Monday, 20 December 2010

Europe Frozen & Closed.

Baltic Dry Index. 1999 -29

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE.

The warnings about global warming have been extremely clear for a long time. We are facing a global climate crisis. It is deepening. We are entering a period of consequences.

Al Gore.

As readers of the LIR know only too well, we are probably entering or have entered a new “Dalton Minimum” double 11 year cycle of reduced sunspots. The past suggests that this will be a period of global cooling, although quite why this happens is a subject of much disagreement. Sadly the operators of Europe’s airports and road systems aren’t readers of my daily updates or even occasional readers of the blogs sunspot section. As a result no one, absolutely no one in Europe prepared for this year’s record cold. Roads go unplowed trapping hundreds of motorists unwise enough to think that they can go on as normal and drive through blizzards or on ice. People were trapped overnight Saturday from Britain down to Italy and across Germany. Thousands are trapped at Europe’s snow clogged airports, with thousands more unable to get to the airports, and thousands more stranded around the world unable to fly back. In the week before Christmas, the best laid plans retailers and the hospitality industry are all going horribly wrong. Today, we present dumbed down Europe. While Europe’s bungling politicians are off tilting at windmills, busy trying to save the planet from the nonexistent threat of global warming, all across Europe people are unprepared for life in a 20 to 30 year period of a colder world.

Christmas travel plans ruined for half a million air passengers

The boss of Britain’s busiest airport was facing mounting anger after the Christmas travel plans of half a million air passengers were ruined.

By David Millward, Martin Evans and Stephen Adams 9:15PM GMT 19 Dec 2010

Snow and ice grounded the vast majority of flights in and out of Britain, with Heathrow the worst-affected airport.

The airport cancelled all incoming flights on Sunday (December 19) after the authorities were unable to de-ice the taxiing areas and stands where planes are parked.

As the airport was inundated with increasingly angry passengers trying to leave, many other travellers faced a frantic scramble to get home to Britain in time for Christmas.

Most flights this week were already full to capacity during what is the busiest period of the year.

One million passengers were due to pass through Heathrow alone this week and with warnings of further bad weather in the next few days, some travellers whose flights have been cancelled were told they faced waits of up to five days.

---- As passengers were forced to sleep in terminal buildings for a third night, there was mounting criticism of BAA, the airport operator.

----BAA, which is controlled by Spain’s Ferrovial, claimed it had spent an extra £6million on equipment to deal with snow and ice compared with last year. But with pre-tax profits expected to near £1 billion this year, the operator has been accused of failing to invest properly in equipment to cope with the extreme cold.

Only 16 flights left Heathrow yesterday out of a total of 650 scheduled services. More than 400,000 passengers had been due to pass through the airport this weekend. Although the runways were deemed safe, the areas around the stands remained covered in ice making it too dangerous to move planes.

Economy feels chill as UK grinds to a halt

Cost of travel and retail chaos running at £1bn a day / Government under pressure over lack of preparation

By Jonathan Brown Monday, 20 December 2010

The economic impact of the freezing winter will deepen this week as Britain prepares for more travel gridlock, and millions of workers, travellers and shoppers were expected to stay at home in the run-up to Christmas rather than brave the icy conditions.

Heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures cost the aviation and retail industries many millions of pounds in lost revenue during one of the most crucial weekends of the year.

Heathrow, the world's busiest international airport, was closed to all but a handful of flights on Saturday and yesterday, forcing thousands to abandon their festive travel plans. Meanwhile, shopping centres in the South were also badly hit as consumers were forced to postpone buying Christmas presents on what had been billed as "Super Saturday". But with the Met Office predicting no let-up in freezing conditions and more snow likely in the South-east, the North and Scotland, economists fear that the knock-on effects will begin to hit the whole of the UK's economy at a key moment in its fragile recovery from recession.

Estimates from the insurer Royal Sun Alliance (RSA) have put the cost of the weather to the economy at £1bn per day, a sum that is thought to be hitting retailers, restaurants and bars the hardest. The total cost is expected to be around £13bn.

Howard Archer, the chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said many firms could now consider working between Christmas and the New Year to make up for lost business. But retailers, who had been hoping for a bonanza festive season as consumers sought to beat the January VAT rise, fear that many shoppers might now simply not bother.

"It now looks highly probable that some people may end up buying fewer Christmas presents and these sales are not subsequently made up," said Mr Archer. "If the bad weather persists most or all of the coming week, these problems will be magnified."

It's not just the UK – the Continent is suffering too

By John Lichfield in Paris Monday, 20 December 2010

Airports were closed, motorists were stranded, football matches were cancelled, politicians were blamed.... Britain? Yes, but the picture was the same in almost every other European country.

In Germany, hundreds of travellers were trapped at Frankfurt airport overnight. Almost 500 flights were cancelled as blizzards set in, and despite an emergency law last month ordering all motorists to buy winter tyres, accidents caused immense tailbacks on autobahns on Friday and Saturday.

