Monday, 23 September 2013

More Austerity!



Baltic Dry Index. 1904 +44

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

My way or the highway.

Chancellor Merkel.

Poor Club Med! In something of an economic calamity, German voters returned Chancellor Merkel, the “hammer of the Greeks”, with over 41 percent of the vote. With her current coalition partner the Free Democrats in collapse, Chancellor Merkel will likely end up in an uneasy coalition with the Social Democrats. Club Med and France are now really going to have to reform if they want more German cash. Club Med’s EMU refugees will soon be headed north and into a long cold winter.

It was a poke in the eye for Barroso and Draghi too. Eurobonds look to be dead until after 2017 at the earliest. Her Majesty’s weak coalition Government looks like it just got some shock troops in its efforts to reform the bloated EU, rather than be forced to leave via a referendum in the next Parliament. The time has arrived to seriously prune the great Brussels’s tax and spend corruption machine.  Power is shifting from Brussels to Berlin.

Who do I call when I want to call Europe?

Henry Kissinger. Try Berlin.

Merkel Gets Biggest Victory Since Kohl’s Reunification Vote

By Tony Czuczka & Brian Parkin - Sep 23, 2013 12:52 AM GMT
Angela Merkel won an overwhelming endorsement from German voters, putting the country’s first female chancellor on course for the biggest election tally since Helmut Kohl’s post-reunification victory of 1990.
Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc took 41.5 percent to 25.7 percent for the Social Democrats of Peer Steinbrueck in yesterday’s election, according to results from all 299 districts. That leaves her short of a majority and needing a coalition partner to govern Europe’s biggest economy.

----After sweeping the election on the back of an unemployment rate near the lowest in two decades and her handling of the euro-area crisis, Merkel, 59, must now look for a governing ally after the Free Democrats, crashed out of the lower house of parliament. Party leaders are due to meet today to discuss coalition talks.

----During the campaign, Merkel said that insisting on reforms in euro countries that received aid was the only way to raise Europe’s competitiveness, citing the fall in German joblessness from a post-World War II high of 12.1 percent in 2005 following a labor-market overhaul. The German unemployment rate is now 6.8 percent compared to 12.1 in the 17-nation euro region.
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Triumphant Angela Merkel begins search for new coalition ally after historic German election win

The day after her stunning election triumph, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was on Monday set to start the process of haggling with potential partners over how to rule Europe's biggest economy.

AFP 2:50AM BST 23 Sep 2013
After a campaign that banked on Merkel's image as a calm, sensible and reassuring eurozone crisis manager, she led her conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) close to its first absolute majority in half a century.

"The Merkel Republic," ran the headline for a commentary on news site Spiegel Online, which declared that after the landslide outcome which won the chancellor a third term, "Germany has finally become Angela Merkel-Land".

True to her style, Merkel pledged that "we will use the result responsibly and carefully," but stressed that she intends to serve out her full term till 2017, as jubilant supporters yelled "Angie, Angie, Angie".

The CDU and its Bavarian allies demolished their centre-left opponents with what a beaming Merkel called a "super-result" of 41.5 per cent, its best in 23 years.

----Whatever shape the new government will take, the impact on the eurozone and the rest of the world was judged to be marginal by commentators.

Looking at a left-right grand coalition scenario, Berenberg Bank analyst Holger Schmieding said broadly "the SPD endorses Merkel's euro policies", including opposition to Eurobonds.

Because the SPD campaigned on social justice issues and help for the working poor, it would be expected to want to soften some of its own tough labour reforms from a decade ago and demand a national minimum wage.

The parties would probably agree on a minor stimulus through infrastructure spending, a modest hike in top marginal income taxes and a gradual reduction in subsidies for solar and wind energy, said the Berenberg Bank note.
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In slightly better news for Club Med, it turns out the German’s haven’t been pulling their weight in the European Stability Mechanism. While the ESM is hopelessly inadequate to its task, Club Med and others are likely to want a pound and a half of flesh from German taxpayers. It was after all, a member of her own party that pointed it out.

Euro Bailout Fund: Germans Pay Less Than Their Neighbors

September 20, 2013 – 03:57 PM
A new study shows that Germany contributes less per person to the permanent euro bailout fund than residents of several other countries in the European Union. Luxembourg, Holland and Ireland are among the nations paying more per capita

Germany transfers less money per citizen into the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) than other euro-zone countries, SPIEGEL has learned. Although Germany contributes a larger portion of the permanent euro bailout fund than any other country -- 27 percent -- it also has the largest population and strongest economy in the European Union.

