon emissions pushed to lowest level yet as first subsidy-free large solar power project opens in the UK
Tuesday 26 September 2017 00.01 BST
The UK has set a new landmark for clean energy after the National Grid
announced that the electricity powering the UK’s homes and businesses this
summer was the greenest ever.
The record comes as the first subsidy-free large solar power project
opens in the UK, in what the government described as a significant moment for
the energy sector.
Analysis by National Grid of power generation showed that a combination
of solar, wind and nuclear – and an absence of coal – pushed carbon emissions
to their lowest level yet over the season.
Between 21 June and 22 September, the carbon intensity of the grid – as
measured in grammes of C02 emitted per KWh of power generated – was more than
halved from its level over the same period four years ago.
This summer, nearly 52% of power came from low-carbon
sources, compared with 35% in 2013.
A growing number of solar and windfarms, coupled with nuclear and gas power stations, have transformed summer power supply and broken new records. On one Friday in May, solar panels even briefly provided more power than the UK’s nuclear fleet.
Duncan Burt, director of the system operator at National Grid, said: “It’s been a summer of records. The big fundamental shift has been the continuing growth in offshore wind and solar coming on.
“We’ve gone from renewables being a part of the mix to often being a significant, majority part of the mix.”
He added that while the group would have liked to have seen some windier, sunnier days in August, it had coped with the challenge of managing intermittent power sources such as wind and expected the trend to continue.
While
National Grid said that handling the amount of variable, renewable power on the
system is not adding to consumer costs at the moment, studies have shown a much
higher penetration of green energy could result in higher bills. A report by the UK
Energy Research Centre earlier this year warned that balancing intermittent
wind and solar would increase costs if the grid is not made more flexible with
new measures, such as battery storage.
National Grid has launched a new forecast of the grid’s carbon intensity, to help householders see the most environmentally friendly time to use appliances such as washing machines, or to charge an electric car. The best times to keep emissions down while making a cup of tea on Tuesday, for instance, are forecast to be at 1am, 2.30pm and 11.30pm.
In a further boost for green energy the climate minister, Claire Perry, on Tuesday will officially open a solar farm in Bedfordshire that has been billed as the first subsidy-free one of its kind in the UK. Perry hailed it as “a significant moment for clean energy in the UK”.
Installations
of large-scale solar farms crashed after the
government ended subsidies in the spring of 2016, but the developer of the new
facility near Flitwick believes that energy storage has made them financially
viable, even without state support.
More
Aw, you can come up
with statistics to prove anything, Comrade Corbyn. Forty percent of all British
people know that.
With apologies to
Homer Simpson.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 21,948 +215 Up. NASDAQ: 6,429 +266 Up. SP500: 2,472 +174 Up.
