Friday, 17 June 2011

Sunday Showdown For Greece.

Baltic Dry Index. 1424 +19

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.

"More than any other time in history, Greece faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray they have the wisdom to choose correctly."

With apologies Woody Allen

Below, two different views on the fate of the serfs of Greece. In version one, they bravely stand against the invading hordes of Persians, sorry Brussels bureaucrats, ECB bean counters, and IMF perverts, and send them packing, causing rout among the European bankster class. In version two, far more likely, Greeks are enslaved by their own government this coming Sunday, and sold into eternal penury for a 12 billion tranche of IMF cash. European banksters rejoice and collect another round of telephone number bonuses. And all just in time for the half year bonus pool too.

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie."

Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar

June 17, 2011, 12:00 a.m. EDT

Stop the Greek hostage crisis!

Commentary: Will everyone please stop lying about crisis in Europe?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — This isn’t about “bailing out Greece.” Yes, the Greeks owe about $500 billion, but they already have spent the money.

This is about bailing out the banks that lent to them.

The biggest creditors are French banks. The second biggest are the Germans. The third biggest are the British. I’ll bet a lot of Greek bonds are now held by hedge funds.

These are the people asking for public funds.

What’s happening in Europe right now isn’t a financial crisis. It’s a hostage crisis.

Once again, we are all being held hostage by a bunch of bankers. “Give us a bailout,” they’re saying, “or else the economy gets it!”

Maybe it’s time to call their bluff.

Perhaps Europe should let Greece default. Let it go bust. Force the bond holders to take their losses.

If you invest in a stock that falls, you don’t get made whole.

If you buy bonds in a company or institution that collapses, you don’t get your money back. So why here?

They call it “risk capital” for a reason.

More

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stop-the-greek-hostage-crisis-2011-06-17

Greek debt crisis: billions more will be pumped in to rescue Greece

The International Monetary Fund is preparing to pump more money into Greece’s stricken economy in an attempt to calm turmoil on the financial markets.

By Robert Winnett, Deputy Political Editor 6:30AM BST 17 Jun 2011

The IMF said it stood “ready to continue its support” for the country providing the government introduced far-reaching economic reforms. It was threatening to withhold support for Greece, which was due to be paid next month, but this is now thought unlikely.

A new bail-out package, the second in 13 months, is expected to be agreed over the next few weeks.

The European Union’s top economic official, Olli Rehn, said he expected the EU and the IMF to release a €12 billion loan in early July to keep Greece solvent.

Greece was warned last night that it must introduce austerity cuts and not default on repayments on its emergency bail-out loan as a condition of the new deal.

Fears that Greece was about to default on repaying its debts rocked financial markets yesterday.

Last night the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, announced a cabinet reshuffle and said he would put himself forward for a vote of confidence as he seeks to force through spending cuts and tax rises against widespread opposition.

An attempt to form a national unity government has failed. The country has been blighted by strikes and riots this week while several politicians have resigned in protest at the proposed austerity drive.

Greece’s credit rating has been cut to the lowest in the world and its debts are now regarded as less secure than those in poor developing countries. There were fears that if Greece defaults on its debt repayments, other countries such as Ireland may be tempted to follow suit, leading to another financial crisis.

More.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8580987/Greek-debt-crisis-billions-more-will-be-pumped-in-to-rescue-Greece.html

In better Greek news, fallen guru Greenspan almost made a prediction of a Greek default being inevitable. With “wrong way” Greenspan almost in the default camp, it’s almost certain that Greece won’t default in his lifetime. Still he might always surprise everyone with an almost correct call for once in his professional life.

"If only God would give me some clear sign! Like making a large deposit in my name at a Swiss Bank."

Alan Greenspan, with apologies to Woody Allen.

Default by Greece ‘Almost Certain’: Greenspan

By Vivien Lou Chen - Jun 17, 2011 12:46

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman, said a default by Greece is “almost certain” and could help drive the U.S. economy into recession.

“The problem you have is that it’s extremely unlikely the political system will work” in a way that solves Greece’s crisis, Greenspan, 85, said in an interview today with Charlie Rose in New York. “The chances of Greece not defaulting are very small.”

The chances of Greece defaulting are “so high that you almost have to say there’s no way out,” said Greenspan, who ran the central bank from 1987 to 2006. That may leave some U.S. banks “up against the wall.”

Greece’s debt crisis has the potential to push the U.S. into another recession, Greenspan said. Without the Greek issue, “the probability is quite low” of a U.S. recession, he said.

More.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/default-by-greece-almost-certain-greenspan.html

We end the week updating on drought and flood struck China. Out of mainstream news for now, China is suffering from food and fuel inflation, increasing social unrest, and increasingly restricting the amounts of the strategic metals exported that make much of modern technology and modern weaponry work. Last week, the US issued a bellicose statement on the disputed islands in the South China Sea, at least China took it as bellicose. Vietnam, one of the parties in the dispute, sought to get Uncle Sam’s military to line up on team Vietnam. Below, China consolidates its support from Eur-Asia. And beefs up its military for a coming showdown later this decade.

Chinese, Russian presidents meet for deepening strategic partnership

 

English.news.cn   2011-06-17 03:40:10

MOSCOW, June 16 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao on Thursday held talks with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, to review the achievements in bilateral relations over the past decade and plan for the development of ties in the next 10 years.

Hu pointed out that the China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership has seen unprecedented development since the two countries signed the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation in 2001.

He said the two sides have resolved border problems once and for all and become each other's most important strategic partner of cooperation.

The two sides have established proper mechanisms of regular meetings between their leaders and cooperation mechanisms between various government departments, Hu said, adding that China and Russia have signed more than 200 cooperative documents which helped improve the mechanisms and legal basis of bilateral ties.

Bilateral trade has increased from some 8 billion U.S. dollars in 2000 to nearly 60 billion dollars in 2010, and the two sides have carried out a number of large-scale cooperative projects in the areas of energy, science and technology and region-to-region cooperation, Hu said.

Meanwhile, the reciprocal staging of "Youth Friendship Years" and "Language Years" have improved the ties between the two peoples and deepened their traditional friendship, the Chinese leader said.

Hu said the two countries have jointly worked for the establishment of such regional and multilateral cooperative mechanisms as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), and also cooperated closely within the frameworks of the United Nations and the Group of 20.

Hu said the growth of China-Russia relations has promoted both sides' development and brought substantial benefits to the two peoples, and helped promote regional and world peace and stability.

Pointing out that the next decade will be a critical period for the two countries for their respective development and for deepening their partnership, Hu said China will as always take China-Russia relations as foreign policy priority.

He said China is ready to work with Russia to develop a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership featuring equality, mutual trust, mutual support, common prosperity and lasting friendship in the new decade.

Hu stressed that China will unswervingly pursue the road of peaceful development and work for the establishment of a harmonious world of long-term peace and common prosperity.

More

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-06/17/c_13934349.htm

China to beef up maritime forces

English.news.cn   2011-06-17 11:44:37

BEIJING, June 17 (Xinhuanet) --China's offshore surveillance force will be beefed up to ensure that the country's maritime interests are fully protected amid increasing disputes with its neighbors. By 2020, a total of 15,000 personnel, compared with 9,000 now, will serve in the China Maritime Surveillance (CMS) force under the State Oceanic Administration, a senior official with the CMS, who declined to be identified, told China Daily.

The CMS air arm will be increased to 16 planes and the patrol fleet will have 350 vessels during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), the official said, adding that the fleet will have more than 520 vessels by 2020。

Currently, nine aircraft, more than 260 surveillance vessels and 280 law enforcement vehicles are in operation.

The CMS launched the construction of 36 patrol ships and 54 speedboats last year, the official said.

The expansion plan was unveiled as China's biggest civilian maritime patrol ship was sent into the South China Sea to protect national "rights and sovereignty".

