Tuesday, 10 February 2026

Iran War Next Weekend? Sooner?

Baltic Dry Index. 1895 -28    Brent Crude 68.86

Spot Gold  5062                      Spot Silver 81.31

US 2 Year Yield 3.48 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 38.667 trillion US GDP 31.141 trillion.

“Finance is the art of passing currency from hand to hand until it finally disappears

Robert Sarnoff

Is the Trump Department of War again using the cover of talks, as they did last June, for a surprise joint US Israeli attack on Iran, possibly as soon as the end of this week?

II don’t know either, but it certainly looks to me that the US War Department has another Venezuela or worse planned.

Time to fill up the car just in case.

U.S. urges ships to stay ‘as far as possible’ from Iran’s waters in Strait of Hormuz after boarding attempts

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 8:39 PM EST

U.S.-flagged ships have been advised to stay “as far as possible” from Iranian waters when navigating the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between Washington and Tehran remain elevated.

In a notice issued Monday, the U.S. Maritime Administration said ship captains should decline permission for Iranian forces to board U.S. vessels.

Boarding attempts, including moves to force commercial vessels into Iranian waters through small boats and helicopters, have occured as recently as Feb. 3, the agency under the Department of Transportation said.

Should Iranian forces board a U.S.-flagged commercial vessel, crews were advised not to “forcibly resist the boarding party,” the notice said. It added that refraining from forcible resistance does not imply consent or agreement to that boarding.

The advisory recommended that ships transiting eastbound in the Strait of Hormuz stay close to the Omani side of the waterway.

The guidance followed a round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran held in Oman on Friday, centered on how to approach discussions over Tehran’s nuclear program. The meeting marked the first talks between the two countries since U.S. bombers struck three Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day war with Iran last June.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian described the talks as “a step forward,” while signaling they would be the opening stage of a longer diplomatic process rather than a path to a quick resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also told state media that the talks were a “good start.”

President Donald Trump said the Oman talks were “very good” and that more sessions were planned, even as he warned Iran that failure to reach a deal would carry “very steep” consequences for Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet Trump in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the U.S.-Iran talks. Israel, a close U.S. ally, has lobbied Washington to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, curb its ballistic missile program and end its support for militant groups in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, has returned to the spotlight this year after Trump warned of possible military action against Tehran.

About 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, according to data from market intelligence Kpler, accounting for nearly a third of global seaborne crude flows.

Any disruption to those flows would ripple through global energy markets. Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait during past confrontations, raising the prospect of higher oil prices.

U.S. urges ships to stay 'as far as possible' from Iran's waters in Strait of Hormuz

At Least 112 USAF C-17 Aircraft Headed To Middle East: 'Desert Storm Levels'

by Tyler Durden  Sunday, Feb 08, 2026 - 05:15 PM

An eye-opening and massive number of C-17 Globemaster military transport and cargo planes have been observed heading to Europe and the Middle East, in what some monitors have forewarned looks like the build-up to major war in Iran.

One regional watcher and pundit commented in response: "112 C-17s are in or on their way to the Middle East. Guys, that’s a lot. Like Desert Storm a lotStay tuned."

This as on Friday the prominent open source account Armchair Admiral and others used public flight tracking data to tally that the huge armada of US Air Force C-17s and counting are en route - a trend since mid-January.

"A total of 112 U.S. Air Force C-17's have now either arrived or are en route to the Middle East with a further 17-18 in-progress flights, a number of Royal Air Force logistics flights from RAF Marham to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, and movement on U.S. Air Force CORONETs," the source said.

C-17s are massive, and can deliver huge amounts of equipment or large numbers of troops in a single go. The US military lists some of the following key capabilities:

  • Payload capacity of over 170,000 pounds
  • Ability to operate on short, austere runways as small as 3,500 feet
  • Intercontinental range, with in-flight refueling extending reach even further
  • Rapid load/unload design to keep missions moving under pressure

More

At Least 112 USAF C-17 Aircraft Headed To Middle East: 'Desert Storm Levels' | ZeroHedge

Trump and Netanyahu to meet for Iran discussions

8 February 2026

The US president and Israel's prime minister will meet on Wednesday in Washington to discuss negotiations with Iran, according to Benjamin Netanyahu's office.

On Friday, Iranian and US officials met in Muscat, Oman, to hold indirect nuclear talks.

The talks came amid a continued American naval build-up near Iran, which Donald Trump has described as an "armada".

The US president has repeatedly threatened to take military action since the Iranian regime launched a bloody crackdown against protesters who took to the streets of cities across the country last month.

Both sides said more talks are expected to be held soon.

More

Trump and Netanyahu to meet for Iran discussions

In ordinary news.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 nears record 58,000 level as Asian stock markets mostly rise

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 6:55 PM EST

Japan’s Nikkei 225 continued its post-election rally and reached new highs on Tuesday, amid gains in the broader Asian markets.

The Japanese market continues to ride the “Takaichi trade” in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the Lower House.

The Nikkei 225 rose 2.77%, within striking distance of the 58,000 mark, while the Topix was up 2.07%, also pushing record highs.

Shares of Softbank Group Corp spiked as much as 11.95% on Tuesday after its subsidiary company upgraded its full-year forecasts for its financial year ending March 31. This follows a 6.3% gain on Monday.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.24%, paring some gains, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell into negative territory and was 1.16% lower.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 0.63%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was unchanged.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.16%, extending gains to a third day.

