Baltic Dry Index. 875 -13 Brent Crude
49.96
All the best
stories in the world are but one story in reality - the story of escape. It is
the only thing which interests us all and at all times, how to escape.
Walter Bagehot.
We open what I suspect will become Deutsche Bank’s make or break key week, with oil rallying on OPEC’s aspirational plan to support oil prices, while pumping out near record amounts of crude oil. How many times have we heard this sort of nonsense before. Yet in today’s market casinos fuelled by central banksters pumping in record amounts of new electronic cash at the push of a button, leveraged derivatives gambling is the only game left in town.
We open with Brent Crude testing 50 dollars to the upside again. Supposedly OPEC is to let us all know how this new levitation regime works at the end of November. To me this looks like nothing more than a bull raid to squeeze out the shorts.
Oil Bulls Rewarded as Crude Surges After OPEC Output Agreement
October 3, 2016 — 12:00 AM BSTOil investors’ bullish bets on last week’s OPEC meeting paid off.
While most analysts weren’t expecting a deal, money managers increased wagers on rising prices by the most since January ahead of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ talks in Algiers. Oil capped the biggest monthly gain since April after the group announced Sept. 28 an agreement to limit production for the first time in eight years.
"There’s been a lot of skepticism," said Eric Nuttall, who manages a $130 million (C$171 million) energy fund at Sprott Asset Management LP in Toronto. "OPEC has changed since the last cycle. They’ve just gone through the worst selloff of oil in history. I’m more bullish than I was, and I was bullish before."
Investors increased their long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 24,131 futures and options, or 8.1 percent, during the week ended Sept. 27, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bets on falling prices dropped, after increasing at the fastest pace in more than a year during the previous week.
WTI futures rose 2.8 percent to $44.67 a barrel in the report week before settling at $48.24 Sept. 30. Crude climbed 7.9 percent last month, the first September increase since 2010.
"They did show they are going to defend prices," said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $133 billion of assets. "They don’t want to see market volatility below $40 and are willing to defend it."
OPEC pumped a record 33.69 million barrels a day in August, according to a Bloomberg survey, with Saudi Arabia boosting output to an all-time high.
But it’s challenging for the group to follow through on the cuts -- and, historically, there’s been a "credibility problem," he said. While the deal could add as much as $10 a barrel to oil prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it’s unclear how the plan will be implemented.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov questioned the plan and said Sept. 30 the country will not revise its budget outlook, which is based on the assumption that oil will average $40 a barrel the next three years.
Citigroup analysts pointed to OPEC’s plan to set up a committee to negotiate how to divide up cuts among members, noting that “this is still kicking the can down the road.” Iran, Nigeria and Libya have said they’re exempt from a deal.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-02/oil-bulls-rewarded-as-crude-surges-after-opec-output-agreement
As “the next Lehman” gets closer by the day, and with it the likelihood of the collapse of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money, demand for fully paid up, numbered physical gold held outside of the banking system is soaring. No one wants their gold confiscated by larcenous feckless governments, or “Corzined,” hypothecated away MF Global style when trouble hits.
"All safe deposit boxes in banks
or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the
presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
Secret Alpine Gold Vaults Are the New Swiss Bank Accounts
“There has been a real interest in alternatives to bank deposits.”
September 30, 2016 — 8:00 AM BST
Deep in the Swiss Alps, next to an old airstrip suitable for landing
Gulfstream and Falcon jets, is a vast bunker that holds what may be one of the
world’s largest stashes of gold. The entrance, protected by a guard in a
bulletproof vest, is a small metal door set into a granite mountain face at the
end of a narrow country lane. Behind two farther doors sits a 3.5-ton metal
portal that opens only after a code is entered and an iris scan and a
facial-recognition screen are performed. A maze of tunnels once used by Swiss
armed forces lies within.
The owner of this gold vault wants to remain anonymous for fear of
compromising security, and he worries that even disclosing the name of his
company might lead thieves his way. He’s quick to dismiss questions about how
carefully he vets clients but says many who come to him looking for a safe
haven for their assets don’t pass his sniff test. “For every client we take, we
turn one or two away,” he says. “We don’t want problems.”
