Tuesday, 29 January 2013

Euroland Threatened By Cyprus.



Baltic Dry Index. 792  -06

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar.

All of the recent spin and hype that the euro crisis has been solved and gone away, crashed and burned yesterday, when Der Spiegel carried an article about how panicked the head of the ECB became last week, when German finance minister Schauble publicly declared Cyprus was not “systemically relevant” to Euroland if they allowed Cyprus to go bankrupt. Super Mario, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and the head of the European Stability Mechanism, Klaus Regling, went ballistic in fear and panic. Herr Schauble may be paymaster of the snake bit monetary union, but he needed to be put in his place. The reality is, tiny Cyprus’ default would probably bring the whole house of cards crashing down, and “would undo the positive news that had recently helped to calm the euro crisis.” In other words don’t believe what we say.

So there is the reality of 2013 Euroland. Don’t believe what they say for public consumption, as poor old Mr. Schauble seems to have done, the reality is that nothing has been fixed and things are now so bad that even a tin pot backwater like Cyprus defaulting, will bring the whole Bilderberger United States of Europe project crashing down. Stay long precious metals. Russia’s criminals and dodgy oligarch’s who hold most of their money in bankrupt Cypriot banks are now to get a bailout from hardworking Germans! 

Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.

H. L. Mencken.

ECB Warns of Euro-Zone Risk: Draghi Clashes with Berlin Over Aid to Cyprus

The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, warned German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble last week not to dismiss Cyprus as not being 'systemically relevant' and said a failure to bail out the island nation could threaten the wider euro zone.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confronted German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble last week to criticize his stance on Cyprus and said failure to bail out the island nation could threaten the euro zone.

At a meeting of EU finance ministers last week, Draghi contradicted Schäuble's view that Cyprus was not "systemically relevant," a term that implied it wouldn't endanger the euro zone if it went bankrupt.

Draghi told Schäuble that he often heard that argument from lawyers, even though the question of whether Cyprus was systemically relevant or not was not one that lawyers could answer. That, said Draghi, was a matter for economists. Schäuble is a trained lawyer.

Draghi was backed by the European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn as well as the head of the European Stability Mechanism, Klaus Regling.

The three pointed out to Schäuble that the two biggest banks in Cyprus had a large network of branches in Greece. If any doubt were cast on the safety of deposits held with those banks, the uncertainty of Greek savers could quickly spread to Greek banks, which would represent a major setback for Greece.

In addition, they argued, a Cypriot bankruptcy would undo the positive news that had recently helped to calm the euro crisis.
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Next more on the reality of the worker’s paradise of  Euroland. Was the French foreign escapade in Mali, a mere attempt to divert anger at rising unemployment into French nationalism?

Before a man speaks it is always safe to assume that he is a fool. After he speaks, it is seldom necessary to assume it.

H. L. Mencken.

France 'totally bankrupt', says labour minister Michel Sapin

France's labour minister sent the country into a state of shock on Monday after he described the nation as “totally bankrupt”

Francois Hollande battling to undo the potential reputational damage. 

“There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr Sapin said. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.”

The comments came as President Hollande attempts to improve the image of the French economy after pledging to reduce the country’s deficit by cutting spending by €60bn (£51.5bn) over the next five years and increasing taxes by €20bn.

Data from Banque de France showed earlier this month that a flight of capital has already left the country amid concerns that France’s Socialist leader intends to soak the rich and businesses. The actor Gérard Depardieu has renounced his French citizenship and decamped to Russia in protest, while David Cameron said Britain will “roll out the red carpet” to attract wealthy individuals.

Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, said the comments by Mr Sapin were “inappropriate”.
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January 28, 2013 6:59 pm

L’austérité à la française: city sells prized wines

By Hugh Carnegy in Paris
Times must really be getting hard in France.

The city of Dijon has just sold off half of its prized municipal wine cellar to help fund local social spending – including a bottle of 1999 Burgundy knocked down at auction for €4,800 to a Chinese buyer.

In total, the capital of the Burgundy region raised €151,620 from the “historic sale” of 3,500 bottles that were part of a collection built up since the 1960s, it announced in a statement on Monday.

François Rebsamen, the Socialist mayor who ordered Sunday’s auction, explained: “We have overall a good budget this year, but the social action spending of the city just keeps going up. There are more and more of our co-citizens who are appealing for social aid.”
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/69421ef8-696d-11e2-9246-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JG2XnjLz

We end this morning in the land between the shining seas. As the Fed prepares to meet later in the day in their two day session, it looks like QE forever to Bloomberg’s survey of economists. Exactly.  Stay long physical precious metals. Watch what they do, not what they say.