Overnight in the U.S., tech stocks powered the S&P 500 to back-to-back gains, with the broad-based index rising 0.47%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was marginally up to a record high of 50,135.87, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 nears record 58,000 level as Asian stock markets mostly rise

Gold and silver price swings are powering algo traders and machine-learning funds

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 1:04 AM EST

As gold and silver prices continue to seesaw, one corner of the hedge-fund industry is mining an opportunity from the huge swings in precious metals.

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), also known as trend-following or managed futures funds, are computer-driven investment strategies that trade investment trends across different futures markets, including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Such strategies use a complex mix of statistical models, machine-learning algorithms, factors and other quantitative signals to identify — and bet on — upward and downward moves in markets, removing human emotion and biases from the investment process.

These systematic models pounced on the upward price momentum in precious metals in recent months, helping trend-following quant funds to recoup losses sustained in last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ turmoil.

And despite the sharp reversal in both gold and silver, performance for the sector has held up.

Societe Generale’s SG CTA Index, the main performance benchmark for the CTA sector, rose 5% in January. Meanwhile, the SG Trend Index, a daily performance tracker of the 10 biggest trend-following hedge funds, had advanced 6.9% by Jan. 29. That made January one of the best months for the index since 2000.

Both benchmarks remain up more than 4% year-to-date as of Feb. 4 — suggesting trend-following quant managers are successfully navigating wild swings in gold and silver.

‘Nimble and flexible’

So how are they doing it?

“CTAs are nimble and flexible,” said Andrew Beer, managing member at Dynamic Beta Investments. “The sharp reversal in gold and silver last week will cause many to derisk, but most will still bet on further moves upward,” Beer said. “CTAs were early, contrarian and right about gold and precious metals. Last Friday’s reversal was merely giving back some profits.”

Industry insiders explained how the assortment of signals and models underpinning the algorithms are helping the sector navigate precious metals’ wild ride. While short-term trading models — which have smaller trading windows and chase shorter-lived trends — are designed to enter and exit trades earlier, medium- and longer-term models are often more responsive to larger, more meaningful moves — such as the falling yen, the rise in gold, and the rotation into non-U.S. equities. That helps them avoid sharper hits from sell-offs and boost returns.

Jon Caplis, founder and CEO of hedge fund industry data provider PivotalPath, said medium-term trend followers, which dominate its Managed Futures Index, have generated consistent performance across several drivers, including long bets on precious metals.

“While gold and silver ended the month with a significant selloff, gold still finished the month up 9.3% while silver was up 11.2%,” Caplis told CNBC in an email. “In fact, most strategies have been reducing precious metals positions since September as volatility continued to increase, so benefited significantly on the way up while mitigating some of the losses during the sudden reversals.”

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Gold and silver moves are powering machine-learning trading strategies

In other news.

Yen near 160, a record Nikkei 225, higher yields: What experts expect after Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 2:15 AM EST

A yen nearing 160 to the dollar, record Japanese equities and higher Japanese government bond yields could be on the table after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi romped to a landslide victory in the country’s snap election Sunday.

Takaichi led the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a supermajority in the Lower House, securing 316 seats in the party’s largest election victory since World War Two.

The result gives her the power to override any legislative veto from the Upper House, strengthening her ability to push her agenda through Japan’s legislature.

‘Takaichi Trade’ returns

Analysts said that her victory will lead to a revival of the so-called “Takaichi trade,” which typically involves a weaker yen, rising equities, and higher long-dated Japanese government bond yields. The trend reflects Takaichi’s dovish stance on monetary policy and expectations of expanded fiscal stimulus.

Some early signs of these emerged Monday. The benchmark Nikkei 225 soared past the 57,000 mark to a record high, while the broader Topix rose to an all-time peak of 3,825.67, exceeding Citi analysts’ pre-election expectations.

“The strong LDP win is warming the hearts of investors,” said Frederic Neumann, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC. “Equities, in particular, are celebrating the surprising election result, re-loading the ‘Takaichi-trade.’”
“The hope is that the strong majority will give the LDP more leeway in pursuing growth-friendly policies,” Neumann added.

This is echoed by Adrian Wong, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who said the victory would lead to proactive fiscal measures, such as the two-year consumption tax cut, to increased corporate investment and aggressive corporate reforms.

More

Yen near 160, record Nikkei 225, higher JGB yields: What experts expect after Sanae Takaichi's landslide

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

U.S. Treasury yields move higher as investors await busy week of economic data

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 3:29 AM EST

U.S. Treasury yields were up to begin the week as investors looked ahead to a flurry of economic data, including the delayed January jobs report.

At 2:48 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up over 2 basis points to 4.231%, and the 30-year Treasury yield was 1 basis point higher at 4.874%. The 2-year Treasury note yield rose more than 1 basis point to 3.514%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Investors are expecting a flurry of economic data this week, much of which was delayed due to the partial U.S. government shutdown. This includes the delayed nonfarm payrolls report for January, which was initially scheduled for last Friday, but which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will now release on Wednesday morning.

The report is forecasted to show a gain of 60,000 jobs for the month, after a 50,000 increase in December, per economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.4%.

The January consumer price index reading, also delayed by the shutdown, is due out on Friday morning.

In addition to these reports, investors will await retail sales for December on Tuesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday.

U.S. Treasury yields: investors await busy week of economic data

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Another day, another battery fire.

Fire department urges caution after lithium ion battery starts fire at London school

Sat, 7 February 2026 at 12:42 am GMT

The London Fire Department is warning the public of the dangers of lithium ion batteries after a student's backpack caught fire at Northridge Public School.

Fire crews responded to a call at the northeast London elementary school around midday on Feb. 2, and arrived to find there had been a fire on the second floor.

The cause had been a damaged portable phone charger, which a student had placed unattended in a backpack, according to Platoon Chief Jamie Britton.

