US Government Shutdown Day 3. Big Pharma’s Profits. US Autos Red Signal.

Baltic Dry Index. 1909 -71             Brent Crude 64.50

Spot Gold 3845                  US 2 Year Yield 3.55 unch.

US Federal Debt. 37.557 trillion

US GDP 30.305 trillion.

Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt.

Herbert Hoover

In the global stock casinos, more AI mania. More massive and growing disconnect from the reality of the US, UK, EU and Chinese economies.

That the great AI bubble will burst, generating unprecedented losses is a given, we just don’t know when or why, but that great reset just might bring down the increasingly weaponised dollar reserve standard.

Could that be increasingly behind the Great Gold Surge of 2025?

Today’s good news, ahead of the coming OPEC+ meeting crude oil prices are falling in anticipation of production increase.

Stock futures are little changed as AI trade drives market to fresh highs, shutdown grinds on: Live updates

Updated Fri, Oct 3 2025 7:51 PM EDT

Stock futures were mostly unchanged after the market recorded new highs on Thursday, driven by strength in the artificial intelligence trade that appeared to overpower concerns about the 2-day-old U.S. government shutdown.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1 point. S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were slightly positive, but trading near the flatline.

Each of the three major U.S. indexes climbed to record levels on Thursday. The S&P 500 inched up 0.06%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 78 points, or nearly 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.4%, powered by a 0.9% gain in Nvidia that propelled the chipmaker to an all-time high. Other chipmakers also gained ground, with Intel and AMD each rising more than 3%.

The government shutdown, which will continue for a third day on Friday, has exacerbated investors’ underlying concerns this year about macroeconomic and policy headwinds, inflation risks and a slowing labor market. Investors are waiting to see how long the shutdown will persist to gauge the seriousness of its economic repercussions. To be sure, shutdowns have not been market-moving events in the past.

″[Thursday’s] market moves suggest that the history of govt shutdowns still holds sway,” Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a note. “These events have modest negative economic impacts as they occur, but the eventual reopening of the federal bureaucracy erases those nicks to the economy.”

“We do not know how long the shutdown will last, but our guidance remains to look through the event to what we expect will be the main drivers of the economy and investment returns through the next 12-15 months, namely, a gradual reduction in tariff uncertainty, large tax benefits to both corporations and individuals (especially early in 2026), deregulation, and lower borrowing costs as the Fed cuts interest rates,” Christopher added.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the current lapse in government funding could lead to “a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working America.”

President Donald Trump has threatened massive layoffs, which have stoked ongoing concerns about the jobs market. On Thursday, he said the Democrats have given him an “unprecedented opportunity” to cut federal agencies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates 750,000 federal workers will be furloughed each day.

The shutdown also has led to an economic data blackout. The Labor Department’s pause on virtually all activity has blocked the Friday release of the September nonfarm payrolls report, lessening the amount of economic data the Federal Reserve can factor into its interest rate decision at its October meeting. However, it also removes a factor that could lend pressure to stocks.

The shutdown began after Congress failed Tuesday to reach an agreement on government funding. Top Democrats have stayed firm on their demands to to pass a spending bill that would extend health care tax credits for millions of Americans, leading to retaliation from Trump and top Republicans.

Despite the rancor, stocks are tracking for a winning week. The S&P 500 is up nearly 1.1% week to date, while the 30-stock Dow has added 0.6% and the Nasdaq has climbed 1.6%.

Stock market today: Live updates

Gold to glitter past $4,000 after year of political jitters

Thursday 02 October 2025 2:02 pm

In a year defined by geopolitical turmoil, gold has not stopped glittering.

The yellow metal started the year near $2669 and has since soared to $3900 – a rise of over 45 per cent.

The asset now looks set to cross the $4,000 landmark for the first time with the latest rally triggered by the US government shutdown.

The precious metal is considered a safe haven asset for investors as its value is insulated from political instability. 

The asset is not easily devalued as currency is if the government chooses to print more and it is not tied to performance of a specific company.

Instead, gold prices often move inversely to stocks and other financial assets.

“Gold’s ascent reflects geopolitics and fragmentation of the global financial system, particularly as it seems trust in the almighty greenback and Treasuries is being fundamentally questioned,” said Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo. 

The dollar has had a tumultuous year – falling to historic lows in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive.

As the US government went into a shutdown after Trump failed to secure the votes for a federal funding package earlier this week, the dollar took a hit. The DXY index – which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies – fell 0.14 per cent to 97.59 on Thursday morning.

