Friday, 22 November 2013

Is “Forever,” Forever?

Baltic Dry Index. 1499 -28

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

J. K. Galbraith

While the Fed’s final bubble continues to grow like Topsy, the risk of a crash continues to grow the moment they try to scale back QE with a taper. Scratch India from the BRIC when/if the Fedsters’ try. The Fed is over a barrel of Bernocchio’s making, and don’t the speculators in US stocks know it. The Fedsters’ will never dare to taper lest they set off the calamity QE was started to prevent. QE Forever really is forever, until like “deficits don’t matter” one day events force “forever” to end.

"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."

Antony C. Sutton

Indian Banks’ Rising Bad Debt Is ‘Major Challenge,’ RBI Says

By Darren Boey & Kartik Goyal - Nov 22, 2013 5:34 AM GMT
Rising bad loans at Indian lenders remain “a major challenge” amid a slowdown in Asia’s third-largest economy, the nation’s central bank said.

Nonperforming loans rose to 986 billion rupees ($15.7 billion) at the end of March from 652 billion rupees a year earlier, the Reserve Bank of India said in a report yesterday on the country’s banking industry. The ratio of sour debt to total lending swelled to 3.6 percent from 3.1 percent.

More debtors are finding it harder to pay off loans in a $1.8 trillion economy that is projected to grow in the year ending March 2014 at the weakest pace in more than a decade. Rising bad loans contributed to a 35 percent slump in State Bank of India (SBIN)’s net income for the quarter ended Sept. 30.

“Macro stress tests indicate that if the current macroeconomic conditions persist, the credit quality of commercial banks could deteriorate further,” the Mumbai-based RBI said. “In the short term, the stress on banks’ asset quality remains a major challenge.”

Nov. 21, 2013, 4:29 p.m. EST

Dow ends above 16,000 for first time as stocks jump

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved its first-ever close above 16,000 on Thursday as U.S. stocks rallied, boosted by better-than-expected data on weekly jobless claims and as investors reconsidered their concerns about the Federal Reserve’s potential reduction in its bond-buying program.

“The market is becoming more and more comfortable with the tapering talk,” said Andrew Zimmerman, chief investment strategist at DT Investment Partners, in an interview.

----On Wednesday, stocks slumped after minutes from the last Fed meeting showed the central bank was on track to slow its bond-buying program that has helped power stocks to record levels.

But the main indexes bounced back Thursday. Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., pointed out in a note Thursday that “any reduction in the flow of purchases by the Fed inherently smacks of economic recovery.”

The market also took in tame inflation data, a weaker-than-expected manufacturing report and speeches by Federal Reserve officials

In Europe, it’s a tale of two very different realities. Germany and Great Britain boom, but for two very different reasons. The rest of continental Europe are back flirting with Japanese style deflation. Scratch continental Europe when/if the Fed tapers, though France is going all out to do it in anyway. Thanks to the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money and our new lawless age, if Europe goes boom, America (and Great Britain) goes bust. 

"The sources of deflation are not a mystery. Deflation is in almost all cases a side effect of a collapse of aggregate demand - a drop in spending so severe that producers must cut prices on an ongoing basis in order to find buyers. Likewise, the economic effects of a deflationary episode, for the most part, are similar to those of any other sharp decline in aggregate spending - namely, recession, rising unemployment, and financial stress."

Dr. B. S. Bernanke.

Mario Draghi: ECB needs "safety margin" against deflation

European Central Bank President defends cutting rates to near-zero levels amid criticism from Germany

The European Central Bank has fought back against harsh German criticism, insisting that it had to cut rates to near zero to head off deflation risks and stabilize debt burdens in the crisis states.

Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, said the eurozone’s inflation rate has been in “slow motion” decline for several months. This has spread to all major components of the price index since the summer, pushing the inflation rate down to 0.7pc. Prices have actually fallen over the last three months.

Mr Draghi told an audience in Berlin that the bank acted to secure a “safety margin against deflationary risks”, acknowledging that last week’s rate cut to 0.25pc had set off a political storm and raised fears over an erosion of savings.

Both German members of the ECB’s council opposed the cut. The German media has described it as a Latin coup to seize control of the ECB’s policy machinery. Hans Werner Sinn, head of Munich's IFO institute, accused Mr Draghi of misusing the ECB to bail out Italian debtors

----Mr Draghi’s plea came as the eurozone’s PMI surveys for November came in weaker than expected, with the added twist that Germany is vastly outperforming France. “It is extremely disappointing and worrying. Recovery will remain tortuously slow,” said Howard Archer from IHS Global Insight.

France’s manufacturing index fell to a six-month low of 47.2pc. The private economy as a whole has slipped back into contraction. Dominique Barbet from BNP Paribas said the the data showed France was “well into the theoretical recession territory” after GDP declined in the third quarter.

Eurozone slows as 'sick man' France hits recovery

Disappointing eurozone PMI survey signals slowing growth for second month in November with activity in France shrinking and the bloc's service sector weakening

By Telegraph Staff 11:14AM GMT 21 Nov 2013
Business actitivity in the eurozone slowed again in November raising worries of softening growth as the bloc struggles out of recession.

Markit Economics said its Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for November - published on Thurday - fell to a three-month low of 51.5 points from 51.9 points in October.

Although November output remained above the 50-points line indicating growth or contraction, this was the second month in a row for which the closely-watched leading indicator had fallen, after October's reading slipped to 51.9 points from 52.2 in September.

Despite resurgent growth in Germany, activity in France - the second-biggest economy in the eurozone - shrank in November for the first time for three months.

Chris Williamson, Markit chief economist, said: “Some encouragement must be gleaned from the PMI signalling expansion of the eurozone economy for a fifth successive month in November, but the average reading over the fourth quarter so far is signalling a very modest 0.2pc expansion of GDP across the region, and it looks like momentum is being lost again.