Haixun 31, from the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration, under the Ministry of Transport, sailed from Zhuhai, Guangdong province, on Wednesday on its way to Singapore for a two-week visit, the Xinhua News Agency said.

More

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-06/17/c_13934544.htm

We end on China with yet another reason for global stock markets to worry. Even with inflation artificially boosting the figures, consumer spending is weakening in China. China’s worrying wobble is getting bigger, it seems. Stay long physical precious metals. Turmoil in China will collapse the fiat currencies and the financialised derivatives gambling system. However unlikely, the great Chinese bubble might have hit its pin.

Consumers Fade in China Economy Racked by Inflation With ‘Peak Days’ Gone

By Bloomberg News - Jun 17, 2011 5:18 AM GMT+0100

At the Haiyang Zhuangshi Co. hardware store in Beijing, sales of paint and aluminum window frames are slowing, one sign of a diminished role for consumer spending in China that’s foiling government objectives.

“It seems the peak days are gone,” said owner Hu Mengbin, 42, whose daily revenue has dropped to about 3,000 yuan ($463) from as much as 4,000 yuan last year after China stepped up efforts to rein in home prices. “Between 2006 and 2008 when the property market was red hot, we could make quick money.”

Hu’s loss underlines the dilemma for Premier Wen Jiabao: his campaign to control inflation is undermining attempts to make consumers a bigger driver of the world’s second-largest economy. Failure to lessen dependence on exports and investment spending leaves the nation more vulnerable to swings in external demand and subject to asset booms and busts.

Government data this week showed retail sales growth slowed to 16.9 percent in May, less than the average of the past five years and a figure that’s inflated by soaring prices for food. By contrast, spending on fixed assets such as factories and property climbed 26 percent, excluding rural households, in the first five months, the fastest pace in almost a year.

“Consumption hasn’t taken off,” said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. “What has happened is a shift from exports to investment as a driver of growth.”

Record Low

Analysts at Capital Economics, a London-based research group, estimate that private consumption may have fallen to 34 percent of gross domestic product last year, the lowest level since China began opening its economy to market mechanisms more than three decades ago. Just 10 years ago, the share was 46 percent, Capital Economics calculates.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/consumers-fade-in-china-economy-racked-by-inflation-with-peak-days-gone.html

"We are not discussing the exit of Greece from the euro area. This is a stupid idea and an avenue we would never take."

Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Self Admitted Liar.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 27.97 Moz, Eligible 71.33 Moz, Total 99.30 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, those inscrutable Chinese have been learning from Wall Street. According to a mistakenly released Chinese report, about a 1,000 Chinese officials a year make off with about a billion dollars collectively, and set up a new life in the west. Shocking, absolutely shocking.

June 17, 2011, 1:17 a.m. EDT

China central bank finds officials stole billions

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Corrupt Chinese officials and employees of state-owned companies have absconded with about 800 billion yuan ($123.7 billion) of public money over 15 years through 2008, much of it making its way to the U.S., Canada, Australia and the Netherlands, according to Chinese news reports citing a central bank study.

The 67-page report, completed in 2008, was posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website this week, purportedly by mistake, and has since been taken down, although PDFs of the document are circulating in cyberspace.

In the report, which appears never to have been intended for public release, the PBOC estimated about 16,000 to 18,000 individuals have fled the country with ill-gotten funds over a 15-year period leading up to the report’s release, according to news-media accounts.

The PBOC focused upon where people went and how they got the embezzled funds out of the country.

One method, the study was cited as saying, was with the help of family or other trusted individuals who emigrated overseas, often using fake documents.

The report was also cited as saying some of the money was smuggled into the former Portuguese colony of Macau, now the world’s biggest gambling hub, where it was laundered through casinos and then used to fund lavish lifestyles abroad.

Once reported anecdote involved the case of Zhang Jian, a former Communist Party official in Jiangsu province, who visited Macau 48 times over a two-year period.

A report in The Australian, meanwhile, cited a passage in the central-bank study saying officials were crossing over the border at Shenzhen, bearing suitcases of bank notes “like ants moving houses.”

The PBOC said in the report it planned to work more closely with foreign governments to block the officials from escaping with looted funds. It also said it has increasingly begun to take part in international anti-money-laundering organizations.

More

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-central-bank-finds-officials-stole-billions-2011-06-17

Another weekend, and another weekend of crisis for Europe. In Greece, epicenter of the European bankster crisis, life goes on as normal. The usual parties are held, no show jobs are no showed, false tax returns are by those who bother filing at all. Hundreds of Greeks mill around the non Greek tourists panhandling Euros, dollars, Roubles, and Yen, although after Fukushima, it’s getting harder and harder to get impoverished Greek lay-abouts to take Yen. German surveyors are busy sizing up Greek islands for later transfer in the coming Greenspanian default. Have a great weekend everyone.

Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the EU, said last night that the euro would emerge stronger from the crisis.

The Telegraph June 17, 2011.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:

DJIA: +196 Up. NASDAQ: +249 Up. SP500: +200 Up.

The Dow and SP 500 and NASDAQ have all reversed from down to up. The Fed’s rigging of the indicators seems to have worked. Note: like all indicators, they were devised for normal markets not markets where the central bank is flooding the economy with new cash. In current conditions where risk is suspended by too big to fail, I doubt any indicators are showing more that where the Fed’s new cash is flowing in our world of casino capitalism. But the Fed’s QE program is supposed to end this month!!!

Thursday, 16 June 2011

World Slips on Greece.

Baltic Dry Index. 1400 -12


LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”



Adam Smith


Yesterday it was all about Greece. The tax and work shy Greek people are revolting at the idea they become debt slaves to German and French banksters, who were foolish enough to believe Goldman’s Greek accounting gimmicks, and lent money to Greece in the belief that when it all went wrong Germany would be around to pay off. The Germans are outraged at being forced to work hard and pay taxes just so feckless Greeks can swan around in sunshine all day drinking Retsina washed down with ouzo.



By now even the doziest Greek MP can see that piling more unrepayable debt on the Greek people, while tied in to the Germanic Euro, is a recipe for a future default, but only after making Greece’s sovereign debt about 100 billion greater. You cannot solve an unrepayable debt problem by piling on even more unrepayable debt. Greece needs to default and devalue to make Greece a cheap tourist destination again, to stimulate the economy and jobs, to get Greek taxes rising again. The exact opposite of what the ECB is trying to impose.



Below, the latest in the slow motion Great Greek Wreck.



"Part of the $10 billion I spent on gambling, part on booze and part on women. The rest I spent foolishly."


Greece, with apologies to George Raft.



Europe warned of financial chaos over Greek debt crisis


Greek prime minister fails to form unity government as police battle rioters in Athens and shares tumble over default fears


Thursday 16 June 2011


Greece's 18-month sovereign debt crisis brought the government to the brink of collapse as public fury over savage austerity measures erupted in pitched battles with riot police on the streets of Athens.


The escalation of the Greek crisis had instant European and global impact, sending world stocks tumbling and exposing European Union paralysis over whether and how to launch a second attempt in a year to save Greece from insolvency.


George Papandreou, the socialist prime minister, announced he would seek a vote of confidence on a new government after offering to resign and broker a new national unity coalition with opposition conservatives.


He admitted failure after intense but fruitless negotiations with the conservative New Democracy party aimed at engineering a consensus behind the massive public spending cuts and wholesale privatisation programme – moves deemed necessary to secure a second bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund


----The opposition called for Papandreou's resignation and a renegotiation of the bailout terms with the EU, the European Central Bank, and the IMF as the price for its assent to a national coalition.


Earlier, riot police clashed with tens of thousands of demonstrators protesting in the capital against the radical austerity measures being imposed to try to secure a new bailout expected to amount to around €100bn.


