Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Delusion.

Baltic Dry Index. 706 -09

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs

On Tuesday morning, private and official lenders to Greece made extra concessions that should bring down Greece's debts from the levels cited in the report. But that didn't soften criticism that even a glum IMF assessment lacked credibility. Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, a financial think tank, said the IMF had engaged in "arithmetical gymnastics" to produce the assumptions to get Greece's debt target down to the targeted 120.5% of gross domestic product by 2020—a level many analysts still consider too high. Greek government debt now stands at more than 164%.

Greece opted for slavery and effectively put the country under Berlin’s rule, and still it isn’t enough. This morning, one day on, outside of Europe’s delusional politicians and criminal banksters, no one believes that Greece can be saved by the latest announced rescue plan. In the markets most believe Greece will have exited the Euro by the end of the year. What is the point of a non-rescue rescue? Below, the Journal, Telegraph, and Bloomberg cover the reality of yesterday’s non rescue. But now the great Germanic victory parade rolls on towards Lisbon and Madrid. Stay long precious metals, the euro as we know it is dying. For the hapless Europeans trapped in the Euro, keep swapping notes bearing country IDs “Y”, “P”, “S”, “G” and “V” for those with Germany’s “X”. Even the French “U” is questionable.

A German joke is no laughing matter.

Mark Twain.

FEBRUARY 22, 2012

Despite Pact, Unease Lingers for Greece

Agreement Staves Off Immediate Concerns, but Many Problems Remain Even Under Best-Case Scenarios

No triumphalism accompanied Greece's bailout and debt-restructuring deal hammered out early Tuesday; the euro zone's two-year debt crisis has seen too many false dawns.

Financial markets were somewhat cheered that months of negotiations aimed at cutting Greece's heavy debt had reached a resolution, largely putting to rest fears of a chaotic debt default next month. It also removed—at least for the immediate future—the gnawing anxiety that some policy makers in Germany and elsewhere are trying to oust Greece from the euro.

But the overriding reaction was of unease that this tough deal, which has already generated huge opposition among Greeks, is bound to fail. Many observers ask not if the program will fall apart, but when.

----Tuesday's agreement isn't quite the end of Greece's near-term debt concerns. Private investors will be asked to tender their old bonds for new, which will force some to crystallize losses of perhaps three-quarters of their investments.

If enough bondholders don't agree—the agreement assumes 95% participation—holdouts will be forced into the bond swap, a process that in past sovereign restructurings has generated multiple lawsuits. In Athens, a new law was unveiled Tuesday that could be invoked to strong-arm holdouts.

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203358704577236532135919266.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews

Battle over EU financial firewall threatens to derail Greek bailout

A battle over an increased eurozone bail-out fund and International Monetary Fund support for the European Union's single currency threatens to derail the latest Greek bailout.

At a G20 summit in Mexico in two days the EU will plead for increased IMF contributions by non-euro countries to help shore up a eurozone "financial firewall" seen as vital to protecting Spain and Italy from Greek debt contagion.

The IMF will refuse to make extra cash available to the EU and will threaten to pull the plug on its contribution to Tuesday's €130bn bailout of Greece unless the eurozone creates a €750bn fund, a move opposed by Germany.

In the wake of this week's deal to prevent a Greek default, Olli Rehn, the EU's economic and monetary affairs commissioner, insisted that a plan to merge two eurozone bailout funds was vital over the next 10 days. Mr Rehn is seeking to fuse the existing European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) fund, worth €250bn, with a new European Stability Mechanism (ESM), to be created this summer and worth €500bn.

Greek Rescue Leaves Europe Default Risk Alive

By Simon Kennedy and James G. Neuger - Feb 21, 2012 12:51 PM GMT

Europe is still struggling to avoid the threat of default as investors warned Greece will soon risk violating the terms of its second bailout in three years.

Seven months of negotiations ended in the pre-dawn hours in Brussels with Greece winning 130 billion euros ($172 billion) in aid it needs to avoid a March bankruptcy. Any respite may prove temporary after it signed up to a program of austerity and economic reform aimed at slashing debt to 120.5 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 from about 160 percent last year.

Even with investors and central bankers chipping in to relieve the debt burden, economists from Citigroup Inc. to Commerzbank AG concluded Greece may again fail to deliver amid a fifth year of recession, looming elections and social unrest. The upshot could be the removal of aid and renewed debate over the merits of fresh assistance before year-end as policy makers shift toward doing more to inoculate the rest of Europe.

