Baltic
Dry Index. 1909 -71 Brent Crude 64.50
Spot Gold 3845 US 2 Year Yield 3.55 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.557 trillion
US GDP 30.305 trillion.
Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt.
Herbert Hoover
In the global stock casinos, more AI mania. More massive and growing disconnect from the reality of the US, UK, EU and Chinese economies.
That the great AI bubble will burst, generating unprecedented losses is a given, we just don’t know when or why, but that great reset just might bring down the increasingly weaponised dollar reserve standard.
Could that be increasingly behind the Great Gold Surge of 2025?
Today’s good news, ahead of the coming OPEC+ meeting crude oil prices are falling in anticipation of production increase.
Stock futures are little changed as AI
trade drives market to fresh highs, shutdown grinds on: Live updates
Updated Fri, Oct 3 2025 7:51 PM EDT
Stock futures were mostly unchanged after
the market recorded new highs on Thursday, driven by strength in the artificial
intelligence trade that appeared to overpower concerns about the 2-day-old U.S.
government shutdown.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 1 point. S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were
slightly positive, but trading near the flatline.
Each of the three major U.S. indexes
climbed to record levels on Thursday. The S&P 500 inched up 0.06%,
while the Dow Jones Industrial
Average climbed more than 78 points, or nearly 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite rose about
0.4%, powered by a 0.9% gain in Nvidia that
propelled the chipmaker to an all-time high. Other chipmakers also gained
ground, with Intel and AMD each rising more than 3%.
The government shutdown, which will
continue for a third day on Friday, has exacerbated investors’ underlying
concerns this year about macroeconomic and policy headwinds, inflation risks
and a slowing labor market. Investors are waiting to see how long the shutdown
will persist to gauge the seriousness of its economic repercussions. To be
sure, shutdowns have not been market-moving events in the past.
″[Thursday’s] market moves suggest that
the history of govt shutdowns still holds sway,” Paul Christopher, head of
global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a
note. “These events have modest negative economic impacts as they occur, but
the eventual reopening of the federal bureaucracy erases those nicks to the
economy.”
“We do not know how long the shutdown will
last, but our guidance remains to look through the event to what we expect will
be the main drivers of the economy and investment returns through the next
12-15 months, namely, a gradual reduction in tariff uncertainty, large tax
benefits to both corporations and individuals (especially early in 2026),
deregulation, and lower borrowing costs as the Fed cuts interest rates,”
Christopher added.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent told
CNBC that the current lapse in government funding could lead to “a hit
to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working America.”
President Donald Trump has threatened
massive layoffs, which have stoked ongoing concerns about the jobs market. On
Thursday, he said the Democrats have given him an “unprecedented
opportunity” to cut federal agencies. The Congressional Budget Office
estimates 750,000 federal workers will be furloughed each day.
The shutdown also has led to an economic
data blackout. The Labor Department’s pause on virtually all activity has
blocked the Friday release of the September
nonfarm payrolls report, lessening the amount of economic data the Federal
Reserve can factor into its interest rate decision at its October meeting.
However, it also removes
a factor that could lend pressure to stocks.
The shutdown began after Congress failed
Tuesday to reach an agreement on government funding. Top Democrats have stayed
firm on their demands to to pass a spending bill that would extend
health care tax credits for millions of Americans, leading to
retaliation from Trump and top Republicans.
Despite the rancor, stocks are tracking
for a winning week. The S&P 500 is up nearly 1.1% week to date, while the
30-stock Dow has added 0.6% and the Nasdaq has climbed 1.6%.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Gold to glitter past $4,000 after year of
political jitters
Thursday 02 October 2025 2:02 pm
In a year defined by geopolitical turmoil, gold has not stopped glittering.
The yellow metal started the year near
$2669 and has since soared to $3900 – a rise of over 45 per cent.
The asset now looks set to cross the
$4,000 landmark for the first time with the latest rally triggered by the US
government shutdown.
The precious metal is considered a safe
haven asset for investors as its value is insulated from political
instability.
The asset is not easily devalued as
currency is if the government chooses to print more and it is not tied to
performance of a specific company.
Instead, gold prices often move inversely
to stocks and other financial assets.
“Gold’s ascent reflects geopolitics and
fragmentation of the global financial system, particularly as it seems trust in
the almighty greenback and Treasuries is being fundamentally questioned,” said
Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo.
The dollar has had a tumultuous year – falling to historic
lows in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive.
