Friday, 23 September 2016

DB, Going, Going….

Baltic Dry Index. 937 +34    Brent Crude 47.27

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.

Count Otto Von Bismarck.

We open today with America’s Bloomberg raising red flags over Germany’s largest bank. The undeclared trade war between America and Europe ratchets up a notch. No one wins, of course, in a house divided and at war, all the more so in a Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, now going so disastrously wrong.  But for now, no one anywhere on the planet is willing to try to reform the calamitous global fiat monetary system rushing towards catastrophe when the next recession hits. For now, each nation or currency block, still thinks it can successfully game the system and come out on top. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver held outside of the bankster houses.

I suspect that once November 8th passes, whatever the outcome of the US election, our fiat currency world is in for a dose of all too harsh reality. Tomorrow will not be like today which was like yesterday. Tomorrow the bill comes due for President Nixon’s 1971 free lunch.

People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.

Count Otto Von Bismarck.

Deutsche Bank Woes Sparks Concern Among German Lawmakers

September 22, 2016 — 5:14 PM BST Updated on September 22, 2016 — 6:55 PM BST
Deutsche Bank AG’s finances, weakened by low profitability and mounting legal costs, are raising concern among German politicians after the U.S. sought $14 billion to settle claims related to the sale of mortgage-backed securities.

At a closed session of Social Democratic finance lawmakers this week, Deutsche Bank’s woes came up alongside a debate over Basel financial rules, according to two people familiar with the matter. Participants discussed the U.S. fine and the financial reserves at Deutsche Bank’s disposal if it had to cover the full amount, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the meeting on Tuesday was private.

While the participants -- members of the junior party in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government -- didn’t reach any conclusions on the likely outcome, the discussion signals that the risks have the attention of Germany’s political establishment. The German Finance Ministry last week called on the U.S. to ensure a “fair outcome” for Deutsche Bank, citing cases against other banks where the government settled for reduced fines. A spokesman for Deutsche Bank declined to comment.

Pressure on Germany’s biggest lender has increased since German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Bloomberg Television on Feb. 9 that he has “no concerns about Deutsche Bank.”

Germany’s biggest bank was already ranked among the worst-capitalized lenders in European stress tests before U.S. authorities demanded $14 billion during initial talks to settle a probe into how it handled mortgage securities during the 2008 financial crisis. The announcement led Deutsche Bank’s riskiest bonds to plunge.

Since February, the bank’s shares have dropped to record lows amid investor concern that the lender is running out of options to boost capital. It’s struggling to sell Postbank, its German retail unit, and the disposal of its British insurance business has been drawn out by a regulatory inquiry. At $14 billion, the U.S. claim would cost the bank more than twice the 5.5 billion euros ($6.2 billion) it’s set aside for litigation. The bank has said it doesn’t intend to pay anywhere near that amount.

It Appears Deutsche Bank Is Prepping for an Avalanche of Fraud Charges Including It's Gold Derivative Products?

by Reggie Middleton Sep 4, 2016 8:58 AM
We have forensically picked apart Deutsche Bank in a way that no other entity ever has, likely including Deutsche Bank itself. While we may not know all of its secrets, we likely now know more than almost everybody else.
More. Much, much, more.

In other news, even main stream media has now picked up on the reality of the Emperor’s new clothes.  I would merely substitute “is losing” with “has lost” in the headline below. We are living in the dying days of a fool’s paradise. Unrepayable debt was not and is not wealth. Modern mass media culture, is merely leading towards violent anarchy, in both America and migrant mad continental Europe.  But I’ll leave the last word on the Fedster’s and central banksters nakedness to Maestro Stockman.

Why the Fed is losing credibility

Published: Sept 22, 2016 3:21 p.m. ET

How often can Fed lay out case for rate hike and then not follow through, asks observer

For the second time this year, Federal Reserve officials pointed to a looming rate hike and then pulled back, actions which have left the central bank “perilously close” to losing its credibility with the markets.

“There are only so many times you can lay out the case to act and then do nothing and still expect to maintain your credibility,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp. in Birmingham, Alabama.

“If not there yet, the Fed is perilously close to being there,” he added.

The Fed on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged but Chairwoman Janet Yellen said one increase is “appropriate” this year barring any major new risks to the economy.