"We're trying to put that safety message out there that if you do have a lithium battery, to not charge them in a backpack or leave them charging unattended," Britton said. "We do have instances of this quite often."

Britton said the battery caused a two-foot flame to come off the student's backpack, and the school's vice principal was able to put it out with a fire extinguisher before firefighters arrived.

No one was injured, but students were evacuated until crews confirmed the fire was out and the smoke was contained to the second floor of the building, he said.

"It's a good thing it was quickly noticed by the teacher, and it was a very quick evacuation by the staff and students."

Battery fires difficult to extinguish, says fire department

Lithium ion batteries have become commonplace in households. They're found in many rechargeable items, including phones, laptops, tablets, and portable chargers. They're also used in e-bikes and electric vehicles.

They become dangerous when they get damaged, overcharged or overheated and go into "thermal runaway," Britton said, a self-sustaining chain reaction in which the heat generated by the battery exceeds dissipation, leading to a fire that is difficult to extinguish.

Lithium ion batteries were blamed for an aggressive fire in December at a hobby shop in Norfolk County that was housing e-bikes and other battery-powered equipment. Twenty-five firefighters from four different stations were called to the scene to fight the blaze.

"It's just the simple fact that they do generate so much heat," Britton said. "It's just one of those things that we're going to have to keep a very close eye on while they're being charged."

If a battery has been impacted by a fall or through overcharging, Britton recommends not keeping it inside the home, putting it in a backback or leaving it anywhere unattended.

Even with a properly functioning battery, take care not to leave it charging on soft surfaces, such as a bed, couch or any other flammable surface, he added.

When getting rid of old or damaged batteries, refrain from putting them in the garbage, and instead dispose of them at one of London's four EnviroDepots, or community drop-off containers.

Fire department urges caution after lithium ion battery starts fire at London school - Yahoo News UK

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“It is not true that Congress spends money like a drunken sailor. Drunken sailors spend their own money. Congress spends our money.”

Dr. Art Laffer

Monday, 9 February 2026

Stocks, Precious Metals, Cryptos – Japan To The Rescue?

Baltic Dry Index. 1923 -13    Brent Crude 67.38

Spot Gold  5045                      Spot Silver 81.59

US 2 Year Yield 3.50 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.663 trillion US GDP 31.138 trillion.

A businessman cannot force you to buy his product; if he makes a mistake, he suffers the consequences; if he fails, he takes the loss. If bureaucrat makes a mistake, you suffer the consequences; if he fails, he passes the loss on to you.

Ayn Rand

Did Japan’s voters just rescue stocks and cryptos although probably with little direct effect on commodities? Precious metals are already rebounding due to demand as a hedge against US weaponised dollar debasement.

Japan’s “Margaret Thatcher” just won a landslide election victory, as our brave 21st century world keeps moving to the right.

AFD in Germany and Reform in GB next?

Japan’s Nikkei 225 crosses 57,000 for the first time as Takaichi secures historic mandate

Published Sun, Feb 8 2026 6:50 PM EST

Japanese stocks jumped to a record high Monday, leading gains in the region after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 5.6% to hit 57,337, while the Topix advanced over 3%, also notching a record high.

A decisive win for Takaichi could be the “best outcome” for markets over the medium term, as strategic investments and tax reform bolster equities, said Sree Kochugovindan, senior research economist at Aberdeen Investments.

Japanese stocks have hit several highs over the past few months, driven by the so-called “Takaichi trade” as markets expect the prime minister’s economic policies — seen as growth‑focused continuation of Abenomics — to boost equities, while weakening the yen as she pushes for a looser monetary policy and higher government spending.

The real estate sector was leading Nikkei gains, up over 7%, followed by healthcare and industrials sectors, data from LSEG showed as of 8.11 p.m. ET Sunday.

Japanese internet company CyberAgent Inc was the index’s top gainer, up more than 16%. Semiconductor equipment maker Advantest surged over 12%, followed by Sumitomo Electric Industries which posted gains of more than 11%.

The Japanese yen strengthened to 156.88 against the dollar. Yields on the 10-year Japanese government bonds rose nearly 4 basis points to 2.274%, while yields on 20-year JGBs added about 3 basis points to 3.158%.

Takaichi’s administration has gained stronger momentum to pursue a major shift toward proactive fiscal policy, backed by a clear public mandate, Crédit Agricole CIB echoed in a note following her victory.

U.S. President Donald Trump congratulated Takaichi on her victory in a TruthSocial post.

She is a highly respected and very popular Leader. Sanae’s bold and wise decision to call for an Election paid off big time,” he wrote. “The wonderful people of Japan, who voted with such enthusiasm, will always have my strong support.”

The election follows political upheaval last year, when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House, and a Lower House defeat in 2024, which prompted then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign in September.

Other Asian markets also traded higher, with South Korea’s Kospi jumping 4.15%, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 2.97%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.65% in early trading.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.5%, while the mainland’s CSI 300 climbed 0.9%.

U.S. futures inched higher in early Asia hours.

Last Friday in the U.S., stocks surged as tech names recovered following several days of heavy selling in the sector and bitcoin rebounded following a rout that took the popular cryptocurrency down more than 50% from its high in October last year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1,206.95 points, or 2.47%, closing at 50,115.67. Friday marked the first time the Dow exceeded the 50,000 level. The S&P 500 jumped 1.97% and ended at 6,932.30, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.18% to 23,031.21. With those moves, the S&P 500 climbed back into the green for 2026.