Demand for gold storage has risen since the 2008 financial crisis. Many
of the wealthy see owning gold as a hedge against the insecurity of banks and a
reasonable investment at a time when markets are volatile and bank accounts and
low-risk bonds pay almost no yield. It may also be a way to avoid the
increasing scrutiny of tax authorities. In high-profile cases, U.S., French,
and German prosecutors have gone after citizens of those countries with
undeclared Swiss bank accounts.
Swiss storage operations such as these don’t have the same obligation
that Swiss banks do to report suspicious transactions to federal regulators.
Americans aren’t required under the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act to
declare gold stored outside financial institutions.
Of the roughly 1,000 former military bunkers still in existence across
Switzerland, a few hundred have been sold in recent years, and about 10 are now
storage sites holding gold as well as computer data, according to the Swiss
defense department.
Few match the opulence of the airstrip setup, whose owner claims to run
the largest store of gold for private clients—and the seventh-largest gold
vault in the world. Near the runway sits the VIP lounge and a pair of luxurious
apartments for clients. The walls of the apartments are lined with aged wood
from Polish barns. South African quartzite was chosen for the floors to match
the faded gray timber, and the amenities—bathroom mirror, TV screens—can
retract into the ceiling, counter, or wall. The owner offers a place for
clients to sleep and eat, because “many do not want to leave a paper trail of
credit card receipts and passports” at hotels and restaurants.
Some miles away, Dolf Wipfli, the founder and chief executive officer of
a different company, Swiss Data Safe, is one of the few operators willing to be
interviewed about his business. The gold Swiss Data Safe stores for clients is
kept in a mountainside bunker outside the hamlet of Amsteg. On a recent tour,
Wipfli wouldn’t disclose the gold’s exact location, choosing instead to take
visitors into a room containing computer servers for the other half of his
business, providing data backup storage. Wipfli declines to say how much he
charges to store gold. The company’s website has versions in Chinese and
Russian.
Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/secret-swiss-gold-vaults-are-the-new-swiss-bank-accounts
We close for today awaiting bankster action from Italy. As usual with financial news from Italy, fires, fiddling, and Nero’s Rome springs to mind.
Senior Italian bankers to meet Monday over sale of four banks: sources
Italy's economy minister has called a meeting with some of the country's
top bankers on Monday to discuss stalled efforts to sell four small banks that
were rescued from bankruptcy last year, sources said.
Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco was expected to join the gathering,
which comes just days after sources said the European Union had agreed to
extend a Sept. 30 deadline for the sale of the troubled lenders.
Il Messaggero newspaper reported at the weekend that the European Central
Bank had rejected a plan put forward by UBI Banca to buy three of the four
banks -- Banca Marche, Banca Etruria and CariChieti.
It said the ECB was demanding that UBI should raise 600 million euros in
fresh capital if it wanted to pursue the deal. UBI was only prepared to raise a
maximum 400 million euros, the paper added in its unsourced article.
The ECB declined to comment on the story.
"The meeting is planned for (Monday) afternoon. There is only one
item on the agenda; how to find a solution for the (four) banks," said a
source, who declined to be named.
"Frankfurt (the ECB) is putting up ever more hurdles. We have to
find a solution now because we can't carry on with this uncertainty," the
source said.
Another source said the meeting would be held in the morning.
Two other sources looked to play down the encounter, saying it was a
routine gathering of senior bankers, like others already held in Rome earlier
this year, with no major announcements expected.
Morehttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-banks-sale-idUSKCN1220VF
“It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario
within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any
of those [Credit Default Swap] transactions.”
Joseph J. Cassano, former head
of A.I.G. Financial Products, London, August 2007. AIG was bailed out with 85
billion September 2008, after Cassano’s riskless CDS blew up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Cassano
At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered
30.36 Moz,
Eligible 142.96 Moz, Total 173.32 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Along the lines that it never rains but it pours,
the sky fell in on Germany’s dodgy Deutsche Bank on Saturday and Sunday. If found guilty in Milan, I wonder if this
triggers the RICO Acts in the USA? From Bloomberg’s reporting it sounds like
old Three Card Monte di Siena has cut a deal, which can’t be good for DB. I
suspect that this will be the key week of the year for DB. By the end of the
week Deutsche Bank will either be well on its way to restoring confidence in
its brand and survival, or will be caught up in “a next Lehman” whirlpool.
“I
think we agree, the past is over.”