While many analysts argue Yellen’s statement lays the groundwork for a rate hike in December, doubts remain. Minutes of the Fed’s April meeting pointed to a rate hike in June but the central bank pulled back after a weak May job report.

While Yellen’s statement may be the intended to point to a move by the end of the year, “we can’t help but think leaving a three-month window simply leaves three months for something to go wrong and preclude a December rate hike,” Moody said.

Economists at Goldman Sachs agreed that a December rate hike was not a done deal.

“As [Wednesday’s] decision showed, when faced with conflicting signals, a committee focused on risk management will be inclined to hold fire,” said Zach Pandl, a senior economist for Goldman Sachs.
Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, said, in order to hike in December, the Fed will have to be able to say, as it did in its statement Wednesday, that the labor market “has continued to strengthen” and the consumer has been “growing strongly.”

“If that materializes you theoretically get a hike - unless, of course, something pops up that derails them.”
“For those with short memories, please keep in mind this Fed is easily derailed.”

Duck And Run—-The Robot Doth Blather

by David Stockman • 
Listening to Janet Yellen splitting hairs and blathering in circles about the state of the economy yesterday was enough to put you in mind of a paint-by-the-numbers robot built in the labs at MIT and programed by its Keynesian economics department. After all, the latter has also inflicted on the world Paul Samuelson, Stanley Fischer, and his infamous student, Ben Bernanke.

So why not a four-fer?

There is only one question that Yellen needs to answer and then all else is readily explained. To wit, does she actually believe that the money market rate——as formerly measured by Fed funds before Bernanke nationalized the interbank market in September 2008——is a wholly owned property of the FOMC?

Or does the overnight rate possibly have some measure of significance as a “price” in the financial system? And one that, in fact, is linked to the rest of the so-called yield curve, and from there to converts, equities, options/derivatives and the whole of the price discovery process in the money and capital markets.

Less than a decade ago almost every financially literate person knew the Fed funds rate—-even if increasingly massaged by the FOMC—- was a financial price and that it transmitted market signals throughout the financial system. So consider the implications of the Fed’s decision to keep it pinned to the zero bound for what will soon be 96 months running.

In a word, Yellen and her posse of Keynesian monetary central planners are apparently willing to drastically falsify the price of money and all that derives from it—-such as the bond market carry trades and the massive churning in the options pits—-on a virtually permanent basis.

And for what purported macroeconomic gains?

In a word, to achieve hairline increases in the inflation rate, when there is already too much inflation; and to nudge unspecified reductions in the US labor market’s “slack”, when the latter is almost surely beyond the reach of monetary policy in any event.

Stated differently, Yellen proved again yesterday—-and painfully so if you were watching her presser—that she is so robotically focussed on achieving fractional decimal point gains on the Fed’s so-called Humphrey-Hawkins “mandates” that she can’t see the forest for the trees.

The fact is, ZIRP is planting multi-trillion dollar FEDs (financial explosive devices) throughout the entire financial system. Yet the FOMC majority still claims that there are no bubbles in sight.

Thus, the Yellen Fed is embracing giant financial risks for pure macroeconomic trivia. For instance, even if you assume that 2.00% inflation is some kind of magic economic elixir, how in the world can the denizens of the Eccles Building not admit that they are already there or certainly damn close?

The regular CPI adjusted for market rents—rather than the BLS’ specious measure of OER (owners’ equivalent rents)——was up 4.5% in the most recent year, and 2.4% since 2010. Likewise, the PPI for finished consumer goods is well above the Fed’s 2.00% target on a one-year and five-year basis, as is the core CPI.

We end with the truly bizarre. I predict that no billionaire will ever not tax plan to get around the Clinton campaign’s ever more desperate ploys.

Clinton proposes 65 percent tax on U.S. billionaire estates

Thu Sep 22, 2016 | 6:22pm EDT
Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton on Thursday proposed raising taxes on inherited property to 65 percent for the largest estates as she bolstered plans for tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans.

Known by conservative opponents as the "death tax," the estate tax, levied on property such as cash, real estate, stock or other assets transferred from deceased persons to heirs, currently is imposed only on inherited assets worth $5.45 million or more for an individual.

Clinton's plan, posted on her campaign's website, would raise the estate tax from the current 40 percent to 45 percent, the rate that existed in 2009. But the biggest estates would face rates of up to 65 percent for property valued at more than $500 million for a single person or $1 billion per couple, under her proposal, an update of an earlier plan.