As the US government went into a shutdown after Trump failed
to secure the votes for a federal funding package earlier this week, the dollar
took a hit. The DXY index – which tracks the dollar against a basket of
currencies – fell 0.14 per cent to 97.59 on Thursday morning.
The downturn helped fuel gold’s rally to
$3,800 and days later $3,900.
Gold’s September run
In the third quarter alone, gold has risen
15 per cent.
Goldman Sachs Research analyst Linda
Thomas said this fell in line with the central bank’s purchasing plan.
Central banks have purchased 64 tonnes of gold per
month this year – below forecasts of 80 tonnes.
“This is consistent with the seasonal
pattern,” Thomas said.
“Central bank purchases tend to slow in
the summer and re-accelerate from September.”
But analysts are warning the yellow metal
may be due for some pullback even after the gleaming performance.
“This is not to suggest that gold can’t go
higher, just that it may need a pullback or period of consolidation first,”
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex, said.
“Despite this, there’s a growing feeling
of FOMO amongst investors, even as the retail market has yet to get involved in
the way it has done during previous bull runs.”
Razaqzada added the factors benefitting
gold were “likely to persist” into the final quarter of the year.
Gold bounces on Fed cuts
Another factor driving the yellow metal’s
rally is the Federal Reserve’s gradual reduction of interest
rates.
Razaqzada said much of whether gold can
“sustain its momentum or whether it will reach and move beyond $4,000” will
depend on US monetary policy.
He added a faster rate of cuts would
“accelerate the rally, while a firmer stance could take some of the shine off”.
Markets are currently pricing in a 99 per
cent chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to the FedWatch tool by CME.
Whilst the yellow metal is not directly
pegged to Fed cuts, the reductions make interest-bearing assets less
attractive. Gold – a non-yielding asset – thus comes back into favour due to
its lack of a yield and is no longer at a disadvantage compared to low-interest
savings and bonds.
Gold
to glitter past $4,000 after year of political jitters
Corporate borrowers face funding trade-off as
PIMCO flags debt market ‘cracks
Published Thu, Oct 2 2025 2:50 AM EDT
PIMCO President Christian Stracke is
upbeat on the asset-based finance segment of the private credit market, but
warns of “cracks” in corporate direct lending, which makes up the bulk of the
sector.
Speaking with CNBC’s Chery Kang at the
annual Milken Asia Summit in Singapore Wednesday, Stracke highlighted the
widening gap between the two lending spheres.
“There are problems [in corporate private
credit] where borrowers are going to their lenders and saying, ‘Can I not pay
you cash interest now, but basically borrow the interest from you and pay it
later?’ It’s called Payment-in-Kind [PIK], and it’s fairly prevalent right
now,” Stracke said.
Balance sheet divergence
He referred to asset-based financing as a
“much healthier” credit environment.
“In asset-based financing — residential
mortgages, consumer loans, student loans and auto loans — the economy is
strong, households are strong, the consumer is strong, and we really aren’t
seeing cracks that way,” he added.
The widening gap stems from the aftermath
of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, which saw consumer borrowers scale back
their borrowing and deleverage their household balance sheets, which has helped
boost asset-based financing activity. Corporate borrowers, in contrast, have
built up their leverage and have “less clean” balance sheets.
In October last year, PIMCO raised more
than $2 billion for asset-based specialty financing strategy as part of its
continued push into private credit.
Corporate borrowers also face a trade-off
in public versus private debt markets, according to Stracke.
The smaller number of lenders in private
markets means it can be easier for borrowers to renegotiate loan terms in the
event of loan pressure — albeit with higher costs.
Unfolding opportunities
More liquid bank debt, on the other hand,
comes at a much lower cost, though the refinancing process can be trickier.
“It’s more difficult with a broadly
syndicated bank loan or bond,” Stracke said. “We’re seeing some real problems
in the credit markets. There have been some high-profile defaults in the credit
markets — in the public markets — where it’s very difficult for the company to
negotiate with the lenders to preserve value in the company.”
Looking ahead, Stracke said that as the
Federal Reserve continues on its path of interest rate cuts, and the overall
all-in cost of borrowing comes down, particularly in mortgage rates, there will
be more opportunities for PIMCO to take advantage of that demand for credit.
More
Borrowers face
funding trade-off as PIMCO flags debt market cracks
In other news, Pfizer’s exorbitant profits
exposed.
Big Pharma's Turnaround Moment
October 2, 2025
Big Pharma has been out of favor with
investors on fears of tariffs and price controls. This week might have marked a
turning point.
