Baltic Dry Index. 487 -11 Brent Crude 58.16 Spot
Gold 1589
Brexit now in effect.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October
18. Now in effect.
This
great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So,
first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear
is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed
efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin
Delano Roosevelt 1932.
GB Brexit January 31, 2020.
This weekend, because it wouldn’t
reform, and snubbed former UK Prime Minister Cameron’s attempt to renegotiate a
better deal, the EUSSR has lost its second largest economy and the world’s
leading financial center. The rump-EU has also lost its second largest
financial contributor. It will be interesting to watch how the rump-EUSSR
adapts and survives.
Brexit at last: Britain leaves
the EU as champagne corks fly
January 31, 2020 / 1:27 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom
finally cast off from the European Union on Friday for an uncertain future,
with Brexiteers claiming victory and popping champagne corks for an
“independence day” they said marked a new era for the country.
In its
biggest shift since losing its global empire, the United Kingdom slipped away
at 2300 GMT, turning its back after 47 years on the post-World War Two project
that sought to build the ruined nations of Europe into a global power.
Beside the
British parliament, flag-waving Brexit supporters cheered, revelling in a mix
of nostalgia, patriotism and defiance. Some sang “God Save the Queen”, while
others hugged amid the smoke of fireworks.
“The war is
over: we have won,” Nigel Farage, a leading Leave campaigner, told the crowd.
“This is the single most important moment in the modern history of our great
nation.”
On the white
cliffs of Dover, the message: “The UK has left the EU” was projected between a
British and an EU flag.
Once
considered the unlikely dream of a motley crew of “eurosceptics” on the fringes
of British politics, Brexit also weakens the EU, conceived as a way to bind
together Europe’s major powers in peace after centuries of conflict.
---- U.S. President Donald Trump has long
supported Brexit. His Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Britons wanted to
escape the “tyranny of Brussels”.
At EU
headquarters in Brussels, the British flag was lowered. Little will change
immediately, however, as a transition period keeps the United Kingdom as a
member in all but name until the end of 2020.
---- Cast either as an epic opportunity or a grave
mistake, Brexit has turned long-held views of Britain upside down just as the
world grapples with the rise of China and the West’s deepest divisions since
the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union, whose liberated satellite states later
joined the EU.
It also
diminishes the EU. At the stroke of midnight in Brussels, the bloc lost 15% of
its economy, its biggest military spender and the world’s international
financial capital, London.
More
Next, coronavirus news, a much more
important global event. In our stock and commodity markets look out below! This
has all the makings of a black swan disruptive event. All the more so if the
virus can travel on China’s exports of consumer electrical goods.
China coronavirus toll rises
to 259, U.S. border curbs disrupt more flights
February 1, 2020 / 12:55 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - The number of deaths
from a coronavirus epidemic in China has risen to 259, the country’s health
authority said on Saturday, as the United States announced new border curbs on
foreign nationals who have been in China.
The province
of Hubei, the center of the epidemic, remains under virtual quarantine, with
roads sealed off and public transport shut down, but small numbers of travelers
continue to breach the lockdown.
Amid fears
that the virus could spread further overseas, the United States announced
measures to restrict entry to foreign nationals who have recently been in
China. All three major U.S. airlines also said on Friday they would cancel
flights to mainland China.
Qantas
Airways Ltd and Air New Zealand said the international travel bans had forced
them to suspend their direct flights to China from Feb. 9.
Nearly
10,000 flights have been suspended since the outbreak of the coronavirus in
China, according to travel and data analytics firm Cirium.
Many nations
have put on special charter flights to repatriate citizens from China.
More than
300 South Koreans arrived home on Saturday on a second charter flight from China
and have been transported to a facility where they will be isolated for two
weeks, the health ministry said. Seven people on the flight exhibited symptoms
and were sent immediately to hospital.