Following the fall of the Irish and Portuguese governments in recent months after driving their countries into bankruptcy, it appeared that the eurozone's worst crisis was claiming another scalp. Despite the heightening sense of urgency, EU governments, the ECB, and the European Commission remained gridlocked over how to respond to the debt emergency, which pushed Greece closer to sovereign default and Europe towards a fresh banking crisis


More


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/15/europe-warned-greece-financial-crisis


JUNE 16, 2011


French Banks Warned on Their Greek Debt


PARIS—Europe's sovereign-debt crisis washed closer to U.S. shores Wednesday after Moody's Investors Service warned it may downgrade three French banks that rely heavily on U.S. money funds for short-term financing.


Moody's cited the banks' exposure to Greek debt, and added that it may do the same to other euro-zone banks.


The three banks—BNP Paribas SA, Crédit Agricole SA and Société Générale SA—have all said recently that their exposure to Greece remains manageable. Analysts say a Greek default would cause them only small declines in the capital ratios used to measure financial strength. Shares in the three banks all fell 2.5% or more on Wednesday.


Still, the warning from Moody's followed heightened fears over the prospect of a disorderly Greek default, and its impact across financial markets. Investors have begun assessing the so-called contagion risk on global markets should European officials be unable to reach any agreement on how Greece's debt should be restructured.


One place many have been looking is the U.S. money markets, where massive funds buy up short-term debt of sovereign nations, banks and companies.


In recent years, some European banks have been some of the biggest borrowers in these markets. According to Fitch Ratings, as of February, 44.3% of assets at the 10 largest prime money market funds were invested in short-term loans to European banks.


More


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304186404576386872909695108.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_MIDDLETopStories


Greece poses $41 billion risk to U.S. banks


June 15, 2011, 7:01 p.m. EDT


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — While fears stirred by Greece’s deepening debt crisis raced Wednesday through global financial markets, a quick check of U.S. banks showed they risk losses on tens of billions of dollars should the Mediterranean nation default on its payments.


U.S. banks had total exposure of $41 billion to Greece by the end of 2010, according to the latest figures from the Bank for International Settlements issued June 9. Most of the financial commitments appear to be indirect.


About 83% is tied to “guarantees” that range from protection for sellers of credit derivative contracts to other obligations owed to third parties. Still the data are murky, according economic consultant Kash Mansori.


“We don’t know exactly what the form of exposure is,” said Mansori, who authors the Street Light blog. “We can only make educated guesses.”


He thinks U.S. banks are mostly exposed to Greek’s financial crisis through credit-default swaps, which essentially are insurance contracts. Mansori believes U.S. banks largely sold these deals to European banks, which own bonds issued by Greek banks and the Greek government.


More


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greece-poses-41-billion-risk-to-us-banks-2011-06-15


JUNE 15, 2011, 4:10 P.M. ET


ECB: Contagion Is Euro Zone's Top Concern


FRANKFURT—Contagion from the euro zone's debt crisis remains the top risk to financial stability in the single currency bloc, the European Central Bank warned Wednesday, reiterating its opposition to a Greek debt restructuring.


----The risk of "adverse contagion" from the bloc's sovereign debt crisis, and its interplay with the financial sector, "arguably remains the most pressing concern", the central bank said. European-level efforts to contain the debt crisis "have not been sufficient," and European crisis management has been "fraught with some detrimental shortcomings," the ECB said.


Funding risks also remain "an Achilles heel" for many banks, particularly those in fiscally stressed countries, according to the report, which noted that about 30% of bank debt will have to be refinanced in 2011 and 2012.


Other key risks cited in the report include potential losses from property price declines, an unexpected surge in long-term interest rates and asset bubbles in emerging markets.


But while the central bank said implementing Greece's fiscal reforms has grown more challenging since December, it warned that a debt restructuring could have "potentially very dangerous implications."


At a press conference, ECB vice president Vitor Constancio repeated the ECB's opposition to any restructuring that leads to a "credit event" but kept the door open to purely voluntary decisions by banks to roll over their holdings of Greek bonds.


More


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304186404576387654239078740.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews


We close for the day with the ECB’s double Dutchman Wellink. Make the European bailout fund double size at one and a half trillion euros, he says. A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon we’ve gone from a Germanic euro to a new Berlusconi lira. 400 million hapless Euro serfs were just given another reason to protect some of their wealth in physical precious metals. Little wonder many central banks have gone from being sellers of gold to buyers.



"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."



William F. Rickenbacker


ECB's Wellink Calls for Doubling of Euro Bail-Out Fund



Thursday, 16 Jun 2011


The European bail-out fund should be doubled to 1,500 billion euros ($2.15 trillion) if politicians want private sector investors to participate in a second bail-out package for Greece, a European Central Bank governing council director said.


Nout Wellink told Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad that a new Greek aid package would carry so many uncertainties and risks that a doubling in the bail-out fund would be necessary to take into account the contagion risk for both Ireland and Portugal.


"If you take these risks, you need to build a safety net," Wellink, who is also the outgoing Dutch central bank president, was quoted as saying on Thursday.


"It should go to 1,500 billion euros and there should be more flexibility in how the money can be spent." The euro (EUR-) fell to a three-week low of $1.4113 after the report.


More


http://www.cnbc.com/id/43406636


"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."



F.A. von Hayek.



At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday, final figures were: Registered 27.92 Moz, Eligible 70.89 Moz, Total 98.81 Moz. Almost 2 Million ozs left the Comex depositories yesterday, with only 28 Moz available for delivery. A silver default appears to be looming.




Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.



The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.



No crooks or scoundrels today, though there plenty of them still around in our gambling banks, hedge funds and great vampire squid community, today an old subject that regular readers are well aware of, since we’ve covered it often before. This solar sunspot cycle and the next, are both highly likely to be the weakest twin sunspot cycles since the Dalton Minimum in the early 19th century, and that low sunspot activity has a good correlation to global cooling. Cooler wetter summers, colder longer winters. At least in the northern hemisphere where we have relatively good historical records. Below, the latest update from America. Coincident or not, today’s Ladies Day at the Royal Ascot races, first held under Queen Anne in 1711, is likely to be wet and unseasonably cool. They were coming off another long cold period back then too, the infamous Maunder Minimum.



New Little Ice Age in store?


The Earth could enter a new 'Little Ice Age' in the coming years due to low solar activity, astronomers believe.

By Stephen Adams 6:13PM BST 15 Jun 2011


Sunspot activity, which follows an 11-year cycle, is due to peak in 2013 after which it will start to wane slightly.


But astronomers think the next upswing will be less intensive than normal, or could fail to happen at all.


That could affect weather on Earth because low solar activity has been linked to low global temperatures in the past.


Between 1645 and 1715 almost no sunspots were observed, a solar period which came to be called the Maunder Minimum.


During those decades Europe suffered frequent unusually harsh winters, and the time was later termed the Little Ice Age.


----Three studies, presented at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's solar physics division, all point towards declining sunspot activity into the next decade.


Frank Hill, of the National Solar Observatory in New Mexico, who worked on one of the studies, said: "The fact that there are three separate lines of evidence all pointing in the same direction is very compelling."


More.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8578014/New-Little-Ice-Age-in-store.html


How Missing Sunspots Could Lead to Global Cooling


June 15, 2011 10:13pm EST


Just days after the earth came close to being struck by a solar flare, some scientists are saying the sun will actually be soon entering a relatively inactive phase, leading to a drop in sunspot activity. Counterintuitively, however, this could potentially be just as troublesome for the planet.


Recent data collected from different groups of researchers suggests the sun may soon enter a particularly "quiet" period after the current active phase is finished, due to peak in 2013. Scientists have recorded both a decline in the magnitude of sunspots—cooler areas of the sun's surface that are easily visible from earth—and a delay in the "rush" of chunks of the sun's magnetic field toward the poles, which usually signals the beginning of a solar cycle (in the current one, they were late).


On top of that, jetstreams of solar material almost always mark the start of the solar cycle, and they have yet to occur.


"It's like a leading indicator in the stock market," says Dean Pesnell, a project scientist with NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. "We have leading indicators for solar activity as well. These zonal flows are one of those leading indicators that tells us the timing of the solar cycle. That leading indicator has been expected to show up for several years, and it still has not appeared."