The downturn helped fuel gold’s rally to $3,800 and days later $3,900.

Gold’s September run

In the third quarter alone, gold has risen 15 per cent.

Goldman Sachs Research analyst Linda Thomas said this fell in line with the central bank’s purchasing plan.

Central banks have purchased 64 tonnes of gold per month this year – below forecasts of 80 tonnes.

“This is consistent with the seasonal pattern,” Thomas said. 

“Central bank purchases tend to slow in the summer and re-accelerate from September.”

But analysts are warning the yellow metal may be due for some pullback even after the gleaming performance.

“This is not to suggest that gold can’t go higher, just that it may need a pullback or period of consolidation first,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex, said. 

“Despite this, there’s a growing feeling of FOMO amongst investors, even as the retail market has yet to get involved in the way it has done during previous bull runs.”

Razaqzada added the factors benefitting gold were “likely to persist” into the final quarter of the year.

Gold bounces on Fed cuts

Another factor driving the yellow metal’s rally is the Federal Reserve’s gradual reduction of interest rates. 

Razaqzada said much of whether gold can “sustain its momentum or whether it will reach and move beyond $4,000” will depend on US monetary policy.

He added a faster rate of cuts would “accelerate the rally, while a firmer stance could take some of the shine off”.

Markets are currently pricing in a 99 per cent chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to the FedWatch tool by CME.

Whilst the yellow metal is not directly pegged to Fed cuts, the reductions make interest-bearing assets less attractive. Gold – a non-yielding asset – thus comes back into favour due to its lack of a yield and is no longer at a disadvantage compared to low-interest savings and bonds. 

Gold to glitter past $4,000 after year of political jitters

Corporate borrowers face funding trade-off as PIMCO flags debt market ‘cracks

Published Thu, Oct 2 2025 2:50 AM EDT

PIMCO President Christian Stracke is upbeat on the asset-based finance segment of the private credit market, but warns of “cracks” in corporate direct lending, which makes up the bulk of the sector.

Speaking with CNBC’s Chery Kang at the annual Milken Asia Summit in Singapore Wednesday, Stracke highlighted the widening gap between the two lending spheres.

“There are problems [in corporate private credit] where borrowers are going to their lenders and saying, ‘Can I not pay you cash interest now, but basically borrow the interest from you and pay it later?’ It’s called Payment-in-Kind [PIK], and it’s fairly prevalent right now,” Stracke said.

Balance sheet divergence

He referred to asset-based financing as a “much healthier” credit environment.

“In asset-based financing — residential mortgages, consumer loans, student loans and auto loans — the economy is strong, households are strong, the consumer is strong, and we really aren’t seeing cracks that way,” he added.

The widening gap stems from the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, which saw consumer borrowers scale back their borrowing and deleverage their household balance sheets, which has helped boost asset-based financing activity. Corporate borrowers, in contrast, have built up their leverage and have “less clean” balance sheets.

In October last year, PIMCO raised more than $2 billion for asset-based specialty financing strategy as part of its continued push into private credit.

Corporate borrowers also face a trade-off in public versus private debt markets, according to Stracke.

The smaller number of lenders in private markets means it can be easier for borrowers to renegotiate loan terms in the event of loan pressure — albeit with higher costs.

Unfolding opportunities

More liquid bank debt, on the other hand, comes at a much lower cost, though the refinancing process can be trickier.

“It’s more difficult with a broadly syndicated bank loan or bond,” Stracke said. “We’re seeing some real problems in the credit markets. There have been some high-profile defaults in the credit markets — in the public markets — where it’s very difficult for the company to negotiate with the lenders to preserve value in the company.”

Looking ahead, Stracke said that as the Federal Reserve continues on its path of interest rate cuts, and the overall all-in cost of borrowing comes down, particularly in mortgage rates, there will be more opportunities for PIMCO to take advantage of that demand for credit.

More

Borrowers face funding trade-off as PIMCO flags debt market cracks

In other news, Pfizer’s exorbitant profits exposed.

Big Pharma's Turnaround Moment

October 2, 2025

Big Pharma has been out of favor with investors on fears of tariffs and price controls. This week might have marked a turning point. 

On Tuesday, Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla stood alongside President Trump at the White House to unveil “TrumpRx,” a government website that will allow Americans to buy certain medicines at discounted cash prices.

Pfizer says the price cuts on its products will average around 50% and in some cases reach as high as 85%. The company also committed to price all new medicines at parity with other developed markets while extending “most-favored-nation” pricing to Medicaid patients.

