Baltic Dry Index. 958 -24
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar.
Let the games begin. No not the London Olympic
Games, hoped in jealous Germany to be the Fiasco Games, believed by cultist
Mitt Romney to be the Unworthy Games, the games we’re talking about are the
ECB-French-German Games attempting to square the circle and “save the euro.”
John Fitzgerald Draghi yesterday, in London, with nothing to do with the other
games, promised “to do whatever it takes” to save the euro. “Believe me, it
will be enough.” And with that, he triggered a short covering rally of less
than biblical proportions, as traders headed for the exit in preparation of
summer vacations and to watch the other games in London.
As games go, the new ECB-continental games should
be entertaining for a day or two. The ECB will now put its money where JFD’s
mouth is, and massively buy up Spanish sovereign debt, allowing Spain to bail
out its banks, regions, real estate companies, and long suffering unemployed
youth, or the ECB’s impotence will be demonstrated to all in the next couple of
weeks. Mr Draghi, it seems, is prepared to fight for the “V” and “Y” euro, to
the last German “X” note. With most of Germany and Europe’s politicians already
on holiday, I wonder if JFD cleared the fighting talk with EU paymaster Merkel
in advance. Unlike the London Olympic Games, these ECB Games seem all too
likely to end in comedy or tragedy.
Before a man speaks it is always safe to assume that he is a fool. After he speaks, it is seldom necessary to assume it.
H. L. Mencken.
Sceptics abound as Mario Draghi's ECB bond 'bluff' electrifies global markets
The European Central Bank has opened the door to emergency support for the Spanish and Italian bond markets, setting off a blistering rally on bourses across the world.
Mario Draghi, the ECB president, vowed to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro within limits of its mandate. "Believe me, it will be enough," he said in London.Picking codewords instantly understood by traders, Mr Draghi said the violent spike in bond yields in recent days was hampering "the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels" - the exact expression used to jusfify each of the ECB's previous market interventions.
Yields on Spanish two-year debt plunged 72 basis points to 5.47pc in barely an hour, with comparable moves on Italian debt - easing the pressure before a string of debt auctions in Rome over coming days. The MIB index of stocks in Milan surged by 5.6pc. Madrid's IBEX rose 6pc, the biggest jump in two years, led by an explosive rise in bank shares.
Mr Draghi's comments came as Spain claimed backing from France and Germany for activation of the eurozone's rescue fund (EFSF) to buy Spanish bonds, though this would require calling the Bundestag's finance committee back from holiday for a vote. Action by the EFSF would provide "political cover" for the ECB to join the fray in a two-pronged attack.
"We're firing on all cylinders: that is what has ignited the markets," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at Morgan Stanley.
-----The euphoria is unlikely to last long unless the ECB comes through with concrete action after its pre-holiday meeting next week. Angel Gurria, head of the OECD, honed in on Mr Draghi's caveat, saying the legal constraints are the nub of problem. The ECB must "explore the flexibility of its mandate", he said.
Others
were blunter. Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities said Mr Draghi's words were
"cheerleading bluster", while Gary Jenkins from Swordfish called them
"a bluff to get through the summer".
----Mr Jenkins warned that the purchases of Spanish and Italian bonds risk setting off further capital flight unless the ECB makes it "contractually clear" that it does not have senior status. "Investors will just try to get out," he warned.
Critics
say the ECB's pin-prick purchases of Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish and
Italian bonds have fallen between two stools: enough to create subordination
fears, without being enough to eliminate the risk of sovereign default.
July 26, 2012, 4:21 p.m. ET
Noyer Remarks Suggest ECB Is Ready to Act
PARIS—European
Central Bank policy maker Christian Noyer said the ECB is "active"
and "vigilant" to ensure its lowered interest rates feed through the
troubled euro-zone economies, becoming the second central bank official to
suggest Thursday that the ECB was ready to help drive down sovereign-bond yields.
"It
is very clear that we will do everything so that the transmission of our
monetary policy takes place in the best possible conditions for our
economies," Mr. Noyer, who is also Bank of France governor, told The Wall
Street Journal. "We have done it in the past and we are continuing to work
at it."
Mr.
Noyer's comments came hours after ECB President Mario Draghi said the central
bank was concerned that the high interest rates paid by some euro-zone
countries on their government bonds were becoming an obstacle for the ECB's
record-low interest rates reaching the wider economy.
The
central bankers' comments, which sparked a rally in global markets, come at a
time of extreme anxiety over whether euro-zone governments can succeed in
preventing Southern European countries from being engulfed by the debt crisis.
Greece is struggling to stay on track with the conditions attached to its
bailout program; Italy is faced with punishing borrowing costs; and Spain is
battling to repair its banking sector without further damaging its public
finances.
Many
economists say only the ECB has the firepower needed to restore calm in the
markets. The central bank, however, has resisted calls to intervene, saying its
role is to conduct monetary policy, not bail out governments that fail to get
their finances in order.
More
Greeks deliver fresh austerity measures
The Greek government has presented a new €11.5bn (£9bn) austerity package to its lenders as doubts grow over the country’s future in the eurozone.
Ahead of
talks between Athens and the European Union, European Central Bank and
International Monetary Fund “troika”, Citibank warned it expected Greece to
leave the single currency within nine months.