In France, 40 per cent of flights were cancelled at Roissy-Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports. Most remaining flights were delayed. Over 20,000 passengers were stranded at Charles de Gaulle alone.

Even the Eiffel Tower was forced to close because large falls of snow had accumulated on the steel-work and on the lifts. A concert by the American pop-singer Lady Gaga at the Palais Omnisports in Paris was cancelled because equipment trucks broke a government ban on heavy transport on motorways.

Even in Scandinavia, often held up as an example of how to cope with winter, many trains were cancelled and roads blocked by drifting snow and ice after temperatures fell to -20C.

Travel chaos across Europe

Last Updated: Monday, December 20, 2010, 07:09

Heavy snows throughout Europe have caused transport chaos for the travelling public with hundreds of flights cancelled or delayed over the final weekend before Christmas.

While airports in Ireland remained open many flights were cancelled as a result of snow and ice across Britain and parts of Germany, France, Italy, Sweden and the Netherlands over the weekend.

This morning all Irish airports are open however passengers are strongly advised to consult with their airline before travelling to the airport because of the risk of knock-on delays.

Ryanair has put on a number of extra flights today in an attempt to clear the backlog and Aer Arann has had to cancel a number its services including Knock to Dublin, Sligo to Dublin and Dublin to Sligo.

London’s Heathrow airport is open this morning but they said there will be further delays and cancellations in the next few days.

Lufthansa said it expected a reduction in flights within Germany and Europe.

There is a risk of snow of up to 20cm in parts of the south and west of the UK today after a fall of 15cm yesterday forced cancelations at Heathrow and Gatwick for a second day.

Frankfurt will likely have "light snow" today and tomorrow, according to the World Meteorological Organization's website.

Flights at Paris's Roissy-Charles de Gaulle Airport were reduced by 40 per cent because of snowfall in northern France, the nation's civil aviation authority said. French authorities have prevented heavy trucks and coaches from using roads in northern France and the greater Paris area and car use is inadvisable.

Amsterdam's Schiphol said on its website passengers should be prepared for delays and cancellations. Air France-KLM Group's Dutch KLM unit cancelled more than 60 departing and arriving flights at the airport yesterday.

Two thousand scientists, in a hundred countries, engaged in the most elaborate, well organized scientific collaboration in the history of humankind, have produced long-since a consensus that we will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming.

Al Gore.

At the Comex silver depositories Friday, final figures were: Registered 46.36 Moz, Eligible 58.87 Moz, Total 105.23 Moz.


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks today, unless you consider Europe’s politicians crooks for not informing the public about our unfolding mini ice age, today Germany’s weather service is suddenly talking about our new reality. Where were they 2005 on. Now comes the scramble for adequate energy supply.

Today we're seeing that climate change is about more than a few unseasonably mild winters or hot summers. It's about the chain of natural catastrophes and devastating weather patterns that global warming is beginning to set off around the world.. the frequency and intensity of which are breaking records thousands of years old.

President Barrack Obama.

Speculation Alert: “New Little Ice Age Cannot Be Ruled Out”
Wednesday, 15 December 2010 09:16 Rickmer Flor,

Everybody is talking about global warming – but in Germany and also in many other countries around the world people are currently fighting with the adversities of extreme cold. And indeed: “The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,” said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to . And it might even get worse: “It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,” the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.

---- In Berlin, there was an absolute cold record in early December, “For 100 years it had not been as cold as in the first decade of December,” said Globig. This also applied to other regions.

--- Globig sees two main causes for the significant cooling: First, the cyclical changes in the big air currents over the Atlantic, and second, the variations in solar activity.

---- The low temperatures could very well go on a few years, maybe decades. Even more icy cold could be possible. „It has happened before, and can be explained with natural climate variability,” said Globig. We could even be at the beginning of a Little Ice Age, “the probability is at least given.”

This is also supported by the current development of solar activity. Solar activity has passed the zenith of a nearly 200 years continuing phase of high activity and will decline in coming decades. Around the years 2040/2050, scientists expect a new so-called solar minimum, with very little supply of solar energy into the Earth’s atmosphere.More.

Not only is the Kyoto approach to global warming wrong-headed, the climate change establishment's suppression of dissent and criticism is little short of a scandal. The IPCC should be shut down… In Europe, where climate change absolutism is at its strongest, the quasi-religion of greenery in general and the climate change issue in particular have filled the vacuum of organised religion, with reasoned questioning of its mantras regarded as a form of blasphemy.

Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November:

DJIA: +178 Down. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +167 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. November is the sixth down month in a row.

Sunspots – A 22 year colder world? (From 2004?)

Spotless Days Dec 12
Current Stretch:2 days

2010 total: 47days (13%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 815 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

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