Wednesday 28 April 2010

The EU Chernobyl.


Baltic Dry Index. 3203 +183

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

“I've fallen, and I can't get up!" Euro-zone captive state.

"We're sending help immediately, Club Med." German dispatcher.

PANIC! While Americans were being entertained yesterday by the effortless Bankster win in the match between the Odious Banksters versus the Loathsome Senators, the Euro-zone fell off a cliff and couldn’t get up. There are cries now for the ECB to use its nuke option and follow the US Fed and the Bank of England and start monetizing the Eurozone governments’ debt. Of course there’s no need (yet) to monetize Germany’s sovereign debt, but their interest rate will rise once the ECB starts monetizing Club Med. Below, the Telegraph covers Europe starting to panic. Stay long precious metals. The great Nixonian error of fiat currency is entering another more disastrous phase on the path to western ruination. Greece is already gone, bring on Portugal and Spain.

"Anything that can go wrong will go wrong." This piece of wisdom, known as Murphy's Law, currently applies extraordinarily well to economic policy in the euro zone.

Der Spiegel.


ECB may have to turn to 'nuclear option' to prevent Southern European debt collapse
The European Central Bank may soon have to invoke emergency powers to prevent the disintegration of southern European bond markets, with ominous signs of investor flight from Spain and Italy.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor

Published: 7:09PM BST 27 Apr 2010

Greece’s fortunes were dealt yet another blow as Standard & Poor’s slashed its credit rating to junk status - BB+ - the first time that has happened to a euro member since the single currency was created, pushing yields on 10-year Greek bonds up to a record 9.73pc.

The credit-rating agency also cut Portugal’s sovereign debt ratings by two notches to A-, as the swirling storm hit the country with full-force.

“We have gone past the point of no return,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.“There is a complete loss of confidence. The bond markets are in disintegration and it is getting worse every day.

-----Mr Cailloux said the ECB should resort to its “nuclear option” of intervening directly in the markets to purchase government bonds.

This is prohibited in normal times under the EU Treaties but the bank can buy a wide range of assets under its “structural operations” mandate in times of systemic crisis, theoretically in unlimited quantities.

Mr Cailloux added: “This feels like the banking crisis in late 2008 post-Lehman, though it has not yet spread to other asset classes. The ECB will have to act it if does.”

Yields on 10-year Portuguese bonds spiked 48 basis points to 5.67pc, replicating the pattern seen as the Greek crisis started.

Portugal’s public debt will be just 84pc of GDP by the end of this year, far lower than that of Greece, at 124pc. However, its private debt is much higher and data from the IMF shows that its external debt position is worse.

Interest payments on foreign debt will be 8pc of GDP this year. Portugal’s net international investment position is minus 100pc of GDP, the worst in the eurozone.

-----The issue of the ECB buying bonds is a political minefield. Any such action would inevitably be viewed in Germany as a form of printing money to bail out Club Med debtors, and the start of a slippery slope towards in an “inflation union”.

But the ECB may no longer have any choice. There is a growing view that nothing short of a monetary blitz — or “shock and awe” on the bonds markets — can halt the spiral under way.

-----The bond markets are already “pricing in” a default of some kind in Greece, where rates on 2-year debt spiked close to 15pc in panic trading yesterday. The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund both insist that restructuring is out of the question but investors have become cynical after months of EU rhetoric and foot-dragging by Berlin.

The ECB cannot lightly risk a second sovereign crisis erupting, with dangers of a spillover into Spain.

The exposure of Spanish-based banks to Portuguese debt exceeds $80bn, according to the Bank for International Settlements. There were early signs of strain in the Spanish banking system yesterday.

Banks were forced to pay a premium in the domestic “repo” market on fears of counterparty risk, although the Bank of Spain has so far won plaudits for ensuring that banks have large safety buffers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7640783/ECB-may-have-to-turn-to-nuclear-option-to-prevent-Southern-European-debt-collapse.html

A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.

H.L. Mencken.

Back across the English Channel, Perfidious Albion would never do anything as foolish as tax and work shy Greece, would they? Below, the Telegraph covers a story LIR readers are all too familiar with. Nine days out from the UK general election, all 3 major parties are still misleading the electorate on the scale of the financial disaster team Blair-Brown’s socialists inflicted on dumbed down Britain. Perhaps it’s why the worst Prime Minister since Lord North lost the American colonies now seems to have virtually given up campaigning to win re-election.

