Friday 19 July 2013

Ugly.



Baltic Dry Index. 1146 -05

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

My psychiatrist told me I was crazy and I said I want a second opinion. He said okay, you're ugly too.

Rodney Dangerfield.

Our planet is getting very ugly, not that you would know it from the Great Disconnect in global stock markets from reality. Yesterday the once great motor city of Detroit went bust, fling a chapter 9 bankruptcy in America. I suspect that there will be many more to come in the decade ahead. China’s ratings agencies began preparing for a coming wave of corporate bond defaults as China’s slowdown deepens.  The Bank for International Settlements in Basel, began preparing for a wave of insurance company collapses, once interest rates start rising again, leaving insurance companies with declining collateral to cover liabilities. Germany’s imperious finance minister flew down to effete Greece and read them the Riot Act. German banks and banksters take precedent over any additional Greek sovereign bond relief. Greece hammered yet again, began seriously considering hitting the Merkel successor state to Nazi Germany with a reparations suit for second world war damage and atrocities.

Offsetting all that was yet more happy talk from Mammon’s man at the Fed. In our upside down, complacent world of the summer 2013, the Gospel of Mammon trumped everything else. All news, no matter how disturbing is now good news. The Fed’s final bubble grows on, pardon the weak pun. The Great Disconnect widens until one day, just like deficits didn’t matter, reality crashes in.  Apparently blissfully unaware of the financial disaster in Michigan’s largest city, Michigan is still a part of the land between the shinning seas, US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew flew into Moscow for the weekend’s G-20 finance ministers meeting, scattering pixie dust on the dying European nations attending. You must grow your way out just like America, he pontificated to the moribund Europeans. Seemingly unaware that almost none have their own sovereign currency and that the ECB is now run from Berlin for Germania.

I was so ugly my mother used to feed me with a sling shot.

Rodney Dangerfield.

Detroit Slides From Industrial Might to Bankruptcy

By Steven Church, Dawn McCarty & Margaret Cronin Fisk - Jul 19, 2013 5:00 AM GMT
Detroit, the cradle of the automobile assembly line and a symbol of industrial might, filed the biggest U.S. municipal bankruptcy after decades of decline left it too poor to pay billions of dollars owed bondholders, retired cops and current city workers.

----Michigan’s largest city joins Jefferson County, Alabama, and the California cities of San Bernardino and Stockton in bankruptcy. The filing shattered the presumption of many bondholders that local governments, eager to continue borrowing at reasonable rates, would do whatever it took, including raise taxes, to come up with the money to meet bond obligations. Kevyn Orr, the city’s emergency manager, said the debt is $18 billion.

While under court protection, Detroit can stop paying some debts, is temporarily immune from most lawsuits and may be able to ask a judge to cancel contracts, including union agreements. Under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, the first step is likely to be a court fight over whether the city was entitled to bankruptcy protection, a challenge that would ask if the city was truly insolvent and it had no alternative to filing.

----Its population, which peaked at 1.85 million in 1950, has declined to about 700,000, according to U.S. Census data. Manufacturing jobs fell from about 296,000 in 1950 to fewer than 27,000 in 2011. About 60,000 properties in the city, or 15 percent of all parcels, were barren and at least 78,000 buildings were vacant, including 38,000 deemed potentially dangerous, Orr said in a report this year.
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U.S. Automakers Thrive as Detroit Goes Bankrupt

By Jeff Green & Mark Clothier - Jul 19, 2013 5:00 AM GMT
The Motor City was the car capital of the world when David Cole graduated from a Detroit high school in 1955 and headed off to college to study auto engineering. Six decades later, the “motor” has mostly moved out, he said.

Many of the factories that used to dot the city and employ thousands moved to suburbs, other U.S. states or to China and Brazil as the auto industry became global and manufacturing focused on getting faster and less expensive, said Cole, chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and son of a General Motors Co. (GM) president.

“The auto industry was forced to change, driven by industry pressure, and it evolved,” Cole said. “Detroit did not. It’s sad to see. We just took it all for granted.”

Detroit, hamstrung by $18 billion in debt, was forced to file the largest bankruptcy for a U.S. municipality yesterday. GM, Ford Motor Co. (F) and Chrysler Group LLC, the automakers that call the region home, are profitable and thriving.

----It isn’t likely that Detroit’s recovery will be as quick and easy as the turnaround of the U.S. automakers, said Steven Rattner, a New York financier who headed President Barack Obama’s auto-industry task force in 2009 that ultimately put GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy.

GM and Chrysler were scrubbed clean of debt by U.S.-backed bankruptcies that lasted about six weeks. Ford suffered through a painful restructuring on its own that cut debt and labor costs.

“This will be much messier than the auto companies,” Rattner said in an interview. “This will go on for a long time.”
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Record Downgrades Foreshadow First Onshore Default

By Bloomberg News - Jul 19, 2013 5:17 AM GMT
China’s rating firms cut the most bond issuer rankings on record in June and brokerages said they are preparing for the onshore market’s first default as the world’s second-biggest economy slows.

