Baltic Dry Index. 2069 +29 Brent Crude 110.03
Spot Gold 1938
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 02/03/22 World 438,986,670
Deaths 5,984,586
Governments tend not to solve problems, only to rearrange them.
Ronald Reagan.
Sadly, it is day seven of the new European war. Heroic Ukrainian forces have given the Russians a bloody nose. But as the war drags on re-supply becomes an ever larger problem for the Ukrainian defenders, desperation leading to more aggressive destruction for the attackers.
When and how will this madness end?
Oil, gold and wheat prices are soaring as a result of this disgraceful war.
A massive new burst of global inflation is now about to rock our interconnected global economy.
Purely by chance, Fed Chairman Powell begins his two days of
testimony before Washington’s crooks politicians later today.
We should soon learn how the Fed’s intend to tackle [or not] this giant surge in inflation.
Asian shares slip, oil above $110 as Russia sanctions bite
March 2, 2022 3:44 AM GMT
SHANGHAI, March 2 (Reuters) - Asian stocks came under renewed pressure on Wednesday and the price of oil surged past $110 per barrel as investors fretted about the impact of aggressive sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
As global sanctions against Moscow tighten, the United States banned Russian flights using American airspace, following similar moves by the European Union and Canada.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced the ban during his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, in which he also said Russian President Vladimir Putin would "pay a continuing high price over the long run" for the invasion of Ukraine. read more
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.46% with China's blue-chip CSI300 (.CSI300) index 1.05% lower.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.81%.
In Australia, the benchmark ASX 200 (.AXJO) index was 0.2% higher despite the risk-off mood elsewhere as rising commodity prices lifted miners' shares.
"The Russia-Ukraine conflict will probably continue to dominate markets for the foreseeable future. The announcement yesterday that Russia will not pay coupons to foreign holders on its government debt should push investors further into safe-havens," ING analysts said in a note.
---- On Tuesday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) indexes closed about 1.6% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) dropped nearly 1.8%.
Global sanctions against Russia have prompted a string of major companies to announce suspensions to or exits from their businesses in the country.
Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) said on Tuesday that it will exit Russia operations, including oil production fields, following similar decisions by British oil giants BP PLC and Shell , and Norway's Equinor ASA. (EQNR.OL) read more
Exxon's announcement comes as the price of oil continues to climb. On Wednesday morning, global benchmark Brent crude blew past $110 per barrel, rising more than 5.8% to $111.09, its highest since early July 2014.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also jumped nearly 6% to $109.29, its highest since September 2013.
The rise came despite a global agreement to release 60 million barrels of crude reserves to try to rein in price increases.
"We think that there is some room still for oil prices to continue to climb," said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at UBP in Hong Kong. "So much of it depends upon political factors and making sure that some of the supply coming out of Russia is offset with (not just) more oil from U.S. shale, but also Iran."
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-03-02/
U.S. oil jumps to highest since 2013, tops $109 a barrel as Russia’s war on Ukraine sparks supply fears
U.S. oil climbed to the highest level since 2013 during overnight trading Tuesday, with global benchmark Brent topping $110 per barrel as crude’s blistering rally continues. The advance comes as OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which includes Russia, prepare to meet Wednesday to discuss April’s output.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, jumped more than 5% to trade at $109.23 per barrel, the highest level since at least September 2013. During regular trading the contract gained 8.03% to settle at $103.41 per barrel.
Global benchmark Brent crude rose 5.6% to trade at $110.84, the highest level since July 2014. During Tuesday’s session the contract rose 7.15% to settle at $104.97 per barrel.
“There’s no respite. This is a dramatic moment for the market and the world and supplies,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. “It’s clear the world is going to have to stand up to Russia by foreclosing its oil exports,” he added, noting it’s oil that the market cannot afford to lose.
Both WTI and Brent surged above $100 last Thursday for the first time since 2014 after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting supply fears in what is already a very tight market.
“Crude prices can’t stop going higher as a very tight oil market will likely see further risk to supplies as the War in Ukraine unfolds,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst with Oanda. “Brent crude could surge to the $120 level if the oil market starts to think it is likely that sanctions will be placed on Russian energy.”
On Tuesday member states of the International Energy Agency announced plans to release 60 million barrels of oil reserves in an effort to alleviate the upward march in oil prices. As part of that, the U.S. will release 30 million barrels.
But the announcement did little to calm markets.
“We do not view this as sufficient relief,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients following the announcement. “Demand destruction — through still higher prices — is now likely the only sufficient rebalancing mechanism, with supply elasticity no longer relevant in the face of such a potential large and immediate supply shock,” the firm added.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/us-oil-jumps-to-highest-since-2013-tops-109-a-barrel.html
In day seven of Russia’s new European war on Ukraine, Uncle Sam tells Germany to stop buying Russian gas but continues buying Russian uranium to produce cheap electricity. “Cheap power for me but not for thee,” apparently?