Clinton's proposed top rate of 65 percent would be the highest estate tax since the 1980s, and is in line with a proposal made during the Democratic primaries by her former rival for the party's presidential nomination, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders.

"For more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper."

Hans F. Sennholz
At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 31.11 Moz, Eligible 139.90 Moz, Total 171.01 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Below, the Paris based OECD eats humble pie, although “humble” and “Paris” rarely go together in an English sentence. I think that this might be a first for me. But we thank the OECD nevertheless for their part in assisting in the political suicides of Dodgy Dave Cameron, and Chancellor little boy George Osborne. More fool both of them for believing economists, especially Paris based economists.
It was economists who told the gullible Scots of a bright independent future, funded on forever rising crude oil prices in the hundreds. Architects live with their failures, doctors bury them, economists just move on to their next dismal guess at the future, while trying to make the weathermen look respectable.
"In economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."

John Kenneth Galbraith.

Brexit not as bad as feared, says OECD as it performs u-turn on 2016 growth prediction

Tim Wallace21 September 2016 • 1:32pm
Britain’s economy will hold up strongly for the rest of this year, defying warnings of an immediate Brexit collapse, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has predicted.

Performing somewhat of a post-Brexit u-turn, the international body has increased its 2016 growth forecast modestly, raising its gross domestic product (GDP) predictions from 1.7pc in its June update to 1.8pc now.
The organisation had warned of a "large negative shock" were the UK to vote to leave the EU ahead of the June 23 referendum.

Britain’s improved figure came even as the OECD trimmed its forecasts for most other large economies this year, citing weak trade growth and poor productivity.

It has however chopped predictions for UK growth in 2017 more sharply, however, from 2pc to 1pc – indicating a sharp slowdown in growth as business investment falls, but not the recession which some economists had anticipated.

At the same time the Office for National Statistics' chief economist Joe Grice said the economy has not been hit.

“As the available information grows, the referendum result appears, so far, not to have had a major effect on the UK economy. So it hasn’t fallen at the first fence but longer-term effects remain to be seen," he said.

His words came as new figures showed Britain’s budget deficit fell by almost £1bn in August, as the government borrowed £10.5bn in the month, down from £11.4bn a year earlier. The 8pc fall means this was the smallest August deficit since 2007, according to the ONS.

Tax revenues are increasing as employment is at a record high and wages are slowly rising, while growing consumer spending is increasing VAT receipts and corporation tax – all positive indicators of economic growth.

Revenues climbed to £264.6bn in the year to date, up 4pc on the year. Meanwhile spending increased to £291.7bn, up 1.3pc on the year.

As a result the deficit for the financial year to date stands at £33.8bn, down £4.9bn on the year. That 13pc fall is not as strong as the 26pc cut forecast by the official watchdog in March, however.

Chancellor Philip Hammond, who has scrapped his predecessor George Osborne’s deficit reduction targets, hailed the forecasts as an indicator that the economy can continue to do well.

OECD issues damning report on effect of Brexit

Group’s head says economic hit equivalent to Britons losing a month’s income within four years
April 27, 2016 by: Chris Giles, Economics Editor
George Osborne, UK chancellor, received another significant economic endorsement for his campaign to remain in the EU on Wednesday when the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development likened the effects of leaving to a permanent annual tax on people’s incomes. 
Ángel Gurría, the OECD’s secretary-general, said leaving the EU was “equivalent to missing out on one month’s income within four years”.
The OECD’s contribution adds to the overwhelming support from the economics profession for the UK remaining in the EU — unlike the disagreement among economists in the late 1990s over whether Britain should adopt the euro.
The report differs from the Treasury’s analysis in seeking to estimate both the short-term effect of leaving the EU on economic growth and the longer-term consequences.
Its central scenario estimates that the uncertainty caused by Britain seeking to leave the EU by late 2018 would reduce confidence and hold back spending immediately.

Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Graphene nanoribbons show promise for healing spinal injuries

Date: September 20, 2016

Source: Rice University

Summary: The combination of graphene nanoribbons made with a newly developed process and a common polymer could someday be of critical importance to healing damaged spinal cords in people, according to scientists.
The combination of graphene nanoribbons made with a process developed at Rice University and a common polymer could someday be of critical importance to healing damaged spinal cords in people, according to Rice chemist James Tour.
The Tour lab has spent a decade working with graphene nanoribbons, starting with the discovery of a chemical process to "unzip" them from multiwalled carbon nanotubes, as revealed in a Nature paper in 2009. Since then, the researchers have used them to enhance materials for the likes of deicers for airplane wings, better batteries and less-permeable containers for natural gas storage.
Now their work to develop nanoribbons for medical applications has resulted in a material dubbed Texas-PEG that may help knit damaged or even severed spinal cords.
A paper on the results of preliminary animal-model tests appears in the journal Surgical Neurology International.
Graphene nanoribbons customized for medical use by William Sikkema, a Rice graduate student and co-lead author of the paper, are highly soluble in polyethylene glycol (PEG), a biocompatible polymer gel used in surgeries, pharmaceutical products and in other biological applications. When the biocompatible nanoribbons have their edges functionalized with PEG chains and are then further mixed with PEG, they form an electrically active network that helps the severed ends of a spinal cord reconnect.
"Neurons grow nicely on graphene because it's a conductive surface and it stimulates neuronal growth," Tour said.
In experiments at Rice and elsewhere, neurons have been observed growing along graphene.
"We're not the only lab that has demonstrated neurons growing on graphene in a petri dish," he said. "The difference is other labs are commonly experimenting with water-soluble graphene oxide, which is far less conductive than graphene, or nonribbonized structures of graphene.
"We've developed a way to add water-solubilizing polymer chains to the edges of our nanoribbons that preserves their conductivity while rendering them soluble, and we're just now starting to see the potential for this in biomedical applications," he said. He added that ribbonized graphene structures allow for much smaller amounts to be used while preserving a conductive pathway that bridges the damaged spinal cords. Tour said only 1 percent of Texas-PEG consists of nanoribbons, but that's enough to form a conductive scaffold through which the spinal cord can reconnect.
Texas-PEG succeeded in restoring function in a rodent with a severed spinal cord in a procedure performed at Konkuk University in South Korea by co-authors Bae Hwan Lee and C-Yoon Kim. Tour said the material reliably allowed motor and sensory neuronal signals to cross the gap 24 hours after complete transection of the spinal cord and almost perfect motor control recovery after two weeks.
"This is a major advance over previous work with PEG alone, which gave no recovery of sensory neuronal signals over the same period of time and only 10 percent motor control over four weeks," Tour said.
The project began when Sikkema read about work by Italian neurosurgeon Sergio Canavero. Sikkema thought nanoribbons might enhance research that depended on PEG's ability to promote the fusion of cell membranes by adding electrical conductivity and directional control for neurons as they spanned the gap between sections of the spinal cord. Contact with the doctor led to a collaboration with the South Korean researchers.

Another weekend, and here in the northern hemisphere the nights get longer and colder, while the day gets shorter and colder. Last winter one of the strongest Pacific El Nino events trumped the cold winter signal from the Siberian October snow cover signal. But what will happen this winter? Will the Siberian snow cover give a signal this year? If it does, will the absence of a Pacific EL Nino make for a cold winter? If a La Nina develops, will it add to the winter’s severity? Time will tell. Have a great weekend everyone.
El Nino did trump the Siberian snow, in 2015-2016.

El Nino Might Not Save Us From Another Miserable Winter

Updated on November 13, 2015 — 2:22 PM GMT
The snow in Siberia has piled up again, and according to one theory this means cold and ice are on the way for New York and other parts of the eastern U.S. That is, if the snow can wrestle El Nino into submission.

Before the match starts with El Nino, here’s a recap of how the whole winter outlook thing works: It all starts when a large expanse of Eurasia is covered by snow by the end of October, said Judah Cohen, the theory’s author and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts.

That creates a pool of cold air and strong high pressure over Siberia. The result is a chain reaction that eventually ends up with a shift in the Arctic Oscillation, a difference in pressures over the polar region, and people in Manhattan risking frostbite if they leave their faces uncovered. At least, that’s the theory.

Last year, it didn’t exactly work out. Despite the second-largest Siberian snowcover on record for the end of October, the AO didn’t shift.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August.

DJIA: 18401  +18 Up NASDAQ:  5213 +16 Up. SP500: 2171 +18 Up.

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