Bourla paired the announcement with a $70 billion pledge to expand U.S. drug manufacturing and research and development. In return, the company gains a three-year grace period to exempt it from national security-related tariffs.

Questions remain. For one, it isn’t obvious how useful TrumpRx will be for most Americans, who already receive coverage through private insurance, Medicare or Medicaid. Details are lacking on how Pfizer will price future drug releases, both overseas and in the U.S. 

But the big picture is that Trump’s pressure campaign on the pharma industry may be winding down. Since most big-pharma companies are already pledging large investments in U.S. manufacturing, they should be able to steer clear of heavy tariffs.

For products still being imported from European countries, a deal reached with the EU in late July caps U.S. tariffs on pharma exports at 15%. Now the standoff over pricing is nearing resolution. 

“If this is all that President Trump does on drug pricing, it is likely a win for the pharmaceutical industry and should serve as a clearing event,” said Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins in a note. The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index rallied on Tuesday and Wednesday, reflecting a sense that the political overhang may finally be lifting. Pfizer rose more than 10% over the two sessions.

Even after recent gains, the Arca Pharmaceutical index is still down about 5% over the past 12 months, compared with a 18% rise for the S&P 500. The pharma index trades at one of its widest historical discounts. Some of that reflects the AI-driven surge in technology stocks. Much of it stems from investors steering clear of a sector overshadowed by politics.

The setup is reminiscent of the early 1990s when drug stocks were pummeled by fears of “Hillarycare,” the Clinton administration’s proposed health-care overhaul. When the plan collapsed in late 1994, the group snapped back sharply.

Signs of a weakening U.S. economy could give investors another reason to return to healthcare. Historically, it has tended to outperform during downturns.

marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-gvtydy-ykyklyltw-r/

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Auto giant's collapse sparks recession fears in haunting parallel to 2008 crash: 'Canary in the coal mine'

Published: 03:19, 30 September 2025 | Updated: 13:42, 30 September 2025

Another auto company bankruptcy has set alarm bells ringing that the US economy could be heading toward a repeat of the 2008 financial meltdown.

This time, the trouble isn't mortgages — it's car loans, which have never been bigger at $1.7 trillion. That's not as high as home loans were in 2008, but experts warn it could be enough to trigger a domino effect reaching mortgages. 

More Americans are stretched thin, earning less in real terms and struggling to make ends meet, forcing lenders to hand out riskier loans just to keep car sales alive. 

Millions are already behind on subprime car loans, which experts say could be the first warning sign of broader debt problems and eventual mortgage defaults. 

The warning signs are stacking up. First Brands, a manufacturer of filters, brakes, wipers, and lighting systems, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday night. 

Its collapse comes just two weeks after subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings went bankrupt and shut down, and follows June's Chapter 11 filing by Marelli, a supplier for Nissan and Chrysler. 

Experts told the Daily Mail that these bankruptcies are another part of an auto industry flashing danger signals that could spill into the broader economy. 

Record-high car prices, ballooning consumer debt, and tariffs have analysts drawing comparisons to the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, when banks flooded the market with risky housing loans that Americans couldn't afford. 

That year, 3.1million Americans lost their homes to foreclosure, and the economy collapsed as consumer spending dried up. 

Huge brands such as Circuit City, Linens 'n Things, and Boscovs shuttered stores while financial institutions Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Washington Mutual fell apart. 

Today, the same dynamics are appearing in car loans, with lenders approving financing for buyers already stretched to the limit. 

'Low-income car buyers are getting hit the hardest right now,' Erin Witte, director of consumer protection at Consumer Federation of America, told the Daily Mail.

'In the Tricolor collapse, many borrowers suddenly lost access to their cars, their trade-ins weren't paid off, and messy loan transfers could even lead to wrongful repossessions or damaged credit.

'It shows just how fragile the auto finance market has become.' 

While the $1.7 trillion in car loans is far below the $10.6 trillion in mortgage debt at the 2008 peak, it's still the largest consumer debt category after mortgages and has been growing steadily. 

'The biggest issue is affordability,' David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar, told the Daily Mail. 'And the big question mark is how much tariff costs will get passed to consumers.' 

Experts say high prices for cars will only be worsened by President Donald Trump's 25 percent automotive tariffs.

So far, the automakers have mostly shielded customers from the import tax by eating billions of dollars in previous profits. 

GM estimates it will pay between $4billion and $5billion this year, while Ford expects a $2billion hit. 