General Election 2010: multi-billion black holes in all three parties' spending plans
Voters are being kept in the dark by all three main political parties, which have failed to disclose the scale of tax rises and public sector cuts required to tackle the financial crisis, Britain’s leading economic forecaster has warned.
By Robert Winnett and Edmund Conway Published: 10:00PM BST 27 Apr 2010

The Institute for Fiscal Studies criticised Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats for not being frank with the public about the drastic measures needed to repair the government’s finances.

The institute claimed that the parties have black holes of up to £52 billion in the economic plans they have published as part of the election campaign.

The average family already faces tax rises of more than £500 a year in the face of the £1 trillion deficit. But, according to the IFS, Labour will need to increase taxes by another £7 billion a year under its economic plan and the Conservatives will need to raise taxes by about £3 billion.

A government run by any of the main parties would find it impossible to cut public services as sharply as they have proposed and would have to raise billions more in taxes, it claimed.

Tory plans to cut the deficit by more than £70 billion over the next parliament would result in a squeeze on government spending not seen since the 1920s, figures produced by the institute suggested.

Under Labour and Lib Dem policies, public spending would face the biggest cuts since the 1970s, because they intend to raise more tax than the Conservatives, the IFS calculated.

The damning analysis was released ahead of tomorrow’s final television debate, on the theme of economic affairs. Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg were accused of clashing over peripheral issues so far, while failing to address the major economic problems they will face over the next five years.

The IFS said it was “striking” how reticent the main parties had been in explaining the “defining task of the next administration”. The economists warned that none of the parties had come “anywhere close” to identifying how their spending plans might be achieved.

----The IFS said that welfare benefits may have to be cut, raising the prospect of means-testing for universal payments such as child benefit. Last night, Robert Chote, the director of the IFS, said: “For the voters to be able to make an informed choice, the parties need to explain clearly how they would go about achieving it. Unfortunately, they have not.

-----According to the IFS, the Conservatives have the biggest black hole in their economic plans. Mr Cameron has set out plans to cut borrowing by more than his rivals over the next few years. He has set out public spending cuts of only £11.3 billion and tax rises of about £11 billion. However, there is a £52.4 billion gap in the spending plans, according to the IFS.
The Labour black hole is estimated at £44.1 billion, while the Lib Dems have the smallest unexplained gap, estimated at £34.5 billion.

However, the IFS described some of the Lib Dem plans as “highly speculative”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7641517/General-Election-2010-multi-billion-black-holes-in-all-three-parties-spending-plans.html

Below, the ever excellent analysts at Zero Hedge thinks the UK’s next government is in for a rude, Greek style, awakening. The CDS traders are on to the UK’s politicians weakness, and one way or another the UK’s free lunch is about to come to its end.

Red Lights Flashing For UK Credit Spreads According To CDS Market
By Tyler Durden Created 04/27/2010 - 23:42

The CDS market, as always, is prophetic to the dot: after main deriskers in the past two weeks were Spain, Portugal and France, so far the spread blow out in these markets has materialized like a Swiss watch. Which is why Ambrose Evans-Pritchard better be looking at this week's DTCC data, because the credit market is flashing a bright red warning light over his favorite bankrupt country - the UK (incidentally, the week's largest net derisker, just after Goldman Sachs). Second in order of sovereign implosion - Ireland. The British Isles, at least according to CDS traders who time after time prove they have far more sense than their equity equivalents, are about to become a hotbed of credit activity, and not in a good way.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/red-lights-flashing-uk-credit-spreads-according-cds-market

In other news, China says it is preparing another massive stimulus package. Presumably, when the bean counters in Beijing look at the real economic figures for China, they see the bubble bursting before year end.

China May Announce 4 Trillion Yuan Stimulus, China Business Says

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- China will announce in August a new stimulus package of possibly 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion), the China Business newspaper reported on its Web site, citing unidentified sources.

The plan, from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, will likely cover nine industries including information technology and new energy, the report said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=ajsv6gEJ15Nw

We end for the day with more on the oil spill that was largely “contained” on Friday, according to the US Coastguard and today is about to become an ecological disaster if it hits sensitive shores.