Reductions in sunspot activity have correlated with particularly cool periods in earth's history, the most notable being the "Maunder Minimum," a 70-year span that began in 1645 when average temperatures in northern Europe and North America went down by a few degrees. The period is sometimes referred to as the Little Ice Age.


"There's been an association of the lack of solar activity with the cooling at that time," says Pesnell. "When we look back in time, we see a few other of these minimum periods that didn't last quite as long, but they also correspond with cooling times. These are times when they were ice skating on the Thames."



Could the earth be due for another cooling period? The current solar cycle, due to peak in 2013, appears to be fairly weak in terms of solar activity (though that doesn't mean extreme solar flares, like last week's, are out of the picture). Taking into account the lack of normal activity, it's possible the next solar cycle may not happen at all, leading to a chilling effect.


Pesnell, however, isn't convinced.


"There was some discussion about whether the solar cycle will disappear, and I'm not as convinced of those results," he says. "We're not sure how sunspots affect the earth's climate. When we look back in time, we see times when there's little solar activity, and at the same time the earth's temperature is cooler than average. We're not sure how the two are connected."


Pesnell also says there have been periods when the sun was unusually active, which led to lengthy warm periods for the northern hemisphere. One of them, called the Medieval Optimum, allowed the Vikings to colonize Greenland.


More


http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2387098,00.asp



"Never spend your money before you have it."


Thomas Jefferson



The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:



DJIA: +196 Up. NASDAQ: +249 Up. SP500: +200 Up.


The Dow and SP 500 and NASDAQ have all reversed from down to up. The Fed’s rigging of the indicators seems to have worked. Note: like all indicators, they were devised for normal markets not markets where the central bank is flooding the economy with new cash. In current conditions where risk is suspended by too big to fail, I doubt any indicators are showing more that where the Fed’s new cash is flowing in our world of casino capitalism. But the Fed’s QE program is supposed to end this month!!!


Wednesday, 15 June 2011

Default Looms.

Baltic Dry Index. 1400 -12

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.

"For more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper."

Hans F. Sennholz

Will Greece default this month? Stay long precious metals in case they do. More and more, it looks like Greek politicians are finally wising up to the fact that pushing the country into a 1930s style depression just to bailout French and German banks, makes little sense. Sooner or later Ireland’s politicians will discover the same reality. The only “solution” for Greece and Ireland is to restructure the debt down to a level that their economies can cover, and to extend the maturity to reflect the new “normal” growth level of the global economy post 2007-2009. Both should also leave the idiotic, one size fits all, European Monetary Union. My guess is that one more muddled “fix” will emerge this month but that later this year both Greece and Ireland will see the beacon of Iceland.

Below, the latest on the sinking of the SS Greece. Yet another general strike is due today, which of course only makes a bad situation worse.

Greece, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.

Homer Simpson.

George Soros blames officials as Greek crisis escalates

Billionaire investor George Soros has criticised international authorities for "not providing a solution" for the European debt crisis as Greek sovereign bond yields were pushed to record levels again

By Louise Armitstead 10:13PM BST 14 Jun 2011

Mr Soros, who spoke out as European finance ministers met today to discuss the crisis, said the officials were "basically buying time" rather than tackling the problems. He added: "This is the normal thing for authorities to do. In this case, I'm afraid they are making a mistake."

Credit markets were thrown into fresh turmoil as Greek debt became the lowest rated in the world following a savage downgrade by Standard & Poor's on Monday.

The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds spiked to a record high of more than 17pc as investors demanded a higher return to cover the risks of holding the debt.

Greek debt is now the lowest rated in the world – below Ecuador and Grenada – with many investors now expecting an uncontrolled default.

The emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers was called by Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the group, and comes ahead of a summit in Brussels next week. The group has set a deadline of June 20 to agree a new aid package for Greece, the country's second in 14 months.

More

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8575905/Geroge-Soros-blames-officials-as-Greek-crisis-escalates.html

June 14, 2011, 5:41 p.m. EDT

How to profit from the coming Greek default

Commentary: Five trades to make before the euro implodes

By Matthew Lynn

LONDON (MarketWatch) — You don’t exactly need a crystal ball to know what the biggest event in the financial markets of the next 12 months is going to be: Greece defaulting on its debts.

This week Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on the country to CCC, the lowest of any nation in the world. Only last week we learned that Greek industrial production was down 11% year-on-year. Unemployment has risen 40% over the past year, and now stands above 16% nationally. A year on from the European Union and International Monetary Fund “rescue,” Greece is slipping into 1930s-style depression.

A country in that kind of a fix doesn’t pay back debt. Nor does it get its deficit under control. It isn’t a question of whether Greece defaults anymore. Everyone accepts that. It is simply an issue of when, by how much, on what terms — and, perhaps most crucially of all, who gets stuck with paying the bill.

More.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-greek-default-2011-06-14

15 June 2011 Last updated at 05:16

Greeks set to strike as MPs debate austerity measures

Workers in Greece are due to stage a general strike, as the parliament meets to debate new austerity measures.

Demonstrators say they will encircle the parliament building in an attempt to prevent MPs from taking part.

Prime Minister George Papandreou is trying to push through fresh policies as part of the conditions for the EU and IMF's bail-out package.

----Activists and unionists plan to gather at Syntagma Square on the front steps of the assembly in central Athens on Wednesday.

Mr Papandreou faces the risk of a backbench revolt over the plans.

One MP defected from Mr Papandreou's PASOK party defected on Tuesday, leaving it with only 155 of the chamber's 300 seats.

"You have to be as cruel as a tiger to vote for these measures. I am not," George Lianis, a former sports minister, said in a letter to parliament's speaker announcing his departure from the parliamentary group.

At least one other Socialist MP has threatened to vote against the new programme of cuts and privatisation of state assets.

The government has appealed for consensus over its proposals, which would see 6.5bn euros (£5.7bn; $9.4bn) worth of tax rises and spending cuts this year.

More

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13773148

Next the WSJ tackles the wrong problem, reaches a wrong conclusion, and pins its faith on the banksters who generated the near collapse coming up with a way to fix it. Goldman really is going to do “God’s work”. Does a leopard change its spots. No mention of unrestricted fiat currency, Wall Street fraud, 600 trillion of derivatives gambling off a 60 trillion global GDP base. No mention that on fiat money, growth must be exponential, an impossibility in a fixed resource global world. No mention that fiat currency is self destructive, and always ends in a fiat currency revulsion. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, what did you think of the play?

"We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades."

Leonard Read

JUNE 15, 2011

Fixing Problem Economies Is Like Wrestling a Balloon

Why do economies find it so hard to grow their way out of financial crises? Analytical work on historical banking disasters by Harvard's Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff shows that post-collapse growth tends to be far slower than in the wake of common or garden-variety business-cycle recessions.

The history of America and Europe in the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s suggests that what really turns a financial crisis into a slump is the rapid deleveraging of the banking system; an economy can't grow if it's starved of credit. The risk now is that this is happening again.

What has become particularly apparent from the current crisis is that dealing with the banking system is the hardest part of the policy response. Economic theory has plenty to say on how to calibrate monetary and fiscal policy, but little to offer on how best to police the banking system to strike the right balance between maintaining financial stability, minimizing moral hazard and ensuring adequate growth. But in the context of an economy groaning under excessive debt, this may be the most important issue.

Banks play a vital role in the economy, performing the vital but highly risky task of turning short-term deposits into long-term loans and allocating scarce capital to productive businesses. Following a financial crisis caused by imprudent lending, there is inevitably intense political pressure to punish bankers and reform the system to prevent such a crisis ever occurring again. But since no other organizations can do what banks do, society is left in the uncomfortable position of having to rely on the people who got it into the mess to get it out again.