On Tuesday, Pfizer Chief Executive Albert
Bourla stood alongside President Trump at the White House to unveil “TrumpRx,”
a government website that will allow Americans to buy certain medicines at
discounted cash prices.
Pfizer says the price cuts on its products will average around 50% and in some
cases reach as high as 85%. The company also committed to price all new
medicines at parity with other developed markets while extending
“most-favored-nation” pricing to Medicaid patients.
Bourla paired the announcement with a $70
billion pledge to expand U.S. drug manufacturing and research and development.
In return, the company gains a three-year grace period to exempt it from
national security-related tariffs.
Questions remain. For one, it isn’t
obvious how useful TrumpRx will be for most Americans, who already receive
coverage through private insurance, Medicare or Medicaid. Details are lacking
on how Pfizer will price future drug releases, both overseas and in the
U.S.
But the big picture is that Trump’s
pressure campaign on the pharma industry may be winding down. Since most
big-pharma companies are already pledging large investments in U.S.
manufacturing, they should be able to steer clear of heavy tariffs.
For products still being imported from
European countries, a deal reached with the EU in late July caps U.S. tariffs
on pharma exports at 15%. Now the standoff over pricing is nearing
resolution.
“If this is all that President Trump does
on drug pricing, it is likely a win for the pharmaceutical industry and should
serve as a clearing event,” said Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins in a note.
The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index rallied on Tuesday and Wednesday, reflecting
a sense that the political overhang may finally be lifting. Pfizer rose more
than 10% over the two sessions.
Even after recent gains, the Arca
Pharmaceutical index is still down about 5% over the past 12 months, compared
with a 18% rise for the S&P 500. The pharma index trades at one of its
widest historical discounts. Some of that reflects the AI-driven surge in
technology stocks. Much of it stems from investors steering clear of a sector
overshadowed by politics.
The setup is reminiscent of the early
1990s when drug stocks were pummeled by fears of “Hillarycare,” the Clinton
administration’s proposed health-care overhaul. When the plan collapsed in late
1994, the group snapped back sharply.
Signs of a weakening U.S. economy could
give investors another reason to return to healthcare. Historically, it has
tended to outperform during downturns.
marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-gvtydy-ykyklyltw-r/
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Auto
giant's collapse sparks recession fears in haunting parallel to 2008 crash:
'Canary in the coal mine'
Published: 03:19, 30
September 2025 | Updated: 13:42, 30 September 2025
Another
auto company bankruptcy has set alarm bells ringing that the US economy could
be heading toward a repeat of the 2008 financial meltdown.
This
time, the trouble isn't mortgages — it's car loans, which have never been
bigger at $1.7 trillion. That's not as high as home loans were in 2008, but
experts warn it could be enough to trigger a domino effect reaching
mortgages.
More
Americans are stretched thin, earning less in real terms and struggling to make
ends meet, forcing lenders to hand out riskier loans just to keep car sales
alive.
Millions
are already behind on subprime car loans, which experts say could be the first
warning sign of broader debt problems and eventual mortgage defaults.
The
warning signs are stacking up. First Brands, a manufacturer of filters, brakes,
wipers, and lighting systems, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday
night.
Its
collapse comes just two weeks after subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings went bankrupt and shut down, and
follows June's Chapter 11 filing by Marelli,
a supplier for Nissan and Chrysler.
Experts
told the Daily Mail that these bankruptcies are another part of an auto
industry flashing danger signals that could spill into the broader
economy.
Record-high
car prices, ballooning consumer debt, and tariffs have analysts drawing
comparisons to the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, when banks flooded the
market with risky housing loans that Americans couldn't afford.
That
year, 3.1million Americans lost their homes to foreclosure, and the economy
collapsed as consumer spending dried up.
Huge
brands such as Circuit City, Linens 'n Things, and Boscovs shuttered stores
while financial institutions Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Washington
Mutual fell apart.
Today,
the same dynamics are appearing in car loans, with lenders approving financing
for buyers already stretched to the limit.
'Low-income
car buyers are getting hit the hardest right now,' Erin Witte, director of
consumer protection at Consumer Federation of America, told the Daily Mail.
'In
the Tricolor collapse, many borrowers suddenly lost access to their cars, their
trade-ins weren't paid off, and messy loan transfers could even lead to
wrongful repossessions or damaged credit.
'It
shows just how fragile the auto finance market has become.'