----In return for the new cash, Greece signed up to cuts in pensions, the minimum wage, health-care and defense spending, as well as layoffs of state employees and asset sales. It must implement that austerity with unemployment already topping 20 percent, meaning more retrenchment might end up only compounding the debt stress.

“The danger of Greece saving itself into economic depression and having to default and exit the common currency zone remains substantial,” said Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London. Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics Ltd. repeated her forecast that Greece will quit the euro by the end of the year.

Again, it may be said that we need not be alarmed at the magnitude of our credit system or at its refinement, for that we have learned by experience the way of controlling it, and always manage it with discretion. But we do not always manage it with discretion. There is the astounding instance of Overend, Gurney, and Co. to the contrary. Ten years ago that house stood next to the Bank of England in the City of London; it was better known abroad than any similar firm—known, perhaps, better than any purely English firm. The partners had great estates, which had mostly been made in the business. They still derived an immense income from it. Yet in six years they lost all their own wealth, sold the business to the company, and then lost a large part of the company's capital. And these losses were made in a manner so reckless and so foolish, that one would think a child who had lent money in the City of London would have lent it better. After this example, we must not confide too surely in long-established credit, or in firmly-rooted traditions of business. We must examine the system on which these great masses of money are manipulated, and assure ourselves that it is safe and right.

Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873

To continue reading subscribe to the LIR at Currency Countdown.
http://www.proedgenet.com/Subscribe/Subscription.php?id=LIR2



Tuesday, 21 February 2012

Greece Wiped Out.

Baltic Dry Index. 715 -02

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs

First they came for the communists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.

Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.

Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.

Pastor Martin Niemöller

After 182 years, Greece is an independent state no more. The giant German financial war machine that is now effectively in control of Euroland, crushed the Greeks under their heel yesterday, when sold out by a fawning and appeasing French President and their own German imposed Prime Minister, Greece agreed to humiliating German terms for a “bailout” that isn’t. Greece will still go on to default. In return for the promise of 130 billion euro to be put into escrow to be paid mostly to French and German banksters, Greek politicians sold out their fellow Greeks into effective slavery. Under the present plan, Greece can never resurrect itself financially. At best, Greece will still have a debt to GDP ratio of 120.5% in 2020. More likely much higher due to a German imposed depression. Greece can never regain financial independence. The Greek people forced into a German dictated decades long depression.

We open today with the great French “Marche de Triomphe,” saluting the great German victory parade. At the head, conquering Fuehrer Merkel leading armies of fawning Brussels and ECB burueacrats, plus the Princelings of Holland and Finland. In their train hundreds of fawning appeasing European politicians lead by Quisling Sarkozy, all hoping desperately to escape a similar fate while begging for German cash to keep them elected. Bringing up the rear as the victory parade heads off to Lisbon, Madrid and Rome to complete the rout of the Mediterranean peoples, 8 million hapless impoverished Greek slaves, all too soon to be joined by Ports, Spanish and Italians. If Britain, America and Japan, don’t get their affairs in order soon, it’s what awaits us too even if at the hands of different creditor nations and banksters. Capitalism it aint! Whatever happened to caveat emptor.

Below the great French Marche de Triomphe by Charpentier. Why a French triumphant march? Well no one’s heard it since Napoleon’s days and not since 1815. Besides, German triumphant marches became over used in the last century, even if they haven’t been heard since Stalingrad. Listen and weep for the ordinary Greek people. It took their criminal politicians, banksters and vampire squids 30 years of deceit to entrap their population. Shylock Germany when it got the chance demanded almost instant repayment, despite Greece waving war reparations in the early 50s. The United States of Europe is dead. February 21, 2012 is a date that will live on in infamy. Nothing in Europe will ever be the same after today.

“It's no exaggeration to say that today is a historic day for the Greek economy”

Lucas Papademos. German imposed Greek Prime Minister

(Best with headphones.)

Charpentier - Marche de Triomphe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snxUHRaGTuA&feature=related

Eurozone agrees €130bn bail-out for Greece

The eurozone has agreed a second €130bn (£109bn) Greek bailout after asking private investors to take bigger losses on Greece's debt and by further stripping the country of sovereignty over its finances.

---- Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s Prime Minister and the chairman of the eurogroup of finance ministers, warned Greece that the bailout would require unpopular austerity measures.

“We expect the unprecedented solidarity of Greece's partners to be matched by a strong commitment by Greek leaders to fully implement their austerity programme,” he said

---- In return for the new bailout, Greece must implement a savage austerity programme, accept an “enhanced and permanent” presence of EU officials supervising Greek finances and set up a blocked account with three months debt interest payments in it at any time.