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) Thinks that Russia’s heading for a debt default.
Exclusive: U.S. utilities push White House not to sanction Russian uranium
March 2, 2022 2:13 AM GMT
March 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. nuclear power industry is lobbying the White House to allow uranium imports from Russia to continue despite the escalating conflict in Ukraine, with cheap supplies of the fuel seen as key to keeping American electricity prices low, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The United States relies on Russia and its allies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for roughly half of the uranium powering its nuclear plants - about 22.8 million pounds (10.3 million kg) in 2020 - which in turn produce about 20% of U.S. electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the World Nuclear Association.
Washington and its allies have imposed a series of sanctions on Moscow in the past week as Russian forces pushed deeper into neighboring Ukraine, though the sanctions exempt uranium sales and related financial transactions.
The National Energy Institute (NEI), a trade group of U.S. nuclear power generation companies including Duke Energy Corp (DUK.N) and Exelon Corp (EXC.O), is lobbying the White House to keep the exemption on uranium imports from Russia, the sources said.
The NEI lobbying aims to ensure that uranium is not caught up in any future energy-related sanctions, especially as calls intensify to sanction Russian crude oil sales, the sources said.
"The (U.S. nuclear power) industry is just addicted to cheap Russian uranium," said one of the sources, who declined to be named, citing the sensitivity of the situation.
---- The Biden administration has said it is working to keep American energy costs low.
"We are listening to all inquiries from industry and will continue to do so as we take measures to hold Russia accountable," a White House official said when asked about the uranium lobbying.
---- There is no uranium production or processing in the United States currently, though several companies have said they would like to resume domestic production if they can sign long-term supply contracts with nuclear power producers. Texas and Wyoming have large uranium reserves.
Australia and Canada also have large reserves of uranium and there is ample processing capability there and in Europe. But Russia and its satellites are the cheapest producers.
More
Russia default 'extremely likely' if Ukraine crisis worsens, banking lobby says
Mon, February 28, 2022, 4:29 PM
By Tommy Wilkes
LONDON (Reuters) -Russia is very likely to default on foreign debt and its economy will suffer a double digit contraction this year after the West launched sanctions unprecedented in scale and coordination, a global banking industry lobby group said on Monday.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimated that half of the Russia's central bank's foreign reserves are held in countries which have imposed freezes on its assets, severely shrinking the bank's policymaking firepower.
The central bank, which on Monday hiked interest rates and introduced capital controls, would prioritise the protection of domestic savers with foreign investors "one of the last on the list," the IIF said.
"If we stay here and this (the crisis) escalates, then default and restructuring is likely," Elina Ribakova, the lobby group's deputy chief economist told reporters during a media call.
She said default would be "extremely likely", although the relatively small size of foreign holdings - at around $60 billion - of Russian debt would limit the fallout.
Default on domestically held bonds was far less likely, she added.
Russia's central bank and the Russian finance ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-default-extremely-likely-ukraine-162943440.html
‘Enormous cost’: Ukraine war is likely heading into a more destructive and deadly phase
The next phases of the war in Ukraine are likely to exact a tremendous cost on major cities as Russia turns to bigger, more indiscriminate weapons and prepares for brutal urban fighting.
Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, cities are being encircled, and Russian forces are already resorting to weapons such as artillery to bombard them, retired U.S. Army Col. Jack Jacobs told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
“The Russians are going to increase their indirect fire on population centers, particularly on Kyiv,” Jacobs said. Indirect fire refers to weapons that are aimed not at an individual target but at an area, such as a city. Weapons such as artillery pieces are used in large volume and destroy large areas.
“And in doing that, they’re going to do something that ... they didn’t want to do, because they wanted to take the city intact,” Jacobs said. “They’ll use ... rocket launch capability, artillery, missiles and other indirect fire in order to subdue the Ukrainians in the city. And then try to move in.”
At that point, the war switches from one that plays to Russian military strengths to one that plays to the strengths of the Ukrainians. But it’ll also be a much more destructive war, because it will be fought up close within urban areas.
Russia’s military culture focuses training on operations in open terrain, Jacobs said, whereas the Ukrainians — including many of its civilians — have long been preparing themselves for a door-to-door fight in the cities themselves.
The Ukrainians “have known from very beginning that ultimately, it may come down to their ability to destroy Russian forces inside the built-up areas,” said Jacobs, who experienced urban fighting as an officer in the Vietnam War.
‘Enormous cost’
Unfortunately, that scenario would come at a horrific cost to Ukraine’s cities, which are still full of civilians although many have fled.