But instead of raising sticker prices, they've absorbed the costs or cut jobs — even as vehicle prices have already soared 30 percent since 2019. 

Even without tariffs, the cost of owning a car has already driven Americans into record debt.

The average new vehicle now sells for $49,968, which means buyers have typical monthly payments over $750. 

More

Auto giant's collapse sparks recession fears in haunting parallel to 2008 crash: 'Canary in the coal mine' | Daily Mail Online

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

This Startup Wants to Put Its Brain-Computer Interface in the Apple Vision Pro

California-based Cognixion is launching a clinical trial to allow paralyzed patients with speech disorders the ability to communicate without an invasive brain implant.

Oct 1, 2025 9:00 AM

Startup Cognixion announced today that it is launching a clinical trial of its wearable brain-computer interface technology integrated with the Apple Vision Pro to help paralyzed people with speech disorders communicate with their thoughts.

Cognixion is one of several companies, including Elon Musk’s Neuralink, that is developing a brain-computer interface, or BCI, a system that captures brain signals and translates them into commands to control external devices.

While Neuralink and others are working on implants that are surgically placed in the head, Cognixion’s technology is noninvasive. The Santa Barbara, California, company is testing both a software component (an augmented reality BCI app) and a hardware add-on (a custom headband that can read brain signals) with the Vision Pro. The trial will include up to 10 participants in the US with speech impairments due to paralysis from spinal cord injury, stroke, traumatic brain injury, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as ALS or Lou Gehrig’s disease.

Cognixion’s goal is to get BCI technology to as many people as possible, and it sees the Vision Pro as a way to do that. “In order to democratize access, you need to do it in such a way that's the least risky and the most acceptable for adoption for the majority of people,” says Andreas Forsland, the company’s CEO.

Forsland started Cognixion after his mother got sick with pneumonia and was intubated in the ICU. She was fully conscious of everything going on around her but was unable to speak; Forsland became her communication partner when she was in the hospital.

“As a result of that, I experienced tremendous breakdowns of communication between her and her care providers, where I had to intervene,” he says. He started thinking about how people with speech motor disabilities need better ways to communicate.

The company has already designed its own headset, called the Axon-R, and tested it with ALS patients earlier this year. Its custom software uses generative AI models that train on an individual user’s speech patterns. Paired together, the technology enabled participants to “speak” through the headset at a rate approaching normal conversation speed. That study showed that patients could comfortably use the BCI for a few hours a day, several times a week.

Now, Cognixion is bringing its AI communication app to the Vision Pro, which Forsland says has more functionality than the purpose-built Axon-R. “The Vision Pro gives you all of your apps, the app store, everything you want to do,” he says.

Apple opened the door to BCI integration in May, when it announced a new protocol to allow users with severe mobility disabilities to control the iPhone, iPad, and Vision Pro without physical movement. Another BCI company, Synchron, whose implant is inserted into a blood vessel adjacent to the brain, has also integrated its system with the Vision Pro. (Apple is not known to be developing its own BCI.)

In Cognixion’s trial, the company has swapped out Apple’s headband for its own, which is embedded with six electroencephalographic, or EEG, sensors. These collect information from the brain’s visual and parietal cortex, located at the back of the head. Specifically, Cognixion’s system identifies visual fixation signals, which occur when a person is maintaining their gaze on an object. This allows users to select from a menu of options in the interface using mental attention alone. A neural computing pack worn at the hip processes brain data outside of the Vision Pro.

“The philosophy of our approach is around reducing the amount of burden that is being generated by the person’s communication needs,” says Chris Ullrich, Cognixion’s chief technology officer.

More

This Startup Wants to Put Its Brain-Computer Interface in the Apple Vision Pro | WIRED

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the first weekend of the US government partial shutdown. What mischief will Washington, District of Crooks think up for next week’s tribulations? Have a great weekend everyone.

I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.

Thomas Jefferson

US Government Shutdown Day 2. US EV Subsidies End.

Baltic Dry Index. 1980 -154             Brent Crude 65.68

Spot Gold 3868                  US 2 Year Yield 3.55 -0.13

US Federal Debt. 37.552 trillion

US GDP 30.303 trillion.

It is the highest impertinence and presumption… in kings and ministers, to pretend to watch over the economy of private people, and to restrain their expense... They are themselves always, and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society. Let them look well after their own expense, and they may safely trust private people with theirs. If their own extravagance does not ruin the state, that of their subjects never will.

Adam Smith. The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

In the stock casinos, it’s still AI mania party time. What could possibly go wrong?