A total of 38 issuers were downgraded last month, according to Guotai Junan Securities Co., the most since the nation’s third-biggest brokerage started compiling the data in 2005. Some 86 firms were upgraded, down from 88 a year earlier. China Chengxin Securities Rating Co. lowered Zhuhai Zhongfu Enterprise Co. (000659)’s debt rating to AA- from AA on June 28, causing the yield on the beverage package maker’s May 2015 bonds to almost triple to 15.01 percent.

“The government can’t save everyone,” said Xu Hanfei, a bond analyst in Shanghai at Guotai Junan. “In the future, downgrades may spread to high-grade bonds, especially those which rely heavily on support from the central or local governments.”

----“Investors should no longer blindly invest in state-owned companies with overcapacities without good credit analysis,” said Jiang Chao, a bond analyst in Shanghai at Haitong Securities. “China can’t restructure the economy without a bond default.”

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Allianz Joins AIG on List of Too-Big-to-Fail Insurers

By Carolyn Bandel & Zachary Tracer - Jul 19, 2013 1:03 AM GMT
American International Group Inc. (AIG) and Allianz SE (ALV) are among insurers deemed systemically important by global financial rulemakers, meaning they may face tougher capital standards and tighter regulation.

The list of nine too-big-to-fail insurers, including MetLife Inc. (MET) and Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) in the U.S. and France’s Axa SA (CS), was published yesterday by the Financial Stability Board, the Basel, Switzerland-based body set up by the Group of 20 nations.

The FSB, led by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, is coordinating global regulators’ response to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression to prevent a repeat of the turmoil that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and bailout of AIG.

“Today marks an important step toward more broadly addressing the risks associated with systemically important financial institutions,” Carney said in a statement on the FSB’s website. “A sound capital and supervisory framework for the insurance sector is essential for supporting financial stability.”

Also on the list are Prudential Plc (PRU) and Aviva Plc (AV/) of the U.K., China’s Ping An Insurance Group Co. and Italy’s Assicurazioni Generali SpA. (G)
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"Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency union as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries"

Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research.

Germany refuses fresh relief for Greeks as debt ratio spirals out of control

German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble has warned Greek leaders on a heavily guarded trip to Athens not to play with fire by pressing for fresh debt-relief, and brushed aside claims that Greece’s rescue package is falling apart.

“Greece must stop lobbying for a second restructuring of its debt. We have to stick to what has been agreed. Anything else is not in the best interest of Greece,” he said, during a day of political clashes in the capital. “If you take guarantees and then you are discussing a haircut, you are a liar. You will destroy any confidence.”

Mr Schauble admitted that Greece may ultimately need a second bail-out package as public debt spirals to 176pc of GDP this year, higher than when Greece first defaulted. The privatisation plan intended to chip away at the debt has stalled. Russia’s Gazprom has pulled out of a deal to buy Depa, the Greek gas utility.

But Mr Schauble insisted that talk of writing off loans from EMU bail-out funds or imposing losses on northern eurozone taxpayers would have a devastating impact on support for Greece.

The warnings came a day after the Greek parliament cleared the way for 25,000 state workers to lose their jobs over the next two years – the condition for €6.8bn (£5.9bn) in fresh loans from the EU-IMF-ECB Troika. The lay-offs risk pushing the unemployment rate towards 30pc.

Demonstrations were banned on the main road to Athens airport, while Syntagma Square was closed to prevent anti-German protesters wearing Swastikas and carrying Nazi banners approaching parliament.

----Alexis Tsipras, leader of the opposition Syriza party, called Mr Schauble’s visit a sham that was intended to keep a lid on the crisis until after the German elections in September.

Mr Tsipras pointedly called for a popular vote on whether to demand reparations from Germany for its wartime occupation, which led to the death of 300,000 Greeks and the seizure of Greek assets.

The government opened a secret inquiry into the case last year – a move seen as a ploy to give Athens a bargaining chip. The attempt to link the two issues has led to accusations of moral blackmail from politicians in Germany, and Mr Schauble has said that reparations are “out of the question”.
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Lew Urges Europeans to Spur ‘Engine of Growth’ as G-20 Convenes

By Ian Katz - Jul 19, 2013 12:00 AM GMT
Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said he will press his European counterparts at a Group of 20 meeting to spur growth, citing the U.S. economy as an example of a successful recovery.

Europe does need to look at what it can do to get the engine of growth moving again,” Lew said in an interview yesterday in Washington with Bloomberg Television’s Peter Cook. “The world needs Europe to grow.”

Lew is to arrive in Moscow for a two-day meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors starting today. He will also visit Athens on July 21 for meetings with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras.