When the contributions of the ESM member countries are adjusted according to each country's respective population, Germany ranks fifth. That's the finding of a review of the Luxembourg-based euro fund authored by EU parliamentarian Elmar Brok, a member of Germany's conservative Christian Democrats.

According to his assessment, each German taxpayer contributed an average of €264.80 ($358.46) to the ESM over the past year. Luxembourg, by comparison, contributed €373 per person, with Ireland, the Netherlands and Finland also paying more per capita than Germany. The smallest adjusted contribution comes from Estonia, the newest member of the 17-country currency union.

EU member states have contributed some €48 billion to the rescue authority to date. The cash contribution of the ESM is expected to increase to a total of €80 billion by mid-2014, with the next installment due in October.
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http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/germans-pay-less-for-euro-bailout-than-other-eu-countries-a-923500.html#ref=nl-international

On the other side of the Atlantic, speculation that the world is about to get a more relaxed internationalist Fed next year.  A kinder, nicer, branch of Murder Incorporated.

“Fed to Rest of the World: Please don’t drop dead.”

Fed Faces New Era of Thinking Global as Yellen Nomination Nears

By Simon Kennedy - Sep 23, 2013 12:01 AM GMT
At the height of the 1998 Asian economic crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan declared the U.S. was no “oasis of prosperity” in times of global stress.

It is a lesson Ben S. Bernanke’s successor will need to heed upon inheriting a central bank once again facing a domestic need to think internationally.

---- “The U.S. is becoming somewhat more dependent on what’s going on in the rest of the world,” said Nathan Sheets, the former head of the Fed’s international-finance division and now global head of international economics at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “For Fed policy makers, the U.S. is becoming much more closely integrated with the global economy.”

That shouldn’t prove a problem for Yellen. She has been globe trotting and crisis fighting at the Fed from Washington since 2010, helping to craft bond-buying and communication policies. As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in the six previous years, she monitored Asia and oversaw banks with foreign exposure, including Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)

Her Fed calendars, obtained under a Freedom of Information Act, show her attending meetings of counterparts and regulators in London, Paris, Zurich, Basel, Bern, Helsinki, Mexico City, Tokyo and Shanghai from 2011 to January of this year. In the 1970s, Yellen, now 67, worked in the Fed’s international division and also taught at the London School of Economics.
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Sept. 20, 2013, 4:35 p.m. EDT

U.S. stocks end Fed-driven week with a thud

After the close, Dow components to change

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks fell hard on Friday, but benchmark indexes still managed to post a third week of gains, as investors reacted to the uncertain science of reading verbal signals from U.S. central bankers.

The selloff intensified in the last few minutes of trading. Volatility was expected to be high Friday due to an options expiration known as quadruple witching taking place.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both fell for a second session, retreating from the record heights that came Wednesday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly said it would refrain from curbing stimulus for now. On Monday, stocks rallied in the wake of former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers pulling his name out of contention to replace Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The final trading session of the week had one Federal Open Market Committee member signaling the Fed could curb stimulus next month and another critical of the decision not to taper in September.

----In its worst session in more than a month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -1.19% fell 185.46 points, or 1.2%, to 15,451.09, leaving it up 0.5% on the week.

----Alcoa, Hewlett-Packard Co. HPQ +0.05% and Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.21%  will no longer be part of the Dow 30 when trading begins Monday, replaced by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.71% , Visa Inc. V +0.27%  and Nike Inc. NKE -0.53% .
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“Bernanke's clever," said Pooh thoughtfully.
"Yes," said Piglet, "Bernanke's clever."
"And he has Brain."
"Yes," said Piglet, "Bernanke has a Brain."
There was a long silence.
"I suppose," said Pooh, "that that's why he never understands anything.”

With apologies to A. A. Milne.


At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 43.38 Moz, Eligible 119.21 Moz, Total 162.59 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, more on our new lawless age. Brussels gets stung by a British bug. America gets stung by the Germans. For everyone involved, it’s a sticky business with no sweet ending so far. Between Switzerland’s UBS and Germany’s ALW Food Group, the Germanic peoples of the world seem to get stuck when complying with US laws.

“When you are a Spook of Very Little Brain, and you Think of Things, you find sometimes that a Thing which seemed very Thingish inside you is quite different when it gets out into the open and has other people looking at it.”

With apologies to Pooh-Bear and A. A. Milne.