---- Russian President Vladimir Putin has already demonstrated a personal willingness to destroy a city — even within Russia’s borders — if that’s what it takes to achieve his political goals.
As Russian prime minister in 1999, Putin launched a brutal military campaign against Chechnya to keep that province under Moscow’s control. Russian troops largely destroyed its capital Grozny in the process. Thousands of civilians were killed there.
“I think Putin is going to have a hard time walking this back,” Jacobs said. “He’s going to keep going until he gets it done ... at some enormous cost. To Ukraine, to Russia, and perhaps even to allies.”
More
Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.
Ronald Reagan.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.
Ronald Reagan.
Commodities Jump Most Since 2009 as Ukraine War Threatens Supply
· Crude oil jumps past $105 with Russia’s isolation deepening
· War is also choking grain supplies from top growing region
Commodity prices soared the most since 2009 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens key supplies of energy, crops and metals that were already tight as major economies emerged from the pandemic.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 23 futures contracts, climbed 4.1% on Tuesday. The gauge has more than doubled from a four-year low reached in March 2020, during the early days of the health crisis.
More
Russia’s War in Ukraine Could Spur Another Global Chip Shortage
Ukraine is home to half of the world's neon gas, which is critical for manufacturing semiconductor chips.
Feb 28, 2022 12:47 PM
On Thursday morning, explosions rocked at least seven cities in Ukraine, heralding the start of a full-scale Russian invasion. Among Putin’s first targets was Odesa, a seaside city huddled around the Black Sea, and one of the country’s busiest ports. But it is also home to a little-known company called Cryoin, which plays a big role in the global production of semiconductors.
Cryoin makes neon gas, a substance used to power the lasers that etch patterns into computer chips. It supplies companies in Europe, Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan, but most of its neon is shipped to the US, the company told WIRED. Now analysts are warning that the ripple effects caused by disruption to Cryoin’s supply could be felt around the world.
Cryoin’s production of neon and other gases ground to a halt on Thursday as the invasion began, says business development director Larissa Bondarenko. “We decided that [our employees] should stay at home for the next couple of days until the situation is clearer, to make sure that everyone is safe,” she says, adding there was no damage to the facility as of Monday. Despite plans to restart production over the weekend, missiles over Odesa meant it was still too dangerous. Bondarenko, who lives half an hour away from the site by car, says she has been sleeping in her basement. “Thank God we have one in our house.”
Semiconductors act as the technological brains in our phones, laptops, smart homes, and even cars. The industry is already wrestling with shortages as it struggles to keep up with pandemic demand for devices. In 2021, chip shortages restricted production for almost every major carmaker, with companies like General Motors shutting entire factories as a result. Apple, one of the world’s largest chip buyers, told manufacturers in October that it would make 10 million fewer iPhones in 2021 than planned due to chip shortages, according to Bloomberg.
But Russian aggression in Ukraine is making the industry nervous that these shortages could be intensified by a repeat of 2014, when prices for neon gas spiked by 600 per cent in response to the annexation of Crimea. Last week, US and Japanese governments were scrambling to make sure that will not happen again, pressuring their chip industries to find alternative sources of this obscure gas before it’s too late.
Ukraine is just one of a series of choke points in the global semiconductor industry. Around half of the world’s neon gas comes from the country, TechCet, an electronic materials advisory firm which advises some of the world’s biggest chipmakers including Intel and Samsung, told WIRED.
More
Steepest rise since 2013: Train fare hike of almost 4 per cent to hit commuters from TODAY
Tuesday 01 March 2022 7:36 am
Train passengers in England and Wales face an increase in fares of up to 3.8 per cent from this morning.
It is the steepest increase since January 2013, according to figures from industry body the Rail Delivery Group (RDG).
Therefore, the Government has been accused of adding to the cost of living crisis following the largest rise in rail fares for nearly a decade.
In Scotland, a 3.8 per cent increase in regulated fares was implemented on January 24.
Paul Tuohy, chief executive of pressure group Campaign for Better Transport, said: “This fare rise couldn’t come at a worse time and will simply add to the cost of living crisis.
“We need to get people back into workplaces, eating in town centre cafes and shopping on their lunchbreaks to help kick start the economy.
---- The UK, Scottish and Welsh governments set the cap on rises in regulated fares, which are around half of tickets such as season tickets and off-peak returns on long distance journeys.
They each decided to match this year’s figure with the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation for July 2021, which was 3.8%.
Train operators traditionally controlled increases in other fares, but governments have much more influence on their decisions after spending billions of pounds to take on their financial liabilities during the coronavirus pandemic.
A Department for Transport (DfT) spokesman said it has “protected passengers” by delaying the fares rise until two months later than normal, and setting a cap which is “well below current inflation rates”.