Lew, making his second trip to Europe since taking office in February, called U.S. fiscal policy “decisive” and the Federal Reserve’s measures “effective” in pulling the world’s largest economy out of a recession.
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Italian Rivalries Threaten to Undo Letta’s Volatile Coalition

By Andrew Frye & Chiara Vasarri - Jul 18, 2013 11:01 PM GMT
Italy’s ruling coalition is fraying as Prime Minister Enrico Letta appeases adversaries while alienating long-time allies.

The pressure builds today with a no-confidence motion against Interior Minister Angelino Alfano in the Senate and the possible indictment of Silvio Berlusconi, Letta’s coalition partner, on bribery charges in Naples. Lawmaker criticism of both Berlusconi and his ally Alfano has driven a wedge between Letta and some of his oldest supporters.

The distinction between partners and rivals is increasingly obscure as tension mounts among the three parties that rallied around Letta three months ago. The competition has hurt Letta’s relationship with his own Democratic Party, or PD, as the premier defends Alfano and declines to confront Berlusconi over his growing legal problems.

----Letta won support yesterday from President Giorgio Napolitano, who urged disgruntled lawmakers to maintain backing for the government. Political instability, the 88-year-old head of state said, could weaken Italian sovereign debt, raising borrowing costs. The government is struggling to carry out a promised plan to abolish an unpopular property tax and to avoid a value-added tax increase after pledging to bring the country’s deficit below 3 percent of gross domestic product.

Italian 10-year yields have risen about 70 basis points since a 2 1/2-year low on May 2 after Letta took charge.
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Optimism - the doctrine or belief that everything is beautiful, including what is ugly.

Ambrose Bierce.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 49.69 Moz, Eligible 118.21 Moz, Total 166.90 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Not your usual suspects today. Today 21st century Romanians. Unsurprisingly, Romania is a member of the European Union. Enough said.

What an ugly beast the Romanian, and how like us.

With apologies to Marcus Tullius Cicero and apes.

Rotterdam Art Heist: Stolen Masterpieces Likely Incinerated

The whereabouts of valuable paintings stolen from the Rotterdam Kunsthal museum last year have long been uncertain, despite the arrest of the alleged thieves. Now the mother of one of the accused says she burned them in an oven.

A high-profile art theft from a Rotterdam museum has taken a tragic turn. In one of the most spectacular art heists to hit Europe in decades, last October thieves stole a number of valuable paintings from the Rotterdam Kunsthal, including works by Lucian Freud, Paul Gauguin, Henri Matisse, Claude Monet and Pablo Picasso. Though suspects were arrested in the case, officials had been unable to find the art. Now it appears the works were likely destroyed.

Six Romanians have been charged with the theft, and are currently awaiting trial. Olga Dogaru, the mother of one of the accused, told Romanian TV last week that she had incinerated the paintings in a stove after the arrest of her son. The thieves had been unable to find buyers for the works and she was worried about being discovered, she said.

Forensic specialists have since inspected the stove and found evidence of "painting primer, the remains of canvas and paint," Ernest Oberlander-Tarnoveanu, director of Romania's National History Museum, told the Associated Press. Law enforcement officials must now determine whether the ashes came from the missing paintings in question.

The artworks, which included Monet's "Waterloo Bridge, London" and Picasso's "Harlequin Head," are estimated to be worth a total of between €50 million and €100 million ($65 million and $131 million).

In a statement given to the Rotterdam-based newspaper NRC Handelsblad, the Cordia family, which owned the paintings and had lent them to the Dutch museum, said: "The only statement we as a family want to give is that it's a shame that, in all probability, these works of art no longer exist and will no longer be viewable by us as a family or by the public. And this because of the 'greed' of another."

Romania highest point: Moldoveanu 2,544 m

Romania lowest point: Black Sea 0 m

Another summer weekend, and an oddity here in the UK where summer usually only comes about once in a decade, and only then for a few hours. After a long cold hard winter and a long wet spring, upholding a long tradition, summer’s arrival was a complete surprise to the UK’s Met Office. What could possibly go wrong? Have a great weekend everyone. Will reality crash in next week?

As millions of Britons holiday at home after that promise of a 'barbecue summer', how did the Met Office get it so wrong?

By Daily Mail Reporter UPDATED:
The campers paddling between flooded tents didn't need to be told. Neither did the families huddling for shelter beside deserted beaches.

But yesterday the weathermen officially admitted that their prediction of a 'barbecue summer' had been hopelessly wrong.

And the bad news for millions of holidaymakers, many of whom had opted to stay in Britain on the strength of the optimistic forecast, is that after a soggy July, August will be no better.
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June:
DJIA: +145 Up. NASDAQ: +146 Up. SP500: +177 Unch  The  Fed’s Final Bubble continues, but is struggling.  The S&P500 moved sideways. The Dow and Nasdaq both barely eked out a gain. In current highly volatile conditions and controversial uncertain policy indecision at the Fed, Speculators would stay long, investors would exit stocks for now or get fully hedged.

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