More
Macau casino revenue drops
11.3 percent in January as coronavirus worries mount
February 1, 2020 / 6:16 AM
HONG
KONG(Reuters) - Gambling revenue in the Chinese territory of Macau dropped 11.3
percent in January year-on-year, with the world’s biggest casino hub a near
ghost town after authorities announced a raft of measures to keep visitors away
and contain a fast-spreading new coronavirus.
January’s
figure of 22.1 billion patacas ($2.76 billion) was worse than analyst
expectations of a drop of around 2 percent - estimates that were made prior to
the implementation of visitor restrictions last week.
Some
analysts forecast a decline of at least 30% for as long as visiting restrictions
are in place.
Transport
links with mainland China have been curtailed, with dozens of flights and ferry
services canceled. The local government has also extended the Lunar New Year
break to the end of the week, keeping banks and businesses closed as the death
toll from the virus outbreak topped 250 and hundreds of new cases were
confirmed.
Chinese tourists desert Thai
resort as coronavirus spreads
February 1, 2020 / 4:50 AM
PHUKET, Thailand (Reuters) - The narrow
laneways and pastel-coloured shophouses of Phuket Old Town are usually bustling
with Chinese tourists during the Lunar New Year holiday, but travel bans and
local fears about coronavirus have largely emptied the streets this year.
Just a
handful of tourists, many wearing face masks, strolled through the area during
daylight hours this week. In the evening, foot traffic increased a little under
the glow of the red lanterns strung across the thoroughfare, but remained far
below normal levels.
“The impact
is tremendous,” 45-year old Ausana Akaradachakul told Reuters as she waited
behind the counter for shoppers in her store selling postcards, straw bags,
clothing and jewellery.
“Only a few
days after the news broke about the virus, the Chinese tourists were visibly
few,” Akaradachakul said. “I think about 70% of them are gone.”
The beach
resort of Phuket is Thailand’s second most visited destination after Bangkok
and is usually a big draw for visitors from China, who accounted for 11 million
visitors last year, particularly around the Lunar New Year holiday.
But China
this week imposed restrictions on all overseas tour groups because of the
coronavirus that originated in the city of Wuhan and which has infected more
than 11,000 people and killed more than 250.
Reduced
travel from China alone could result in 50 billion baht ($1.52 billion) of lost
tourism revenue, the Thai Tourism Ministry estimated.
The spread
of coronavirus beyond China has also affected domestic tourism in Thailand,
which has recorded more infections than anywhere but China with 19 cases.
Thailand announced its first case of human-to-human transmission on Friday.
More
Britain reports first two
cases of new coronavirus
January 31, 2020 / 9:44 AM
LONDON
(Reuters) - Two patients from the same family in England have tested positive
for coronavirus, the first such cases in Britain, England’s chief medical
officer said on Friday.
British
health officials had previously warned that the United Kingdom was highly
likely to have cases of the new type of coronavirus, which first emerged in
China’s central province of Hubei and has killed 213 people so far.
“The
patients are receiving specialist National Health Service care, and we are
using tried and tested infection control procedures to prevent further spread
of the virus,” England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, said.
“The NHS is
extremely well-prepared and used to managing infections and we are already
working rapidly to identify any contacts the patients had, to prevent further
spread,” he added.
Whitty said
he would not reveal where in England the infection had occurred, to protect
patient confidentiality.
More
Singapore bans China
travellers to keep out coronavirus
January 31, 2020 / 10:44 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Singapore said on Friday it was banning entry to all Chinese
visitors and foreigners with a recent history of travel to China in some of the
most far-reaching moves worldwide to deter the fast-spreading coronavirus.
The ban,
effective from Saturday, will also apply to transiting passengers but will
exempt residents and long-term pass holders such as those on work permits,
student visas or long-term visit passes, the health ministry said.
The move to
suspend visas to mainland Chinese passport holders effectively shuts out the
island’s largest group of visitors and will also bar other travellers who have
been to China in the last 14 days.
---- Singapore has
reported 13 cases of the virus - all travellers from the Chinese city of Wuhan at
the
centre of the outbreak - and has warned that the outbreak will hit its
economy this year just as it shows signs of recovery from decade-low growth.