“The Greek economy can no longer rely on a large administration financed by cheap debt, but by investment to facilities new growth and jobs,” said Olli Rehn, the EU’s economic and monetary affairs commissioner.

However the agreement was overshadowed by the pessimistic debt sustainability report compiled by the IMF, ECB and Commission, that warned of a “downside scenario” of Greek debt hitting 160pc of GDP in 2020 - far higher that the agreed 120.5pc target.

Under the troika's downside modelling, Greece would need an extra €245bn in bail-out aid, almost twice the aid package under discussion last night.

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 35.07 Moz, Eligible 93.73 Moz, Total 128.80 Moz. Comex closed yesterday.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, the Great Stain on Europe. Greece effectively wiped off the nation states of Europe by French fawning and appeasement of Germany, and all to save French and German banksters. For bailing out banksters were the hapless Greek people sold into modern financial slavery, and their financial affairs removed from their own hands and passed to the new Ottomans in Berlin. Greece will default yet. This European Monetary Union will go the way of all monetary unions, sped up now by the fact that now no one in Europe trusts anyone else, especially Germany.

"Ελευθερία ή Θάνατος", "Freedom or Death"

The Greek War of Independence

In 1814, a secret organization called the Filiki Eteria was founded with the aim of liberating Greece. The Filiki Eteria planned to launch revolution in the Peloponnese, the Danubian Principalities and Constantinople. The first of these revolts began on 6 March 1821 in the Danubian Principalities under the leadership of Alexandros Ypsilantis, but it was soon put down by the Ottomans. The events in the north urged the Greeks in the Peloponnese in action and on 17 March 1821 the Maniots declared war on the Ottomans. By the end of the month, the Peloponnese was in open revolt against the Ottomans and by October 1821 the Greeks under Theodoros Kolokotronis had captured Tripolitsa. The Peloponnesian revolt was quickly followed by revolts in Crete, Macedonia and Central Greece, which would soon be suppressed. Meanwhile, the makeshift Greek navy was achieving success against the Ottoman navy in the Aegean Sea and prevented Ottoman reinforcements from arriving by sea.

Tensions soon developed among different Greek factions, leading to two consecutive civil wars. Meanwhile, the Ottoman Sultan negotiated with Mehmet Ali of Egypt, who agreed to send his son Ibrahim Pasha to Greece with an army to suppress the revolt in return for territorial gain. Ibrahim landed in the Peloponnese in February 1825 and had immediate success: by the end of 1825, most of the Peloponnese was under Egyptian control, and the city of Missolonghi—put under siege by the Turks since April 1825—fell in April 1826. Although Ibrahim was defeated in Mani, he had succeeded in suppressing most of the revolt in the Peloponnese and Athens had been retaken.

Following years of negotiation, three Great Powers, Russia, the United Kingdom and France, decided to intervene in the conflict and each nation sent a navy to Greece. Following news that combined Ottoman–Egyptian fleets were going to attack the Greek island of Hydra, the allied fleet intercepted the Ottoman–Egyptian fleet at Navarino. Following a week long standoff, a battle began which resulted in the destruction of the Ottoman–Egyptian fleet. With the help of a French expeditionary force, the Greeks drove the Turks out of the Peloponnese and proceeded to the captured part of Central Greece by 1828. As a result of years of negotiation, the nascent Greek state was finally recognized under the London Protocol in 1830.

More

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January:

DJIA: +116 Down. NASDAQ: +119 Down. SP500: +90 Down.

The Dow and SP 500 and NASDAQ have all reversed from up to down.

To continue reading subscribe to the LIR at Currency Countdown.
http://www.proedgenet.com/Subscribe/Subscription.php?id=LIR2

Friday, 17 February 2012

Germany Blinks!

Baltic Dry Index. 723 -08

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs

One of the queries Quakers are asked to consider, is: "Do you maintain strict integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public revenue?"

Probably why there a no Quakers on Wall Street.

With rising disgust across Europe at Germany’s diktats on Greece, and visible daily increasing signs of distress among the Greek public, German politicians blinked first yesterday in their standoff with Greece. A Greek Friday night exit from the euro now is postponed from tonight, although if someone doesn’t pass Greece some money fast a default next month is still highly likely. Below, Germany scrambles back from forcing a Greek exit but with its reputation in tatters. If this is a German lead Europe, nobody needs it.

Bah humbug!

Chancellor Merkel, with apologies to Ebenezer Scrooge.