The trick is to control the pace of deleveraging. A highly leveraged economy is like an over-inflated balloon. If you try to squeeze the risk off the government balance sheet by raising taxes and cutting spending, the risk simply pops up in the financial sector and real economy in the form of slower growth, lower profits and reduced spending. Similarly, force banks to deleverage too fast and financial sector risks are merely passed on to the sovereign and real economy.

More.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303714704576385693542358346.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_MIDDLETopStories

We close for today with a warning on UK inflation. As austerity increasingly starts kicking in, the UK’s Bolshevik unions are starting to call a wave of strikes. They won’t help in the UK anymore than they help in Greece, but they do give the Brits another reason to get long some physical gold and silver. Our world is well on its way to currency perdition.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true!

Homer Simpson.

High inflation could have 'diastrous consequences' for UK, economists warn

Unleashing high inflation on the economy in the hope that it will afford a painless route to slashing the nation's £910bn sovereign debt burden could have "disastrous consequences", Capital Economics warns.

By Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor 6:00AM BST 15 Jun 2011

A number of prominent economists have claimed inflation could be an easy path to fiscal sustainability by trimming the debt pile without inflicting extreme spending cuts on the country and by letting house prices normalise without triggering a damaging crash.

Some even believe that the Bank of England is operating a tacit high-inflation policy, having overshot its 2pc target for 51 of the past 60 months.

The warning that high inflation could be without beneficial effects, from Capital Economics, came as the Office for National Statistics published the latest data for May. The consumer prices index (CPI) was unchanged at 4.5pc – its highest level since September 2008 and the 17th consecutive month the rate was more than a percentage point above the Bank's target.

May's unchanged figure masked big annual rises in food prices as transport costs fell sharply month-on-month due to the timing of the Easter holidays.

Fish prices rose 11.4pc, sugar and confectionary 7.5pc, bread 5.8pc, fruit 5.4pc, meat 5.1pc and vegetables 5.1pcas the squeeze on households showed no signs of letting up.

At the same time, alcohol and tobacco prices rose at their fastest pace since records began in 1997 – at 9.8pc.

Michael Saunders at Citi warned inflation is now becoming broadly based, with 80pc of the items measured in the CPI rising by more than 2pc year on year.

Alliance Trust added inflation is hitting the elderly hardest, due to the soaring costs of food and domestic utilities such as water and heating – the price of which rose 4.3pc. "The 65-74 year-old age group now faces the highest rate of inflation, at 5.2pc," it said.

The pain on households is not having a counterbalancing effect on the public finances, Capital Economics warned.

----As current inflation pressures are largely commodity-based, high prices "reduce consumers' incomes and therefore demand". As a result, households' effective mortgage payments rise and economic growth may falter – leading to reduced tax revenues, Capital Economics said.

High inflation may also lead to more expensive interest rates for the private sector as markets seek to protect themselves against rising prices.

At the same time, the consultancy claimed the UK is the least well-placed of seven major developed economies – including the US, Germany, Japan and France – to take advantage of soaring prices because a fifth of all Government debt is inflation-indexed.

With welfare payments also linked to prices, high inflation makes it more difficult to cut the budget deficit.

More

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8575966/High-inflation-could-have-diastrous-consequences-for-UK-economists-warn.html

“I want to share something with you: The three little sentences that will get you through life. Number 1: Cover for me. Number 2: Oh, good idea, Boss! Number 3: It was like that when I got here.”

Homer Simpson.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday, final figures were: Registered 27.92 Moz, Eligible 70.89 Moz, Total 98.81 Moz. Almost 2 Million ozs left the Comex depositories yesterday, with only 28 Moz available for delivery. A silver default appears to be looming.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, more on when Wall Street calls hang up. God’s work on Wall Street in the land of the blood sucking great vampire squids. And the Journal think that Ebenezer Squid & Co., are really going to fix this mess.

Old Ebenezer Squid had one-way pockets. He would walk ten miles in the snow to chisel an orphan out of tuppence.

With apologies to P.G. Wodehouse and the Duke of Dunstable.

SEC Probes $1.5 Billion Merrill CDO Sale

Tuesday, 14 Jun 2011 | 8:22 PM ET

The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating Merrill Lynch’s sale of a complex mortgage-related security it created for Magnetar, an Illinois hedge fund, and the collateral manager involved in the deal, according to people familiar with the matter.

The investigation is one of several SEC probes into banks that helped underwrite billions of dollars of collateralized debt obligations, securities comprised of mortgages or derivatives linked to them.

It also marks a broadening of the SEC’s investigation into the role of collateral managers, institutions that help select the assets included in CDOs.

NIR Capital Management, a Roslyn, New York firm run by Corey Ribotsky, served as manager for the security under scrutiny, a $1.5 billion CDO known as Norma. Neither Mr Ribotsky nor his attorney returned calls seeking comment.

Regulators are looking at whether collateral managers, which are supposed to serve CDO investors’ interests, fulfilled their obligations, these people say.

Last year, the SEC sued another collateral manager, ICP Asset Management, and its founder Thomas Priore for allegedly defrauding investors in CDOs it managed. Mr Priore has denied wrongdoing and is fighting the charges.

The SEC, which is looking at several deals banks structured for Magnetar, is investigating whether Merrill told buyers that Magnetar helped select the assets included in the Norma CDO and bet against those same assets, these people say.

Magnetar has denied claims it selected the Norma portfolio.

Regulators are also looking into whether Merrill mispriced assets in the CDO, these people say. Bank of America which acquired Merrill Lynch, declined to comment. The bank previously said it lost $900m on the Norma CDO.

In 2009 Dutch bank Rabobank, which invested in Norma through a loan, sued Merrill in a New York state court, alleging the bank overvalued some assets by marking them at face value even though their market value had already deteriorated by 15 per cent.

The banks reached a settlement last year.

According to Rabobank’s lawsuit, Merrill allegedly created Norma as a “tailor-made way to bet against the mortgage-backed securities market”. The suit said: “Merrill Lynch hand-picked a beholden collateral manager that was willing to ignore its fiduciary duties to Norma’s investors by selecting Norma’s collateral pool at Merrill Lynch’s behest rather than on the basis of the rigorous independent analysis.”

The US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concluded: “Merrill failed to disclose that Magnetar was paid $4.5 million or that Magnetar was selecting collateral when it also had a short position that would benefit from losses.”

More.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43402844

It’s morally wrong to let a sucker keep his money.

W. C. Fields. Wall Street Ethicist.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:

DJIA: +196 Up. NASDAQ: +249 Up. SP500: +200 Up.

The Dow and SP 500 and NASDAQ have all reversed from down to up. The Fed’s rigging of the indicators seems to have worked. Note: like all indicators, they were devised for normal markets not markets where the central bank is flooding the economy with new cash. In current conditions where risk is suspended by too big to fail, I doubt any indicators are showing more that where the Fed’s new cash is flowing in our world of casino capitalism. But the Fed’s QE program is supposed to end this month!!!

Tuesday, 14 June 2011

A World Turned Upside Down.

Baltic Dry Index. 1418 -10

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.

"Paper money has had the effect in your state [Rhode Island] that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice.”

George Washington 1787.

From east to west, from north to south it is all increasingly going wrong, yet no one is yet connecting the world’s economic ills to the scourge of fiat money. Fiat money is the ultimate Ponzi Scheme, requiring ever more tranches of new cash to keep, what has by now become malinvestment growth running, in a world now operating on unrepayable debt. Stay long physical precious metals. The whole fiat money system is broken and unfixable, but for now we go on with the pretense that it isn’t. For now, we continue on with massive global fiat currency creation, and act surprised when unlimited currency creation shows up in the very finite commodities markets as a commodity price bubble. Those not in the financialised gambling economy, find that their salaries and savings can’t keep up. Discontent and worse, lurk in most countries, with a few like Greece and North Africa experiencing more than mere discontent.

Below, a set of worrying articles that need little commentary from me. Sufficient to say that this is now a most unstable investment environment, probably since the 1930s, with safety now in cash or better yet precious metals.