Even with Friday’s pop, the S&P 500 posted a 0.1% decline for the week, while the Nasdaq fell 1.8% on the week. The 30-stock Dow rose 2.5% week to date, benefiting from some rotation into some economically cyclical stocks even as the overall market was weighed down by tech selling.

Japan's Nikkei 225 crosses 57,000 for the first time as Takaichi secures historic mandate

Global week ahead: Tech rotation puts European stocks back in play

Published Sun, Feb 8 2026 1:53 AM EST

When the U.S. sneezes, it seems Europe may not catch its cold in the same way it used to.

The Stoxx 600 is sitting close to record highs after recording its 7th positive week in eight, despite the tech-led devastation around it.

It’s been a different story across the pond. In a recent note, Deutsche Bank has started drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2000, and says the recent sell-off in AI and software-exposed stocks is showing no signs of easing. This week’s declines leave the S&P 500 down almost 30 percent from their October 2025 peaks.

Broader European stocks meanwhile, are looking more resilient.

The spike in volatility comes at a sensitive time for the corporate world, with earnings season in full swing. The big-tech releases from last week did little to calm nerves stateside, while some of Europe’s biggest names are preparing to report this week.

Banking on M&A

CNBC’s Carolin Roth will breakdown UniCredit’s results in Milan on Monday, speaking with the Italian bank’s CEO Andrea Orcel. The lender remains a key M&A player in Europe, with its minority stakes in Commerzbank and Greece’s Alpha Bank returning around 20 percent returns on investment, according to the bank.

In Frankfurt, we will hear from rival Commerzbank’s CEO Bettina Orlopp on Wednesday, who told Squawk Box during the World Economic Forum in Davos in January that a deal with UniCredit is “not sensible” given the German bank’s high valuation.

Shares in financial stocks across Europe had a rollercoaster week, ending the week in the red.

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Global week ahead: Tech rotation puts European stocks back in play

Private credit worries resurface in $3 trillion market as AI pressures software firms

Published Sun, Feb 8 2026 11:41 PM EST

Private credit markets are facing fresh uncertainty as AI-driven tools start to pressure software companies, a major borrower group for private lenders.

The software industry came under renewed pressure last week after artificial intelligence firm Anthropic unveiled new AI tools, sparking a sell-off in software data provider shares.

The AI tools, developed by Anthropic, are designed to perform complex professional tasks that many software companies currently charge for, raising fresh concerns that AI could weaken traditional software business models.

Shares of asset managers with large private credit franchises tumbled this week as investors fretted about how AI could upend borrowers’ business models, pressure cash flows and ultimately lift default risks.

Ares Management fell over 12% last week, while Blue Owl Capital lost over 8%. KKR declined almost 10%. TPG lost about 7%. Apollo Global and BlackRock fell over 1% and 5%, respectively. For comparison, the S&P 500 declined by about 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.8%.

The moves bring to fore a growing unease around private credit market which now has to brace for the impact from AI-driven disruption to the software sector that is heavily exposed to buyouts financed with opaque, illiquid loans, according to market watchers.

“Enterprise software companies have been a favored sector for private credit lenders since 2020,” PitchBook wrote in a report last week following the fallout, adding that many of the largest-ever unitranche (two or more loans combined into one) loans, the favorite structure of the private credit market, have been to software and tech companies.

Software makes up a significant share of loans held by U.S. business development companies, accounting for about 17% of BDC investments by deal count, second only to commercial services, data from PitchBook showed.

That exposure could prove costly if AI adoption accelerates faster than borrowers can adapt. UBS Group has warned that, in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could climb to 13%, significantly higher than the stress projected for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, which UBS estimates could come to around 8% and 4%, respectively.

More

Private credit's software blind spot sparks fresh fears for $3 trillion sector

In other news, more red flags.

The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm as Wall Street Gets Bad News About President Trump's Tariffs. History Says This Will Happen Next.

Sat, February 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM GMT·

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has essentially traded sideways in 2026, but history says the benchmark index could decline sharply in the coming months.

Several recent studies show President Trump's tariffs are siphoning money away from U.S. companies and consumers, and the S&P 500 just flashed a warning last seen during the dot-com crash in October 2000.

Recent studies suggest President Trump's tariffs will slow economic growth

President Trump has repeatedly argued that foreign exporters will pay his tariffs for the privilege of doing business in America. He went further last month in an editorial published by The Wall Street Journal, claiming foreign companies were "paying at least 80% of tariff costs." He even linked a study from the Harvard Business School to validate his claim.

What's the problem? The study Trump linked made no such claim. In fact, the researchers arrived at the opposite conclusion. The report states, "Our results suggest that U.S. consumers paid up to 43% of the tariff burden, with the rest absorbed by U.S. firms."

Those results roughly align with research from other institutions. Goldman Sachs economists report that U.S. companies and consumers collectively paid 84% of tariffs in October 2025. And they estimate consumers alone will bear 67% of the burden by July 2026.

Similarly, the Kiel Institute examined shipments totaling $4 trillion between January 2024 and November 2025, and the researchers concluded, "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden." The other 96% is passed along to U.S. importers and consumers.

Trump's tariffs are effectively a tax on consumption, which means they reduce buying power for consumers and raise input costs for businesses. That's a problem because consumer spending and business investments account for approximately 85% of GDP. By siphoning money away from consumers and businesses, tariffs threaten to slow economic growth.

The stock market sounds an alarm last witnessed during the dot-com crash

The S&P 500 recorded an average cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of 39.9 in January 2026, marking the fourth consecutive monthly reading above 39. Prior to that, the S&P 500 last recorded a monthly CAPE ratio over 39 during the dot-com crash in October 2000. The CAPE ratio is used to determine whether entire stock market indexes are overvalued, and multiples above 39 have historically correlated with dismal future returns.