FEBRUARY 17, 2012

Germany, Bank Ease Tensions on Bailout

A debt restructuring and second bailout for Greece appeared likely to go ahead according to plan, as German officials on Thursday scrapped an idea to pressure Greece by withholding part of the bailout and the European Central Bank developed a plan to protect its holdings of Greek bonds from the restructuring.

Weeks of uncertainty about the fate of the bailout—inflamed by the last-minute idea of splitting it in two— have unnerved investors seeking assurance that euro-zone governments and the International Monetary Fund will approve the second bailout and prevent a chaotic Greek default in March.

Euro-zone officials had been considering the idea of approving only enough of the €130 billion ($169.9 billion) loan package needed to launch a bond swap with Greece's private-sector creditors. The idea gained momentum after some Greek politicians who voted for the new austerity legislation on Monday morning—a condition set by the euro zone and the IMF for handing over the second loan package—said the measures could be renegotiated later.

----Greece is planning to introduce collective-action clauses into its bond contracts that will allow a majority of its bondholders to force all holders to participate in the exchange. To ensure its bonds aren't forced into the exchange, the ECB, which holds around €50 billion of Greek bonds, will swap its existing bonds for new Greek bonds that won't contain these clauses, a person familiar with the situation said Thursday.

ECB officials have steadfastly refused to take losses on their Greek bonds, saying their charter forbids the central bank from financing governments. Instead, the bank is likely to redistribute profit it will earn when its Greek bonds are repaid in full

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204792404577226782139716096.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Next, the grim reality forced austerity has brought to Greece.

Just as Greece complies at last, Europe pulls the plug

Officials from the EU and the International Monetary Fund made two grave errors when they swooped into Greece in mid-2010 and dictated the now hated "Memorandum".

The regime of drastic cuts has tipped the economy into a violent downward spiral. They thought that private industry would muddle through as the state went through the austerity mincer. What the EU-IMF "Troika" did not fully understand is how many firms were really part of the state in disguise.

"The Greek government outsources everything," said one official with close knowledge of the events.

Faced with the guillotine, the state first slashed procurement contracts and then stopped paying its bills altogether. The government is now €7bn (£5.8bn) in arrears to private companies, including €3bn in unpaid VAT refunds for exporters. It is why business has borne the brunt of the fiscal squeeze, suffering 450,000 job losses, and why Greece's unemployment has soared to 21pc.

At the same time the banking system seized up. More than €60bn of deposits were withdrawn. By November, no Greek bank could issue a letter of credit accepted anywhere in the world, with calamitous implications for trade – and for exporters trying to meet Troika demands for export-led recovery. "Greece became a leper, and is now stuck in Catch-22," said one official.

Hellenic Petroleum was unable to import basic fuel. The reason why Greece's reliance on oil imports from Iran jumped from 15pc to 70pc in a two-week period in November was because Tehran agreed to take on the credit risk.

China wants say in World Bank choice

By Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing February 16, 2012 3:54 pm

China has said that the next World Bank president should be chosen on merit, seeking to challenge a tradition that the bank’s chief be a US citizen, though it did not suggest a candidate.

Robert Zoellick said on Wednesday that he would step down in June at the end of a five-year term as bank president. Speculation has focused on Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, and Larry Summers, former White House chief economic adviser, as potential successors.

Emerging markets have said before that there is no justification for the custom of reserving the bank’s top position for an American. Some wonder whether China, the world’s second-largest economy, might put forward a candidate.

“China hopes that the next president of the World Bank will be selected based on the principle of merit in an open and fair competition,” Liu Weimin, foreign ministry spokesman, said in a news briefing.

That was also China’s position last year when the International Monetary Fund was searching for a new chief, a job which has traditionally gone to a European. However, Beijing did not proposed a candidate for that position and, in the end, it supported the appointment of France’s Christine Lagarde.

More

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/805a0ce2-58af-11e1-b9c6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1mcqWHl4o

"Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible - forms which only the precious metals provide."

Elgin Groseclose

Chinese goldbugs to overtake India as world's biggest gold consumers

China will this year topple India as the world's biggest gold consumer, as demand for the metal as both a "safe haven" and to use for jewellery keeps growing, according to the World Gold Council.

The industry body said 770 tonnes of gold were bought in China last year, 20pc more than in 2010. That left the world's second biggest economy trailing only India, with 933 tonnes bought.

Rising incomes in China mean that in addition to greater purchasing power for gold jewellery, people are increasingly turning to the precious metal as an investment, particularly given the weakness of the country's property sector.