While
the $1.7 trillion in car loans is far below the $10.6 trillion in mortgage debt
at the 2008 peak, it's still the largest consumer debt category after mortgages
and has been growing steadily.
'The
biggest issue is affordability,' David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar, told
the Daily Mail. 'And the big question mark is how much tariff costs will get
passed to consumers.'
Experts
say high prices for cars will only be worsened by President
Donald Trump's 25 percent automotive tariffs.
So
far, the automakers have mostly shielded customers from the import tax by
eating billions of dollars in previous profits.
GM
estimates it will pay between $4billion and $5billion this year, while Ford
expects a $2billion hit.
But
instead of raising sticker prices, they've absorbed the costs or cut jobs —
even as vehicle prices have already soared 30 percent since 2019.
Even
without tariffs, the cost of owning a car has already driven Americans into
record debt.
The
average new vehicle now sells for $49,968, which means buyers have typical
monthly payments over $750.
More
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
This Startup
Wants to Put Its Brain-Computer Interface in the Apple Vision Pro
California-based Cognixion is launching a clinical trial to allow
paralyzed patients with speech disorders the ability to communicate without an
invasive brain implant.
Oct 1, 2025 9:00 AM
Startup Cognixion announced today that it is
launching a clinical trial of its wearable brain-computer
interface technology integrated with the Apple Vision Pro to
help paralyzed people with speech disorders communicate with their thoughts.
Cognixion is one of several companies, including Elon Musk’s Neuralink, that is developing a
brain-computer interface, or BCI, a system that captures brain signals and
translates them into commands to control external devices.
While Neuralink and others are working on implants that are
surgically placed in the head, Cognixion’s
technology is noninvasive. The Santa Barbara, California, company is
testing both a software component (an augmented reality BCI app) and a hardware
add-on (a custom headband that can read brain signals) with the Vision Pro. The
trial will include up to 10 participants in the US with speech impairments due
to paralysis from spinal cord injury, stroke, traumatic brain injury, or
amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as ALS or Lou Gehrig’s disease.
Cognixion’s goal is to get BCI technology to as many people as
possible, and it sees the Vision Pro as a way to do that. “In order to
democratize access, you need to do it in such a way that's the least risky and
the most acceptable for adoption for the majority of people,” says Andreas
Forsland, the company’s CEO.
Forsland started Cognixion after his mother got sick with
pneumonia and was intubated in the ICU. She was fully conscious of everything
going on around her but was unable to speak; Forsland became her communication
partner when she was in the hospital.
“As a result of that, I experienced tremendous breakdowns of
communication between her and her care providers, where I had to intervene,” he
says. He started thinking about how people with speech motor disabilities need
better ways to communicate.
The company has already designed its own headset, called the
Axon-R, and tested it with ALS patients earlier this year. Its custom software
uses generative AI models that train on an individual user’s speech patterns.
Paired together, the technology enabled participants to “speak” through the
headset at a rate approaching normal conversation speed. That study showed that
patients could comfortably use the BCI for a few hours a day, several times a
week.
Now, Cognixion is bringing its AI communication app to the Vision
Pro, which Forsland says has more functionality than the purpose-built Axon-R.
“The Vision Pro gives you all of your apps, the app store, everything you want
to do,” he says.
Apple opened the door to BCI integration in May, when it announced
a new protocol to allow users with severe mobility disabilities to control
the iPhone, iPad, and Vision Pro without physical movement. Another BCI
company, Synchron,
whose implant is inserted into a blood vessel adjacent to the brain, has also
integrated its system with the Vision Pro. (Apple is not known to be developing
its own BCI.)
In Cognixion’s trial, the company has swapped out Apple’s headband
for its own, which is embedded with six electroencephalographic, or EEG,
sensors. These collect information from the brain’s visual and parietal cortex,
located at the back of the head. Specifically, Cognixion’s system identifies
visual fixation signals, which occur when a person is maintaining their gaze on
an object. This allows users to select from a menu of options in the interface
using mental attention alone. A neural computing pack worn at the hip processes
brain data outside of the Vision Pro.
“The philosophy of our approach is around reducing the amount of
burden that is being generated by the person’s communication needs,” says Chris
Ullrich, Cognixion’s chief technology officer.
More
This Startup Wants
to Put Its Brain-Computer Interface in the Apple Vision Pro | WIRED
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and the first weekend of the US government partial shutdown. What
mischief will Washington, District of Crooks think up for next week’s
tribulations? Have a great weekend everyone.
I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more
dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be
paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a
large scale.
Thomas Jefferson
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