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

Adam Smith

JUNE 14, 2011

Wave of Unrest Rocks China

Threats to Social Order Increasingly Hit Cities, Bringing Iron-Fist Response

BEIJING—A wave of violent unrest in urban areas of China over the past three weeks is testing the Communist Party's efforts to maintain control over an increasingly complex and fractious society, forcing it to repeatedly deploy its massive security forces to contain public anger over economic and political grievances.

The simultaneous challenge to social order in several cities from the industrial north to the export-oriented south represents a new threat for China's leaders in the politically sensitive run-up to a once-a-decade leadership change next year, even though for now the violence doesn't appear to be coordinated.

In the latest disturbance, armed police were struggling to restore order in a manufacturing town in southern China Monday after deploying tear gas and armored vehicles against hundreds of migrant workers who overturned police cars, smashed windows and torched government buildings there the night before.

The protests, which began Friday night in Zengcheng, in the southern province of Guangdong, followed serious rioting in another city in central China last week, plus bomb attacks on government facilities in two other cities in the past three weeks, and ethnic unrest in the northern region of Inner Mongolia last month.

Antigovernment protests have become increasingly common in China in recent years, according to the government's own figures, but they have been mainly confined to rural areas, often where farmers have been thrown off their land by property developers and local officials.

The latest unrest, by contrast, involves violent protests from individuals and large crowds in China's cities, where public anger is growing over issues including corruption and police abuses.

There is no evidence to suggest the recent violence is part of a coordinated movement—the party's greatest fear—nor do the events threaten its grip on power given the strength of China's security apparatus, and its booming economy, analysts say. They are nonetheless troubling for China's government which, unnerved by unrest in the Arab world, has detained dozens of dissidents since appeals for a "Jasmine Revolution" in China began circulating online in February. The Mideast uprisings so far haven't inspired similar mass protests in China.

More.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576383142907232726.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_MIDDLESecondNews

China’s Inflation Accelerates to 5.5%

By Bloomberg News - Jun 14, 2011

China’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost three years in May and industrial production rose more than estimates, sustaining pressure for a further interest-rate increase.

The 5.5 percent annual gain in consumer prices matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Production rose 13.3 percent, exceeding a median 13.1 percent forecast. Fixed-asset investment quickened, according to statistics bureau data released in Beijing today.

---- Policy makers face “some difficult decisions, to tighten, to loosen, or to pause,” Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg Television.

Food prices rose 11.7 percent from a year earlier as pork and vegetable costs surged. Low-income nations from India to Algeria are struggling with food prices that climbed to a record in February according to a United Nations gauge. The Food and Agricultural Organization index was up 37 percent in May from a year earlier.

Inflation has exceeded the Chinese government’s 4 percent target each month this year as companies including McDonald’s Corp. boost prices. Still, the pace remains the slowest of the so-called BRIC nations, with the latest data showing annual rates of 6.6 percent for Brazil, 9.6 percent for Russia and 8.7 percent for India. China’s peak this year may be “slightly above” 6 percent in June, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-14/china-s-inflation-accelerates-to-5-5-.html

US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross

Monday, 13 Jun 2011

When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.

Much of the public focus is on the nation's public debt, which is $14.3 trillion. But that doesn't include money guaranteed for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which comes to close to $50 trillion, according to government figures.

The government also is on the hook for other debts such as the programs related to the bailout of the financial system following the crisis of 2008 and 2009, government figures show.

Taken together, Gross puts the total at "nearly $100 trillion," that while perhaps a bit on the high side, places the country in a highly unenviable fiscal position that he said won't find a solution overnight.

"To think that we can reduce that within the space of a year or two is not a realistic assumption," Gross said in a live interview. "That's much more than Greece, that's much more than almost any other developed country. We've got a problem and we have to get after it quickly."

More

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43378973

Greece's credit rating cut again on higher risk of default

Greece's recovery plans have suffered another hammer blow after Standard & Poor's cut the country's credit rating because of "a significantly higher likelihood of one or more defaults".

By Louise Armitstead 9:37PM BST 13 Jun 2011

The rating agency reduced the long-term rating on Greek sovereign debt from B to CCC – only four notches above default. It added that in its view the country's credit outlook was "negative".

The yield on 10-year bonds issued by Greece has soared to 16.9pc and the country's sovereign debt is now the lowest rated in the world, ranking below Ecuador, Jamaica and Grenada. The move also impacted Portuguese and Irish bonds, which are also experiencing similar problems to the Hellenic nation.

The downgrade triggered an angry response from the Greek finance ministry which claimed Standard & Poor's decision was made on the back of "rumours and statements by representatives of the European Commission and European Central Bank".

The ministry said: "However, the decision ignores the intense consultations taking place between the same institutions and the International Monetary Fund aimed at designing a viable solution that will cover the financing needs of Greece in the coming years."

----The statement came as the euro fell again amid fears that European leaders would not be able to agree terms for Greece's new bail-out – its second in 14 months.

Traders are alarmed by the division between Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's finance minister, who wants Greek bondholders to extend the maturities on the seven year debt, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, who has argued that any restructuring is the same as a default.

European and international officials are scrambling to agree a plan to stem Greece's debt crisis by the end of June.

More

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8573780/Greeces-credit-rating-cut-again-on-higher-risk-of-default.html

JUNE 14, 2011

Italians Vote to Abandon Nuclear Energy

ROME—Italians voted to abandon nuclear power for the foreseeable future, turning out in droves to cast ballots in a packet of referenda whose outcome is a sign of growing popular discontent toward Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's conservative government.

Mr. Berlusconi's administration had in past weeks urged people not to vote in the four referenda, which were organized by center-left opposition parties and which asked voters whether they wanted to overturn government laws on reviving nuclear energy, privatizing Italy's water supply and giving top government officials partial immunity from prosecution.

Instead, 57% of Italians went to the polls—a number well above the 50% of the voting population needed to make a referendum valid, a threshold last reached in 1995. More than 95% of those who cast their ballots voted "yes" in each referendum, overturning the four laws in question.

"This was a vote against nuclear energy. But by urging people not to go to the polls, Berlusconi turned this into a vote against himself," said Giovanni Sartori, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Florence.

Mr. Berlusconi had made restarting nuclear energy in Italy one of his government's priorities. The immunity law also had been one of the government's key planks. The law allows the prime minister and other top officials not to show up in court for criminal trials, if busy governing schedules are cited. Critics, however, have long characterized the law as a tailor-made measure aimed at shielding Mr. Berlusconi from the four criminal trials he is currently facing.

---- Monday's outcome is notable not just for the lopsided vote but also because it comes just weeks after Mr. Berlusconi's conservative coalition was badly defeated in local elections. Though the premier still has the majority in Parliament he needs to govern, his popularity has been falling in recent months.

---- Italy's chronically feeble economy, however, is weighing heavily on young people in particular, and many here are fed up with the premier's legal woes, including most recently his trial on charges of paying for sex with an underage woman and abusing his power to cover it up—charges the premier denies.

----- Italy abandoned nuclear energy in 1987—shortly after the Chernobyl nuclear accident—by voting against it in a referendum similar to Monday's. In the current vote, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear crisis in Japan drew people to the polls. As in other European countries, Italy earlier this year imposed a moratorium on its nuclear plans, but Mr. Berlusconi's government was hoping to resurrect them longer term by building several plants across the country. Early on Monday, as the results were coming in, Mr. Berlusconi said that without the possibility of nuclear plants, Italy would have to "strongly commit" to renewable energy.

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303714704576383452729642270.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_newsreel_world#articleTabs%3Dcomments

We end for the day with Scotland setting out to be the new Iceland or Greece. Debt free Scotland, except to the extent it is partly responsible for the UK’s national debt, is proposing to go into debt in its sole right. Don’t worry, we’ve got North Sea oil, I suppose is the warped logic, ignoring the fact that the oil already supports the UK taxation base and is already in steep decline. Adam Smith must be spinning in his grave.