“In view of
the growing possibility of transmission from new travellers arriving from other
parts of mainland China, the Ministry of Health has assessed that it is prudent
to take additional pre-emptive measures at this stage,” the ministry said in a
statement.
Chinese
nationals make up the largest share of visitors to the Southeast Asian travel
and tourism hub, one of the worst hit countries outside of China in the 2003
outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which killed 800 people
globally.
More
Travellers breach China virus
lockdown by taking bridge over Yangtze
January 31, 2020 / 6:53 AM
JIUJIANG, China (Reuters) - People are
leaving and entering China’s Hubei province by foot over a bridge spanning the
Yangtze river despite a virtual lockdown on vehicle traffic due to a
coronavirus epidemic that has killed about 200 people.
The Yangtze
marks the dividing line between Jiujiang in Jiangxi province and Huanggang in
neighbouring Hubei, one of the cities hit hardest by the coronavirus outbreak
and now sealed off from the rest of China to try to contain the pathogen.
But the foot
traffic over the Yangtze shows the lockdown is permeable, raising doubts over
its effectiveness and providing a glimpse at life inside the epicentre of what
the World Health Organisation (WHO) has called a global emergency.
Wu Minzhou,
a 40-year-old business owner who was fishing near the bridge on the Jiangxi
side, said he was worried about the exceptions being made for people leaving
Hubei.
“Because there’s
an ... incubation period at play here, if they head out, for example, to cities
in the north of China then it’s highly possible they will infect those areas
too,” he said.
While
vehicles are not allowed over the bridge, it is still open to pedestrians.
Police explained that people were still entering Hubei and they could still get
out, but only in “special circumstances”.
Those
include people who were in Hubei but booked train tickets to leave from
Jiujiang before the Lunar New Year.
---- Trains and other public transportation have
been suspended, roads have been sealed off and checkpoints established at
tollgates around Wuhan, and the special measures have been extended to other
cities in Hubei province.
Though
Jiujiang itself has not officially been locked down, its streets were mostly
deserted and its tourist sites closed on what was officially the last day of
China’s Lunar New Year celebrations on Thursday.
More
Surge in virus infections stokes
fear in cities flanking China's Wuhan
January 31, 2020 / 11:22 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - A jump in infections in two Chinese cities flanking Wuhan, the
epicentre of a rapidly-spreading virus epidemic, is fuelling fear that new hot
spots are emerging in a province where strict transport curbs have already
brought most activity to a halt.
China’s
central province of Hubei has been the site of almost 60% of infections, as
well as more than 95% of deaths, in an episode the World Health Organization
has declared a global health emergency.
But the
province’s two cities of Huanggang and Xiaogan, with combined populations of
more than 12 million, have racked up more than 11% of global infections and
deaths.
To see graphic, please click here
As the virus
in these cities spreads faster than in Wuhan itself and other sites outside a
lockdown zone, the first dismissal of a senior health official in Hubei has
spurred authorities to push for more effective measures.
“Medical
supplies are in very short supply,” provincial governor Wang Xiaodong said.
“Not only are there shortages in Wuhan and surrounding cities, but they are
generally severely deficient in other parts of the province.”
Conditions
in Huanggang, which had reported 573 infections and 12 deaths, are particularly
severe, he warned in remarks on Wednesday, urging every effort to keep the city
from becoming a second Wuhan.
---- To the northwest of Wuhan is Xiaogan, the
third-largest centre of the outbreak, which has reported more than 540 cases
and nine deaths and saw a rise of 35% in cases on Thursday from the previous
day, versus 16% in Wuhan.
By Friday,
there were 9,692 infections in China and 213 deaths, including 5,806 cases and
204 deaths in Hubei, national health authorities said.
More
Finally, in business news, is
Caterpillar the canary in America’s economy coal mine? The rump EU slows, and we
still have the hit to the global economy from coronavirus to come.