Spill is near endangered species, fisheries
By MATTHEW TRESAUGUE HOUSTON CHRONICLE April 27, 2010, 10:56PM

The growing oil spill in waters near Louisiana is a threat to an astonishing range of life, from endangered sperm whales and sea turtles to migratory birds and prized shrimp and oysters.
With thousands of gallons of crude pouring into the Gulf of Mexico each day, the leading edge of the spill had crept Tuesday within 20 miles of Venice, La. — although forecasts indicate it won't hit the coast before Friday, if at all.

The crude gushing from the rig Deepwater Horizon's well can be diluted quickly in open water, and scientists say it's best to try to contain it in the Gulf. In habitats like marshes and mangroves, oil's effects can be disastrous because it is tougher to remove.

“If this oil reaches the coast, there will be some pretty severe impacts to these habitats,” said Tom Minello, a Galveston-based ecologist for the National Marine Fisheries Service.

Of immediate concern are areas like the Breton Sound on the eastern side of the Mississippi River's mouth. It's one of the most productive fisheries for shrimp and oysters in the nation.

Threat to oysters, shrimp

Louisiana's reefs produce roughly 250 million pounds of oysters and generate $300 million a year for businesses dependent on the harvest, said Mike Voisin, president of oyster processor Motivatit Seafoods in Houma, La.

If the spill moves into the sound, officials could close it to harvesters. The oil might not kill the oysters, but the contamination would strip them of commercial value, Voisin said.

-----The spill also threatens havens for migratory birds. Louisiana has asked the Coast Guard to protect the Pass-a-Loutre Wildlife Management Area near the Mississippi from the spill with floating boom lines.

Also east of the river, brown pelicans, royal terns and laughing gulls are among dozens of species nesting on the Breton and Chandeleur barrier islands.

If oil gets on the birds, cleanup crews will find the islands hard to reach, accessible only by boat.
“It's a pristine area,” said Eugene Turner, a Louisiana State University ecologist. “I can't think of anything good that could come from this.”

The spill is still spreading because Coast Guard and BP crews cannot cap the leaks created by last week's collapse of the Deep­water Horizon.

-----Some environmentalists said more should be done for marine mammals at risk.
A crew spotted three sperm whales in the spill's vicinity this week. Planes dropping chemicals to break down the oil were to avoid the endangered species, which number 300 to 500 in the Gulf.
The area is also the only known spawning ground for the western Atlantic bluefin tuna, a protected species.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6978806.html

Coast Guard may set oil slick on fire
Published: April 27, 2010 at 9:07 PM
HOUSTON, April 27 (UPI) -- An oil slick in the Gulf Mexico has come with 20 miles of the coastline and Coast Guard officials said Tuesday they are considering setting the slick on fire.
The slick resulted from last week's oil rig explosion near Louisiana, which left 11 workers missing and presumably dead. Oil was leaking from a Deepwater Horizon well in the gulf, 50 miles off the Louisiana coast, at a rate of 42,000 gallons a day, officials said.

-----The April 20 spill, though smaller than a huge 1979 spill near Mexico, is already worse than the 1979 Ixtoc 1 leak, if for no other reason than that 11 oil workers' lives were lost, the Houston Chronicle said Tuesday.

However, the 1979 spill released far moil oil into the environment than last week's disaster. The Ixtoc well poured about 140 million gallons of oil into the gulf for 295 days before it was capped. At its current rate, it would take nine years for the Deepwater Horizon spill to match the 1979 spill, the Chronicle reported.

The current oil spill is closer to the U.S. Gulf coast shores, and there is concern it could damage the coastline more than the 1979 spill did, scientists said.

But marine biologists say the clean-up system is better now than it was more than 30 years ago.

"We're better prepared now. If they're able to clean it up out there in the open water, that's the best thing they can do," said Wes Tunnell, a marine biologist with the Corpus Christi Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico studies.

The Deepwater Horizon oil slick is about 80 miles long and 48 miles wide, the Chronicle said. For the most part, the current slick is a thin layer on the water's surface, CNN reported.

A controlled burn, using fireproof booms and conducted only in daylight, could began Wednesday, CNN said.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2010/04/27/Coast-Guard-may-set-oil-slick-on-fire/UPI-31961272389351/

Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.

Mark Twain.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday, final figures were: Registered 51.25 Moz, Eligible 63.90 Moz, Total 115.15 Moz.