Latest figures show RPI in January was 7.8 per cent.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Mandatory Covid jabs for NHS staff in England to end from mid-March
Health and social care workers will no longer be required by law to get vaccinated, says Sajid Javid
Tue 1 Mar 2022 18.49 GMT
Mandatory Covid jabs for health and social care workers in England will be scrapped on 15 March, Sajid Javid has said, as he confirmed staff will no longer be required by law to get vaccinated.
The rules came into force for care home staff in November, and had been due to be introduced for frontline NHS and wider social care staff in regulated settings from 1 April.
The policy met fierce resistance from some workers, with warnings that sacking those who did not comply would worsen the already serious staffing crisis engulfing health and care services. Several MPs had also criticised the decision.
Javid, the health secretary, said earlier this year that he believed it was “no longer proportionate” to require vaccination as a condition of deployment under law. On Tuesday he confirmed the regulations in health and social care would be revoked, and said the rules would end on 15 March.
The development immediately raised the question of whether care workers who may have left their jobs could return. Martin Green, the chief executive of Care England, said Javid’s announcement had come too late to repair the “huge” damage done to the care sector.
“Staff have already left residential care services and found new jobs in the NHS and home care,” he told the Guardian. “I seriously doubt we are going to see lots of them coming back.”
Javid said that when the original decision was taken to make it a legal requirement, Delta was the dominant variant of the virus but that had since been replaced by the less severe Omicron.
More
Almost 1,000 people seek compensation over 'severe disability from Covid vaccine'
Government scheme provides payments of up to £120,000 to anyone who suffers significant harm as a result of a jab
Almost 1,000 people have applied for compensation after claiming to have been left severely disabled by the coronavirus vaccine....
More. Paywall.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
This might be very useful later this year if they can get it into production.
Lightweight armor material made of nanotube mats outperforms Kevlar
Nick Lavars February 28, 2022
Weight is often a key consideration for scientists pushing the boundaries of bullet-proof materials, imagining armor that keeps the wearer safe while also improving their mobility. Engineers at the University of Wisconsin–Madison have now forged a new type of ultralight armor material described as a "nanofiber mat," which features a unique chemistry that enables it to outperform Kevlar and steel.
The basis for this new form of armor are tiny cylinders of carbon with the thickness of a single atom. Called carbon nanotubes, these have shown promise as next-generation materials for everything from transistor research, to treating vision loss, to bomb detection devices.
In adapting carbon nanotubes for use in armor materials, the authors of this new study took multi-walled versions of them and combined them with Kevlar nanofibers. The idea was to build on earlier research demonstrating the potential of these materials in absorbing impacts, to see if they couldn't be fashioned into an even more functional armor solution.
“Nano-fibrous materials are very attractive for protective applications because nanoscale fibers have outstanding strength, toughness, and stiffness compared to macroscale fibers,” said Ramathasan Thevamaran, who led the research. “Carbon nanotube mats have shown the best energy absorption so far, and we wanted to see if we could further improve their performance.”
To do so, the scientists tinkered with the chemistry until they landed on the winning recipe. They synthesized Kevlar nanofibers and incorporated just a small amount of them into "mats" made up of carbon nanotubes, with just the right ratio of both, which led to the production of hydrogen bonds between the fibers. The result of these bonds was a dramatic leap in performance.
“The hydrogen bond is a dynamic bond, which means it can continuously break and re-form again, allowing it to dissipate a high amount of energy through this dynamic process,” Thevamaran said. “In addition, hydrogen bonds provide more stiffness to that interaction, which strengthens and stiffens the nanofiber mat. When we modified the interfacial interactions in our mats by adding Kevlar nanofibers, we were able to achieve nearly 100 percent improvement in energy dissipation performance at certain supersonic impact velocities.”
The team put the material to the test using a microprojectile impact testing system, in which lasers are used to launch microbullets into material samples at varying velocities.
“Our system is designed such that we can actually pick a single bullet under a microscope and shoot it against the target in a very controlled way, with a very controlled velocity that can be varied from 100 meters (330 ft) per second all the way to over 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) per second,” Thevamaran said. “This allowed us to conduct experiments at a time scale where we could observe the material’s response – as the hydrogen bond interactions happen.”
These experiments showed that the novel material protected against high-speed impacts better than Kevlar fabric and steel plates. This provides the basis for high-performance, ultralight armor materials, and not just in bulletproof vests. According to the researchers, the material has the potential to allow spacecraft to absorb impacts from high-speed space debris.
“Our nanofiber mats exhibit protective properties that far surpass other material systems at much lighter weight,” said Thevamaran,
The research was published in the journal ACS Nano.
One picture is worth 1000 denials.
Ronald Reagan.