Worldwide demand for gold last year hit 4,067 tonnes, worth an estimated $205.5bn - the first time the figure has passed the $200bn mark. Investment buying drove the rise, with demand up 5pc on the previous year.

Germany and Switzerland were the main drivers of growth in gold demand in Europe, as the continued eurozone turmoil saw people turning to the metal as a store for their wealth.

Central banks remained net buyers of the metal. Their purchases rose from 77 tonnes in 2010 to 440 tonnes, seen as reflecting a need to protect national wealth.

Gold demand tops $200bn in 2011 – WGC

6th February 2012

PERTH (miningweekly.com) – Global gold demand topped the $200-billion mark for the first time ever in 2011, with demand increasing to 4 067 t, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported on Thursday.

This was also the highest tonnage level since 1997.

The WGC said that the main driver for this increase was the investment sector, where yearly demand reached 1 640 t during the year, up 5% from the previous record set in 2010, and valued at around $82.9-billion.

Demand for gold bars and coins also continued to be robust, climbing by 24% to 1 486 t.

India remained the largest source for demand with 933 t, which the WGC said was notable, considering the volatility of the gold price and the weakness of the Indian rupee against the US dollar during the second half of the year.

----In China, yearly demand of 769.8 t was up 20% year-on-year as a result of increases in both jewellery and investment. The largest rise was in investment, where demand of 258.9 t with the value of RMB84.5-billion leapt 69%.

Chinese jewellery demand increased every quarter of last year and was the largest single jewellery market worldwide for the second half of 2011.

The WGC noted that Europe also showed a surge in demand, with the region posting is seventh consecutive yearly gain at 374.8 t.

More

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/gold-demand-tops-200bn-in-2011---wgc-2012-02-16

“What we can see from these 2011 figures is that there were two main factors driving the results: Asian growth and optimism on the one hand and western desire to protect assets against uncertainty on the other. Looking particularly at Asia, there was a major boost to the overall figures from the increase in Chinese demand, which is a trend that we see continuing over the next year. It is likely that China will emerge as the largest gold market in the world for the first time in 2012 demand terms. What is certain is that the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, with a diverse and growing demand base, coupled with constrained supply side activity.”

Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment World Gold Council.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 34.50 Moz, Eligible 94.82 Moz, Total 129.32 Moz.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No squids and bankster crooks today, though there’s plenty hitting the news on both sides of the Atlantic. No today the spotlight is on Tesco, the UK’s leading giant supermarket chain by far. Ever wonder how they make all those billions in profits.

Because sometimes the only way you can feel good about yourself is by making someone else look bad. And I'm tired of making other people feel good about themselves.

Phil Clarke, with apologies to Homer Simpson.

Simon English: It's not slavery – you get a job interview at Tesco

Friday 17 February 2012

Outlook This is from a Job Centre in East Anglia offering night shifts at Tesco in return for Job Seeker's Allowance – ie nothing.

Tesco says: "The advert is a mistake caused by an IT error by Jobcentre Plus and is being rectified. It is an advert for work experience with a guaranteed job interview at the end of it as part of a government-led work experience scheme."

So it's happy to exploit young people seeking "work experience" in return for a "guaranteed job interview" (gee, thanks) but it doesn't take part in the mandatory JSA scheme that sees the unemployed bullied into slavery in return for keeping their benefits.

Tesco got slapped all over Twitter for this egregious advert yesterday and credit where it is due, it turns out not to be quite as mean as it could be.

The truth is that Tesco gives a higher level of basic pay than other supermarkets – £7 an hour and they are fools to themselves – and its benefits package remains one of the best around.

Still, no one had any difficulty in believing that Tesco was happy to endorse servitude.

The chief executive Phil Clarke might want to think about why this is so.

Read

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/simon-english-its-not-slavery--you-get-a-job-interview-at-tesco-6989003.html

I like work: it fascinates me. I can sit and look at it for hours.
Jerome K Jerome

Another weekend, and for those not standing in line to get jobs at Tesco paying £7.00 an hour before tax, another weekend to try guessing just when Greece crashes out of the euro closing Europe’s banks for a bank holiday. Memo to self get out some more cash. It’s the last weekend too to feast and party. At least for the world’s Christians heading into Lent next week. Memo to self finish off the champagne. Have a great weekend everyone. Good luck at Tesco’s.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January:

DJIA: +116 Down. NASDAQ: +119 Down. SP500: +90 Down.

The Dow and SP 500 and NASDAQ have all reversed from up to down.

To continue reading subscribe to the LIR at Currency Countdown.
http://www.proedgenet.com/Subscribe/Subscription.php?id=LIR2