Bernanke Seen Buying $1.14 Trillion in Assets in 2014

By Joshua Zumbrun, Jeff Kearns & Catarina Saraiva - Jan 29, 2013 5:00 AM GMT
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Bernanke will push on with purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgage bonds and $45 billion a month of Treasuries, according to the survey of 44 economists, even as some Fed officials warn his unprecedented balance-sheet expansion will impair efforts to tighten policy when necessary.

“To get to the point where Bernanke would be comfortable letting up, you have to have a good solid string of economic reports that you’re just not going to get” this year, said Eric Green, global head of rates and FX research at TD Securities Inc. in New York and a former New York Fed economist.

The Federal Open Market Committee will renew its commitment to asset buying during a two-day meeting starting today after determining the benefits from the program exceed any risk of inflation or financial instability, according to economists surveyed Jan. 24-25. Bernanke has said the policy will continue until there are “substantial” gains in employment.

Fed officials have a brighter outlook for the economy than many private economists. FOMC participants forecast growth this year ranging from 2.3 percent to 3 percent, while economists in a separate Bloomberg survey have a median estimate of 2 percent.
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“Egol and Fabrice were way ahead of their time,” said one of the former Goldman workers.

“They saw the writing on the wall in this market as early as 2005.”

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 38.05 Moz, Eligible 115.10 Moz, Total 153.15 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 

Today, the Journal takes a look at the deficiencies in France’s new African war in Mali. Titled “Why France Can’t Fight,” it could just as easily been titled “Why Europe Can’t Fight.” All of Europe, the UK included, have short changed their military  for years, if not decades. In our new era of mass austerity, we’re still disarming, the height of folly in our ever more dangerous world.

January 27, 2013, 1:41 p.m. ET

Why France Can't Fight

Years of shortchanging defense are showing up in its Africa campaign.

The French armed forces field some of the world's most sophisticated fighter jets, nuclear submarines, attack helicopters and armored vehicles. The country spent $52 billion last year on defense, which puts it in the world's top league in total military spending. That's more than twice what such robust middle powers as South Korea, Turkey and Israel spend.

Yet in its commendable efforts to fight terrorists in Mali, Paris is all but begging for logistical and military support and has come up short on everything from refuelling to surveillance to heavy transport. Independently deploying a brigade-sized force to a country a mere five hours flight-time away is proving a bridge too far. How did that happen?

The question is worth asking because it tells us something about the nature of current European militaries—and perhaps the future of the U.S. military, too.

Consider personnel costs. In the U.S., military planners fret that the Pentagon spends $107 billion of its roughly $600 billion budget on salaries, another $53 billion or so on health care, and another $50 billion on retirement costs. In France, the Defense Ministry spends an astounding 50% of its total budget on personnel costs.

Some of that is the result of moving to an all-volunteer force, as France did in 1996, which has made the military smaller but more professional. But the bulk of the problem is that the Defense Ministry spends €7.6 billion ($10.2 billion) on retirees—roughly 20% of its budget, euros that are effectively taken away from war-fighting needs.

The result is an increasingly hollow military. On paper France has 230,000 men and women in uniform, but only 30,000 are estimated to be deployable on six months notice.

----But militaries need the not-so-sexy stuff, too, and here Paris has been shortchanging its soldiers for years. French infantrymen must now deploy with barely half the number of logistical transport vehicles the military had planned four years ago. French diplomats spent the first week of the Malian intervention haggling with the U.S., Canada and Britain for American-made C-17s to transport soldiers and gear to Mali.

France has no C-17s, though for nearly a decade it has had an order in for 50 A400-M cargo planes. The A400-M (aka the Airbus "Atlas") is a joint project of several European governments, whose inability to pay for it has delayed the program repeatedly. The A400-M can handle only about half the payload of a C-17.

France is also still hunting for more air-refueling tankers to back up its small fleet of aging KC-135s, which are the only way its Rafales can carry out attacks throughout northern Mali. The U.S. hasn't agreed to help on that one. Again, Paris has an order in for 14 new Airbus 330s to replace its tankers, but this purchase was postponed in 2010.

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324624404578257672194671036.html?mod=WSJ_hp_us_mostpop_read

In Paris they simply stared when I spoke to them in French; I never did succeed in making those idiots understand their language.

Mark Twain.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December:
DJIA: +100 Down. NASDAQ: +123 Unch. SP500: +129 Up.  All three indexes are giving different signals. A time for caution.

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