DB
CEO John Cryan, with apologies to President George W. Bush.
Deutsche Bank Charged Over Paschi Accounts as Legal Hits Mount
October 1, 2016 — 8:34 PM BST
Deutsche Bank AG was dealt a fresh blow on Saturday when an Italian
court charged the company, an employee and five former executives for colluding
with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA to falsify the Italian lender’s
accounts in 2008.
Michele Faissola, who oversaw global rates at the time, and Ivor
Dunbar, former co-head of global capital markets, were among those
indicted in a Milan court. Both were top deputies to former Deutsche Bank
co-chief executive officer Anshu Jain, and both have left the company.
Deutsche Bank has been trying to reassure investors and clients that it
can withstand the financial strain of mounting legal bills. A U.S. Department
of Justice request last month that the lender pay $14 billion to settle a case
tied to mortgage-backed securities rattled confidence and drove its shares to
record lows. CEO John Cryan had to defend the bank’s resilience after some
hedge funds cut back their cash balances.
“This is another ugly picture, and it’s painful even if it’s an old transaction,”
Christopher Wheeler, a financial analyst with Atlantic Equities LLP in London,
said of the Italian case.
Faissola declined to comment. Dunbar didn’t immediately return a message
to his mobile phone.
The charges follow a three-year probe that, according to prosecutors,
showed Monte Paschi used the transactions to hide losses, leading to a
misrepresentation of its accounts between 2008 and 2012. The deals came to
light in January 2013, when Bloomberg News reported that Monte Paschi used
derivatives struck with Deutsche Bank to mask losses from an earlier derivative
contract dubbed Santorini.
Monte Paschi, the world’s oldest bank, restated its accounts and had to
tap shareholders twice to replenish capital amid a surge in bad loans and
losses on derivatives. It’s now attempting to convince investors to buy
billions of euros of soured debt before another stock sale.
Deutsche Bank’s shares have slumped 49 percent in Frankfurt this year, and
swung wildly last week. Monte Paschi has dropped 84 percent this year on
concern it will struggle to restore profitability and strengthen its finances.The Deutsche Bank managers were indicted along with former executives at Nomura Holdings Inc., who struck a similar deal with the Italian bank, and at Monte Paschi.
The international firms are also named as defendants in the indictment, as Italian law makes companies liable for certain crimes committed by their representatives. A trial is scheduled for Dec. 15.
---- Monte Paschi asked for a plea-bargain agreement in July. The lender said at that time that the request was agreed to with prosecutors in the Milan investigation, and if accepted by the judge the bank will need to forfeit 10 million euros ($11.2 million) and pay a fine of 600,000 euros. A decision is expected on Oct. 14.
---- Deutsche Bank faces inquiries into additional legal issues, including precious metals trading and billions of dollars in transfers out of Russia.
"When it rains, it pours,” said Marco Elser, a partner at
Lonsin Capital Ltd., a London-based asset-management firm. “They have their
hand caught in every single cookie jar. I think the market is seeing a wounded
lion and will soon prey on it."
More
Merkel’s Deputy Criticizes Deutsche Bank for ‘Speculation’ Model
October 2, 2016 — 9:36 PM BST
German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel criticized Deutsche Bank for building
its business on “speculation” and said he’s concerned about job losses
at the nation’s biggest lender.Gabriel, head of the junior party in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition, suggested it’s ironic that Chief Executive Officer John Cryan, in a letter to staff, blamed market forces and “heavy speculation” for buffeting Deutsche Bank’s shares.
“I don’t know whether to laugh or be angry that the bank that declared speculation to be its business model now declares itself a victim of speculators,” Gabriel, who leads Germany’s Social Democratic Party, told reporters on his plane during a trip to Iran. “I’m worried about the people employed by Deutsche Bank.”
Almost half of the bank’s 101,000 employees are based in Germany. Deutsche Bank, Europe’s biggest investment bank, dropped to record lows last week after after U.S. authorities sought a fine of as much as $14 billion for mortgage-backed securities deals. The stock rebounded on Friday after Agence France-Presse reported that the lender was nearing a settlement of $5.4 billion with the Justice Department.
German hard line on Italy may rebound with Deutsche in crisis
After months of argument over how to deal with bad debts in the Italian financial system, Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) instead took center stage on Friday, with its share price near record lows and its chief executive trying to reassure staff and markets that Germany's biggest bank remains robust.
