Saturday, 20 February 2016

Weekend Update 20/02/2016 – Brexit Looking Better. Global Economy Gets Worse.

You tried your best Cameron and you failed miserably. The lesson is 'never try'. Just leave.

Juncker, with apologies to Homer Simpson

Croydon Aerodrome, February 19, 2016. Prime Minister Chamberlain returned in triumph from Brussels, the new Munich, today, and held aloft a signed scrap of paper and declared “prosperity in our time.” To a stunned nation, empire and world, and a small crowd of bussed in Tory Europhiles, he declared that under the new deal he had reached with the Continental Horde, Britain’s Parliament was now supreme again, GB had taken back control over her seas, dropped out of the ruinous French subsidy, the Common Agriculture Policy, halted the Merkel Migrant Madness rabble at Calais, and ended the mountain of pettifogging bureaucratic rules emanating from Brussels. This momentous event exceeded the momentous events of the summer of 1940 in the Battle of Britain, and completely eclipsed the Battle of the Somme over the hated Bosche in 1916.

“Johnny foreigner has gotten the bloody nose he so well deserved and was long overdue,” Chamberlain continued. This was his finest hour he declared as a light drizzle fell, screaming “this great British victory was won on the playing fields of Eton,” as two serious looking men in white coats rushed the Prime Minister to a nearby waiting ambulance.

As the rain intensity increased towards that of a normal British summer, the small crowd of Tory Europhiles shuffled back to their busses, collecting a £1.50 luncheon voucher along the way, redeemable for a continental breakfast at any Morrisons’ supermarket café in the land.

Chancellor Osborne stated that by this unprecedented victory over the continentals, the UK’s steel industry’s fate was sealed, saving another handful of care and maintenance jobs in Hartlepool.  Home Secretary Theresa May vowed that not a single Syrian migrant of any stripe would reach our shores, and that she was reaching out to Donald Trump consulting on walls.

Nigel Farrage, leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party was unavailable for comment, having been taken into protective custody in Kent, earlier in the day.

Buckingham Palace declined to comment, saying only that the Queen and Prince Philip had gone to bed.

Cameron Wins EU Deal to Avert ‘Brexit’ After Two-Day Summit

February 19, 2016 — 9:10 PM GMT Updated on February 19, 2016 — 10:21 PM GMT
European Union leaders reached a deal aimed at keeping the U.K. in the bloc, allowing Prime Minister David Cameron to call a referendum on EU membership as soon as June.

“Drama over,” Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said on Twitter, breaking the news of the deal as the 28 heads of government met for dinner at the end of a second day of their summit in Brussels Friday. EU President Donald Tusk confirmed the accord a few minutes later, saying on Twitter that there was “unanimous support” for the agreement.

Shortly after the Lithuanian leader's tweet, European Commission President Donald Tusk confirmed the deal had unanimous support:

The pound rose on the news of a deal after some 32 hours of negotiating that saw prolonged haggling over Cameron’s demands for welfare curbs, legal changes to the EU treaties and attempts to protect the financial industry in the City of London. The focus will rapidly shift to the domestic campaign that will determine the U.K.’s future in the EU.

“A deal to give the U.K. special status within the EU,” Cameron told reporters after the summit. “This is enough for me to recommend that the U.K. remain in the EU, keeping the best of both worlds.”

The pound rose for a second day against the dollar, gaining 0.3 percent to $1.4379 at 4:32 p.m. in New York. That’s up from a decline of as much as 0.6 percent earlier in the day.

The U.K. won a seven-year “emergency-brake” period in which it can impose welfare curbs on other EU citizens arriving to work in Britain, according to the final draft of an EU communique prepared for the dinner seen by Bloomberg. One of the most contentious of his demands, Cameron had surprised his counterparts by pressing for 13 years; the original proposal had been for five years. Each worker falling into this category would have their benefits phased in for over four years.

The draft text obliges the U.K.’s financial industry to abide by what the EU calls its “single rule-book” -- the common rules for banks and credit institutions in every country. However, it gives the U.K. some flexibility, stating that lenders outside the euro area may be able to have “specific provisions,” giving Cameron the ability to claim a shield for the British financial industry.

Cameron will now present the deal to his cabinet in London at a meeting at 10 a.m. on Saturday and recommend a vote to stay in the EU. “I have negotiated a deal to give the U.K. special status in the EU,” he said on Twitter.

----The latest opinion poll, by TNS, found 39 percent of respondents supporting leaving the bloc with 36 percent backing staying in, and 25 percent undecided once those who are unlikely to vote are stripped out. TNS questioned 1,120 adults online from Feb. 11 to Feb. 15 with a 3 percentage-point margin of error. Most other online polls recently have also shown the result too close to call, though less frequent telephone surveys have shown “Remain” clearly ahead.

Cameron obtained “special status” for Britain by getting wording excluding the U.K. from the EU’s principle of striving for ever closer unity. The agreement states that when the EU’s underlying treaties are next revised they will “make it clear that the references to ever closer union to not apply to the United Kingdom,” according to the draft.

David Cameron claims to have secured 'special status' for Britain in the EU - but critics slam the deal which gives away key demands on welfare, border control and child benefits

David Cameron last night agreed to further water down his referendum deal - putting Britain on course to hold an historic vote in June.