Well the US, EU and UK economies are showing serious signs of rolling over, while the end of US EV subsidies likely brings in a serious down turn in US EV sales.

A surge in furloughed US federal workers won’t do much for the US economy either.

From David Stockman’s latest update on casino madness:

You can go up and down the table below, but here’s the thing: The top 10 tech companies have a combined market cap of $19.53 trillion against LTM net income of $469.5 billion. That computes to a combined PE multiple of 41.6X for the entire group.

Of course, the reciprocal of the PE multiple is the earnings yield, which for these super high flyers would amount to 2.4%. And that’s barely half the yield on a super-safe long-term Treasury bond. In a word, the crowd down in the canyons of Wall Street has truly gone mad.

South Korea's Kospi hits record high as Samsung and SK Hynix soar on OpenAI partnership

Published Wed, Oct 1 2025 7:56 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi index jumped more than 3% Thursday to hit an all-time high, lifted by gains in heavyweight Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Shares in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which announced a partnership with OpenAI late Wednesday to supply memory chips, rose over 4% and 11%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Kosdaq rose 0.95%.

South Korea’s consumer price index climbed 2.1% year on year in September, more than the 2% rise expected by economists in a Reuters poll. The latest reading compares with the 1.7% growth in August.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index advanced 0.6%, while the Topix fell 0.54%.

Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 surged 1.14%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 1.30%. Shares of Zijin Gold skyrocketed nearly 12%, building on gains for two consecutive days since its Hong Kong trading debut Tuesday. The Hang Seng Tech index climbed 2.08%.

Chinese and Indian markets were closed for holidays.

U.S. equity futures were little changed in early Asian hours after the S&P 500 recorded a fresh high Wednesday stateside, as traders bet that the U.S. government shutdown would be short-lived.

The shutdown is expected to last at least three days, with the Senate set to be out of session Thursday stateside due to Yom Kippur, but traders are betting that the shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks.

Overnight, the broad market index gained 0.34% to close at 6,711.20. Earlier, it had hit a new all-time intraday high. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.42% to settle at 22,755.16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.21 points, or 0.09%, to finish at 46,441.10.

South Korea's Kospi hits record high as Samsung and SK Hynix soar on OpenAI partnership

Stock futures are little changed as investors look past government shutdown: Live updates

Updated Thu, Oct 2 2025 7:24 PM EDT

Stock futures are little changed Wednesday night after the S&P 500 logged a fresh high and investors appeared to shrug off concerns tied to the latest U.S. government shutdown.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30 points, or 0.06%. S&P futures slipped 0.04%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.

The major U.S. stock indexes closed in the green on Wednesday on hopes that the funding stoppage would be brief and therefore limit any serious effects on the economy. The S&P 500 gained roughly 0.3% to end the session at a record high, while the Nasdaq Composite closed 0.4% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 43 points, or 0.1%.

The government shutdown began after top Democrats and Republicans failed Tuesday to meet the deadline to agree on a deal that would keep the government funded. Lawmakers blamed each other for the stoppage as Democrats stayed firm on their demands to use the measure to extend health care tax credits for millions of Americans.

The biggest question for investors is how long the current stalemate will last. It is likely to drag on for at least three days with the Senate set to be out of session Thursday in observance of Yom Kippur, making Friday the next day Senators would be expected to vote again, NBC News reported. On prediction markets, traders are betting that the shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks.

“My belief is this shutdown could last even longer than in 2018 but that other factors will ultimately matter more such as 1) upcoming Q3 earnings being solid, 2) AI euphoria continuing with the Mag7 reporting solid qtrs and 3) the next Fed mtg on 10/29 where I expect the Fed to stay on its course to cut rates three times this year,” Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management founder and portfolio manager, wrote in a Tuesday post on X.

“In summary, I believe that despite the potential for some near-term choppiness, the mkt will ultimately see new highs as it slowly grinds higher,” Niles added.

The stock market has historically not been much affected by government shutdowns, but investors are paying closer attention to this one given the more volatile policy and macroeconomic backdrop, elevated market valuations and concentration levels amid the AI-led rally and ongoing inflation concerns. Moreover, President Donald Trump has threatened permanent mass firings of federal workers under a shutdown, exacerbating existing worries about a slowing labor market.

An economic data blackout during the shutdown this week is also top of mind, as the September nonfarm payrolls report will not be released on Friday given the Labor Department’s pause on virtually all activity. The Federal Reserve is expected announce an interest rate cut at its upcoming October meeting after Wednesday morning’s ADP data reflected a drop in private payrolls last month, and as further ramifications of the ongoing shutdown remain to be seen.