“We now
believe the probability that Greece will leave [the euro] in the next 12 to 18
months is about 90pc and the most likely date is in the next two to three
quarters,” said Willem Buiter, Citibank’s chief economist.
New ECB
data showed that deposits at Greek banks hit their lowest level in six years
last month as investors withdrew funds on fears the country will exit the
eurozone.
The
troika negotiations will continue into September and will determine if Greece
gets the next €31.5bn instalment of bail-out loans, without which it will be
forced to default.
The
austerity package, expected to come from pension, healthcare and benefit cuts,
has been structured by the Greek government to help it negotiate for more time
to repay the rescue package in order to cope with a deep recession.
"The swimming and diving were held in part of
the old moat ... it was the clammiest, darkest place and the water was frigid.
"
Alice Landon, American Diver, on facilities at the
Antwerp Games of 1920
At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 40.50
Moz, Eligible 99.73 Moz, Total 140.23 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent,
the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, the
thoughts of Chairman Krugman. We’re back to deficits don’t matter again. Print
Ben, print. But if printing is so good, why don’t we just end poverty once and
for all, by printing up a million for all the poor? With only 300 million
Americans who would all now describe themselves as poor, it’s only 300 billion
dollars after all, far less than the many hundreds of billions given to the
banksters. Make the 99% join the 1%. Of course, we all know it’s not that
simple since no new goods or wealth is created. But the Fed would get US
inflation to pick up, supposedly one of the key anti-deflation goals.
"Finishing second in the Olympics
gets you silver. Finishing second in politics gets you oblivion."
Money for Nothing
By PAUL KRUGMAN Published: July 26, 2012
For years, allegedly serious people have been issuing dire warnings about the consequences of large budget deficits — deficits that are overwhelmingly the result of our ongoing economic crisis. In May 2009, Niall Ferguson of Harvard declared that the “tidal wave of debt issuance” would cause U.S. interest rates to soar. In March 2011, Erskine Bowles, the co-chairman of President Obama’s ill-fated deficit commission, warned that unless action was taken on the deficit soon, “the markets will devastate us,” probably within two years. And so on.
Well, I
guess Mr. Bowles has a few months left. But a funny thing happened on the way
to the predicted fiscal crisis: instead of soaring, U.S. borrowing costs have
fallen to their lowest level in the nation’s history. And it’s not just
America. At this point, every advanced country that borrows in its own currency
is able to borrow very cheaply.
The
failure of deficits to produce the predicted rise in interest rates is telling
us something important about the nature of our economic troubles (and the
wisdom, or lack thereof, of the self-appointed guardians of our fiscal virtue).
---- So investors are, in a sense, offering governments free money for the next 10 years; in fact, they’re willing to pay governments a modest fee for keeping their wealth safe.
Now,
those with a vested interest in the fiscal crisis story have made various
attempts to explain away the failure of that crisis to materialize. One
favorite is the claim that the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates
artificially low by buying government bonds. But that theory was put to the
test last summer when the Fed temporarily suspended bond purchases. Many people
— including Bill Gross of the giant bond fund Pimco — predicted a rate spike.
Nothing happened.
Oh, and
pay no attention to the warnings that any day now we’ll turn into Greece,
Greece I tell you. Countries like Greece, and for that matter Spain, are
suffering from their ill-advised decision to give up their own currencies for
the euro, which has left them vulnerable in a way that America just isn’t.
So what
is going on? The main answer is that this is what happens when you have a
“deleveraging shock,” in which everyone is trying to pay down debt at the same
time. Household borrowing has plunged; businesses are sitting on cash because
there’s no reason to expand capacity when the sales aren’t there; and the
result is that investors are all dressed up with nowhere to go, or rather no
place to put their money. So they’re buying government debt, even at very low
returns, for lack of alternatives. Moreover, by making money available so
cheaply, they are in effect begging governments to issue more debt.
And
governments should be granting their wish, not obsessing over short-term
deficits.
Obligatory
caveat: yes, we have a long-run budget problem, and we should be taking steps
to address that problem, mainly by reining in health care costs. But it’s
simply crazy to be laying off schoolteachers and canceling infrastructure
projects at a time when investors are offering zero- or negative-interest
financing.
More
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/opinion/money-for-nothing.html?_r=1&hp
Another weekend, and the Games begin. For the next 3 weeks a media Games frenzy takes over, as an austerity wracked Europe ties to forget the grinding reality of daily life. We wish all the competitors well, and hope all attending an watching have a wonderful time. Sadly after all of the madness ends next month, we will still have Europe’s never ending crisis to face, no matter whether the ECB games end in tragedy or comedy. For me, three weeks reduced to watching repeats of Ice Road Truckers, Dog the Bounty Hunter, Man V Food, Murder She Wrote, Minder, Last of the Summer Wine, and oxymoron Master Chef Australia. Have a great weekend everyone.
"All I've done is run fast. I don't see why
people should make much fuss about that."
Fanny Blankers-Koen (Dutch sprinter who won four
gold medals at the 1948 Summer Olympics)
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished June:
DJIA: +63 Down. NASDAQ: +71 Down. SP500: +41 Down. All
three indicators remain down but downward momentum seems stalled.
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