After 30 hours of gruelling talks in Brussels, the Prime Minister declared that he had secured a sufficiently strong agreement to allow him to campaign passionately for Britain to remain inside the Brussels club.

He will fly back to the UK overnight and will hold a Cabinet meeting at 10am. Immediately afterwards, he will fire the starting gun on a referendum which will shape Britain's destiny for a generation.

Putting a gloss on his climb down, the PM declared: ' I don't love Brussels. I love Britain'

But in order to secure his deal - which was already under attack from Eurosceptics as 'thin gruel' - he had to make further compromises to countries from Eastern Europe.

Most controversially, restrictions on the payment of child benefits to EU workers will not be introduced until 2020.

This is a climb down on a policy that already fell short of a Tory manifesto commitment for an outright ban.

A so-called emergency brake on migrants claiming in work benefits will last for only seven years. The PM had been seeking 13 years.

But in a boost for No10, he secured an agreement the City will be offered some protection from new regulations devised by the Eurozone and a British exemption from the EU's commitment to 'ever closer union' will be written into future treaties.

Eurosceptics said the deal was 'irrelevant' as he had not asked for any changes to freedom of movement or the repatriation of powers to the UK.

They also said it did nothing to address the chaos raging across Europe. The Out camp was also boosted by news Cabinet big hitter Michael Gove is likely to campaign for out. The Prime Minister said he was 'disappointed, but not surprised' that he and his close friend would not be on the same side.

But the deal was agreed on a day when the scale of the crisis engulfing Europe was starkly illustrated:
  • Up to 5,000 Islamist jihadi fanatics are at large in the European Union, according to Europol
  • Italy insisted that its borders must remain wide open – allowing tens of thousands of refugees to flood into the mainland.
  • In Greece, the authorities said 2,000 'refugees' are arriving on the Island of Lesbos every day, despite the bad weather.
  • Austria defied EU bosses by saying it would refuse to accept any more than 80 asylum seekers every day – and would close its border once the total was reached.

British Newspapers Bemoan `Shambles' of Cameron's EU Negotiation

February 18, 2016 — 11:29 PM GMT
David Cameron’s crucial European Union summit was only a few hours old but British newspapers had already made up their minds about the outcome.

The prime minister’s negotiations, in which he’s urging 27 other national leaders to agree to change the U.K.’s terms of EU membership, are a “shambles,” Friday’s Daily Mail said on its front page, alongside a photograph of Cameron looking anxious. It’s a “face that says it all,” the newspaper said, adding that the U.K. faces the prospect of its wish list being watered down during the course of the Brussels talks.

Other papers signaled they regard Cameron’s negotiations as being of not much value anyway. The Daily Express declared: “You can’t win, Prime Minister.” Cameron is nowhere near a victory, the traditionally euro-skeptic paper said. Instead, he’s close to “a pitiful surrender.” The biggest-selling paper, the Sun, took a similar tone, saying that the prime minister had to “beg” his fellow leaders for a deal.

The Times took a different approach, leading on its front page with the news that other nations are warning that the summit talks are make-or-break. Countries want a clause in the agreement that stipulates that the U.K. cannot reopen negotiations once a deal is struck. “This is your last chance, EU leaders tell Britain,” was the newspaper’s headline.

What do we need a psychiatrist for? We know the EUSSR is nuts.

Farage, with apologies to Homer Simpson.

In other news, the global economy is rolling over.

21 New Numbers That Show That The Global Economy Is Absolutely Imploding

We are in the early chapters of a brand new economic meltdown

Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse - February 17, 2016
----The following are 21 new numbers that show that the global economy is absolutely imploding…
#1 Chinese exports fell by 11.2 percent year over year in January.
#2 Chinese imports were even worse in January.  On a year over year basis, they declined a whopping 18.8 percent.
#3 It may be hard to believe, but Chinese imports have now plunged for 15 months in a row.
#4 In India, exports were down 13.6 percent on a year over year basis in January.
#5 In Japan, exports declined 8 percent in December on a year over year basis, while imports plummeted 18 percent.
#6 For the sixth time in six years, Japanese GDP growth has gone negative.
#7 In the United States, exports were down 7 percent on a year over year basis in December.
#8 U.S. factory orders have fallen for 14 months in a row.
#9 The Restaurant Performance Index in the United States has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since 2008.
#10 This month the Baltic Dry Index fell below 300 for the first time ever.
#11 It is now cheaper to rent a 1,100 foot merchant vessel than it is to rent a Ferrari.
#12 Orders for Class 8 trucks in the United States dropped by 48 percent on a year over year basis in January.
#13 Due to a lack of demand for trucks, Daimler just laid off 1,250 U.S. workers.
#14 Even though Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to freeze oil production at current levels, the price of U.S. oil has still fallen below 30 dollars a barrel.
#15 It is being reported that 35 percent of all oil and gas companies around the world are at risk of falling into bankruptcy.
#16 According to CNN, 67 oil and gas companies in the United States filed for bankruptcy during 2015.
#17 The number of job cuts in the United States skyrocketed 218 percent during the month of January according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
#18 All over America, retail stores are shutting down at a stunning pace.  The following list of store closures comes from one of my previous articles

True, governments can reduce the rate of interest in the short run, issue additional paper currency, open the way to credit expansion by the banks. They can thus create an artificial boom and the appearance of prosperity. But such a boom is bound to collapse soon or late and to bring about a depression. 

Ludwig von Mises.

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