Cyber Attack: Belgians Angered by British Spying

By Gregor-Peter Schmitz in Brussels September 20, 2013 – 04:55 PM
The hacking attack by Britain's GCHQ intelligence service on Belgian telecoms provider Belgacom has angered politicians in the country. Belgium plays host to the EU's top institutions as well as NATO, and Prime Minister Elio di Rupo is considering diplomatic retaliation.

Earlier on Friday, SPIEGEL reported that Britain's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) intelligence agency conducted cyber attacks against partially state-owned Belgian telecommunications provider Belgacom, triggering a wave of outrage in the country.

"We will look very carefully at the information that SPIEGEL exposed this morning," Prime Minister Elio di Rupo said. The Belgian leader said his government deeply condemns such attacks on Belgacom's communications networks. If the hypothesis is confirmed, he said, his government would take the appropriate action.

Di Rupo added that Belgium was a popular target because it hosts many of the most important European Union institutions, universities and corporations, as well as NATO. He said his government would increase funding to increase Internet security and also move to decisively implement a new cyber strategy.

A "top secret" GCHQ presentation from the archive of whistleblower Edward Snowden indicates that the project, which carried the codename "Operation Socialist," was aimed at enabling "better exploitation of Belgacom" and at improving understanding of the provider's infrastructure. The presentation is undated, but a further document indicates that access has been possible since at least 2010.

Responding to questions from SPIEGEL, Belgacom, whose major customers include the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament, said the firm first encountered signs of a virus internally on June 21. Four days later, the company hired an external consulting firm -- Fox IT of the Netherlands -- to examine the issue more closely. On July 16, executives of the company were then informed of the full scope. Belgacom has since referred the matter to prosecutors.

"The virus has been eliminated," a spokesman for Belgacom stated, and now the investigation is being conducted by government authorities.

Belgacom had been the subject of considerable criticism in recent days, because Belgian politicians had accused the company of not correctly stating the facts about the scale and background of the spying attacks. The Belgian daily Le Soir wrote recently, "Spying at Belgacom: It's far from over."

Suspicions in Belgium were initially directed at the NSA. According to the contents of the presentation, however, that suspicion cannot be confirmed. What it does indicate is that the British deployed a spying technology which was developed by the NSA. The GCHQ slides indicate the attack was directed at several Belgacom employees whose computers had been planted with spying software using an attack technology referred to in the slides as a "Quantum Insert" (QI).
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The Honey Launderers: Uncovering the Largest Food Fraud in U.S. History

Magnus von Buddenbrock and Stefanie Giesselbach arrived in Chicago in 2006 full of hope. He was 30, she was 28, and they had both won their first overseas assignments at ALW Food Group, a family-owned food-trading company based in Hamburg. Von Buddenbrock had joined ALW—the initials stand for its founder, Alfred L. Wolff—four years earlier after earning a degree in marketing and international business, and he was expert in the buying and selling of gum arabic, a key ingredient in candy and soft drinks. 

Giesselbach had started at ALW as a 19-year-old apprentice. She worked hard, learned quickly, spoke five languages, and within three years had become the company’s first female product manager. Her specialty was honey. When the two colleagues began their new jobs in a small fourth-floor office a few blocks from Millennium Park in downtown Chicago, ALW’s business was growing, and all they saw was opportunity.

On March 24, 2008, von Buddenbrock came to the office around 8:30 a.m., as usual. He was expecting a quiet day: It was a holiday in Germany, and his bosses there had the day off. Giesselbach was on holiday, too; she had returned to Germany to visit her family and boyfriend. Sometime around 10 a.m., von Buddenbrock heard a commotion in the reception area and went to have a look. A half-dozen armed federal agents, all wearing bulletproof vests, had stormed in. “They made a good show, coming in with full force,” he recalls. “It was pretty scary.”

The agents asked if anybody was hiding anywhere, then separated von Buddenbrock and his assistant, the only two employees there. Agents brought von Buddenbrock into a conference room, where they questioned him about ALW’s honey business. After a couple of hours they left, taking with them stacks of paper files, copies of computer hard drives, and samples of honey.

Giesselbach returned from Germany three days later. Her flight was about to land at O’Hare when the crew announced that everyone would have to show their passports at the gate. As Giesselbach walked off the plane, federal agents pulled her aside. She, too, answered their questions about ALW’s honey shipments. 

After an hour, they let her leave. The agents, from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Homeland Security, had begun to uncover a plot by ALW to import millions of pounds of cheap honey from China by disguising its origins.
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“People say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing every day.”

Pooh Bear. A.A. Milne.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished Augus:
DJIA: +162 Down. NASDAQ: +189 Up. SP500: +194 Down.

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