U.S. stocks are coming off of a strong third quarter and September, which saw the S&P 500 boast a gain more than 3% in a trading month that has averaged a 4.2% loss over the last five years.

Stock market today: Live updates

New Private Data Points to Softening Jobs Market

October 1, 2025 at 11:12 PM GMT+1

Payrolls at US companies unexpectedly dropped in September, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. While part of that was due to an adjustment related to government numbers it relies on, the company said the data continues to support an underlying softening trend. Other recent sources generally point to anemic job growth, less appetite for hiring, few firings and modest wage gains.

“This month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The report, published in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed wage growth continued to gradually soften. Workers who changed jobs saw a 6.6% increase in pay, the lowest in a year. Those who stayed put saw a 4.5% gain, little changed from the prior month.

The ADP data stand to be the highest profile report on the labor market this week as the Trump administration said it would delay its September employment numbers, scheduled for Friday, because of the government shutdown. Some on Wall Street have cast doubt on ADP’s data, favoring instead that of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. But President Donald Trump’s August firing of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a grim jobs report has planted seeds of doubt as to the reliability of BLS numbers and whether they will be insulated from politics.

More

More Private Data Points to Softening Jobs Market: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

U.S. Lost 32,000 Jobs in September, Says Payroll Processor

ADP report shows a labor force that continues to deteriorate

Updated Oct. 1, 2025 10:07 am ET

The U.S. shed 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, payroll-processing giant ADP said on Wednesday.

That is down from a revised loss of 3,000 in August. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected an increase of 45,000.

ADP’s report doesn’t include government workers, but economists are giving it a closer look this month. That is because the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, which was scheduled to come out this Friday, will be delayed if the government is still shut down.

The surprise job loss in September is the latest sign that the labor market is weakening. Job growth has slowed to a trickle this year even as the unemployment rate has held mostly steady. The Federal Reserve last month lowered short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled more cuts are likely, citing weak hiring. The labor market “is a little bit tenuous right now,” said Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America. 

The leisure and hospitality sector shed 19,000 jobs last month, the largest decline among major sectors, according to ADP. Education and health services were bright spots, with a collective gain of 33,000 jobs.

More

ADP Report: U.S. Lost 32,000 Private-Sector Jobs in September - WSJ

1 big thing: A new electric vehicle era is here

October 01, 2025

Welcome to the next — and probably slower — phase of U.S. EV adoption after yesterday's demise of federal purchase and lease subsidies.

Why it matters: The future of EV sales affects automakers' strategies, battery and mining companies, and planet-warming emissions from transportation.

🗞️ Driving the news: Credits up to $7,500 for many new EVs — initially put in place until 2032 under the Biden climate law — are gone under the quick phaseout in the GOP budget law.

• So are credits up to $4,000 for used models.
• Analysts expect sales to decline, or at least plateau, after consumers rushed to tap vanishing incentives.

The big picture: Like that earworm of a '70s PSA, automakers are in "be prepared" mode.

• Many have revised EV production targets downward but are still investing in battery development, ING analyst Coco Zhang notes.
• They're "betting on the ability to produce more efficient, affordable models," Zhang, the bank's VP of ESG research, said in an email.
• For instance, Ford is pushing ahead with development of lower-cost models, starting with a midsize four-door electric pickup with a $30,000 base price in 2027.

More

Axios Future of Energy

In other news.

China’s DeepSeek launches next-gen AI model. Here’s what makes it different

Published Tue, Sep 30 2025 4:43 AM EDT Updated Tue, Sep 30 2025 5:16 AM EDT

Chinese startup DeepSeek’s latest experimental model promises to increase efficiency and improve AI’s ability to handle a lot of information at a fraction of the cost, but questions remain over how effective and safe the architecture is.  

DeepSeek sent Silicon Valley into a frenzy when it launched its first model R1 out of nowhere last year, showing that it’s possible to train large language models (LLMs) quickly, on less powerful chips, using fewer resources.

The company released DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp on Monday, an experimental version of its current model DeepSeek-V3.1-Terminus, which builds further on its mission to increase efficiency in AI systems, according to a post on the AI forum Hugging Face.

“DeepSeek V3.2 continues the focus on efficiency, cost reduction, and open-source sharing,” Adina Yakefu, Chinese community lead at Hugging Face, told CNBC. “The big improvement is a new feature called DSA (DeepSeek Sparse Attention), which makes the AI better at handling long documents and conversations. It also cuts the cost of running the AI in half compared to the previous version.”