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Crooks & Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No great vampire squids today, we’re sated for now with fishy banksters. Well, you didn’t really believe that, did you. Up next, Bloomberg with more on Goldie setting up the clients to buy the “cats and dogs”. Marketeers liked what they saw, they scored it a win for the Odious Banksters.
Goldman Armed Salespeople to Dump Bonds, E-mails Show
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., seeking to reduce assets tied to the declining U.S. housing market, urged its sales force in 2006 and 2007 to sell those products to clients, newly disclosed internal e-mails show.

The e-mails, including communications from Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, show that employees discussed how to “arm” salespeople to shed bonds the firm found too risky to hold.

The e-mails were released yesterday by Senator Carl Levin in connection with a hearing where current and former managers testified about the firm’s role in the financial crisis.
Levin, the Michigan Democrat who heads the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, grilled the executives about the firm’s bets against the housing market and its disclosure to clients.

In one of the e-mails, Blankfein asked whether employees were doing enough to sell bonds backed by home loans including subprime mortgages.

“Could/should we have cleaned up these books before and are we doing enough right now to sell off cats and dogs in other books throughout the division,” Blankfein, 55, wrote in an e- mail dated Feb. 11, 2007.

Questioned about the e-mail at yesterday’s hearing, Blankfein told senators that his comment didn’t represent an opinion of the bonds.

“When I use the expression ‘cats and dogs’ I mean miscellaneous stuff,” he said. “This is part of my normal point about aged inventory. Part of the discipline of our business is to manage risk and sell inventory.”

Clients’ Questions

The e-mails show that as early as the fall of 2006 clients were questioning products tied to the mortgage market. On Oct. 19, 2006, Mitchell Resnick sent an e-mail to two colleagues asking whether the firm had material about “how great” BBB bonds tied to home loans were. BBB is a credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings that indicates an asset is two levels above junk.

“A common response I am hearing” from potential investors is “a concern about the housing market and BBB in particular,” Resnick wrote. “We need to arm sales with a bit more. Do we have anything?”

Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar convened a meeting of mortgage traders and risk managers on Dec. 14, 2006, according to a document prepared by the firm that the Senate panel released yesterday.

‘Net Long’

At the time, Goldman Sachs had a “net long exposure” to the subprime-mortgage market, meaning the bank was betting the market would continue to rise. At the meeting, executives agreed that the firm should “reduce its overall exposure to the subprime mortgage market,” the document said.

Goldman Sachs’s Stacey Bash-Polley sent an e-mail to colleagues six days later with the subject line “Mezz Risk,” a reference to lower tranches of collateralized debt obligations linked to mortgages. Investors in mezzanine tranches are among the first to lose money when the asset starts souring.

“We have been thinking collectively about how to help people move some of the risk,” wrote Bash-Polley, an executive in the Goldman Sachs division that sold bonds. “We need to make sure we arm” salespeople “with our pricing and have them focus on the more difficult positions.”

Targeting Clients

In targeting clients, Bash-Polley wrote that Goldman Sachs should focus on those that “can possibly do larger size at a level that would be attractive when you take into consideration the size of risk we could move.”

“Makes sense to me,” responded Kevin Gasvoda, a Goldman Sachs colleague.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoT.IqoUZk14&pos=4

Goldman Sachs Emerges From Senate Showdown Ahead $549 Million
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executives endured more than 10 hours of congressional grilling in one of the most public, and most hostile, political lashings in the firm’s 141-year history. By day’s end, the investment bank’s market value had risen by $549 million.
Senator Carl Levin and members of his Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations said evidence they presented made the case for Congress to pass legislation tightening financial regulation. Goldman Sachs, the world’s most profitable securities firm, was alone among 79 stocks of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financial Index in posting a gain yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a8TTAuOfWeXo

“We have gone past the point of no return. There is a complete loss of confidence. The bond markets are in disintegration and it is getting worse every day.”

Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.



Why A UK Hung Parliament is Likely. Stay long precious Metals.
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March:

DJIA: +168 UP. NASDAQ: +370 UP. SP500: +196 UP. The great Bull market goes on with the all three continuing higher in positive numbers.

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If you can, help the LIR stay around and make a difference. Please make a donation at the PayPal link on the website or better still become a sponsor for what looks like an exciting 2010. Capitalism not banksterism. Many thanks to all who have helped.

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