It is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.

P.G. Wodehouse.

Scotland to issue its own bonds

Just when European credit traders felt they could no longer be shocked, the Government has announced that Scotland will soon be able to issue its own sovereign bonds.

By Louise Armitstead 7:00AM BST 14 Jun 2011

The launch of the 'Braveheart bonds' was sanctioned as part of the Scotland Bill which includes the biggest transfer of fiscal powers from Westminster to Edinburgh in the Union's 300-year history.

The Treasury insisted that the bonds, which can be issued without further primary legislation, would be guaranteed by Scotland and not the UK Government.

As part of the package, Edinburgh has also been given extra tax-raising powers. Overall amendments to the Scottish Bill will hand a extra £12bn of spending to Scotland which currently has an annual budget of £30bn to spend on health, education and other public services.

At the moment, Scotland can borrow £500m to cover short-term spending gaps. It will now have the ability to borrow up to £2.2bn to finance long-term infrastructure projects. Capital borrowing will be capped at £230m a year.

More

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8573653/Scotland-to-issue-its-own-bonds.html

I don't owe a penny to a single soul--not counting tradesmen, of course.

P.G. Wodehouse.

At the Comex silver depositories Monday, final figures were: Registered 28.70 Moz, Eligible 72.12 Moz, Total 100.82 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Once again more on the ever growing scandal of TEPCO. Who gave them a license to start fooling around with nuclear power?

“And Lord, we are especially thankful for nuclear power, the cleanest, safest energy source there is. Except for solar, which is just a pipe dream.”

Homer Simpson.

JUNE 14, 2011

Japanese Nuclear Cleanup Workers Detail Lax Safety Practices at Plant

OGAKI, Japan—When Masayuki Sakamoto stepped onto the grounds of the world's most dangerous nuclear power plant in March, he had little preparation other than a half-hour briefing on protective gear.

The 56-year-old owner of a 30-person construction firm from central Japan had been hired to clear debris and shovel dirt at the Fukushima Daiichi plant at a time when its reactors were belching smoke and oozing gamma rays. He had never worn a hazmat suit or used a dosimeter. He still doesn't have the proper paperwork that, in normal times, would be needed to work in a radioactive environment.

Mr. Sakamoto's rare and detailed description of daily conditions at the plant reveals the extent of worker-safety concerns there. On Monday, plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co., or Tepco, said six more workers—bringing the total to eight—have likely received larger doses of radiation than allowed, even under Japan's loosened exposure limits.

----To clean up the plant, Tepco is leaning heavily on people like Mr. Sakamoto: an underclass of subcontractors and laborers who often have little education, training or understanding of the hazards they face.

The issues he described were compounded by the chaos inside the plant during the first few months of the crisis. After the quake and tsunami, normal systems for monitoring radiation and overseeing workers broke down, and Tepco was slow in implementing alternatives, interviews with Mr. Sakamoto and half-dozen other workers indicate.

Tepco acknowledges the issue. "Our top priority was cooling the reactors, so people might say that our response is slow,'' said Tepco spokesman Takeo Iwamoto, discussing radiation management. "We are working on it as quickly as possible."

Some workers weren't properly registered for working in radioactive environments, Tepco said in a May report. Many didn't get dosimeters to monitor radiation exposure when equipment was short in the early weeks.

A few workers employed by a major construction company, who asked not to be named, say they weren't told when they were recruited that they would be going to the plant, where radiation levels can still be many thousands of times higher than normal.

Spokesmen for Tepco said they believe workers are trained properly. They also said Tepco isn't responsible for the employees and subcontractors of other firms working inside Daiichi.

----A Tepco probe a month or so ago into puzzlingly high levels of radiation exposure recorded by people in Daiichi's command center revealed that the center was likely contaminated, and potentially thousands of workers ingested radioactive particles.

Tepco says it has tested more than 2,300 workers for exposure to inhaled radioactive particles and has found elevated levels in hundreds of people.

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304906004576371300261616120.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

“Sometimes the only way you can feel good about yourself is by making someone else look bad. And I'm tired of making other people feel good about themselves.”

TEPCO, with apologies to Homer Simpson.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:

DJIA: +196 Up. NASDAQ: +249 Up. SP500: +200 Up.

The Dow and SP 500 and NASDAQ have all reversed from down to up. The Fed’s rigging of the indicators seems to have worked. Note: like all indicators, they were devised for normal markets not markets where the central bank is flooding the economy with new cash. In current conditions where risk is suspended by too big to fail, I doubt any indicators are showing more that where the Fed’s new cash is flowing in our world of casino capitalism. But the Fed’s QE program is supposed to end this month!!!

Monday, 13 June 2011

The Great Recession Part 2.

Baltic Dry Index. 1418 -10

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.

"Increasingly, the wealth of the modern world has come to be represented by financial assets rather than real assets, and this to me is a very unhealthy situation, because financial assets are inherently unstable. Financial assets (currencies, bonds, mortgages, stocks, bank credit, etc.) can be quickly and violently reduced in value, or destroyed completely by either inflation or deflation."

Donald J. Hoppe

We open this week with signs of another wobble in China. With one global economy foot already in the grave, the other foot seems to have found the famous banana skin. From London, this morning, the Great Recession part two appears on the cards for arrival in H2 2011.

China Lending Tumbles, Signals Slowing Economy

By Bloomberg News - Jun 13, 2011 7

China’s lending tumbled in May and money supply grew at the slowest pace since 2008, adding to signs that the world’s second-biggest economy is cooling.

Loans were 551.6 billion yuan ($85 billion), less than the 650 billion yuan median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 20 economists and 639 billion yuan a year earlier. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 15.1 percent, the People’s Bank of China said on its website.

The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.5 percent as of 2:23 p.m. local time as the data fueled concern that interest-rate increases to combat inflation will trigger a slowdown. A report tomorrow may show that consumer prices jumped 5.5 percent in May from a year earlier, the biggest gain in almost three years, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey shows.

“This provides another data point highlighting the growth risk,” said Tao Dong, a Hong Kong-based economist for Credit Suisse Group AG. “I think the economy is heading to a soft landing in the second half of 2011, but the risk of a hard landing seems to be on the rise,” Tao said, adding that small companies are short of credit.

New loans in the first five months of the year totaled 3.55 trillion yuan, 12 percent lower than the same period last year and 40 percent smaller than in 2009 when credit surged to cushion the nation from the impact of the global financial crisis.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-13/china-s-lending-is-below-estimates-as-fastest-growing-major-economy-cools.html

Below, Professor Gloom issues a warning from Singapore. I suspect that with the Fed’s QE2 program ending, our complacent over valued stock markets are in for a summer of deepening distress. Without a QE3 program to sustain US stock prices, the slump QE programs were created to prevent, all too likely occurs.

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

Adam Smith

‘Perfect Storm’ May Threaten Global Economy

By Shamim Adam - Jun 13, 2011

A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.

There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013, Roubini said in a June 11 interview in Singapore. Other possible outcomes are “anemic but OK” global growth or an “optimistic” scenario in which the expansion improves.

“There are already elements of fragility,” he said. “Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.”

Elevated U.S. unemployment, a surge in oil and food prices, rising interest rates in Asia and trade disruption from Japan’s record earthquake threaten to sap the world economy. Stocks worldwide have lost more than $3.3 trillion since the beginning of May, and Roubini said financial markets by the middle of next year could start worrying about a convergence of risks in 2013.

The MSCI AC World Index has tumbled 4.9 percent this month on concern recent data, including an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in May, signal the global economy is losing steam. U.S. Treasuries rose last week, pushing two-year note yields down for a ninth week in the longest stretch of decreases since February 2008, on bets the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus.

World expansion may slow in the second half of 2011 as “the deleveraging process continues,” fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and confidence ebbs, Roubini also said.