The table shows the S&P 500's best, worst, and average performance over different time periods following a monthly CAPE reading above 39.

As shown, after recording a monthly CAPE ratio above 39, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 0% during the next six months. But the index has declined by an average of 4% in the next year, and it has declined by an average of 20% in the next two years.

The big picture

The S&P 500 currently trades at an expensive valuation that has historically portended steep losses. Such an outcome is arguably more likely in the current market environment because President Trump's tariffs threaten to slow economic growth.

Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future results. Investors may tolerate higher valuation multiples because artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to drive higher earnings growth in the future. Indeed, S&P 500 companies reported an acceleration in earnings in 2025, and Wall Street expects another acceleration in 2026.

So, investors should not sell their portfolios in anticipation of a market drawdown. Instead, now is a good time to sell any stocks in which you lack conviction. It's also a good time to be more conservative when you put money into the market. Rather than investing every dollar, consider building a cash position in your portfolio.

Above all, focus on creating wealth over the long term rather than navigating volatility in the short term. The S&P 500 has returned 10.2% annually over the last 30 years, and there is no reason to believe the next 30 years will be much different.

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The stock market sounds an alarm as Wall Street gets bad news about President Trump's tariffs. History says this will happen next.

Bankruptcy filings hit 3-year high across U.S., with 1 in 15 cases filed in Texas

Filings in Travis and Bexar counties increased at nearly twice the pace of cases filed across the U.S. as inflation, high rates and tariffs took a toll.

Fri, February 6, 2026 at 4:47 PM GMT

Bankruptcy filings hit a three-year high in 2025 — and 1 of every 15 of those was in a Texas bankruptcy court. Across the state, more than 38,000 individuals and businesses filed for protection from creditors in 2025, up more than 20% from 31,520 a year earlier.

With Texas and the nation facing rising economic pressures tied to nagging inflation, the impact of tariffs and higher lending rates, bankruptcy filings across the U.S. jumped 11% last year to 574,315 from 517,308 in 2024, according to new data from the Federal Courts of the United States.

The pace of increase in Texas — and in Travis and Bexar counties — was roughly twice that. In Travis County, 905 people and businesses filed bankruptcy last year, up 24% from 728 cases in 2024. In Bexar County, courts saw 2,300 filings last year, up about 18% from 1,948 in 2024.

The annual increase was expected, as the rate of filings was seen rising in quarterly data releases through the year. But it comes after bankruptcy filings had fallen from a 2010 high of 1.6 million to a June 2022 low of 380,634. The rise has mainly corresponded with the aggressive increase in interest rates, which is pushing up the cost of borrowing and eating up cash flow of businesses and people with floating rates.

Though it was a three-year high, the 2025 total is still far below historical highs, according to courts data.

Through 2025, nearly 25,000 businesses filed for some form of bankruptcy protection, a 7.1% increase from the year before. 

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Bankruptcy filings hit 3-year high across U.S., with 1 in 15 cases filed in Texas

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Approx. 3 minutes.

U.S. Layoff Tsunami: 108K Jobs Axed in January, Worst Since '09 Crash | GRAVITAS

Bing Videos

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

A clever quantum trick brings practical quantum computers closer

Date:  February 6, 2026

Source:  ETH Zurich

Summary:  Quantum computers struggle because their qubits are incredibly easy to disrupt, especially during calculations. A new experiment shows how to perform quantum operations while continuously fixing errors, rather than pausing protection to compute. The team used a method called lattice surgery to split a protected qubit into two entangled ones without losing control. This breakthrough moves quantum machines closer to scaling up into something truly powerful.

Quantum computers have the potential to transform fields ranging from materials science to cryptography, but today they remain extremely difficult to build and operate. One of the biggest challenges comes from decoherence, a process that introduces errors into quantum systems. These errors usually take the form of bit flips or phase flips. A bit flip occurs when a qubit unexpectedly switches between '0' and '1'. A phase flip happens when the phase of a quantum superposition suddenly reverses, changing from positive to negative.

Because these changes can happen at random, even a single error can disrupt a calculation. Preventing that disruption is one of the central problems facing quantum engineers.

Protecting Information With Logical Qubits

To reduce these errors, researchers combine many physical qubits into a single logical qubit and apply continuous error correction. This strategy helps preserve quantum information over time, making storage relatively stable. But storing information is only part of the task. To run a quantum algorithm, qubits must be actively manipulated using quantum gates, which are the basic operations that power quantum computation.

Applying those operations without introducing new errors has proven far more difficult than simply keeping qubits stable at rest.

A New Way to Compute While Fixing Errors

A team led by D-PHYS Professor Andreas Wallraff has now demonstrated a method that tackles this problem directly. Working with researchers from the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) and theorists led by Professor Markus Müller at RWTH Aachen University and Forschungszentrum Jülich, the group showed how to perform quantum operations between superconducting logical qubits while correcting errors at the same time. Their findings were recently published in Nature Physics.

The work marks an important advance toward fault tolerant quantum computing, where calculations can proceed without being derailed by constant errors.

More

A clever quantum trick brings practical quantum computers closer | ScienceDaily

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism - by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide.

Ayn Rand

Saturday, 7 February 2026

Special Update 07/02/2026 Rebound Friday. Stocks Trade Like Commodities.

Baltic Dry Index. 1923 -13          Brent Crude 68.12

Spot Gold 4989                              Spot Silver 77.53

U S 2 Year Yield 3.50 +0.03 

US Federal Debt. 38.705 trillion US GDP 31.132 trillion

“When you are a Chancellor of Very Little Brain, and you Think of Things, you find sometimes that a Thing which seemed very Thingish inside you is quite different when it gets out into the open and has other people looking at it.