UK factory orders hit highest level in 18 years

British factory orders jumped unexpectedly in October to their strongest level since March 1995

By Telegraph Staff 11:43AM GMT 21 Nov 2013
British industrial output jumped to an 18-year high in October, as order books swelled and manufacturers signalled that a broad-based recovery was bedding in.

Rising domestic and overseas demand helped total orders grow to the highest level since March 1995, the Confederation of British Industry said yesterday.

Orders in mechanical engineering, Britain’s fourth largest industrial sector, were at their highest since records began in 1978, while 13 of the 15 industrial sub-sectors reported a rise.

The CBI’s survey of 350 manufacturers also showed output volumes in the three months to November rose at their fastest rate since January 1995. Growth was widespread, with electrical engineering the only sector to see a decline

----Separate Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders data yesterday showed the number of cars built in October rose at the fastest pace this year, up 17pc on an annual basis to 160,854.

We end for the week on Europe on an up note, with Barroso’s Eurocrats’ finally getting what they deserved. Can Merkel and Cameron reform the EU before Hollande crashes the whole rotten system down?

European court overturns austerity-busting pay rise for EU officials

EU court denies Brussels officials three years of backdated auutomatic pay increase, telling them economic times have changed' in a landmark ruling

Brussels officials have been denied an expected Christmas bonus worth thousands of euros each after the European Union's highest court said they were not entitled to three years of backdated pay rises.

National governments blocked the automatically calculated annual 1.7 per cent pay rise for EU bureaucrats back in 2011 - a time when Europe faced its worst recession in a generation.

The European Commission then attempted to challenge this move, fighting a case in the Europe's highest court in an attempt to secure the pay rise for all EU staff.

However, EU judges on Tuesday defied expectations - and the legal advice given by the court's advocate general in September - to decree that the governments were right to cite 'serious and sudden deterioration in the economic and social situation' when blocking the automatic pay increase.

Britain has welcomed the ruling after the Government, along with France, Germany, Spain, Latvia, the Netherlands, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Denmark, went to the EU court to overturn the pay rise.

----The judgment means that European Commissioners, EU officials and MEPs will not get the three years of the back paid pay increase that most had expected to receive in salary payments over Christmas.

The back pay would have worth £12,000 for Baroness Ashton, the EU foreign minister, and up to £4,000 each for MEPs in payments that were eagerly awaited by officials.

"There are an awful of lot of very disappointed officials today. I know a lot of people who banked on the extra cash for their holiday plans," said one EU staffer.

The judgement reverses a September legal opinion by Yves Bot, the European Court of Justices legal, who ruled that automatic pay rises for officials could only be rejected in "exceptional economic circumstances", which had not applied in 2011.

----Following a major victory for Britain over cuts to EU spending between 2014 to 2020, which was signed off by MEPs on Tuesday, pay and pensions for officials will remain frozen for this year and next.

Public sector posts and salaries have been cut across Europe, especially in the eurozone but not a single EU official has lost their job, with increases on spending and jobs the norm until a slight dip in administrative budget planned for next year.

"Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium."

Murray N. Rothbard

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 44.30 Moz, Eligible 123.69 Moz, Total 167.99 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks, bent banksters or totally doubled over politicians this Friday, just a case of spectacular error.  After a long tiring flight from Italy, all Kansas airports look the same. Did someone have too much Chianti in the New York stopover?

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.

J. K. Galbraith.

Uh-Oh: Boeing’s Huge Cargo Plane Lands at Tiny Airport by Mistake

At least they found Kansas. A heavily modified 747 used by Boeing (BA) to transport parts of its 787 Dreamliner landed at the wrong airport in Wichita, an embarrassing mistake that led to a flurry of technical calculations to determine whether the gigantic cargo plane could depart.

The 747 Dreamlifter, operated by Atlas Air (AAWW), was on a regular shuttle flight yesterday from Grottaglie, Italy, where a Boeing partner makes 787 fuselage sections. The cargo plane had stopped in New York for three hours before continuing to Wichita and landing on Wednesday night. Unfortunately, the flight crew chose Colonel James Jabara Airport, a small airport with a 6,100-foot runway that’s not designed for large aircraft. There are three airports on the east side of Wichita, including the plane’s intended destination, McConnell Air Force Base.

Boeing assembles the front sections of the 787 in Wichita and has a fleet of four Dreamlifters to ferry sections of the new plane. Atlas Air has filed a flight plan for an eight-minute flight across Wichita on Thursday afternoon, according to FlightAware, which tracks air traffic.

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.

Another weekend, and Christmas is another week closer, although our US readers have to cope with next week’s Thanksgiving Day holiday first. While the is stuck in the one way street of QE Forever, the unearned money gang will press ahead with Dow 20,000 or bust. The Great Disconnect keeps continuing to get wider. But if the USA economy really has turned the corner, QE Forever can’t be forever, not unless the Fed wants to set of inflation Weimar style. The prudent will use the current lull in precious metals prices to take out insurance against our explosive future. Have a great weekend everyone.

"'Deflation' is usually defined as generally falling prices, yet it can also be defined as a decline in the money supply which, of course, will also tend to lower prices. It is particularly important to distinguish between changes in prices or the money supply that arise from voluntary changes in people's values or actions on the free market; as against deliberate changes in the money supply imposed by governmental coercion."

Murray N. Rothbard

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October:
DJIA: +178 Up. NASDAQ: +238 Up. SP500: +217 Up. The Fed’s final bubble continues to grow, until QE Forever isn’t forever. Up will remain up, until one fine day out of the blue the Fed finally loses control, or the next Lehman hits.

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