“It’s significant because it should make the model faster and more cost-effective to use without a noticeable drop in performance,” said Nick Patience, vice president and practice lead for AI at The Futurum Group. “This makes powerful AI more accessible to developers, researchers, and smaller companies, potentially leading to a wave of new and innovative applications.”

The pros and cons of sparse attention 

An AI model makes decisions based on its training data and new information, such as a prompt. Say an airline wants to find the best route from A to B, while there are many options, not all are feasible. By filtering out the less viable routes, you dramatically reduce the amount of time, fuel and, ultimately, money, needed to make the journey. That is exactly sparse attention does, it only factors in data that it thinks is important given the task at hand, as opposed to other models thus far which have crunched all data in the model.

“So basically, you cut out things that you think are not important,” said Ekaterina Almasque, the cofounder and managing partner of new venture capital fund BlankPage Capital.

Sparse attention is a boon for efficiency and the ability to scale AI given fewer resources are needed, but one concern is that it could lead to a drop in how reliable models are due to the lack of oversight in how and why it discounts information.

“The reality is, they [sparse attention models] have lost a lot of nuances,” said Almasque, who was an early supporter of Dataiku and Darktrace, and an investor in Graphcore. “And then the real question is, did they have the right mechanism to exclude not important data, or is there a mechanism excluding really important data, and then the outcome will be much less relevant?”

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What's new in DeepSeek's latest model: DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

How will the great AI bubble fix any of this?

Business confidence ‘plumbs new depths’ ahead of Budget

Wednesday 01 October 2025 12:00 am  |  Updated:  Tuesday 30 September 2025 5:13 pm

Business confidence fell to a fresh record low in September, as fears of another cost squeeze stoked an already dire operating environment that was found to have “worsened across the board”.

According to an Institute of Directors (IoD) poll, private sector optimism plunged to the lowest level since the industry body started collecting data a decade ago, piling fresh pressure on new business secretary Peter Kyle and the Chancellor as she prepares her second Budget.

Optimism among business leaders fell to a score of -74 last month, the survey found, meaning nearly 80 per cent of bosses felt either ‘quite pessimistic’ or ‘very pessimistic’ about the outlook for the UK economy over the next year. This was dow from a score of -61 in August and eclipsed the previous record – set this July – of -72.

Execs overwhelmingly attributed their dour predictions to fears that the batch of tax hikes expected at next month’s Budget will set off another round of heightened price pressures that will drive up the cost of wages and firms’ other inputs.

Business confidence falls as they brace for tax hikes

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is widely expected to unveil up to £30bn of tax rises when she publishes her second major fiscal event on 26 November. Bosses fear the more constrictive fiscal landscape will drive up staff’s wage demands and supply costs, in a manner redolent of the months following the government’s fateful £25bn raid on payroll tax last year.

“Business confidence has plumbed new depths in September, following a fleeting improvement at the tag-end of summer,” said IoD boss Anna Leach. “Conditions worsened across the board, with cost expectations hitting a record high, driven notably by employment costs.”

Respondents’ outlook for staff headcount and investment were also found to have fallen sharply. Headcount expectations fell to -13 from -4 in August, while investment intentions plunged as much as 12 points to -20.

The bleak poll adds to a string of similar updates that have laid bare the battle the Chancellor is locked in to revive the UK’s economic fortunes. On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics confirmed the economy grew by just 0.3 per cent in the second quarter, while the UK’s fiscal watchdog is widely expected to downgrade its all-important productivity forecast, in what would amount to a major blow to the government’s tax-and-spend plans.

Leach added: “The Chancellor’s conference speech rightly reiterated the role that fiscal credibility has in providing the platform for growth. But we urgently need a genuinely growth-focused Budget that has business at its heart, that delivers genuine policy coherence and stability and reduces regulatory and tax burdens on business.”

The IoD data was reflected in a similar poll released on Tuesday, which also found confidence had slumped as firms braced for the chilling effect of higher taxes.

Lloyds’ monthly Business Barometer – whose more optimistic findings mean it has been regularly cited by both the Prime Minister and Chancellor – dropped from 54 to 42 per cent.

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Business confidence 'plumbs new depths' ahead of Budget

Stellantis will temporarily halt production at French plant in Mulhouse

September 30, 2025

MEUDON, France (Reuters) -Stellantis will temporarily halt production at its plant in Mulhouse, in northeastern France, from October 27 to November 2, a union and the carmaker said on Tuesday.