UK Chancellor Reeves, with apologies to A.A. Milne & Winnie-the-Pooh.

Yesterday we wroteAs the winter Olympics open in Italy today, will it be Black Friday in stocks, crypto and silver? Which of the three will win the gold for the biggest decline or rebound?

As it turned out on rebound Friday, stocks won gold, crypto won silver, and silver won, well bronze,  all three for strong rebounds.

The US stock casinos now trade like super volatile commodity markets.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done

John Maynard Keynes

Dow surges 1,200 points for first close above 50,000 in sharp rebound from tech rout: Live updates

Updated Fri, Feb 6 2026 5:43 PM EST

Stocks surged on Friday as technology stocks recovered following several days of heavy selling in the sector and bitcoin rebounded following a rout that took the popular cryptocurrency down more than 50% at one point.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1,206.95 points, or 2.47%, closing at 50,115.67. Friday marked the first time the Dow exceeded the 50,000 level. The S&P 500 jumped 1.97% and ended at 6,932.30, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.18% to 23,031.21. With those moves, the S&P 500 climbed back into the green for 2026.

Even with Friday’s pop, the S&P 500 posted a 0.1% decline for the week, while the Nasdaq fell 1.8% on the week. The 30-stock Dow rose 2.5% week to date, benefiting from some rotation into some economically cyclical stocks even as the overall market was weighed down by tech selling.

Nvidia and Broadcom were two of the key winners Friday, with the former increasing by nearly 8% and the latter growing 7% following big declines earlier in the week. Other stocks such as Oracle and Palantir Technologies also bounced back as investors reconsidered some of the names at cheaper levels. Oracle and Palantir each rose 4%. Some key software stocks like ServiceNow — which has been the epicenter of the tech sell-off because of an artificial intelligence disruption fear of software — remained weak on Friday, however.

“We’re in a gold rush right now with AI,” said Falcon Wealth Planning founder Gabriel Shahin.

“You have the investment that Google is making, Nvidia is making, that Meta is making, that Amazon is making. There is money that will be deployed,” he also said. “It’s just the carousel [of money movement] sometimes scares people.”

Shahin believes the market is in the midst of a “great recalibration,” where investors are going to move further out of growth stocks and into value. Over the coming months, his bet is on large-cap value names. That played out Friday, with investors buying up shares in areas such as industrials and financials. In those sectors, Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs were standouts, supporting the Dow’s outperformance with their rise of 7% and 4%, respectively. Small-cap stocks also saw a boost: The Russell 2000 index rallied 3.6%.

Bitcoin recouped some losses Friday, adding 10% and touching a session high of $71,458.01 after briefly sinking below $61,000 overnight to its lowest level since October 2024 — more than 52% off from its record high of $126,000 hit in early October 2025. Friday’s move higher helped ease some of the risk-off concerns among investors that recently plagued the broader market. The cryptocurrency has lost 16% this week, however.

The week was bleak heading into Friday, with the S&P 500 on pace for its worst week since last October and the Nasdaq Composite on track for its worst week since the tariff-related market plunge of last April. Friday’s pop pared those declines significantly.

Amazon was an outlier Friday, as shares sank more than 5% after the e-commerce giant posted earnings per share slightly under analyst expectations and told investors to expect $200 billion in capital expenditures this year.

Stock market news for Feb. 6, 2026

Gold bounces back on softer dollar, U.S.-Iran concerns; silver rebounds

Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 11:30 PM EST Updated Fri, Feb 6 2026 4:02 PM EST

Gold rebounded on Friday and was set for a weekly gain, helped by bargain hunting, a slightly weaker dollar and lingering concerns over U.S.-Iran talks in Oman, while silver recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.

Spot gold rose 3.9% to $4,954.92 per ounce by 2:18 p.m. ET (1918 GMT), recouping losses during a volatile Asia session following Thursday’s 3.9% decline. The yellow metal was headed for a weekly gain of about 2%.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.8% higher at $4,979.80 per ounce.

CME Group had flagged a delay in publishing metals settlement, earlier in the day.

The U.S. dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab fell 0.2%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers.

“The gold market is seeing perceived bargain hunting from bullish traders,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Iran’s top diplomat on Friday said that nuclear talks with the U.S. mediated by Oman were off to a “good start” and set to continue. The remarks could help allay concerns that failure to reach a deal might nudge the Middle East closer to war.

Wyckoff said gold’s rebound lacks momentum and the metal is unlikely to break records without a major geopolitical trigger.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, does well in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, spot silver rose 8.6% to $77.33 an ounce after dipping below $65 earlier in the session, but was still headed for a weekly drop, down over 8.7%, following steep losses last week as well.

“What we’re seeing in silver is huge speculation on the long side,” said Wyckoff, adding that after years in a boom cycle, gold and silver now appear to be entering a typical commodity bust phase.

CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures for a third time in two weeks on Thursday to curb risks from heightened market volatility.

Spot platinum added 5.4% to $2,093.50 per ounce, while palladium rose 6.2% to $1,717.05.

Gold bounces back on softer dollar, U.S.-Iran concerns; silver rebounds

Tech AI spending may approach $700 billion this year, but the blow to cash raises red flags

Published Fri, Feb 6 2026 4:44 PM EST Updated Fri, Feb 6 2026 5:52 PM EST

AlphabetMicrosoftMeta and Amazon are expected to spend nearly $700 billion combined this year to fuel their AI build-outs.

For investors who love cash above all else, some warning signs may be flashing.