More.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-11/china-economy-at-risk-of-hard-landing-after-2013-nouriel-roubini-says.html

Back in Europe, the great German war against the European Central Bank continues with a new front opening up on the board of the ECB. From London a Greek default looks inevitable. The longer it’s delayed by fudge and new loans, the more costly it’s going to be and the greater the likelihood of the Euro splitting into two. Euros anyone? With the ECB publicly stating it won’t roll over its own 40 billion holding of Greek bonds in any maturity extension, why would anyone else?

Greek Default Would Not Destabilize the Euro, Bundesbank’s Weidmann Says

By Richard Weiss - Jun 12, 2011

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann raised the pressure on governments to agree to a Greek bailout without the European Central Bank taking part in easing the country’s debt burden, saying the euro can withstand a default.

Weidmann said the ECB was unwilling to turn its emergency bond-buying program into a “lasting institution” and that Greece’s implementation of austerity measures and asset sales was crucial to securing the handout to prevent a default. He spoke in an interview with German newspaper Welt am Sonntag.

“If the commitments are not met, that cancels the basis for further funds from the aid package,” Weidmann told the newspaper. “This would be Greece’s decision, and the country then would have to bear the surely dramatic economic consequences of a default. I don’t think this would be sensible, and it would surely put partner countries in a difficult situation. But the euro would even in this case remain stable.”

Weidmann’s depiction of a default as a liveable outcome contrasts with warnings from fellow ECB officials Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and Christian Noyer, as well as European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, who described it as a “Lehman Brothers catastrophe” last week.

European officials are racing to find a plan to stem Greece’s debt crisis by June 24 while sharing the cost of a new rescue with bondholders. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is calling for Greek bondholders to extend the maturities of their debt by seven years, a move ECB officials say is akin to a default.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-12/bundesbank-chief-says-euro-can-weather-greek-defaul-as-governments-haggle.html

We end for the day with other news. Who’s agenda is served by conditioning the public for a clash with China in the South China Sea? Can the world’s biggest debtor really afford to side with Vietnam against its largest creditor? Stay long physical precious metals. Nothing good results from a new US foreign escapade in the South China Sea.

Vietnam seeks US support in China dispute

By Ben Bland in Hanoi Published: June 12 2011 14:29 | Last updated: June 12 2011 21:36

Vietnam has called on the US and other nations to help resolve the escalating territorial disputes in the resource-rich South China Sea, in a move likely to anger Beijing, which opposes what it sees as outside interference.

Tensions between China and Vietnam continued to rise over the weekend, ahead of live-fire drills planned by Vietnam’s navy on Monday on an islet around 20 miles from the coast of central Vietnam, which Hanoi described as “routine”.

Stirred by a number of maritime confrontations with China over recent weeks, hundreds of Vietnamese took part in rare anti-China protests on Sunday for the second straight weekend, with the usually draconian police allowing the demonstrations to take place.

“China is running an information campaign to blind people,” said Pham Gia Minh, a 55-year-old investment consultant who attended a protest outside the Chinese embassy in Hanoi. “We have to let people understand that we want peace but when the aggressor comes we will stand up to them.”

In addition to China and Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan claim some or all of the territory in the contested area of the South China Sea, which is believed to contain vast oil and gas reserves and incorporates key trade routes and abundant fish stocks

The Vietnamese government has ratcheted up its rhetoric in recent weeks amid growing public disquiet over perceived maritime bullying by China, which dominated Vietnam for 1000 years and fought a brief but bloody border war against it in 1979. At the weekend Vietnam’s foreign ministry said that it would “welcome” efforts by the US and other nations to help resolve the South China Sea dispute and maintain peace and stability.

Such sentiments are unlikely to go down well in Beijing, which insists that the long-running row over the South China Sea must be resolved on a purely bilateral basis.

China reacted angrily last July when Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, insisted that the South China Sea was of strategic importance to the US and offered to act as a mediator.

The US said on Friday that is was “troubled” by the latest developments in the South China Sea, with Mark Toner, a state department spokesman, warning that “shows of force” only increase tensions, which have been on the rise in recent weeks.

Hanoi and Beijing have traded accusations of infringement of sovereignty and harassment of their fishing and oil exploration vessels and China has also clashed with the Philippines in a similar fashion.

“China’s behaviour has gone from assertive to aggressive,” said Ian Storey, a fellow at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore and an expert on maritime security in the South China Sea.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05e83b34-94db-11e0-a648-00144feab49a.html#axzz1P8PquZcX

"The gold standard sooner or later will return with the force and inevitability of natural law, for it is the money of freedom and honesty."

Hans F. Sennholz

At the Comex silver depositories Friday, final figures were: Registered 28.70 Moz, Eligible 72.27 Moz, Total 100.97 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Tokyo Electric Power Company again. The new Chernobyl. The more we learn about TEPCO, the more inept their response seems to have been. Now the 20 mile exclusion zone looks increasingly inadequate. Below, the latest dismal news from TEPCO.

Japan Radiation Sleuths Toil With Borrowed Geigers

By Shigeru Sato, Sachiko Sakamaki and Tsuyoshi Inajima - Jun 13, 2011

----Masanori Monma, principal of the Kashima Elementary School in Minami Soma, borrowed a portable Geiger counter from the science ministry. Last month, he got a reading of 2.1 microsieverts an hour at a ditch next to a school flowerbed, about 35 times higher than in downtown Tokyo and at the top end of the annual safety limit for radiation exposure.

More than three months after the biggest earthquake in Japan’s history and a 15-meter (40-foot) tsunami wrecked the Fukushima atomic power station, a picture emerges of ad-hoc responses to the crisis. In the days after the worst atomic disaster since Chernobyl, Tokyo Electric Power Co. was using fire hoses and makeshift pumps to try and cool the crippled reactors.

About 100,000 evacuees still sleep on gymnasium floors, unsure if they can ever go home. Less than half of Minami Soma’s 71,000 residents now live there, with some carrying personal Geiger counters. Tepco forecasts the reactors will be brought under control by October at the earliest.

----“The government’s action was inefficient, extremely slow and outdated,” said Sentaro Takahashi, a professor studying radiation control at Kyoto University. “Right from the start, Japan lacked the crisis management to cope with a disaster that requires quick plans and action.”

Radiation leaks from the Fukushima reactors have spread over 600 square kilometers, Tomio Kawata, a fellow at the Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan, said in a research report published May 24 and given to the government.

Radioactive soil in pockets of areas outside the 20- kilometer exclusion zone around the plant have reached the same level as in Chernobyl following a reactor explosion in the former Soviet Union territory 25 years ago, the report said.

Tokyo Electric, the operator of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, failed to provide sufficient measures to prevent the disaster, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano said last month.

----Efforts to bring the reactors under control have been marred by accidents and delays.

Tepco lost power to cooling systems at reactors 1 and 2 last week and has yet to identify the cause. A broken cooling pump at the No. 5 reactor was not discovered and replaced for 15 hours on May 30, allowing temperatures at the unit to more than double to 93.6 degrees Celsius.

‘Ineptitude, Negligence’

The plant had a gas tank explosion on May 31 and reported oil leaks into the ocean. The nearby Dai-Ni nuclear station, also operated by Tepco, reported a fire in a distribution panel on May 27, during a visit by an investigation team from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“If Tepco was operating this facility in the U.S., all of the reactors would have been shut down indefinitely and there would have been a complete changeover of management,” said nuclear engineer Michael Friedlander.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-12/japan-amateur-radiation-sleuths-using-borrowed-geigers-seek-hidden-dangers.html

"The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:

DJIA: +196 Up. NASDAQ: +249 Up. SP500: +200 Up.

The Dow and SP 500 and NASDAQ have all reversed from down to up. The Fed’s rigging of the indicators seems to have worked. Note: like all indicators, they were devised for normal markets not markets where the central bank is flooding the economy with new cash. In current conditions where risk is suspended by too big to fail, I doubt any indicators are showing more that where the Fed’s new cash is flowing in our world of casino capitalism. But the Fed’s QE program is supposed to end this month!!!