For many in Italy, including Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, this diverted attention from the country's own difficulties in recapitalising the likes of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena. (BMPS.MI)
Renzi went easy on expressing any Schadenfreude on Friday, but knocked the ball back into the German court. "We have always said that the European Union has to do everything in its power to fix the problems of the banking sector and the main worry focuses on the German lenders," he told national broadcaster RAI.
He is not alone. The International Monetary Fund has named Deutsche as a bigger potential risk to the wider financial system than any other global bank.
With Monte dei Paschi struggling to persuade investors to back its third recapitalization in as many years, Economy minister Pier Carlo Padoan acknowledged Italy had to get its own house in order, but not in isolation.
"Just like the problem of bad bank loans must be solved within a reasonable time frame, so it should be for Deutsche Bank's problems," he told La Stampa newspaper.
Rome and Berlin have been at odds for months over demands that Italian savers should shoulder the burden of a rescue of Monte dei Paschi, Italy's third biggest and oldest bank.
Rome had tried to shield institutional investors and ordinary Italians who put their savings into the bank's bonds, while Berlin had wanted them to suffer losses as a condition for allowing state support.
More
There can be few
fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world
of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is
dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to
appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap
AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC?
A quantum computer next?
'Incomprehensible' birth of supercrystal explained
Date:
September 28, 2016
Source:
Utrecht University
Summary:
Two years ago, a research team published an article explaining how they had
created a material with unique and extremely interesting electronic
characteristics. In this 'supercrystal', the electrons move almost with the
speed of photons, and the electric current can be switched on and off. This
makes it ideal for ultra-fast electronics. But at the time, the researchers
were at a loss to explain how this 'supercrystal' obtained its unique
structure. Now they have unraveled the mystery, and it appears to involve a
completely different mechanism for crystal formation.
This is an important insight for research into new materials with unique
electronic characteristics. The results of their research were published online
in Nature Materials.
The 'supercrystal' develops when tiny nanocrystals form a perfectly
ordered surface one layer thick. In this super-matrix, the structure of the
atoms -- A, B, A, B -- precisely follows that of the nanocrystals itself. "But
how such a neatly ordered super-matrix could be born from all of those
nanocrystals was incomprehensible to us," says Prof. Daniël Vanmaekelbergh
from Utrecht University. "Now that we have insight into how the matrix is
formed, we can conduct much more focused research into how we can make the
structures that we would like to have."
Mysterious
To make the superstructure, the nanocrystals are dissolved in an
oleaginous fluid that floats on a layer of coolant. As the oil evaporates, the
nanocrystals appear to form a neat hexagonal structure on the surface of the
water. But according to Vanmaekelbergh, something mysterious occurs: the
nanocrystals rotate simultaneously and systematically into a pseudo-hexagonal
structure. "It's as if they're synchronised swimmers," he explains.
Lego blocks
Only then do they make contact, and the nanocrystals 'click' together
like Lego blocks to form a surface of a single, perfect layer. Until now, this
mechanism has only been observed in metals, which are a completely different
material.
X-ray radiation
It was not easy for the researchers to determine this surprising
mechanism, as nanocrystals are too small to observe with an optical microscope.
So the PhD candidates Jaco Geuchies and Carlo van Overbeek developed an
experiment that followed the formation of the superstructure using X-ray
radiation. With each change in the structure, the X-ray radiation was refracted
in a different way. The researchers could then derive the movement of the
nanocrystals from the changes in refraction.
Semiconductors
The nanocrystals are semiconductors that are ideally suited for
switching electric currents on and off. Forming specific perfect
superstructures from these kinds of nanocrystals can dramatically increase the
speed of the electronic current through the material.
Important step
Graphene offers perhaps the most spectacular current speed of any
material, but graphene is not suitable for use in electronic switches. So the
researchers went looking for a material with a structure similar to that of
graphene, but with atoms or nanocrystals that have better characteristics for
electronic switches. "That is why it is such an important step that we now
understand how these interesting structures are formed," according to
Vanmaekelbergh.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 18308
+28 Up NASDAQ: 5312 +21 Up. SP500: 2168 +32 Up.
No comments:
Post a Comment