With the heart of tech earnings season wrapping up this week, Wall Street has a clearer picture of how the artificial intelligence race is poised to accelerate in 2026. The four hyperscalers are now projected to increase capital expenditures by more than 60% from the historic levels reached in 2025, as they load up on high-priced chips, build new mammoth facilities and buy the networking technology to connect it all.

Getting to those kinds of numbers is going to require sacrifice in the form of free cash flow. Last year, the four biggest U.S. internet companies generated a combined $200 billion in free cash flow, down from $237 billion in 2024.

The more dramatic drop appears to be ahead, as companies invest heavily up front, promising future returns on investment. That means margin pressures, less cash generation in the near term and the potential need to further tap the equity and debt markets. Alphabet held a $25 billion bond sale in November, and its long-term debt quadrupled in 2025 to $46.5 billion.

Amazon, which on Thursday said it expects to spend $200 billion this year, is now looking at negative free cash flow of almost $17 billion in 2026, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, while Bank of America analysts see a deficit of $28 billion. In a filing with the SEC on Friday, Amazon let investors know that it may seek to raise equity and debt as its build-out continues.

Despite beating on revenue for the quarter, Amazon saw its stock sink almost 6% on Friday, bringing its drop for the year to 9%. Microsoft is down 17%, the most in the group, while Alphabet and Meta are up slightly.

More

Tech AI spending approaches $700 billion in 2026, cash taking big hit

AI fears pummel software stocks: Is it ‘illogical’ panic or a SaaS apocalypse?

Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 11:20 PM EST

The software sector faced renewed market concerns this week after artificial intelligence company Anthropic released new AI tools, triggering a sell-off in software-as-a-service and data provider stocks. 

Anthropic’s new AI tools, built for its Claude “Cowork” AI agent, are designed to handle complex professional workflows that many software and data providers sell as core products.

The tools and other similar AI agents target functions ranging from legal and technology research, customer relationship management and analytics. That has raised concerns that AI could undercut traditional software business models.

The S&P 500 Software & Services Index, which has 140 constituents, fell over 4% on Thursday, extending its losing streak to eight sessions. The index is down about 20% so far this year.

Shares of Thomson ReutersSalesforce and LegalZoom were among the hardest hit in U.S. trading this week, with the sell-off spreading to Asian IT firms Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys.

Despite the market jitters, analysts and tech executives remain divided on the long-term impact of these AI tools on these industries.

‘Illogical’ panic?

Among tech leaders downplaying market concerns that AI will replace enterprise software is Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

“There’s this notion that the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI,” he said at an event on Wednesday. “It is the most illogical thing in the world.”

The influential tech leader instead argued that AI will use and enhance existing software tools rather than completely reinventing them.

Rene Haas, CEO of British chip designer Arm Holdings, echoed that sentiment this week, arguing during an earnings call that enterprise AI deployment is still in its early days and not yet massively transformative.

Haas described recent market fears as “micro-hysteria” in comments to the Financial Times.  

Still, concerns about the software sector predate the latest sell-offs. Hedge funds have already shorted about $24 billion in software stocks this year as of Wednesday. Short sellers borrow shares, sell them and aim to buy them back later at a lower price for a profit.

Meanwhile, Anthropic on Thursday launched what it called an improved AI model, ‌coming just days after its latest Claude tools spooked investors.

Mixed outlook 

While many tech analysts have increasingly warned that AI is going “to eat” software over the long term, views on that risk and the latest sell-off in software stocks remain mixed.

In a research note on Wednesday, Wedbush Securities echoed Jensen Huang’s comments, saying that while AI is a headwind for software providers, the sell-off reflected an “Armageddon scenario for the sector that is far from reality.” 

“Enterprises won’t completely overhaul tens of billions of dollars of prior software infrastructure investments to migrate over to Anthropic, OpenAI, and others,” the note said. 

Large enterprises, Wedbush Securities said, took decades to accumulate trillions of data points now ingrained in their software infrastructure.

Other analysts see more lasting pressure.

More

AI fears pummel software stocks: Is it 'illogical' panic or a SaaS apocalypse?

In other news, Japan to the rescue?

Japan’s Takaichi eyes decisive mandate as polls point to snap election landslide

Published Fri, Feb 6 2026 1:30 AM EST

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is poised to lead her ruling coalition to a landslide victory in this weekend’s snap election, a Nikkei poll has shown.

The poll, conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, showed that the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, were likely to secure more than 300 of the 465 seats in the Lower House.

The findings echo an earlier poll by the Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun, which also projected that the ruling bloc would gain more than 300 seats.

The Central Reform Alliance — an alliance of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito — is forecast to have its seat count roughly halved from the current 167 seats, according to the Nikkei poll.

Separate polling by Kyodo News suggests the LDP could secure a single-party majority of more than 233 seats on its own.

According to Nikkei, the LDP now has its sights on surpassing 261 seats, a threshold that would allow it to control all parliamentary committees and chair positions.

A two-thirds majority in the Lower House would also give the ruling party the power to override an Upper House veto when it comes to passing legislation.

The election follows political upheaval last year, when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House, and a Lower House defeat in 2024, which prompted then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign in September.

The poll also comes as U.S. President Donald Trump publicly expressed support for the ruling coalition, announcing in a Truth Social post that he planned to meet Takaichi on March 19.

Trump added, “it is my Honor to give a Complete and Total Endorsement of her, and what her highly respected Coalition is representing. SHE WILL NOT LET THE PEOPLE OF JAPAN DOWN!”

Takaichi had staked her political future on this election, vowing to resign if the ruling coalition fails to secure a majority.