Caterpillar's earnings add to
industrial gloom
January 31, 2020 / 12:12 PM
(Reuters) - Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N)
on Friday forecast worse-than-expected earnings for this year after reporting
lower sales across all three primary segments in the last quarter, offering
further evidence of strains in the U.S. industrial economy.
The world’s
biggest construction and mining equipment maker said it expects 2020 profit of
$8.50 to $10 per share, lower than $11.06 per share last year and below the
average analyst estimate of $10.63 per share.
The
Deerfield, Illinois-based company, considered a bellwether for economic
activity, has been buffeted by the prolonged U.S.-China trade war that has made
its customers wary of committing to large capital expenditures, hitting its
sales and forcing production cuts.
With
customers hesitant to spend on new equipment, dealers reduced their inventories
by $700 million in the quarter to end-December, leading to a drop in sales at
machinery, energy and transport division.
The company expects as much as an annual
9% decline in retail sales this year, resulting in a reduction of up to $1.5
billion in dealer inventories.
More
Eurozone Growth Hits 6-Year
Low as Key Automobile Industry Struggles
Economists don’t expect a
pickup in economic growth this year, although the manufacturing sector is
expected to steady
The eurozone’s automobile sector is
struggling with a cooling market and the cost of developing electric cars.
Photo:
ralph orlowski/Reuters
The eurozone’s economy slowed sharply in 2019 as factories
faltered amid weak overseas demand and its key automobile industry struggled to
get to grips with a cooling market and the costs of developing a new generation
of electric cars.
The bloc’s economic weakness also
reflects longer-term problems, including an aging and stagnant population, a
weak presence in faster-growing digital sectors and problems coordinating its
responses to those and other challenges across its 19 member countries.
Economists don’t expect a pickup in
economic growth in 2020, although the manufacturing sector is expected to
steady as global trade flows level out, aided in part by the recent trade truce
between the U.S. and China. But they also say the economy could slow further if
trade tensions with the U.S. escalate and the U.K.’s
departure from the European Union on Friday leaves the future of
commerce with one of the eurozone’s main export markets uncertain.
The European Union’s statistics
agency said Friday the eurozone’s gross domestic product—the value of all goods
and services produced across the economy—grew 1.2% last year, its weakest
expansion since 2013, when the currency area was emerging from its twin
government debt and banking crises.
That slowdown was in keeping with a
wider global pattern, with the U.S. and China also having recorded
decelerations in 2019. However, the eurozone economy was significantly more
sluggish than its U.S. counterpart, which expanded by 2.3%. Overall, the global
economy had its weakest year since the global financial crisis, although the
International Monetary Fund expects to see a modest pickup in 2020.
----Eurozone GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 0.4% in the three months
through December, its weakest expansion since the first quarter of 2013.
That
slowdown was partly due to surprise contractions in France and Italy. The
former performed better in the previous three quarters and grew by 1.2% over
the year as a whole. By contrast, Germany’s economy grew by just 0.6% in 2019,
while Spain’s economy expanded by 2%.
More
This weekend’s musical diversion. Mozart and a very young Russian pianist, plays
a piano concerto from memory.
Mozart,
Piano Concerto No 3 in D major Елисей Мысин Young pianist and composer
'You
just never know. That unpredictability is the great thing about life. You
change. The world changes. You live in a country where we are still blessed
with enormous opportunity. Leave yourself open to the world of possibility. You
have the ambition, you have the smarts and you have the toughness. So, turn the
page on your biography - you have just started a new chapter in your lives.'
Lloyd Blankfein, “Mr. Goldman Sacks,” the ex-CEO of Goldman
Sachs unintentionally backs Brexit in a US speech to graduates, mid 2016.
The monthly Coppock Indicators
finished January
DJIA: 28,256
+97 Up. NASDAQ: 9,151 +152 Up. SP500: 3,226 +130 Up.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is
all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I
continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all
the more urgent by the still increasing coronavirus crisis.