The move will affect about 2,000 of the 4,700 employees who work at the plant, which makes two Peugeot models, the 308 and the 408, and one DS model, the DS7

The company said the step was being taken to adjust the production rate to a "difficult" European market and to manage inventories as efficiently as possible before the end of the year.

Stellantis had previously said it would temporarily halt production at its plants in Poissy, near Paris, and in Pomigliano, close to the Italian town of Naples, from end-September for up to three weeks due to weak market demand in Europe.

Stellantis will temporarily halt production at French plant in Mulhouse

Eurozone inflation hits 5-month high: ECB expected to stay cautious

1 October 2025

Price pressures across the eurozone picked up pace in September, reaching their highest level since April, but the rise is unlikely to alter the European Central Bank's (ECB's) wait-and-see approach.

Annual inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.2% in September, up from 2.0% in August, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate. The reading was in line with economist expectations. On a month-on-month basis, prices edged up 0.1%, mirroring August's figure.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.3% for the fifth month running, offering reassurance that underlying price pressures are not gaining momentum, even as headline figures rise.

Among inflation’s key drivers, services led the pack with a 3.2% annual increase, slightly up from 3.1% in August.

Food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 3.0%, easing from 3.2%, while non-energy industrial goods were stable at 0.8%. Energy prices continued to shrink, but at a slower rate, down 0.4%, compared to 2.0% in August.

Estonia posted the highest inflation rate at 5.2%, followed by Croatia and Slovakia at 4.6% each. At the other end of the spectrum, Cyprus recorded no annual change, and France saw a mild increase of 1.1%.

Monthly trends were more striking in some areas. Italy and Portugal led with price increases of 1.3% and 1.0% respectively, suggesting some localised acceleration.

What does this mean for the ECB?

At its September meeting, the ECB chose to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the deposit facility at 2.00%. Projections published then showed inflation expected to average 2.1% in 2025, easing to 1.7% in 2026, before nudging back up to 1.9% in 2027. Core inflation is seen gradually declining over the same horizon.

President Christine Lagarde said the ECB is “in a good place” to hold rates steady, with no urgency to either tighten or ease policy further.

The latest inflation figures appear to validate that stance.

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Eurozone inflation hits 5-month high: ECB expected to stay cautious

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, more on a fire danger that’s only going to get worse with each passing year.

Bike battery fire in The Hague destroys home, damages seven

September 30, 2025

The emergency services evacuated the inhabitants of eight apartments in The Hague on Monday evening when the battery of an electric fatbike caught fire during recharging.

The fire started at 10 pm and was already so advanced that some of the inhabitants had to be rescued from their balconies. Three people were taken to hospital to be treated for smoke inhalation.

The apartment where the fire broke out is beyond salvaging, the fire service said, and the inhabitants of the other apartments must also wait until their homes are declared safe.

Batteries used in electric vehicles, power tools, tablets, phones and games are an increasing source of house fires, according to figures from the insurers association VvV.

Technical faults or damage to the battery can cause it to overheat, leading to a phenomenon called “thermal runaway” and an intense fire that can be difficult to control.

In 2023, batteries were responsible for 5% of all home fires, up from 3% in 2022, the VvV said. No figures are available yet for 2024 or this year.

Some 48% of all new bikes sold in the Netherlands in 2024 were electric.

Bike battery fire in The Hague destroys home, damages seven - DutchNews.nl

Fire displaces 4, hazmat crews remove lithium-ion battery

September 30, 2025

DENVER (KDVR) — Four people are displaced from their home after a fire involving an electric scooter battery in Arapahoe County on Tuesday.

South Metro Fire Rescue and the Arapahoe County Sheriff’s Office responded to a fire at a multi-family residence on East Harvard Avenue, according to a post on X from South Metro Fire Rescue.

Not long after the initial post, South Metro Fire provided an update that crews were on the scene, had water on the fire and everything was under control. However, the hazmat team had to respond to the fire after learning that a lithium-ion battery was possibly in the blaze.

Four people were displaced due to the fire and are being assisted by the Red Cross of Colorado and Wyoming. Another unit in the building sustained water damage, but was unoccupied at the time of the fire.

The hazmat crew was able to retrieve the lithium-ion battery, which was attached to an electric scooter. The scooter was pulled from the fire, and the hazmat team is working with South Metro Logistics to dispose of the scooter.

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Fire displaces 4, hazmat crews remove lithium-ion battery

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.

Adam Smith. The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.