With her high personal approval ratings, the fiercely conservative prime minister is looking to convert that popularity into votes for the LDP and her coalition.

Kristi Govella, Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told CNBC that a clear victory would reflect Takaichi’s personal popularity, instead of any improvements in economic conditions in Japan.

“Little else has changed since July when the LDP was drubbed at the polls,” Govella added.

Japan’s Takaichi eyes decisive mandate as polls point to snap election landslide

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Top Bank of England economist in inflation warning

6 February 2026

The Bank of England's chief economist yesterday delivered a blow to rate cut hopes.

Huw Pill warned people not to draw too much comfort from the fall in inflation.

The Bank said this week it expects inflation to drop to its 2 per cent target by April – described as 'good news' by governor Andrew Bailey.

It prompted markets to ramp up bets that interest rates will be cut this spring.

But speaking to businesses yesterday, Pill said 'there is a risk that we draw too much comfort' from the expected fall in inflation, which will largely be driven by one-off factors such as measures announced in the Budget to bring down energy bills.

The Bank is split over interest rates and voted by a five to four majority on Thursday to leave them at 3.75 per cent –with the minority voting for a cut.

Top Bank of England economist in inflation warning

Next, when money was money, before America went bust and Nixon started the Great Nixonian Error of fiat Money, communist money. Approx. 20 minutes. Spot the confusion over Suez 1956 with the 1955 year.

What £1 Bought in 1955 Britain Will BLOW YOUR MIND (26 Loaves of Bread?!)

What £1 Bought in 1955 Britain Will BLOW YOUR MIND (26 Loaves of Bread?!) - YouTube

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

New zinc–air battery offers power density of 310 mW, stable performance for 1,100 hours

6 February 2026

Researchers in China have developed new zinc–air batteries that maintain stable charge–discharge operation for over 1,100 hours.

Developed by researchers from Donghua University and collaborating institutions, the flexible battery prototypes further demonstrate strong mechanical robustness, retaining performance under repeated bending.

Researchers introduced a p–n heterojunction catalyst that combines graphitic carbon nitride with a carbon nanofiber network hosting dual cobalt active sites.

Advancing zinc–air batteries toward real-world applications

The research team pointed out that under light irradiation, the catalyst significantly accelerates oxygen reduction and evolution reactions, leading to higher power density, improved energy efficiency, and unprecedented cycling stability in both liquid and flexible zinc–air battery configurations.

The study offers a versatile strategy for advancing zinc–air batteries toward real-world applications, including grid-scale energy storage, wearable electronics, and solar-assisted power systems. By leveraging light to enhance oxygen electrochemistry, the approach reduces energy losses and extends device lifetime without relying on precious metals.

Zinc–air batteries offer high theoretical energy density

Researchers have also highlighted that zinc–air batteries offer high theoretical energy density, intrinsic safety, and abundant raw materials, making them attractive for large-scale energy storage and flexible electronics. However, their real-world deployment remains constrained by slow oxygen electrochemistry at the air electrode, which leads to high overpotentials, limited power density, and rapid performance degradation.

Published in eScience, the research’s core innovation lies in the rational integration of photoactivity and electrocatalysis within a single air-electrode architecture. The catalyst consists of graphitic carbon nitride nanosheets coupled to a self-supporting carbon nanofiber framework embedded with two complementary cobalt active sites: cobalt nanoparticles encapsulated in carbon nanotubes and atomically dispersed Co–N₄ moieties. This design forms a type-II p–n heterojunction that promotes directional charge transfer when exposed to light, according to the study.

Upon illumination, photogenerated electrons migrate toward the conductive carbon framework to drive the oxygen reduction reaction, while holes facilitate the oxygen evolution reaction on adjacent sites. This spatial separation suppresses charge recombination and lowers reaction energy barriers. Electrochemical measurements reveal a remarkably small oxygen reaction overpotential gap of 0.684 V under light, outperforming many state-of-the-art bifunctional catalysts.

When assembled into practical zinc–air batteries, the photo-enhanced system achieves a peak power density of 310 mW cm⁻² and maintains stable charge–discharge operation for over 1,100 hours.

In the study, researchers also highlighted that light-enhanced flexible ZABs also can reach a peak power density of 96 mW cm−2 and tolerate a wide range of bending angles (0°–180°–0°) during harsh operation. This work offers a new platform for designing efficient photo-electrocatalysts and advancing next-generation solar–electrochemical energy conversion systems.

Beyond zinc–air batteries, the design principles demonstrated here could be applied to other metal–air batteries and photo-assisted electrochemical systems. More broadly, this work highlights a promising pathway for integrating solar energy directly into electrochemical energy storage, potentially bridging the gap between renewable energy harvesting and efficient energy utilization, according to researchers.

New zinc–air battery offers power density of 310 mW, stable performance for 1,100 hours

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion.  Sadly, another long forgotten composer. Approx. 8 minutes.

Niccolò Jommelli - Sinfonia in G major

Niccolò Jommelli - Sinfonia in G major - YouTube

Next, more fun with computers. Approx. 8 minutes.

The Story of Dennis Ritchie

The Story of Dennis Ritchie - YouTube

Finally, some of England’s many castles. Approx. 20 minutes.  My apologies for all the hilarious mispronunciations.  Next week, the castles of Ireland. After that Wales.

16 Castles in England To Visit in 2025 | Beautiful Castles in Europe | England Travel Video

16 Castles in England To Visit in 2025 | Beautiful Castles in Europe | England Travel Video

“I wonder what von der Leyen is doing," thought Starmer.
"I wish I were there to be doing it, too.”

With apologies to A.A. Milne & Winnie-the-Pooh.